EUA: o estranho caso do desaparecimento do consumidor - the Sovereign Investor

Curioso mesmo: se os consumidores americanos desaparecem (maneira de dizer), o que é que os chineses vão fazer?
Passar a consumir tudo aquilo que eles produzem para o mercado americano?
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

America’s Dangerous Addiction
By Jocelynn Smith, Sr. Managing Editor
The Sovereign Investor, August 20, 2016

The American consumer is in trouble.

The first sign that consumer health is fading comes out of the retail sector. We’ve seen retailer after retailer this earnings season either cut its outlook or slash its store count.

Just this quarter:

Macy’s announced that it’s closing more than 100 stores.

Target suffered its first same-store sales drop in more than two years and cut its full-year forecast due to declining sales.

Gap is planning to close roughly 50 stores and cut its outlook for the full year.

J.C. Penney reported weak sales and yet another quarterly loss.

Nordstrom suffered its first quarterly revenue decline in seven years.
Sure, I’ll give you that everyone seems pleased with Wal-Mart’s report that same-stores sales rose 1.6% compared to guidance for a 1% increase, but that doesn’t seem quite enough to get excited about. If shoppers aren’t showing up at Macy’s, Target, Gap and J.C. Penney, it certainly doesn’t look like they’re making a mad dash to Wal-Mart to spend their money.

Part of the decline in traditional sales can be blamed on Amazon and the shift among consumers to buy more online. They enjoy the convenience and ease of shopping online — that way you avoid traffic and other shoppers — combined with cheap, fast shipping.

But the frightening side of the decline comes from the fact that the American consumer is running low on cash. Despite the constantly touted rebound in the jobs market, Americans aren’t making nearly enough to support themselves.

In fact, they’re going back to bad habits. The New York Fed announced earlier this month that U.S. household debt jumped by $35 billion to total $12.3 trillion in the second quarter, with the bulk of the increase coming from auto loans and credit cards.

After everything came crashing down in 2008, consumers worked hard to cut debt from 2008 to 2013, with the total dropping by $1.5 trillion. But since the start of 2014, we’ve been desperate to spend, but don’t have the money. In less than two years, we’ve nearly returned to the 2008 peak.

As Chad Shoop stated at the beginning of August, the consumer is the last pillar supporting a very slowly growing economy. And that support is being built on a mountain of debt. That’s not exactly the sound foundation we could hope for when it comes to seeing stellar future growth.

Eventually, it’s all going to come tumbling down.

Uma outra maldicao do petroleo: barril acima ou abaixo de 100 dolares

As consequências, num e noutro caso, são obviamente diferentes, e não apenas para produtores (rentistas) e consumidores (vítimas?) dessas políticas de transferência de renda para uns e outros.
Um petróleo muito barato, pode, obviamente, derrubar ditaduras populistas e demagógicas, mas também impedir democracias de desenvolver suas próprias fontes de combustíveis fósseis ou alternativas (renováveis), que são, por definição, mais caras.
Mas um petróleo muito caro vai dar, justamente, sobrevida a essas petroditaduras, além de extraordinários lucros para algumas gigantes da área (o que esquerdistas ingênuos sempre acham indecente). Também tem o poder de desenvolver energias alternativas, ou formas mais baratas de desenvolver derivativos e alternativas.
Em todo caso, esta matéria de um administrador de investimentos é interessante pelas informações que contém.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

The Hidden Cost of Oil
By Jeff D. Opdyke, Editor of Profit Seeker
The Sovereign Investor, July 8, 2014

Dear Paulo Roberto,

Editor’s Note: This article is the second in our “Best of Sovereign Investor Daily” series. It was originally published on December 18, 2012. All the information below is unchanged from the original publication.

In the early spring of 2011, events unfolded 6,400 miles east of New York City that I am confident most Americans missed. It had the effect of robbing the wallet of everyone reading these words.

During a televised speech to a tense nation, King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz announced to his rapt audience that the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, by royal decree, would give to all civil servants and military personnel two months of salary. University students would receive a two-month stipend. Job seekers would receive the equivalent of $533 a month while hunting for work. Minimum wages were increased; 60,000 law enforcement jobs were created; and 500,000 new houses were to be built across the kingdom at a cost of nearly $70 billion. And that was just the beginning of a $130 billion spending program…

It was all part of a well-orchestrated — and exceedingly expensive — effort by Saudi Arabia to quell months of protests that had roiled the already-anxious kingdom and which were tied to much-broader clashes across the Middle East and North Africa.

King Abdullah had, in effect, bought the peace — for the time being, at least.

For most Americans, the king’s speech seems entirely irrelevant. But it impacts every single one of us every day.

For you see, the costs that King Abdullah imposed on Saudi Arabia that March day suddenly changed the dynamics of the oil market. A new cost structure was added to each barrel of oil pulled from beneath the desert sands — a social cost. And so long as tensions exist across the region between Arabic leaders and local populations that feel oppressed, that social cost is going nowhere but up.

It’s why those who call for lower oil prices are overlooking a crucial piece of the oil market.

I’ve read a lot of jibber-jabber recently about the miniscule costs countries like Saudi Arabia have for lifting oil out of the ground. Some Saudi fields purportedly have lifting costs of just $2 a barrel. Russia’s lifting costs in some instances are said to top no more than $15.

That may be true. But only the addle-brained believe that either of those countries can profitably sell oil anywhere near those levels. They can’t sell oil profitably at $50 a barrel. And it’s because of the social costs.

Buying the peace is how oppressive governments bribe their people and maintain social order — no easy task in parts of the world where religious minorities often rule over very angry majorities comprised of the religious opposition. In many of those countries, human misery is rife and poverty rates range as high as 60% … and hungry, impoverished people are the foot-soldiers of revolution, as Tunisian, Egyptian and Libyan leaders have learned.

Saudi Arabia and Russia are the world’s #1 and #2 oil-producing countries. They’re also political economies that generate lots of animosity and, on occasion, anti-government protests. To assuage the anger that bubbles up — or to keep it below a boil in the first place — both countries throw around huge sums of riyals and rubles.

And the question is: Where does the money come from?

In Russia, oil generates more than 45% of government revenues. In Saudi Arabia, it’s up near 75%.

Leaders in both countries have no choice but to rely heavily on oil to fund the civic largess … which means they have every incentive to manipulate oil prices through production.

Prior to its $130 billion social-spending spree, Saudi Arabia needed oil prices somewhere north of $70 to balance the kingdom’s budget, according to the International Monetary Fund. Now the per-barrel cost is reportedly approaching $100. Russia needs something close to $120.

To be clear, I am picking on the Saudis and the Russians simply because of the size of their oil industries and the political issues with which those countries struggle. But the reality is that social costs also play a similarly large role in Bahrain, Kuwait, Venezuela, Iran and elsewhere, where oil revenue accounts for up to 90% of domestic income.

The United Arab Emirates, for instance, needs oil prices in the $85 range to balance a budget larded with social programs. Tiny Bahrain needs about $119.

$100 a Barrel is Middle-of-the-Road
This is where the argument goes astray that American energy independence — still a giant question mark — will drop oil prices to $50 or below. Unless America is going to produce enough oil for the world — and, honestly, we will never even produce enough for ourselves — it won’t control prices.

Oil prices sustained at $50 a barrel would crimp the ability of oppressive governments to quiet the angry masses. That would lead to potential revolt or overthrow, which would have the perverse effect of pushing oil prices back up, since the risk exists that a regime intolerant of the West would take power and drastically reduce oil supplies to undermine Western economies.

Thus, any time oil prices get so low that they begin to cause societal tinges wherever governments lean on oil to cover their social costs, those countries will naturally rely on the power of the spigot. All they need do is clamp off production until prices reach a more-adequate level.

$100 is Oil’s New Floor

Take a look at this graph. It’s oil as priced in the Middle East. I’ve highlighted $100 to make the point that it’s clear where the floor for oil rests. It’s not a coincidence that oil is bouncing around the range that leading oil nations need to balance budgets that are overloaded with social costs.

Over the last two years, in fact, Middle Eastern oil has traded below $80 a barrel for just 16 days, and that was largely during the overreaction to European debt woes this past summer. More impressive is the fact that these sustained prices above $100 have occurred even as the top three oil nations have been producing barrels at record levels.

Yes; it’s true that U.S. benchmark crude — West Texas Intermediate — will often trade at cheaper prices, and sometimes down into the $80 or $90 range. But oil is priced regionally all over the world. And if oil in the Middle East were to push continually higher from here as nations pay for their social programs, and then U.S. prices would march higher too.

The Future of Oil
I listen to what the disbelievers write when they say oil prices are headed lower. I think about their rationale for oil at $50 or below. But ultimately, their arguments are simplistic and too often built on the nationalistic hoopla about America’s nascent oil renaissance (and there are so many misconceptions about American oil that even their rationale is seriously flawed).

Even if some fields in America can produce oil at a sub-$50 cost, that oil is still subject to global pricing. And when you have oppressive nations spending money furiously to maintain social order, there’s simply no way oil prices spend any time near $50 a barrel outside of a major, global financial upset.

If you recognize that, and if, in turn, you litter your portfolio with energy-related stocks — oil-field servicers, drillers, rig owners, exploration companies and the energy majors — you will protect your standard-of-living as oil prices inexorably rise over time.

Until next time, stay Sovereign …

Jeff D. Opdyke
Editor, Profit Seeker

Editor’s Note: Cheap oil continues to be little more than a dream for Americans, with crude prices pushing ever higher. In the 18 months that have passed since this article was originally released, we’ve had new civil unrest in Iraq, Russia thumbing its nose at the world as it swallows up Crimea, and Venezuela is struggling through economic collapse — all factors determined to keep oil prices high so these countries can stay afloat.  With Middle East and other oil-producing countries dependent on black gold to keep the wheels of government turning and the people placated, the days of cheap oil are long gone.

O segredo bancario suico ainda tem futuro? Uma analise de um corretor de investimentos

A Suíça não é mais aquela: pressionada de todos os lados, teve de entrar em "acordo" com os principais países europeus e, principalmente, com os Estados Unidos, para que seus bancos não fossem punidos e ela mesma fosse inscrita na lista negra dos paraísos fiscais. Agora, pode haver transferência de informações bancárias, desde que haja algum fundamento legal para a requisição do Estado demandante.
Melhor salvar os dedos, entregando os anéis, portanto...
Vejamos o que diz este operador de mercado de investimentos mais ou menos legais...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Is France Preparing to Invade Switzerland? By Bob Bauman JD, Offshore and Asset Protection Editor The Sovereign Investor Dear Paulo Roberto, For the third time in 25 years, the people of Switzerland have overwhelmingly voted to maintain their conscription army. On September 22, 73% of voters from 26 Swiss cantons rejected a referendum that pacifists and left-wing parties advocated to abolish mandatory military service, which requires part-time army service from each male citizen between the ages of 18 to 34. Women may serve voluntarily. To believe Swiss military officials, that army may be needed to defend against an invasion by France. Days after the referendum, it was revealed that the Swiss army earlier in August had conducted a military exercise/war game based on a hypothetical invasion by a bankrupt France trying to get back their “stolen” money hidden in Swiss bank accounts. Taking into account recent events, should the Swiss be more wary of France … or U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder?

Beginning in the 1930s, Swiss banking practices and laws ensured complete privacy – and, thus, secrecy – for clients, regardless of nationality or the laws of the client’s home country. That era effectively came to an end a few days ago, when the governments of the U.S. and Switzerland struck a deal that allows some Swiss banks to pay fines to avoid or defer prosecution for their U.S. customers’ tax evasion. As longtime readers will know, this reform process was promoted because of a 2009 lawsuit by Eric Holder’s U.S. Department of Justice against Swiss banking giant UBS for helping Americans keep assets in undisclosed Swiss accounts. The threat of U.S. lawsuits even destroyed the oldest bank in Switzerland, Wegelin & Co., founded in 1741. Holder forced change on the reluctant Swiss, and the unintended consequence of his strong-arm tactics is probably to their benefit. The reality is that the bullying U.S. could have frozen Switzerland out of the global financial system had it not complied. The uncertainty caused by that possibility effectively ruled Switzerland out as a recommended destination for offshore banking. A global survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers found that the major attraction for a private bank’s new customers is its reputation. Fortunately, in spite of the UBS scandal, Switzerland’s solid financial reputation still allows this alpine nation to serve as “banker to the world.” Indeed, these days, good judgment and reliability are banking traits more sought after than ever before. Even considering its many recent international difficulties, Switzerland remains as one of the best all-around asset and financial havens in the world.  The Gold Standard in Asset Protection For centuries, the Swiss have acted as banker to the world, acquiring a reputation for integrity and financial privacy. It is also an attractive residence for wealthy people to reside, which may explain why Switzerland is home to nearly 10% of all millionaires in the world. All these Swiss reforms have produced what Sovereign Society Executive Publisher Erika Nolan has rightfully called “a silver lining” for Americans banking in Switzerland. Freedom Alliance members received a July special report explaining this new world of private banking. My considered opinion of Switzerland is that it remains the best place for investment management, U.S. tax-deferred annuities and life insurance – all aspects of sound asset protection. In these services and many others, the Swiss excel. The Sovereign Society respects U.S. tax laws and U.S. reporting requirements. We also value financial privacy, a concept that died in America with the PATRIOT Act. Switzerland still offers a statutory guarantee of privacy for law abiding and tax paying persons from all nations. The Sovereign Society has existing arrangements with reputable, independent, SEC-registered Swiss asset managers who are able to place American accounts at leading Swiss banks. Switzerland may be neutral in politics, but it’s far from flavorless. The fusion of German, French and Italian influence has formed a robust national culture, and the country’s alpine landscapes have enough zing to reinvigorate even the most jaded traveler. My two youngest children, Vicky and Jim, and I will never forget traveling by car from Dijon, France, to Geneva on a frigid, snowy January morning, in awe of the hundreds of rainbows produced by snow showers falling from a million tree branches as the sun arose. Goethe summed up Switzerland succinctly as a combination of “the colossal and the well-ordered.” You can be sure that your clean, impressive train will be on time. The tidy, “just-so” precision of the Swiss is tempered by the lofty splendor of those landscapes. There’s a lot more here than just trillions of dollars and euros. The Confederation of Switzerland and its people are survivors, and rich ones at that. This nation manages nearly one-tenth of the world’s offshore cash and assets, over US$4 trillion for people all over the world, and they have done this successfully for centuries. Despite two World Wars, for 215 years, as European empires rose and fell, Switzerland’s official neutrality, defense of its sovereignty and banking prowess have created a world-recognized island of financial stability.  Faithfully yours, Bob Bauman JD Editor, Offshore Confidential The Sovereign Investor

Uruguai: um paraíso financeiro? - Bob Bauman (Sovereign Investor)

Os EUA estão "apertando" -- para usar um termo moderado -- a Suíça, em razão de suas regras laxistas em matéria fiscal e tributária e, sobretudo, por causa de seu regime bancário, baseado no segredo bancário e no anonimato das contas individuais dos estrangeiros. Ou seja, a Suíça já não é mais o que era...
Os investidores americanos se voltam, assim para o Uruguai, um recurso já conhecido de evasores argentinos, brasileiros e vários outros na região, com muitas facilidades financeiras e total segredo de valores e transações envolvidas.
A matéria abaixo, de um consultor que quer uma comissão sobre o seu dinheiro, pretende ensinar os americanos a recorrer aos bancos uruguaios, em lugar dos suíços. Sorte deles...
 Paulo Roberto de Almeida

As Swiss Banks Close Their Doors, Look to Uruguay
By Bob Bauman JD, Offshore and Asset Protection Editor

The “Switzerland of Latin America” – that’s the phrase I used six months ago when I wrote to you from Punta del Este, Uruguay. I was referring to the delightful South American country I was visiting for the first time.

But that catchy phrase was not mine: 61 years ago, in the shattered wake of World War II, Uruguay was described as the "Switzerland of the Americas" in a 1951 New York Times article.

Uruguay earned that unusual name because of its popularity as a safe haven for capital and precious metals fleeing Europe at the time, and for its adoption of careful, Swiss-inspired banking laws and customs.

When I wrote about Uruguay back in March, I got some serious grief from good friends in Switzerland, claiming I had abandoned their country, which I had always called the world’s leading offshore financial center. Well, my friends, I still say that … but Switzerland and the Swiss have got some major problems of their own making – and anyone planning personal financial activities has to keep them in mind.

Money Taking Flight

In the three years since the tawdry UBS-American tax evasion scandal was exposed, Swiss government politicians have tried to shield UBS and other threatened Swiss banks by capitulating to U.S. IRS pressures, too often at the expense of American clients. Thousands of U.S. names have been turned over to the IRS.

In effect, this has all but repealed the 1934 Bank Secrecy Law, ironically even as Swiss courts have upheld that law. As a self-serving byproduct of this, thousands of innocent Americans with Swiss bank accounts suddenly found themselves dumped in a wave of unjustified financial ethnic cleansing by nervous Swiss banks.

The truth is, there are still very solid Swiss banks that do welcome American clients. We know who they are, and we can arrange accounts with very little trouble for our Sovereign Society members.

But Swiss banking experts themselves openly now say that Swiss banks must lure affluent clients from emerging markets or face a slow death as the pursuit of tax dodgers by the U.S. IRS and European tax-collection hounds results in more fleeing assets.

Western Europeans may pull as much as US$139 billion, or 15% of their holdings, from Swiss banks, claims Herbert Hensle of Cap Gemini SA. Bank Sarasin & Cie AG reported last week that private clients withdrew US$308 billion from Swiss locations in the 12 months leading up to June 2012.

Switzerland built the world’s biggest offshore wealth center during an era of “black money” that ended when the U.S. sued UBS three years ago. Many of the highest fee-generating European and U.S. customers are withdrawing funds as the hunt for tax evaders widens.

As many as 100 Swiss banks will vanish, according to Vontobel Chief Executive Officer Zeno Staub. (Vontobel is one of the cooperative Swiss banks with which we work).

Solid and Confidential

By comparison, Uruguay’s banking system is solid, appealing to investors and depositors from around the world who seek a safe haven that also offers tax advantages. Since January 1, 2008, almost 400 banks have failed in the United States … meanwhile, Uruguay’s banks have operated without problems. While the U.S. GDP has shrunk, Uruguay’s continues to grow.

Unlike too many other offshore banks around the world, banks in Uruguay welcome American clients. Most banks offer e-banking, but a personal visit is required to open an account.

Uruguay’s financial reputation has made it an important regional financial center for all Latin America. There are 11 private banks, plus the government central bank, Banco de la República (BROU), that strictly supervises all banks in the country.

The private banks are totally or partially owned by leading American or European financial institutions. Banco Itaú and Lloyds TSB in Montevideo usually accept non-resident American clients in their retail banking branches. In addition, attesting to its regional banking role, there are over 30 representative offices of foreign banks.

Financial Privacy Guaranteed By Law

Unlike the United States, where the PATRIOT Act has destroyed financial privacy, Uruguay’s protection is based on a bank secrecy statute (Law #15,322, 1982) that forbids banks to share information with anyone – including the government of Uruguay and foreign governments.

The only exceptions allowed are in cases involving issues of alimony, child support, or alleged crimes such as foreign tax evasion and fraud. Even then, information can be shared only after obtaining a local court order.

The country does not automatically exchange tax or bank account information with the U.S., Canada or any other government. Uruguay does comply with Article 26 of the Organization for Economic and Community Development’s (OECD) model standards for tax information exchange requests. That is, banks may exchange information upon proof of foreign tax evasion or tax fraud.

In keeping with current international “political correctness,” Uruguay’s government does not want the country labeled as a “tax haven.” Nevertheless, Uruguay is, in fact, an offshore tax haven that imposes very few taxes on foreign residents living here.

Voce quer virar irlandes? Facil, facil: basta 1 milhao de euros...

Enfim, estou falando de um irlandês sério, não daqueles beberrões inconvenientes, que vivem contando piadas indecentes nos pubs de cerveja morna...
Não é difícil: com a quebradeira geral do país, basta colocar um milhãozinho de euros, em alguma forma de investimento, que voce já tem a oportunidade de tornar-se irlandês e de conseguir um desejado passaporte comunitário. Infelizmente, eu não tenho, mas mesmo que tivesse, não seria minha intenção virar irlandês...
Mas acredito que o programa está aberto mesmo aos afrodescendentes.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida 

The Great Irish Opportunity By Bob Bauman JD, Offshore and Asset Protection Editor The Sovereign Investor, May 28, 2012 Dear Paulo Roberto, These days, Greece is an economic disaster area – but it’s not alone. Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland are also suffering from the same EU financial indigestion. A few years ago, the booming Irish economy was the envy of Europe. It earned the nickname “the Celtic Tiger” – and for good reason. However, times have changed. Today, Ireland’s national economy is floundering. The Irish are living through what some regard as the greatest national crisis since the 1916 Easter Uprising against British rule. Then, the issue was Irish national sovereignty, now it’s fiscal and financial sovereignty.

Celtic Tiger’s Problems Create Bargains But along with those problems comes a great opportunity – both in terms of investment and the possibility of holding an Irish passport – one of the most coveted passports in the world. Like many countries, Ireland was hit hard in the global economic downturn. Between the beginning of the crisis and the end of 2010, Ireland’s GDP had contracted by 14% and unemployment levels surged to 14%, where they remain. However, before 2008, Irish property prices had skyrocketed more rapidly than in any other developed economy in the world. Since that 2007 peak, average house prices have plunged 47%. But that government figure may be a serious underestimate. Ronan McMahon of Pathfinder, an Irish real estate expert, says he has seen declines of as much as 90%. There has been virtually no activity in the Irish property market since 2007 and prices continue to fall, with no bottom in sight. In an effort to save its faltering banks, the government set up the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA), now dubbed by the Irish people as the “Bad Bank.” NAMA took over an estimated $100 billion in troubled commercial property and development loans from six major financial institutions. This “Bad Bank” now controls more than 10,000 foreclosed properties, including residential, commercial, resort and hotels, development land and even pubs. But, so far, NAMA has offered very few of these properties for sale, casting a long shadow of unsold inventory over an already brutalized market. And, so, we come to the creation of an opportunity for great bargains. With the Irish economy’s continued troubles, NAMA is under pressure to sell off its remaining inventory soon, which means investors can pick up some real bargains. A list of available properties can be obtained from NAMA on their website. Become an Irish Citizen The Irish government has also started a new program to attract both money and wealthy individuals from outside the EU. The program offers special immediate residence visas to foreign individuals willing to invest in Ireland. This investment can eventually lead to full citizenship, and Irish citizenship opens the door to full personal and commercial access to all 27 countries in the European Union. Under the new program, potential investor immigrants have these choices (all numbers are required minimums): • Make a one-time payment of €500,000 ($666,000) to a public project benefiting the arts, sports, health or education. • Make a €2 million ($2.7 million) investment in a low interest immigrant investor bond. The investment is to be held for a minimum of five years. The bond cannot be traded but must be held to maturity. • Invest €1 million ($1.3 million) in venture capital funding in an Irish business for a minimum of three years. • Make a €1 million mixed investment in 50% property and 50% government securities. Special consideration may be given to those purchasing property owned by the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA). In such cases, a single €1m investment in property may be sufficient. There is a separate program is for foreigners with entrepreneurial ability who wish to start a business in an innovation area of the economy with funding of at least €75,000 (US$99,000). They will be given a two-year residence period for the purposes of developing the business. Information is available at the Ministry of Justice webpage. Emails can be directed to investmentandstartup@justice.ie/. Even if you don’t want to invest in the new visa program, you may be eligible for an official Irish passport if your parents or grandparents had Irish citizenship. The Irish passport is one of the most sought-after travel documents in the world. Remarkably, with a resident population of only 4.7 million, Ireland has many millions of current passports in worldwide circulation. Complete information about obtaining residence and citizenship in Ireland is available from the official Irish Citizens Information Board website. Tel: 0761 07 4000 (Monday to Friday, 9am to 9pm). Now is the time to invest in the “Celtic Tiger.” Faithfully yours, Bob Bauman P.S. Obtaining a second passport can be a very important cornerstone of any asset protection plan. With our freedoms here at home eroding by the day, it’s now more important than ever to make sure you have a plan in place. No matter who wins this November’s elections, government attacks on our freedom and wealth are just going to get worse. Don’t wait to start planning until it’s too late. Click here for my latest video to see how you can get started protecting yourself today.