O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

quinta-feira, 5 de setembro de 2019

Chers amis Français: Lula n'est pas un prisionner politique; c'est un politique incarcéré pour grosse corruption

Brésil : dix vérités sur Lula, à dire à Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Valeurs Actuelles, 04/09/2019 
Chapô
 https://www.valeursactuelles.com/clubvaleurs/monde/bresil-dix-verites-sur-lula-dire-jean-luc-melenchon-110410
Jean-Luc Mélenchon va rencontrer ce jeudi 5 septembre l’ancien président Lula da Silva incarcéré pour corruption et blanchiment d’argent, dans sa prison aménagée de Curitiba. Petit rappel (non exhaustif) des charges passées et à venir, des témoignages qui l’accablent et de ses faux-pas.

1/ Lula n’est pas Mandela

Difficile de nier la popularité de Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 73 ans, ancien président brésilien (2003-2010), co-fondateur du PT (Parti des Travailleurs) et icône de la gauche sud-américaine mais comparer son incarcération aux vingt-sept années d’emprisonnement de l’ex-Président sud-africain Nelson Mandela, est un édifiant déni des raisons de son incarcération.
Lula, comme le surnomment les Brésiliens, n’est pas un prisonnier politique. Il a été incarcéré pour avoir a été lourdement condamné pour corruption et blanchiment d’argent, d’abord en première instance le 12 juillet 2017. Cette première affaire, dite du « triplex », est liée au scandale LavaJato (lavage express). Il s’agit de la plus vaste affaire de pots-de-vin révélée au Brésil qui a ébranlé toute la classe politique depuis mars 2014 où l’opération a été diligentée par le juge Sergio Moro alors en exercice à Curitiba, au sud du pays.
Dans l’affaire du « triplex », l’ex président a été reconnu comme le bénéficiaire d’un vaste appartement en échange de faveurs accordées à un groupe de BTP. Cette condamnation en première instance était de 9 ans et 6 mois de prison ; peine alourdie en seconde instance (avril 2018) à 12 ans et 3 mois, puis réduite à 10 ans et 8 mois, le 23 avril dernier. Entre temps, le 6 février 2019, Lula a été condamné à 12 ans et 11mois de prison dans une autre affaire dite «  d’Atibaia » également liée à l’affaire Lava Jato, encore une fois pour des pots-de-vin, avec une condamnation pour corruption passive et blanchiment d’argent.
Lula purge sa peine dans une « cellule » aménagée à Curitiba. Il est inculpé dans huit autres affaires liées à Lava Jato dont au moins six pour lesquelles il risque de lourdes condamnations.

2/ Lula n’est pas « la victime » du juge Sergio Moro

En 2017, c’est l’ex juge Sergio Moro, aujourd’hui Ministre de la justice et de la sécurité publique qui a scellé la chute de l’ex président Lula. Il passe pour le « tombeur » de Lula mais il est aussi le juge anticorruption qui a fait trembler toute la classe politique brésilienne. L’affaire Lava Jato a conduit à plus de 200 arrestations de politiciens et grands patrons (énergie avec Petrobras, BTP et ingénierie avec Odebrecht, OAS…). Tous les partis ont été concernés mais en premier lieu ceux qui détenaient le pouvoir au cours des dernières décennies, soit le PT de l’ex président Lula da Silva et de l’ex-présidente Dilma Rousseff et leurs alliées, principalement le PMDB (rebaptisé PMD) de l’ex Président Michel Temer.
Le plus célèbre juge anticorruption brésilien, longtemps vu comme un héros, n’est pas le seul homme clé de l’affaire Lava Jato qui doit son succès à la ténacité d’une palanquée d’enquêteurs et côté justice, une vingtaine de procureurs.
Lula n’est pas « la victime » de Sergio Moro : « Lula a été condamné par neuf juges de trois instances différentes, dont la plus haute juridiction du pays, avec des charges retenues qui sont extrêmement graves » rappelle l’expert Thialgo de Aragao, d’Arko Advice.

3/ L’avenir de Lula est judiciaire

Déjà lourdement condamné à deux reprises et par plusieurs juridictions, l’ex-président Lula da Silva incarcéré à Curitiba, n’en a pas fini avec la justice. Il est encore l’objet de huit poursuites judiciaires dont six pour des faits extrêmement graves de corruption, blanchiment d’argent, tentative d’entrave à la justice. Ceux qui estiment encore qu’il a été jusqu’ici condamné sans preuve, devraient lire plus attentivement les procès v et compte-rendus des motivations des juges (exemple : le rapport de l’affaire dite du triplex argumenté sur 230 pages).

4/ Le jour où Lula a perdu toute crédibilité

Favori des sondages lors de la campagne électorale de 2018, l’ex président Lula da Silva n’en était pas moins considéré comme « coupable de corruption » par une large majorité des Brésiliens  (entre 56 et 70% selon les instituts de sondage). Le jour où Lula a perdu sa crédibilité auprès du peuple brésilien ne fut pas celui de son arrestation mais celui de la diffusion d’une écoute judiciaire d’une conversation entre lui et Dilma Rousseff alors présidente, le 17 mars 2016. Leur conversation plus qu’embarrassante atteste d’un incroyable double-jeu et révèle que la nomination de l’ex-président Lula au gouvernement avait pour seul  objectif de lui éviter la prison. Cette révélation avait alors soulevé une vague de protestations au Brésil et « nombre d’experts politiques estiment qu’à partir de ce moment, le mythe Lula s’est effrondré » rappelle un professeur de sciences politiques de la Fondation Getulio Vargas (FGV).

5/ Lorsque son entourage de gauche l’accable

Arrêté par la police fédérale et placé en détention le 26 septembre 2016, Antonio Palocci, 57 ans, ancien trotskiste du mouvement Libelu et ami de Lula a mis longtemps avant de « se mettre à table » mais son témoigne est à ce jour, l’un des plus accablants à l’encontre de l’ex président.
Lula lui a longtemps témoigné son estime, même après son incarcération, à ce fidèle et membre fondateur du PT. Il avait alors toute sa bienveillance, étant alors cité comme ce « camarade de trente ans » qu’il avait choisi comme ministre des Finances et qui fut premier ministre du gouvernement Dilma Rousseff (chef de la Casa civil). Après ses révélations fracassantes en 2017, c’est la seule fois où Lula s’est laissé à exprimer ses sentiments, se disant « abattu ». La déposition de Palocci -qui a lui-même multiplié son patrimoine par vingt en quatre ans !- est dévastatrice pour Lula et beaucoup trop précise pour être sans fondement.
Antonio Palocci assure que Lula n’ignorait rien de la corruption menée au cœur de Petrobras, utilisé comme un méga-firme de pots-de-vin au profit de son parti et de ses alliés. Palocci « accuse » aussi Lula d’être intervenu lors des campagnes électorales, dans les contrats Odebrecht, géant du BTP laminé par la corruption. Selon Palocci, ce groupe aurait rétribué 82 millions d’euros au PT, distribué des « cadeaux » à Lula comme à l’Institut qui porte son nom.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon arrive au Brésil au moment où la déposition de l’ex-bras droit de Lula fait à nouveau la Une des journaux brésiliens. La vidéo de la déposition vient en effet d’être rendue publique par le nouveau juge fédéral  de la 13 e cour fédérale de Curitiba, Luiz Antonio Bonat. Ces nouvelles révélations sont si édifiantes qu’elles ont fait éclore le hashtag #showDoPalocci sur les réseaux sociaux. Un spectacle ou plutôt un grand déballage qui augure de nouvelles instructions ? Palocci accuse plus précisément Dilma Rousseff et d’autres proches de Lula (Gleisi Hoffman et Lindberg) d’avoir reçu directement des pots-de-vin. Et le paeti ? Selon lui, le PT aurait reçu plus de 59 millions d’euros (270 millions de réaux) de pots-de-vin.

6/ Lula n’est pas le « sauveur du Brésil »

Lula peut-il se féliciter d’avoir sorti de la pauvreté « 28 millions de Brésiliens »et d’avoir permis à «  36 millions » d’autres d’accéder à la classe moyenne telle qu’on la définit en Amérique latine ? Sans doute mais il doit alors aussi assumer un sombre héritage. Sous Lula, le Brésil a connu une croissance économique sans précédent, faisant passer le géant sud-américain pour un bon élève parmi les émergents, à 7,5% de croissance en 2010. En raison d’une corruption institutionnalisée et d’une mauvaise gestion, les années de la gouvernance PT (ses mandats puis la présidence de Dilma Rousseff) ont cependant mené le Brésil à sa perte, à la pire récession de son histoire. Près de la moitié des Brésiliens qu’on a dit « sortis » de la pauvreté, vivent aujourd’hui en situation précaire.

7/ oubliez le « président des pauvres »

Si un mythe est tenace auprès des sympathisants de Lula, c’est celui-là, « le président des pauvres ». Mais l’ultra-conservateur Jair Bolsonaro n’est pas arrivé au pouvoir (élu à 55% des voix) avec le seul soutien de l’élite et de la classe moyenne, le vote en sa faveur a été massif dans les « favelas ». Un vote de rejet du « PT » en raison de l’insécurité, de l’abandon et de la corruption.

8/ La thèse du complot ne tient pas

Les doutes sur l’impartialité du juge Sergio Moro depuis son entrée au gouvernement et surtout les révélations d’écoutes téléphoniques avec des procureurs dans le cadre de l’affaire Lava Jato par The Intercept, n’innocentent aucunement l’ex Président Lula da Silva.
L’affaire Lava-Jato est tentaculaire, elle ne s’arrête pas à la personnalité de Lula, des hommes politiques de tous les partis ont été condamnés. Plus d’un tiers du Congrès est concerné par des poursuites judiciaires. Elle a commencé avec Petrobras qui a ouvert la boite de Pandore des pratiques occultes, s’est poursuivie avec Odebrecht (et des pots-de-vin qui s’étendent à une trentaine de pays), ainsi que la BNDES, la banque du développement qui a moins œuvré pour les bonnes causes que pour les amis de Lula sous mandat de la gauche brésilienne. C’est un scandale de corruption, démesuré à l’image du pays-continent qu’est le Brésil, et qui concerne aussi les événements mondiaux qui y ont été organisés, la coupe du monde de foot(2014) et les Jeux Olympiques(2016).
Si Lula a très certainement été une cible de Moro, ses accusations sont bien réelles et pas le fait de manipulations. L’ex président a été en outre condamné sévèrement (peine alourdie) par des juges de la Cour Suprême dont deux avaient été nommés par un gouvernement PT et que l’on peut difficilement suspecter de partialité.
Pour les défenseurs de Lula, l’ex-Président est victime d’une machination depuis la destitution de l’ex Présidente Dilma Rousseff  mais si celle-ci avait des ressorts politiques, cela n’exclut en rien l’ampleur des fautes reprochées de maquillage des comptes publics. Si « coup » il y eût c’est comme dans la plupart des cas d’ « impeachment », un coup d’intrigue politique, et non un « coup d’Etat ».

9/ Lula à la manœuvre, des mensonges assumés

La politique sociale de Lula a été celle de l’assistanat. Dans le domaine de l’action sociale, il a revendiqué l’instauration de la Bolsa Familia et de l’augmentation du salaire moyen, deux pratiques déjà amorcées sous la présidence de Fernando Henrique Cardoso.
Lula a limité les réformes structurelles en matière sociale, foncière et dans les infrastructures, y compris pendant une période prospère. Au Brésil, les services publics –éducation, santé- sont tombés en déshérence avec la gauche au pouvoir, menant une première fois le peuple brésilien dans la rue, en 2014. Mais avec ses beaux discours, Lula s’est accaparé le « miracle social brésilien » qui tient en réalité du mirage même si incontestablement avec lui, le Brésil a connu l’émergence économique et sociale avec l’émergence d’une classe moyenne (peu comparable avec celle que nous connaissons en Europe). Un changement qu’il a accompagné mais qui fut essentiellement lié à la conjoncture internationale et aux marchés alors florissant des matières premières.
Lula a aussi beaucoup menti dans ses discours sur l’économie du pays, gonflant les chiffres, évoquant notamment l’exploitation de pétrole pré-salt comme une réalité économique alors qu’elle exigeait des investissements colossaux et des années de prospections en eau profonde. « Plus on grossit les chiffres, plus les gens sont crédules » a-t-il un jour plaisanté devant les cadres de Petrobras.
 
10/ Lula pris à son propre piège


Pour rendre compte du fléau de l’impunité, Lula a longtemps déclaré avant d’être élu, que son pays changerait, le jour où un politicien poursuivi, irait en prison. L’affaire Lava jato, la plus vaste opération anticorruption menée au Brésil, l’a, d’une certaine façon, pris au mot. Les enquêteurs n’ont pas fini de remonter les fils de cette incroyable machine à détourner des dizaines de milliards d’euros (dont entre 3,5 et 4 milliards d’euros pour la seule affaire Petrobras). L’un d’eux mène à Mensalao, une affaire de pots-de-vin versés à des députés contre l’achat de leur vote au profit du PT, un scandale politique que l’on a presque oublié mais qui, en 2006, avait failli coûter à Lula, sa réélection.

Queimadas na Amazonia: o que dizem os números? - Sergio Peçanha, Tim Wallace (WP)

We’re thinking about the Amazon fires all wrong. These maps show why.

For weeks, we’ve seen headlines saying the Amazon rainforest is burning. But something unexpected happens when you map satellite data showing both the fires this year and those that have burned in the previous four years: The bulk of the forest remains almost entirely intact.

Source: National Aeronautics and
Space Administration 
Confused? That’s because the heart of the Amazon is not actually on fire. Instead, most of the fires are burning at the fringes of the forest. That’s where the real story, and the real solution to these fires, lie.
Fires are common in the region during this time of the year, as seen on the maps below. They are mostly a man-made event. These fires are set in areas that had already been deforested in previous years and are now being cleared for agriculture.

August fires in the Amazon basin in the last six years
Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

August fires in the Amazon basin in the last six years
Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

August fires in the Amazon basin
Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

August fires in the Amazon basin
Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration 
Brazil nearly doubled its arable land for intensive row cropping between 2000 and 2014, according to a recent study by researchers from the Department of Geographical Sciences at the University of Maryland. Much of the new cultivable land is a result of deforestation.
Earlier this decade, deforestation in Brazil slowed considerably, but more recently, both deforestation and the fires that go along with it have been rising. There were nearly three times as many fires this August as there were the previous August, affecting more than 10,000 square miles of land. Brazil is one of the world’s biggest generators of greenhouse gas emissions, and about 46 percent of the country’s emissions come from the slash and burn deforestation process. 

Deforestation and fires are up,
but still not as high as in the past
Deforestation in square kilometers
Total fires from Jan. to Aug.
Source: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais

Deforestation and fires are up,
but still not as high as in the past
Deforestation in square kilometers
Total fires from Jan. to Aug.
Source: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais

Deforestation and fires are up, but still not as high as in the past
Deforestation in square kilometers
Total fires from Jan. to Aug.
Source: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais

Deforestation and fires are up, but still not as high as in the past
Total fires from Jan. to Aug.
Deforestation in square kilometers
Source: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
The maps below zoom in on the town of Apuí, in Amazonas state. The white areas on the first image show previously deforested areas. The yellow on the second image locates the fires last month. Most fires overlap previously deforested areas, a reminder that most of the fires are not in the forest but on its fringes.

White areas on the map below show deforestation in Apuí, a town in the state of Amazonas, in northern Brazil. On the right, the yellow dots show fires in the region in August.
Source: Sources: NASA (Fire detections), M. C. Hansen, University of Maryland (deforestation background image) 

White areas below show deforestation in Apuí, a town in the state of Amazonas, in northern Brazil.
Yellow dots show fires in the region in August.
Source: Sources: NASA (Fire detections), M. C. Hansen,
University of Maryland (deforestation background image) 

White areas below show deforestation in Apuí, a town in the state of Amazonas, in northern Brazil.
Yellow dots show fires in the region in August.
Source: Sources: NASA (Fire detections), M. C. Hansen,
University of Maryland (deforestation background image) 

White areas show
deforestation in Apuí,
a town in the state of
Amazonas, in
northern Brazil.
Yellow dots show
fires in the region
in August.
Source: Sources: NASA (Fire detections), M. C. Hansen, University of Maryland (deforestation background image) 
The fires were so widespread last month that in São Paulo, Brazil’s largest city, smoke clouds originating hundreds of miles away turned the day to night. Soot and smoke are contaminating clouds, and some scientists believe that it could be reducing precipitation and altering the regional climate — and even that the deforestation-related fires could turn large parts of South America into a desert.
And to understand what’s driving this expansion of Brazilian cropland, it’s helpful to remember that Brazil’s economy has long relied on commodity exports, mostly from agriculture. With an unemployment rate at 12 percent — about 28.4 million people are without a job or underemployed — the country can ill-afford to back off one of its few thriving sectors.
In the past few years, Brazil became one of the world’s biggest producers of such proteins as soy and beef. The European Union is a key importer of Brazilian agricultural products, and China is an even bigger trading partner. The ongoing trade war between the United States and China has afforded Brazilian soy farmers an opportunity to outflank their U.S. competitors and lock down a vast new market. Meeting that demand is yet another incentive to clear more land for cultivation.
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro inherited this economic dynamic. But he has been widely blamed for the fires because his policies exacerbate the problem. Even before taking office this past January, Bolsonaro announced plans to unravel the ministry responsible for protecting the environment. The idea was later scratched, but environmental protection have been weakened under his leadership. Bolsonaro’s government reduced the budget of Brazil’s environmental protection agency by 24 percent, fired employees and created a department to revise, reduce or cancel environmental fines.

This satellite image from Aug. 17 by the European Space Agency shows fires burning in farmland next to forest areas.
(European Space Agency via Descartes Labs)

This satellite image from Aug. 17 by the European Space Agency shows fires burning in farmland next to forest areas.
(European Space Agency via Descartes Labs)

This satellite image from Aug. 17 by the European Space Agency shows fires burning in farmland next to forest areas.
(European Space Agency via Descartes Labs)

This satellite image from Aug. 17 by the European Space Agency shows fires burning in farmland next to forest areas.
(European Space Agency via Descartes Labs)

This satellite image from Aug. 17 by the European Space Agency shows fires burning in farmland next to forest areas.
(European Space Agency via Descartes Labs)
Bolsonaro has bluntly rebuked other countries that he believes are trying to dictate to Brazilians how to handle their natural resources. Leaders of the Group of Seven nations did just that during their recent summit in France, even though they later remained silent about President Trump’s reported push to lift logging restrictions in a part of Alaska roughly as large as West Virginia.
The consequences of the fires in the Amazon know no borders, and neither do the forces that ignited them. If the developed nations want a greater say in the stewardship of the rainforest, they might need to provide more than the modest $20 million offered by the G-7 last month. They might need to pay for it in higher prices for agricultural imports. Most important, they might have to readjust their own consumption habits.
Bolsonaro, as he has on so many other occasions, is also missing the point — and an opportunity. If he really wants to revitalize Brazil’s economy, he could take advantage of the world’s renewed interest in the Amazon and ask developed countries just how much they’re willing to pay to help preserve it. Allowing further deforestation may be a tempting short-term economic lifeline, but this policy puts at risk the future of his country and of its neighbors around the globe.

Read more:
Tim Wallace has a PhD in geography from the University of Wisconsin at Madison and is currently a visual storyteller at Descartes Labs.

Maracaibo: cidade fantasma da Venezuela - Der Spiegel

Ghost Town
A Venezuelan El Dorado Hits Rock Bottom
Maracaibo used to be the Dallas of Venezuela, it's wealth fueled by oil. But today, residents are fighting for survival and the city is experiencing an exodus. The collapse of Maracaibo is emblematic of what may lie in store for the country at large.
Katrin Kuntz and Adriana Fernández
Der Spiegel, Hamburgo – 4.9.2019

The day on which residents of Maracaibo destroyed their own city out of sheer desperation began relatively normally, considering the circumstances. It was March 10, 2019, and for the preceding three days, the power had been out across almost the entire country. Fernel Ricardo, a resident of Maracaibo, the second-largest city in Venezuela, remembers how his city took one step closer to the abyss that day.
The 40-year-old father of three girls, Ricardo relates how he was standing in his kitchen that morning trying not to completely lose his sanity. "Food was rotting in the refrigerator and there was no water coming out of the tap," he says. They were unable to make money transfers or withdraw cash, meaning they couldn't buy anything.
Because much of the telecommunications infrastructure had collapsed, making calls was also difficult. "We received no information, no explanation from the government," Ricardo says. There was just one state radio station that continued to broadcast, with people in Ricardo's neighborhood able to listen in with the help of a generator. "Nobody told us what was going on," Ricardo recalls. "The station just played music."
Soon, panic began to spread in San Jacinto, the impoverished district where he lives, one that is considered a stronghold of former Chávez supporters. "What kind of country isn't able to deliver electricity to its people in the 21st century?" he found himself wondering.
A couple of hours later, Ricardo saw his neighbors marching through the district carrying bags and armed with sticks. "Let's go! To the supermarket!" they were yelling, according to Ricardo. "Enough is enough!"

A Bona Fide Dystopia

In the days that followed, the residents of Maracaibo plundered 523 shops. They raided 106 stores in a shopping mall and ransacked a gigantic supermarket, grabbing food and destroying the structure itself and even stealing the roof paneling. The looters also completely stripped a five-floor hotel, walking off with toilets and sinks in addition to taking the water out of the hotel pool.
A city of 2 million located near the border with Colombia, Maracaibo was once considered one of the richest cities in Venezuela. It was the first city in the country to receive electricity several decades ago, and the modern agricultural industry developed in the state of Zulia, of which Maracaibo is the capital. Huge oil deposits discovered beneath Lake Maracaibo further fueled development and turned the city into the Dallas of Venezuela's oil industry -- a city built on the wealth of the world's largest known oil deposit. The oil workers were known for their expensive cars while executives flew in private jets to gamble away money in the casinos of the Caribbean.
Today, Maracaibo is a ghost town, a bona fide dystopia reminiscent of the apocalyptic film "Mad Max." The limited resources at the disposal of President Nicolás Maduro's government tend to be reserved for the capital city of Caracas, located 700 kilometers (435 miles) away.
A walk through Maracaibo reveals a city where almost all of the restaurants and shops are closed. Stoplights don't work, bus service has been suspended and even schools are largely closed or, if they are open at all, only hold classes for a few hours at a time. "For sale" signs stand in front of many of the houses.
Children rummage through the garbage on the sides of the road on the search for something to eat as people in torn clothes walk past pushing shopping carts -- leftover from the days of plundering -- loaded with canisters full of brackish water. Butchers sell bits of unappetizing-looking meat. Some 6.8 million people in Venezuela are currently suffering from malnourishment. On the outskirts of the city, an emaciated man is taking an evening walk with his mother. When asked what the two of them have eaten that day, he responds: "Mangoes. Nothing else."
After years of neglect under President Hugo Chávez, who died in 2013, the source of the city's and the country's wealth has run dry. The state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) is in terrible shape and oil production has plunged by more than two-thirds since 2013, a result of corruption, mismanagement and sanctions applied by the United States. Recently, the country has only been putting out a million barrels per day, roughly the level of 1945. Hundreds of drilling rigs in Lake Maracaibo have deteriorated, power plants have fallen silent and tankers are sinking.

The Need for an About-Face

Four weeks ago, the U.S. imposed additional sanctions against the Maduro government, a way for Trump to exert more pressure on the Venezuelan president following the failed putsch launched by opposition leader Juan Guaidó. The sanctions have led to an additional one-third drop in oil production even as they have primarily hit the people of Venezuela. The country is hardly earning anything from oil exports anymore and the consequences for the already disastrous economic situation have been catastrophic.
Many in the country see the almost complete collapse of Maracaibo as a harbinger for the ruination of the entire country under President Maduro. If there is no political about-face, all of Venezuela could end up looking like Maracaibo.
In recent years, fully 4 million people -- more than a 10th of the country's population -- have left Venezuela and many thousands more continue turning their backs on Maracaibo and the surrounding region. If current trends hold, around 8 million people will have emigrated from Venezuela by the end of 2020 -- many more than the 5.6 million people who have fled Syria in recent years. Already, the Venezuelan exodus has become the largest mass migration in Latin America and is perhaps destined to become the biggest in the world.
Almost five months have passed since the huge wave of plundering and Fernel Ricardo is sitting in front of his home on a day in August, watching the sand blow across the pothole-filled road. The neighbors across the street are playing dominoes. Ricardo has just asked them for a couple of tomatoes so that his wife can cook something for them in the evening. They don't have any running water and electricity is spotty.
"I used to work in the PDVSA cafeteria," Ricardo says. Since the state-owned oil company basically ceased functioning, he has been repairing electronic devices, though it doesn't provide a regular income. Parked in the garage behind him is an old car belonging to neighbors who have emigrated. Next to it is an iron and a suitcase full of clothes that were also left behind.
"I'm trying to sell everything," he says. "Nobody here can survive off their job. The minimum wage of USD 3 per months is only enough to buy just a single chicken." By the end of the year, the hyperinflation plaguing the country could rise to an astronomical 51 million percent, making the national currency, the bolivar, essentially worthless. Those who can try to get ahold of dollars, or they survive on remittances from family members who have emigrated.

Blinded by Chávez

Back in the days of chaos, when desperation and fury drove the people of Maracaibo to ransack the city, Ricardo was briefly among them. He says he initially saw hundreds of people on the streets. "They had grabbed everything, as if the world was ending. Noodles, rice, shoes, watches, mobile phones and even refrigerators from the shops." Ricardo says he grew fearful when he saw stores burning and heard gunfire, but the police didn't intervene." I quickly grabbed four bottles of water," Ricardo says, "and then I went home."
Right in the middle of the chaos, the government issued a statement claiming that "opposition sabotage" had been responsible for the power outages. Following the most recent outage in July, Maduro blamed an "electromagnetic attack" from the U.S. Now, though, it is thought that a wildfire caused it.
Ricardo says he is ashamed of the plundering, but he also feels partially responsible for the situation in which the county now finds itself. "I voted for Chávez," he says with tears in his eyes. "I allowed myself to be blinded by the good deeds he performed." He says he never thought that Chávez would destroy the country.

Para acessar íntegra:

"Amazonia não está queimando": Ernesto Araujo para CNN (Veja)

Ernesto Araújo para CNN: ‘A Amazônia não está queimando’

Chanceler diz ser mentira que os governos anteriores fizeram mais pela floresta, e admite que Brasil tem responsabilidade menor pelo aquecimento global

O chanceler Ernesto Araújo, sobre aquecimento global: 'Somos parte da questão, como qualquer outro país' - 30/08/2019 (Brendan Smialowski/AFP)
O ministro das Relações Exteriores, Ernesto Araújo, declarou nesta quarta-feira, 4, que a “Amazônia não está queimando” e que a polêmica sobre os incêndios florestais começou a partir de “falsas premissas” e por razões políticas. Em entrevista à jornalista Christiane Amanpour, da CNN, o chanceler culpou os governos anteriores, sobretudo o do ex-presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, pelo desmatamento da região.
“Primeiro de tudo, a Amazônia não está queimando. Tivemos incêndio um pouquinho maior do que no ano passado e um pouco menor do que a média dos últimos 20 anos. A discussão começou com falsas premissas de que tivemos incêndios sem precedentes neste ano, o que não é verdade”, afirmou.
“Não é verdade que os governos anteriores fizeram mais. Eles venderam mais do que fizeram, como o combate aos incêndios na estação de seca. É só olhar os dados e as imagens”, exaltou-se.
Em 18 minutos de entrevista, o ministro não teve o cuidado de diminuir a rusga criada pelo presidente Jair Bolsonaro com a França. Logo no início, mencionou que o líder francês, Emmanuel Macron, não conversara com o governo brasileiro antes de postar um tuíte sobre os incêndios, com foto de dez anos atrás, e de ter designado a Amazônia como “nossa casa”. “Interpretamos como uma interferência na nossa soberania”, afirmou.
Araújo tentou ser didático sobre a questão, mas não deixou de ser apertado por Amanpour, que dispunha de dados no Instituto Nacional de Pesquisa Espacial (Inpe) sobre os incêndios, além de declarações de uma liderança indígena sobre o descaso do atual governo. O chanceler alegou haver focos de incêndios naturais nesta época de seca e outros com motivação criminosa.
Mas reforçou a tese de que “pessoas se coordenaram pelo WhatsApp para colocar fogo na floresta e fazer com o que governo parecesse mau”, em uma referência ao chamado dia do fogo – 10 de agosto passado -, quando mais de 300 focos foram registrados na região de Novo Progresso (PA). Conforme informou a Folha do Progresso, que denunciou o “dia do fogo” , as conversas teriam ocorrido entre fazendeiros locais, que pretendiam “mostrar ao presidente (Jair Bolsonaro) que querem trabalhar, e o único jeito é derrubando” a floresta.
Questionado sobre a demissão do então diretor do Inpe, Ricardo Galvão, por causa da divulgação dos dados sobre os incêndios de julho de 2019, Araújo apostou no discurso do Ministério do Meio Ambiente de que o número referia-se ao acumulado em 12 meses terminados em julho. Amanpour não desistiu de valer-se do dado oficial do Inpe, que mostrava o aumento de 85% nos focos de incêndio de janeiro a agosto, na comparação com igual período de 2018.
“Ele mentiu”, disse o ministro. Foi uma enorme distorção do dado científico o apresentado ao público. Por isso, foi demitido”, completou, com o cuidado de fugir de parte da mesma pergunta sobre o corte de 23 milhões de dólares no orçamento de fiscalização do Ibama.
Na entrevista, Araújo usou o termo “soberania” apenas uma única vez. Provocado por Amanpour sobre o fato de a Amazônia ser um “enorme domínio público”, o chanceler apenas frisou que o governo tem “meios de cuidar” da  parcela presente no território brasileiro. O ministro também fugiu de seus raciocínios teóricos e defendeu o respeito à pesquisa científica ao ser perguntado sobre a contribuição dos incêndios na Amazônia para o aquecimento global.
“Sobre mudança climática, temos de olhar para o fato conforme o Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudança Climática (IPCC)“, alegou. “Somos parte da questão, como qualquer outro país. Mas o Brasil é responsável por menos de 3% das emissões globais, e dois-terços disso vem do desmatamento”, acrescentou Araújo, com o cuidado de mencionar que a União Europeia responde por cerca de 40% e de omitir as emissões bem mais volumosas dos Estados Unidos, o parceiro preferencial do governo Bolsonaro, e da China.
Araújo ainda defendeu o desenvolvimento sustentável da Amazônia, mas ao ser perguntado sobre projetos concretos do governo Bolsonaro, mencionou apenas algumas possíveis áreas de ação, como a pesquisa de biodiversidade e o ecoturismo. Também disse que o governo conversa com lideranças indígenas sobre a possibilidade de exploração de recursos naturais em suas terras, em parceria com empresas nacionais e estrangeiras.

Soberania nacional: a Amazônia - Entrevista de Paulo Roberto de Almeida à rádio Universitária de Uberlândia

Soberania nacional
Entrevista concedida por Paulo Roberto de Almeida ao jornalista Márcio Alvarenga, do programa “Trocando em Miúdos”, da rádio Universitária de Uberlândia, transmitida no dia 2/09/2019; disponível neste link:

Brasil notícias: o país enlouqueceu ou só o presidente? - Blog do Gilvan Melo

Recupero, de uma postagem de Gilvan Melo, essa lista impressionante e estarrecedora de títulos de matérias na imprensa, e sem ter lido ainda nenhuma delas, mas espantado só com o enunciado, fico pensando comigo mesmo (mas divido com meus parcos leitores), o que será que aconteceu com o Brasil?
O que foi que fizemos para merecer tanta estupidez, truculência, despautérios, ignomínia, vergonha alheia, desonra?
Quando tudo isso vai terminar?
Quando voltaremos a ser um país normal?
Quando a loucura vai acabar?
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Gilvan Melo
Bom dia, 05/09/2019

Democracia Política e novo Reformismo
Política e cultura segundo o ponto de vista democrático e reformismo

http://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com.br/

- Olhe as principais opiniões de hoje:

Merval Pereira - País pária
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/merval-pereira-pais-paria.html

Míriam Leitão - Mente autoritária e seus métodos
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/miriam-leitao-mente-autoritaria-e-seus.html

Bernardo Mello Franco - Bolsonaro fez Maduro parecer um gentleman
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/bernardo-mello-franco-bolsonaro-fez.html

Ascânio Seleme - Perguntas, por que não?
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/ascanio-seleme-perguntas-por-que-nao.html

Sérgio Veloso* - Bolsonaro implode até mesmo as relações com aliados
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/sergio-veloso-bolsonaro-implode-ate.html

William Waack - A boca do inferno
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/william-waack-boca-do-inferno.html

João Domingos – Bolsonaro, Moro e os dilemas do ministro da Justiça
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/joao-domingos-bolsonaro-moro-e-os.html

Adriana Fernandes – Teto de gastos, a crise de curto prazo
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/adriana-fernandes-teto-de-gastos-crise.html

Zeina Latif* - Não ignore os sinais
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/zeina-latif-nao-ignore-os-sinais.html

Bruno Boghossian - Vexame internacional gratuito
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/bruno-boghossian-vexame-internacional.html

Maria Hermínia Tavares de Almeida* - O eleitor não é uma ilha
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/maria-herminia-tavares-de-almeida-o.html

Fernando Schüler* - Elogio aos moderados
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/fernando-schuler-elogio-aos-moderados.html

Vinicius Torres Freire - Bolsonaro bate no teto
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/vinicius-torres-freire-bolsonaro-bate.html

Maria Cristina Fernandes - Os barões do Orçamento
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/maria-cristina-fernandes-os-baroes-do.html

Ribamar Oliveira - Não é hora de flexibilizar o teto de gastos
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/ribamar-oliveira-nao-e-hora-de.html

Ricardo Noblat - Bolsonaro acumula poder
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/ricardo-noblat-bolsonaro-acumula-poder.html

O que pensa a mídia – Editoriais
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/o-que-pensa-midia-editoriais_5.html

Bolsonaro ataca pai de Bachelet, torturado na ditadura Pinochet
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/bolsonaro-ataca-pai-de-bachelet.html

Bolsonaro ataca pai de Bachelet, morto sob Pinochet, e defende golpe no Chile
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/bolsonaro-ataca-pai-de-bachelet-morto.html

Declarações de Bolsonaro sobre Bachelet são repudiadas por direita, centro e esquerda no Chile
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/declaracoes-de-bolsonaro-sobre-bachelet.html

Presidente do Chile condena falas de Bolsonaro sobre pai de Bachelet
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/presidente-do-chile-condena-falas-de.html

Bolsonaro ataca Bachelet e ironiza morte do pai da ex-presidente
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/bolsonaro-ataca-bachelet-e-ironiza.html

Poesia | João Cabral de Melo Neto -A mulher sentada
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/poesia-joao-cabral-de-melo-neto-mulher.html

Música | Elton Medeiros – Pressentimento
https://gilvanmelo.blogspot.com/2019/09/musica-elton-medeiros-pressentimento.html

Descoordenação econômica global - Adam Tooze

Adam Tooze era um dos melhores historiadores de Yale, agora na Columbia.

Can Anyone Hold the Global Economy Together?
We are trapped between an erratic Trump, a dysfunctional Europe and an authoritarian China.
Adam Tooze
The New York Times – 4.9.2019

In the last few weeks, the world economy has seen worrying turmoil. Whether or not a recession is imminent, there has certainly been a collapse of confidence.
What has investors so rattled? There are long-term factors in play, like demographic trends and a slowdown in technological change. But what seems finally to have dawned on the markets is that globalization is no longer supported by the combination of investor-friendly economic policy and congenial politics they have long taken for granted.
In the Trump administration, the nationalist theatrics of economic policy have reached new heights. The White House has responded to the wave of recession talk by pillorying the Federal Reserve Board and threatening more tariffs against China.
So incoherent is the Trump administration’s economic policy that no lesser a figure than Bill Dudley, a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has said that America’s central bank should treat the prospect of President Trump’s re-election as a threat to the United States and the world economy. Mr. Dudley argued that the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, should refuse to cushion the effects of Mr. Trump’s protectionism through further interest rate cuts. If the president’s bluster sets off a recession, so be it. At least the Fed would not help usher in a second Trump term.
To be fair, the Fed distanced itself from Mr. Dudley’s suggestion. But he was merely stating what is painfully obvious. The Trump administration — and the Republican Party — threatens the institutions of economic policymaking in the United States. Historically, it’s been radical governments in Europe and Latin America that elicited a hard line from conservative central bankers. It’s extraordinary that this possibility is now being canvassed in what remains the heart of global capitalism.
The world economy needs leadership from Europe: No one has more to lose from a collapse of multilateralism. The eurozone is perched on the edge of a recession — a hard Brexit will make matters worse — but a sharp slowdown in Germany means that for once the interests of North and South are actually aligned. The eurozone needs investment. But it has its own deep political dysfunction to deal with.
Even today, when bond markets will pay the German government to borrow, it is not clear whether Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ailing coalition government can agree on an expansive fiscal program. It would need the Bundestag to declare an economic crisis to release it from the strictures of its austere fiscal policy.
The fact that the world has not yet tipped into recession must in large part be credited to China. This is not to impute superhuman powers or monolithic unity to Beijing. The Chinese government has its hands full managing a nasty combination of slowing growth and a dangerous credit boom. China’s shadow banking sector is a worry, as are the country’s growth-addicted regional governments. China’s corporations piled up cheap dollar debt and are now subject to the erratic upward trajectory of the dollar. And behind the scenes, there are persistent rumors of tension between President Xi Jinping’s clique and that of Premier Li Keqiang.
And yet, in handling both its internal and external problems, China, unlike the United States, at least appears to have a playbook. It is not only synchronizing fiscal and monetary policy but is also using banking regulation and foreign exchange controls to contain the risk of capital flight. Once criticized for resisting the upward pressure on the value of its currency, Beijing is now expected by Washington to pull every lever to stop the yuan from devaluing. And even setting aside the contradictory noises from the Trump administration, there are few in the West who would want to see China liberalize its balance of payments and risk the kind of capital flight that rocked global financial markets in 2015 and 2016.
Tightening economic controls is the opposite of how Western pundits once imagined China’s integration into the world economy. But it is a tool kit that served both Beijing and the rest of the world well by preventing a further downturn. Though the West still pays lip service to the cause of “market reform,” it has come to depend on Beijing’s maintaining its grip. But there’s an unavoidable question: What are the political consequences of a growing reliance on Beijing’s control over the Chinese economy?
The question could be dodged when it was assumed China would converge with the West. Now both parties in Congress pose it in geopolitical terms — key Democrats have pivoted to viewing China’s economic growth as a threat to American security. The repression in Xinjiang poses the question as a human rights issue; the turmoil in Hong Kong raises the stakes. The world watches with bated breath to see whether Beijing will use force to stamp out Hong Kong’s remaining autonomy.
Even if a bloody showdown is avoided, the outlook is disconcerting. Beijing has made clear with its bullying of the management of Cathay Pacific that Hong Kong-based multinationals are no longer exempt from Chinese pressure. Large corporations that chose to locate in Chinese territory and profit from China’s growth will be expected to play by the Communist Party’s rules.
The prospect of a world economy divided among a sclerotic Europe, a nationalist United States and an authoritarian China is a gloomy one.

Adam Tooze is a professor of history at Columbia University and the author, most recently, of “Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World.”