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domingo, 3 de fevereiro de 2019

Venezuela: a derrocada final do cubano-chavismo - Jose Ignacio Soler

Venezuela -> Venezuela Crisis: Latest Developments (José Ignacio Soler, Venezuela)

José Ignacio Soler writes:

In a 2017 WAIS post, I quoted an article from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which listed 4 possible scenarios for Venezuela: 

1) A Soft Landing--the Opposition and Chavismo Live Together 
2) The Slow Unraveling of the Bolivarian Experiment 
3) Temporary or Long-Term Military Government 
4) Civil Conflict and National Collapse 

In that post I commented that it might be too simplistic to come up with only four scenarios. Indeed, reality has become much more complex and difficult to understand. 
It seems that today's situation is more or less a mix of 2,3 and 4, a combination of circumstances with results that are difficult to predict. 
The Venezuelan regime is collapsing, the Bolivarian experiment is accelerating its unraveling, and the economic crisis is making the government pay the price of many years of incompetence and pillaging. Moreover, the government is actually more than ever in the hands of the military, international and diplomatic pressure and sanctions are rounding up the regime, the government's local support never has been so low, and the odds of a civil-military conflict are presently high. 
Yesterday (February 2nd), hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans demonstrated in most Venezuelan and many foreign cities against Maduro, all in support of the Interim President, Guaidó. Most likely in few hours most countries in the EU are going to recognize Guaidó as the legitimate president. The US position is becoming more and more radical and threatening. 
What are the most likely scenario in the next weeks or days? As I say above, it's difficult to predict. 
However, there are "more than rumors" news than in a few days humanitarian aid will be arriving to Venezuela from three different points, by land Cucuta (Colombia), Brazil (probably Boavista) and by sea from one island in the Caribbean (probably Aruba). It is said these convoys of "aid" will be escorted by combined military forces (USA, Colombia, Brazil, and an international force?) to ensure safe delivery. 
If these rumors prove true, particularly the military escorts, in my opinion the humanitarian aid might be just an excuse for an international military intervention ("Trojan Horse"), despite my guess that this scenario would be most unlikely. This disguised intervention would exert more direct pressure on the Venezuelan military. Their reaction remains to be seen. 
In consequence there are great expectations among the population for this drama to end soon. This hope is extremely optimistic in my view, but it provides renewed enthusiasm for civil democratic strength. 
JE comments:  José Ignacio, what's the local news about the rumor of the Russians taking away Venezuela's gold reserves?  It's impossible not to think of the final days of the Spanish Republic.  If the story is true, we can be sure Maduro's folks haven't read their history.

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