Brasil: inflacao anual ja' ultrapassou o teto da meta

Como alguém disse que não iria sacrificar o crescimento brasileiro no combate à inflação, os intermediários e outros formadores de preços se sentiram autorizados a seguir adiante, com reajustes e demandas não previstas nos cálculos do Copom. Assim, a inflação sobe alegremente, tungando os brasileiros em mais de 6% da capacidade de compra.
Sacrificar crescimento? Boa preocupação. Como ele anda em torno de 1% (o que já crescimento negativo da renda per capita, ou seja, diminuição, de fato), poderíamos talvez numa zona de empobrecimento relativo.
Esta é a maravilha da política econômica que nos servem...
Apenas mais um alerta: redução seletiva e parcial de alguns impostos não vai diminuir o ímpeto da inflação, que já parece ter voltado a entranhar os nossos hábitos.
Bravo aos companheiros: conseguiram fazer o Brasil recuar duas décadas. Em matéria de protecionismo se trata de um recuo de três décadas ou mais. Mais um pouco estaremos nos anos 1930...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Brazil Macro Flash: March's CPI Shows Slight Improvement in Core Inflation
Citi group, April 10, 2013

March’s CPI inflation stood at 0.47% m/m, slightly below market consensus and our forecast. Despite that, annual inflation surpassed the upper limit of the target, by reaching 6.59% (from 6.3% in February). As expected, the main upward pressures came from food price increases, reflecting the supply shock in perishable food prices. Therefore, the favorable surprise came from non food prices, more specifically in apparel and transportation prices. In addition to that, the average of core inflation and the diffusion index fell slightly in the monthly result, although still pointing to widespread upward pressures in the economy. Overall, these results reinforce our call that the Copom will start hiking the Selic rate in May by 50bp.

In the monthly result, food prices increased 1.14% (from 1.45%), in line with our expectations. This was the fourth consecutive month that food inflation surpasses 1% m/m. Over the last 12 months, food inflation reached 13.5% (from 12.5% in February), representing one of the main upward pressures in CPI inflation for this period.

The average of core inflation measures fell to 0.43% m/m, representing 5.2% in annualized terms (from 5.6% in February), above mid point target of 4.5% but inside the target band. The diffusion index fell to 69.1% (from 72.4% in February). Excluding food prices, the diffusion index fell to 65.4% (from 74.3%). Moreover, services inflation retreated to 8.4% over the last 12 months (from 8.7% in February). Overall, the measures of trend inflation have improved slightly in March, but still point to widespread upward pressures throughout the economy.

Looking ahead, we do not expect services inflation to decline markedly in the near future, given the tight labor market. Regarding food inflation, the usually fast recovery of the perishable food supply and the downward trend in international food prices point to a slowdown in the coming months. For April, our forecast is currently set at 0.5% m/m, due to temporary upward pressures in monitored prices. For 2013, we see upward risks to our forecast of 5.6% at year-end, related to the unfavorable surprise in food inflation this year.

Banqueiro assaltante, literalmente (Citi)

From the Editors of American Banker

Citi Charges $15 for Checking, Throws in 'Free' Debit

Citigroup, which last week touted its promise not to charge customers for using their debit cards, is telling some checking customers that it will start charging them $15 per month unless they maintain a balance of at least $6,000.

Bem, eu não tenho conta no Citi, e não pretendo ter, mas fica o aviso para quem for distraído e se relacionar com esse grupo de ladrões organizados em forma de banco...

China dependencia: uma analise do Citi

Emerging Markets Macro and Strategy Outlook: Is China all that's left?

David Lubin, Johanna Chua, Joaquin Cottani

Citi, September 29, 2011

• ‘China-dependence’ is no new phenomenon in the global economy, but its importance has been reinforced in the past few months. Back in March, Citi expected 24% of global GDP growth to be generated by China in both 2011 and 2012. Our forecasts now show this contribution rising to 28% this year, and to 30% next year.
  
• China, in turn, has become increasingly reliant on investment spending to deliver GDP growth, which reflects the way in which the exceptionally large credit stimulus was implemented after the Lehman crisis. This has caused an upward shift in China’s share of global commodities consumption.
  
• The credit stimulus remains substantial, and appears to create something of a virtuous circle: since credit extension remains high, so does investment spending; and since investment spending remains high, so does GDP growth; and since GDP growth remains high, asset quality in the financial sector remains healthy-looking. Yet the recent decline in the marginal efficiency of investment spending raises some questions about how easily this virtuous circle can be sustained.
  
• On the face of it, China seems less vulnerable to an external shock than it was pre-Lehman, since net exports are making a much smaller contribution to GDP growth than they used to — another consequence of the credit stimulus. Yet China’s vulnerability to global slowdown shouldn’t be underestimated: total exports account for more than a quarter of GDP and the export sector employs a big army of labor.
  
• China has plenty of room to deliver new stimulus measures, both fiscal and monetary. But the efficiency of additional credit stimulus may be weaker than it was post-Lehman; and it might take a shock to asset prices in order for the Chinese authorities to put stimulus measures in place.
• In view of these risks, we put together a very simple framework to help investors think about what economic contagion risks might result from a sharp China slowdown. But this is tentative. Absence of the Chinese engine for global GDP growth would contain very broad risks.

Nova presidenta: a analise sobria dos banqueiros do Citi

Na verdade, de alguns economistas brasileiros, mas a serviço dos mesmos banqueiros, que antigamente os aliados da nova presidenta (estou esperando a designação oficial, mas parece que ela já se declarou favorável a essa horrível designação) chamariam de especuladores de Wall Street. Hoje, eles já não acham mais isso: são aliados, e como...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Brazil Macro Flash: Outcome of Presidential Elections Reflects Desire for Continuity
Marcelo Kfoury
Stephan Kautz
Leonardo Porto

Bottom Line
As expected, Ms. Dilma Rousseff won the presidential race and will replace President Lula on January 1st. This result represents the overall desire to continue with current policies, meaning strong economic growth and social programs. Overall, the PT and its alliance had a strong showing in Congress, granting a majority at both houses while the opposition, especially the PSDB, managed to come out strong at gubernatorial elections. Therefore, the next administration shouldn’t have much difficulty dealing with Congress, but the opposition might start breeding the future leaders for upcoming elections. The focus of market attentions now should be on the cabinet formation and potential reforms agenda.

Key Points
Ms. Rousseff had 55 million votes while Mr. Serra received 43 million, the tightest presidential election since 1989. Ms. Rousseff had 10 million votes less than President Lula had back in 2006. In spite of a holiday tomorrow, attendance was not much different from previous elections, with absenteeism just slightly higher. Ms. Rousseff won in 15 states, mostly focused on the Northeastern region, while Mr. Serra led in 11 states, with stronger showings in the Southern regions.

Regarding gubernatorial elections, the PSDB consolidated as the main opposition party, winning eight states, which represent over 46% of the total population. In the second round, the PSDB won four of five state elections in dispute and governs two states more than in 2006. The PT and PMDB elected five states’ governors each, while the PSB won in six states.

At Ms. Rousseff’s first press conference, she was accompanied by the former Minister of Finance Antonio Palocci, in a signal that he might have a key post in her administration, likely the Chief of Staff. The economic policy team was also present, including current Minister Mantega and BCB chairman Meirelles. Both are likely to be around in the transition until the end of the year and even in the beginning of Ms. Rousseff’s administration. Finally, she mentioned little about the future, highlighting to keep campaign promises and keep inflation low.

We believe markets will focus now on FX and fiscal policies, namely whether there will be any change coming. So far, until the end of the year we expect no meaningful changes in both. Yet, the Congress needs to finish voting on the 2011 Budget Law, which could provide an opportunity to check whether more conservative spending estimates could be included, opening room for taming the current expenses growth.