Como alguém disse que não iria sacrificar o crescimento brasileiro no combate à inflação, os intermediários e outros formadores de preços se sentiram autorizados a seguir adiante, com reajustes e demandas não previstas nos cálculos do Copom. Assim, a inflação sobe alegremente, tungando os brasileiros em mais de 6% da capacidade de compra.
Sacrificar crescimento? Boa preocupação. Como ele anda em torno de 1% (o que já crescimento negativo da renda per capita, ou seja, diminuição, de fato), poderíamos talvez numa zona de empobrecimento relativo.
Esta é a maravilha da política econômica que nos servem...
Apenas mais um alerta: redução seletiva e parcial de alguns impostos não vai diminuir o ímpeto da inflação, que já parece ter voltado a entranhar os nossos hábitos.
Bravo aos companheiros: conseguiram fazer o Brasil recuar duas décadas. Em matéria de protecionismo se trata de um recuo de três décadas ou mais. Mais um pouco estaremos nos anos 1930...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Brazil Macro Flash: March's CPI Shows Slight Improvement in Core Inflation
Citi group, April 10, 2013
March’s CPI inflation stood at 0.47% m/m, slightly below market consensus and our forecast. Despite that, annual inflation surpassed the upper limit of the target, by reaching 6.59% (from 6.3% in February). As expected, the main upward pressures came from food price increases, reflecting the supply shock in perishable food prices. Therefore, the favorable surprise came from non food prices, more specifically in apparel and transportation prices. In addition to that, the average of core inflation and the diffusion index fell slightly in the monthly result, although still pointing to widespread upward pressures in the economy. Overall, these results reinforce our call that the Copom will start hiking the Selic rate in May by 50bp.
In the monthly result, food prices increased 1.14% (from 1.45%), in line with our expectations. This was the fourth consecutive month that food inflation surpasses 1% m/m. Over the last 12 months, food inflation reached 13.5% (from 12.5% in February), representing one of the main upward pressures in CPI inflation for this period.
The average of core inflation measures fell to 0.43% m/m, representing 5.2% in annualized terms (from 5.6% in February), above mid point target of 4.5% but inside the target band. The diffusion index fell to 69.1% (from 72.4% in February). Excluding food prices, the diffusion index fell to 65.4% (from 74.3%). Moreover, services inflation retreated to 8.4% over the last 12 months (from 8.7% in February). Overall, the measures of trend inflation have improved slightly in March, but still point to widespread upward pressures throughout the economy.
Looking ahead, we do not expect services inflation to decline markedly in the near future, given the tight labor market. Regarding food inflation, the usually fast recovery of the perishable food supply and the downward trend in international food prices point to a slowdown in the coming months. For April, our forecast is currently set at 0.5% m/m, due to temporary upward pressures in monitored prices. For 2013, we see upward risks to our forecast of 5.6% at year-end, related to the unfavorable surprise in food inflation this year.
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