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Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

Mostrando postagens com marcador Francis Fukuyama. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador Francis Fukuyama. Mostrar todas as postagens

quinta-feira, 14 de novembro de 2024

What Trump unleashed means for America - Francis Fukuyama Financial Times

Meu comentário ao final. (PRA)

What Trump unleashed means for America

Republican is inaugurating a new era in US politics and perhaps for the world as a whole

Francis Fukuyama

Financial Times, November 8, 2024

 

The blowout victory of Donald Trump and the Republican party on Tuesday night will lead to major changes in important policy areas, from immigration to Ukraine. But the significance of the election extends way beyond these specific issues, and represents a decisive rejection by American voters of liberalism and the particular way that the understanding of a “free society” has evolved since the 1980s.

When Trump was first elected in 2016, it was easy to believe that this event was an aberration. He was running against a weak opponent who didn’t take him seriously, and in any case Trump didn’t win the popular vote. When Biden won the White House four years later, it seemed as if things had snapped back to normal after a disastrous one-term presidency.

Following Tuesday’s vote, it now seems that it was the Biden presidency that was the anomaly, and that Trump is inaugurating a new era in US politics and perhaps for the world as a whole. Americans were voting with full knowledge of who Trump was and what he represented. Not only did he win a majority of votes and is projected to take every single swing state, but the Republicans retook the Senate and look like holding on to the House of Representatives. Given their existing dominance of the Supreme Court, they are now set to hold all the major branches of government.

But what is the underlying nature of this new phase of American history?

Classical liberalism is a doctrine built around respect for the equal dignity of individuals through a rule of law that protects their rights, and through constitutional checks on the state’s ability to interfere with those rights. But over the past half century that basic impulse underwent two great distortions. The first was the rise of “neoliberalism”, an economic doctrine that sanctified markets and reduced the ability of governments to protect those hurt by economic change. The world got a lot richer in the aggregate, while the working class lost jobs and opportunity. Power shifted away from the places that hosted the original industrial revolution to Asia and other parts of the developing world.

The second distortion was the rise of identity politics or what one might call “woke liberalism”, in which progressive concern for the working class was replaced by targeted protections for a narrower set of marginalised groups: racial minorities, immigrants, sexual minorities and the like. State power was increasingly used not in the service of impartial justice, but rather to promote specific social outcomes for these groups.

The real question at this point is not the malignity of his intentions, but rather his ability to actually carry out what he threatens In the meantime, labour markets were shifting into an information economy. In a world in which most workers sat in front of a computer screen rather than lifted heavy objects off factory floors, women experienced a more equal footing. This transformed power within households and led to the perception of a seemingly constant celebration of female achievement.

The rise of these distorted understandings of liberalism drove a major shift in the social basis of political power. The working class felt that left wing political parties were no longer defending their interests, and began voting for parties of the right. Thus the Democrats lost touch with their working-class base and became a party dominated by educated urban professionals. The former chose to vote Republican. In Europe, Communist party voters in France and Italy defected to Marine Le Pen and Giorgia Meloni. All of these groups were unhappy with a free-trade system that eliminated their livelihoods even as it created a new class of super-rich, and were unhappy as well with progressive parties that seemingly cared more for foreigners and the environment than their own condition.

These big sociological changes were reflected in voting patterns on Tuesday. The Republican victory was built around white working-class voters, but Trump succeeded in peeling off significantly more Black and Hispanic working-class voters compared with the 2020 election. This was especially true of the male voters within these groups. For them, class mattered more than race or ethnicity. There is no particular reason why a working-class Latino, for example, should be particularly attracted to a woke liberalism that favours recent undocumented immigrants and focuses on advancing the interests of women. It is also clear that the vast majority of working-class voters simply did not care about the threat to the liberal order, both domestic and international, posed specifically by Trump. 


==========


Comentário PRA:


Eu não teria muito a comentar a respeito do artigo do Fukuyama, a não ser o fato de que, tendo sido escrito por um intelectual, ele se sente na obrigação de oferecer argumentos elegantes, baseados em conceitos da ciência política (liberalismo, democracia, etc.), ao que nada mais é do que reações prosaicas e muito ordinárias (ou seja comuns) de um eleitorado preocupado majoritariamente com sua situação conjuntural ou momentânea, assim como reações ou adesões a impulsos veiculados nas redes e na midia de baixa qualidade. 
No último meio século, ou mais, o eleitorado da Europa Ocidental e da América do Norte alterna regularmente entre partidos e políticas social-democratas de um lado e conservadoras, de outro, segundo a satisfação imediata decseus interesses os mais anódinos.
Os primeiros são mais generosos por certo tempo (salários, beneficios sociais, assistência, etc.), e acabam provocamdo inflação e crises fiscais. Os segundos entram, corrigem os malfeitos, depois o eleitorado se cansa da austeridade e volta a votar pela generosidade social-democrata. E assim segue.
Os eleitores trumpistas podem não ter votade PELO maluco negacionista e autoritário, e sim CONTRA o inflacionista e leniente com a ameaça imigratória, agitada fraudulentamente como a causa dis problemas atuais.

Não creio em nenhuma elaboração sofisticada para explicar o voto num desclassificado, a não ser a busca ingênua de um bode expiatório a problemas correntes.
Gostaria de complementar minhas observações, não necessariamente sobre o artigo de Fukuyama, escrito muito em cima da vitória do Trump, mas mais especificamente sobre o grau de divergência de Trump e de seu futuro governo com respeito ao que se poderia esperar de qualquer governo bizarro, para os padrões normais para a política americana.
Mas, meus comentários, acima, são excessivamente centrados sobre a alternância regular e esperada entre tendências partidárias conservadoras e mais progressistas na Europa e nos EUA, o que não é, nunca foi e provavelmente sequer será, a qualquer título, o caso de Trump e de seu governo, que rompe com qualquer norma de civilidade na política. 
Quando Fukuyama escreveu, ele ainda não tinha ideia de quais, quem seriam os designados por Trump para cargos estratégicos, o que se revela agora da pior qualidade possível, com consequências inimagináveis nas áreas de segurança e defesa, de justiça, de saúde, de energia, de meio ambiente, ou seja, praticamente tudo o que há de mais relevante num governo.
Trump rompe com todos os padrões aceitáveis de competência na nomeação de assessores,  e na adoção de políticas cooperativas em escala regional ou multilateral.
Creio que, como no caso do Bolsonaro no Brasil, nunca a política americana foi tão desafiada, em sua forma e no seu conteúdo. Sequer podemos imaginar uma continuidade desse tipo de administração em mais um mandato depois deste, o que aliás já foi cogitado por Trump.
Talvez Fukuyama escreva mais algum artigo, esperando as primeiras decisões de Trump na área da política externa. (PRA)

 

 



domingo, 8 de setembro de 2024

The Year of Elections Has Been Good for Democracy - Francis Fukuyama (Foreign Affairs)

The Year of Elections Has Been Good for Democracy

But the Biggest Test Will Come in America


By Francis Fukuyama

Foreign Affairs, September 4, 2024


 

Liberals have engaged in a lot of catastrophic thinking during this “year of elections.” Many feared that authoritarian and populist politicians, from Hungary’s Viktor Orban to India’s Narendra Modi, would consolidate their gains by increasing their shares of the vote. According to Freedom House’s February 2024 Freedom in the World analysis, the world has been in a phase of democratic backsliding for nearly two decades, exacerbated by the rise of authoritarian great powers such as China and Russia, hot wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the ascendance or advancement of populist nationalists in countries that seemed to be securely democratic—Germany, Hungary, India, and Italy.

For liberals who want to preserve a world safe for democracies, perhaps the most alarming point came in mid-July, when Republicans confirmed former President Donald Trump as their party’s presidential nominee and ultra-MAGA JD Vance as his running mate. Although Trump tried to overturn the 2020 U.S. election, he was nonetheless the enthusiastic choice of his party. He had just survived an assassination attempt; his raised fists and call to “fight, fight, fight” drew a sharp contrast with the elderly sitting president, Joe Biden, whose debate performance the previous month made him a clear underdog.

But liberals’ fears that this year would reflect the global triumph of illiberal populism have so far been proved wrong. Although authoritarian ideologies have made clear gains in several countries, democracy in many parts of the world has shown surprising resilience and may yet prevail in the United States. Their belief in the trend of democratic decline has led many liberals to wring their hands and ask despairingly whether they can do anything to reverse it. The answers to this question are simple and boring: go out with your fellow citizens and vote or, if you are more actively inclined, work hard to mobilize like-minded people to help democratic politicians win elections. Liberal democracy is all about personal agency, and there is little evidence that traditional political engagement no longer works.


THE YEAR OF ELECTIONS

The year of elections is so named because an all-time-high number of citizens worldwide went to the polls; nearly 30 countries are holding elections that are both defining and competitive. This pivotal year really began in late 2023, most critically with the Polish election on October 15 that dethroned the populist Law and Justice party (PiS) and replaced it with a coalition of liberal parties. Law and Justice had been following a path blazed by Hungary’s right-wing Fidesz party, but the strong cooperation between Poland’s Civic Platform and other left-of-center parties—whose members worked hard to overcome their past differences and held massive rallies to get out the vote—drove a 41-seat loss for PiS, which also lost its majority in Poland’s lower house of parliament, the Sejm. This represented a major setback for populism in Europe, depriving Hungary of a major ally within the EU. The only other country in eastern Europe to move in a populist direction was Slovakia, as Robert Fico returned as prime minister in October and vowed to end his country’s strong support for Ukraine. Slovakia’s pro-Western president, Zuzana Caputova, declined to run for a second term and was succeeded this June by Fico’s ally Peter Pellegrini, who, like Fico, is more sympathetic to Russia. Although populists made gains, Slovakia remains a deeply polarized nation; in May, a would-be assassin shot Fico because of the prime minister’s opposition to military aid for Ukraine.

In November 2023, Javier Milei defeated Sergio Massa in the second-round presidential vote in Argentina. Many in the United States understood Milei to be an Argentine Trump, given his antiestablishment personal style and embrace of the former U.S. president. But Milei was riding a wave of popular disgust with the ruling Peronists, who had led the country into deep economic stagnation. Although many populists embrace a strong state bent on enforcing conservative cultural values, Milei is a genuine libertarian. The early success of his economic stabilization program allowed him to retain his popularity despite having a weak base in the Argentine National Congress. The chief danger Milei poses is not that he will move in an authoritarian direction but that he will go too far in weakening the Argentine state.


Liberals’ fears that this year would reflect the global triumph of illiberal populism have so far been proved wrong.

Early 2024 saw mixed results for democracy. In January, Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party defeated the pro-Chinese Kuomintang, and Finland remained in a solidly democratic camp. In both cases, the winning parties had worked quietly but vigorously to build their legislative majorities. On the other hand, the following month, El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele was reelected president with a remarkable 85 percent of the vote—a reward for having dramatically decreased crime by using extrajudicial means to incarcerate a large part of the country’s gang leadership. In running for a second term, Bukele flouted the Salvadoran constitutional prohibition against consecutive reelection; he may well remain in power for years to come. The trend toward rewarding strongmen continued with the election of Prabowo Subianto to the Indonesian presidency. Human rights groups have accused Prabowo, a former special forces commander, of committing war crimes during Indonesia’s occupation of Timor-Leste in the 1980s and 1990s; he had been banned from traveling to the United States from 2000 until 2020, when Trump’s State Department granted him a visa. But his victory may not have reflected anything more than the enormous popularity of his predecessor, Joko Widodo, whose legacy Prabowo has claimed he will perpetuate.

In Bangladesh, the corrupt Awami League party led by Sheikh Hasina held on to power in January amid countrywide protests against her rule. Her success, however, would prove to be transitory, as renewed protests after the election led Hasina to flee the country in early August. Whether Bangladesh can reclaim a democratic mantle is not certain, but it is clear that a huge number of citizens were fed up with a ruler who had been in power for 20 of the last 28 years.


POPULIST REMEDIES REJECTED

The middle of the year brought two important elections, in South Africa and Mexico, that did not fit easily into the populist-versus-liberal framework. In South Africa, the African National Congress, which had dominated the country’s politics since it transitioned to democracy in 1994, lost 71 seats and its majority in the National Assembly. The rise of a new party, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), associated with the country’s corrupt former president Jacob Zuma, was troubling, but in the aftermath of the election, the ANC went into a coalition not with MK but with the Democratic Alliance, a party that tends to represent white and so-called colored, or mixed race, voters. The DA gained three parliamentary seats, and the radical left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters party lost five. For all the corruption scandals and economic decline that South Africa has experienced in the past decade, the 2024 election was in some ways reassuring. Voters held the ANC accountable for its corrupt stewardship of the country and did not turn wholeheartedly to populist remedies.

Mexico similarly demonstrated the strength of its democratic culture. Liberal analysts have characterized the country’s sitting president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, as a Latin American populist, but he was popular against the backdrop of a corrupt and ineffective establishment. In daily speeches, he railed against the corrupt oligarchy that had ruled Mexico for decades. He dialed back the war against narcotraffickers, which brought a momentary reduction of violence while failing to solve an underlying problem that will plague Mexico for years to come. And he initiated a number of pro-poor policies while largely maintaining fiscal discipline. As the country’s first decidedly left-wing president since the 1920 Mexican Revolution, he became extremely popular, and his successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, won the presidency in June by more than 30 points over her conservative rival. Sheinbaum’s party, Morena, also won a supermajority in the Mexican Congress, giving it the option of changing the constitution after she takes office. López Obrador displayed many illiberal tendencies during his presidency, and his parting gift to the country will be a so-called reform of Mexico’s judiciary that, in fact, will severely weaken the institution’s independence. But it is not clear how Sheinbaum will use her substantial power once she comes into office. She does not seem to have inherited any of López Obrador’s zealotry. Barring any surprises, she is better thought of as a left-of-center Latin American politician than a left-wing populist.

Another pivotal election was in India, where the vote occurred in stages between mid-April and early June. Prime Minister Modi—a charter member of the populist-nationalist club who had weakened his country’s media, courts, and civil liberties—was expected to increase the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party’s majority in India’s lower house, the Lok Sabha. Instead, the BJP lost its majority and was forced to enter into a coalition with other parties. Its losses were particularly great in its former northern Indian heartland, where it shed 49 seats, including 29 in the poor state of Uttar Pradesh.

Less globally influential but still significant was the election in Mongolia at the end of June. Wedged between Russia and China, the country has been the only state in central Eurasia to realize and maintain a democracy after exiting Moscow’s orbit following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. But the ruling Mongolian People’s Party, the successor to the Soviet-era Communist Party, turned in an increasingly authoritarian and pro-Russian direction between 2022 and 2024. The election, however, saw the opposition Democratic Party more than double its seat count as voters rejected a system pervaded by corruption. This outcome did not make headlines in the West, but it demonstrated the power ordinary voters can wield to defend democracy.


UNSETTLING SHIFTS

Elections to the European Parliament took place in early June. Populist parties such as the Freedom Party in Austria, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) in France, the Alternative for Germany, the Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy all made gains. Across the 27-member bloc, the biggest losers were the Socialists and the Greens. This shift was unsettling but did not amount to the earthquake that some had predicted. Center and center-right parties such as Germany’s Christian Democratic Union and Poland’s Civic Platform hung onto or even increased their vote shares. Poland’s Law and Justice party lost seats, as did Fidesz in Hungary, where a dissident party member, Peter Magyar, split the vote by forming his own party following a corruption scandal in Fidesz.

The European Parliament election’s two most disturbing results came in France and Italy. Le Pen’s RN party swamped French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition, winning more than twice the vote share. This caused Macron to declare a snap national election at the end of June. The RN gained 37 seats, and the leftist alliance, the New Popular Front, added 32; for a moment, it looked as if the RN’s young standard-bearer, Jordan Bardella, was headed toward the prime minister’s office. But in the second round of voting in early July, the center and left parties withdrew their weaker candidates, and the RN was once again locked out of power. This happened only because the left-wing parties’ cooperated to streamline their candidates—the boring but necessary work of politics that previous coalitions had failed to do.

In Italy, the situation is less promising. In the European Parliament elections, Meloni’s populist Brothers of Italy increased its vote share substantially, and her right-wing coalition holds a comfortable majority in the Italian parliament. Meloni, who became prime minister in late 2022, initially portrayed herself as a centrist. Early in her tenure, she broke with pro-Russian populists such as Orban and Fico by expressing strong support for Ukraine, and many commentators speculated that she would back European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s bid for a second term. But after the EU parliament vote, she shifted to the right, and her party voted for only conditional support for Ukraine and opposed von der Leyen’s reelection.

The one large European country to hold an election without the threat that a rising populist party would gain power was the United Kingdom, where in early July, the Labour Party achieved a decisive victory over the Conservatives. The Tories had been in power for 14 years under five prime ministers and had led the country into prolonged economic stagnation by, among other things, supporting Brexit. When the Labour Party replaced its far-left leader, Jeremy Corbyn, with the more moderate Keir Starmer, voters responded favorably. Populist firebrands such as Nigel Farage were still around; his right-wing Reform UK party won 14 percent of the vote, more than the Liberal Democrats, who secured 12 percent. But Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system kept him far from power.


DEMOCRATIC RESISTANCE

There are still a number of important elections to come: in Moldova, where the liberal President Maia Sandu is likely to win reelection, and in Georgia, where the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party has a good chance of retaining power. But the most important election by far is the one occurring on November 5 in the United States between Trump and the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris. At the time of the Republican National Convention in mid-July, a Trump victory against an aging Biden looked likely, but with Biden’s decision to step aside, the Democrats have been suddenly energized. Numerous polls, both nationally and in many of the critical swing states, now show Harris ahead of her opponent.

The outcome of the American election will have huge implications both for American institutions and for the world. Trump has expressed strong admiration for authoritarian leaders such as Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping, and at home, he has promised to weaken checks on executive power. He will almost certainly end U.S. support for Ukraine and has expressed great skepticism about the value of alliances such as NATO. He has vowed to end trade relations with China and to impose a ten percent across-the-board tariff on all foreign-produced goods. The Republican Party has decidedly abandoned the libertarian policies of the Ronald Reagan years and pledges to wield state power in the service of conservative ends.

But thus far, the year of elections has not been a terrible one for democracy worldwide. Populist and authoritarian parties and leaders have made gains in some countries, but they have lost in others. Citizens have expressed their opposition to authoritarian governance in other ways, as well. In July, Venezuelans voted overwhelmingly in favor of the opposition candidate Edmundo González, leading the regime of Nicolás Maduro to commit massive fraud in declaring him the winner. Maduro’s regime can survive only by turning openly authoritarian and abandoning any shred of democratic legitimacy. And in Myanmar, where a military junta abolished elections following a coup in 2021, an armed insurgency that allies the junta’s democratic opposition to a number of ethnic militias is making substantial territorial gains.


The outcome of the American election will have huge implications both for American institutions and for the world.


Elections by themselves do not guarantee good policies or outcomes. What they provide is the opportunity to hold leaders accountable for policy failures and to reward them for perceived successes. Elections become dangerous when they elevate leaders who do not just seek to impose questionable policies but also hope to weaken or undermine basic liberal and democratic institutions. In this respect, the United States has become something of an outlier. In no European or Asian democracy has a leader recently arisen who has blatantly refused to accept the outcome of an election or provoked popular violence to avoid stepping down from power. The willingness of many Republican voters to normalize the events of January 6, 2021, is a symptom of weakening democratic norms in the world’s leading democracy—a signal that will be picked up by like-minded populists (such as the supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who imitated the January 6 rioters when they stormed their Congress in 2023) if Trump returns to the White House in November.

The lesson to be drawn from the year of elections so far is that the rise of populist and authoritarian politicians is not inevitable. Democratic backsliding can and has been resisted in many countries that hold elections. But democratic norms cannot be secured with violence, judicial remedies (for example, the use of the 14th Amendment to disqualify Trump), the rise of a new charismatic leader, or any other quick fix. 

What remains effective is the steady, often boring work of democratic politics: making arguments, convincing and mobilizing voters, adjusting policies, building coalitions, and, if necessary, making compromises where the best gives way to the possible. Even in a dispiriting time for global democracy, citizens still have agency to move toward better futures.

 

  • FRANCIS FUKUYAMA is a Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law and is Director of Stanford’s Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy.

 


quinta-feira, 1 de junho de 2023

Démocratie : la fin d'un modèle ? - Grand entretien avec Francis Fukuyama - Dominique Moisi (Institut Montaigne)

    Institut Montaigne é um think tank liberal francês: 

Dans la famille Occident…
La newsletter hebdomadaire de l'Institut Montaigne

Que reste-t-il de la famille Occident ? C’est la question que nous avons posée cette semaine à Francis Fukuyama, dans un entretien exceptionnel qu’il a accordé à l’Institut Montaigne. La démocratie, qui a longtemps joué son rôle de carte maîtresse, a perdu de son élan et de son attrait, dans un monde multipolaire en recomposition. Dans le jeu de cartes occidental, une nouvelle pièce a fait son apparition il y a un an : la Communauté politique européenne. Elle se réunit aujourd’hui pour son deuxième sommet à Chisinau en Moldavie. Atout ou Joker pour l’UE ? Antichambre de l’adhésion ou machin sans avenir ? Son format, ses membres et son objet poussent, pour l’instant, à un certain optimisme. Dans la famille Europe du Sud, je demande maintenant l’Espagne, où le Premier ministre Pedro Sanchez vient d’essuyer une défaite aux élections municipales et régionales. De quoi bouleverser la présidence tournante de l’UE qui démarre le 1er juillet ? Les élections anticipées du mois de juillet pourraient, de nouveau, changer la donne. Éprouvés, la grande famille européenne et son pater occidental sont bien loin d’être défaits.

Ailleurs dans notre actualité : nous clôturons cette semaine la troisième saison de notre podcast Globe Penseur, en analysant l’actualité internationale de ces derniers jours : du G7 au sommet de la Ligue arabe en passant par la visite du président français en Mongolie. Détour ensuite par la Chine, où nous interrogeons l'internationalisation de la monnaie chinoise, le renminbi. Retour en France enfin, pour la journée mondiale sans tabac, où l’on s’intéresse aux politiques publiques menées pour réduire le tabagisme dans le pays.

30/05/2023

Démocratie : la fin d'un modèle ? - Grand entretien avec Francis Fukuyama


Senior Fellow à l'Institut d'études internationales Freeman Spogli de l'Université de Stanford

Conseiller spécial ​- Géopolitique

Quelles perspectives pour le modèle démocratique à l’heure d’un monde multipolaire ? Peut-il encore prospérer ou a-t-il entamé son inexorable déclin ? Dans ce grand entretien accordé à l’Institut Montaigne, Francis Fukuyama répond aux questions de Dominique Moïsi sur l’avenir de la démocratie, les dix ans de la guerre en Irak et le sombre chapitre ouvert par le conflit russo-ukrainien. Ce grand entretien est aussi l’occasion de retracer le parcours d’une pensée mise à l’épreuve par les défis de son temps; le cheminement d’un intellectuel aussi influent que l’auteur de La fin de l’histoire.

 

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/expressions/democratie-la-fin-dun-modele-grand-entretien-avec-francis-fukuyama

 

Dans la famille Occident…

Que reste-t-il de la famille Occident ? C’est la question que nous avons posée cette semaine à Francis Fukuyama, dans un entretien exceptionnel qu’il a accordé à l’Institut Montaigne. La démocratie, qui a longtemps joué son rôle de carte maîtresse, a perdu de son élan et de son attrait, dans un monde multipolaire en recomposition. Dans le jeu de cartes occidental, une nouvelle pièce a fait son apparition il y a un an : la Communauté politique européenne. Elle se réunit aujourd’hui pour son deuxième sommet à Chisinau en Moldavie. Atout ou Joker pour l’UE ? Antichambre de l’adhésion ou machin sans avenir ? Son format, ses membres et son objet poussent, pour l’instant, à un certain optimisme. Dans la famille Europe du Sud, je demande maintenant l’Espagne, où le Premier ministre Pedro Sanchez vient d’essuyer une défaite aux élections municipales et régionales. De quoi bouleverser la présidence tournante de l’UE qui démarre le 1er juillet ? Les élections anticipées du mois de juillet pourraient, de nouveau, changer la donne. Éprouvés, la grande famille européenne et son pater occidental sont bien loin d’être défaits.

Ailleurs dans notre actualité : nous clôturons cette semaine la troisième saison de notre podcast Globe Penseur, en analysant l’actualité internationale de ces derniers jours : du G7 au sommet de la Ligue arabe en passant par la visite du président français en Mongolie. Détour ensuite par la Chine, où nous interrogeons l'internationalisation de la monnaie chinoise, le renminbi. Retour en France enfin, pour la journée mondiale sans tabac, où l’on s’intéresse aux politiques publiques menées pour réduire le tabagisme dans le pays.

 

Grand Entretien : 

L’Histoire selon Fukuyama

Quelles perspectives pour le modèle démocratique à l’heure d’un monde multipolaire ? Peut-il encore prospérer ou a-t-il entamé son inexorable déclin ? Dans ce grand entretien accordé à l’Institut Montaigne, Francis Fukuyama répond aux questions de Dominique Moïsi sur l’avenir de la démocratie, les dix ans de la guerre en Irak et le sombre chapitre ouvert par le conflit russo-ukrainien.

 

30/05/2023

Démocratie : la fin d'un modèle ? - Grand entretien avec Francis Fukuyama

 

Francis Fukuyama

Senior Fellow à l'Institut d'études internationales Freeman Spogli de l'Université de Stanford

 

Dominique Moïsi

Conseiller spécial ​- Géopolitique

 

Quelles perspectives pour le modèle démocratique à l’heure d’un monde multipolaire ? Peut-il encore prospérer ou a-t-il entamé son inexorable déclin ? Dans ce grand entretien accordé à l’Institut Montaigne, Francis Fukuyama répond aux questions de Dominique Moïsi sur l’avenir de la démocratie, les dix ans de la guerre en Irak et le sombre chapitre ouvert par le conflit russo-ukrainien. Ce grand entretien est aussi l’occasion de retracer le parcours d’une pensée mise à l’épreuve par les défis de son temps; le cheminement d’un intellectuel aussi influent que l’auteur de La fin de l’histoire.

 

L’année 2023 est celle du 20e anniversaire du déclenchement de la guerre en Irak. Dans une interview pour la Fondation Carnegie pour la paix, vous reconnaissez des erreurs d'interprétation sur le sujet. Pourriez-vous retracer l'évolution de votre position sur cette guerre ?

 

Vingt ans après le début de cette guerre, notre foi absolue dans le modèle démocratique et sa capacité à prospérer dans le monde entier s'est affaiblie, si ce n’est effondrée. Plusieurs années avant la guerre, j'avais signé une lettre de la main de Bill Kristol, ancien chef de cabinet de l'administration de George H. W. Bush. Cette lettre soulignait la nécessité d’agir pour arrêter Saddam Hussein. La portée morale des arguments qu’elle soutenait était particulièrement forte me semblait-il : Saddam Hussein était pire que son prédécesseur à presque tous les égards. On a tendance à oublier l’intensité de la peur qui avait saisi les Américains dans les mois suivant les attentats du 11 septembre. L'attaque terroriste du World Trade Center avait tué 3 000 personnes, mais si Al-Qaïda l’avait voulu, cette attaque aurait pu faire 30 000 victimes. À l'époque, les Américains ne cessaient de penser à une prochaine attaque et avaient tendance à surestimer l’ampleur des menaces.

Au cours de cette période, je travaillais sur plusieurs projets autour de la mise en place de structures institutionnelles dans les pays en développement. Je portais une attention toute particulière à l'Amérique latine. Les États-Unis avaient tenté d’y structurer des États comme au Salvador, au Nicaragua ou dans d'autres pays voisins, ce qui s’était avéré un échec patent. Il me semblait alors que nous avions le devoir de nous engager dans une forme de conversion du Moyen-Orient à la démocratie. Or, il s’agissait d’une région que nous comprenions mal. Les hommes politiques américains ne cessaient de rappeler leurs succès en Allemagne et au Japon. Il est vrai que nous avons occupé ces deux pays pendant deux générations et qu'ils sont devenus des démocraties, mais l’on ne pouvait comparer l’incomparable et transposer invariablement ces succès dans d’autres régions du monde. Étions-nous prêt à la même chose en Irak ou en Afghanistan ? Pour moi, en Irak, la réponse était non, nous ne pouvions entamer un processus que nous étions incapables de mener à son terme.

Quand la guerre a commencé, je ne mesurais pas le niveau d’impréparation des États-Unis. Donald Rumsfeld, ancien Secrétaire à la défense de l'administration de George W. Bush, prévoyait un retrait d'Irak à la fin de l'année 2003, après avoir installé Ahmed Chalabi à la tête du pays. Pour lui, la démocratie s'imposerait ensuite d'elle-même. La composition de l'administration Bush à l’époque a eu une influence considérable sur la formation de ces opinions, de nombreux décideurs ayant été témoins de la chute du mur de Berlin. Dans son sillage, l’année 1989 avait entraîné une série de transitions vers la démocratie au sein des pays d'Europe de l'Est, abandonnant l'empire communiste pour rallier le bloc de l’Ouest. Sur le même modèle, de nombreux conseillers politiques pensaient pouvoir transposer cette expérience de démocratisation européenne au Moyen-Orient, en sous-estimant de façon flagrante l’importance des différences culturelles entre les deux régions. Les raisons à même de dissuader le Moyen-Orient de s'occidentaliser ou d’adopter des institutions occidentales étaient pourtant légion.

C’est cette méconnaissance des spécificités de la situation qui est à l'origine de ma rupture avec mes amis néo-conservateurs. J'étais également très troublé par l’assurance frisant l'arrogance de l'administration Bush. Cette croyance absolue qu’ils avaient de détenir la vérité sur ce qui était bon pour la région, leurs certitudes concernant la chute prochaine de la dictature d'Hussein comme la conviction de voir leur projet couronné de succès, toutes ces projections étaient terriblement erronées.

Du passé revenons maintenant au présent, où l’on retrouve des incompréhensions similaires entre les différentes régions du monde. En particulier, comment réagissez-vous à la position de neutralité qu'adoptent les pays du “Sud global” sur l’Ukraine, entre les États-Unis et la Russie ?

Tout d'abord, je voudrais lever un malentendu concernant la démocratie. Être un État dont la forme du gouvernement est démocratique ne signifie pas nécessairement que la démocratie y est promue et sanctuarisée comme idéologie suprême et absolue. Cela n’entraîne pas mécaniquement non plus la défense systématique, par les leaders politiques de ces États, des autres démocraties dans le monde.

Nous, Américains et Français, sommes biaisés sur cette question, car la Démocratie est l’essence même de notre identité nationale. Mais il faut bien avoir en tête que pour certains États, la démocratie n’est rien d’autre qu’une forme de gouvernement. En France, il s'agit d'une tradition républicaine issue de la Révolution. Aux États-Unis, la démocratie s’incarne dans la Constitution, vénérée comme un texte sacré par de nombreux Américains. Cela explique que la démocratie soit, pour nos deux pays, un principe directeur dans nos relations internationales. Si de nombreux pays d'Amérique du Sud, le Brésil ou l'Inde sont désormais des démocraties, la démocratie n'occupe pas la même place dans leur identité en tant qu’États, et ne joue pas le même rôle dans leurs rapports au reste du monde.

 

La politique étrangère joue également un rôle clé sur cette question. De nombreux pays, notamment en Amérique latine, ont souffert de l'hégémonie américaine, une hégémonie plutôt économique que militaire certes, mais dont l’héritage suscite un fort ressentiment. Alors que l'Union soviétique soutenait le Congrès national africain (ANC Sud-africain) pendant la guerre froide, l'administration Reagan a fourni des armes et un soutien à certaines forces anti-libération, en Angola notamment, mais aussi au Mozambique, deux pays du camp opposé à celui de Conseil national africian. Il faut aussi noter que les pays du Sud, très attachés à leur souveraineté, se considèrent comme des États-civilisation à part entière. Dans de nombreux cas de figure, d’autres intérêts viennent prendre le pas sur la promotion du modèle démocratique.

Troisième point enfin, la démocratie américaine, très perturbée ces dernières années, n'a plus l’attrait qu’elle pouvait avoir dans les années 1980. À l'époque, Ronald Reagan était sûr de lui, les États-Unis ne souffraient ni des grandes divisions que le pays connaît aujourd’hui, ni des crises permanentes liées à la violence armée, aux questions raciales ou identitaires. Pour de nombreux Américain, la croyance selon laquelle la page de l’histoire terrible du racisme était tournée, et qu’un ordre post-racial s’ouvrait, était très ancrée à l’époque.

Force est de constater que le cours des évènements a pris la tournure opposée, comme l’a démontré le backlash nationaliste et populiste de la présidence de Donald Trump. Et l’ancien président est toujours présent : Donald Trump se présente à nouveau à l’élection américaine de 2024, et il pourrait être réélu. En un mot, les États-Unis ne sont plus ce modèle de démocratie qu’ils ont été par le passé.

Nous ne vivons plus dans un monde bipolaire, même si la compétition sino-américaine est probablement appelée à dominer le monde. En tant qu'universitaire, vous avez réfléchi tout au long de votre vie sur le sens et l'avenir de la démocratie, quel regard portez-vous sur cette nouvelle configuration ?

Tout d’abord, le primat de la géopolitique sur l'idéologie n’est pas un phénomène nouveau, nous l’avons déjà vécu pendant la guerre froide. Poussés par l’impérieuse nécessité de contrer l'Union soviétique, les États-Unis ont montré à différentes occasions qu'ils pouvaient passer des accords avec des dirigeants peu fréquentables, anti-démocratiques et corrompus, de l'Arabie Saoudite à l’Iran, en passant par les Philippines. Nous vivons dans un monde régi par le pouvoir et la géopolitique : il n'existe aucun pays qui fasse de la démocratie, au sens idéologique du terme, un principe directeur, unique et dominant de sa politique étrangère.

En réalité, nous avons vécu une sorte de parenthèse après la chute du mur de Berlin et l’effondrement de l’Union soviétique, pendant laquelle la puissance des États-Unis était telle que les considérations géopolitiques étaient, de facto, moins prégnantes. À cette époque, le budget de défense américain équivalait, dans le monde, à la somme de tous les budgets de défense réunis. Cette extraordinaire hégémonie n’était pas seulement militaire, mais également économique, politique et culturelle. Mais cette parenthèse était tout à fait exceptionnelle, historiquement, la répartition des pouvoirs dans le monde est beaucoup plus équilibrée. Nous venons de revenir à une configuration "classique", avec un monde plus multipolaire, organisé autour de multiples clivages idéologiques.

En outre, pour l’opinion publique, l’appréciation d’un système politique, le fait de savoir s’il est "bon" ou "mauvais", ne se construit plus seulement sur des considérations morales. De ce point de vue, le pouvoir, seul, fait foi : le système politique le plus puissant tend à bénéficier d’un soutien accru.

Ce fut le cas pour les États-Unis entre 1989 et 2008 environ, comme pour la Chine depuis. C’est la raison pour laquelle de nombreux pays s’emploient à imiter Pékin, et les États-Unis perdent ainsi de nombreux "clients politiques".

Depuis Donald Trump et la marche sur le Capitole du 6 janvier 2021, les États-Unis n'incarnent plus le rêve de la démocratie mais plutôt son cauchemar. À quel point l'avenir de l'Amérique vous préoccupe-t-il ?

J’espère évidemment que l’influence de Donald Trump décline, mais c’est loin d’être le cas aujourd’hui : au lieu de s’effacer, l'ex-président parvient de nouveau à attirer l’attention des médias ces derniers mois. Il prend ainsi de l'avance sur son rival au sein du camp Républicain, le gouverneur de Floride Ron DeSantis.

On note cependant que le noyau dur des partisans de Trump ne rallie pas plus d'un tiers de l’ensemble de l'électorat. Le tiers le plus à gauche de l’échiquier politique ne le soutiendrait jamais et le tiers médian, quant à lui, semble se lasser. Bien que cette portion adhère aux positions républicaines et conservatrices sur des questions majeures comme l'immigration, cette part de l'électorat n’est pas composée de soutiens de Trump de la première heure. À ce stade, me semble-t-il, la probabilité de son retour est encore assez faible.

Face aux Républicains, les démocrates doivent proposer une alternative solide. Joe Biden est déjà très âgé et la vice-présidente, Kamala Harris, peu populaire. Un scénario qui verrait la santé de l’actuel président décliner, permettant ainsi à Trump ou un autre Républicain d’accéder au pouvoir, n’est pas non plus à écarter.

Les Européens doivent demeurer sur le qui-vive. La situation reste particulièrement périlleuse. Les élections de novembre ont néanmoins apporté leur lot de réconfort. Avec les élections de 2024 en ligne de mire, les Républicains avaient fait la promotion de candidats ayant contesté la légitimité de celle de Joe Biden. Finalement, nombreux sont les démocrates qui l’ont emporté dans la quasi-totalité des swing states. Oui, les électeurs se sont lassés de ce discours. 

En matière de diplomatie française, Emmanuel Macron à tout l’air de prôner l'équidistance entre la Chine et les États-Unis au détriment de ses relations avec le reste du monde occidental. Trois éléments semblent jouer un rôle dans cette prise de position : la persistance d'une tradition gaulliste dévoyée, des vues profondément divergentes sur la manière de définir les relations avec la Chine, et la conviction qu'il y aurait trop d'incertitudes pour compter sur les États-Unis. Il y a là un étrange souhait qui ne dit pas son nom : voir l'Amérique en difficulté. Quel regard portez-vous sur l'avenir politique de la France ?

Que l’Europe ait davantage d’autonomie vis-à-vis des États-Unis me semble une ambition louable. En réalité, les États-Unis eux-mêmes poussent l'Europe à assumer davantage de responsabilités dans la garantie de sa propre sécurité et de sa défense, en augmentant significativement ses dépenses en la matière.

En l’état, il serait cependant illusoire d’aspirer purement et simplement ne "plus dépendre" des États-Unis, la guerre en Ukraine en donne l’illustration la plus éloquente. Les États-Unis demeurent un allié incontournable pour les Européens en période de guerre de haute intensité, avec des besoins capacitaires et de financements très importants. La France et l'Allemagne ne pourraient soutenir les Ukrainiens comme Washington l’a fait. Si l'idée d'une autonomie stratégique européenne est séduisante, la route pour y parvenir est encore longue.

Selon moi, le recours à la tradition gaulliste, comme les illusions entretenues à l’égard de la Chine reposent sur des postulats erronés. La détérioration des relations sino-américaines est, à mon sens, la responsabilité de la Chine à plus de 90 %. Chacune des vagues marquantes de dégradation de ces relations ont été initiées par Pékin : des politiques d’exclusion à l’égard d'entreprises occidentales à la menace sur Taiwan, en passant par les manœuvres de Pékin en mer de Chine méridionale.

Il est vain d’envisager maintenir une équidistance entre une Chine totalitaire et une Amérique démocratique, d’autant plus que celle-ci, sous l’impulsion de plusieurs présidents, a réellement tenté de maintenir un engagement avec Pékin.

Lorsque l'on considère l'évolution de la politique française, on est frappé par la colère, sinon la haine que suscite Emmanuel Macron dans l'opinion publique. Ce phénomène est représentatif d'une tendance plus globale liée aux évolutions de la démocratie à l'ère numérique, oscillant entre culte de la personnalité et profonde défiance à l’égard des figures de pouvoir. Depuis la Californie, comment percevez-vous la situation qui prévaut en France ?

Tout d’abord, il existe une double fracture entre, d’un côté, des zones urbaines exposées à l’économie globalisée, avec une population évoluant dans un environnement pluraliste, et, de l’autre, les populations en marge grandes villes, n'accédant qu’à un faible niveau d’éducation. Ce constat s’applique à la France comme aux États-Unis.

Le soutien aux Gilets Jaunes est étroitement lié à la densité de population. Ce soutien augmente à mesure que la distance entre la personne et une grande ville s'accroît. Cette tendance reflète les disparités économiques créées par la mondialisation, où les personnes instruites gagnent des salaires beaucoup plus élevés parce que le rendement de l'éducation est plus important. De ce point de vue là, la France n’est pas un cas isolé, et d’autres pays ont connu des mouvements populistes comparables. La grande différence que j’identifie concerne le poids de la gauche en France, qui est beaucoup plus important et populaire qu'aux États-Unis. Bernie Sanders est certes allé au-delà de ce que beaucoup espéraient lorsqu’il a tenté d'accéder au pouvoir en 2016, mais l’extrême gauche comme la gauche populiste demeurent relativement faibles aux États-Unis. En France, les manifestations contre la réforme des retraites sont majoritairement portées par les syndicats, qui demeurent une base solide pour les partis de gauche. En ce sens, le pays conserve encore ses traditions politiques les plus anciennes.

Comment les démocraties peuvent-elles lutter contre le populisme aujourd’hui ? Quelles pistes vous viennent à l'esprit à ce sujet ?

On débat pour savoir qui de l’économie ou de la culture serait la force motrice du populisme. Selon moi, ces deux déterminants interagissent ensemble. Sur le plan culturel, on note un fort ressentiment lié à la réussite des élites, qui ont protégé leurs positions et, bien souvent, adoptent des attitudes méprisantes à l’égard des plus précaires.

Mais ne cédons pas au piège qui consiste à associer les populistes de droite à des racistes xénophobes, incapables de comprendre le monde dans ses nuances et sa complexité. Ce discours méprisant ne fait que nourrir davantage le ressentiment ambiant.

Les politiques économiques, quant à elles, font l’objet d’ajustements afin de s'attaquer aux nombreuses inégalités engendrées par la mondialisation portées par les États-Unis durant les décennies 1990 - 2000 notamment. Il est difficile de dire si ces ajustements seront suffisants, d'autant plus que la technologie joue aussi un rôle prépondérant dans le développement de ce ressentiment. Le fonctionnement des réseaux sociaux affecte très sérieusement les bases de la délibération démocratique. Les faits alternatifs amènent à contester la crédibilité de réalités tangibles. Déterminer la marche à suivre pour dépasser complètement ces divisions est un véritable défi.

Deux théories s'affrontent à propos des démocraties et de leur avenir. La première présage leur déclin, dans le sillage des États-Unis, avec un grand vainqueur au sortir de la guerre en Ukraine : Pékin. L'Amérique n'en sortirait ni plus puissante, ni la Russie plus faible. La seconde théorie postule que les régimes autoritaires ne seraient en réalité pas aussi doués pour la guerre - on l’a vu en Russie avec Poutine - et que seuls les pays démocratiques, comme l'Ukraine, se montreraient véritablement résistants et combatifs. De quel côté vous situez-vous ?

Je suis plus optimiste pour l'avenir. Les pays autoritaires peuvent commettre de graves erreurs, le cas de Poutine en Ukraine le prouve, tout comme celui de Xi Jinping et sa politique du "zéro covid", particulièrement décriée. Mais, ce qui compte le plus, c'est l'impressionnante solidarité dont ont fait preuve les pays de l'OTAN et de l'Occident, y compris le Japon.

Il n’est donc pas certain que Pékin sorte vainqueur de cette séquence. Notons également que la menace que la Chine fait peser sur Taïwan est bien antérieure à l'invasion russe en Ukraine. Seulement, la possibilité qu'une grande puissance ait recours à la force de façon aussi directe est désormais considérée avec le plus grand sérieux. Les Occidentaux s'y préparent : l'OTAN s’élargit, avec l’adhésion de la Finlande et, espérons-le, de la Suède. L’unité de ce front, l’intensité de cette solidarité et cette détermination à résister face à toute manœuvre agressive sur le plan géopolitique, sont sans commune mesure en comparaison de la situation que l’on connaissait il y a un an et demi. Certes, ce ne sera probablement pas suffisant pour relever l’ensemble des défis auxquels nous sommes confrontés. Néanmoins, c’est déjà un premier pas crucial afin de nous prévenir des scénarios les plus sombres.

Copyright Image : Stefani Reynolds / AFP

Une silhouette est visible derrière un drapeau américain et ukrainien alors que des personnes se rassemblent pour la Journée de solidarité avec l'Ukraine au Lincoln Memorial à Washington, DC, le 20 février 2022.

 

 

 





segunda-feira, 4 de abril de 2022

Francis Fukuyama em defesa de um nacionalismo liberal (Foreign Affairs)

  De fato, não deveria haver contradição ou oposição entre uma sociedade perfeitamente liberal e o sentimento nacionalista, uma vez que as sociedades atuais estão organicamente e institucionalmente organizadas emEstados nacionais distintos e separados (à exceção da aventura comunitária da UE), em número de aproximadamente 200 nações atualmente (contra pouco mais de 50 no nascimento da ONU, em 1945). Mas, líderes populistas costumam estimular, e excitar, os sentimentos nacionalistas exclusivos do seu próprio povo (que por vezes não é homogêneo ou dotado da mesma língua e religião), para fins de ganhos eleitorais, explorando reações de rejeição em sociedades estressadas por problemas econômicos (recessão, desemprego, inflação, pressões fiscais, previdência, etc.) ou levas imigratórias vindas de regiões miseráveis ou em guerra.

A deterioração da democracia liberal e o crescimento dos regimes iliberais no mundo são fenômenos deveras preocupantesmeste início de um século que enfrenta a possibilidade de novas fricções imperiais, o outro grande desafio à tolerância democrático no mundo e no plano doméstico dos Estados nacionais. A democracia está sob pressão em diversas partes do mundo, inclusive no Brasil. A boa informação e a educação são as respostas adequadas, mas tem muita gente interessada no autoritarismo.

Paulo Roberto de Almeida 

Foreign Affairs, Nova York - Maio-Junho 2022

A Country of Their Own

Liberalism Needs the Nation

Francis Fukuyama

 

Liberalism is in peril. The fundamentals of liberal societies are tolerance of difference, respect for individual rights, and the rule of law, and all are under threat as the world suffers what can be called a democratic recession or even a depression. According to Freedom House, political rights and civil liberties around the world have fallen each year for the last 16 years. Liberalism’s decline is evident in the growing strength of autocracies such as China and Russia, the erosion of liberal—or nominally liberal—institutions in countries such as Hungary and Turkey, and the backsliding of liberal democracies such as India and the United States.

In each of these cases, nationalism has powered the rise of illiberalism. Illiberal leaders, their parties, and their allies have harnessed nationalist rhetoric in seeking greater control of their societies. They denounce their opponents as out-of-touch elites, effete cosmopolitans, and globalists.They claim to be the authentic representatives of their country and its true guardians. Sometimes, illiberal politicians merely caricature their liberal counterparts as ineffectual and removed from the lives of the people they presume to represent. Often, however, they describe their liberal rivals not simply as political adversaries but as something more sinister: enemies of the people.

The very nature of liberalism makes it susceptible to this line of attack. The most fundamental principle enshrined in liberalism is one of tolerance: the state does not prescribe beliefs, identities, or any other kind of dogma. Ever since its tentative emergence in the seventeenth century as an organizing principle for politics, liberalism deliberately lowered the sights of politics to aim not at “the good life” as defined by a particular religion, moral doctrine, or cultural tradition but at the preservation of life itself under conditions in which populations cannot agree on what the good life is. This agnostic nature creates a spiritual vacuum, as individuals go their own ways and experience only a thin sense of community. Liberal political orders do require shared values, such as tolerance, compromise, and deliberation, but these do not foster the strong emotional bonds found in tightly knit religious and ethnonationalist communities. Indeed, liberal societies have often encouraged the aimless pursuit of material self-gratification.

Liberalism’s most important selling point remains the pragmatic one that has existed for centuries: its ability to manage diversity in pluralistic societies. Yet there is a limit to the kinds of diversity that liberal societies can handle. If enough people reject liberal principles themselves and seek to restrict the fundamental rights of others, or if citizens resort to violence to get their way, then liberalism alone cannot maintain political order. And if diverse societies move away from liberal principles and try to base their national identities on race, ethnicity, religion, or some other, different substantive vision of the good life, they invite a return to potentially bloody conflict. A world full of such countries will invariably be more fractious, more tumultuous, and more violent.

That is why it is all the more important for liberals not to give up on the idea of the nation. They should recognize that in truth, nothing makes the universalism of liberalism incompatible with a world of nation-states. National identity is malleable, and it can be shaped to reflect liberal aspirations and to instill a sense of community and purpose among a broad public.

For proof of the abiding importance of national identity, look no further than the trouble Russia has run into in attacking Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Ukraine did not have an identity separate from that of Russia and that the country would collapse immediately once his invasion began. Instead, Ukraine has resisted Russia tenaciously precisely because its citizens are loyal to the idea of an independent, liberal democratic Ukraine and do not want to live in a corrupt dictatorship imposed from without. With their bravery, they have made clear that citizens are willing to die for liberal ideals, but only when those ideals are embedded in a country they can call their own.

 

LIBERALISM’S SPIRITUAL VACUUM

 

Liberal societies struggle to present a positive vision of national identity to their citizens. The theory behind liberalism has great difficulties drawing clear boundaries around communities and explaining what is owed to people inside and outside those boundaries. This is because the theory is built on top of a claim of universalism. As asserted in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, “All human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights”; further, “Everyone is entitled to all the rights and freedoms set forth in this Declaration, without distinction of any kind, such as race, colour, sex, language, religion, political or other opinion, national or social origin, property, birth or other status.” Liberals are theoretically concerned with violations of human rights no matter where in the world they occur. Many liberals dislike the particularistic attachments of nationalists and imagine themselves to be “citizens of the world.”

The claim of universalism can be hard to reconcile with the division of the world into nation-states. There is no clear liberal theory, for instance, on how to draw national boundaries, a deficit that has led to intraliberal conflicts over the separatism of regions such as Catalonia, Quebec, and Scotland and disagreements over the proper treatment of immigrants and refugees. Populists, such as former U.S. President Donald Trump, have channeled that tension between the universalist aspirations of liberalism and the narrower claims of nationalism to powerful effect.

Nationalists complain that liberalism has dissolved the bonds of national community and replaced them with a global cosmopolitanism that cares about people in distant countries as much as it cares for fellow citizens. Nineteenth-century nationalists based national identity on biology and believed that national communities were rooted in common ancestry. This continues to be a theme for certain contemporary nationalists, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has defined Hungarian national identity as being based on Magyar ethnicity. Other nationalists, such as the Israeli scholar Yoram Hazony, have sought to revise twentieth-century ethnonationalism by arguing that nations constitute coherent cultural units that allow their members to share thick traditions of food, holidays, language, and the like. The American conservative thinker Patrick Deneen has asserted that liberalism constitutes a form of anticulture that has dissolved all forms of preliberal culture, using the power of the 

Significantly, Deneen and other conservatives have broken with economic neoliberals and have been vocal in blaming market capitalism for eroding the values of family, community, and tradition. As a result, the twentieth-century categories that defined the political left and right in terms of economic ideology do not fit the present reality neatly, with right-wing groups being willing to countenance the use of state power to regulate both social life and the economy.

There is considerable overlap between nationalists and religious conservatives. Among the traditions that contemporary nationalists want to preserve are religious ones; thus, the Law and Justice party in Poland has been closely aligned with the Polish Catholic Church and has taken on many of the latter’s cultural complaints about liberal Europe’s support for abortion and same-sex marriage. Similarly, religious conservatives often regard themselves as patriots; this is certainly true for the American evangelicals who formed the core of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement.

The substantive conservative critique of liberalism—that liberal societies provide no strong common moral core around which community can be built—is true enough. This is indeed a feature of liberalism, not a bug. The question for conservatives is whether there is a realistic way to turn back the clock and reimpose a thicker moral order. Some U.S. conservatives hope to return to an imagined time when virtually everyone in the United States was Christian. But modern societies are far more diverse religiously today than at the time of Europe’s religious wars in the sixteenth century. The idea of restoring a shared moral tradition defined by religious belief is a nonstarter. Leaders who hope to effect this kind of restoration, such as Narendra Modi, India’s Hindu nationalist prime minister, are inviting oppression and communal violence. Modi knows this all too well: he was chief minister of the western state of Gujarat when it was racked by communal riots in 2002 that left thousands dead, mostly Muslims. Since 2014, when Modi became prime minister, he and his allies have sought to tie Indian national identity to the masts of Hinduism and the Hindi language, a sea change from the secular pluralism of India’s liberal founders.

 

THE INESCAPABLE STATE

 

Illiberal forces around the world will continue to use appeals to nationalism as a powerful electoral weapon. Liberals may be tempted to dismiss this rhetoric as jingoistic and crude. But they should not cede the nation to their opponents.

 All societies need to make use of force, both to preserve internal order and to protect themselves from external enemies. A liberal society does this by creating a powerful state but then constraining the state’s power under the rule of law. The state’s power is based on a social contract among autonomous individuals who agree to give up some of their rights to do as they please in return for the state’s protection. It is legitimized by both the common acceptance of the law and, if it is a liberal democracy, popular elections.

Liberal rights are meaningless if they cannot be enforced by a state, which, according to the German sociologist Max Weber’s famous definition, is a legitimate monopoly of force over a defined territory. The territorial jurisdiction of a state necessarily corresponds to the area occupied by the group of individuals who signed on to the social contract. People living outside that jurisdiction must have their rights respected, but not necessarily enforced, by that state.

States with a delimited territorial jurisdiction therefore remain critical political actors, because they are the only ones able to exercise a legitimate use of force. In today’s globalized world, power is employed by a wide variety of bodies, from multinational corporations to nonprofit groups to terrorist organizations to supranational bodies such as the European Union and the United Nations. The need for international cooperation in addressing issues such as global warming and pandemics has never been more evident. But it remains the case that one particular form of power, the ability to enforce rules through the threat or the actual use of force, remains under the control of nation-states. Neither the European Union nor the International Air Transport Association deploys its own police or army to enforce the rules it sets. Such organizations still depend on the coercive capacity of the countries that empowered them. To be sure, there is today a large body of international law that in many domains displaces national-level law; think, for example, of the European Union’s acquis communautaire, which serves as a kind of common law to regulate commerce and settle disputes. But in the end, international law continues to rely on national-level enforcement. When EU member states disagree on important matters of policy, as they did during the euro crisis of 2010 and the migrant crisis of 2015, the outcome is decided not by European law but by the relative power of the member states. Ultimate power, in other words, continues to be the province of nation-states, which means that the control of power at this level remains critical.

There is thus no necessary contradiction between liberal universalism and the need for nation-states. Although the normative value of human rights may be universal, enforcement power is not; it is a scarce resource that is necessarily applied in a territorially delimited way. A liberal state is perfectly justified in granting different levels of rights to citizens and noncitizens, because it does not have the resources or the writ to protect rights universally. All people within the state’s territory are due the equal protection of the law, but only citizens are full participants in the social contract, with special rights and duties, in particular the right to vote.

The fact that states remain the locus of coercive power should inspire caution about proposals to create new supranational bodies and to delegate such power to them. Liberal societies have had several hundred years of experience learning how to constrain power at a national level through rule-of-law and legislative institutions and how to balance power so that its use reflects general interests. They have no idea how to create such institutions at a global level, where, for example, a global court or legislature would be able to constrain the arbitrary decisions of a global executive. The European Union is the product of the most serious effort to do this at a regional level; the result is an awkward system characterized by excessive weakness in some domains (fiscal policy, foreign affairs) and excessive power in others (economic regulation). Europe at least has a certain common history and cultural identity that do not exist at the global level. International institutions such as the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court continue to rely on states to enforce their writs.

The German philosopher Immanuel Kant imagined a condition of “perpetual peace” in which a world populated by liberal states would regulate international relations through law rather than by resorting to violence. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated, unfortunately, that the world has not yet reached this post-historical moment and that raw military power remains the ultimate guarantor of peace for liberal countries. The nation-state is therefore unlikely to disappear as the crucial actor in global politics.

 

THE GOOD LIFE

 

The conservative critique of liberalism contains, at its core, a reasonable skepticism of the liberal emphasis on individual autonomy. Liberal societies assume an equality of human dignity, a dignity that is rooted in an individual’s ability to make choices. For that reason, they are dedicated to protecting that autonomy as a matter of basic rights. But although autonomy is a fundamental liberal value, it is not the sole human good that automatically trumps all other visions of the good life.

The realm of what is accepted as autonomy has steadily expanded over time, broadening from the choice to obey rules within an existing moral framework to making up those rules for oneself. But respect for autonomy was meant to manage and moderate the competition of deeply held beliefs, not to displace those beliefs in their entirety. Not every human being thinks that maximizing his or her personal autonomy is the most important goal of life or that disrupting every existing form of authority is necessarily a good thing. Many people are happy to limit their freedom of choice by accepting religious and moral frameworks that connect them with other people or by living within inherited cultural traditions. The U.S. Constitution’s First Amendment was meant to protect the free exercise of religion, not to protect citizens from religion.

Successful liberal societies have their own culture and their own understanding of the good life, even if that vision may be thinner than those offered by societies bound by a single doctrine. They cannot be neutral with regard to the values that are necessary to sustain themselves as liberal societies. They need to prioritize public-spiritedness, tolerance, open-mindedness, and active engagement in public affairs if they are to cohere. They need to prize innovation, entrepreneurship, and risk-taking if they are to prosper economically. A society of inward-looking individuals interested only in maximizing their personal consumption will not be a society at all.

States are important not just because they are the locus of legitimate power and the instruments for controlling violence. They are also a singular source of community. Liberal universalism on one level flies in the face of the nature of human sociability. People feel the strongest bonds of affection for those closest to them, such as friends and family; as the circle of acquaintance widens, their sense of obligation inevitably attenuates. As human societies have grown larger and more complex over the centuries, the boundaries of solidarity have expanded dramatically from families and villages and tribes to entire countries. But few people love humanity as a whole. For most people around the world, the country remains the largest unit of solidarity to which they feel an instinctive loyalty. Indeed, that loyalty becomes a critical underpinning of the state’s legitimacy and thus its ability to govern. In certain societies, a weak national identity can have disastrous consequences, as is evident in some struggling developing countries, such as Myanmar and Nigeria, and in some failed states, such as Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria.

 

THE CASE FOR LIBERAL NATIONALISM

 

This argument may seem similar to ones made by Hazony, the conservative Israeli scholar, in his 2018 book, The Virtue of Nationalism, in which he advocates a global order based on the sovereignty of nation-states. He makes an important point in warning against the tendency of liberal countries, such as the United States, to go too far in seeking to remake the rest of the world in their own image. But he is wrong in assuming that the existing countries are clearly demarcated cultural units and that a peaceful global order can be built by accepting them as they are. Today’s countries are social constructions that are the byproducts of historical struggles that often involved conquest, violence, forced assimilation, and the deliberate manipulation of cultural symbols. There are better and worse forms of national identity, and societies can exercise agency in choosing among them.

In particular, if national identity is based on fixed characteristics such as race, ethnicity, or religious heritage, then it becomes a potentially exclusionary category that violates the liberal principle of equal dignity. Although there is no necessary contradiction between the need for national identity and liberal universalism, there is nonetheless a powerful potential point of tension between the two principles. When based on fixed characteristics, national identity can turn into aggressive and exclusive nationalism, as it did in Europe during the first part of the twentieth century.

For this reason, liberal societies should not formally recognize groups based on fixed identities such as race, ethnicity, or religious heritage. There are times, of course, when this becomes inevitable, and liberal principles fail to apply. In many parts of the world, ethnic or religious groups have occupied the same territory for generations and have their own thick cultural and linguistic traditions. In the Balkans, the Middle East, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, ethnic or religious identity is de facto an essential characteristic for most people, and assimilating them into a broader national culture is highly unrealistic. It is possible to organize a form of liberal politics around several cultural units; India, for example, recognizes multiple national languages and has in the past permitted its states to set their own policies with regard to education and legal systems. Federalism and the concomitant devolution of powers to subnational units are often necessary in such diverse countries. Power can be formally allocated to different groups defined by their cultural identity in a structure that political scientists call “consociationalism.” Although this has worked reasonably well in the Netherlands, the practice has been disastrous in places such as Bosnia, Iraq, and Lebanon, where identity groups see themselves locked in a zero-sum struggle. In societies in which cultural groups have not yet hardened into self-regarding units, it is therefore much better to deal with citizens as individuals rather than as members of identity groups.

On the other hand, there are other aspects of national identity that can be adopted voluntarily and therefore shared more broadly, such as literary traditions, historical narratives, and language, food, and sports. Catalonia, Quebec, and Scotland are all regions with distinct historical and cultural traditions, and they all include nationalist partisans seeking complete separation from the country to which they are linked. There is little doubt that these regions would continue to be liberal societies respecting individual rights were they to separate, just as the Czech Republic and Slovakia did after they became separate countries in 1993.

National identity represents obvious dangers but also an opportunity. It is a social construct, and it can be shaped to support, rather than undermine, liberal values. Many countries have historically been molded out of diverse populations that feel a strong sense of community based on political principles or ideals rather than deterministic group categories. Australia, Canada, France, India, and the United States are all countries that in recent decades have sought to construct national identities based on political principles rather than race, ethnicity, or religion. The United States has gone through a long and painful process of redefining what it means to be an American, progressively removing barriers to citizenship based on class, race, and gender—although this process is still incomplete and has experienced many setbacks. In France, the construction of a national identity began with the French Revolution’s Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen, which established an ideal of citizenship based on a common language and culture. In the mid-twentieth century, Australia and Canada were countries with dominant white-majority populations and restrictive laws regarding immigration and citizenship, such as the notorious “White Australia” policy, which kept out immigrants from Asia. Both, however, reconstructed their national identities on nonracial lines after the 1960s and opened themselves up to massive immigration. Today, both countries have larger foreign-born populations than does the United States, with little of the United States’ polarization and white backlash.

Nonetheless, the difficulty of forging a common identity in sharply divided democracies should not be underestimated. Most contemporary liberal societies were built on top of historical nations whose understandings of national identity had been forged through illiberal methods. France, Germany, Japan, and South Korea were all nations before they became liberal democracies; the United States, as many have noted, was a state before it became a nation. The process of defining the American nation in liberal political terms has been long, arduous, and periodically violent, and even today that process is being challenged by people on both the left and the right with sharply competing narratives about the country’s origins.

Liberalism would be in trouble if people saw it as nothing more than a mechanism for peacefully managing diversity, without a broader sense of national purpose. People who have experienced violence, war, and dictatorship generally long to live in a liberal society, as Europeans did in the period after 1945. But as people get used to a peaceful life under a liberal regime, they tend to take that peace and order for granted and start longing for a politics that will direct them to higher ends. In 1914, Europe had been largely free of devastating conflict for nearly a century, and masses of people were happy to march off to war despite the enormous material progress that had occurred in the interim.

The world has perhaps arrived at a similar point in human history: it has been free from large-scale interstate war for three-quarters of a century and has, in the meantime, seen a massive increase in global prosperity that has produced equally massive social change. The European Union was created as an antidote to the nationalism that had led to the world wars and in that respect has been successful beyond all hopes. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine augurs more disarray and violence ahead.

At this juncture, two very different futures present themselves. If Putin is successful in undermining Ukrainian independence and democracy, the world will return to an era of aggressive and intolerant nationalism reminiscent of the early twentieth century. The United States will not be immune from this trend, as populists such as Trump aspire to replicate Putin’s authoritarian ways. On the other hand, if Putin leads Russia into a debacle of military and economic failure, the chance remains to relearn the liberal lesson that power unconstrained by law leads to national disaster and to revive the ideals of a free and democratic world

 

FRANCIS FUKUYAMA is Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University and the author of the forthcoming book Liberalism and Its Discontents (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2022), from which this essay is adapted.