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Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;

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quinta-feira, 22 de novembro de 2012

Bretton Woods: present at the creation (transcripts found)

Transcript of 1944 Bretton Woods Conference Found at Treasury

Associated Press
Acting Secretary of State Dean Acheson, standing at center, and representatives of 28 Allied nations met in Washington in 1945 to sign the pact reached at the Bretton Woods conference.
WASHINGTON — A Treasury economist rummaging in the department’s library has stumbled on a historical treasure hiding in plain sight: a transcript of the Bretton Woods conference in 1944 that cast the foundations of the modern international monetary system.

The Bretton Woods Transcripts

The Center for Financial Stability has included links to the transcripts on its web site.
International Monetary Fund, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
John Maynard Keynes addressed the Bretton Woods conference, where the International Monetary Fund was created.
Historians had never known that a transcript existed for the event held in the heat of World War II, when delegates from 44 allied nations fighting Hitler gathered in the mountains of New Hampshire to create the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. But there were three copies in archives and libraries around Washington that had never been made public, until now.
“It’s as if someone handed us Madison’s notes on the debate over the Constitution,” said Eric Rauchway, a historian the University of California, Davis.
Economic historians who have viewed the transcript say it adds color and detail to the historical record, an already thick one given the many contemporaneous and subsequent accounts of Bretton Woods. The transcript seems to contain no great surprises, but it sheds light on the intense debates as the war raged abroad.
It depicts John Maynard Keynes, the British economist, hurrying to marshal support for the broad agreements on international finance. It underscores the tremendous power then wielded by Britain and, especially, the United States. It also shows the seeds of contemporary disputes being sown.
For instance, seven decades ago, a number of poorer or smaller countries were protesting their International Monetary Fund quotas, which determine power in the fund. Many of those countries, including China and India, are still pushing for more influence today.
In one section of the transcript, an American representative lays out a proposal for apportioning power in the fund and underscores what was at stake, with the war coming to its bloody climax in Europe.
“We fight together on sodden battlefields. We sail together on the majestic blue. We fly together in the ethereal sky,” said Fred M. Vinson, who later became chief justice of the United States. “The test of this conference is whether we can walk together, solve our economic problems, down the road to peace as we today march to victory.”
But the response was not one of absolute unity.
“In spite of the very eloquent and moving speech of the United States delegate, on behalf of the Iranian delegation I wish to state that the quota proposed for my country is entirely unsatisfactory,” a delegate from Tehran responded.
Then, a delegate from China added: “I hesitate greatly to sound a note of discord at this conference. It has been the effort of the Chinese delegation to promote harmony and the success of this great common enterprise. But every delegation has its difficulties.”
The Netherlands, Greece, Australia, India, Yugoslavia, New Zealand, France, Ethiopia, Norway and Britain then added their comments and objections. “I think that a lot of people have thought of Bretton Woods as being a stitch-up job between United Kingdom and the United States,” Mr. Rauchway said. “But that’s overstated, and it’s definitely visible in this transcript. You can see the poorer countries fighting their own corner.”
Kurt Schuler a Treasury Department economist, was browsing in an “out of the way” section of uncataloged material in the library two years ago when he came across the Bretton Woods document. He flipped through and saw some remarks by Keynes that he was not familiar with, sort of the economists’ equivalent of a Bob Dylan fan finding unknown lyrics.
“I checked them against Keynes’s collected works,” Mr. Schuler said. “And I knew I had something.”
His research revealed that there were three copies of the transcript that scores of economic historians were not aware of: the version at the Treasury Department; one in the National Archives; and the third in the International Monetary Fund archives.
In his spare time, Mr. Schuler set about turning the yellowed transcript into a book, with a co-editor, Andrew Rosenberg. It took a tremendous amount of work, Mr. Schuler said. They read the transcript aloud into transcription software. They added hyperlinks to documents referenced at the conference, and wrote summaries, annotations and historical notes.
This week, the polished transcript was published as an 800-page e-book by the Center for Financial Stability, a nonprofit group based in New York that researches financial markets, where Mr. Schuler is a senior fellow and Mr. Rosenberg a research associate.
“Everyone thinks they know what happened at Bretton Woods, but what they know has been filtered by generations of historical accounts,” Barry Eichengreen, a professor or economics and political science at the University of California, Berkeley, said in a statement. “International monetary history will never be the same.”
The transcript provides “insight in how it was that they were able to maintain a pace of work which allowed them to reach two really big agreements, on the I.M.F. and the World Bank, within a space of three weeks,” Mr. Schuler said. “Keynes was something of a task master,” he added.
Benn Steil, a senior fellow and director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, said readers can see the British Empire “disintegrating before your eyes,” in the transcript. “The Indians are so vociferous that the British are ripping them off. The British are both furious and mortified that their colony would do this to them,” he said, describing a dispute over debts with the colonies.
“Bretton Woods was itself 95 percent Kabuki theater,” he said. “But it’s interesting Kabuki theater.”

quarta-feira, 21 de novembro de 2012

Louis Pasteur: savant humaniste (190 ans de la naissance)


Enquanto isso, na América Latina... paises se fecham...

Cúpula asiática vai impulsionar criação de gigantesco bloco comercial

Hans Spross / Marcio Damasceno
Ásia – DW – 19/11/12.
Cúpula da Asean no Camboja leva adiante negociações para criar área de livre comércio com 3,5 bilhões de consumidores, incluindo China, Japão, Índia e Austrália.
As nações do Sudeste Asiático realizam nesta semana, durante a cúpula da Associação de Países do Sudeste Asiático (Asean, em inglês), uma rodada de conversações com países vizinhos para formar uma gigantesca área de livre comércio.
O projeto, chamado Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), quer incluir 16 nações – os 10 membros da Asean, mais China, Japão, Coreia do Sul, Índia, Austrália, Nova Zelândia – responsáveis hoje por um terço do comércio e da produção econômica do planeta e com mais de 3,5 bilhões de consumidores.
Os planos preveem que as negociações para a criação dessa parceria econômica regional estejam concluídas já em 2015. O projeto deve ser facilitado por vários acordos de livre comércio já existentes entre a Asean e os seis países parceiros. Fazem parte da Asean Myanmar, Brunei, Camboja, Filipinas, Indonésia, Laos, Malásia, Cingapura, Tailândia e Vietnã.
O primeiro-ministro do Camboja, Hun Sen, quer lançar as negociações para o RCEP nesta quinta-feira (22/11), último dia da cúpula realizada em Phnom Penh, capital do Camboja. O secretário-geral da Asean, Surin Pitsuwan, afirmou que o RCEP ajudará a fortalecer a tendência de migração do poder econômico global do Ocidente para a Ásia.
“A tendência já existe. Agora, o próximo passo é consolidar. Este vai ser um grande salto para a frente se nós pudermos realizá-lo”, declarou. Analistas creem que o bloco pode ser um contrapeso para o Acordo da Associação Transpacífico (TPP), outro projeto de área de livre comércio em negociação entre EUA e outros dez países.
Membros do governo norte-americano esperam que o TPP avance para a formação de uma região de livre comércio das economias da Ásia-Pacífico que vincule América Latina e Ásia através dos EUA. Mas uma diferença significativa seria que, enquanto o TPP exclui a China, a segunda maior economia do mundo deverá ser um membro importante no RCEP.
A China tem relutado a se unir ao TPP, preferindo se concentrar num acordo de livre comércio centrado na Ásia, onde o país tem mais influência.
Disputas territoriais
Há algumas preocupações de que uma série de disputas territoriais marítimas entre os principais participantes do RCEP possam dificultar as negociações. Relações diplomáticas e comerciais do Japão com a China têm sido severamente abaladas neste ano devido a disputas crescentes em torno de ilhas no Mar da China Oriental.
Japão e Coreia do Sul se envolveram numa disputa similar sobre outras ilhas, enquanto China e alguns membros da Asean também têm disputas envolvendo territórios no Mar da China Meridional.
Mas o secretário-geral da Asean, Surin Pitsuwan, afirmou que tais disputas podem ser gerenciadas separadamente e que a tendência de relações econômicas e laços comerciais mais estreitos não pode ser interrompida. Surin disse, ainda, que o RCEP tem vantagem em relação ao TPP porque a Asean já tem pactos de livre comércio com China, Índia, Japão, Coreia do Sul, Austrália e Nova Zelândia.
A Asean deve se tornar realidade em 2015, quando bens e serviços deverão poder circular livremente pela região, objetivo perseguido pelo projeto desde o final de 1970. Uma dificuldade será unir níveis de desenvolvimento muito diferentes, incluindo tanto a pobre Myanmar quanto a rica Singapura.
Problemas com a China
As disputas do Mar da China Meridional pairam como uma sombra sobre a visão de harmonia do livre comércio do projeto Asean. Nele, existe há tempos a ideia de se chegar a um acordo entre o bloco e a China através de um “código de conduta”, citado numa declaração conjunta em 2002, mas que não chegou a ser colocado em prática.
Não só a China bloqueia uma abordagem cooperativa multilateral para o problema da área do Mar da China Meridional. Na reunião dos ministros do Exterior da Asean em julho, o Camboja, que atualmente ocupa a presidência da Asean, evitou a menção da disputa territorial na declaração final, que acabou sendo deixada completamente de fora.
Mesmo assim, na preparação para a atual cúpula no Camboja, os participantes já falaram em um “primeiro esboço de um código de conduta regional no Mar da China Meridional”, como comunicou a Asean. A presidente das Filipinas, Benigno Aquino, apelou pouco antes do início da cúpula para que a Asean fale com uma só voz com relação à disputas territoriais com a China.
Seja qual for abordagem diplomática do problema, o conflito não deve ser resolvido. Porque mesmo se a China concordar com tal código, que deve conter apenas uma lista de regras de conduta, Pequim não desistirá de reivindicar sua soberania sobre o Mar da China Meridional.

Classificacao de risco: Argentina em nivel de... lixo

Argentina: Moody’s advierte de impacto de fallo en EEUU sobre el pago de deuda

Infolatam/Efe
Nueva York, 19 de noviembre de 2012
Las claves
  • Moody's, que otorga al país latinoamericano una nota de B3, en la categoría de bono basura, añade que por ahora esta decisión judicial no repercutirá sobre la calificación de su deuda, puesto que cualquier modificación dependerá "de los detalles de la decisión final, su ejecución y la respuesta de Argentina".
El fallo de un tribunal de Nueva York que obliga a Argentina a pagar a los acreedores que no aceptaron sus reestructuraciones de deuda en 2005 y 2010 tiene el potencial de ocasionar pérdidas a quienes sí accedieron a esos canjes, advirtió la agencia de calificación Moody’s.
“Desde el punto de vista de la calificación, la cuestión clave es si el fallo provocará pérdidas a los tenedores de bonos reestructurados”, aseguró la agencia de medición de riesgo en un informe, titulado “Dictámen legal plantea interrogantes sobre los pagos de deuda de Argentina”.
Moody’s, que otorga al país latinoamericano una nota de B3, en la categoría de bono basura, añade que por ahora esta decisión judicial no repercutirá sobre la calificación de su deuda, puesto que cualquier modificación dependerá “de los detalles de la decisión final, su ejecución y la respuesta de Argentina”.
El pasado 26 de octubre, el Tribunal de Apelaciones del Segundo Circuito de Nueva York ratificó la decisión del juez federal Thomas Griesa, quien decidió en febrero que Argentina debía pagar también a los acreedores que se negaron a participar en las reestructuraciones de deuda y no solamente a aquellos que sí accedieron al trueque.
Además, ese tribunal determinó que Argentina no podía realizar ningún pago a los acreedores que aceptaron los canjes mientras siga negándose a pagar a quienes rechazaron el acuerdo, entre los que se encuentra el fondo NML, involucrado en la retención en Ghana de la fragata “Libertad” de la Armada argentina.
La corte de apelaciones ha devuelto el caso al juez Griesa para que clarifique cuánto y cómo deberá pagar Argentina, así como cuál será el impacto de este fallo sobre las terceras partes implicadas en este proceso, como Bank of New York Mellon, encargado de transferir los pagos del Gobierno a los tenedores de deuda.
Por su parte, el país latinoamericano ha reiterado que no pagará a quienes no aceptaron las reestructuraciones pese a este fallo y argumentó en un escrito la semana pasada que las cortes de EE.UU. no tienen jurisdicción para interferir en los pagos de su deuda realizados fuera del territorio estadounidense.
“El escenario base de Moody’s es que Argentina intentará seguir pagando la deuda reestructurada sin cambios en el tipo de cambio, interés o vencimiento, sin ocasionar así pérdidas a los inversores, pero este acercamiento puede chocar con el objetivo del Gobierno de negar pagos a quienes no aceptaron los canjes”, añadió la calificadora.

Classificacao de risco: a publica e a privada (em nada diferentes)

Os franceses, que costumam se revoltar contra o termômetro, mas bem menos contra a febre, reclamam das agências de notação de riscos soberanos, que eles acreditam estar dominadas por interesses privatistas, capitalistas, neoliberais de especuladores de Wall Street, apenas interessados em ganhar dinheiro com a desgraça alheia.
Que surpresa! Uma agência pública, portanto isenta dos vieses de mercado, acaba de dar à França a mesma nota que lhe deu a Moody's, esta acusada imediatamente de viés negativo contra o país dos queijos e das greves.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

La fondation Bertelsmann présente "sa" notation de la France

 
Le Monde.fr |
Bertelsmann souhaite créer une fondation indépendante dont les indicateurs seraient à la fois macroéconomiques mais aussi prospectifs.

Hasard du calendrier, douze heures après l'annonce de la dégradation de la France par l'agence Moody's, la fondation Bertelsmann présentait, à Berlin, mardi 20 novembre, "sa" notation de la France. Cette fondation privée, considérée comme la plus influente du pays, avait dévoilé son projet en avril en marge de l'Assemblée générale du Fonds monétaire international à New York.

Pour répondre aux critiques visant les agences de notation – un oligopole dont les membres ne sont pas indépendants et se contentent de données macro-économiques — Bertelsmann souhaite créer une fondation indépendante dont les indicateurs seraient à la fois macroéconomiques mais aussi prospectifs. Pour ce faire, Bertelsmann estime avoir besoin d'un capital de départ d'environ 310 millions d'euros (400 millions de dollars) qu'elle aimerait recueillir auprès des membres du G20 et des grandes institutions internationales.
A quoi ressembleraient ces notations ? La fondation a présenté mardi cinq pays-pilotes : l'Allemagne, le Brésil, la France, l'Italie et le Japon. Chacun a été jugé selon treize critères (eux-mêmes résultant de l'agrégat de sous-critères) : cinq critères macro-économiques et huit prospectifs.
Les fondamentaux économiques, la politique budgétaire, la politique monétaire, le risque financier, la dépendance vis-à-vis de l'étranger constituent les cinq critères classiques. Les critères prospectifs sont le respect de la loi par le gouvernement et l'administration, la transparence et la prévention de la corruption, la cohésion sociale, la qualité du système d'enseignement, la capacité du gouvernement à définir des priorités stratégiques, la mise en place des réformes annoncées, la flexibilité du gouvernement et sa capacité à innover, la capacité des gouvernements à gérer des crises.
Les critères macro-économiques représentent 40 % de la note finale dans les pays développés et 50 % chez les émergents. Les pays sont notés de 1 à 10. Ceux obtenant plus de 8 bénéficient d'un AAA, ceux ayant entre 7,70 et 7,99 d'un AA+, ceux entre 7,30 et 7,69 d'un AA, etc. La France, avec une note de 7,9 (8,2 pour la macro-économie et 7,7 pour les critères qualitatifs) obtient un solide AA+.
"PAS TROP PESSIMISTE" SUR LA FRANCE
L'Allemagne, avec son 8,1 (8,8 pour le quantitatif et 7,6 pour le qualitatif) jouit d'un AAA mais avec "perspective négative". Par ailleurs, l'Italie obtient 7,2 (AA-), le Brésil 6,8 (A+) et le Japon 6,0 (A-). "Ces notes sont des opinions qui peuvent et devraient être discutées. (...) La seule et unique question à laquelle elles répondent est : quelle est la capacité et la volonté de l'Etat à rembourser ses dettes ?" expliquent les dirigeants de la fondation.
L'expert qui a travaillé en août et en septembre sur la France est Henrik Uterwedde, un économiste allemand parfaitement francophone travaillant à l'institut franco-allemand de Ludwigsburg. Celui-ci a travaillé seul – ce qu'il déplore — mais ses appréciations ont été discutées par les permanents de la fondation Bertelsmann qui le jugeaient "un peu sévère" par rapport à ses collègues chargés de noter d'autres pays puis soumis à l'avis d'une demi-douzaine d'experts connaissant bien la France.
"Ma note est totalement dans le ton de la conférence de presse de François Hollande. Je trouve que Moody's arrive trop tard. Le gouvernement français a établi le même constat. Je ne suis pas trop pessimiste car la France a montré, notamment en 1983, qu'elle est capable de changer de cap si le pouvoir exécutif le décide", explique M. Uterwedde qui porte sur la France un avis moins sévère que nombre de ses compatriotes.

Newcomer to Ratings Game Gives France a Dim View

FRANKFURT — Hours after the French government suffered a debt downgrade by the ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service, a new nonprofit agency offered a similar critique Tuesday.
The criticism came from the International Nonprofit Credit Rating Agency, or Incra, a pilot project intended to show the feasibility of a nonprofit agency that would provide an alternative to the three main ratings agencies: Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings.
Those agencies have come under fire for failing to warn of the financial crisis and overlooking huge risks in the debt market, including loans for subprime real estate as well as the Greek government’s debt pile. The agencies usually get their funding from the creditors whose debt they assess. In the case of sovereign debt, the agencies have been accused of timidity for fear of provoking officials whose governments would probably have to pay higher borrowing costs.
French officials played down the Moody’s decision, issued late Monday, and sought to blame the country’s previous rightist governments for the economic challenges.
“This rating change doesn’t call into question either our economic fundamentals or the reforms engaged in by the government, nor the high standard of our credit,” Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said at a news conference.
The downgrade, he added, “is punishment for the situation we have inherited, which hasn’t stopped deteriorating for 10 years.”
President François Hollande, a Socialist, took office in May. For the previous decade, France was led by Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, both from the right.
Incra is an attempt by the Bertelsmann Foundation, financed by a German media conglomerate, to show how a ratings agency could be structured without the potential conflicts of interest the commercial agencies face.
The European Commission has stepped up regulation of ratings agencies while also requiring banks and bond funds to take more responsibility for analyzing the creditworthiness of the governments and companies they invest in. There has also been talk of creating a European credit ratings agency.
Annette Heuser, executive director of the Bertelsmann Foundation in Washington, said the organization hoped that the Group of 20 countries, which have also expressed concern about the current debt rating system, would take the lead in creating a nonprofit ratings agency.
“We need an international solution that brings in the emerging economies,” Ms. Heuser said.
It was the first report on France by Incra, so there were no previous ratings to compare to. The agency gave France a score of 7.9 out of 10, or AA+. Incra had given Germany a rating of 8.1, or AAA–; and 7.2 for Italy, or AA–.
On Tuesday, Incra also rated Brazil, which received a score of 6.8, or A+; and Japan, which received a score of 6.0, or A–, because of its high debt and stagnant economy.
Incra cited what it said was France’s slow growth, heavily regulated labor market and a pension system that could become unaffordable over time. France could also be required to help pay for the bailout of other euro zone countries as well as its own banks, Incra said.
Moody’s cited some of the same factors in its decision to downgrade France. But Ms. Heuser said that Incra’s methodology looked not only at economic data but also at indicators of how well society functions, including the efficiency of the court system and the level of corruption.
“Even if we come to a similar conclusion, the underlying analysis is completely different,” Ms. Heuser said.
She said that Incra also believed that the French educational system had been declining, which hurt the country’s score.
In its decision to downgrade French debt, Moody’s cited a worse outlook for government finances as a result of France’s fading competitiveness and “the longstanding rigidities of its labor, goods and service markets.” It also warned that the country’s resilience to shocks from the euro crisis was declining. At the same time, Moody’s said, France faces greater fiscal obligations from developments including the bailouts of other euro zone countries.
Moody’s decision came as no surprise, as Standard & Poor’s had stripped France of its triple-A rating in January. The French economy has stagnated for most of this year, growing just 0.2 percent in the third quarter from the second quarter. The euro zone as a whole has fallen back into recession.
Fitch still rates France as AAA, and Mr. Moscovici pointed out that investors had largely ignored the S.&P. downgrade: the country’s borrowing costs remain near record lows.
The United States, which lost its triple-A rating from S.&P. in August 2011, has also been able to borrow at historically low rates.
David Jolly reported from Paris.
A version of this article appeared in print on November 21, 2012, in The International Herald Tribune

O ceu carrtelizado (nos EUA); no Brasil, oligopolizado...

Competição, mercados livres no céu, é o que não temos. As viagens ficam mais longas e mais caras...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Op-Ed Contributor

A Free Market in the Sky

Washington
Ron Regé Jr.
AS the holiday season approaches, the major airlines are signaling to some passengers to take a hike. At least that’s what travelers might infer from the smaller number of flights being scheduled at many of the nation’s airports.
Between 2007 and 2012, airlines cut the number of domestic passenger flights by 14 percent, according to the Department of Transportation — with the biggest drops occurring at midsize and smaller regional airports. The five heartland hubs of Cincinnati, Cleveland, Memphis, Pittsburgh and St. Louis have lost a stunning 40 percent of their scheduled flights.
The reason is simple: airlines have decided that the best way to earn a healthy return on their investment is to maintain tight discipline on capacity. That’s a fancy way of saying they want their planes to fly as full as sardine cans. And the way they’ve been accomplishing this is by concentrating service on the big domestic and international markets and by cutting flights in smaller, less traveled ones.
That’s smart business, of course. Why expend the same dollars on jet fuel, pilots and Sun Chips on a flight that’s likely to leave half-empty from Memphis when you can trim the number of scheduled departures from the same airport and really pack them in on each flight?
But this, of course, leaves Aunt Sally in Sarasota, Fla., with fewer options to visit family during the holidays; it leaves millions of us with longer boarding and exiting delays on our planes — and, yes, it helps drive up fare prices, too. It’s that old rule of supply and demand. Travelocity, an online booking site, has found airline ticket prices for this pre-Thanksgiving period to be 10 percent higher on average than last year.
Unfortunately for travelers, this situation is unlikely to change anytime soon. With five airlines now serving 85 percent of the domestic market — four, if American Airlines and US Airways merge, as industry analysts expect — the major carriers are worrying less about the one factor that could disrupt their cozy, cram-’em-in strategy: competition.
That is, unless policy makers do what they should have done a long time ago and allow foreign airlines, including discount carriers like Ryanair and global players like Qantas and British Airways, to serve domestic routes in the United States. Why, after all, should an industry that has ingeniously used free-market principles to squeeze the most revenue out of each middle seat be protected from competing in a real free market?
As things stand now, the United States allows foreign airlines to serve its major cities as part of international agreements — conventions that have been around for decades. Foreign airlines have never posed a threat to national security or to the safety of air travelers; there’s no indication that such carriers have resisted American security measures in the past or any reason to think they’d violate any protocols required for domestic routes either.
Competition from foreign airlines would put downward pressure on wages, something that union workers may object to. But by reducing fares and expanding service, it would also increase the demand for air travel and related services — thus, presumably, creating additional jobs during a time of persistently high unemployment.
Airline travelers, in fact, have already benefited significantly from increased competition among international carriers. Beginning with a successful agreement with the Netherlands in 1992, the United States has pressed for liberal free-trade pacts, called “open skies” agreements, with several nations.
In collaboration with Jia Yan of Washington State University, I have estimated that travelers have gained at least $5 billion annually as a result of lower international fares and additional flights generated by open skies agreements.
By allowing foreign airlines to serve American domestic markets, the process of creating a truly free market in airline services here would be complete and, as in the case of international markets, would provide travelers the benefit of more flight choices and lower fares.
Naturally, domestic airlines are likely to oppose such a policy. But they should realize that their current strategy to maximize profits — reducing flights and raising fares — runs the danger of alienating the American flying public and spawning new regulation.
One possible solution is to take a half-step toward opening up domestic markets and allow foreign carriers to serve any midsize and regional airport in the United States that has lost service in the past few years. New entrants would be able to integrate those markets with their international routes, something that could put many smaller American cities on the global business map.
Soon, Aunt Sally might enjoy the service on Singapore Airlines en route to Cincinnati. It’s a short flight from Sarasota — but the hot face towels are a dream.
Clifford Winston is a senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution and author of “Last Exit: Privatization and Deregulation of the U.S. Transportation System.”

terça-feira, 20 de novembro de 2012

Livro PRIVATIZE JA': Hoje (20/11) e todos os demais dias do ano...

Repostando um convite, no qual sou parte interessada e, portanto, altamente suspeito de conivência com o tema, o livro, o autor, a ideia, os princípios, as motivações e as finalidades das privatizações no Brasil. Para todos os interessados, a ocasião de fazer um bom debate, ou seja:
TUDO O QUE VOCÊ SEMPRE QUIS SABER SOBRE AS PRIVATIZAÇÕES E NUNCA TEVE A QUEM PERGUNTAR...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Tenho o prazer de transmitir o convite abaixo para um lançamento-debate em torno das questões do intervencionismo governamental e das propostas de retomada das privatizações no Brasil, no qual atuarei como um apresentador-comentarista do conhecido economista liberal Rodrigo Constantino, que vem do Rio de Janeiro especialmente para este lançamento em première.
Em meu blog, coloquei a apresentação geral do livro, neste link:

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

LeYa e Livraria Cultura convidam para o lançamento de 
Privatize Já
de Rodrigo Constantino
Dia 20/11, a partir das 19hs

Debate com o autor e Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Livraria Cultura – Shopping CasaPark
SGCV – Sul, Lote 22 – Loja 4-A
Zona Industrial – Guará - DF

ASEAN e EUA: uma relacao mutuamente benefica; e o Mercosul?

Enquanto a Asean estimula todos os tipos de interação recíproca, não apenas internamente ao grupo, mas igualmente entre o grupo e seus principais parceiros na região (China, Japão, Taiwan e Coreia do Sul) e, crescentemente, com os EUA, o Mercosul parece que pretende praticar a velha política do insulamento soberano, a recusa de interagir com o "império", visando, como já disse um ministro particularmente infeliz nessa área, preservar sua independência e reunir-se "sem tutela" (o que nada mais representa senão um infantil antiamericanismo primário).
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

U.S. INSTITUTIONAL SUPPORT FOR ASEAN. 
Fact Sheet, U.S. Department of State
November 19. 2012 
 
On November 19 and 20, Secretary Clinton accompanied President Obama to the U.S.-ASEAN Leaders Meeting and East Asia Summit (EAS) in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Their attendance at these events for the second consecutive year reaffirms U.S. commitment to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and to Southeast Asia as a whole. At EAS and the U.S.-ASEAN Leaders Meeting, the United States highlighted our broad engagement with the region across ASEAN’s political-security, economic, and socio-cultural pillars and introduced initiatives to deepen these ties. EAS provided an opportunity to highlight the United States’ enduring commitment to supporting ASEAN as it becomes a driver of peace, security, prosperity, and democracy in the region. The United States has demonstrated our institutional support for ASEAN in a number of ways.
The U.S. Mission to ASEAN: In June 2010, the United States became the first non-ASEAN country to establish a dedicated Mission to ASEAN in Jakarta. Under the leadership of Ambassador David L. Carden, the United States’ first resident Ambassador to ASEAN, the Mission provides a venue for regular engagement and cooperation with ASEAN as well as the most visible symbol of our commitment to ASEAN’s success.
Support for U.S.-ASEAN Scholarship: Building on more than 60 years of supporting scholar and student exchanges between the United States and countries in the region through the Fulbright Program, recruitment for the pilot U.S.-ASEAN Fulbright initiative started this fall, with the first group of exchange scholars beginning study in early 2013. The United States also supports both U.S. and ASEAN Member States’ scholars working on issues central to the region through symposia held at American University’s ASEAN Studies Center in Washington DC. Our participation in the Brunei-U.S. English Language Enrichment Project for ASEAN reflects a commitment to help unify the diverse members of ASEAN, improve English language capacity, and advance educational and teaching opportunities in the region. This five-year, $25 million initiative is supported by the governments of Brunei and the United States with the East-West Center in Hawaii as an implementing coordinator, and the first cohort of 59 government officials and teacher-trainers traveled to Universiti Brunei Darussalam and East-West Center this fall.
Institutional Support in Disaster Management: Since mid-2011, the United States has supported a full-time, resident Advisor to the ASEAN Secretariat’s ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Unit and to broader Disaster Management efforts through the Secretariat and ASEAN Centre for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (AHA Centre). The Advisor works closely with ASEAN officials and our fellow ASEAN Dialogue Partners to oversee activities such as:
The installation of a multi-hazard Disaster Monitoring and Response System in the AHA Centre. Along with Japan, the United States is providing the hardware and software AHA Centre operators need to improve response times and use relief resources more efficiently.
Building the search and rescue capacity of ASEAN Member States and creating guidelines for mobilization of assets for disaster relief across the region.
Supporting efforts to share best practices in Peacekeeping Operations.
Promoting Public-Private Dialogue Economic Partnerships: The United States has partnered with ASEAN in private-sector outreach in several areas:
Secretary Clinton opened the first-ever U.S.-ASEAN Business Forum in July in Siem Reap, which brought government and private actors from across the spectrum together to find ways to further economic engagement and integration.
The U.S. Trade and Development Agency’s first connectivity event, which brought representatives together from ASEAN governments, seven U.S. Government agencies, and several private businesses. Participants shared expertise in disaster reduction and disaster recovery, and attendees showcased technology which enables more effective disaster preparation and emergency response.
We have supported the ASEAN Single Window Steering Committee, which incorporates the views of businesses active in the region into the planning for the ASEAN Single Window project, a state-of-the-art regional electronic customs clearance information sharing system, which will help to enable the integration of the broader ASEAN economic community.
Economic Partnerships:
At the U.S.-ASEAN Leaders Meeting, the United States and ASEAN announced agreement to develop an Expanded Economic Engagement (E3) initiative. The U.S.-ASEAN E3 will provide capacity building and technical assistance to ASEAN members as they move toward high-standard trade obligations. The E3 will also prioritize the negotiation of a U.S.-ASEAN Trade Facilitation Agreement, a U.S.-ASEAN Bilateral (Regional) Investment Treaty, and a U.S.-ASEAN Agreement on Information and Communication Technology (ICT).
We support triennial conferences to encourage private sector engagement with ASEAN’s food security agenda. The U.S.-funded Maximizing Agricultural Revenue through Knowledge, Enterprise Development, and Trade (MARKET) Program is helping to carry these critical private-public partnerships. We will support the Second Annual Dialogue between ASEAN Agriculture Ministers and food industry business leaders in September.
ASEAN Science & Technology Cooperation:
Recognizing the key role that science, technology, and health expertise play in promoting sustained economic development, at the U.S.-ASEAN Leaders Meeting the United States and ASEAN agreed to launch the U.S.-ASEAN Innovation in Science through Partners in Regional Engagement (INSPIRE) initiative. Through INSPIRE, the United States will enhance our scientific engagement and exchange across these fields with ASEAN, complementing the existing, excellent bilateral cooperation between the United States and ASEAN member states.
The United States funded an expert to work closely with the ASEAN Secretariat to improve IT operations and prepare a medium-term IT strategy that was presented to the Committee of Permanent Representatives. In early September, the ASEAN Secretariat and United States will jointly launch a new ASEAN Web Portal with a redesign of the front end of the website, the creation of central repository for past, current and future ASEAN documents, and a user-friendly interface with a searchable function.
U.S.-ASEAN Eminent Persons Group (EPG): President Obama announced the names of the three representatives, Ambassador Charlene Barshefsky (a former U.S. Trade Representative), Muhtar Kent (Chairman and CEO of the Coca-Cola Company), and Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy (former U.S. Ambassador to Singapore, China, and Indonesia,) in November 2011 at the U.S.-ASEAN Leaders Meeting. This year, the group met with their ASEAN counterparts in Manila and Rangoon. In these meetings and through extensive additional consultations, the group formulated a report containing recommendations on enhanced U.S.-ASEAN engagement for consideration by President Obama, Secretary Clinton, and ASEAN Leaders. The EPG report offers expert insights on topics including engagement and integration among ASEAN Member States across all three Pillars of the ASEAN Community: political/security, economic, and socio-cultural. This important Presidential initiative demonstrates our deepening engagement with multilateral institutions in the Asia-Pacific, and specifically with ASEAN, as we celebrate the 35th anniversary of the establishment of the U.S.-ASEAN Dialogue this year.
ASEAN Secretariat Committee of Permanent Representatives Visit: This September, the United States sponsored a trip to Washington, DC and San Francisco, CA for the ASEAN Committee of Permanent Representatives (CPR), led by U.S. Mission to ASEAN Ambassador David L. Carden. The CPR oversees ASEAN Member States’ interactions with the ASEAN Secretariat and Dialogue Partners such as the United States, and includes one Representative from each of the 10 ASEAN Member States. During their visit, the CPR exchanged best practices across a variety of disciplines with officials drawn from U.S. Government, the private sector, think tanks, and universities, with the goal of improving ASEAN’s capacity to promote sustainable development, improve regional rule of law, and create an environment conducive to economic growth across Southeast Asia.
Dialogue Partner/Donor Coordination: The United States places a high priority on outreach and collaboration with our development partners in the region and in helping ASEAN strengthen its role in partner coordination. For example, the USAID-AusAID-ASEAN collaboration with the MTV End Exploitation and Trafficking (EXIT) campaign is highlighting ASEAN’s commitment to end trafficking in persons in cooperation with its Dialogue Partners. We are also coordinating support to the AHA Centre. The United States, Japan, Australia, the EU, and New Zealand are working directly with the AHA Centre and the ASEAN Secretariat to balance the types of assistance from each partner to cover AHA Centre's priority needs for systems, staffing and training. The United States and Canada also co-chair the working group on human rights cooperation with ASEAN.
Defense Liaison Officer: In 2011 the United States Pacific Command (PACOM) deployed a Liaison Officer to the U.S. Mission to ASEAN with the objectives of encouraging information-sharing between DOD and other U.S. agencies on multi-national security programs in Southeast Asia, and encouraging deepening and sustained engagement by DOD in ASEAN defense-related fora such as the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM+) mechanism. Over the past year the Mission's PACOM liaison has assisted with arrangements for the first informal dialogue between the ASEAN Defense Ministers and U.S. Secretary of Defense; coordinated U.S. co-chairmanship with Indonesia of the ADMM+ Expert Working Group on Counterterrorism; and organized a PACOM-sponsored regional workshop on environmental security.
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/11/200825.htm

Franca perde o AAA: Moody's rebaixa o pais

Mais uma tragédia francesa, o que talvez ajude o governo no processo de reforma:

Moody's dégrade la note de la France de Aaa à Aa1

Le Monde.fr avec AFP et Reuters | • Mis à jour le
"La France reste une valeur sûre", a estimé mardi matin la porte-parole du gouvernement, Najat Vallaud-Belkacem.


L'agence de notation Moody's a abaissé lundi 19 novembre la note de crédit de la France de Aaa à Aa1, estimant que les perspectives de croissance économique à long terme du pays étaient notamment affectées par une perte de compétitivité graduelle et continue, et par des rigidités à long terme de ses marchés du travail, des biens et des services.

L'agence a ajouté que cette nouvelle note était assortie d'une perspective négative. Moody's a toutefois souligné que l'ampleur limitée du déclassement de la France reflétait le programme de réformes suivi par le gouvernement ainsi que les perspectives de croissance à long terme.
SANCTION POUR LA GESTION PRÉCÉDENTE, SELON MOSCOVICI

Dans un entretien à Reuters, le ministre des finances, Pierre Moscovici, a dit prendre acte de la décision de Moody's, tout en déclarant que la dette française demeurait parmi les plus liquides et les plus sûres de la zone euro.
"L'agence nous crédite d'une forte maîtrise des finances publiques et de la décision de notre pacte de compétitivité mais s'inquiète de la croissance de la zone euro et de l'insuffisance de réformes structurelles, a estimé Pierre Moscovici. C'est une sanction pour l'absence de réformes passée et pour la gestion de ceux qui nous ont précédés, c'est aussi un encouragement à mettre en œuvre rapidement et fortement les réformes que nous avons décidées et qui vont dans la bonne direction : sérieux budgétaire, stabilisation de la zone euro, pacte de compétitivité."
Le 13 janvier, en pleine campagne présidentielle, l'agence Standard & Poor's avait, la première, abaissé d'un cran la note de la France en réaction à l'aggravation des problèmes politiques, financiers et monétaires de la zone euro. Fitch Ratings, troisième des grandes agences de notation internationales, prévoit de se prononcer courant 2013.
"Moody's nous donne maintenant la même note que Standard & Poor's qui nous a permis de vivre avec des taux d'intérêt bas depuis déjà de très longs mois et la note reste la plus élevée après 'le triple A'", a remarqué M. Moscovici. Prié de dire si le gouvernement maintenait l'objectif de réduire le déficit public à 3 % du PIB fin 2013 après 4,5 % attendu fin 2012, il a répondu : "Absolument, le sérieux budgétaire est un gage de crédibilité auquel nous nous sommes engagés et le pacte de compétitivité devra être mis en œuvre rapidement et fortement."
UN "PETIT AVERTISSEMENT"
Même son de cloche outre-Rhin, où le ministre des finances allemand Wolfgang Schaüble, plutôt connu pour la sévérité de ses jugements, a estimé mardi que "la note de la France est encore très stable", et a appelé à éviter toute dramatisation.

"Notre principal partenaire a reçu un petit avertissement d'une agence de notation (...). On doit aussi éviter toute dramatisation", a-t-il affirmé au Bundestag, lors d'une allocution sur le budget allemand pour 2013. "Nous avons tous intérêt à ce que nous soyons, chacun en Europe, à la hauteur de nos devoirs et nos responsabilités", a ajouté le ministre.
===========

France shrugs off loss of top triple-A credit rating

French finance minister Pierre Moscovici Pierre Moscovici said the downgrade was motivation to pursue structural reforms
The French government has downplayed the importance of rating agency Moody's decision to deprive the country of its top triple-A credit rating.
Moody's downgraded France's debt from Aaa to Aa1, and kept its negative outlook, meaning it could be cut again.
Moody's blamed stalled economic growth, the risk of a Greek euro exit and the risk that France has to contribute to bailing out other eurozone countries.
"Judge us on our results," French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said.
Rival ratings agency Standard & Poor's downgraded France from AAA in January. Of the big three agencies, only Fitch still gives France its top rating.
'Second place' "The rating in no way places a question over the fundamentals of our country's economy - neither the reforms undertaken by the government, nor the quality of the signature on our debt," said Mr Moscovici.
He pointed to the fact that Moody's had only downgraded its rating of the country's long-term debts by one notch, and still gave France's short-term debts its top rating.

Credit ratings in context

Moody's S&P Fitch
Germany
Aaa
AAA
AAA
UK
Aaa
AAA
AAA
US
Aaa
AA+
AAA
France
Aa1
AA-
AAA
Japan
Aa3
AA-
A+
China
Aa3
AA-
A+
Russia
Baa1
BBB
BBB
Italy
Baa2
BBB+
A-
Brazil
Baa2
BBB
BBB
Spain
Baa3
BBB-
BBB
India
Baa3
BBB-
BBB-
Ireland
Ba1
BBB+
BBB+
Portugal
Ba3
BB
BB+
Greece
C
CCC
CCC
Ordered by Moody's rating; eurozone in bold
The finance minister said Moody's decision reinforced the need for the government to pass a package of economic reforms that is proving unpopular with voters.
The ratings agency's move had not affected sentiment on the financial markets, which still held French debts in high regard, the government claimed.
"France still represents sound value. It is in second place just after Germany," said government spokesperson Najat Vallaud-Belkacem, speaking on French radio.
"Even today, investors lend to France in very favourable conditions. For example, we make short-term borrowings at negative rates, and that is going to continue."
Moody's said the primary reason for the downgrade had been France's "persistent structural economic challenges" and the threats they pose to economic growth and the government's coffers.
"These include the rigidities in labour and services markets, and low levels of innovation, which continue to drive France's gradual but sustained loss of competitiveness and the gradual erosion of its export-oriented industrial base," Moody's said.
Mr Moscovici said the downgrade was motivation to pursue structural reforms.
He also blamed the downgrade on the economic management of previous governments and added that France was still committed to cutting its public deficit to 3% of output next year.
Data released last week showed that France had narrowly avoided falling into recession during the third quarter of 2012, registering 0.2% economic growth from the same period a year earlier.
Over the course of the 12 months, however, the French economy has more or less stagnated.






segunda-feira, 19 de novembro de 2012

Uma corporacao fascista e um partido totalitario...

O Brasil, infelizmente, atravessa um mau período de sua história. Assistimos, infelizmente e aparentemente impassíveis (não no que depender deste blog) a uma degradação sensível de suas mais altas instituições (que já deixaram de ser altas, justamente), a um rebaixamento generalizado dos padrões morais que se impõem no trato da coisa pública, a um processo de mediocrização crescente de todos os seus entes públicos (a começar pelo STF, passando pelo Legislativo, o mais prostituído, e contaminando todos os estabelecimentos de ensino, do primário ao pós-doc, mas atingindo de modo agudo as universidades públicas), enfim, a uma invasão das empresas estatais e de todos órgãos do Estado pelos novos bárbaros, com um aparelhamento avassalador de todas essas instâncias pelos companheiros da nomenklatura e da nova classe. O que temos, de verdade, é uma visível decadência nacional, que é sobretudo moral e institucional, além desse processo refletir exatamente o caráter dos chefes, chefetes e de outros medíocres que nos (des)governam.
Sinto muito esse desabafo, no dia da Bandeira, mas é o que posso constatar ao ler matérias como essa transcrita abaixo. Independentemente da qualidade ou não das "informações" desse jornalista, ou das aleivosias e eventuais mentiras que ele possa estar contando, o fato é que ele reflete questões reais, já sabidas por qualquer pessoa bem informada, como são geralmente os que frequentam este blog.
Sinto vergonha pelo país, e teria preferido não ter tomado conhecimento de coisas tão degradantes do ponto de vista da cidadania, e dos valores democráticos.
Sinto, também, que vamos demorar para superar essa fase deplorável da vida pública brasileira.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida 

Dilma teme surpresas com investigação de servidores da Receita sobre o patrimônio do filho de Lula
Por Jorge Serrão

Alerta Total, 19 de novembro de 2012

Exclusivo - Embora assuma o discurso globalitário do “combate à corrupção”, a Presidenta Dilma Rousseff anda hiperpreocupada com o risco de “rebeldia” entre servidores do alto escalão da Receita Federal. Dilma recebeu preocupantes informações de que alguns funcionários de carreira do órgão, à revelia do governo, promovem um acompanhamento pente fino da veloz evolução patrimonial do empresário Fábio Luis da Silva – filho do ex-presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – que a mídia chama popular e pejorativamente de “Lulinha” (apelido que Fábio nunca usa na vida pessoal).
Lula já teria pedido a Dilma para interceder no caso. Ela já avisou que nada pode fazer. O ex-presidente tentou, inclusive, contatos com a cúpula da Super Receita. Recebeu a mesma mensagem de que nada pode ser feito. Foi-lhe lembrado que o acompanhamento patrimonial dos contribuintes, dentro da lei e respeitando sigilos, é um dever funcional dos servidores concursados da Receita. Lula teme que vazem informações também eventuais sobre seu patrimônio pessoal. E como sabe muito bem que o "movimento de combate à corrupção" é uma ordem de fora para dentro do Brasil, se apavora com o risco de retaliações promovidas por inimigos ligados à oposição.
Além do medo de “surpresas desagradáveis” com servidores sérios e independentes da Super Receita, Dilma encara outra guerra institucional. A Presidenta e seus ministros são cada dia mais mal vistos pelo Fórum Nacional da Advocacia Pública Federal - integrado por sete entidades de procuradores da Fazenda, Previdência Social, do Banco Central e de procuradores lotados em autarquias e ministérios. A entidade enxerga uma intenção do governo em submeter às vontades de militantes petistas todos os setores jurídicos da área federal.
O primeiro alvo do aparelhamento petista é a Advocacia-Geral da União. Luís Inácio Adams, chefe do órgão, elaborou um projeto de lei complementar que prevê a nomeação, como advogados federais, de pessoas de fora da carreira e sem concurso. O projeto de Adams considera “infração funcional o parecer do advogado público que contrariar as ordens de seus superiores hierárquicos”. O Fórum Nacional da Advocacia Pública Federal define o plano como “um atentado ao Estado Democrático de Direito e põe em risco a existência da própria AGU".
Luis Inácio Adams é mais um do governo Dilma na corda bamba. Cotado para assumir a Casa Civil do Palácio do Planalto na próxima e urgente reforma ministerial que Dilma Rousseff promoverá no começo do ano, agora tem tudo para não emplacar no cargo. Também pode ver naufragar seu objetivo maior de ser indicado para o Supremo Tribunal Federal, tal qual seu antecessor José Dias Toffoli.
Alvos de processos pesados, como o do Mensalão e seus desdobramentos, os petistas definiram como prioridade o “aparelhamento” da máquina Judiciária. Além de indicar ministros aliados para o Supremo Tribunal Federal e para o Superior Tribunal de Justiça, o partido também quer ter um controle maior sobre a Advocacia Geral de União, para impedir que o órgão não crie problemas para os negócios feitos entre a União os empresários parceiros.


Leia também o site Fique Alerta – www.fiquealerta.net