O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

domingo, 5 de maio de 2024

Xi’s Historical Revisionism: Censorship and Amplification - Johanna Costigan (China Talk)

China Talk

Xi’s Historical Revisionism: Censorship and Amplification

You're gonna be popular, like Xi!

Johanna Costigan is a writer based in New York. She regularly contributes to Asia Society, Trivium China, and Forbes.

Xi Jinping has charged Chinese Communist Party officials with the task of simultaneously suppressing and popularizing history. Fatal chapters of China’s history in living memory like the Cultural Revolution and Tiananmen should be largely buried — even as lessons learned from those eras continue to help shape Party ideology. (The major takeaway from the Cultural Revolution: keep the people involved; from Tiananmen: make them patriotic.) Other historical stories, like the lead-up to the CCP’s first National Congress in Shanghai and, decades later, China’s valorous efforts to defend itself against Japan during World War II, should be spotlighted. Their protagonists — heroes and martyrs — should be admired. 

It’s up to rank-and-file cadres to bring these events into public consciousness through traditional means, such as education and tourism. But increasingly, they are also expected to use digital communication to transmit the Party-approved version of history to the people. The aim is not to stifle all discussions of history just because some less flattering, more factual episodes have to be sacrificed. Officials don’t want to make history a dirty word; on the contrary, they want to make it sexy. The goal: maximize Party history’s “attractiveness and infectiousness” 吸引力感染力.

Part of the impetus to popularize history is the fact that China’s economic growth can no longer match the rampant gains of previous decades. Even as China steps forcefully into its role as a global leader and innovation behemoth, the leadership can no longer rely on citizens’ financial gains to sustain loyalty, let alone genuine patriotism. History and identity are becoming imperative tools to instill pride and faith in the CCP’s century-long project to convince the people it deserves to lead them.

New regulations from the top suggest that Party leaders are increasingly willing to disrupt the previous status quo of defaulting to silence, including its more active form, censorship via deletion. Party history, they say, should not only be quietly edited to neutralize any threats to the leadership. It should also be clickable. People shouldn’t idly scroll past state-made social-media posts about history; they should swarm to them. That is a very tall order.

ChinaTalk is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

‘Public Secrecy’ and the Internet

Xi Jinping’s thinking on the power of the internet is clear. A recent People’s Daily article traces his guidance on buttressing and securing the internet and the information on it: “In today’s world, whoever masters the Internet will seize the initiative of the times” 当今世界,谁掌握了互联网,谁就把握住了时代主动权. According to the article, the Party must continue its efforts to master online discourse by publicizing its themes online “in a strong and colorful way” 浓墨重彩. And importantly, cadres — Party members — are obligated to fight “the ideological struggle on the Internet” 网络意识形态斗争.

Creating and sharing history-related writing and photos that break through the noise of the internet is particularly challenging in China. University of Oxford Professor Margaret Hillenbrand’s book, Negative Exposures: Knowing What Not to Know in Contemporary China, traces the Chinese public’s pursuit of self-preservation through engagement with “public secrecy” — the phenomenon of widespread and not always directly coerced self-silencing. It can come in the form of parents opting not to tell their children about traumatic historical events to keep them safe. Their memories of living through times such as Great Leap Forward 大跃进 or the Cultural Revolution — when acknowledging ongoing horrors would get someone in serious trouble — carry on, albeit diluted. China is still governed by the same party. What better than real ignorance to prevent the risk of awareness from carrying down to future generations?

The familial instinct to protect through suppression clashes with Xi’s history fixation. Netizens today need a hold on both what not to know and what toknow — despite receiving little formal education about the “sensitive” topics they should have “correct” understandings of. Sometimes total ignorance works best, but in other contexts, netizens, especially famous ones, might be better served by sharing the state’s version of the right idea. For most, this process is governed by trial and error. The negative version might occur through organic discussions on social media, when users encounter digital censorship of certain topics and opinions they might learn through the fact that they were censored are “incorrect.” The positive version is their exposure to media promotion of what is “correct.”

Regulating History

One useful subgenre for the CCP is its depiction of China’s “cultural heritage.” Composed of equal parts scrubbed history, human memory, and patriotic propaganda, cultural heritage is supposed to embody the episodes and artifacts from Chinese history that are most pertinent to its civilization — the material that carries identity, largely due to its longevity.

Online digital media has already become indispensable in promoting cultural heritage. But the Party says there is more work to be done. In a notice released in March, the National Cultural Heritage Administration 国家文物局 called for “the all-media dissemination of Chinese culture” 推进中华文化全媒体传播 and making “cultural relics and cultural heritage truly come alive” 让文物和文化遗产真正活起来. And just in case the stakes weren’t clear, the notice explicitly mentions them: “Cultural relics and cultural heritage carry the genes and blood of the Chinese nation” 文物和文化遗产承载着中华民族的基因和血脉.

The notice, which provides guidance to officials ahead of Cultural Heritage Day on June 8, also offers practical advice. It encourages the use of livestreams and other forms of publicity to “enhance the influence of the dissemination of Chinese culture” 增强中华文明传播力影响力. The goal is to attain “important public opinion support” for the new chapter of Chinese history, told in part through cultural relics 为谱写中国式现代化文物新篇章提供重要舆论支撑. The notice echoes the Government Work Report that came out of the Two Sessions meetings, which called for the “systematic protection and rational use” of cultural relics 加强文物系统性保护和合理利用.

Censorship alone does not cultivate “cultural heritage” or combat “historical nihilism.” The March notice seems to recognize that national pride runs on content, not its absence. And today, the most consumed content is digital — social-media campaigns and other multimedia displays could certainly help with this “all-media dissemination,” especially in a country with over a billion mobile phone users.

A month earlier, in February, the Central Committee released “Regulations on the Study and Education of Party History” 党史学习教育工作条例, elevating the importance of officials and the public grasping the “correct view” of Party history. They call for opposing and resisting historical nihilism, presumably through censorship and deletion. But they also call for making “official history the consensus of the whole party and the whole society” 让正史成为全党全社会的共识. That takes more than deletions; it requires creating and promoting digital content.

Indeed, the regulations encourage cadres to carry out commemorative events highlighting historical anniversaries and figures, especially martyrs (who are specifically protected under the Heroes and Martyrs Protection Law 英雄烈士保护法), and even to create online memorial halls. They also advise cadres to effectively use social-media platforms like Weibo and WeChat by making engaging content such as short videos.

Walking the New Tightrope

Sometimes, state narratives directly attempt to correct a strand of oppositional public opinion that, due to the CCPs’ censorship success, has passed its peak. For example, reproductions of and homages to Tank Man — the lone individual photographed during the 1989 Tiananmen Massacre who stood directly opposite a military tank — are scrubbed from the Chinese internet. But as Hillenbrand argues, that doesn’t mean the Party seeks a total erasure of Tank Man. That would be too blunt a force. Instead, now that enough time has passed that they can ensure success in its historical revisionism, authorities have tried to reclaim or “appropriate” the famous image — even if only subliminally.

Hillenbrand finds evidence of this impulse in the über-successful 2017 movie “Wolf Warrior 2” 战狼2, a film with a negligible plot but a clear message. China defeats America in a conflict, blowing up everything in sight along the way. At one point, a man stands directly opposite a tank; the resemblance is unmissable for anyone equipped to spot it. Hillenbrand describes “the patriotic snatching back of this most global icon of civic dissent” as evidence that the stubborn cropping up of Tank Man images has caught the Party’s attention and made officials nervous. It has also made them “determined to claim him as its own.” If Tank Man is going to continue to exist — to any extent — among Chinese people, authorities will respond by trying to secure him under their control, even if it means drawing more scrutiny to him than the occasional historically accurate post ever could.

Wolf Warrior 2’s “Tank Man”

“Public secrecy about Tank Man and Tiananmen,” she writes, “has effectively drawn the authorities into another zero-sum game in which the state itself is now disrupting the faux tranquility of a hushed past.” And the latest regulations on cultural heritage and history education suggest that Party officials appear willing to disrupt that tranquility, if there is a chance of payoff.

For example, beginning under Deng Xiaoping, the CCP leadership intentionally dulled the ultra-red tone, hysteria, and, to a degree, memory of the Mao era. Now, however, one of its most famous icons, the solider Lei Feng 雷锋, has reached digital prominence. Lei has been touted as a hero for decades, but today he can be spotted in propaganda on public screens in Beijing and Shanghai. Two years ago on Lei Feng Day (March 5), one postthat went viral encouraged readers to “carry forward the spirit of Lei Feng and write his story in the new era” 让我们一起弘扬雷锋精神,书写新时代雷锋故事.

Mass censorship is an impressive feat for which the CCP is famous, evidenced by its Great Firewall. But making benign versions of history go as close to viral as possible — without soliciting or encountering public commentary that steps over the Party’s red lines — will probably be even more difficult than the Party’s systematized efforts to keep the Chinese internet squeaky clean. It’s one thing to write regulations on teaching and policing Chinese history; it’s another to actually implement them.

Lei Feng makes a cameo on a train from Beijing to Shanghai, January 2024.

History’s utility outweighs its precarity to the Party. Beijing has cultivated an environment where you can cross over a red line by saying something or nothing. But at the same time, it’s not enough to stay silent on “sensitive” issues; ideal citizens also zealously share the safe subjects, adopting and posting state-approved analyses.

Even as the Party attempts to co-opt China’s cultural heritage, grassroots representations of the country’s history and culture persist. They have limited lifespans and constrained reach, but the Party has not succeeded in wiping them out entirely (doing so might arguably have never been the objective). Members of the public continue to push back against increasingly dictatorial depictions of China’s past. Pseudonymous author Fang Fang 方方 wrote what amounts to an unofficial history of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan. The filmmaker and activist Ai Xiaoming 艾晓明 has produced documentaries detailing corruption and political prisons and China. And everyday people still share their original interpretations of history on social media platforms like Douban 豆瓣. Their efforts have staying power, even if their posts do not.

In what Hillenbrand describes as “environments where secrecy is ambient and at large,” cultural manifestations created by the people “generate a communality — even when their audiences are small — that can be capacious enough to stage a reckoning with the things that society professes not to know.” Such a reckoning may or may not occur anytime soon. But China is certainly overdue for one.

ChinaTalk is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.


Law, Peace and Status: Brazil’s Call for Sovereign Equality During the Second Hague Peace Conference of 1907 - Lars Janssen

Research Article

Law, Peace and Status: Brazil’s Call for Sovereign Equality During the Second Hague Peace Conference of 1907

Lars Janssen

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07075332.2024.2345226 

Abstract

This article reevaluates Brazil’s role in the Second Hague Peace Conference of 1907, challenging prevailing narratives about Brazil’s call for sovereign equality. By combining theoretical insights on international status with an extensive examination of primary sources, such as diplomatic communications and conference proceedings, I show that Brazil’s call for sovereign equality was a strategic response to status struggles rather than an ideological commitment. The call enabled Brazil’s leading delegate, Rui Barbosa, to gain leadership over a Latin American multilateral coalition against a Great Power proposition to create a hierarchical international court. The leadership not only bolstered Brazil’s position as a regional power, but paradoxically, also strengthened the relations with its main opponent during the conference, the US. As such, this study both contributes to our understanding of Latin American historical diplomacy and underscores the nuanced dynamics of non-Great Powers in international politics.

Notes

1 Proceedings, Mtg., First Comission, James Brown Scott, The Proceedings of the Hague Peace Conference, vol. 2 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1921), 148; Gerry Simpson, Great Powers and Outlaw States: Unequal Sovereigns in the International Legal Order (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004), 132–47.

2 James Brown Scott, The Hague Peace Conferences of 1899 and 1907: A Series of Lectures Delivered before the Johns Hopkins University in the Year 1908, Volume 1 – Conferences (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1909), 169.

3 Martha Finnemore, The Purpose of Intervention: Changing Beliefs about the Use of Force (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2003), 24–6; Martha Finnemore and Michelle Jurkovich, ‘Getting a Seat at the Table: The Origins of Universal Participation and Modern Multilateral Conferences’, Global Governance, xx (2014), 361–73; Max Paul Friedman and Tom Long, ‘Soft Balancing in the Americas: Latin American Opposition to U.S. Intervention, 1898-1936’, International Security, xl (2015), 120–156; Simpson, Great Powers and Outlaw States, 132–47; Arnulf Becker Lorca, Mestizo International Law: A Global Intellectual History 1842-1933 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014), 143–199.

4 My translations: ‘visionário’, ‘pilares do multilateralismo contemporâneo’. Celso Amorim, ‘A Diplomacia Multilateral do Brasil: Um Tribute a Rui Barbosa’, (Lecture, Rio de Janeiro: Fundação Alexandre de Gusmão, 2007), 20; Fundação Casa de Rui Barbosa, ‘Águia de Haia’, http://www.casaruibarbosa.gov.br/interna.php?ID_S=298&ID_M=762; Isadora Loreto da Silveira, Laura de Castro Quaglia, Nathassia Arrúa de Oliveira Cardoso, Taiane de Bittencourt, ‘A Inauguração do Multilateralismo na Política Externa Brasileira: A Participação do Brasil na 2ª Conferência de Paz de Haia’, Fronteira, ix (2010), 29–46.

5 E. Bradford Burns, The Unwritten Alliance: Rio-Branco and Brazilian-American Relations (New York: Columbia University Press, 1966); Amado Luiz Cervo and Clodoaldo Bueno, História da Política Exterior do Brasil (Brasília: Editora UnB, 2002), 192–215; Luís Viana Filho, A Vida de Rui Barbosa (São Paulo: Companhia Editora Nacional, 1949), 331–53; Christiane Vieira Laidler, A Segunda Conferência da Paz de Haia, 1907: o Brasil e o Sistema Internacional no Início do Século XX (Rio de Janeiro: Edições Casa de Rui Barbosa, 2010); Rejane Magalhães. ‘Presença de Rui Barbosa em Haia’, Fundação Casa de Rui Barbosa (2007), 1–14; Antônio Celso Alves Pereira, ‘O Barão do Rio Branco e a II Conferência da Paz’ in Manoel Gomes Pereira (ed), Barão do Rio Branco: 100 Anos de Memória, (Brasília: Fundação Alexandre de Gusmão, 2012), 389–422; Joseph Smith, Unequal Giants: Diplomatic Relations between the United States and Brazil, 1889–1930 (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1991).

6 Carsten-Andreas Schulz, ‘Accidental Activists: Latin American Status-Seeking at The Hague’, International Studies Quarterly, lxi (2017), 612–22.

7 Ibid., 612, 619.

8 Edward Keene, ‘The Standard of “Civilisation”, the Expansion Thesis and the 19th-Century International Social Space’, Millennium, xlii (2014), 651–73; Jonathan Renshon, ‘Status Deficits and War’, International Organization lxx (2016), 513–50; William C. Wohlforth, Benjamin de Carvalho, Halvard Leira & Iver B. Neumann, ‘Moral Authority and Status in International Relations: Good States and the Social Dimension of Status Seeking’, Review of International Studies, xliv (2017), 526–46.

9 Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981), 31.

10 Carsten Holbraad, Middle Powers in International Politics (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1984), 75–91.

11 For an explanation of the shortcomings of the material approach, see Marina G. Duque, ‘Recognizing International Status: A Relational Approach’, International Studies Quarterly, lxii (2018), 578–80.

12 T. V. Paul, Deborah Welch Larson and William C. Wohlforth, Status in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014), 7–10. Also see: Duque, ‘Recognizing International Status’, 577–92; Keene, ‘The Standard of “Civilisation”’, 651–73; Renshon, ‘Status Deficits and War’, 513–50; Ann E. Towns, ‘Norms and Social Hierarchies: Understanding the International Policy Diffusion from Below’, International Organization lxvi (2012), 179–209.

13 Renshon, ‘Status Deficits and War’, 529; Duque, ‘Recognizing International Status’, 588; David, A. Lake, ‘Status, Authority, and the End of the American Century’ in T.V. Paul, Deborah Welch Larson and William C. Wohlforth (eds), Status in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014), 251.

14 Renshon, ‘Status Deficits and War’, 529; Keene, ‘The Standard of “Civilisation”’, 664.

15 Paul, Larson and Wohlforth, Status in World Politics, 18–19.

16 Renshon, ‘Status Deficits and War’, 526.

17 Wohlforth et al., ‘Moral Authority and Status’, 526–546.

18 Ibid, 530.

19 Adam Chapnick, ‘The Middle Power’, Canadian Foreign Policy Journal, vii (1999), 74–76; Bernard Jr. Prosper, ‘Canada and Human Security: From the Axworthy Doctrine to Middle Power Internationalism’, American Review of Canadian Studies, xxxvi (2006), 233–261; Wohlforth et al., ‘Moral Authority and Status in International Relations’, 526–546.

20 Andrew Hurrell, ‘Hegemony, Liberalism and Global Order, What Space for would be Great Powers?’, International Affairs, lxxxii (2006), 12–15; Eduard Jordaan, ‘The Concept of a Middle Power in International Relations: Distinguishing between Emerging and Traditional Middle Powers’, Politikon, xxx (2003), 165–81; Wohlfort et al. ‘Moral Authority and Status’, 534–5.

21 Hurrell, ‘Hegemony, Liberalism and Global Order’, 11.

22 Charalampos Efstathopoulos, ‘Leadership in the WTO: Brazil, India and the Doha Development Agenda’, Cambridge Review of International Affairs, xxv (2012), 269–93; Stefan Schirm, ‘Leaders in Need of Followers: Emerging Powers in Global Governance’, European Journal of International Relations, xvi (2010), 197–221.

23 Sandra Destradi, ‘Regional Powers and their Strategies: Empire, Hegemony, and Leadership’, Review of International Studies, xxxvi (2010), 903–30; Hurrell, ‘Would be Great Powers?’, 8-9; Detlef Nolte, ‘How to Compare Regional Powers: Analytical Concepts and Research Topics,’ Review of International Studies, xxxvi (2010), 881–901.

24 Efstathopoulos, ‘Leadership in the WTO’, 269-293; Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, ‘Global Power Shifts and South Africa’s Southern Agenda: Caught between African Solidarity and Regional Leadership’ in Günther Taube (ed), Power Shifts and Global Governance: Challenges from South and North (London: Anthem Press, 2011), 141–52.

25 Jeremy Adelman, ‘An Age of Imperial Revolutions ‘,The American Historical Review, cxiii (2008), 337; Schulz, ‘Civilisation, Barbarism and the Making of Latin America’s Place in 19th-Century International Society’, Millennium: Journal of International Studies, xlii, iii (2014), 849–51.

26 Liliana Obregón. 2006. ‘Between Civilisation and Barbarism: Creole Interventions in International Law’, Third World Quarterly, xxvii, v (2006), 822–3.

27 Lilia Moritz Schwarcz, ‘A Mestizo and Tropical Country: The Creation of the Official Image of Independent Brazil’, European Review of Latin American and Caribbean Studies, lxxx (2006), 28.

28 Leslie Bethell, ‘O Brasil no Mundo’, in Alfredo Gomes, Leslie Bethel, Lilia Moritz Schwarcs, Luiz Aranha Côrrea do Lago, Gustavo Franco and José Murilo de Carvalho (eds), História do Brasil nação: 1808-2010 (Rio de Janeiro: Academia Brasileira de Letras, 2012), 153–57.

29 Mary Wilhelmine Williams, Dom Pedro the Magnanimous: Second Emperor of Brazil (Abingdon: Frank Cas & Co. Ltd., 1996), 141–56.

30 Fundação Alexandre de Gusmão. n.d., ‘Embaixadas do Brasil Histórico dos chefes de legações e embaixadas’, www.funag.gov.br/postos/.

31 Reşat Bayer, 2006. ‘Diplomatic Exchange Data set, v2006.1’, http://correlatesofwar.org.

32 Schulz, ‘Latin America’s Place in 19th-Century International Society’, 850–1.

33 Bethell, ‘O Brasil no Mundo’, 131–49.

34 Boris Fausto and Sergio Fausto, A Concise History of Brazil (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014), 144–56.

35 Pereira, ‘II Conferência da Paz’, 391.

36 Amado Luiz Cervo and Clodoaldo Bueno, História da Política Exterior do Brasil (Brasília: Editora UnB, 2002), 167–72.

37 Carlos Henrique Cardim, ‘A Primeira Conferência de Paz da Haia, 1899: Por que a Rússia?’, in Manoel Gomes Pereira (ed), Barão do Rio Branco: 100 Anos de Memória (Brasília: Fundação Alexandre de Gusmão, 2012): 368–75.

38 Bayer, ‘Diplomatic Exchange Data set’.

39 Luiz Felipe de Seixas Corrêa, ‘O Barão do Rio Branco chefe de missão: Liverpool, Washington, Berna e Berlim’, in Manoel Gomes Pereira (ed), O Barão do Rio Branco: 100 Anos de Memória (Brasília: Fundação Alexandre de Gusmão, 2012), 31–56.

40 Alvaro Lins, Rio Branco: Biografia Pessoal e História Política (São Paulo: Companhia Editora Nacional, 1965), 259–60.

41 ‘Não venho servir a um partido político: venho servir ao nosso Brasil, que todos desejamos ver unido, íntegro, forte e respeitado’. Rio Branco, ‘No Clube Naval, 1 Dec. 1902, Manoel Gomes Pereira (ed), Obras do Rio Branco IX, Discursos(Brasília: Fundação Alexandre de Gusmão, 2012), 108.

42 Tânia Maria Pechir Gomes Manzur, ‘Opinião Pública e Política Externa do Brasil do Império a João Goulart: Um Balanço Historiográfico’, Revista Brasileira Política Internacional, xlii (1999), 42–43.

43 Ibid.

44 Laidler, A Segunda Conferência da Paz de Haia, 105; Smith, The United States and Latin America, 67.

45 Smith, The United States and Latin America, 67.

46 Juan Pablo Scarfi, ‘In the Name of the Americas: The Pan-American Redefinition of the Monroe Doctrine and the Emerging Language of American International Law in the Western Hemisphere, 1898-1933’, Diplomatic History, xv, ii (2016), 189–218; Friedman and Long, ‘Soft Balancing in the Americas’.

47 Smith, The United States and Latin America, 69.

48 Finnemore, The Purpose of Intervention, 24-51; Finnemore and Jurkovich, ‘Getting a Seat at the Table’; Friedman and Long, ‘Soft Balancing in the Americas’.

49 Roberto Schwarz, ‘Misplaced Ideas: Literature and Society in Late Nineteenth-Century Brazil’, Comparative Civilizations Review, v (1980), 1–19.

50 Burns, The Unwritten Alliance.

51 Cervo and Bueno, História da Política Exterior do Brasil, 192; Clodoaldo Bueno, ‘O Barão do Rio Branco no Itamaraty (1902-1912)’, Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, lv (2012), 173.

52 Burns, The Unwritten Alliance.

53 Ibid, 90–3.

54 Ibid, 103–8.

55 Clodoaldo Bueno, ‘O Barão do Rio Branco no Itamaraty (1902-1912)’, Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, lv (2012), 177; Smith, Unequal Giants, 53–4.

56 Laidler, A Segunda Conferência da Paz de Haia, 114–115; Pereira, ‘II Conferência da Paz’, 392–393.

57 Speech from Rio Branco to the conference, July 23, 1906, in International American Conference (3rd: 1906: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), Minutes, Resolutions, Documents, (Rio de Janeiro: Imprensa Nacional, 1907), 39–40.

58 Armando de Senna Bittencourt, ‘O Emprego do Poder Militar como Estratégia de Rio Branco’, in Manoel Gomes Pereira (ed), O Barão do Rio Branco: 100 Anos de Memória (Brasília: Fundação Alexandre de Gusmão, 2012), 62, 73.

59 Burns, The Unwritten Alliance, 94; Laidler, A Segunda Conferência da Paz de Haia, 128.

60 João Paulo Alsina Jr., ‘Rio Branco, Grand Strategy and Naval Power’, Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, lvii (2014) 9–28; Bueno, ‘Rio Branco no Itamaraty’, 180-1; Burns, The Unwritten Alliance, 182; Doratioto, ‘A Política Platina do Barão do Rio Branco’, 132, 140.

61 Rio Branco, speech, 27 Aug. 1906, p. 405, International American Conference, Minutes, Resolutions, Documents (Rio de Janeiro: Imprensa Nacional, 1907); Doratioto, ‘A Política Platina do Barão do Rio Branco’, 130–49.

62 Cervo and Bueno, História da Política Exterior do Brasil, 210.

63 Doratioto, ‘A Polítical Platina do Barão de Rio Branco’, 134.

64 Maartje Abbenhuis, Christopher Ernest Barber and Annalise R. Higgins, War, Peace and International Order? The Legacies of the Hague Conferences of 1899 and 1907 (Abingdon: Routledge, 2017); Maartje Abbenhuis, The Hague Conferences and International Politics, 1898-1915 (London: Bloomsburg Academic, 2019).Finnemore and Jurkovich, ‘Getting a Seat at the Table’.

65 Nicholas II, ‘Rescript of the Russian Emperor (1898)’, in A Series of Lectures, vol 2, J. B. Scott (ed). (Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Press, 1909), 1.

66 Scott, A Series of Lectures, vol.1, 95–100.

67 Finnemore and Jurkovich, ‘Getting a Seat at the Table’, 367.

68 Pereira, ‘II Conferência da Paz’, 402.

69 Filho, A Vida De Rui Barbosa.

70 Pereira, ‘II Conferência da Paz’, 402–3.

71 ‘desejo ardente de servir ao pais.’ Rui Barbosa to Rio Branco, 30 March 1906, [Rio de Janeiro, Arquivo de Rui Barbosa], [Série Segunda] C[onferência da Paz em] H[aia] 2/1, fo. 1.

72 Scott, Proceedings, vol. 1, 2–15.

73 ‘Quizera saber o que ha de exacto sobre assumpto.’ Rio Branco to Joaquim Nabuco, 14 Apr. 1907, CH 2/1, fo. 14G.

74 Joaquim Nabuco to Rio Branco, 17 Apr. 1907, CH 2/1 fo. 14G.

75 Memo Nabuco to US secretary of state Elihu Root, 25 May 1907, CH 6/1, fo. 1.

76 Smith, Unequal Giants, 59.

77 Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 30 May 1907, CH 2/2, fo. 26.

78 Conference list, 27 Sept. 1907, CH 18; Filho, A Vida de Rui Barbosa, 334.

79 ‘Estamos todos seguros do brilhante exito da sua missão.’ Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 27 May 1907, CH 2/2, fo. 25.

80 ‘Article discussing the map of the Hall of Knights’, Courier de la Conférence de la Paix, 18 June 1907, 2.

81 ‘Trabalho acumula-se cresce enormemente não havendo quasi tempo estudar’. Rui Barbosa to Rio Branco, 29 June 1907, p. 4, CH 9, fo. 1.

82 Ibid, p. 5.

83 Proceedings, Mtg., Fo[urth] C[commission], 5 July 1907, p. 770-7, Scott, Proceedings, vol. 3.

84 Ibid, 771–2.

85 Proceedings, Mtg., FoC, 12 July, p. 808, Scott, Proceedings, vol. 3.

86 Ibid.

87 Filho, A Vida de Rui Barbosa, 338–9.

88 ‘Consideram irritante impolitico.’ Rui Barbosa to Rio Branco, 14 July 1907, p. 10, CH 9, fo. 1.

89 ‘Elles a abandonaram appressando-se plena sessão solicitar proposta belga dando assim nossa como for a combate.’ Rui Barbosa to Rio Branco, 15 July 1907, p. 10, CH 9, fo. 1.

90 Rui Barbosa to Rio Branco, 3 Aug. 1907, p. 22, CH 9, fo. 1.

91 Rui Barbosa to Rio Branco, 25 July 1907, p. 16, CH 9, fo. 1.

92 Burns, The Unwritten Alliance, 118-20; Smith, Unequal Giants, 61.

93 ‘effeito partido seria deploravel … depois tantos brilhantes trabalhos.’ Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 26 July 1907, CH 2/2 fo. 62.

94 ‘aqui quasi todas contra nós.’ Rui Barbosa to Rio Branco, 21 July 1907, CH 9, fo. 1.

95 Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 29 July 1907, CH 22, fo. 65.

96 Roque Sáenz Peña, La Republica Argentina en la Segunda Conferencia International de la Paz (Buenos Aires: Imprenta y Litografia A. Pech. Cerrito 55, 1908), 34–7.

97 Proceedings, Mtg., FC: First Subcommission, 1 Aug. 1907, p. 312–31, Scott, Proceedings, vol. 2.

98 Rui Barbosa to Rio Branco, 3 Aug. 1907, p. 22, CH 9 fo. 1.

99 ‘amargo humiliação.’ Ibid.

100 Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 5 Aug. 1907, CH 2/3 fo. 71.

101 Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 8 Aug. 1907, CH 2/3 fo. 77; Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 10 Aug. 1907, CH 2/3 fo. 78; Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 16 Aug. 1907, CH 2/3 fo. 90.

102 ‘terem Brazil Argentina Chile cada um seu arbitro’, Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 12 Aug. 1907, CH 2/3 fo. 81.

103 Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 15 Aug. 1907, CH 2/3 fo. 87.

104 Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 16 Aug. 1907, CH 2/3 fo. 74.

105 Proceedings, Mtg., FC: Committee B, 17 Aug. 1907, p. 609-13, Scott, Proceedings, vol. 2.

106 Ibid, 610.

107 Ibid.

108 Proceedings, FC: Second Subcommission, 4 July 1907, p. 783-786, Scott, Proceedings, vol. 2.

109 Rui Barbosa to Rio Branco, 11 Aug. 1907, p. 30, CH 9 fo. 1.

110 Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 14 Aug. 1907, CH 2/3 fo. 86.

111 Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 16 Aug. 1907, CH 2/3 fo. 90.

112 Proceedings, FC, 10 Sept. 1907, p. 11-13, Scott, Proceedings, vol. 2.

113 ‘Não sei como obter supplente quando americanos recusam … Tenho dito vocencia bastante para habilital-o jugar realidade nossa posição aqui quasi isolados entre estados e americanos e impotentes contra predominio absoluto … potencias’ Rui Barbosa to Rio Branco, 16 Aug. 1907, p. 35, CH 9 fo. 1.

114 Ibid.

115 ‘Nenhum representante por mais habil e competente que seja mesmo representante um paiz forte pode estar certo de conseguir tudo quanto deseja ou seu paiz deseja.’ Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 17 Aug. 1907, CH 2/6 fo. 235.

116 ‘enthusiasmo pelo brilho vocencia.’ Ibid.

117 Pereira, ‘O Barão do Rio Branco e a II Conferência da Paz’, 411.

118 Rui Barbosa to Rio Branco, 17 Aug. 1907, p. 37, CH 9 fo. 1.

119 Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 24 Aug. 1907, CH 2/3 fo. 106.

120 Proceedings, FC: First Subcommission, 20 Aug. 1907, p. 619-22, Scott, Proceedings, vol. 2.

121 Ibid., 623–30.

122 ‘Nossa autoridade moral cresce todos dias.’ Rui Barbosa to Rio Branco, 23 Aug. 1907, p. 44, CH 9 fo. 1.

123 Rui Barbosa to Rio Branco, 23 Aug. 1907, p. 47, CH 9 fo. 1; Rui Barbosa to Rio Branco, 26 Aug. 1907, p. 49-50, CH 9 fo. 1; Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 23 Aug. 1907, CH 2/3 fo. 102; Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 26 Aug. 1907, CH 2/3 fo. 111; Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 27 Aug. 1907, CH 2/3 fo. 115.

124 Rui Barbosa to Rio Branco, 23 Aug. 1907, p. 45, CH 9 fo. 1.

125 Ibid.

126 Rui Barbosa to Rio Branco, 4 Sept. 1907, p. 61-2, CH 9 fo. 1.

127 Proceedings, FC: Committee of Examination, 17 Aug. 1907, p. 827, Scott, Proceedings, vol. 2.

128 Ibid.

129 ‘Esteva levantou-se dizendo adheria completamente nossa attitude.’ Rui Barbosa to Rio Branco, 18 Aug. 1907, CH 9 fo. 1.

130 ‘Abandonalos alem de deslealdade seria transferir-lhes vantagem posição que hoje occupamos.’ Rui Barbosa to Rio Branco, 31 Aug. 1907, p. 56, CH 9 fo. 1.

131 Schulz, ‘Accidental Activists’, 613.

132 Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 19 Sept. 1907, CH 2/4 fo. 150.

133 William Hull, The Two Hague Conferences and their Contributions to International Law (New York: Kraus, 1908), 423–5; Scott, A Series of Lectures, vol.1, 169.

134 Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 31 Aug. 1907, CH 2/4 fo. 122; Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 31 Aug. 1907, CH 2/4 fo. 123.

135 ‘Grande pezar que nos causa a dissidencia em que infelizmente nos achamos.’ Rio Branco to Rui Barbosa, 31 Aug. 1907, CH 2/4 fo. 123.

136 ‘Article Discussing the Brazilian Banquet’, Courier de la Conférence de la Paix, 25 Aug. 1907, 3; Filho, A Vida de Rui Barbosa, 340.

137 ‘Les Sept Sages de la Conférence’, Courier de la Conférence de la Paix, 7 Sept. 1907, 1.

138 Schulz, ‘Accidental Activists’, 619–20.

139 Ibid., Simpson, Great Powers and Outlaw States, 162.

140 Burns, The Unwritten Alliance; Smith, Unequal Giants.

141 Proceedings, Mtg., FC: Committee B, 17 Aug. 1907, p. 613, Scott, Proceedings, vol. 2.

142 Proceedings, FC: Second Subcommission, 4 July 1907, p. 1086, Scott, Proceedings, vol. 2.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Lars Janssen

At the moment of publication, Lars Janssen is a PhD-candidate at Utrecht University. His research focuses on diplomatic history, and specifically the roles of, and the interactions with, Latin American actors in the development of the international order.


AL CAPONE, um nome apropriado para examinar crime e corrupção na América Latina - Universidade Harvard

America Latina Crime and Policy Network 

(AL CAPONE).

Nada poderia ser mais apropriado para caracterizar a América Latina.


The David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies (DRCLAS) at Harvard University and the America Latina Crime and Policy Network (AL CAPONE) –a network of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) —are pleased to announce the 13th Annual Meeting of AL CAPONE, to be held at Harvard University on May 10 and 11, 2024.

Topics for this year's conference include mafia, youth crime prevention, economic shocks and crimes, drugs, police behaviour and criminal justice in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Keynote speaker: Crystal Yang, Bennett Boskey Professor of Law at Harvard Law School and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, where she is co-director of the Crime Working Group

This event is free and open to the public, no registration needed. 

Programa: Program

Learn More: Learn More


Book review: Ruth Elizabeth Gordon: Development Disrupted: The Global South in the Twenty-First Century, by Fathimath Musthaq (H-Diplo)

Impossível fazer uma análise coerente, adequada, significativa, de duas coisas inexistentes: um Global South, que é um conceito fantasioso, não uma realidade, e UMA economia desse Sul Global, coisa absolutamente sem sentido. Uma terceira coisa totalmente sem sentido é pretender falar de um "processo de desenvolvimento" – o que é isso, para uma multitude de 150 países? – em "ruptura", ou interrompido NO SÉCULO XXI, que está apenas começando.

Loucuras acadêmicas acontecem. Essa pode ser uma delas.

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

H-Diplo: New posted content


A certidão de nascimento de Brasília está em Portugal - José Roberto Bassul (Correio Braziliense)

 Consequência da falta de um projeto museológico no Brasil, muitos arquivos particulares estão sendo expatriados, e é para salvá-los, não para extraditá-los. 

Certos patrimônios teriam sido inegavelmente perdidos, ou deteriorados, se por acaso tivessem permanecido no Brasil. É triste reconhecer isso, mas é verdade.

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

 

Correio Braziliense, 5/05/2024

CIDADE NOSSA

A certidão de nascimento de Brasília está em Portugal

Brasília, de fato, é especial. E isso, em qualquer âmbito, seja nas artes visuais ou na sua capacidade de encantar, reconhecer isso é uma forma de preservar o passado e respeitar o futuro

INÍCIOREVISTA DO CORREIO



REV-0505-CRONICA - (crédito: Editoria de Arte sobre imagem de Lucio Costa)


Especial para o Correio — José Roberto Bassul


O título deste artigo não é uma metáfora, é uma notícia. Boa e triste. Em 2021, todo o acervo de Lúcio Costa foi doado pela família do urbanista à Casa da Arquitectura, uma associação cultural apoiada pelo Estado português. À época, certa ou errada, a neta do inventor de Brasília alegou em entrevista a este jornal que, no Brasil, "falta uma consciência de preservação cultural. Ainda vamos chegar lá, mas, por enquanto, não temos condições". Entre os mais de 11 mil documentos doados está o desenho original do Plano Piloto.

A notícia não deixa de ser boa. Lá estive, em 2023, para a inauguração de Siza e Oscar, para além do mar, uma exposição de fotografias minhas. Pude, então, conhecer a instituição e perceber o cuidado e os meios de que dispõe para a conservação, em ótimas condições, dessa preciosidade.

Mas a notícia é também triste. Ela nos coloca diante de nós mesmos, das nossas fragilidades, da nossa incapacidade de reconhecer, preservar e partilhar a multifacetada, polêmica, trágica, épica e rica história cultural que vimos construindo. Como deixamos escapar de Brasília aquilo que nos constituiu como espaço? E quantos outros legados, individuais ou coletivos, estamos deixando que se apaguem a cada dia?

A cidade que não respeita seu passado não tem futuro. Lúcio Costa sabia disso. Já no preâmbulo de seu Relatório do Plano Piloto vaticinava que Brasília deveria tornar-se, "além de centro de governo e administração, num foco de cultura dos mais lúcidos e sensíveis do país". Os brasilienses, de nascimento e adoção, têm realizado esse vaticínio. Em meio a imensas dificuldades e barreiras, artistas, produtores, galeristas, curadores e gestores vêm construindo um impressionante patrimônio simbólico neste inquieto e criativo quadradinho.

Seja nas artes visuais, na arquitetura, na literatura, no cinema, no teatro ou na música, não faltam exemplos dessa afirmação. O projeto Plano das Artes, conduzido pela professora da UnB Cinara Barbosa, já mapeou mais de uma centena de espaços autônomos de artes visuais no Distrito Federal. Escritórios de arquitetura multipremiados, a prosa e a poesia de inúmeros talentos, o cinema de Vladimir Carvalho, o teatro de Hugo Rodas, o choro de Hamilton de Holanda, o rock de Renato Russo e Cássia Eller, as obras de Antonio Obá ou o som eletrônico de Alok, ao lado de muitos outros nomes de mulheres e homens, estão aí para não deixar ninguém mentir.

Por que então deixamos fechado o Teatro Nacional de Brasília e perdemos acervos cobiçados como o de Lúcio Costa? Não haverá uma resposta só. É evidente, contudo, que, de um lado, as políticas públicas de cultura têm sido incapazes de disputar, com a força devida, a difícil partilha orçamentária. De outro, salta aos olhos a omissão de nossa elite econômica. Os que aqui formaram grandes patrimônios poderiam, e deveriam, investir mais — e mais democraticamente — na preservação da memória e na expansão criativa das manifestações culturais em todo o Distrito Federal.

Não percamos de vista o que nos é peculiar. Há cidades que são obras da natureza, como o Rio de Janeiro. Outras são obras humanas, como São Paulo. Mas raras são obras de arte, como Brasília.

*José Roberto Bassul é arquiteto e fotógrafo

 


Seminário: Europa Integração e Fragmentação, livro; no Centro de Estudos Globais da UnB, 10/05/2024


 🗓 10/05/2024, 10h às 12h

🔗 Microsoft Teams

✍ Inscrições: https://bit.ly/4b37PgM .

📜 Certificado de participação disponível

A hipocrisia religiosa-criminosa de Putin precisa ser denunciada - Yasmina Lombaert (via X)

 From: Yasmina @yasminalombaert 

So f*cking hypocrite

The Russian demon at the Easter service at the Cathedral of Christ the Savior, led by KGB agent Kirill and accompanied by another mafia gangster, Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin. 

The Russian dictator breathes orthodoxy reminiscent of the time when tsars were declared God-appointed rulers of Russia.

The Russian Orthodox Church is complicit in aiding and abetting the territorial ambitions of one man, all for the greater glory of self-interest and the accumulation of territory, wealth and power.

And yet, the church, indeed all of Christianity, is based on the teachings of Christ, heralded as the “Prince of Peace.” It was Christ whom people asked what the greatest commandments were. His answer was simple to “love God unconditionally” and to “love your neighbour as yourself.”

Waging a war aimed at unilateral conquest was never part of Christ's message. Killing people, kidnapping children, bombing schools, destroying civilian power grids, and destroying hospital complexes full of patients are not really actions that lend themselves to the way of Christ.


An insult to real Christians.

sábado, 4 de maio de 2024

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine; Russian losses from war - Canadian Kolbzar (X)

 Canadian Kobzar

Russians killed, wounded in Ukraine

k soldiers (KIA or WIA), 2k tanks and vehicles, 300 aircraft, and 11 ships.  This is literally the entire invasion force (and more) sent into Ukraine back in 2022. GONE.  Which in itself is insane. 

While Ukraine certainly has its losses, it is not nearly as comparable to russia's.  But even it if it was, what is really critical here - and the reason why russia is unequivocally losing, notwithstanding any uninhabited farmers fields it temporarily occupies - russia's reserves are not unlimited and it cannot replace its losses at the same rate it is losing. These losses are not only problematic in quantity, but in quality. 

russia has about 12,000 tanks in reserve.  Which means they have about 10,000 to go, but these tanks are ancient.  This is why you are seeing cold war era (1950's-1970's) being rolled out. They have dated optics, require more men, are not as effective, and do not stand up to modern equipment. russia does not have the resources to rebuild or replace these tanks.  But even worse, Ukraine has demonstrated with FPVs, russian tanks are largely redundant.  Dont even get me started on the russian navy or airforce which is in even worse condition. 

While russia is making head way on the FPV drones, they are still behind Ukraine in terms of tactics, manufacturing and defence of drones (for now). 

But lets look at manpower.  Everyone keeps talking about new mobilizations in russia, but the reality is that this is not a bottomless pit, and more critically you have a problem with inflow.  

Pre-war russia had about 8 million men in their 20's to draft.  Now, 600k are dead, and another 1 million have fled russia.  That leaves you with 6 million (in only two years!) 

Its also not a problem of just quantity, but quality.  A few weeks ago, the 76th Pskov paratroopers were decimated by Ukrainian attacks.  These are considered the elite of the russian army.  They were equipped with the best equipment russia has.  Losses like this cannot be replaced with fresh conscripts.  This takes decades to get to this level of quality. 

But here is the thing that people often overlook - russian mobilization isn't to capitalize on massive gains, its quite literally just to sustain the frontline. Despite Ukraine quite literally running out of ammunition, russia has not made any material gains on the front line.  russia has become entirely dependent on through put  just to fight the war. If they don't deploy on the front, thats game over russia loses.  Ironically, the more they push forward, the more they lose. 

The fact that russia is deploying Indian, Nepali, Syrian, African and Asian troops is telling of how dire the situation really is. 

If death rate remained the same as in 2022, russia would be able to keep up this war for another 5-6 years.  HOWEVER, even during the period where Ukraine was not supplied with US aid, russian casualties have steadily INCREASED.  With new aid, longer ranged weapons and F-16s... well we can start seeing a dimmer picture for russia. 

Again, to reiterate this is why russia was so dead set on killing the foreign aid bill and why much if its strategy has been on trying to stop aid.

Now remember, this is the total mobilization force.  So in 5-6 years time this isn't just about mobilization against Ukraine, this is mobilization capabilities for ANY WAR GOING FORWARD.  russia quite literally is demilitarizing itself. 

This is why I do not think you will see counter-offensives like last summer from Ukraine again.  russia is happy to continue throwing meat waves to Ukraine.  The further russia expands, the more vulnerable its supply lines become - as General Barrow once said "amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics." 

In my opinion, the best way to win this war is through defensive tactics.  Let russia continue to throw meat waves at Ukraine and sustain massive casualties.  They are only destroying themselves. Not only in this war, but for the long term.  We need to clip the eagle's wings once and for all.  This is a prime example of pyrrhic victory in real time.  

At this rate, we could easily see 1 mil russians KIA by 2025. Ukraine does not need to retake cities at this point, because eventually russia will run out of men, functioning, equiment and morale. At the rate russia is losing men and equipment,  not only will it not be able to occupy eastern Ukraine or Crimea, but it wont be able to conduct any type of military engagement (offensive or defensive) in the near future. 

Now I am not saying this will be a cake walk, this obviously will come at a great cost to Ukrainians - however, we are getting better equipped, better trained, and better adapted.  With Patriot defences rearmed, you will see less dead Ukrainians.  However, there is no victory in sight for russia not withstanding the sabre rattling of online uneducated russian trolls. 


Believe in Ukraine.  Support Ukraine.  Stand with Ukraine.