Canadian Kobzar
Russians killed, wounded in Ukraine
k soldiers (KIA or WIA), 2k tanks and vehicles, 300 aircraft, and 11 ships. This is literally the entire invasion force (and more) sent into Ukraine back in 2022. GONE. Which in itself is insane.
While Ukraine certainly has its losses, it is not nearly as comparable to russia's. But even it if it was, what is really critical here - and the reason why russia is unequivocally losing, notwithstanding any uninhabited farmers fields it temporarily occupies - russia's reserves are not unlimited and it cannot replace its losses at the same rate it is losing. These losses are not only problematic in quantity, but in quality.
russia has about 12,000 tanks in reserve. Which means they have about 10,000 to go, but these tanks are ancient. This is why you are seeing cold war era (1950's-1970's) being rolled out. They have dated optics, require more men, are not as effective, and do not stand up to modern equipment. russia does not have the resources to rebuild or replace these tanks. But even worse, Ukraine has demonstrated with FPVs, russian tanks are largely redundant. Dont even get me started on the russian navy or airforce which is in even worse condition.
While russia is making head way on the FPV drones, they are still behind Ukraine in terms of tactics, manufacturing and defence of drones (for now).
But lets look at manpower. Everyone keeps talking about new mobilizations in russia, but the reality is that this is not a bottomless pit, and more critically you have a problem with inflow.
Pre-war russia had about 8 million men in their 20's to draft. Now, 600k are dead, and another 1 million have fled russia. That leaves you with 6 million (in only two years!)
Its also not a problem of just quantity, but quality. A few weeks ago, the 76th Pskov paratroopers were decimated by Ukrainian attacks. These are considered the elite of the russian army. They were equipped with the best equipment russia has. Losses like this cannot be replaced with fresh conscripts. This takes decades to get to this level of quality.
But here is the thing that people often overlook - russian mobilization isn't to capitalize on massive gains, its quite literally just to sustain the frontline. Despite Ukraine quite literally running out of ammunition, russia has not made any material gains on the front line. russia has become entirely dependent on through put just to fight the war. If they don't deploy on the front, thats game over russia loses. Ironically, the more they push forward, the more they lose.
The fact that russia is deploying Indian, Nepali, Syrian, African and Asian troops is telling of how dire the situation really is.
If death rate remained the same as in 2022, russia would be able to keep up this war for another 5-6 years. HOWEVER, even during the period where Ukraine was not supplied with US aid, russian casualties have steadily INCREASED. With new aid, longer ranged weapons and F-16s... well we can start seeing a dimmer picture for russia.
Again, to reiterate this is why russia was so dead set on killing the foreign aid bill and why much if its strategy has been on trying to stop aid.
Now remember, this is the total mobilization force. So in 5-6 years time this isn't just about mobilization against Ukraine, this is mobilization capabilities for ANY WAR GOING FORWARD. russia quite literally is demilitarizing itself.
This is why I do not think you will see counter-offensives like last summer from Ukraine again. russia is happy to continue throwing meat waves to Ukraine. The further russia expands, the more vulnerable its supply lines become - as General Barrow once said "amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics."
In my opinion, the best way to win this war is through defensive tactics. Let russia continue to throw meat waves at Ukraine and sustain massive casualties. They are only destroying themselves. Not only in this war, but for the long term. We need to clip the eagle's wings once and for all. This is a prime example of pyrrhic victory in real time.
At this rate, we could easily see 1 mil russians KIA by 2025. Ukraine does not need to retake cities at this point, because eventually russia will run out of men, functioning, equiment and morale. At the rate russia is losing men and equipment, not only will it not be able to occupy eastern Ukraine or Crimea, but it wont be able to conduct any type of military engagement (offensive or defensive) in the near future.
Now I am not saying this will be a cake walk, this obviously will come at a great cost to Ukrainians - however, we are getting better equipped, better trained, and better adapted. With Patriot defences rearmed, you will see less dead Ukrainians. However, there is no victory in sight for russia not withstanding the sabre rattling of online uneducated russian trolls.
Believe in Ukraine. Support Ukraine. Stand with Ukraine.
