Foreign Policy of Donald Trump: comments of a connoisseur: David Kramer - By Meryl Kornfield and Patrick Svitek (The Washington Post)

 

Foreign Policy of Donald Trump: comments of a connoisseur, David Kramer By Meryl Kornfield and Patrick Svitek The Washington Post Early Brief, Jan 17, 2025 Six questions for … David Kramer, executive director of the George W. Bush Institute. You may not think of “Bush” when you think of President-elect Donald Trump — especially when it comes to foreign policy — but Kramer sees some common ground with the incoming administration. He’s encouraged in particular by some of Trump’s planned nominees, such as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Florida) for secretary of state. We spoke with Kramer twice, including after Wednesday’s announcement of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. There has since been a partisan debate over who deserves credit for the breakthrough, but Kramer told us the deal was more broadly a reminder of the vital role the United States can play on the world stage. It’s a role that Trump has put up for debate as he prepares to take office Monday, vowing to put “America first” in foreign policy. The Bush Institute has released a range of policy recommendations for the next administration and the new Congress, in an effort to “stake out what is the right way” on the most pressing issues, as Kramer put it. Here’s what he had to say about other foreign policy issues awaiting Trump. This interview has been edited and condensed for length and clarity. Your policy recommendations for the Russia-Ukraine war, which include NATO membership for Ukraine, are more friendly to Ukraine than at least Trump’s campaign rhetoric would suggest he supports. What gives you hope he’ll see things differently in office? I think one of the realities that will hit the new administration is [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s lack of interest in a negotiated settlement. You just had … the former minister of Russia reiterating opposition to the initial positions that they think the Trump team will be staking out. And basically what Putin wants is Ukraine’s surrender. He wants a change in government, he wants Ukraine to remain permanently neutral and he wants recognition of Russian territories, including land that Russia doesn’t even currently occupy. And so I think this reality … will hit the new administration and might well lead them to recognizing the importance of continuing to support Ukraine militarily as well as politically. I think [Ukrainian] President [Volodymyr] Zelensky has been rather skillful in his approach indicating a readiness to negotiate, but based on a just outcome … an outcome that does not consign in a permanent way — not just Ukrainian land, but millions of Ukrainians who live on that land. And of course NATO has become a central issue in President Zelensky’s willingness to talk about an end to the war. He feels that solid security guarantees are critical to any Ukrainian effort in ending this war, and for the Ukrainians, the best guarantees come from NATO membership. How do you evaluate Trump’s appointments so far? Some are more conventional GOP voices on foreign policy — such as Rubio — some less so — such as Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence. The secretary of state and the national security adviser [Michael Waltz], you have two figures with significant experience in foreign policy, people who I think have a good understanding of present challenges that are posed from our adversaries, stressing the importance of U.S. leadership in many ways. I think John Ratcliffealso falls into this category based on his experience not just on the Hill but his previous role as the [director of national intelligence]. The other ones are a little harder to judge because there’s not a lot of background on what their positions are, and I think that will come out through their confirmation hearings. On countering China, Trump seems to be entering office sending mixed signals — perhaps most notably by trying to save TikTok. What can he do to signal seriousness about the threat of China? [Rubio and Waltz] are two individuals who do have a track record of recognizing the challenge and threat that China poses under the Communist Party leadership. I think with the two of them there, we’re likely to see a push for a harder line, but also a recognition that trade with China is also important. The big question mark … will be the issue of tariffs. But we also … want to emphasize more the importance of human rights when it comes to China, and this gets at, I think, a common thread in what we call CRINK, the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea alliance, which are authoritarian regimes that are trying to undermine the West and the United States. And at the root of their commonality are gross abuses of human rights. When we tie these threats together, how we respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I think, will have an impact on the Chinese Communist Party’s thinking toward Taiwan. If we stand firm, if we maintain support for Ukraine, I think that we could get the Chinese leadership to think twice before they might move against Taiwan. How confident are you that Trump and his GOP allies understand this interconnectedness? I think increasingly [they do], and I think when you look at the early stages of the full-scale invasion by Russia of Ukraine, we saw the Iranians provide critical support in the form of the Shahed drones. I think what’s also highlighted this connection is the decision by North Korea to send 12,000 or so of its troops to join Russian forces in its fight against Ukraine. So we are seeing quite explicitly and openly these regimes helping each other out … and in the process, they pose a great threat. On an issue closer to home, your immigration policy briefsays Congress should “lift or eliminate caps on temporary worker visa programs like the H-2B and H-1B.” Have you been pleasantly surprised that Trump has been recently sticking up for H-1B visas amid some in his party bashing them? We think those are important, and it’s important that we recognize that if there is a roundup and deportation of a number of people who are here illegally, that will have an impact on the labor force … on companies’ ability to produce what they have been so far with those laborers. And so we certainly support an improvement and reform of the legal immigration system here to ensure that our economy can continue to grow, and we think that H-2B and the H-1B are important parts of that. On the ceasefire deal, how does this tee up Trump’s policy toward Israel going forward? There’ll be a lot of work for the United States to do with the various phases of this deal to ensure that it moves forward and that Hamas in particular lives up to what it has agreed to. And so, I think, while hopefully the fighting has ended, there’ll still be a lot of work to do. We all have to remember this would not have happened if Hamas did not launch the worst attack against Israel and Jews since the Holocaust.

Previsões econômicas do FMI para 2025 e mais além: crescimento moderado, mais divergências entre principais economias - IMF blog

 Previsões econômicas do FMI para 2025 e mais além: crescimento moderado, mais divergências entre principais economias - IMF blog

As One Cycle Ends, Another Begins Amid Growing Divergence (Credit: George Clerck/iStock by Getty Images) By Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas We project global growth will remain steady at 3.3 percent this year and next, broadly aligned with potential growth that has substantially weakened since before the pandemic. Inflation is declining, to 4.2 percent this year and 3.5 percent next year, in a return to central bank targets that will allow further normalization of monetary policy. This will help draw to a close the global disruptions of recent years, including the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which precipitated the largest inflation surge in four decades. Though the global growth outlook is broadly unchanged from October, divergences across countries are widening. Among advanced economies, the United States is stronger than previously projected on continued strength in domestic demand. We have raised our growth projection for the US this year by 0.5 percentage point, to 2.7 percent. Growth in the euro area, by contrast, is likely to increase only modestly, to 1 percent from 0.8 percent in 2024. Headwinds include weak momentum, especially in manufacturing, low consumer confidence, and the persistence of a negative energy price shock. European gas prices remain about five times as high as in the United States, versus twice as high before the pandemic. In emerging market economies, growth projections are broadly unchanged, at 4.2 percent and 4.3 percent this year and next. Elevated trade and policy uncertainty is contributing to anemic demand in many countries, but economic activity is likely to pick up as this uncertainty recedes. This includes China, where we now project 4.5 percent growth next year, up 0.4 percentage point from our prior forecast. Some divergence between large economies has been cyclical, with the US economy operating above its potential while Europe and China are below. Under current policies, this cyclical divergence will dissipate. But the divergence between the US and Europe is more due to structural factors, and the disconnect will linger if these are left unaddressed. It reflects persistently stronger US productivity growth, particularly but not exclusively in the technology sector, linked to a more favorable business environment and deeper capital markets. Over time, this translates into higher returns on US investment, increased inbound capital flows, a stronger dollar and US living standards pulling away from those of other advanced economies. For China, it is notable that potential growth is now more like that of other emerging market economies. Economic policy uncertainty is elevated, with many governments newly elected in 2024. Our projections incorporate recent market developments and the impact of heightened trade policy uncertainty, assumed to be temporary, but refrain from making assumptions about potential policy changes that are currently under public debate. In the near term, a constellation of risks could further exacerbate these divergences. European economies could slow more than anticipated, especially if investors grow more concerned about public debt sustainability in more vulnerable countries. The main risk is that euro area monetary and fiscal policy could simultaneously run out of room if weaker economic activity pushes interest rates back toward the effective lower bound just as insufficient fiscal consolidation raises risk premia, in turn further constraining fiscal policy. In China, should fiscal and monetary measures prove insufficient to address domestic weakness, the economy is at risk of a debt-deflation stagnation trap, where falling prices raise the real value of debt, undermining activity further. The sharp decline in Chinese government bond yields, seen as haven for local investors, shows rising investor concern. Both in China and Europe, these factors could lower inflation and economic growth. By contrast, while many of the policy shifts under the incoming US administration are hard to quantify precisely, they are likely to push inflation higher in the near term relative to our baseline. Some indicated policies, such as looser fiscal policy or deregulation efforts, would stimulate aggregate demand and increase inflation in the near term, as spending and investment increase immediately. Other policies, such as higher tariffs or immigration curbs, will play out like negative supply shocks, reducing output and adding to price pressures. A combination of surging demand and shrinking supply would likely reignite US price pressures, though the effect on economic output in the near term would be ambiguous. Higher inflation would prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates and could even require rate hikes that would in turn strengthen the dollar and widen US external deficits. The combination of tighter US monetary policy and a stronger dollar would tighten financial conditions, especially for emerging markets and developing economies. Investors already anticipate such an outcome, with the US dollar gaining around 4 percent since the November election. Overall, these near-term risks could lead to further divergence across economies. In the medium term, about five years, the positive effects of the US fiscal shock may dissipate and could even reverse if fiscal vulnerabilities increase. Deregulation efforts can boost potential growth in the medium term if they remove red tape and stimulate innovation. However, there is a risk that excessive deregulation could also weaken financial safeguards and increase financial vulnerabilities, putting the US economy on a dangerous boom-bust path. Medium-term risks to economic output would be heightened by restrictive trade policies and stricter migration limits. Renewed inflation pressures, should they arise so soon after the recent surge, could well de-anchor inflation expectations this time around, as people and businesses are now much more vigilant about protecting their real income and profitability. Inflation expectations are further away from central bank targets than in 2017–21, which suggests increased risks of higher inflation. In this environment, monetary policy may need to be more agile and proactive to prevent expectations from de-anchoring, while macro-financial policies will need to remain vigilant to avoid a buildup of financial risks. The issue is likely to be exacerbated for emerging market economies, given the passthrough of dollar exchange rates to domestic prices and the effects of weaker domestic growth in China. In most cases, the appropriate policy response in emerging market economies will be to let currencies depreciate as needed while adjusting monetary policy to achieve price stability. However, in cases where inflation dynamics have become clearly unanchored or where there are financial stability risks, capital flow management and foreign exchange interventions could help, as long as these are not a substitute for necessary macroeconomic adjustments, in line with the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework. For several countries, fiscal policy efforts have been delayed or insufficient to stabilize debt dynamics. It is now urgent to restore fiscal sustainability before it is too late and to build sufficient buffers to address future shocks that could be sizable and recurrent. Additional delays could trigger a worrying spiral where borrowing costs keep rising as markets lose confidence, further increasing adjustment needs. Recent strains in Brazil’s financial markets, like the reaction to the UK’s September 2022 mini-budget, underscore how funding conditions can deteriorate suddenly. While any sizable fiscal consolidation is bound to weigh on economic activity, countries should take special care to preserve growth as much as possible along the consolidation path, for instance by focusing the adjustment on reducing untargeted transfers or subsidies rather than government investment spending. To achieve this—and help overcome persistent structural differences driving growth divergences—there should be renewed focus on ambitious structural reforms to directly boost growth. These include targeted reforms to better allocate resources, increase government revenues, attract more capital, and foster innovation and competition. Finally, additional efforts should be made to strengthen and improve our multilateral institutions to help unlock a richer, more resilient, and sustainable global economy. Unilateral policies that distort competition—such as tariffs, nontariff barriers, or subsidies—rarely improve domestic prospects durably. They are unlikely to ameliorate external imbalances and may instead hurt trading partners, spur retaliation, and leave every country worse off.

Jeff Kearns Managing Editor IMF Blog jkearns@IMF.org   Thank you again for your interest in IMF Blog.  Read more of our latest content here.

A poluição por chumbo pode ter contribuído para a decadência do Império Romano - Katherine Kornei, The New York Times (Estadão)

Estadão

Ciência

A contaminação que pode ter baixado o QI de um dos principais impérios da história

Nova pesquisa detalha o que pode ter sido o primeiro caso de poluição industrial generalizada no mundo: a poluição na forma de chumbo entre os romanos

 

Por Katherine Kornei, The New York Times

O Estado de S. Paulo, 16/01/2025

Há aproximadamente dois mil anos, o Império Romano estava florescendo. Mas algo sinistro pairava no ar. Literalmente.

Uma poluição generalizada na forma de chumbo atmosférico estava afetando a saúde e a inteligência, relataram pesquisadores na semana passada na revista Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Durante cerca de dois séculos, a partir de 27 a.C., um período de relativa estabilidade e prosperidade conhecido como Pax Romana, o império se estendia por toda a Europa, Oriente Médio e norte da África. Sua economia dependia da cunhagem de moedas de prata, o que exigia enormes operações de mineração.

No entanto, extrair prata da Terra produz muito chumbo, disse Joseph McConnell, cientista ambiental do Desert Research Institute, um grupo sem fins lucrativos baseado em Nevada (EUA), e o principal autor da nova pesquisa. “Se você produzir uma onça (unidade de medida que equivale a 28,35 gramas) de prata, teria produzido algo como 10 mil onças de chumbo.”

E o chumbo tem uma série de efeitos negativos no corpo humano. “Não existe um nível seguro de exposição ao chumbo”, disse Deborah Cory-Slechta, uma neurotoxicologista do Centro Médico da Universidade de Rochester que não esteve envolvida na pesquisa.

McConnell e seus colegas agora detectaram chumbo em camadas de gelo coletadas na Rússia e na Groenlândia que datam da época do Império Romano. O chumbo entrou na atmosfera a partir das operações de mineração romanas, pegou carona em correntes de ar e eventualmente caiu da atmosfera como neve no Ártico, supõe a equipe.

Os níveis de chumbo que McConnell e seus colaboradores mediram eram extremamente baixos, aproximadamente uma molécula contendo chumbo por trilhão de moléculas de água. Mas as amostras de gelo foram coletadas a milhares de quilômetros do sul da Europa, e as concentrações de chumbo teriam sido altamente dispersas após uma jornada tão longa.

Para estimar a quantidade de chumbo originalmente emitida pelas operações de mineração romanas, os pesquisadores trabalharam de forma reversa: usando poderosos modelos computadorizados da atmosfera do planeta e fazendo suposições sobre a localização dos locais de mineração, a equipe variou a quantidade de chumbo emitido para corresponder às concentrações que mediram no gelo.

Em um caso, eles assumiram que toda a produção de prata ocorria em um local de mineração historicamente importante no sudoeste da Espanha conhecido como Rio Tinto. Em outro caso, presumiram que a mineração de prata estava igualmente distribuída por dezenas de locais.

A equipe calculou que de 3.300 a 4.600 toneladas de chumbo eram emitidas na atmosfera a cada ano pelas operações de mineração de prata romanas. Os pesquisadores, então, estimaram como todo aquele chumbo seria espalhado pelo Império Romano.

“Executamos o modelo na direção correta para ver como essas emissões seriam distribuídas”, disse McConnell.

Com essas concentrações de chumbo na atmosfera em mãos, os pesquisadores usaram dados dos dias modernos para estimar quanto chumbo teria entrado na corrente sanguínea das pessoas na Roma antiga.

McConnell e seus colegas se concentraram em bebês e crianças. Os jovens são particularmente suscetíveis a absorver chumbo do ambiente por meio da ingestão e da inalação, disse o Dr. Bruce Lanphear, médico de saúde pública da Universidade Simon Fraser na Colúmbia Britânica que não esteve envolvido na pesquisa.

Nas últimas décadas, os níveis de chumbo no sangue das crianças foram correlacionados com uma série de métricas de saúde física e mental, incluindo QI, disse Cory-Slechta. “Temos dados reais sobre os escores de QI em crianças com diferentes concentrações de chumbo no sangue.”

Usando essas relações dos dias modernos, McConnell e sua equipe estimaram que as crianças em grande parte do Império Romano teriam cerca de 2 a 5 microgramas adicionais de chumbo por decilitro de sangue. Tais níveis correspondem a declínios de QI de aproximadamente 2 ou 3 pontos.

Para comparação, as crianças americanas nos anos 1970 tinham aprimoramentos médios nos níveis de chumbo no sangue de cerca de 15 microgramas de chumbo a mais por decilitro de sangue antes da eliminação gradual da gasolina com chumbo e das tintas com chumbo. Seu correspondente declínio médio de QI foi de cerca de 9 pontos.

Mas a exposição ao chumbo teria tido outros efeitos negativos nos romanos também. Níveis mais altos de chumbo no sangue também foram vinculados a maiores incidências de partos prematuros e funcionamento cognitivo reduzido na velhice. “Isso te segue ao longo da vida”, disse Lanphear.

Alguns estudiosos desenvolveram a hipótese de que o envenenamento por chumbo desempenhou papel importante no declínio do Império Romano. Mas essa ideia tem sido questionada, pelo menos no que diz respeito à água contaminada por tubulações de chumbo. Um estudo de 2014 mostrou que, embora as tubulações usadas para distribuir água em Roma aumentassem os níveis de chumbo, era improvável que a água fosse verdadeiramente prejudicial.

Esses novos achados fazem sentido, disse Hugo Delile, geoarqueólogo do Centro Nacional de Pesquisa Científica da França, que não esteve envolvido na pesquisa. “Eles confirmam a extensão da poluição por chumbo resultante das atividades de mineração e metalurgia romanas.”

De acordo com McConnell, a pesquisa também confere uma honra duvidosa à mineração romana. “Até onde sei, é o exemplo mais antigo de poluição industrial generalizada.”

 

Adequações inevitáveis e inadiáveis no serviço diplomático brasileiro - Gustavo Buttes (Jota)

 DIPLOMACIA

Adequações inevitáveis e inadiáveis no serviço diplomático brasileiro

Renovação ainda segue um desafio, mas plano de ações afirmativas avança para ampliar número de mulheres, negros e PCDs no Itamaraty

Gustavo Buttes

JOTA, 16/01/2025

Fachada do Palácio Itamaraty, em Brasília / Crédito: Ana de Oliveira/AIG-MRE

Há uma máxima no Itamaraty, cunhada pelo ex-chanceler Azeredo da Silveira, segundo a qual “a melhor tradição do Itamaraty é saber renovar-se.” 

Renovar-se segue sendo um desafio para o Ministério das Relações Exteriores (MRE), tanto mais quando as desigualdades marcantes observadas na sociedade brasileira encontram, no Itamaraty, expressão real e insofismável.Entre diplomatas, além do reduzido número de negros em seus quadros, muito levemente mitigado pelas cotas em concursos públicos, também é mínima a presença de mulheres, mantida há décadas em torno de resistentes 23%. Pessoas com deficiência são apenas 1,77%.

Nesse sentido, a Associação e Sindicato dos Diplomatas Brasileiros (ADB Sindical) saúda a recente divulgação do Plano de Ações Afirmativas (PAA) do MRE, no contexto do Programa Federal de Ações Afirmativas. 

Como primeiro órgão federal a divulgar seu PAA, da mesma forma como já fora, em 2001/2002, o primeiro a promover política de apoio à formação de candidatos negros, convém registrar que esse pioneirismo de hoje é fruto do amadurecimento sindical da categoria e da iniciativa igualmente pioneira das mulheres diplomatas, que criaram em 2023, depois de mais de 10 anos de ação coletiva, a Associação das Mulheres Diplomatas Brasileiras, primeira associação exclusivamente de mulheres em todo o funcionalismo público. De igual modo, outros grupos se organizaram e passaram a pleitear mudanças na estrutura de pessoal do Itamaraty. Somos nós, portanto, buscando a inadiável renovação.

O PAA do MRE traz avanços no tocante à transversalização dos temas de diversidade e inclusão naquilo que são as ações finalísticas. São 16 ações com impacto direto sobre os conteúdos da agenda diplomática brasileira. O Itamaraty incorpora, assim, à política externa brasileira, compromissos louváveis e muito relevantes. Em outras 18 ações referentes à gestão de pessoas e gestão administrativa, há também propostas de inegável mérito.

A preocupação persiste, contudo, no tocante ao processo de implementação de tais medidas, especialmente as últimas. O PAA lançado pelo MRE silencia quanto a metas mensuráveis e prazos para seu cumprimento, além de usar linguagem bem-intencionada, mas genérica. Sem compromisso com resultados vinculantes, as propostas de ação afirmativa arriscam-se a permanecer no plano da retórica, do discurso.

Nosso sindicato irá fazer o monitoramento desse plano para que, no prazo de sua vigência, o Itamaraty possa apresentar mudanças visíveis em sua composição e organização. Iremos cobrar, por exemplo, a presença de negros, mulheres e pessoas com deficiência em funções de chefia no Brasil e nas principais missões no exterior. Hoje, dos 20 postos brasileiros mais importantes, apenas um, a embaixada em Washington, é chefiado por uma mulher. Nenhum é chefiado por um negro.

É preciso mudar tal perfil, por meio de um esforço coletivo para trazer à tona a renovação: das paredes repletas de quadros de homens brancos a marcar a história da diplomacia brasileira vem o inadiável apelo pela diversidade. Entendemos que a inclusão de grupos historicamente vulnerabilizados é pilar essencial para o adequado exercício das competências que cabem ao Itamaraty na formulação e execução da Política Externa Brasileira.

Além do monitoramento do PAA, queremos avançar nas transformações que serão, mais uma vez, a expressão de uma tradição que sabe renovar-se. Entre elas, está a modernização do regime jurídico do MRE, promovendo mudanças estruturais para melhor servir a sociedade brasileira. O fazer diplomático envolve a prestação de um serviço público de alta relevância, mesmo em condições extremamente adversas (guerras, conflagrações internas, crises e catástrofes climáticas e ambientais). Em um mundo em constante transformação, faz-se necessária a devida atualização do arcabouço jurídico que sustenta a atuação diplomática do Brasil.

Em nosso entendimento, as mudanças almejadas devem ser fruto de ampla negociação interna. Para funcionários e funcionárias treinados na diplomacia, a negociação é condição sine qua non para a consecução do objetivo comum de fortalecimento institucional. Tal construção envolve, por parte do MRE, a incorporação e reconhecimento da pertinência da atividade sindical.

A ADB Sindical – um sindicato de diplomatas – reconhece-se, hoje, 50 anos após a célebre máxima de Azeredo da Silveira, como legítima manifestação da renovação comprometida com a excelência da tradição diplomática.

GUSTAVO BUTTES

residente da ADB Sindical na gestão 2024-2026. Primeiro-secretário do Ministério das Relações Exteriores, atualmente está lotado no Departamento de América do Sul. Formado em Relações Internacionais pela Faculdade Santa Marcelina e mestre em Diplomacia pelo Instituto Rio Branco, serviu em Teerã, Milão e Maputo. Aprovado no Concurso de Admissão à Carreira Diplomática em 2010, já atuou em diversas funções também no Brasil, incluindo a Subchefia da Divisão de Imigração. Foi condecorado com a Medalha Mérito Santos-Dumont em 2014.

O "Farewell Address" de Joe Biden: ameaças vindas de uma oligarquia que quer dominar o país (CNN)

Joe Biden se despede da presidência e dos "fellow Americans" alertando sobre as ameaças representadas pela oligarquia que pretende dominar seu país. 

Stephen Collinson, Caitlin Hu and Shelby Rose

'My eternal thanks ....'

US President Joe Biden delivers his farewell address to the nation on Wednesday in the Oval Office.

Presidents often use their final chance to speak to the American people to warn of dangers ahead.   George Washington’s farewell address in 1796 resonated with the humility of a president who regarded himself as the servant of the people rather than the other way around. He also warned of the dangers posed by partisan politics – in a way that seems remarkably prescient today.   “It agitates the community with ill-founded jealousies and false alarms, kindles the animosity of one part against another, foments occasionally riot and insurrection. It opens the door to foreign influence and corruption, which finds a facilitated access to the government itself through the channels of party passions,” Washington said.   In 1961, Dwight Eisenhower, a former general who helped win World War II, remarked that a vast military was necessary to face down the Soviet Union – but he worried how it would change society and the world.   “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist,” Eisenhower said.

Biden delivers his farewell address from the Oval Office in the White House, in Washington, DC, on Wednesday. Clockwise from left; Biden, second gentleman Doug Emhoff, Vice President Kamala Harris, first lady Jill Biden, Biden's son Hunter Biden and daughter-in-law Melissa Cohen Biden.

And on Wednesday night, in the Oval Office, it was President Joe Biden’s turn to say goodbye.   “My eternal thanks to you, the American people,” the president said from the Oval Office at just after 8 p.m. on the East Coast. “After 50 years of public service, I give you my word. I still believe in the idea for which this nation stands, a nation where the strengths of our institutions and the character of our people matter and must endure.”   Then came his George Washington moment.   “Tonight, I want to warn the country of some things that give me great concern,” Biden said. He cited “a dangerous concentration of power in the hands of a very few ultra wealthy people” and sounded an alarm about “dangerous consequences if their abuse of power is left unchecked.”   No prizes for guessing who he was talking about.   With a clear eye on Donald Trump’s new superfan Elon Musk and the group of tech tycoons gathering around the president-elect, Biden warned that an oligarchy was taking shape in America.    Then he echoed Ike. “I’m equally concerned about the potential rise of a tech industrial complex that can pose real dangers for our country as well,” Biden said. “Americans are being buried under an avalanche of misinformation and disinformation, enabling the abuse of power. The free press is crumbling … social media is giving up on fact checking. The truth is smothered by lies told for power and for profit.”

Biden as a newly-elected senator on November 10, 1972. (Guy DeLort/WWD/Penske Media via Getty Images)

Biden was resolute, and had a photo of his late son Beau, who died of brain cancer, on the table over his left shoulder.   But the burden of a grueling four-year presidency that is ending in his ninth decade was poignantly evident in his reedy voice and slurring words. If Biden is still up to the work of being president, age robbed him of the power to sell his ideas and to paint the national narrative months ago.

President-elect Donald Trump and Biden debate at CNN's Atlanta studios on June 27, 2024.

As he closed, with his political energy all but exhausted, Biden was like the aged magician Prospero in Shakespeare’s “The Tempest,” alone on the stage when his “charms are all o’erthrown.”   “Now it’s your turn to stand guard. May you all be the keeper of the flame, may you keep the faith,” Biden told the country.   “I love America. You love it too. God bless you.”   But the reality of what will happen at noon on Monday hovered like a dark cloud over the address.   Biden said his presidency would be a bridge — and it was.   But he didn’t build it to a promised new Democratic generation.   Instead, he’s the president who stayed too long and whose administration thus arched between two terms of a nemesis he once defeated and then let back into power: Donald Trump.