sábado, 2 de dezembro de 2006

648) L.I.V.R.O.



L.I.V.R.O.

Existe entre nós, muito utilizado, mas que vem perdendo prestígio por falta de propaganda dirigida, e comentários cultos, embora seja superior a qualquer outro meio de divulgação, educação e divertimento, um revolucionário conceito de tecnologia de informação.

Chama-se de Local de Informações Variadas, Reutilizáveis e Ordenadas – L.I.V.R.O.

L.I.V.R.O. que, em sua forma atual, vem sendo utilizado há mais de quinhentos anos, representa um avanço fantástico na tecnologia. Não tem fios, circuitos elétricos, nem pilhas. Não necessita ser conectado a nada, ligado a coisa alguma. É tão fácil de usar que qualquer criança pode operá-lo. Basta abri-lo!

Cada L.I.V.R.O. é formado por uma seqüência de folhas numeradas, feitas de papel (atualmente reciclável), que podem armazenar milhares, e até milhões, de informações. As páginas são unidas por um sistema chamado lombada, que as mantém permanentemente em seqüência correta. Com recurso do TPO Tecnologia do Papel Opaco – os fabricantes de L.I.V.R.O.S podem usar as duas faces (páginas) da folha de papel. Isso possibilita duplicar a quantidade de dados inseridos e reduzir os custos à metade!

Especialistas dividem-se quanto aos projetos de expansão da inserção de dados em cada unidade. É que, para fazer L.I.V.R.O.S com mais informações, basta usar mais folhas. Isso porém os torna mais grossos e mais difíceis de ser transportados, atraindo críticas dos adeptos da portabilidade do sistema, visivelmente influenciados pela nanoestupidez.

Cada página do L.I.V.R.O. deve ser escaneada opticamente, e as informações transferidas diretamente para a CPU do usuário, no próprio cérebro, sem qualquer formatação especial. Lembramos apenas que, quanto maior e mais complexa a informação a ser absorvida, maior deverá ser a capacidade de processamento do usuário.

Vantagem imbatível do aparelho é que, quando em uso, um simples movimento de dedo permite acesso instantâneo à próxima página. E a leitura do L.I.V.R.O. pode ser retomada a qualquer momento, bastando abri-lo. Nunca apresenta "ERRO FATAL DE SENHA", nem precisa ser reinicializado. Só fica estragado ou até mesmo inutilizável quando atingido por líquido. Caso caia no mar, por exemplo. Acontecimento raríssimo, que só acontece em caso de naufrágio.

O comando adicional moderno chamado ÍNDICE REMISSIVO, muito ajudado em sua confecção pelos computadores (L.I.V.R.O. se utiliza de toda tecnologia adicional), permite acessar qualquer página instantaneamente e avançar ou retroceder na busca com muita facilidade. A maioria dos modelos à venda já vem com esse FOFO (softer) instalado.

Um acessório opcional, o marcador de páginas, permite também que você acesse o L.I.V.R.O. exatamente no local em que o deixou na última utilização, mesmo que ele esteja fechado. A compatibilidade dos marcadores de página é total, permitindo que funcionem em qualquer modelo ou tipo de L.I.V.R.O. sem necessidade de configuração. Todo L.I.V.R.O. suporta o uso simultâneo de vários marcadores de página, caso o usuário deseje manter selecionados múltiplos trechos ao mesmo tempo. A capacidade máxima para uso de marcadores coincide com a metade do número de páginas do L.I.V.R.O.

Pode-se ainda personalizar o conteúdo do L.I.V.R.O., por meio de anotações em suas margens. Para isso, deve-se utilizar um periférico de Linguagem Apagável Portátil de Intercomunicação Simplificada – L.A.P.I.S.

Elegante, durável e barato, L.I.V.R.O. vem sendo apontado como o instrumento de entretenimento e cultura do futuro, como já foi de todo o passado ocidental. São milhões de títulos e formas que anualmente programadores (editores) põem à disposição do público utilizando essa plataforma.

E, uma característica de suprema importância: L.I.V.R.O. não enguiça!

647) A matter of definition...

Em matéria de religião, eu me defino como "irreligioso", simplesmente.
Não tenho nada contra as religiões, aliás, nem algo a favor.
Sou simplesmente indiferente, no plano pessoal.
Como sociólogo, apenas reconheço a tremenda importância das religiões, na vida das pessoas, no destino das sociedades em geral.
O mundo não existe sem religião, elas são importantes e necessárias, pois são elas que dão, à maior parte das pessoas, valores pelos quais viver.
No meu caso, tenho os meus valores e dispenso os das religiões, embora vários dos meus valores se confundam com os de várias religiões.
Mas trata-se de uma coincidência, não de uma imposição ou necessidade...

646) Bouvard e Pecouchet, American Style...

Para quem ainda nao conhece, uma versão americana de Bouvard et Pecouchet:

Ambrose Bierce's The Devil's Dictionary

Link: http://www.online-literature.com/bierce/devilsdictionary/
Acesso: 2 Dez 2006

PREFACE
The Devil's Dictionary was begun in a weekly paper in 1881, and was continued in a desultory way at long intervals until 1906. In that year a large part of it was published in covers with the title The Cynic's Word Book, a name which the author had not the power to reject or happiness to approve. To quote the publishers of the present work:

"This more reverent title had previously been forced upon him by the religious scruples of the last newspaper in which a part of the work had appeared, with the natural consequence that when it came out in covers the country already had been flooded by its imitators with a score of 'cynic' books -- The Cynic's This, The Cynic's That, and The Cynic's t'Other. Most of these books were merely stupid, though some of them added the distinction of silliness. Among them, they brought the word 'cynic' into disfavor so deep that any book bearing it was discredited in advance of publication."
Meantime, too, some of the enterprising humorists of the country had helped themselves to such parts of the work as served their needs, and many of its definitions, anecdotes, phrases and so forth, had become more or less current in popular speech. This explanation is made, not with any pride of priority in trifles, but in simple denial of possible charges of plagiarism, which is no trifle. In merely resuming his own the author hopes to be held guiltless by those to whom the work is addressed -- enlightened souls who prefer dry wines to sweet, sense to sentiment, wit to humor and clean English to slang.
A conspicuous, and it is hope not unpleasant, feature of the book is its abundant illustrative quotations from eminent poets, chief of whom is that learned and ingenius cleric, Father Gassalasca Jape, S.J., whose lines bear his initials. To Father Jape's kindly encouragement and assistance the author of the prose text is greatly indebted.
*
Related Links:
o The Devil's Dictionary Summary and Author Biography
http://www.online-literature.com/scripts/out.php?id=736

645) Stephen Jay Gould: uma pagina nao-oficial, muito rica

Para aqueles que, como eu, se interessam por biologia evolucionaria e apreciam a obra do paleontologo de Harvard, falecido, Stephen Jay Gould:

http://www.stephenjaygould.org/

Stephen Jay Gould (1941-2002) was among the best known and widely read scientists of the late 20th century. A paleontologist and educator at Harvard University, Gould made his largest contributions to science as the leading spokes-person for evolutionary theory. His monthly columns in Natural History magazine and his popular works on evolution have earned him numerous awards and one of the largest readerships in the popular-science genre — penning altogether over twenty successful books throughout his career.

For more than 30 years Gould served on the faculty at Harvard, where he was Alexander Agassiz Professor of Zoology, Professor of Geology, Biology, and the History of Science, as well as curator for Invertebrate Paleontology at the institution's Museum of Comparative Zoology. On this website you will find articles by Gould and his colleagues focusing on the finer points of his work, the nature of life's evolution, and the general ontogeny of evolutionary theory.

Tem tudo isto aqui:
Biography Bibliography Quotations Media Library Reviews Interviews People Reflections Books Links

Coloquei, só de curiosidade, a palavra "Brazil" no Search instrumento do site, e acabou resultando nisto:

Results from This Site: 1 - 10 of 16 total results for Brazil

A.C. Seward, "Darwin and Modern Science," 1909 - Chapter 15
... note-books and collections of W.J. Burchell, the great traveller in Africa (1810-15) and Brazil (1825-30). The most interesting of his records on this subject are brought together in the following paragraphs ...
http://www.stephenjaygould.org/library/modern-science/chapter15.html - 78k - 2005-11-17

Charles Darwin, "On the Origin Of Species," 1859 - Chapter 10
... seen in the wonderful collection of fossil bones made by MM. Lund and Clausen in the caves of Brazil. I was so much impressed with these facts that I strongly insisted, in 1839 and 1845, on this `law ...
http://www.stephenjaygould.org/library/on-the-origin/chapter10.html - 67k - 2005-11-17

A.C. Seward, "Darwin and Modern Science," 1909 - Chapter 3
... the beautiful blue of our little Lycaenidae to the magnificent azure of the large Morphinae of Brazil. In a great many cases, though not by any means in all, the male butterflies are "more beautiful" ...
http://www.stephenjaygould.org/library/modern-science/chapter03.html - 139k - 2005-11-17

A.C. Seward, "Darwin and Modern Science," 1909 - Chapter 17
... -line or a series of islands interrupted by shallow seas, just as one would expect if, and when, a Brazil-Ethiopian mass of land were breaking up. Lastly from Central America to the Mediterranean stretches ...
http://www.stephenjaygould.org/library/modern-science/chapter17.html - 56k - 2005-11-17

Charles Darwin, "Autobiography," 1902
... in the same cabin. We had several quarrels; for instance, early in the voyage at Bahia, in Brazil, he defended and praised slavery, which I abominated, and told me that he had just visited a great slave ...
http://www.stephenjaygould.org/library/darwin_autobiography.html - 139k - 2005-09-26

Robert Chambers, "Vestiges of the Natural History of Creation," Ch. 10, 1844
... least two other parts of the earth,—namely, the sub-Himalayan hills, near the Sutlej, and in Brazil, (both in the tertiary strata ;) the first being a large species of semnopithecus, and the second ...
http://www.stephenjaygould.org/library/vestiges/chapter10.html - 14k - 2005-09-26

A.C. Seward, "Darwin and Modern Science," 1909 - Chapter 7
... . That fertility is the more usual is shown by the excessive fertility of the hybrid population of Brazil. This, and the great variability of the distinguishing characters of the different races, as well ...
http://www.stephenjaygould.org/library/modern-science/chapter07.html - 74k - 2005-11-17

A.C. Seward, "Darwin and Modern Science," 1909 - Chapter 9
... ", "Archiv fur Religionswissenschaft", VIII. (1905), page 248.) The Borororos, an Indian tribe of Brazil, will have it that they are parrots of a gorgeous red plumage which live in their native forests ...
http://www.stephenjaygould.org/library/modern-science/chapter09.html - 58k - 2005-11-17

A.C. Seward, "Darwin and Modern Science," 1909 - Chapter 18
... by the discovery of these fossil bones, was doubtless deepened as, in his progress southward from Brazil to Patagonia, he found similar species of Edentate animals everywhere replacing one another among ...
http://www.stephenjaygould.org/library/modern-science/chapter18.html - 142k - 2005-11-17

A.C. Seward, "Darwin and Modern Science," 1909 - Chapter 20
... -fertilisation produces no result. This self-sterility is affected by climatic conditions: thus in Brazil Eschscholzia californica is absolutely sterile to the pollen of its own flowers; the descendants ...
http://www.stephenjaygould.org/library/modern-science/chapter20.html - 70k - 2005-11-17

Unofficial SJG Archive - People - Theodosius Dobzhansky (1900-1975)
... of fruit flies in the mountains of Arizona, New Mexico, California and even the rain forests of Brazil. Dobzhansky's intimate familiarity with the processes of variation and evolution in these fast-breeding ...
http://www.stephenjaygould.org/people/theodosius_dobzhansky.html - 9k - 2006-02-01

SJG Archive - People - William D. Hamilton - Interview
... groups there is male winglessness and in others, female winglessness. Frans Roes: You went to Brazil in 1975 to study the fig wasp. What did you discover? W. D. Hamilton: Actually, I went to study life ...
http://www.stephenjaygould.org/library/hamilton_interview.html - 13k - 2005-09-26

Charles Darwin, "On the Origin Of Species," 1859 - Chapter 11
... America a host of peculiar species belonging to European genera occur. On the highest mountains of Brazil, some few European genera were found by Gardner, which do not exist in the wide intervening hot ...
http://www.stephenjaygould.org/library/on-the-origin/chapter11.html - 73k - 2005-11-17

Charles Darwin, "On the Origin Of Species," 1859 - Chapter 12
... manner throughout the world. I well remember, when first collecting in the fresh waters of Brazil, feeling much surprise at the similarity of the fresh-water insects, shells, &c., and at the dissimilarity ...
http://www.stephenjaygould.org/library/on-the-origin/chapter12.html - 56k - 2005-11-17

Michael Shermer, "Glorious Contingency," 1999
... this the butterfly effect and by now the metaphor is well known: A butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil, producing a storm in Texas. The uncertainty, of our past and unpredictability of our future created ...
http://www.stephenjaygould.org/library/shermer_contingency.html - 17k - 2005-09-26

Unofficial SJG Archive - People - Alexander Agassiz
... assistant in zoology at the museum, taking charge of it in 1865 during his father's absence in Brazil. In 1865 he became engaged in coal mining in Pennsylvania, and during the following year in the copper ...
http://www.stephenjaygould.org/people/alexander_agassiz.html - 8k - 2005-09-26

Afinal de contas, sua cadeira era a "Louis Agassiz", um sabio de Harvard, amigo do imperador Pedro II e que aprendeu um pouco de paleontologia passeando pelo Brasil, em meados do seculo XIX.

Boas visitas e boas leituras a todos.

PS: Tenho um antigo artigo, publicado na revista "Ciencia e Cultura", da SBPC, analisando a obra de Gould. Aos interessados, basta pedir.
-------------
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

644) Balanco de Pagamentos do Brasil: medias historicas

Tal como recebido do economista Ricardo Bergamini:

Balanço de Pagamentos – Fonte BCB
Base: De Janeiro de 2003 até Outubro de 2006

Balança Comercial
Série história de nossa balança comercial com base na média/ano foi como segue: 85/89 (superávit de US$ 13,5 bilhões = 4,57% do PIB); 90/94 (superávit de US$ 12,1 bilhões = 2,70% do PIB); 95/02 (déficit de US$ 1,1 bilhão = -0,16% do PIB). De janeiro de 2003 até outubro de 2006 (superávit de US$ 36,8 bilhões = 5,30% do PIB).

Necessidade de Financiamento do Balanço de Pagamentos
Série histórica de nossa necessidade de financiamento de balanço de pagamentos com base na média/ano foi como segue: 85/89 (US$ 13,4 bilhões = 4,56% do PIB); 90/94 (US$ 17,4 bilhões = 3,89% do PIB); 95/02 (US$ 50,9 bilhões = 7,86% do PIB). De janeiro de 2003 até outubro de 2006 (US$ 22,3 bilhões = 3,20% do PIB).

Investimentos Externos Líquidos (Diretos e Indiretos)
Série histórica dos investimentos externos líquidos (diretos e indiretos) com base na média/ano foi como segue: 85/89 (negativo de US$ 6,3 bilhões = -2,14% do PIB); 90/94 (positivo de US$ 7,0 bilhões = 1,57% do PIB); 95/02 (positivo de US$ 23,9 bilhões = 3,69% do PIB). De janeiro de 2003 até outubro de 2006 (positivo de US$ 0,4 bilhão = 0,06% do PIB).

Arquivos oficiais do governo estão disponíveis aos leitores.
Ricardo Bergamini
http://paginas.terra.com.br/noticias/ricardobergamini

643) Falcoes (e outras aves de rapina): atualizem sua contabilidade nuclear

A matéria abaixo, do Washington Post deste sábado (2/12/06), nos remete ao coração da Guerra Fria: a dissuasão nuclear.
Na era Bush, significa assegura a fiabilidade e eficácia dos vetores nucleares já disponíveis e, se necessário, produzir novas ferramentas, mais modernas e ainda mais eficientes.
Não se mencionam os custos, que devem andar pela casa das centenas de bilhões de dólares, em todas as vertentes da panóplia nuclear.
É um bocado de dinheiro, mas parece que é para a tranquilidade do Império...
-------------
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

New Nuclear Weapons Program To Continue
By Walter Pincus
Washington Post, Saturday, December 2, 2006; A07

The Nuclear Weapons Council, made up of senior Defense Department and National Nuclear Security Administration officials, said yesterday that they plan to continue developing a new nuclear weapons program even though recent studies suggested that existing stockpiles are in better condition than had been thought.

The announcement comes just two days after the release of studies by the Los Alamos and Lawrence Livermore national laboratories showing that plutonium triggers in currently stockpiled weapons will remain reliable for 90 to 100 years.

A major reason for starting the new weapons program -- known as the Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) -- was the belief that highly radioactive plutonium would degrade so much within 45 years that it could affect the reliability of the weapons in the current stockpile, many of which were built in the late 1960s.

The Nuclear Weapons Council determined that competing designs submitted by both national labs could result in reliable warheads "without underground testing," a key requirement of the program. The council members are expected to choose one of the two designs in the next few weeks and to develop cost estimates. Moving to the next phase of warhead development will require the approval of Congress, which will be controlled by Democrats next year.

Some members of Congress have said the plutonium studies raised questions about the need for the RRW program. Rep. David L. Hobson (R-Ohio), considered the father of the RRW program, said yesterday that, based on the plutonium studies, "they should take a breath because there are lots of demand for money." He added: "Congress is not going to be as robust about this though there is a need to have some scientific work done."

Yesterday, Rep. John M. Spratt Jr. (D-S.C.), the incoming chairman of the House Budget Committee, said it may be time to review not only the RRW program but also the Bush administration's 2001 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), which established the underlying need for nuclear weapons over the next 20 years.

Sen. Pete V. Domenici (R-N.M.) yesterday hailed the council decision to proceed with RRW, saying it could lead to "a weapon that is safer to store and defend, more reliable, and less costly to manufacture and maintain." Domenici, whose state is home to the Los Alamos laboratory, is currently chairman of the Senate Appropriations subcommittee that handles funds for the NNSA.

Robert W. Nelson, senior scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said that based on the recently released plutonium studies, the submarine-launched warhead up for replacement under the RRW program, the W-76, has a minimum age for reliability of about 85 years. Production of the W-76, the warhead for the Trident I and Trident II sub-launched missiles, began in 1978 and ended in 1987, during which time about 3,000 were turned out. The Trident I can carry up to eight warheads, the Trident II up to 14.

The Bush NPR contemplated reducing deployed warheads, then totaling about 3,800, to a level of 1,700 to 2,200 by 2012. At the same time there would be a non-deployed stockpile of 2,000 to 3,000 more weapons and a capability to resume underground testing and production of new warheads within a reasonable time. The RRW program envisions the initial production of new warheads almost 20 years from now.

Meanwhile, an ongoing program to refurbish the nonnuclear components in currently stockpiled warheads and bombs will continue, giving them an estimated 20 to 30 years of additional reliability.

Administrator Linton F. Brooks of the National Nuclear Security Administration described the RRW program yesterday as providing "the tools we need to build on the president's vision of maintaining the smallest nuclear stockpile that is consistent with national security requirements."

Resumindo: não há nenhuma possibilidade de que o desarmamento nuclear se faça, any time soon...

642) Produtividade em energia: um relatorio importante

Transcrevo abaixo o sumario executivo de um estudo da consultoria McKinsey sobre ganhos de produtividade em energia:

Productivity of growing global energy demand: A microeconomic perspective
McKinsey Global Institute
November 2006

Executive summary

To date, the global debate about energy has focused too narrowly on curbing demand. We argue that, rather than seeking to reduce end-user demand, and thereby the choice, comfort, convenience, and economic welfare desired by consumers, the best way to meet the challenge of growing global energy demand is to focus on energy productivity—how to use energy more productively—which reconciles both demand abatement and energy-efficiency.
According to McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) research, global energy demand will grow more quickly over the next 15 years than it has in the last 15. Demand will grow at a rate of 2.2 per cent per year in our base-case scenario, boosted by developing countries and consumer-driven segments of developed economies.
This acceleration in demand growth—particularly problematic amidst escalating world-wide concerns about the growing costs of energy, global dependence on volatile oil-producing regions, and harmful global climate change—will take place despite global energy productivity continuing to improve by 1.0 percent a year.
MGI’s in-depth case studies indicate that there are substantial and economically viable opportunities to boost energy productivity that have not been captured—an estimated 150 QBTUs (1), which could represent a 15 to 25 percent cut in the end-use energy demand by 2020. This would translate into a deceleration of global energy-demand growth to less than 1 percent a year, compared with the 2.2 percent anticipated in our base-case scenario—without impacting economic growth prospects or consumer well-being.
Unfortunately, market-distorting subsidies, information gaps, agency issues, and other market inefficiencies, are currently impeding improvements in energy productivity. Overall energy demand is not highly responsive, even under high energy-price scenarios. Consumers lack the information and capital they need to become more energy-productive, and tend to make comfort, safety, and convenience higher priorities than price. The small and fragmented nature of energy costs tends to deter businesses from seeking higher energy productivity.
In addition, a range of policies dampen price signals and reduce incentives for end-users to adopt viable energy-productive improvements. These include, for instance, fuel subsidies in many oil-exporting countries; lack of metering in Russian residential gas usage; and widespread energy subsidies to state-owned enterprise.
Shifting global energy demand from its current rapid growth trajectory will require the removal of existing policy distortions; improving transparency in the pricing and usage of energy; and the selective deployment of demand-side energy policies, such as standards. Policies will need to be targeted at and tailored to the various large end-user segments to encourage higher energy productivity; they will only be effective if they are predicated on a real understanding of the microeconomic dynamics of demand within specific end-use segments.
This report, “Productivity of Growing Energy Demand: A Microeconomic Perspective”, is the first of a two-stage series by MGI to introduce microeconomic analysis of end-use segments to the global-energy debate. Building on detailed global case-sector studies, it provides a useful context for discussing global energy demand and its complex dynamics. A further report, which we will publish in early 2007, will elaborate on our findings—particularly those at the sectoral
and fuel mix levels—and on their broader implications for the global economy.

(1) In view of a multitude of energy-demand definitions, we use Quadrillion British Thermal Units—QBTUs—as the base unit for all energy-demand segments in this document.


Aos interessados no estudo completo, recomendo seguir este link para cadastramento e download: Productivity of Growing Energy Demand: A Microeconomic Perspective (PDF - 2.04 MB).
Ou então me solicitar em particular, que eu posso enviar.

Complementação metodológica:
What is Energy Productivity?

Like labor or capital productivity, energy productivity measures the output and quality of goods and services generated with a given set of inputs. MGI measures it as the ratio of value added to energy inputs, which is the inverse of energy intensity of GDP, measured as a ratio of energy inputs to GDP.

Energy productivity is a useful tool with which to analyze the public-policy aims of demand abatement and energy-efficiency because it encapsulates both. By looking merely in terms of shrinking demand, there is a danger of denying opportunities to consumers—particularly those in developing economies who are an increasingly dominant force in global energy-demand growth. Rather than seeking to reduce end-user demand—and thus the level of comfort, convenience, and economic welfare demanded by consumers—there should be a focus on using the benefits of energy most productively.

The concept of energy productivity provides an overarching framework for understanding the evolving relationship between energy demand and economic growth. Energy-productivity improvements can come either from reducing the energy inputs required to produce the same level of energy services, or from increasing the quantity or quality of economic output. Within each of these, there are multiple components that can change over time.

The same level of energy services can be produced with fewer inputs if use is less intensive (e.g., smaller appliances); if technical efficiency improves (e.g., higher-mileage-car engines); or if fuel-mix shifts, say, from biomass to more efficient electricity. In turn, output can grow more quickly than demand for energy services because of sectoral shifts—say, from energy-intensive industrial sectors to services—or from an increasing share of growth taken by non-energy-intensive, high value-added activities within a sector (e.g., increasing share of investment banking versus retail banking).

By being explicit about the relative importance of each, energy productivity acts as a useful tool to enable us better to understand the nature and source of change and more effectively seek to improve growth and energy outcomes.

Postagem em destaque

Livro Marxismo e Socialismo finalmente disponível - Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Meu mais recente livro – que não tem nada a ver com o governo atual ou com sua diplomacia esquizofrênica, já vou logo avisando – ficou final...