segunda-feira, 17 de junho de 2019

China: o massacre de 1989, revelado em novos documentos publicados em Hong Kong - NYRBooks

China’s ‘Black Week-end’

The Last Secret: The Final Documents from the June Fourth Crackdown

edited by Bao Pu
Hong Kong: New Century Press, 362 pp., HK$158.00

By Ian Johnson
The New York Review of Books, June 27, 2019
Kao Bian/New Century Media and Consulting, Co. Ltd.
Demonstrators and troops during the Tiananmen Square protests, Beijing, June 1989
When Chinese law professor Xu Zhangrun began publishing articles last year criticizing the government’s turn toward a harsher variety of authoritarianism, it seemed inevitable that he would be swiftly silenced. Sure enough, Xu was suspended from his teaching duties at Tsinghua University and placed under investigation. But then, remarkably, dozens of prominent citizens began speaking up. Some signed a petition, others wrote essays and poems in Xu’s support, and one wrote a song:
And, so this spring
Again they are scared.1
To anyone familiar with Chinese politics, the reference was clear: the anniversary of the June 4, 1989, crackdown on the Tiananmen protests. The Communist Party’s use of violence to end those peaceful demonstrations left hundreds dead and remains one of the ugliest events in the history of the People’s Republic.
The thirtieth Tiananmen anniversary is complemented by several other important dates, making 2019 the most sensitive year in a generation. It is also the one hundredth anniversary of the May 4 Movement, a defining moment in Chinese history when traditions were cast aside in favor of a sometimes romantic pursuit of “science” and “democracy.” And it is the seventieth anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic as well as the twentieth of the crackdown on one of modern China’s most popular religious movements, Falun Gong, in which scores of people were killed in police custody and thousands sent to labor camps. Anyone with any political sense knows that this convergence of dates makes 2019 the year to keep quiet. And yet people continue to speak up. Why?
For authoritarian regimes like China’s, history is power, because their political systems are legitimized through myths. In the case of the People’s Republic, the story goes that earlier efforts to modernize China were failures and that only the Chinese Communist Party was able to bullwhip the country into the future. This is the history that every child learns in textbooks, that museums serve up in exhibitions, and that the media push in countless television dramas, news reports, and popular books. The problem for the government is that historical truth is hard to suppress. The authoritarian state can prevent it from becoming an immediate threat and can eliminate it from the lives of most citizens, but the truth stubbornly endures, inspiring people like Professor Xu and his supporters.
The most recent example of history’s persistence is the publication in Hong Kong of The Last Secret: The Final Documents from the June Fourth Crackdown. It is the record of a meeting of roughly thirty party elders and senior leaders that took place two weeks after the massacre. Officially known as the Fourth Plenum of the Thirteenth Party Congress, it was called by China’s top leader, Deng Xiaoping, to force other party leaders to retroactively endorse his decision to use force on the protesters and to fire the Communist Party’s general secretary, Zhao Ziyang, who had opposed using the military to stop the demonstrations. The officials’ statements of fealty were read out loud and then printed up and distributed at another meeting a few days later for nearly five hundred party officials to “study”—in other words, to internalize as the truthful version of events. At the end of that meeting, the documents, all stamped “top secret,” were collected in order to maintain their secrecy.
Now, three decades later, one copy has surfaced in Hong Kong and has been published by New Century Press, whose publisher, Bao Pu, has made it his calling to explain the inner workings of the party. Over the past fourteen years he has published several important works on Chinese politics, including Zhao’s secret memoirs and the diaries of then premier Li Peng, who stepped in when Zhao refused to endorse force.2
The book is called The Last Secretbecause it was the party’s last word on the events of 1989: a newspeak version of what had happened that all officials, high or low, had to make their own, regardless of what they personally believed or had witnessed. It is also a “last secret” in that it shows how the party, in the end, is designed to operate: as a one-man dictatorship, which requires obedience achieved by periodic purges and oath-style promises from survivors to follow the boss’s version of reality. Ultimately, this book is a case study in how the party has managed to keep itself in power, and how the current leadership functions.
That’s not the usual focus of books on Tiananmen. In a preface to The Last Secret, a writer using the pen name Wu Yulun says that most of our histories of Tiananmen emphasize the dramatic photos and accounts of the freewheeling demonstrations, which for fifty-one days turned the enormous square into an oasis of free speech. Or they emphasize the details of the massacre: where the troops staged their assault and how many people were killed. But Wu writes that equally important is what happened in the weeks that followed:
As we look back, it is also important to peek through the iron curtain at the powerful forces behind the scenes. Only then can we hope to understand how the dreams, hopes and lives of millions of people were suddenly changed.
The Last Secret is divided into two parts. The first is nearly fifty pages of English-language analysis, including Wu’s essay and an introduction by the Columbia University professor Andrew J. Nathan, who lucidly explains the crucial points of the leaders’ statements.3The second part reprints them in full, in Chinese. (The book also includes several previously unpublished photos of events before and after the massacre.)
Tellingly, no one stood up for Zhao. Even his supporters begged for forgiveness and heaped blame on their former boss. One, Hu Qili, was a member of the Politburo Standing Committee—the five-person body that with Deng’s blessing ran China’s day-to-day affairs. Hu acknowledged that he had sided with Zhao in opposing martial law because he worried that bringing troops into a city with large-scale demonstrations would lead to disaster. Essentially, that was the right call, but Hu couldn’t say that. Instead, he said:
Now, by studying Comrade [Deng] Xiaoping’s important talk of June 9 and comparing it to my thinking at the time of the events, I deeply realize how inadequate was my comprehension of the truth…. This shows that my political level is low, that my thinking was not clear in the face of great issues of right and wrong affecting the Party’s and the state’s future and fate, and that I did not withstand the test.
Hu never regained the rank he once had, but his self-abasement guaranteed him appointments in the 1990s as a minister and several ceremonial positions, not to mention the generous benefits enjoyed by all retired leaders and their families.
Most of the statements were by hard-liners who—significantly for a meeting that was supposed to emphasize harmony—used the opportunity to vent about the reform process in general. Former president Li Xiannian, who was about to turn eighty when he delivered his speech, was one of several who opposed Zhao’s efforts to reform state-owned enterprises and promote private business—hallmarks of the early years of reforms and a major reason for China’s economic takeoff. Others, such as the eighty-one-year-old former general Wang Zhen, thought Zhao wasn’t ideologically tough enough and was leading China to convergence with the West.
These and other statements reveal the turmoil that Deng’s reforms unleashed and help explain Zhao’s downfall. On one hand, Deng wanted Zhao to carry out reforms, but Zhao was also being watched suspiciously by Deng’s more conservative opponents. On the other hand, Zhao’s downfall shows how uneasy the party is with the social effects of economic reforms—a problem that remains today, as Xi Jinping promotes old-style Communist ideals. As Nathan puts it:
The more China pursues power and prosperity through technological modernization and engagement with the global economy, the more unwilling are students, intellectuals, and the rising middle class to adhere to a 1950s-style ideological conformity.
The statements show how the party enforces ideological conformity after a crisis. First, a scapegoat is found—in this case Zhao—and then everyone must acknowledge and bewail their manifold sins, show that they most earnestly repent, and, trusting in the party’s great mercy, throw themselves at the leadership’s feet. It’s basically an embarrassing exercise in bootlicking, which helps explain why these documents were classified as top secret.
Events like this show that these sorts of purges and groveling sessions are essential in a system with no real rules or internal democracy. Instead, the decisions of those in charge determine how the party is run. If the decisions change in some way, then everyone must prove that they will toe the new line.
The documents demonstrate the inherent instability of this crude system of power transfer and control. When Mao Zedong began to embrace increasingly radical policies starting in the late 1950s, many of his highest-ranking lieutenants suddenly found themselves on the wrong side of his favor and were jettisoned or even killed. But then those who replaced them—especially his wife Jiang Qing and a small group around her who were dubbed the Gang of Four—were themselves turned into scapegoats, arrested, and jailed after Mao’s death in 1976.
A decade later, when Deng in 1987 lost confidence in the liberal, reforming party secretary Hu Yaobang, the process repeated itself. Hu had to confess his sins and resign at a major party conference. Just two years after that it was Zhao’s turn to resign and for leaders to blame him.
A crucial lesson is that the system requires a strong leader. In the 1980s Deng was one, but he chose to rule indirectly, through intermediaries like Zhao. This allowed him to discard lieutenants when things went wrong but ultimately hurt the party because it made a mockery of its own processes—Hu and Zhao had done nothing wrong and were not deposed according to any sort of party rules, but simply because Deng faced problems. It was also part of the reason for the Tiananmen protests, which began shortly after Hu’s death in April 1989. Many people mourned him precisely because they felt he had been poorly treated by Deng two years earlier.
Senior leaders at the June 1989 meeting understood the problem. The eighty-one-year-old military and political leader Bo Yibo warned that the party would need to get behind one strong leader—a “core,” or hexin in Chinese—who commanded respect and could take firm control of the government. “In my view, history will not allow us to go through [a leadership purge] again,” Bo said.
Deng also realized that the system he had created was faulty. He quickly handed over power to Jiang Zemin and got rid of the informal body of elders who had second-guessed Zhao for much of the 1980s. But until his death in 1997, Deng still hovered in the background. Jiang’s successor from 2002 to 2012, Hu Jintao, was likewise relatively weak. Jiang and Hu each served two terms, which was prematurely declared to be proof that the regime had institutionalized power transfers. In hindsight, this seems more like an interregnum that occurred because the party lacked a “core”—only Xi was able to assume this mantle after he took power in 2012. Not surprisingly, two of Xi’s signature policies have been to conduct a purge of top officials (in the guise of an anticorruption campaign) and to abolish term limits.
One of the strange phenomena of modern academia and journalism is that they sometimes fail to publish the obvious. In this case that would be a readable, accessible, and complete account of the June 4 massacre. Many worthwhile journalistic accounts appeared shortly after the event,4 but they are now at least twenty years out of date, and thus weren’t able to take into account the flood of memoirs and secret documents that have come out since then. These include The Tiananmen Papers (a collection of internal party documents recounting the events), Zhao’s memoirs, Li Peng’s diaries, and works by former Chinese political advisers Wu Wei and Wu Guoguang.
This makes Wu Yulun’s essay in The Last Secret of great value. It synthesizes much of this new material in trying to answer a basic question, encapsulated in the title of his essay: “How the Party Decided to Shoot Its People.” Like others, Wu argues that the massacre was the result of a series of mishaps that caused a manageable situation to spiral out of control. But Wu also makes a strong case that Deng favored some sort of forceful action from the start: this wasn’t an accident but an act of conviction.
When the protests started after Hu’s death, Deng initially yielded to Zhao, whom he had supported and promoted for over a decade. Zhao realized it would be wrong to crack down on people mourning a former general secretary of the Communist Party, and so he counseled negotiation. But Deng seems to have lost patience as the protests continued. He was able to push his less tolerant approach after April 23, when Zhao went to North Korea on a week-long state visit. Zhao left explicit instructions with Premier Li Peng to follow his moderate course. According to Li’s diary, which Wu cites to great effect, Li agreed, but he also wrote that another senior leader “encouraged” him to meet Deng.
Whether Li met Deng is unclear, but he seemed to have realized that Deng wanted a harder line. Li’s diary confirms that on April 24 he convened a meeting of leaders, making sure to exclude one of Zhao’s trusted lieutenants. The leaders ordered the party’s mouthpiece, People’s Daily, to issue a strongly worded editorial on April 26 condemning the protests as “turmoil.”
Famously, the editorial backfired, and the next day more than 500,000 people surged into the square—as Wu Yulun puts it, this was “an unprecedented event in the history of the People’s Republic of China. For the first time in the Communist Party’s reign, people willfully took action against the wishes of the paramount leader.” Zhao records in his memoirs that when he returned to Beijing on April 30, Deng refused to see him—clearly he felt that Zhao had been following the wrong course. On May 2, Hong Kong’s Ming Pao newspaper, then a very reliable source of information on mainland politics, reported that Zhao was on his way out.
What probably prevented Deng from taking immediate action was Russian leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s imminent arrival in Beijing to repair the thirty-year rift between the two Communist giants. This was Deng’s chance to cement his place in history, so he waited until the meeting with Gorbachev took place, and in the intervening two weeks the protests grew even larger. The day after Gorbachev left for Shanghai on May 16, Deng convened a meeting that authorized the use of force. Then it was only a matter of time before troops were deployed.
Reading these essays and documents, one is struck by the fragility of the party’s grip on power. In 1989 public opinion had soured because of inflation, corruption, and stagnating living standards—and the party itself was divided among reformers and hard-liners. Ultimately, it was this confluence of events that led to the massacre. For China’s Communist Party, relaxing its grip on power means losing it.
Hoover Institution Archives
A page from the June 4, 1989, entry in the diary of Li Rui, one of Mao’s personal secretaries, with the heading ‘Black Week-end’
In April the Hoover Institution Library and Archives at Stanford University hosted a conference on the life and times of Li Rui, one of the most storied personalities in the history of the People’s Republic. Li was an early member of the Communist Party and for a short while one of Mao’s personal secretaries, making him a gatekeeper to the man who ran the country like an emperor.
But after crossing Mao and his allies, Li ended up spending nearly twenty years in prisons or in exile. After his release in 1978, he served in a few government posts but mainly took up historical writing. He wrote an account of the Lushan Conference in 1959, at which Mao purged dissidents and doubled down on the disastrous economic policies surrounding what became one of the worst famines in history. Li also helped found China Through the Ages, a journal that took on sensitive topics from the party’s history.
Over the past few years, Li and his daughter, Li Nanyang, have been moving his personal papers and photos to the Hoover archives. Ms. Li took a position there to organize and transcribe the material, including years’ worth of diaries. Li died this past February, aged 101, and the conference was meant to assess his life and announce that the material would soon be made available to the public.
The steady flow of unofficial accounts of the past is another way that historical truth escapes the party’s clutches. Li’s account of the Lushan Conference is part of a trend toward understanding Mao’s responsibility for the famine. The official line is that the famine was caused by natural disasters or by the split with the Soviet Union that occurred around that time. But thanks to Li and other Chinese and foreign scholars, it is impossible for any serious scholar, even inside China, to accept the government’s version. Li’s archives will likely add to the body of evidence against Mao because they contain his personal journal of the Lushan meeting.
So will Li’s account of June 4, 1989. He lived in a building reserved for high-ranking cadres near the Muxidi intersection in western Beijing. It was there that the several armored units began their assault on the city and there that hundreds of ordinary Beijingers assembled to stop their progress toward the students in the square—acts of courage described by the writer Liao Yiwu in his moving book, Bullets and Opium: Real-Life Stories of China After the Tiananmen Square Massacre.5 Liao spent seven years assembling a memorable series of portraits of the working-class people who defended Tiananmen Square and took the brunt of the casualties.
Li’s perspective is simpler because he witnessed the massacre unfold from his balcony. But coming from a high-ranking party member, someone who had a reputation for being upright and uncompromising, it is damning. His diary entry for June 4 begins with two English words, “Black week-end.” It then goes on to describe how soldiers shot indiscriminately, including into his building, killing a neighbor. Then he recounts phone calls with outraged party members and the opinion of a friend and former general, Xiao Ke, who had written Deng weeks earlier warning of the disastrous consequences of deploying the army in the capital:
Han Xiong’s call was deeply dejecting. What has the party been reduced to? When I hung up, my tears could not stop flowing. An Zhiwen called to ask about the situation; he sighed and wondered how it could be the party [that did this]!
The whole day I felt restless and constantly wanted to wail. Xiao Ke predicted: [the party will be] condemned through the ages and [this event] will go down in history as a byword for infamy.
How long does it take for history to effect change? Writing in the 1980s, after the famines, political witch-hunts, and turmoil of the party’s first thirty years in power, the Belgian sinologist Simon Leys compared its rule “to the aimless drift of a dead dog; only its belly, swollen with the windy promises of the ‘Four Modernizations,’ still keeps it vaguely afloat.” Leys was right that the party’s embrace of economic development—subsumed under the slogan the “Four Modernizations”—was keeping it afloat. In the intervening four decades, the party’s embrace of economic development has been wildly successful, so much so that it’s become possible to think of the party’s rule as inevitable and eternal.
But Leys was no idealist in seeing the party as already dead. When he wrote those words—in his collection of essays The Burning Forest (1985)—he knew very well that the party’s corpse wouldn’t sink immediately. He pointed to the experiences of the French Catholic priest Évariste Régis Huc, who traveled widely through China in the 1840s, following the Qing dynasty’s defeat in the First Opium War of 1839–1842. Even though the Qing would not fall until 1911, Huc knew that it was finished. “Yet it took another seventy years for the old empire actually to collapse,” Leys wrote. “When operating on the scale of China, history adopts another rhythm.”
  1. 1
    This story was supported by the Pulitzer Center. Thanks to Geremie Barmé for his dedication in collecting, promoting, and translating works about Xu’s case on the China Heritage website. 
  2. 2
    For more on Bao Pu, see my “‘My Personal Vendetta’: An Interview with Hong Kong Publisher Bao Pu,”NYR Daily, January 22, 2016. On Zhao’s memoirs, see Jonathan Mirsky, “China’s Dictators at Work: The Secret Story,” The New York Review, July 2, 2009. Li Peng’s diaries were withdrawn from publication due to political pressure but are available online. 
  3. 3
    An adaptation of Nathan’s introduction is available on the Foreign Affairs website. 
  4. 4
    See, for example, Michael Fathers and Andrew Higgins, Tiananmen: The Rape of Peking (Doubleday, 1989), or sections in broader books such as Nicholas D. Kristof and Sheryl WuDunn, China Wakes: The Struggle for the Soul of a Rising Power (Random House, 1994), and Orville Schell, Mandate of Heaven(Simon and Schuster, 1994). 
  5. 5
    Berlin: Fischer, 2012. An English translation, to which I contributed the introduction, has just been published by Atria. 

Olavo, o pedagogo estatal (por 400 mil reais ao mes): projeto dos Bolsokids

NOTÍCIAS  POLÍTICA 
Santos Cruz rejeitou projeto de R$ 400 mil para programa de Olavo de Carvalho na EBC e TV Escola
Demitido nesta semana, Santos Cruz sofria pressão cada vez maior da ala olavista, capitaneada por Carlos Bolsonaro, para aprovar o projeto para divulgação da doutrina do guru na comunicação oficial do governo
POR: REDAÇÃO @REVISTAFORUM
15/06/2019 07:50

Demitido por Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) na última quinta-feira (13), o ex-ministro da secretaria de Governo, general Carlos Alberto Santos Cruz, rejeitou por duas vezes um projeto para que o guru da família do presidente, Olavo de Carvalho, tivesse um programa de TV para ser veiculado na EBC, TV Escola e em plataformas digitais do governo. As informações são do site A República.
Segundo a reportagem, Santos Cruz sofria pressão cada vez maior da ala olavista, capitaneada pelo vereador Carlos Bolsonaro (PSC/RJ), para aprovar o projeto para divulgação da doutrina do guru na comunicação oficial do governo.
Na primeira reunião de Cruz com Fábio Wajngarten, secretário de Comunicação da Presidência (Secom), próximo de Carlos Bolsonaro, apresentou ao ministro o projeto de pagar 320 mil reais por mês ao astrólogo, que foi rejeitado.
O projeto foi apresentado uma segunda vez, desta vez pagando R$ 400 mil a Olavo. Novamente foi rejeitado por Santos Cruz.

“Bosta engomada”
Antes de ser demitido, Santos Cruz sofreu um processo de fritura no cargo que durou mais de um mês, sendo alvo de ataques constantes nas redes sociais de Carlos Bolsonaro e do próprio Olavo, que chegou a chamar o general de “bosta engomada”.
Acusado por Olavo de Carvalho de “tráfico de influência”, Santos Cruz virou alvo da milícia digital capitaneada por Carlos – e que vem sendo usado como estratégia por Jair Bolsonaro para enfraquecer aliados com certo poder de fogo no governo.
No último domingo (9) Carlos escreveu no Twitter: “Aonde (sic) estão os ‘super generais’ para defender o presidente de mais um ataque”, referindo-se à resistência para a aprovação do projeto que abria crédito extra de R$ 248 bilhões para o governo.


Churchill: o maior estadista do século XX, talvez de todas as épocas - Joao Carlos Espada

De Londres a Hong Kong (via Hillsdale College, USA)

Na passada sexta-feira, em Londres, teve lugar um jantar Churchilliano, com vários traços peculiares que talvez mereçam a nossa atenção.
Celebrava-se a publicação dos volumes finais (23 e 24) da longa biografia, seguida de correspondência e documentos, de Winston Churchill. O empreendimento fora iniciado ainda na década de 1960 por Randolph, filho de Winston, e pouco depois prosseguido por Martin Gilbert (que fora Assistente de Randolph nos volumes iniciais) e agora completado por Larry Arnn (um americano que fora Assistente de Martin Gilbert em Oxford, e que preside hoje ao norte-americano Hillsdale College).
Um primeiro traço peculiar deste encontro, sobretudo de um ponto de vista europeu continental, é que todo este gigantesco empreendimento de várias décadas não foi suportado por subsídios estatais. Tudo decorreu com base em apoios privados da sociedade civil — de indivíduos, famílias, empresas, colégios e associações voluntárias. No entanto, trata-se de uma obra que diz respeito ao maior estadista britânico do século XX. Sintomaticamente, não havia no jantar qualquer representante oficial do que no continente chamamos “Estado” britânico.
Um segundo traço peculiar deste encontro residiu no facto de a maior parte dos participantes ser americana. Havia certamente distintos participantes britânicos — desde logo Randolph Churchill e Celia Sandys, (bisneto e neta de Winston), bem como vários membros da Câmara dos Lordes, e outros distintos Churchillianos britânicos. Mas os americanos estavam claramente em esmagadora maioria entre os cerca de 300 participantes.
Um terceiro traço peculiar residiu na atmosfera profundamente comovente e comovida do jantar. As intervenções foram comovidas — e havia lágrimas nos olhos de vários intervenientes, bem como na assistência. Foi uma inesquecível demonstração da “relação especial” anglo-americana que Winston Churchill sempre defendeu.
Não deve ser evitada a questão crucial que emerge dessas três peculiaridades: por que motivo estiveram centenas de americanos (e algumas dezenas de britânicos) a celebrar em Londres a memória de um líder britânico (ainda que sua mãe tivesse sido americana), sem qualquer apoio estatal e num ambiente de grande comoção? Estavam comovidos acerca de quê?
Talvez a melhor resposta possa ser vislumbrada através das fotos das gigantescas manifestações que tiveram lugar em Hong Kong, também na semana passada. Desafiando a violência policial e o gaz lacrimogéneo, cerca de um milhão de cidadãos de Hong Kong desceram à rua em dias sucessivos. Protestavam contra uma “lei” recente que permite a extradição de cidadãos de Hong Kong para serem “julgados” na China continental comunista. Qual foi o maior símbolo desfraldado nas ruas pelos manifestantes que desafiavam a ditadura comunista? A bandeira britânica.
Por que motivo desfraldaram os habitantes de Hong Kong a bandeira de um país que não é o seu (e que, segundo a ortodoxia politicamente correcta, foi mesmo um ‘ocupante colonial’)? Por que motivo celebraram centenas de americanos em Londres a memória de Winston Churchill, que não era um estadista americano?
Não tenho dificuldade em sugerir uma resposta a estas perguntas cruciais. Fui ensinado a respeitar a bandeira britânica sempre por não britânicos: as minhas avós e os meus pais, orgulhosos cidadãos portugueses, em primeiro lugar; pelo austríaco Karl Popper, a seguir; e, finalmente, pelo alemão Ralf Dahrendorf. Também por isso mesmo, não fiquei surpreendido — embora tenha ficado comovido — pelo jantar de homenagem a Winston Churchill promovido em Londres na passada sexta-feira pelo norte-americano Hillsdale College. E também não fiquei surpreendido — embora tenha ficado comovido — ao ver a bandeira britânica desfradada pelos corajosos manifestantes em Hong Kong.
Tudo isto é certamente incompreensível pela actual atmosfera intelectual, dominada pelo vazio moral pós-moderno e pós-cristão, de que resulta o culto e a obediência ao poder do (que parece) mais forte. Mas, como recordou incansavelmente Winston Churchill, o poder sem fundamento na justiça e na lei é apenas o poder arbitrário — e por isso não merece obediência. Disse Churchill em 1938, ainda antes do início da II Guerra e da aliança nazi-comunista que lhe deu origem:
“Não temos nós uma ideologia própria — se tivermos de usar essa palavra horrível [ideologia] — não temos nós uma ‘ideologia’ própria, fundada na liberdade, numa Constituição liberal, num Governo parlamentar e democrático, na Magna Carta e na Petição de Direitos?”

===============

Uma palavra final (PRA): 
Se não fosse por Winston Churchill, a Europa, toda a Europa, da península ibérica aos Urais, teria sido reduzida à escravidão nazista provavelmente por um prazo superior a 30 anos. Esse é um chute meu, obviamente, mas um chute baseado nos acasos da guerra entre 1940 e 1942, depois que a França tombou sob o jugo nazista, e antes que a ofensiva nazista fosse interrompida em Stalingrado. Churchill precisou, é claro, do apoio de Roosevelt, caso contrário a Grã-Bretanha não teria resistido, mas ela sequer teria lutado se não  fosse pela vontade inquebrantável de Churchill de lutar até o fim.
Sim, Churchill salvou não só o Ocidente, mas o mundo inteiro da escravidão nazista. Devemos isso a ele. Nunca seremos suficientemente gratos...

domingo, 16 de junho de 2019

Editorial do Washington Post sobre as relações EUA-China

Um editorial de um grande jornal, como o Washington Post, representa algo sério, de significado nacional, ou estratégico.
Não sei se é o caso de "relações EUA-China", ou apenas "Trump-China"", o que tem outra dimensão.
Mas vale ler, pois pode estar transmitindo as posições de gente mais sensata de Washington, como o establishment militar, por exemplo (ainda assim, extremamente paranoico, como compete ao Pentágono).
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

The grave consequences of a U.S.-China schism

THE UNITED STATES and China are at a hinge point in the most important bilateral relationship of the 21st century. What started last year as a trade dispute, one that just last month seemed close to settlement, threatens to escalate into a new Cold War with potentially devastating consequences for both countries — and the world. Now substantially integrated, the two largest economies could unwind from each other; a technological schism could create separate platforms for communications and other high-tech systems. Flows of students and scientists and venture capital could dry up. Cooperation on strategic problems of mutual interest, such as North Korea and climate change, could cease. And countries from Southeast Asia to Latin America could be forced to pick sides.
This is an outcome that both the Trump administration and the Chinese regime of Xi Jinping should be seeking to avoid. Instead, both appear to be pursuing policies that make it more likely. In the case of the Trump administration, the slide toward confrontation is being driven by reckless and sometimes senseless measures ungoverned by a coherent strategy.
To be sure, there is a consensus in Washington that policy toward China needs to change from that of recent decades. Successive U.S. presidents bet that growing trade and investment between the two countries and steady diplomatic engagement could coax the Communist Party regime into becoming a responsible global player that respected the U.S.-backed international order and gradually became more free at home. Mr. Xi’s regime has shattered that hopeful vision.
It is not just that this Chinese ruler has concentrated personal power and shut down all hints of pluralism in the political system. His regime is pioneering a new, high-tech form of totalitarianism, in which human lives will be controlled by omniscient databases and ubiquitous surveillance systems — and it is offering this as a model of governance for the rest of the world. China would foster societies where the Internet is a tool for state power rather than personal freedom. Its technology companies are already marketing the systems that have enabled a vast gulag of concentration camps in the Xinjiang region to authoritarian regimes in Africa.
Mr. Xi is flouting international law and treaties in the South China Sea, where the Chinese military is building a string of bases aimed at establishing Beijing’s hegemony over vital shipping lanes. A Chinese arms buildup appears designed to enable the subjugation of Taiwan and the expulsion of U.S. forces from the Western Pacific. Meanwhile, Beijing is still seeking unfair advantage for Chinese companies by trying to force multilateral firms to hand over their technology in exchange for access to its market. Promises by Mr. Xi to cease the stealing of technology through cyberoperations have been brazenly violated.
The United States has little choice but to push back against these aggressions and Mr. Xi’s disturbing ideological model. But the Trump administration has gone about it in the wrong way. It has largely ignored the most reprehensible and dangerous Chinese behavior, including its genocidal campaign in Xinjiangand takeover of the South China Sea, while launching a tariff war in pursuit of an improvised and shifting mix of economic concessions. President Trump wants to force a reduction in the U.S.-China trade deficit, a pointless goal that reflects his ignorance of basic economics. While some of his advisers seek an end to unfair Chinese treatment of U.S. companies, others appear bent on blocking China’s attempt to develop high-tech industries or destroying the ones it has.
A turning point came last month after Mr. Xi abruptly retreated from a tentative agreement resolving the trade dispute. Mr. Trump reacted not just by moving to expand tariffs on Chinese goods but also by restricting sales by U.S. companies to Huawei, China’s telecommunications champion. There are legitimate concerns about Huawei’s connections to the Chinese government, and a good argument for excluding its products from sensitive communications networks in the United States and its allies — though U.S. agencies have yet to back up their warnings with clear evidence. But Mr. Trump’s measure threatens to destroy the company, or else force it to develop its own versions of chips and operating systems it now obtains from the West. If the ban is fully enacted and China retaliates against U.S. tech companies, as it has threatened to do, the decoupling of the two countries’ tech supply chains, as well as other parts of their economies, could begin in earnest.
That would be a bad outcome for both Americans and Chinese. It would make both countries poorer while sharply raising the odds that they will slide toward a larger conflict. Competition between the United States and China should not become a zero-sum game, as it was with the Soviet Union. Rather, the United States should seek to maintain flows of trade, investment, people and expertise between the two economies, while working patiently to establish fairer and more equitable terms for that interchange. Where it should be uncompromising is in challenging China’s military expansionism and its attempt to create and export technologies of repression. A productive economic relationship would provide leverage and make it more likely that China’s malign regional and global ambitions can be contained.
To pursue those policies, the United States needs its allies. Many nations in Europe and Asia share Washington’s concerns about the Xi regime. Yet Mr. Trump has pursued his trade war with Beijing unilaterally, while threatening to launch new tariff attacks against key partners, such as Japan and Germany. He walked away from what could have been one of the most powerful tools to contain Beijing, the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Mr. Trump’s tactics have failed to accomplish even his narrowest economic aims. Now he risks triggering a larger conflict whose dimensions and potential consequences ought to alarm Americans who hope for a peaceful and prosperous 21st century.

Seminário sobre o globalismo no “novo” Itamaraty: vídeos disponíveis

Nunca antes na história do Itamaraty — cuja história institucional se aproxima de 200 anos de exercício funcional de uma diplomacia profissional — tantas pessoas (inclusive o corpo diplomático estrangeiro, que compareceu em representação muito reduzida, além dos próprios alunos do Instituto Rio Branco, presença compulsória e público cativo) tiveram de suportar tão poucas pessoas se manifestando de forma tão canhestramente vazia sobre tão poucos conceitos desprovidos de qualquer consistência real, como os de globalismo ou de poder global, transformados em monstros metafísicos de uma política externa totalmente equivocada quando voltada contra esses moinhos de vento de mentes destrambelhadas, que se encontram circunstancialmente no domínio temporário do poder.
Nunca antes na história do Itamaraty tamanha vacuidade de ideias ocupou tanto espaço em torno do nada.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Brasília, 16 de junho de 2019

Itamaraty e FUNAG realizaram seminário sobre o globalismo
O ministro de Estado das Relações Exteriores, embaixador Ernesto Araújo, proferiu a palestra de abertura do seminário “Globalismo”, promovido pelo Ministério das Relações Exteriores (MRE) e a Fundação Alexandre de Gusmão (FUNAG) no dia 10 de junho.
O seminário promoveu debate entre membros do governo e da sociedade sobre o conceito e o fenômeno do globalismo e suas implicações para as relações internacionais contemporâneas. O tema tem sido discutido em outros países, como os Estados Unidos, e há interesse público em trazer tal discussão para o Brasil, a fim de entender suas implicações para as relações internacionais dos nossos dias. Esse interesse pôde ser verificado nas mais de 400 inscrições para o evento e no grande número de perguntas aos palestrantes.
Estiveram presentes no evento, além do ministro das Relações Exteriores, a deputada Christine Nogueira dos Reis Tonietto (PSL/RJ); o assessor especial para Assuntos Internacionais do presidente da República, Filipe G. Martins; a secretária de Comunicação e Cultura do MRE, embaixadora Márcia Donner Abreu; a diretora do Instituto de Pesquisa de Relações Internacionais (IPRI), embaixadora Maria Stela Pompeu Brasil Frota; o presidente da FUNAG, ministro Roberto Goidanich; e os palestrantes: Ludmila Lins Grilo, juíza de Direito do TJMG; Christopher Buskirk, editor da revista American Greatness; Alexandre Costa, autor dos livros “Introdução à Nova Ordem Mundial” e “O Brasil e a Nova Ordem Mundial”; e Flávio Morgenstern, escritor, analista político e editor do site “Senso incomum – pensando contra a corrente”.

Assista ao vídeo da palestra de aberturaproferida pelo ministro de Estado das Relações Exteriores, embaixador Ernesto Araújo.
Assista ao vídeo da palestra "Globalismo: teoria da conspiração ou fenômeno político observável?", proferida pelo assessor especial para Assuntos Internacionais do presidente da República, Filipe G. Martins.
Assista ao vídeo da palestra "Educação globalista e a proposta de secundarizar as instituições”, proferida pela deputada federal Christine Nogueira dos Reis Tonietto (PSL/RJ).
Assista ao vídeo da palestra "O ativismo judicial a serviço do globalismo”, proferida pela juíza de Direito do TJMG Ludmila Lins Grilo.
Assista ao vídeo da palestra "How globalism threatens national sovereignty, self-determination, and individual liberty", proferida por Christopher Buskirk, editor da revista American Greatness.
Assista ao vídeo da palestra "A evolução da globalismo", proferida por Alexandre Costa, autor dos livros Introdução à Nova Ordem Mundial e O Brasil e a Nova Ordem Mundial.
Assista ao vídeo da palestra "Democracia, povo e representatividade na era do globalismo", proferida por Flávio Morgenstern, escritor, analista político e editor do site Senso incomum – pensando contra a corrente.
Assista ao vídeo dos debates.

Fotos: Ricardo Padue.
Para mais fotos do evento, acesse o nosso Flickr.

Bibliografia sugerida pelo professor Filipe G. Martins, assessor especial para Assuntos Internacionais do presidente da República:
Yuval Noah Harari - Homo Sapiens
Yuval Noah Harari - Homo Deus
Yuval Noah Harari - 21 Lições para o Século 21
Todd Huizinga - The New Totalitarian Temptation: Global Governance and the Crisis of Democracy in Europe
John Fonte - Sovereignty or Submission: Will Americans Rule Themselves or Be Ruled by Others
Derek Heater - World Citizenship and Government: Cosmopolitan Ideas in the History of Western Political Thought. New York: St. Martin's Press.
James A. Yunker - The Idea of World Government: From Ancient Times to the Twenty-First Century. London and New York: Routledge Global Institutions Series, 2011.
Strobe Talbott - The Great Experiment: The Story of Ancient Empires, Modern States, and the Quest for a Global Nation
Marc. F. Plattner - Democracy Without Borders? - Global Challenges to Liberal Democracy
Manfred B. Steger - The rise of the global imaginary: political ideologies from the French Revolution to the global war on terror, Oxford University Press, 2008.
Manfred B. Steger - Globalisms: The Great Ideological Struggle of the Twenty-first Century
Paul James and Manfred B. Steger - Ideologies of globalism, Sage, 2010
Paul James - Globalism, Nationalism, Tribalism: Bringing Theory Back In — Volume 2 of Towards a Theory of Abstract Community. London: Sage Publications.
Dani Rodrik - How Far Will Economic Integration Go? Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 (1): 177-86.
David Mitrany - The progress of international government. London: G. Allen & Unwin. OCLC 4701730.
Alexander Wendt - Why a World Government is Inevitable?
Olavo de Carvalho - O Jardim das Aflições
Antonio Negri e David Hardt - Império
Pascal Bernardin - Maquiavel Pedagogo
Yoram Hazony - The Virtue of Nationalism

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