Nenhuma situação em melhoria, apenas deterioração (algumas graves e arriscadas, como o problema nuclear da Coréia do Norte) e estabilização na crise...
New CrisisWatch bulletin from the International Crisis Group
CrisisWatch N°70, 1 June 2009
Nine actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and none improved in May 2009, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch, released today.
Somalia’s capital was rocked by intense fighting as an alliance of anti-government Islamist factions led by influential Islamist cleric Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys launched a large-scale offensive in and around Mogadishu. Close to 200 civilians were killed, hundreds wounded and over 46,000 displaced by heavy shelling into residential areas. The effects of severe drought have compounded fears for a further deterioration in security and humanitarian conditions in June.
Conditions for civilians in Pakistan also deteriorated considerably over May, as the army offensive against the Taliban continued in the north west. The total number of displaced has reportedly reached over 2.4 million since the operation’s launch in late April, prompting UN calls for “urgent and massive” humanitarian assistance on the ground.
Tensions between Chad and neighbouring Sudan escalated sharply, as an early month agreement to cease hostilities quickly unravelled following a fresh assault in Chad’s volatile east by Chadian rebels operating from bases across the border in Darfur. Retaliatory air strikes by Chadian forces on Sudanese soil have since prompted vehement accusations of military aggression between capitals and threats of further action. The situation in Nigeria also deteriorated, as the government launched a major ground, air and naval offensive against militia groups in the restive Niger Delta. Dozens of civilians have reportedly been killed and thousands displaced since mid-May, amid reports of government efforts to restrict humanitarian access.
In North Korea, Pyongyang’s 25 May announcement of the completion of an underground nuclear test prompted widespread condemnation over its brazen contravention of UN Security Council Resolution 1718 and fears for the further escalation of regional tensions. The situations in Guatemala, Myanmar/Burma and Niger also saw significant deteriorations in May.
May 2009 TRENDS
Deteriorated Situations
Chad, Guatemala, Myanmar/Burma, North Korea, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan
Improved Situations
-
Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia/Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chechnya, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mauritania, Morocco, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland, Philippines, Rwanda, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Togo, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Yem en, Zimbabwe
June 2009 OUTLOOK
Conflict Risk Alert
Somalia
Conflict Resolution Opportunity
-
*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.
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