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Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida

Mostrando postagens com marcador China-US. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador China-US. Mostrar todas as postagens

segunda-feira, 16 de setembro de 2019

Otaviano Canuto on US-China trade war and its impact on Latin America

Latin America Is Not Benefiting from the U.S.-China Trade War

Otaviano Canuto
Center for Macroeconomics and Development, September 16, 2019

Has the U.S. trade war with China been good for Latin America?
An increase in Chinese demand for primary products from the region, as well as recent news of production transfers from China to Mexico, might give the impression that it has.
But any positive short-term effects of the confrontation should also take into account its negative medium- and long-term impacts on the region and on global growth. And the fact is that the overall trade and GDP destruction effects of trade wars tend to outweigh gains from shifts in trade activity.
That’s why Latin America should hope that the exchange of goodwill acts between the U.S. and China in recent weeks will be a harbinger of a more peaceful phase in international trade.
On Sept. 12, Donald Trump announced a postponement from Oct. 1 to Oct. 15 of planned U.S. tariff increases on $250 billion of Chinese goods. Beijing had previously released a list of 16 product types that would be left out of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports. A new round of high-level trade negotiations is scheduled to happen early next month, when China is expected to offer increases of purchases of U.S. agricultural products.
In a sign of how fickle the movement of agricultural trade from one country can be, unwinding trade diversion that has been a boon to parts of Latin America will certainly be part of any package offered by China in its negotiations with the U.S.
Some of that movement has indeed been significant. On Sept. 13, Argentina’s agriculture minister said that China had opened the way for value-added soy meal from his country, instead of selling only raw soy beans. Brazil, in part thanks to trade deviation, is poised to overcome the U.S. as the world’s largest soy producer this year.
There have also the trade diversion gains by Mexico through the partial replacement of Chinese manufacturing supplies, as well as recent announcements from multiple companies of plans to shift factories from China, Japan and Korea to Mexico. While China’s share of U.S. imports fell from 21% to 17.7% in the first quarters of 2019 and 2018, respectively, Mexico captured part of China’s sales in products subject to U.S. tariff retaliation and moved up from 13.5% to 14.5%.
Still, the U.S. attitude with respect to trade and its connection to other aspects of its policy agenda – including recent threats to Mexico demanding actions on immigration – should curb the enthusiasm with which this type of movement is received.
One must also consider the overall trade and GDP destruction effects of the trade war. Both the Chinese and U.S. economies are hurting.
In China, where trade between the two countries corresponds to a larger share of the economy than in the U.S., growth deceleration is mainly due to domestic issues of rebalancing and debt. But these have been aggravated by primary impacts of export losses and trade/production transfer abroad.
On the U.S. side, farmers and ranchers have been hit by plummeting sales to China, particularly because China’s retaliatory tariffs have targeted areas where Trump obtained many votes in the 2016 election. Additionally, consumers and domestic producers have suffered the burden of tariffs in the form of higher prices of final goods and inputs. Not by chance, signs of growth deceleration in the U.S. economy have been clearest among tradable sectors.
Both the U.S. and China’s partners have felt the consequences. Asian and European economies – especially industry-intensive Germany – have felt the impact of the global trade slowdown and of disruptions in value chains. In Latin America, the downward effects of China’s deceleration on demand has hit prices of copper in Chile and minerals in Peru. In fact, as recently explained in the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook, the imposition of both commodity-specific and broad-based tariffs tend to negatively affect regions with large resource wealth, such as Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Indirect effects of the trade war, via higher caution in capital spending decisions and through financial markets, can also be expected to hurt the region. Weakening global trade and heightened trade uncertainty have been major factors behind recent downward revisions to global growth by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. A newly released report by economists of the U.S. Federal Reserve suggests trade policy uncertainty as potentially leading to a haircut of 1% in U.S. GDP growth through the beginning of next year.
Financial markets have viewed the twists and shouts on trade policies as an important component of their activity. This is less because of the size of the direct economic effects of tariff increases than because of fears that the confrontation could extend beyond trade in agriculture and manufactured goods. Finally, an ongoing loosening of monetary policies in advanced economies could lead to currency pressures and, ultimately, a run to the safety of U.S. treasury bonds that would lead to capital outflows and currency depreciation in Latin America and elsewhere.
All in all, even from the standpoint of those Latin American economies accruing short-term gains from the trade war between U.S. and China, the negatives will likely outweigh the positives. A dispute between the two largest economies leads one to recall – as Ecuador’s President Lenín Moreno recently has – the old Swahili proverb:
“When elephants fight, the grass gets crushed; when elephants make love, the grass gets crushed!”

Canuto is principal at the Center for Macroeconomics and Development and a non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institute. He is a former vice president and executive director at the World Bank. Contact: ocanuto@cmacrodev.com

quinta-feira, 23 de maio de 2019

FMI: guerra comercial EUA-China ameaça crescimento mundial em 2019

FMI: guerra comercial EUA-China ameaça crescimento mundial em 2019

FMI: guerra comercial EUA-China ameaça crescimento mundial em 2019
O Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) advertiu, nesta quinta-feira (23), que a escalada da guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos e China ameaça o crescimento global em 2019 - AFP
O Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) advertiu, nesta quinta-feira (23), que a escalada da guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos e China “ameaçará” o crescimento global em 2019, o que minará a confiança e aumentará os preços para os consumidores.
“Os consumidores nos Estados Unidos e na China são inequivocamente os perdedores das tensões comerciais”, disse a economista-chefe do FMI, Gita Gopinath, em uma publicação do blog, refutando diretamente a afirmação do presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, de que as tarifas são pagas pela China e geram receita para os Estados Unidos.

sexta-feira, 10 de maio de 2019

Depois das grandes guerras globais e da Guerra Fria, no seculo XX, agora as grandes guerras economicas - Global Times (China)

Depois do assassinato do Arquiduque austríaco em Sarajevo, a irresponsabilidade e a arrogância de imperadores "medievais" – sim, imbuídos do militarismo aristocrático do Antigo Regime, como argumentou Arno Mayer – precipitaram o mundo no primeiro grande conflito global, a Grande Guerra, que foi seminal para desmantelar tudo o que havia sido construído no longo século XIX em matéria de paz e de cooperação internacional, no contexto da segunda onda de globalização, e para precipitar não só a Europa, mas todo o mundo num ciclo infernal de destruições materiais e de loucuras políticas, desembocando no segundo grande conflito global, ainda mais destruidor.
Digo isto para demonstrar como a IRRESPONSABILIDADE de certos dirigentes políticos pode trazer enormes turbulências, que destroem riquezas, desestruturam países, permitem a ascensão de demagogos, de populistas, eventualmente até de psicopatas perigosos.
Acredito que possamos estar em face de uma dessas novas rupturas, provocadas por um dirigente político altamente IRRESPONSÁVEL, capaz de precipitar uma guerra econômica que só vai destruir riquezas, em seu próprio país, e nos demais.
Reafirmo minha condenação absoluta dos gestos irresponsáveis do atual presidente americano, capaz de causar prejuízos aos seu próprio país, e fazer retroceder a ordem econômica mundial.
O Brasil não está imune, direta ou indiretamente, a esse tipo de populismo insensato e irresponsável.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

China vows to counter US tariffs

Global Times,  21:43 UTC+8, 2019-05-10   
Shanghai Daily, 10/05/2019

After months of truce, the trade war between China and the US escalated on Friday, after the US shrugged off widespread warnings and moved to hike tariffs on Chinese goods, drawing a firm response from China, which vowed to retaliate.
Though Chinese and US officials are continuing talks, the renewed tensions between the world's two largest economies significantly complicated ongoing negotiations, dimmed the prospects of any potential trade agreement and stoked fear that a full-fledged trade war could still break out. And the US is to blame for the risky turn of events, Chinese officials and analysts stressed.
After days of repeated threats, US officials on Friday noon (Beijing Time) increased an existing 10 percent tariff on $200 billion in Chinese goods to 25 percent, breaking a truce reached by the leaders of the two countries in December 2018 and highlighting the unreliable and unpredictable nature of the US administration.
Minutes after the US tariff hike took effect, China struck back. In a statement, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that China "will have to take necessary countermeasures," while still urging the US to meet China halfway in ongoing negotiations in Washington.
Even as tensions escalated, officials pushed through with the 11th round of negotiations as they try to make a last-ditch effort to bring the months-long talks back on track for a trade agreement.
The Chinese delegation was seen arriving at the Office of the US Trade Representative at around 5 pm on Thursday US time and left about an hour and half later. The talks will continue on Friday morning, according to US media reports.
 "We are now at a very delicate place, where further negotiations have become significantly more difficult… the risk of a further escalation also increased," Song Guoyou, director of Fudan University's Center for Economic Diplomacy, told the Global Times on Friday. "We cannot allow this to become normal. That would be dangerous."

Forced retaliation

Chinese officials have repeatedly stressed that China does not want to fight a trade war, but Washington's aggressiveness and belligerence left them no other option but to fight back, analysts said.
"China will also have to make good on its own words, otherwise, it will be at a huge disadvantage to the US team at the negotiations," said He Weiwen, a former senior Chinese trade official, told the Global Times on Friday, referring to China's earlier vow to retaliate if the US went ahead with the tariff threat.
Though the MOFCOM on Friday did not say what countermeasures China will take and when it will implement them, there are many ways China can inflict pain on the US economy, according to analysts.
"The most direct countermeasure would be raising existing tariffs on US goods or imposing tariffs on more US products," Song said. "However, we cannot rule out other policy tools."
Song pointed out that with the overall trade relationship souring, US companies' operations and investments in China could also be impacted, given the rising anger among the Chinese public toward the US.
In the wake of renewed tensions, calls on Chinese social media to boycott US products rose, including US films, iPhones and computers. "Why retaliate? All we need to do is boycotting US products," one internet user said on Sina Weibo.
Chinese analysts also suggested that China could target the US financial system, the backbone of the US economy, including unloading China's holdings of US Treasury bonds. Big US corporations and products, such as agricultural goods, will also likely encounter more scrutiny in China.
"Such an impact on US companies and industries will not be less severe than from the tariffs," Song said.
Many US business groups have expressed strong opposition to the tariffs. On Wall Street, US stocks have also suffered losses in the past few days, as have stocks in major bourses across the world.

Complicated outlook

While it remains to be seen whether trade officials could still make a breakthrough at the talks, it is clear that the escalation complicates the talks and dims prospects for a deal, analysts said.
"I don't expect too much from this round of talks," a source in Washington familiar with the talks told the Global Times on Friday, noting that US President Donald Trump had miscalculated.
"He initially wanted to show how he forced China into making concessions," the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said. "But that is like forcing China not to sign the deal quickly".
However, citing US eagerness, other observers have also argued that there is still a chance for the two sides to reach a deal.
"I think there is still a chance for the two countries to reach an agreement," Sang Baichuan, director of the Institute of International Business at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, told the Global Times on Friday, noting that the two sides still appear eager to reach a deal, despite their tough rhetoric.
In what appears to be an attempt to leave room for talks, US officials offered a grace period for the tariff hike. Trump also said on Thursday that a deal is still "possible" this week and that he might speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping by phone, CNBC reported.
Asked about the phone call, Geng Shuang, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said on Friday that he was not aware of such a plan but the two leaders have maintained close contact.