Otaviano Canuto on US-China trade war and its impact on Latin America

Latin America Is Not Benefiting from the U.S.-China Trade War

Otaviano Canuto

Center for Macroeconomics and Development, September 16, 2019

https://www.cmacrodev.com/latin-america-is-not-benefiting-from-the-u-s-china-trade-war/

Has the U.S. trade war with China been good for Latin America?

An increase in Chinese demand for primary products from the region, as well as recent news of production transfers from China to Mexico, might give the impression that it has.

But any positive short-term effects of the confrontation should also take into account its negative medium- and long-term impacts on the region and on global growth. And the fact is that the overall trade and GDP destruction effects of trade wars tend to outweigh gains from shifts in trade activity.

That’s why Latin America should hope that the exchange of goodwill acts between the U.S. and China in recent weeks will be a harbinger of a more peaceful phase in international trade.

On Sept. 12, Donald Trump announced a postponement from Oct. 1 to Oct. 15 of planned U.S. tariff increases on $250 billion of Chinese goods. Beijing had previously released a list of 16 product types that would be left out of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports. A new round of high-level trade negotiations is scheduled to happen early next month, when China is expected to offer increases of purchases of U.S. agricultural products.

In a sign of how fickle the movement of agricultural trade from one country can be, unwinding trade diversion that has been a boon to parts of Latin America will certainly be part of any package offered by China in its negotiations with the U.S.

Some of that movement has indeed been significant. On Sept. 13, Argentina’s agriculture minister said that China had opened the way for value-added soy meal from his country, instead of selling only raw soy beans. Brazil, in part thanks to trade deviation, is poised to overcome the U.S. as the world’s largest soy producer this year.

There have also the trade diversion gains by Mexico through the partial replacement of Chinese manufacturing supplies, as well as recent announcements from multiple companies of plans to shift factories from China, Japan and Korea to Mexico. While China’s share of U.S. imports fell from 21% to 17.7% in the first quarters of 2019 and 2018, respectively, Mexico captured part of China’s sales in products subject to U.S. tariff retaliation and moved up from 13.5% to 14.5%.

Still, the U.S. attitude with respect to trade and its connection to other aspects of its policy agenda – including recent threats to Mexico demanding actions on immigration – should curb the enthusiasm with which this type of movement is received.

One must also consider the overall trade and GDP destruction effects of the trade war. Both the Chinese and U.S. economies are hurting.

In China, where trade between the two countries corresponds to a larger share of the economy than in the U.S., growth deceleration is mainly due to domestic issues of rebalancing and debt. But these have been aggravated by primary impacts of export losses and trade/production transfer abroad.

On the U.S. side, farmers and ranchers have been hit by plummeting sales to China, particularly because China’s retaliatory tariffs have targeted areas where Trump obtained many votes in the 2016 election. Additionally, consumers and domestic producers have suffered the burden of tariffs in the form of higher prices of final goods and inputs. Not by chance, signs of growth deceleration in the U.S. economy have been clearest among tradable sectors.

Both the U.S. and China’s partners have felt the consequences. Asian and European economies – especially industry-intensive Germany – have felt the impact of the global trade slowdown and of disruptions in value chains. In Latin America, the downward effects of China’s deceleration on demand has hit prices of copper in Chile and minerals in Peru. In fact, as recently explained in the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook, the imposition of both commodity-specific and broad-based tariffs tend to negatively affect regions with large resource wealth, such as Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Indirect effects of the trade war, via higher caution in capital spending decisions and through financial markets, can also be expected to hurt the region. Weakening global trade and heightened trade uncertainty have been major factors behind recent downward revisions to global growth by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. A newly released report by economists of the U.S. Federal Reserve suggests trade policy uncertainty as potentially leading to a haircut of 1% in U.S. GDP growth through the beginning of next year.

Financial markets have viewed the twists and shouts on trade policies as an important component of their activity. This is less because of the size of the direct economic effects of tariff increases than because of fears that the confrontation could extend beyond trade in agriculture and manufactured goods. Finally, an ongoing loosening of monetary policies in advanced economies could lead to currency pressures and, ultimately, a run to the safety of U.S. treasury bonds that would lead to capital outflows and currency depreciation in Latin America and elsewhere.

All in all, even from the standpoint of those Latin American economies accruing short-term gains from the trade war between U.S. and China, the negatives will likely outweigh the positives. A dispute between the two largest economies leads one to recall – as Ecuador’s President Lenín Moreno recently has – the old Swahili proverb:

“When elephants fight, the grass gets crushed; when elephants make love, the grass gets crushed!”

Canuto is principal at the Center for Macroeconomics and Development and a non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institute. He is a former vice president and executive director at the World Bank. Contact: ocanuto@cmacrodev.com

FMI: guerra comercial EUA-China ameaça crescimento mundial em 2019

IstoÉ Dinheiro, 23/05/19

O Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) advertiu, nesta quinta-feira (23), que a escalada da guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos e China ameaça o crescimento global em 2019 - AFP

O Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI) advertiu, nesta quinta-feira (23), que a escalada da guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos e China “ameaçará” o crescimento global em 2019, o que minará a confiança e aumentará os preços para os consumidores.

“Os consumidores nos Estados Unidos e na China são inequivocamente os perdedores das tensões comerciais”, disse a economista-chefe do FMI, Gita Gopinath, em uma publicação do blog, refutando diretamente a afirmação do presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, de que as tarifas são pagas pela China e geram receita para os Estados Unidos.

Depois das grandes guerras globais e da Guerra Fria, no seculo XX, agora as grandes guerras economicas - Global Times (China)

Depois do assassinato do Arquiduque austríaco em Sarajevo, a irresponsabilidade e a arrogância de imperadores "medievais" – sim, imbuídos do militarismo aristocrático do Antigo Regime, como argumentou Arno Mayer – precipitaram o mundo no primeiro grande conflito global, a Grande Guerra, que foi seminal para desmantelar tudo o que havia sido construído no longo século XIX em matéria de paz e de cooperação internacional, no contexto da segunda onda de globalização, e para precipitar não só a Europa, mas todo o mundo num ciclo infernal de destruições materiais e de loucuras políticas, desembocando no segundo grande conflito global, ainda mais destruidor.
Digo isto para demonstrar como a IRRESPONSABILIDADE de certos dirigentes políticos pode trazer enormes turbulências, que destroem riquezas, desestruturam países, permitem a ascensão de demagogos, de populistas, eventualmente até de psicopatas perigosos.
Acredito que possamos estar em face de uma dessas novas rupturas, provocadas por um dirigente político altamente IRRESPONSÁVEL, capaz de precipitar uma guerra econômica que só vai destruir riquezas, em seu próprio país, e nos demais.
Reafirmo minha condenação absoluta dos gestos irresponsáveis do atual presidente americano, capaz de causar prejuízos aos seu próprio país, e fazer retroceder a ordem econômica mundial.
O Brasil não está imune, direta ou indiretamente, a esse tipo de populismo insensato e irresponsável.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

China vows to counter US tariffs

Global Times,  21:43 UTC+8, 2019-05-10   

Shanghai Daily, 10/05/2019

https://www.shine.cn/biz/finance/1905104478/ 

After months of truce, the trade war between China and the US escalated on Friday, after the US shrugged off widespread warnings and moved to hike tariffs on Chinese goods, drawing a firm response from China, which vowed to retaliate.

Though Chinese and US officials are continuing talks, the renewed tensions between the world's two largest economies significantly complicated ongoing negotiations, dimmed the prospects of any potential trade agreement and stoked fear that a full-fledged trade war could still break out. And the US is to blame for the risky turn of events, Chinese officials and analysts stressed.

After days of repeated threats, US officials on Friday noon (Beijing Time) increased an existing 10 percent tariff on $200 billion in Chinese goods to 25 percent, breaking a truce reached by the leaders of the two countries in December 2018 and highlighting the unreliable and unpredictable nature of the US administration.

Minutes after the US tariff hike took effect, China struck back. In a statement, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that China "will have to take necessary countermeasures," while still urging the US to meet China halfway in ongoing negotiations in Washington.

Even as tensions escalated, officials pushed through with the 11th round of negotiations as they try to make a last-ditch effort to bring the months-long talks back on track for a trade agreement.

The Chinese delegation was seen arriving at the Office of the US Trade Representative at around 5 pm on Thursday US time and left about an hour and half later. The talks will continue on Friday morning, according to US media reports.

 "We are now at a very delicate place, where further negotiations have become significantly more difficult… the risk of a further escalation also increased," Song Guoyou, director of Fudan University's Center for Economic Diplomacy, told the Global Times on Friday. "We cannot allow this to become normal. That would be dangerous."

Forced retaliation

Chinese officials have repeatedly stressed that China does not want to fight a trade war, but Washington's aggressiveness and belligerence left them no other option but to fight back, analysts said.

"China will also have to make good on its own words, otherwise, it will be at a huge disadvantage to the US team at the negotiations," said He Weiwen, a former senior Chinese trade official, told the Global Times on Friday, referring to China's earlier vow to retaliate if the US went ahead with the tariff threat.

Though the MOFCOM on Friday did not say what countermeasures China will take and when it will implement them, there are many ways China can inflict pain on the US economy, according to analysts.

"The most direct countermeasure would be raising existing tariffs on US goods or imposing tariffs on more US products," Song said. "However, we cannot rule out other policy tools."

Song pointed out that with the overall trade relationship souring, US companies' operations and investments in China could also be impacted, given the rising anger among the Chinese public toward the US.

In the wake of renewed tensions, calls on Chinese social media to boycott US products rose, including US films, iPhones and computers. "Why retaliate? All we need to do is boycotting US products," one internet user said on Sina Weibo.

Chinese analysts also suggested that China could target the US financial system, the backbone of the US economy, including unloading China's holdings of US Treasury bonds. Big US corporations and products, such as agricultural goods, will also likely encounter more scrutiny in China.

"Such an impact on US companies and industries will not be less severe than from the tariffs," Song said.

Many US business groups have expressed strong opposition to the tariffs. On Wall Street, US stocks have also suffered losses in the past few days, as have stocks in major bourses across the world.

Complicated outlook

While it remains to be seen whether trade officials could still make a breakthrough at the talks, it is clear that the escalation complicates the talks and dims prospects for a deal, analysts said.

"I don't expect too much from this round of talks," a source in Washington familiar with the talks told the Global Times on Friday, noting that US President Donald Trump had miscalculated.

"He initially wanted to show how he forced China into making concessions," the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said. "But that is like forcing China not to sign the deal quickly".

However, citing US eagerness, other observers have also argued that there is still a chance for the two sides to reach a deal.

"I think there is still a chance for the two countries to reach an agreement," Sang Baichuan, director of the Institute of International Business at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, told the Global Times on Friday, noting that the two sides still appear eager to reach a deal, despite their tough rhetoric.

In what appears to be an attempt to leave room for talks, US officials offered a grace period for the tariff hike. Trump also said on Thursday that a deal is still "possible" this week and that he might speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping by phone, CNBC reported.

Asked about the phone call, Geng Shuang, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said on Friday that he was not aware of such a plan but the two leaders have maintained close contact.

Fim da guerra comercial entre China e EUA? Efeitos possiveis sobre o Brasil - Marcos Jank

Se persistir a política anti-China do chanceler, ou mesmo se, por milagre, nossa política externa for totalmente pró-China, ainda assim poderemos ter consequências nefastas de um acordo de conveniência entre a China e o governo Trump. 
Nós sofreremos as consequências, como alerta Marcos Jank...
Transcrevo o trecho final: 
"Enfim, se esse acordo se concretizar, poderemos estar entrando numa era de “comércio administrado” caso a caso, sob a égide de interesses geopolíticos, que pode reduzir o nosso acesso à China, ao Brics e a outros mercados emergentes. Aí sim, estaríamos entregando a nossa alma."
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Impacto do Acordo EUA-China no agro brasileiro

Jornal “Folha de São Paulo”, Caderno Mercado, 16/03/2019

Marcos S. Jank (*)

André Soares (**)

Brasil pode ser atingido em soja, milho, algodão, etanol e todas as carnes.

O encontro entre Jair Bolsonaro e Donald Trump no dia 19 se dará às vésperas da conclusão de um acordo histórico entre EUA e China que pode ser altamente disruptivo para o agronegócio mundial, afetando principalmente o Brasil.

O acordo pode representar o fim de uma era em que o comércio se expandia baseado essencialmente na competitividade dos países, sem grande esforço.

Ele traz novos elementos para a equação: pressionados por imenso déficit comercial de US$ 420 bilhões, os EUA deram início a uma guerra mercantilista com a China impondo elevadas tarifas sobre US$ 250 bilhões em importações. O gigante asiático retrucou impondo tarifas sobre US$ 110 bilhões dos EUA, o que atingiu em cheio a soja americana. A disputa trouxe US$ 8 bilhões adicionais às nossas exportações de soja para a China, levando os incautos a inclusive “comemorar” a guerra comercial.

Tudo indica que os EUA vão forçar a China a ampliar as suas compras de produtos agropecuários americanos em absurdos US$ 30 bilhões anuais, que, na melhor das hipóteses, se somariam aos US$ 14 bilhões que foram adquiridos em 2018. Previsões mais sombrias dizem que as importações chinesas vindas dos EUA poderiam ultrapassar US$ 50 bilhões anuais, se somadas ao valor de 2017, que foi de US$ 22 bilhões.

Acreditamos que as exportações mundiais de soja voltarão ao seu curso normal pré-2017, com os chineses se beneficiando plenamente da alternância das safras americana (EUA) e sul-americana (Brasil e Argentina), que ocorrem em diferentes momentos do ano. Essa complementariedade garante estabilidade de oferta e menor risco para a China.

Ocorre, porém, que, para chegar aos US$ 30 bilhões adicionais, a China teria de oferecer acesso privilegiado aos EUA em outros produtos.

Dois casos com forte impacto sobre o Brasil são o milho e o algodão. O consumo de milho da China é gigante (280 milhões de toneladas), porém as suas importações têm sido muito reduzidas —apenas 3,5 milhões de toneladas em 2018. Os EUA pressionarão a China a importar muito mais milho, flexibilizando o seu regime restritivo de cotas de importação e facilitando o ingresso de milho transgênico.

Outros produtos americanos que seriam beneficiados pelo acordo são o etanol de milho, o DDG (subproduto da produção de etanol usado em alimentação animal) e as carnes. No caso do etanol, a importação viria da obrigatoriedade de mistura de 10% de etanol na gasolina da China (E10), que foi mandatada no passado, mas jamais cumprida.

Estimamos que, entre produtos e subprodutos de milho, etanol e algodão, a China poderia ampliar suas importações dos EUA em mais de US$ 10 bilhões adicionais por ano.

Nas carnes, se a China retirar as restrições técnicas e sanitárias que foram impostas aos americanos nos últimos anos, certamente seremos prejudicados em todas as proteínas animais —aves, suínos e bovinos—, com destaque para as perdas de mercado em pés e coxas de frango.

A China certamente tem meios para atender à forte pressão dos EUA, ampliando o acesso de soja e de outros produtos agropecuários. Resta saber se isso será feito à luz das regras da OMC, se ela vai “forçar a barra” na flexibilização das barreiras técnicas e sanitárias e se usará a sua estrutura estatal (estoques estratégicos e empresas públicas) para operacionalizar o acordo.

Enfim, se esse acordo se concretizar, poderemos estar entrando numa era de “comércio administrado” caso a caso, sob a égide de interesses geopolíticos, que pode reduzir o nosso acesso à China, ao Brics e a outros mercados emergentes. Aí sim, estaríamos entregando a nossa alma.

(*) Marcos Sawaya Jank é especialista em questões globais do agronegócio. Escreve aos sábados, a cada duas semanas.

(**) André Soares é Senior Fellow do CEBRI (Centro Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais).

A China em Davos: discurso do vice-presidente - Wang Qishan

Full text of Chinese vice president's speech at 2019 WEF annual meeting

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan. 24 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan on Wednesday delivered a speech at the 2019 Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum.

An English translated version of the speech is as follows:

Stay Confident and Work Together for A Shared Future

Speech by H.E. Wang Qishan

Vice President of the People's Republic of China

At the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting

Davos, 23 January 2019

Dear Dr. Klaus Schwab,

Ladies and gentlemen,

Friends,

It gives me great pleasure to attend the 2019 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting.

This year is the 40th anniversary of the relations between China and the WEF. Over the past four decades, Davos, this lovely small town with its unique appeal, has become an important platform for China to learn about the world, exchange views, state its position and seek common understanding.

This year 2019 marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. The past seven decades have witnessed remarkable achievements in China's development. Our nation has made historical transformation in terms of social productivity and composite national strength and delivered initial prosperity to its people who were once struggling to meet their basic living needs. China's status and influence have risen as never before. Indeed, China has increasingly become an important force for upholding world peace and promoting common development.

Many foreign friends have often put this question to me: What has made it possible for China to achieve so much in development and progress? And how will a stronger China engage the rest of the world? Well, these questions can be answered from historical, cultural and philosophical perspectives. Given the close linkage between the past, the present and the future, one needs to learn about China's past in order to understand its present and forecast its future.

China has an uninterrupted civilization of more than 5,000 years, and the Chinese nation has both gone through sufferings and made splendid achievements. When the West embarked upon industrialization and embraced the oceans, China fell behind because its emperors chose to shut China's door to the world, and this made China a victim of foreign aggression. Since modern times began, China was beset by crises at home and abroad, and ravaged by wars and chaos, which inflicted untold sufferings to its people. However, in a century of darkness, the Chinese people, rising one upon another in an unyielding spirit, never stopped searching for a way towards national renewal and prosperity.

Seventy years ago, the Communist Party of China, rallying the Chinese people around itself, engaged in an indomitable struggle and succeeded in establishing a New China in the ruins of an old semi-colonial and semi-feudal society, thus achieving national independence and liberation of the Chinese people. Since then, the Chinese nation has gained rebirth and entered a new era of development.

We will stay true to the founding mission of the Communist Party of China, uphold its leadership and China's fundamental socialist political and economic systems and be guided by a people-centered development philosophy. From the founding and building of the People's Republic to the launching of the reform and opening-up program and the shifting of focus to economic development, we have moved away from revolution to reform, from a planned economy to a market economy and from isolation to all-round opening-up. In this process, we have broken free from the fetters of dogma and Utopian thinking, freed our minds and taken a realistic and pragmatic approach, and applied Marxism's basic tenets in the context of China's realities. Four to five generations of us Chinese have, going through twists and turns, probed a way forward. Through trials and errors, with many lessons learned and heavy prices paid along the way, we have made great accomplishments and embarked upon a path of building socialism with distinctive Chinese features. Thanks to 70 years of hard work and dedication, we have turned a weak and impoverished agrarian country with backward productivity into the world's second largest economy, the largest industrial manufacturer, and the largest trader of goods, creating bright prospects for the great renewal of the Chinese nation.

This is what history has told us:

-- The Chinese nation, long among the leading civilizations in the world history, has made unique and significant contribution to human progress. The profound historical and cultural heritage of the Chinese nation is in the genes of its people. What we long for is to see China once again gain its rightful place among the nations of the world and achieve great rejuvenation.

-- The Chinese nation as we know today originates from a number of nationalities that embraced and integrated into one another throughout history. We are a peace-loving, open and inclusive nation that keeps abreast of the times. While keeping the fine Chinese culture alive and strong, we also respect other civilizations and values, and draw inspirations from other cultures. As we continue to follow the socialist path with distinctive Chinese features, we will respect other peoples' independent choices of paths and systems.

-- The Chinese culture values the teachings that one should help others to succeed while seeking one's own success, create a world for all, treat others with respect and pursue win-win cooperation. We reject the practices of the strong bullying the weak and self-claimed supremacy. Today, China's interests and future are closely linked to those of the world. While developing itself, China also wishes to work with all countries for common development and a community with a shared future for mankind.

-- The advances in China in the past 70 years are not a godsend, nor a gift from others. Rather, they are made by the Chinese people through vision, hard work, courage, reform and innovation. By striving to meet people's aspirations for a better life, we can surely win their support. United as one, we Chinese can surely overcome various risks and challenges.

-- A land of over 9.6 million square kilometers, a people of nearly 1.4 billion, and a history of over 5,000 years: These are the underlying features of China, and they are the source from which China derives confidence in its path, theory, system and culture. We have embarked on a right path that fits China's conditions and is in keeping with the trend of the times. And we will further improve and enrich socialism with distinctive Chinese features through reform and opening-up. This is a path we believe in, and we will steadily forge ahead along this path.

Ladies and gentlemen,

In recent years, problems in the global economy such as lack of new growth drivers, unbalanced development and uneven income distribution have intensified. New challenges brought by new technologies, new industries and new forms of business have mounted. Many countries are increasingly looking inward when making policies; barriers to international trade and investment are increasing; and unilateralism, protectionism and populism are spreading in the world. All these are posing serious challenges to the international order. Will economic globalization move forward or reverse course?

The economic globalization, which gained rapid ground in the last century, was started by Western developed countries, or the Mediterranean civilization. In the late 20th and early 21st centuries, technological advances have significantly reduced the geographical distance and other barriers to exchanges among countries and accelerated the economic globalization process. The BRICS countries, Vietnam, Indonesia and other emerging economies have risen. As a result, economic globalization has reached a new stage as we now know. Western multinational corporations and financial institutions are the main drivers of economic globalization. As they seek maximum profit in their operations, they allocate resources to countries and regions with low-cost production factors and sound business environment when building global industrial chains. In this process, China has moved up from the low end to the medium and high end of the global industrial chain. The nearly 1.4 billion Chinese who are enjoying greater prosperity have unleashed huge demand backed by purchasing power. And this has unlocked enormous market potential that no one can afford to ignore.

Economic globalization represents an inevitable trend of history given the enormous potential that derives from harnessing the comparative advantages of countries and enhancing economic connectivity. In response to the problems and challenges in the world today, the international community need to make serious and deep-going analysis, and more importantly, take collective actions in line with the trend proactively.

Under market economy conditions, too much emphasis on efficiency often comes at the cost of equity. While there are both internal and external factors that cause a problem, the internal one plays the key role. Therefore we must take a targeted approach to address the problems that have emerged in the process of economic globalization. Development imbalances need to be resolved through further development. Countries need to press ahead with structural reform, strike a right balance between equity and efficiency, adopt effective policy measures to prevent the worsening of income inequality and fend off the impact on some regions and industries caused by new technologies and market competition, so that all people stand to gain from continued development. What we need to do is make the pie bigger while looking for ways to share it in a more equitable way. The last thing we should do is to stop making the pie and just engage in a futile debate on how to divide it. Shifting blame for one's own problems onto others will not resolve the problems.

To address its problem, China's choice is to focus on managing our own affairs well. Socialism with distinctive Chinese features has entered a new era, yet China also faces the problem of imbalances in development. The principal issue confronting the Chinese society is that unbalanced and inadequate development cannot meet our people's ever-growing needs for a better life. We will pursue development as the top priority, promote coordinated economic, political, cultural, social and ecological advancement, and move steadily towards making China a moderately prosperous society in all respects.

We in China have continued to carry out reform across the board, resolving many tough issues and navigating dangerous rapids. Major headway has been made in supply-side structural reform, digital economy and other emerging industries are flourishing, and an innovation-driven China is taking shape. Decisive progress has been made in key battles of poverty alleviation, with the number of rural people living in poverty cut by over 80 million since 2013. Thanks to stronger measures taken, China's environment has been further improved. The Communist Party of China, the governing party in China, has strengthened itself by strictly enforcing party discipline, and a crushing victory has been secured in fighting corruption.

We in China have continued to promote opening-up across the board, advance international cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative, upgrade an open world economy, and work for a new type of international relations featuring mutual respect, equity, justice and win-win cooperation under the principle of consultation and cooperation for shared benefit. China remains committed to building world peace, promoting global growth and upholding the international order.

Ladies and gentlemen,

New technologies bring opportunities, but they also create risks and challenges. Every major breakthrough in scientific discovery and technological innovation has greatly boosted human development and progress; but it has also led to the restructuring of value chains, industrial chains and supply chains, and disrupted the balance in the economy and society and between countries and regions. Indeed, such breakthrough challenges the existing rules and order. As a result, adjustments need to be made to both the economic and social governance of countries and global economic governance.

We are meeting here under the theme "Globalization 4.0: Shaping a Global Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution", which is highly relevant. The fourth industrial revolution, with its speed, scale and complexity and the way it shapes human society, represents a significant evolution of the globalization process. We must work together to shape the global architecture in the age of the fourth industrial revolution with the vision to create a better future for all mankind.

We need to uphold the security of all mankind. We need to explore the adoption of relevant rules and standards in a phased way, while leaving broad space for the dissemination and application of scientific discovery and technological innovation. We need to accommodate in a balanced manner the interests of all countries, especially those of emerging markets and developing countries. One should not ask the whole world to address only the security concern and comply only with the standards of developed countries or individual countries.

It is imperative to respect national sovereignty and refrain from seeking technological hegemony, interfering in other countries' domestic affairs, and conducting, shielding or protecting technology-enabled activities that undermine other countries' national security. We need to respect the independent choices of model of technology management and of public policies made by countries, and their right to participating in the global technological governance system as equals.

We need to uphold multilateralism, engage in extensive dialogue and cooperation based on mutual respect and mutual trust, and jointly build a system of rules for technology and new international cooperation framework featuring peace, security, democracy, transparency, inclusiveness and mutual benefit, so that all people can gain from technological innovation.

We need to uphold social equity and justice, and ensure technological innovations are made in compliance with the rule of law and internationally recognized norms and that they are guided by us humans, meet our needs and be compatible with our values. We need to prevent technological advances from being turned into tools of committing terrorism and crimes or violating individual rights.

We need to improve policy environment and promote social prosperity and stability. We should both respect and protect the rights and interests of innovators. At the same time, we should provide necessary education and training to enable the public to adapt to the fast advancement of technology and ensure that such advancement helps raise living standards, create jobs, protect the environment, and promote the long-term interests of mankind.

Ladies and gentlemen,

In this changing world, making advance is like climbing a mountain. It is commitment, conviction and confidence that drive us forward. In this era of unfolding economic globalization, all of us mankind share a common stake. As a Swiss proverb goes, "Torches light up each other." Let us illuminate the path ahead, progress together, ascend to the summit and jointly create a great future for all mankind.

China-EUA: a guerra comercial continua, tanks to Mr. Trump - The Washington Post

Trump has decided to impose tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods in dramatic escalation of trade battle

David J. Lynch

The Washington Post, September 15 at 4:44 PM

President Trump has decided to impose tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods, two people briefed on the decision said, one of the most severe economic restrictions ever imposed by a U.S. president.

An announcement is expected to come within days, the people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss internal plans.

The new tariffs would apply to more than 1,000 products, including refrigerators, air conditioners, furniture, televisions and toys. These penalties could drive up the cost of a range of products ahead of the holiday shopping season, though it’s unclear how much.

Apple said recently its Apple Watch, AirPods, MacMini and a variety of chargers and adapters would be caught in the tariff war. “Our concern with these tariffs is that the U.S. will be hardest hit, and that will result in lower U.S. growth and competitiveness and higher prices for U.S. consumers,” the company said in a letter to the U. S. Trade representative. “The burden of the proposed tariffs will fall much more heavily on the United States than on China.”

Trump has ordered aides to set the tariffs at 10 percent, likely leading to higher prices for American consumers. These tariffs are paid by U.S. companies that import the products, though they often pass the costs along to U.S. consumers in the form of higher prices.

The U.S. imports roughly $500 billion in Chinese goods each year, and — combined with existing tariffs — these new penalties would cover half of all goods sent to the U.S. from China each year.

The 10 percent tariff is scaled back from Trump’s initial plan to impose 25 percent penalties on all of these imports. But the impact will still likely be felt by millions of American consumers.

A White House spokesman didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday afternoon.

On Friday, White House spokeswoman Lindsay Walters said: “The President has been clear that he and his administration will continue to take action to address China’s unfair trade practices. We encourage China to address the long standing concerns raised by the United States. ”

Trump’s top advisers have been united behind his effort to push China to change its economic practices, but they have been split on his tactics. Some have advocated a more cautious, diplomatic approach.

But Trump has signaled that he believes only the threat of real economic pain will push Beijing into major changes. He has recently boasted that he believes China’s economy is suffering because of his hard-charging style.

Trump has accused China of a number of unfair trade practices. He wants China to buy more American products, open up China to more U.S. investment, and stop stealing U.S. intellectual property, among other things.

The tariffs come as a number of top White House advisers have been trying to de-escalate tensions between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was planning to restart talks with China soon.

Chinese leaders have vowed to retaliate to any escalation of the trade battle with punitive steps of their own, and Trump’s move could further push Beijing to retaliate.

The decision was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.

Trump has tried to use tariffs to penalize a number of countries this year, including Mexico, Japan, Canada, and members of the European Union, hoping that the threat of driving up costs on their products will make them more open to his demands. The tactic has had mixed success.

Trump first imposed tariffs on roughly $50 billion in Chinese products this summer. The list of products mostly included industrial equipment to avoid directly impacting consumers.

China responded by imposing tariffs on U.S. products like beef and soybeans, a response that spooked the U.S. agriculture industry and angered Trump and other White House officials. Trump responded this summer by ordering his advisers to come up with a list of $200 billion in other Chinese products to penalize, a package of products that includes many consumer products.

And two weeks ago he said he is preparing a third package of penalties on what he said would be $267 billion in additional items, a list that likely encompasses all remaining goods produced in China.

“For the near term, this combination of tactics seems to signal that unless and until China comes to the table with significant actions on the issues the U.S. is hammering, the U.S. will keep tariff pressure going,” said Claire Reade, a former U.S. trade negotiator. “Talks without action won’t do the trick. The open question, of course, is how much action is enough and can China find a way to move that will be seen as being in its own interest, not kowtowing to the U.S.

The U.S. ran a $233.5 billion deficit in goods trade with China during the first seven months of the year, an 8 percent increase compared with the same period in 2017.

Corporate executives increasingly believe the trade dispute can only be resolved by direct talks between Trump and Xi. The two leaders may see each other at the United Nations General Assembly in New York later this month and are scheduled to meet on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires in November.