As coisas no BRICS andam um pouco confusas, para dizer o mínimo...

 Heads of state from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa will make a pronouncement on the enlargement of the group when they meet 

A planned announcement on the expansion of BRICS at a forthcoming summit in South Africa will mark a significant change in the global order, the nation’s ambassador to the five-nation bloc said, even as some of its members push back against new admissions.

Heads of state from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa will make a pronouncement on the enlargement of the group when they meet Aug. 22-24, Anil Sooklal said in a lecture at the University of KwaZulu-Natal on Wednesday. Twenty-two nations have asked formally to become full-time members of the group, and more than 20 others have submitted informal requests.

China favors a rapid expansion of the bloc, which will require consensus among its members. But it has encountered opposition from India, which wants strict rules on how and when other nations could move closer to the group without formally enlarging it, and from Brazil, which is wary of alienating the US and European Union, according to officials with knowledge of the matter. 

“BRICS has been a catalyst for a tectonic change you will see in the global geopolitical architecture starting with the summit,” Sooklal said. While he emphasized that the bloc doesn’t see itself as a counterweight to any other organization, he said its expansion was stoking anxiety and opposition among nations in “privileged positions.” 

Russian leader Vladimir Putin will participate at the gathering virtually, avoiding the risk of possible arrest on a warrant from the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes if he travels to South Africa, which is a member of the tribunal.

A decision on whether Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend has yet to be taken, although necessary security arrangements have been made and other pre-visit formalities have been completed, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. While Modi’s absence may be viewed as a snub to the host and he would miss out on bilateral meetings with other leaders, India isn’t comfortable with him holding talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping while a border dispute remains unresolved, they said. 

So far, representatives from 71 nations have been invited to attend the summit, according to Sooklal. 

“This will be the largest gathering in recent time of countries from the Global South coming together to discuss the current global challenges,” he said. 

Formed officially in 2009-2010, BRICS has struggled to have the kind of geopolitical influence that matches its collective economic reach. The bloc’s members represent more than 42% of the world’s population and account for 23% of global gross domestic product and 18% of trade.

An expanded BRICS will account for “almost 50% of the global population and over 35% of global GDP and that figure will grow,” Sooklal said. He also highlighted the role that the bloc’s leaders were playing in trying to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“There is no tangible evidence that any one of the BRICS countries, South Africa included, is feeding weapons into that conflict,” he said. “But there is clear evidence to the global community that the West is pumping billions of dollars into that conflict and the conflict is raging, so who is talking peace and who is talking war?”

https://www.business-standard.com/amp/world-news/brics-will-move-forward-on-expansion-at-summit-says-south-africa-123080200907_1.html

Estados vilões buscam a inteligência das universidades ocidentais - Fiona Hamilton (Times)

É um fato: Estados vilões - aqui identificados explicitamente com a Rússia de Putin, a China de Xi Jinping e o Irã dos aiatolás - usam o conhecimento avançado obtido nos centros de produção mais sofisticados como alavancas contra os seus próprios povos e contra outras nações civilizadas. Goste-se ou não da afirmação, ela parece evidente.

You are targets for hostile states, students told

Fiona Hamilton 

Crime and Security Editor 

Times, July 27, 2023

Universities are "magnetic targets for espionage and manipulation", the head of M15 has warned, as he compared the global scientific race to the Cold War.

 Ken McCallum said hostile actors were stealing British research with "dispiriting regularity" and urged students to be extremely cautious to avoid passing secrets to China, Russia and Iran.

 McCallum said: "Today's contest for scientific and technological advantage is not a rerun of what we had in the Cold War but it is every bit as far reaching. Systemic competition means just that.

If your field of research is relevant to advanced materials or quantum computing or AI or biotech, to name but a few, your work will be of interest to people employed by states who do not share our values." 

McCallum issued the warning last month as he delivered the annual Bowman Lecture at the University of Glasgow, where he graduated with a degree in mathematics in 1996. He was speaking to students, staff and alumni. 

He has previously said that spies for hostile states are targeting politicians, military officials, think tanks, academics and other officials to gather valuable information but had not previously been so explicit in his language about the threat at universities. 

Last week a report by the parliamentary intelligence and security committee said universities had become a "rich feeding ground" for China to seek intellectual property and military technology, saying some had turned a "blind eye" to the risks while taking its money. 

The Times revealed last year that British universities had accepted £240 million for research collaborations with Chinese institutions, many with links to the military, leading to concerns the work could help Beijing to build superweapons. 

McCallum told Glasgow students:

"Hostile actors working for other states make it their business to take your hard work and use it for their gain... We see this happening with dispiriting regularity. Precisely because our great universities are so great and rightly prize openness, they are magnetic targets for espionage and manipulation." 

He added: "If you look at what [Vladimir] Putin's military and mercenaries are doing in Ukraine; at the Iranian regime's ongoing suppression of its own people; at the restrictions of freedoms in Hong Kong and human rights violations in Xinjiang, or China's escalatory activity around Taiwan - I don't think you want the fruits of your inspiration and perspiration to be turned to the advantage of the Russian, Iranian or Chinese governments."

 McCallum said students should not be fooled by attractive conference invitations, collaboration proposals, "donations with strings" or "jointly funded research that builds dependency". 

"These aren't hypotheticals," he said. "They're things MI5 sees in investigations week by week, and they happen in universities just like Glasgow." 

The National Protective Security Authority, which is part of MI5, will offer expert advice and training to universities, businesses and institutions to help them protect themselves.

China makes a big bet on electric vehicles with Brazil investment - Sam Cowie (Al Jazeera)

China makes a big bet on electric vehicles with Brazil investment
BYD is set to spend $600m on new complex to build electric and hybrid cars, buses and trucks, as China and Brazil grow closer.
By Sam Cowie
Al Jazeera, 20 Jul 2023

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/20/china-makes-a-big-bet-on-electric-vehicles-with-brazil-investment

Sao Paulo, Brazil – Stella Li stood in front of a packed stage, banging a brightly decorated drum to a samba-reggae rhythm.

Moments earlier, Li, global vice president of the world’s largest electronic vehicle manufacturer, BYD, had announced that the Shenzhen-headquartered Chinese company would open an industrial complex in Brazil’s northeastern state Bahia.
“Our dream is to build Bahia state as a centre of innovation and high technology,” she said at an event in early July.

BYD plans to invest 3 billion Brazilian reals ($600m) to generate more than 5,000 jobs and produce electric and hybrid cars, as well as electric buses and trucks, in Camacari near Bahia’s capital, Salvador.

The plan marks a political victory for the government of Brazilian President Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva, himself a former metalworker, who hopes to “reindustrialise Brazil” with support from China.
Last year, another Chinese manufacturer, Great Wall Motor, had announced it would invest $1.9bn in Brazil over the next decade to produce hybrid and electric cars in Sao Paulo state. It expects production to begin next year.

Western car companies like Ford and Mercedes-Benz have left Brazil in recent years after setting up there decades ago, adding to the country’s deindustrialisation woes. But Chinese carmakers are beginning to fill the gap as part of Beijing’s ambitious automaking expansion abroad.

The Chinese manufacturers’ plans carry especially strong symbolism: BYD plans to set up shop in an abandoned Ford factory, while Great Wall Motors will take over an old Mercedes-Benz factory.

Experts point to a series of benefits for Chinese car companies in Brazil, a middle-income country of 203 million people with a non-aligned foreign policy.

“There is no geopolitical tension here with China, unlike Europe, the USA or Canada,” Mauricio Santoro, a political scientist and author of Brazil-China Relations in the 21st Century, told Al Jazeera. “There is no vetoing of Chinese companies, the great example being Huawei, which operates in Brazil with total freedom.”
He said BYD’s new facilities will act as a jumping-off point to expand in the region.
“They are going to use Brazil as an export platform to other countries in South America, to countries like Argentina and Chile, which is something that other multinationals also do here,” he added.

Almost half of China’s current investments in South America are in Brazil, which offers opportunities for Chinese manufacturers, said Tulio Cariello, content and research director at the Brazil-China Business Council.

“Brazil is a country that has an emerging middle class,” he told Al Jazeera, “and it is a country where people want to have a car.”

According to Brazil’s Institute of Geography and Statistics, just under 50 percent of the country’s households had a car in 2022, compared with 92 percent in the United States.
The Chinese vehicle makers’ plans also reflect, in part, the consolidation of China’s rise in South America and perhaps the start of a new chapter of the continent’s most defining geopolitical shift this century.
China is Brazil’s top trading partner, having overtaken the United States in 2009, with nearly $151bn in trade between the two countries in 2022, according to official government data.

Now serving his first year of a historic third term, Lula re-established openly warm relations with Beijing with an April visit to China, where he met with President Xi Jinping. The visit seemed aimed at repairing a relationship previously strained by the anti-China stance of far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro.

As part of that renewed rapport, Brazil offered China concessions to attract the car manufacturer.

In return for its commitment to invest, BYD will receive a 95-percent break on Brazil’s value-added tax until 2032, no car ownership tax on electric vehicles up to 300,00 reals ($62,375), and access to the nearby Aratu Port for the import of raw materials and exports of the products it makes locally.

Brazilian authorities also promised to improve the roads to reach the port as well as considering withdrawing property taxes, dependent on talks with Camacari city hall, according to Brazil’s UOL news portal’s specialist car column.

While Brazil’s electric vehicle (EV) market is still in its nascent stages, selling just 564 units in the first quarter of 2023, Cariello said that — in the long term — Brazil would catch up with more advanced electric car markets and that the Chinese are “pioneers” to establish themselves first in the local market.

Rodrigo Zeidan, a professor of finance and economics at New York University Shanghai and at Brazil’s Dom Cabral Foundation, said China’s electric models were more suited to the budgets of middle-income countries like Brazil.

“The Western companies are building more valuable models like Tesla. The Chinese manufacturers, they produce cheaper stuff,” he told Al Jazeera. “It is a middle-income market in which consumers are not that rich, and they know this market.”

Li — the BYD global vice president — told the O Globo newspaper in early July that the company planned to bring to Brazil the Seagull compact car, its cheapest EV model. It launched in China for the equivalent of 55,000 reals ($11,450), an ideal price range given that 90 percent of Brazilians earn less than 3,500 reals ($728) a month.

There is one indication that EV-related jobs will be welcome in Brazil. In just seven days in July, BYD received 44,000 job applications for its announced 5,000 vacancies.

Zeidan warned that current infrastructure to support electric vehicles in Brazil is woefully inadequate and building charging stations for cars across the vast country “requires long-term planning”.

Chinese companies, often helped by generous state subsidies and loans, are able to work in longer time frames than competitors, which may help them in Brazil, Santoro said.

Still, he and other experts interviewed by Al Jazeera warned of significant challenges ahead, including China’s slowing economy and geopolitical tensions with other world powers, as limits to the Lula government’s hopes to “reindustrialise” Brazil.

“The rhetoric that the Chinese will somehow reindustrialise Brazil, that is an exaggeration,” he said. “No country has managed to reindustrialise.”

Zeidan also criticised the tax breaks that are being given to BYD but said Ford and other Western carmakers had been offered the same kinds of deals to entice them to do business in the country.
“Brazil has thrown a lot of money at car companies,” he said. “It’s a lot of public money given to privately owned companies.”

He said that although Brazil was a “tough” market, it is possible for car companies to make good profits.

“The question is can BYD make enough money to justify being in Brazil 30 years from now?” he said.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA

O império econômico chinês em construção: resenha de livro de Agustin Barletti

 China y su camino a la hegemonía mundial - Libro

Diario La Prensa

https://www.laprensa.com.ar/531559-China-y-su-camino-a-la-hegemonia-mundial.note.aspx

El hambre del dragón

Por Agustín Barletti

De los Cuatro Vientos. 350 páginas

“Dejad dormir al gigante. Cuando China despierte, el mundo temblará”, aseguran que dijo Napoleón hace más de dos siglos. En las últimas décadas también se habla y opina mucho acerca del gigante asiático, pero poco se sabe realmente, con datos precisos, sobre las políticas implementas para lograr el liderazgo mundial y el orden interno impuesto en esa dirección, muchas veces reñido con los derechos humanos y la democracia.

Basada en una amplia bibliografía y heterogéneas y confiables fuentes, El hambre del dragón ofrece una muy completa visión de la realidad china que incluye un acercamiento en profundidad a las principales características de aquella impronta que emana desde Pekín hacia el exterior, y también un análisis equilibrado sobre le régimen que lidera Xi Jinping desde 2013.

Su autor Agustín Barletti -escritor, periodista e historiador- sostiene que en la actualidad China tiene más de 220 proyectos en curso en los cinco continentes y que las instituciones chinas apoyan esas iniciativas con capitales por aproximadamente 300.000 millones de dólares. Los planes para expandirse a nivel mundial se realizan, en gran medida, en secreto y con el objetivo principal de logar una expansión económica pero también cultural y geopolítica. “Cuando Pekin -explica Barletti- procede como prestamista alternativo de último recurso y rescata a un país en dificultades, es común que no le exija disciplina en la política económica ni se interese por la legitimidad del gobernante en turno”. La gran duda que surge es que exige a cambio de su ayuda.

Este “peligro” que representa la “amenaza china para el mundo” se puede ver reflejado, por ejemplo, en el continente africano que Barletti define como “el laboratorio donde China ensayó su modelo colonizador”. Un dato concreto: la deuda pública africana no para de crecer. Desde el año 2000, pasó del 35% del PBI al 50% y China es por lejos el principal acreedor.

En esta carrera, el gigante asiático luego de consolidar su influencia en el continente africano, apuntó a extender su dominio en América Latina. Hoy, es el segundo mayor destinatario de inversión directa china con más de 2.700 empresas propias operando en la región, especialmente en infraestructura de transporte y energía. Los recursos naturales son parte esencial dentro de los objetivos orientales en Sudamérica.

La investigación también desarrolla los intentos de Occidente (Estados Unidos y sus aliados) para ponerle un freno a esta expansión, marco en el que la llamada “guerra fría tecnológica” se lleva adelante durante los últimos años. Incluido los planes de conquista del espacio exterior. Un ejemplo claro sobre este tema fue el acuerdo firmado en 2014 con la Argentina para la construcción de una estación espacial en la provincia de Neuquén.

En otra parte de su trabajo, destaca Barletti -especialista en transporte marítimo y logística- que casi el 30% de todo el tráfico mundial de contenedores registrado en 2022 recaló en algún momento en uno de los puertos operados total o parcialmente por empresas con sede en Pekín, Shanghai o Hong Kong.

También despliega esta investigación, de manera amplia, temas como la corrupción de ciertas empresas chinas, la organización de la pesca ilegal, la violación de los derechos humanos llevada adelante por el régimen de Xi Jinping, la censura y vigilancia que realizan el Partido Comunista a sus ciudadanos, las quejas internacionales al respecto y el rechazo y respuesta desmedidas del régimen.

Todas estas características que hacen a la realidad de China, asegura Barletti, persiguen un doble objetivo: “la recuperación de su lugar histórico para cumplir con el mandato impuesto por un nacionalismo alimentado con las heridas del pasado y la grandeza abortada. Y, en segundo lugar, desafiar la supremacía mundial de occidente que tiene principalmente Estados Unidos”.

Concluye el autor: “Claramente su ambición hegemónica busca que ningún otro país pueda emprender nada sin antes tener en cuenta los intereses chinos”.

Más allá de las opiniones, los datos y números concretos que ofrece, esta investigación invita a reflexionar sobre las políticas chinas que durante los últimos años han tenido y siguen teniendo una cercanía y preocupante influencia en nuestro país.

Diplomacia de Lula: Ucrânia, China, Cúpula sul-americana, Maduro - Paulo Roberto de Almeida

 Diplomacia de Lula: Ucrânia, China, Cúpula sul-americana, Maduro  

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Diplomata, professor

(www.pralmeida.org; diplomatizzando.blogspot.com). 

Respostas a questões de corresponde de agência estrangeira em Brasília.  

 

1) Rússia/Ucrânia: Brasil condenou a invasão e procura plano de paz, mas Lula acusou EUA e Europa de "alentar" a guerra, recebeu o chanceler russo, não se encontrou com Zelensky. Como analisa a postura acidentada ou incômoda do Lula adiante a guerra? Qual são os erros e acertos do Lula?

PRA: É preciso considerar que Lula, como líder do Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), tem conexões, talvez vínculos de solidariedade não de todo explicados, com Cuba e com o Partido Comunista Cubano, desde praticamente sua origem, em 1980 (pelo perfil de boa parte de seus militantes e quadros profissionais, todos eles identificados com o socialismo esquerdista latino-americano, fortemente americano); durante seu governo, Lula forjou, além dos laços tradicionais com a esquerda latino-americana – o PT é um dos organizadores do Foro de São Paulo, criado em 1990, quando da implosão do socialismo e da “orfandade” de Cuba, que ficou sem os subsídios soviéticos –, uma cooperação e alianças estratégicas com outros países do chamado Sul Global, mas sobretudo com as duas grandes autocracias, Rússia e China, especialmente do ponto de vista do antiamericanismo. Quando se desempenhou à frente dos seus dois primeiros mandatos (2003-2010), sua diplomacia foi fortemente marcada pela criação do IBAS (Índia, Brasil, África do Sul, logo em 2003) e, sobretudo, a partir de 2006, oficializada em 2009, a criação do BRIC (Brasil, Rússia, Índia e China), ampliado em 2011 para incluir a África do Sul, constituindo-se no BRICS. 

A resposta mais simples à pergunta acima é, portanto, esta: Lula adotou essa postura por antiamericanismo tradicional do PT e, mais especialmente, pela aliança com a duas grandes autocracias da Eurásia, reforçada nos três primeiros mandatos do PT e retomada desde seu terceiro mandato a partir desde ano de 2023. Ademais, convidado pelo G7 de Hiroshima, Lula esperava ser recebido como o grande líder dessa entidade fantasmagórica que responde pelo nome de Sul Global; ele foi completamente ofuscado pela presença de Zelensky, daí explicando-se seu incômodo em encontrar com o presidente ucraniano, que se apresentou como grande estadista de estatura mundial, sendo Lula relegado a segundo plano. Existe, também, portanto, um elemento de ciúme, e até de raiva, na atitude de Lula.

 

2) EUA/China: Ao viajar a Washington e Pequim ao início do governo, Lula sinalizou querer manter um balanço entre as potências. Conseguiu?

PRA: A busca de autonomia em sua política externa é uma velha tradição da diplomacia brasileira, e atravessou décadas, em governos autoritários e democráticos, civis ou militares. Houve uma conjuntura de alinhamento com os EUA durante a primeira Guerra Fria, quando os EUA eram a única potência dispondo de recursos financeiros, tecnológicos, comerciais e de cooperação para formação de capital humano, positivos para o crescimento e o desenvolvimento do Brasil. Desde essa época, o mundo se transformou e se diversificou. Depois de 150 anos de relação privilegiada com Washington, a China superou os EUA no plano do comércio bilateral, a partir de 2009. Mas, nos últimos anos, o turnover comercial Brasil-China representa mais do que o dobro do comércio somado dos dois outros primeiros parceiros com o Brasil, EUA e UE. O superávit de mais de 40 bilhões de dólares no comércio com a China é absolutamente essencial para garantir o equilíbrio das transações correntes do Brasil, que sem isso enfrentaria sérios problemas no equilíbrio do balanço de pagamentos.

Mas, esse equilíbrio entre as duas grandes potências é uma alegação quase sem fundamentos, pois que o PT e Lula já aderiram a essa ideia artificial de criação de uma “nova ordem global”, alternativa à ordem de Bretton Woods, desprezada como “ocidental”. As declarações de Lula em diversas ocasiões, mas especialmente em Beijing, deixaram muito claro sua definição de alinhamento com a China e com essa ideia da nova ordem global, também justificada pela busca de uma “multipolaridade” indefinida. Ou seja, o equilíbrio entre as duas grandes potências não possui o mesmo significado no plano prático, embora seja ainda a postura oficial do Itamaraty e a da maioria da opinião pública brasileira. 

 

3) Cúpula Sul-americana: Lula conseguiu reunir os líderes da América do Sul pela primeira vez em quase uma década, mas sua visão sobre Venezuela foi motivo de divisão. Uma semana depois, qual foi a importância da cúpula dos presidentes?

PRA: Lula tenta repetir o que tinha sido feito pelo presidente Fernando Henrique Cardoso, que reuniu, efetivamente pela primeira vez, os dirigentes da América do Sul, em 2000, com o objetivo de propiciar a integração física do continente (infraestrutura, energia, comunicações, etc.), por meio da IIRSA (Iniciativa de Integração Regional Sul-Americana). Esse grande objetivo foi deliberadamente sabotado pelo governo Lula, a partir de 2003, que se empenhou em criar, primeiro a Comunidade Sul-Americana de Nações (em 2004, numa reunião em Lima), iniciativa sabotada por Hugo Chávez, depois transformada na Unasul, que foi mais ou menos controlada pelos bolivarianos, com uma suntuosa sede em Quito, na época de Ruben Correa, construída com os petrodólares chavistas. A intenção, tanto de Lula quanto de Chávez, era claramente antiamericana, mas no plano da integração física ou comercial pouco se avançou na primeira década do século. 

O ativismo prático da diplomacia brasileira foi bem-sucedido, pois que se conseguiu mobilizar todos os dirigentes – com exceção do Peru, que ainda assim enviou um representante diplomático, seu chanceler –, mas as declarações de Lula, um dia antes do encontro de cúpula foram desastrosas, assim como o fato dele ter concedido honras de visita de Estado ao ditador venezuelano. Lula enfrentou desacordos com praticamente todos os demais dirigentes e foi expressamente desautorizado pelos presidentes do Uruguai e do Chile, que disseram ser afrontoso considerar a Venezuela uma democracia, como fez Lula da forma mais patética possível. Tanto foi assim que os presidentes não aprovaram nada de muito significativo, apenas repassando o dever de estabelecer novos mecanismos de integração – que não serão, de nenhuma forma, a repetição da Unasul, como pretendia Lula – a uma comissão de chanceleres (na verdade será de meros assessores diplomáticos), que terá um prazo de seis meses para se pronunciar. Ou seja, com suas declarações infelizes, Lula retirou qualquer evidência de sucesso em sua iniciativa de reunião de cúpula. Esta, como outras iniciativas – como uma próxima reunião de países amazônicos – respondem muito mais a um desejo megalomaníaco de Lula de ser considerado um grande líder regional e mundial, do que a um planejamento técnico bem concebido para fazer avançar um difícil processo de integração, numa fase de clara fragmentação do continente. 

 

4) Maduro: Como pode se explicar que, mesmo se o Tribunal Penal Internacional abriu um inquérito sobre violações de direitos humanos na Venezuela e líderes de esquerda como Boric tem críticas fortes contra Maduro, Lula defende o presidente venezuelano sem expressar crítica nenhuma sobre seu governo? Lula errou ao defender a Maduro? Por que? A liderança regional do Lula sofreu prejuízo?

PRA: Lula tem esses vínculos fortes com as ditaduras de esquerda, por razões ainda não de todo claras, mas que se vinculam às origens e aos compromissos do PT, e não possui nenhum espírito crítico ao defender esses ditadores – Chávez, Maduro, Ortega, e outros, no continente africano –, assim como as duas grandes autocracias da Eurásia, sendo que uma delas é claramente de direita (mas antiamericana, que é o que basta). Uma outra razão é a perspectiva de grandes negócios com todas essas ditaduras, muitos deles mesclados a transações paralelas, talvez muito lucrativas, tanto oficialmente, quanto oficiosamente, com possíveis comissões e subornos que já foram revelados por investigações posteriores. Negócios legais e pouco claros entre o Brasil e a Venezuela, na época de Lula 1 e 2 e de Chávez, continuados sob Maduro, podem ter liberados milhões de dólares para as duas partes, como evidenciado no Brasil e em outros países, inclusive africanos, em especial com Cuba e Venezuela, as duas ditaduras mais impenetráveis da região. A eleição de Bolsonaro em 2018 pode ser explicada pela enorme rejeição por parte da classe média brasileira, em relação à imensa corrupção dos anos PT na presidência da República. 

Em todos esses episódios, Lula foi movido por pouca, ou nenhuma ideologia, mas pela perspectiva de negócios vantajosos, no plano do Estado, do setor privado e do ponto de vista do partido, embora não se possa descartar o esquerdismo anacrônico do PT e de muitos dos esquerdistas que o sustentam politicamente. Esse viés esquerdista pró-ditatorial de Lula também pode ter contribuído para erodir parte de sua pretensão a tornar-se um líder regional sul-americano, agora sem a competição de Chávez e de Kirchner, como era o caso antes.

 

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Brasília, 4409: 5 junho 2023, 4 p.

 

O perigo não está nos outros, e sim em nós mesmos: - Paulo Roberto de Almeida

 O perigo não está nos outros, e sim em nós mesmos

Paulo Roberto de Almeida 

As disfuncionalidades da democracia americana são evidentes, e isso é muito mais grave do que o desafio chinês; os EUA podem ficar paralisados por suas dissensões internas e gastos excessivos. 

A China também tem seus problemas, mas por enquanto o mandarinato tem atuado de forma bastante eficiente: se o novo imperador não exagerar no centralismo autoritário, vamos ter, realmente, um novo hegemon durante algum tempo, até que a entropia produza efeitos negativos.

A democracia brasileira também é muito  disfuncional, mas sua natureza é diversa da americana: não temos educação de qualidade suficiente para melhorar a produtividade do capital humano da massa da população, apenas ilhas de excelência contidas em seu dinamismo pela mediocridade geral do estamento político e pela extorsão sobre os recursos públicos dos altos mandarins do Estado, começando pelos aristocratas do Judiciário.

Como viram, não sou sartriano no meu ceticismo sadio: o inferno não são os outros. 

No longo prazo, a racionalidade vai predominar, mas a desigualdade de oportunidades continuará sendo o traço marcante do processo civilizatório, entre as nações e dentro dos Estados.

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Brasília, 11/06/2023

Russia, China seek world power 'rebalancing' with G7-alternative: 'indispensable mechanism' - Peter Aitken (Fox News)

Russia, China seek world power 'rebalancing' with G7-alternative: 'indispensable mechanism'

BRICS has recently positioned itself as a serious alternative to the G7's influence

By Peter Aitken | Fox News, June 2, 2023

https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-china-seek-world-power-rebalancing-g7-alternative-indispensable-mechanism 

Foreign ministers of the nations comprising a China and Russia-led economic bloc have made clear that they intend to rebalance global power, claiming to aim for a "multipolar" dynamic even as they work to place themselves at the center. 

"At the heart of the problems we face is economic concentration that leaves too many nations at the mercy of too few," Indian Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said following the meeting of the BRICS countries. 

Jaishankar stressed that the five nations comprising the group needed to "send out a strong message that the world is multipolar, that it is rebalancing and that old ways cannot address new situations." 

BRICS, named for its member states of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, met this week in Cape Town. The discussions focused on potential expansion of membership and potential for an alternative currency that could "ensure that we do not become victim to sanctions that have a secondary effect on countries" following sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. 

Brazil's Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira, South Africa's Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attend a press conference as BRICS foreign ministers meet in Cape Town, South Africa, June 1, 2023.  (Reuters/Nic Bothma)

Chinese Vice Minister Ma Zhaoxu voiced strong support for more countries joining the bloc to help expand its influence and increase its power. 

"I believe the enlargement of BRICS will be beneficial to the BRICS countries," he said, claiming the group was "inclusive … in sharp contrast to some countries’ small circle." Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that some dozen or so nations had shown interest in joining, and South Africa’s BRICS ambassador Anil Sooklal said that countries from Europe have asked about joining, according to South African outlet News 24. 

The list of potential new members allegedly includes Iran and Saudi Arabia, both of whom had representatives in Cape Town to participate in the BRICS meeting. Other hopeful candidates include Venezuela, Argentina, Algeria and the United Arab Emirates. 

Foreign ministers of BRICS nations pose for a family photo with representatives from Africa and the global South during a summit in Cape Town, South Africa, June 2, 2023.  (Russian Foreign Ministry/Handout via Reuters)

BRICS has recently emerged as an alternative to the G7, which met last month in Japan for its annual summit. The group started off as a loose conglomerate, but China and Russia have given it a more concrete form in the past few years as they look to re-focus world power dynamics.

Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira called the group an "indispensable mechanism" to balance against the Western influence of the G7, which is made up of the U.S., Japan, Canada, Britain, France, Italy and Germany.    

One issue that overshadowed the meeting remained the question of whether South Africa would be obliged to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin. The International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest in relation to war crimes, specifically the abduction of children, allegedly committed in Ukraine. 

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud meet on the sidelines of a meeting of foreign ministers from the BRICS countries, in Cape Town, South Africa June 1, 2023.  (Russian Foreign Ministry/Handout via Reuters)

South Africa, as a signatory of the 1998 Rome Statute, would likely be compelled to arrest Putin if he attended this or any future meetings within its borders, but officials have looked at obtaining diplomatic immunity for Putin in order to skirt the issue. 

"Russia attaches enormous importance to the development of this format of integration. And Russia will take part in this summit at the proper level," Russian press secretary Dmitry Peskov said during a recent press conference. "Of course, we count as a bare minimum on partner countries in such an important format not being guided by such illegal decisions."

A statement by Clayson Monyela, head of South Africa's public diplomacy, on Tuesday said it was "standard" practice for Cape Town and "all countries" to issue immunity for officials attending international conferences "irrespective of the level of participation."

Fox News Digital’s Caitlin McFall and Reuters contributed to this report.

A China continua incrementando seu apoio à Rússia - Foreign Policy

 Deep Pockets, Deep Friendship

Foreign Policy, May 24, 2023

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 24.Alexander Astafyev/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images

Russia and China signed a series of bilateral agreements on Wednesday that strengthen the two countries’ economic ties. The deals come at a time when Moscow is increasingly looking to Beijing for economic and political support to offset the impact of Western sanctions and international isolation over the war in Ukraine.

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed the agreements—which involve deepening investment in trade services, promoting Russian agricultural exports to China, and furthering sports cooperation—during a visit to Beijing, where he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Chinese Premier Li Qiang. It is the highest-profile trip to China by a Russian official since the beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine, though Xi visited Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he called his “dear friend,” in Moscow this past March. Li Hui, China’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, is set to visit Russia on Friday.

The two countries have increased trade since the start of the war. The first three months of this year saw trade between Russia and China reach $53.8 billion, a nearly 40 percent increase from the same period the year prior.

Meanwhile, a new Gallup poll found that, since the war started, Russia’s neighbors—including those traditionally favorable to it—have taken on a dimmer view of the country’s leadership. According to Gallup, “In four countries historically sympathetic to Russian leadership—Armenia, Moldova, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan—the percentage who disapprove now exceeds the percentage who approve.” Disapproval also rose in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Last week, China—not Russia—held a Central Asia summit, where Xi unveiled plans for development and pledged a “new blueprint” for the region.

More than half of world's population live in China, India and surrounding countries

Not so suprising 

More people live inside this circle than outside it.

Valerie Pieris’ famous map: via Noah Smith 

In 2015, the circle was tested by Danny Quah, who verified the claim but moved the circle slightly to exclude most of Japan, and used a globe model rather than a map projection as well as more specific calculations. He calculated that, as of 2015, half of the world's population lived within a 3,300-kilometer (2,050 mi) radius of the city of Mong Khet in Myanmar. 

And Quah did not shrink from the political implication. 

From Adam Tooze's ChartBook

April 30, 2023