O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

Mostrando postagens com marcador Harvard Belfer Center. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador Harvard Belfer Center. Mostrar todas as postagens

domingo, 21 de agosto de 2022

Security Threat: China's Interest in US Agriculture - Judith Bergman (Harvard Belfer Center)

 A Guerra Fria econômica já começou, e a China está fazendo aquilo que os EUA sempre fizeram no seu processo de construção do poderio industrial: copiar patentes estrangeiras, imitar os países avançados, até fazer espionagem industrial, engenharia reversa, etc. 

Security Threat: China's Interest in US Agriculture

by Judith Bergman

Harvard Belfer Center, August 19, 2022

    The more US agricultural technology China acquires, especially through theft, in order to become dominant in the agritech field, the worse the US will fare when it comes to selling its own technology, whether to China or third countries.

    The specific goal is for China to be able to satisfy 95% of its demand for agricultural machinery with equipment that is manufactured in China. According to the USCC report, those policies, underpinned in part by technological theft, have negatively affected US exports to China of agricultural equipment....

    China has been expanding its ownership of US land over the past decade from 13,720 acres in 2010 to 352,140 acres in 2020, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

    China's largest purchase in the US agriculture sector so far has been Smithfield Foods in 2013, the largest pork producer in the US. China's WH Group -- a state-owned company, which began as a meatpacking business in China -- owns it today. At the time of the sale, Smithfield had 25 U.S. plants, 460 farms, and contracts with 2,100 producers in 12 states and the ownership of Smithfield accounted for more than 146,000 acres of US land.

    "While China's main interest in obtaining GM seeds from the United States is in improving its crop yields, the potential weaponization of agricultural IP is possible," the USSC warned. "... Similar to hacking a computer code, Beijing could easily hack the code or DNA of U.S. GM seeds and conduct biowarfare by creating some type of blight that could destroy U.S. crops... a virus or fungus engineered to kill a GM plant could wipe out an entire crop..." — U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Staff Research Report, May 26, 2022.

The more US agricultural technology China acquires, especially through theft, in order to become dominant in the agritech field, the worse the US will fare when it comes to selling its own technology, whether to China or third countries. (Image source: iStock)

The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) recently warned that China's interest in the agriculture of the United States poses both a serious economic challenge and a security risk to the United States.

China sits on 7-9% percent of the world's arable land, 294 million acres, but is home to nearly 20% (1.4 billion in 2020) of the global population (nearly 8 billion in 2022). By comparison, the US has more than 375 million acres of arable land and a population of 329.5 million.

China has sought to resolve its dilemma of achieving food security by buying up farmland and agricultural businesses abroad on a huge scale, including in the United States, and by seeking to advance its own agricultural technology, including through theft of US agricultural technology.

"The Chinese government's domestic efforts, however, are not enough to solve China's problems, "the USSC report noted.

    "Recognizing its challenges, China has also gone abroad to address its needs through investments and acquisitions of farmland, animal husbandry, agricultural equipment, and intellectual property (IP), particularly of GM [genetically modified] seeds. The United States is a global leader in all of these fields, making it a prime trading partner and often a target of China's efforts to strengthen its agriculture sector and food security, sometimes through ILLICIT MEANS (1). These efforts present several risks to U.S. economic and national security. Chinese companies' acquisition of hog herds in the United States may save China money and enhance its domestic capacity; however, this could also reduce China's need for U.S.-sourced production and redistributes the environmental effects of hog waste to U.S. communities. If further consolidations and Chinese investments in U.S. agricultural assets take place, China may have undue leverage over U.S. supply chains. China's access to U.S. agricultural IP may also erode U.S. competitiveness in agriculture technology that supports food production. Additionally, China's illicit acquisitions of GM seeds provides a jumpstart to China's own development of such seeds, deprives U.S. companies of revenue, and offers an opportunity to discover vulnerabilities in U.S. crops."

The more US agricultural technology China acquires, especially through theft, in order to become dominant in the agritech field, the worse the US will fare when it comes to selling its own technology, whether to China or third countries. One of the focus areas of the Made in China 2025 plan to become a world leader in technology and high-tech manufacturing is agricultural machinery such as high-end tractors and harvesters. The specific goal is for China to be able to satisfy 95% of its demand for agricultural machinery with equipment that is manufactured in China. According to the USCC report, those policies, underpinned in part by technological theft, have negatively affected US exports to China of agricultural equipment.

"In 2013, U.S. agricultural equipment sent to China totaled nearly $27 million," the USSC found.

    "In 2015, the year the Made in China 2025 policy was introduced, exports were at about $16 million and have since dropped to around $9 million in 2021." This has serious implications for US competitiveness, especially because it may also affect US exports to third countries, who may now prefer to buy their agricultural equipment at a lower price from China, where labor costs are minimal.

China has been expanding its ownership of US land over the past decade from 13,720 acres in 2010 to 352,140 acres in 2020, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). China's largest purchase in the US agriculture sector so far has been Smithfield Foods in 2013, the largest pork producer in the US. China's WH Group -- a state-owned company, which began as a meatpacking business in China -- owns it today. At the time of the sale, Smithfield had 25 U.S. plants, 460 farms, and contracts with 2,100 producers in 12 states and the ownership of Smithfield accounted for more than 146,000 acres of US land.

The 352,140 acres that China owns in the US -- 192,000 of them agricultural acres, and the rest "other" land -- is a small amount compared to how much land countries like Canada and the Netherlands own in the US. Canada, for instance, owns 4.7 million acres, while the Netherlands owns 4.6 million acres. Canada and the Netherlands, however, do not constitute threats to the US, nor are they trying to dominate the world.

"The trend is what is most concerning about the almost 200,000 acres," Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) said.

    "At first, you look at China's acreage here and think it is small, but that has almost all been acquired in the past decade. You also have to couple the acreage with the fact that the CCP's stated goal is to remake the world according to their benefit. The trend is for them to continue buying our assets and it has to stop before it becomes an even bigger problem."

The Chinese have not stopped at land, but have expanded their operations to include livestock and grain.

"Chinese scientists have in certain cases chosen to simply steal U.S. agriculture IP and technology rather than try to research and develop them themselves," the USSC noted.

    "Acquiring U.S. trade secrets through agricultural espionage has become a convenient way for China to improve its agricultural output and become more competitive in global markets. China's GM crop research, including seed breeding, is still underdeveloped relative to the United States, which is the largest exporter of GM crops. The growing GM crop industry in China would greatly benefit from access to protected U.S. seed lines that take many years and resources to develop. Agricultural IP theft could enable Chinese agribusinesses to undercut U.S. competitors on international seed markets."

The USSC estimates that each inbred seed "can cost up to $30 million to $40 million in lab costs, field work, and trial and error."

One famous case of seed theft was successfully made by the FBI against Mo Hailong, a Chinese national who was sent to China by the Dabeinong (DBN) Technology Group, a company that makes feed products and is closely connected to the Chinese government. In the US, he collected thousands of inbred corn seeds from fields in Iowa and elsewhere owned by the Monsanto and DuPont Pioneer companies and then shipped the seeds back to China. As part of his operations, Hailong had also purchased two farms in Iowa and Illinois. He was sentenced to three years in prison and a fine.

"Mo Hailong stole valuable proprietary information in the form of seed corn from DuPont Pioneer and Monsanto in an effort to transport such trade secrets to China," said U.S. Attorney Kevin E. VanderSchel at the time.

    "Theft of trade secrets is a serious federal crime, as it harms victim companies that have invested millions of dollars and years of work toward the development of propriety technology. The theft of agricultural trade secrets, and other intellectual property, poses a grave threat to our national economic security."

In a more recent case from April 2022, Xiang Haitao, a Chinese national, was sentenced to 29 months in prison, three years of supervised release, and a $150,000 fine after working as a scientist at the agricultural biotechnology company Monsanto for nearly a decade. He was convicted of attempting to steal a valuable algorithm related to farming from the company and attempting to take it to China so that it could help accelerate technological advancements for the Chinese government.

"The government of China does not hesitate to go after the ingenuity that drives our economy," said Assistant Director Alan E. Kohler Jr. of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division.

    "Stealing our highly prized technology can lead to the loss of good-paying jobs here in the United States, affecting families, and sometimes entire communities. Our economic security is essential to our national security. That's why at the FBI protecting our nation's innovation is both a law enforcement and a top national security priority."

China has also made advancements in improving its livestock's genetics, simply by buying US animals. "China has purchased millions of U.S. animals as breeding stock, saving itself decades of time and resources on the advanced agricultural research that goes into improving animal health and nutritional quality..." the USSC noted.

Stealing agricultural intellectual property, however, could not only have significant negative economic consequences, but also possibly military implications in the form of bio-warfare. "While China's main interest in obtaining GM seeds from the United States is in improving its crop yields, the potential weaponization of agricultural IP is possible," the USSC warned.

    "...Similar to hacking a computer code, Beijing could easily hack the code or DNA of U.S. GM seeds and conduct biowarfare by creating some type of blight that could destroy U.S. crops... One vulnerability of GM seeds is their limited genetic variation. Consequently, a virus or fungus engineered to kill a GM plant could wipe out an entire crop with no genetic variation to mitigate the losses. In a natural crop, a variety of DNA traits in the field could mitigate some losses and ensure some of the plants survive the viral or fungal infection... Defensive applications of synthetic biology may also be a motivation behind China's desire to access advanced U.S. seed lines or other agricultural IP. Perhaps indicating sentiment among Chinese scientists, Jiang Gaoming, a researcher and professor at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, wrote an article on U.S. biodefense efforts, exhorting other Chinese scientists to channel their research toward China's biological defense, commenting, 'Friends, GMO experts, your wisdom should be aimed at the enemy, not your own.'"

 

Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.

 

(1)  Department of Justice

Office of Public Affairs

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Thursday, January 6, 2022

Chinese National Pleads Guilty to Economic Espionage Conspiracy

 

Xiang Haitao, 44, a Chinese national formerly residing in Chesterfield, Missouri, pleaded guilty today to conspiracy to commit economic espionage.

According to court documents, Xiang conspired to steal a trade secret from Monsanto, an international company based in St. Louis, for the purpose of benefitting a foreign government, namely the People’s Republic of China.

“Despite Xiang’s agreements to protect Monsanto’s intellectual property and repeated training on his obligations to do so, Xiang has now admitted that he stole a trade secret from Monsanto, transferred it to a memory card and attempted to take it to the People’s Republic of China for the benefit of Chinese government,” said Assistant Attorney General Matthew G. Olsen of the Justice Department’s National Security Division. “With his guilty plea, Xiang is now being held accountable for this unlawful conduct.”

“Mr. Xiang used his insider status at a major international company to steal valuable trade secrets for use in his native China,” said U.S. Attorney Sayler Fleming for the Eastern District of Missouri. “We cannot allow U.S. citizens or foreign nationals to hand sensitive business information over to competitors in other countries, and we will continue our vigorous criminal enforcement of economic espionage and trade secret laws. These crimes present a danger to the U.S. economy and jeopardize our nation’s leadership in innovation and our national security.”

“The American worker suffers when adversaries, like the Government of China, steal technology to grow their economies,” said Assistant Director Alan E. Kohler Jr. of the FBI’s Counterintelligence Division. “It’s not just military technology developed in secret labs that adversaries want; in this case, it was agricultural technology used by American farmers to improve crop yields. The FBI will continue investigating the theft of technology from American companies because economic security is national security.”

According to court documents, Xiang was employed by Monsanto and its subsidiary, The Climate Corporation, from 2008 to 2017, where he worked as an imaging scientist. Monsanto and The Climate Corporation developed a digital, online farming software platform that was used by farmers to collect, store and visualize critical agricultural field data and increase and improve agricultural productivity for farmers. A critical component to the platform was a proprietary predictive algorithm referred to as the Nutrient Optimizer. Monsanto and The Climate Corporation considered the Nutrient Optimizer a valuable trade secret and their intellectual property.

In June 2017, the day after leaving employment with Monsanto and The Climate Corporation, Xiang attempted to travel to China on a one-way airplane ticket. While he was waiting to board his flight, Federal officials conducted a search of Xiang’s person and baggage. Investigators later determined that one of Xiang’s electronic devices contained copies of the Nutrient Optimizer. Xiang continued on to China where he worked for the Chinese Academy of Science’s Institute of Soil Science. Xiang was arrested when he returned to the United States.

Xiang pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit economic espionage and is scheduled to be sentenced on April 7. He faces a maximum penalty of 15 years in prison, a potential fine of $5 million and a term of supervised release of not more than three years. A federal district court judge will determine any sentence after considering the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines and other statutory factors.

The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security Customs and Border Protection are investigating the case.

 

Assistant U.S. Attorney Matthew Drake for the Eastern District of Missouri, Senior Trial Attorney Heather Schmidt and Trial Attorney Adam Small of the National Security Division’s Counterintelligence and Export Control Section, and Senior Counsel Jeff Pearlman of the Criminal Division’s Computer Crime and Intellectual Property Section are prosecuting the case.

 

sexta-feira, 19 de agosto de 2022

China Is Winning the Economic Race with the US - Judith Bergman (Harvard Belfer Center)

 China Is Winning the Economic Race with the US – The Consequences Will Be Profound

by Judith Bergman

Harvard Belfer Center, August 17, 2022 

 

   The [Harvard Belfer Center] report, "The Great Economic Rivalry: China Vs. the US," predicts that at the current rate China will overtake the US economically within a decade.

 

   When it comes to trade, China has now displaced the US. "When this century began, China was knocking on the door of the WTO and the U.S. was the leading trading partner of most major economies. Today, China has overtaken the U.S. to become the largest trading partner for nearly every major nation... by 2018, 130 countries traded more with China than they did with the U.S....." — The Belfer Report.

 

   China's trade policies are not a matter of simply creating more wealth for China, but as with most things that China does, a way to increase China's power and other countries' dependency on it.

 

   Today, the U.S. is the world's largest debtor; China is the largest creditor.

 

   When it comes to manufacturing, China already displaced the US a decade ago.

 

   "China is now the world's largest manufacturer and exporter of scores of essential goods, including 90% of refined rare earth minerals, 80% of solar panels, 50% of computers, and 45% of electric vehicles." — The Belfer Report.

 

   Crucially, China is severely challenging the US when it comes to innovation.... In 2013, the US was the number one top innovating country, according to the Bloomberg Innovation Index, but by 2020, it was not even in the top 10, having fallen to number 11.... China's laser-like focus on frontier technologies has positioned it to dominate races like 5G and AI in the future.

 

   China is determined to see this development to its goal of becoming the dominant power in the world by 2049.

 

   What this new world economic order means for the future is probably difficult to imagine for the many who have grown up with the US as the leading world powerband the accompanying celebrated values of freedom, democracy, and capitalism, taken for granted by so many.

 

   China's economic rise and the US response -- or lack of such -- will determine the predominant values of the 21st century -- will it be China's authoritarianism and disregard for freedom, democracy, and human rights or those of the US and the West?

 

Today, the U.S. is the world's largest debtor; China is the largest creditor. When it comes to manufacturing, China already displaced the US a decade ago. China's trade policies are not a matter of simply creating more wealth for China, but as with most things that China does, a way to increase China's power and other countries' dependency on it. (Image source: iStock)

 

China has closed the gap with the U.S. "in most economic races, even overtaking it in some," according to a recent report from Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. The report, "The Great Economic Rivalry: China Vs. the US," predicts that at the current rate, China will overtake the US economically within a decade.

 

Measured by purchasing power parity (PPP) -- which compares national economies in terms of how much each nation can buy with its own currency at the prices items sell for in its market -- China has already surpassed the US to become the world's largest economy.

 

"When measured by PPP, in 2000, China's economy was36% the size of the United States,'" the report noted.

 

   "In 2020, the IMF found it was 115% the size of the U.S. economy, or one-seventh larger. While Presidents Obama, Trump, and now Biden have talked about a historic 'pivot' to Asia, the seesaw has shifted to the point that both of America’s feet are dangling entirely off the ground."

 

When it comes to trade, China has now displaced the US, according to the report:

 

   "When this century began, China was knocking on the door of the WTO and the U.S. was the leading trading partner of most major economies. Today, China has overtaken the U.S. to become the largest trading partner for nearly every major nation... by 2018, 130 countries traded more with China than they did with the U.S., and more than two-thirds of those countries traded more than twice as much with China. With the launch of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in January, China has also now surpassed the U.S. as the leader of the world's largest free trade block."

 

The RCEP consists of China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and the 10 members of ASEAN and is expected to add $500 billion to world trade by 2030.

 

China's trade policies are not a matter of simply creating more wealth for China, but as with most things that China does, a way to increase China's power and other countries' dependency on it:

 

   "As Xi Jinping explained last April, China's strategy in thickening trading relationships is not just to spur its own economic growth. It is to increase other nations' reliance on China," the Belfer center concluded. "China's goal – in Xi's words – is to tighten 'international production chains' dependence on China... Xi's strategy is working—not only with others but with the U.S. In 2021, purchases of products from China accounted for nearly half of America’s $1 trillion trade deficit. Today, the U.S. is the world’s largest debtor; China is the largest creditor. "

 

When it comes to manufacturing, China already displaced the US a decade ago:

 

   "China has created a manufacturing ecosystem that allows it to dominate the production of almost everything," the report found. "Initially a low-cost producer of inexpensive consumer goods, China became the world's largest manufacturer in 2010 and accounted for 29% of global manufacturing value added in 2019 – a 20-point increase over 2000."

 

China accounts for one-third of global manufacturing today, while the US manufactures less than one-fifth. While the US was the primary trading partner for most countries in 2001, today China holds that position. As such, China has become the crucial link in the world’s critical global supply chains:

 

   "Despite the rhetoric about decoupling, foreign economies have become more dependent on China during the coronavirus pandemic, not less," the report noted. "China's trade surplus with the world hit a record $675 billion in 2021, a 60% increase from pre-pandemic levels in 2019... China is now the world's largest manufacturer and exporter of scores of essential goods, including 90% of refined rare earth minerals, 80% of solar panels, 50% of computers, and 45% of electric vehicles."

 

China has even replaced the US as the driver of world economic growth.

 

   "Perhaps the most surprising fact for Americans who have not kept track of recent developments is that China has displaced the U.S. to become the primary engine of global growth. Since the Great Recession of 2008, approximately one-third of all growth in the world's GDP has occurred in just one country: China. Thus, when nations around the world assess their prospective growth in the year ahead, the first economy they think about is China. In sum, in the past two decades, China has joined the U.S. and the EU as the third backbone of the global economy."

 

Furthermore, in 2020, for the first time, China, not the US, was home to the largest number of the most valuable global companies on Fortune's Global 500.

 

"For the first time since the magazine began listing its Global 500 rankings, China topped the list with 124 companies—ahead of the U.S.'s 121. Twenty years ago, this list included only ten Chinese companies," the Belfer report noted.

 

Crucially, China is severely challenging the US when it comes to innovation:

 

   "The U.S. and China have been neck and neck in R&D spending since 2017, together accounting for nearly half of global R&D expenditure," the Belfer center concluded. "Measured by PPP in 2010 dollars, between 2000 and2019, U.S R&D expenditure almost doubled, growing from $360 billion to $610 billion. Chinese R&D investments, meanwhile, grew by a factor of 13, from $40 billion to $515 billion."

 

In 2013, the US was the number one top innovating country, according to the Bloomberg Innovation Index, but by 2020, it was not even in the top 10, having fallen to number 11. China still lagged behind at number 16, but, according to the report:

 

   "It is catching up. As our earlier report on the 'Great Tech Rivalry' noted, China's laser-like focus on frontier technologies has positioned it to dominate races like 5G and AI in the future. Moreover, in former Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work's apt summary, 'A lot of people still believe that all China does is steal technology and copy it. They still do that, and they're quite good at it. But also, their technological ecosystem and their innovation ecosystem is really, really good. And it’s getting better all the time."

 

While the report points out that China has not yet overtaken the US and that the dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency, accounting for 60% of foreign exchange reserves, in addition to a few other areas, it seems increasingly difficult to see how the US could possibly turn things around with the current trajectory. Especially because China is determined to see this development to its goal of becoming the dominant power in the world by 2049.

 

   "What this means for global geopolitics is profound. At the end of World War II and for the decade that followed, the U.S. accounted for roughly half of global GDP. From this position of dominance, the U.S. took the lead in... what became the global economic order. When establishing alliances like NATO... the U.S. could cover the costs without thinking about burden-sharing. But by the end of the Cold War in 1991, America's share of global GDP had shrunk to one-fifth. Today it stands at one-sixth.... China’s rise has created a new world economic order."

 

What this new world economic order means for the future is probably difficult to imagine for the many who have grown up with the US as the leading world power and the accompanying celebrated values of freedom, democracy, and capitalism, taken for granted by so many.

 

China's economic rise and the US response -- or lack of such -- will determine the predominant values of the 21st century – will it be China's authoritarianism and disregard for freedom, democracy, and human rights or those of the US and the West?

 

   Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.


segunda-feira, 30 de março de 2020

Os previsíveis imprevisíveis - Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard Belfer Center

 ANALYSIS & OPINIONS Project Syndicate

Foreseeable Unforeseeables

Mar. 27, 2020
Events like the COVID-19 pandemic, the US housing market crash of 2007-2009, and the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, are often called “black swans.” The term is meant to suggest that no one could have seen them coming. But these episodes each involved known unknowns, rather than what former US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld famously called “unknown unknowns.”
After all, in each case, knowledgeable analysts were aware not only that such a thing could happen, but also that it was likely to happen eventually. Although the precise nature and timing of these events were not predictable with high probability, the severity of the consequences was. Had policymakers considered the risks and taken more preventive steps in advance, they might have averted or mitigated disaster.
In the case of COVID-19, epidemiologists and other health experts have been warning about the danger of a viral pandemic for decades, including as recently as last year. But that has not stopped US President Donald Trump from claiming that the crisis was “unforeseen,” that it is an issue that “nobody ever thought would be a problem.” Likewise, after the attacks of September 11, 2001, President George W. Bush wrongly asserted that “There was nobody in our government, at least, and I don’t think the prior government that could envision flying airplanes into buildings on such a massive scale.”
In light of such statements, it is tempting to attribute these disasters solely to executive incompetence. But human error at the top is too facile to be a complete explanation, considering that the general public and financial markets have also often been caught by surprise. Stock markets had reached historic highs just before the 2008 financial crisis, and again before the latest crash that began in late February. In both cases, there were plenty of foreseeable tail risks that should have militated against irrational exuberance.
On these occasions, investors were not just following overly optimistic baseline forecasts. Rather, they saw essentially no risks at all. The VIX – a measure of perceived financial-market volatility (sometimes known as the “fear index”) – was near record lows in advance of both 2007-2009 and 2020.
Several factors help to explain why extreme events so often catch us by surprise. First, even technical experts can miss the big picture if they do not cast their net wide enough when analyzing the data. They sometimes look only at recent data sets, assuming that in a fast-changing world, events from 100 years ago are irrelevant. Americans often come with an additional set of blinders: an excessive focus on the United States. Giving little mind to the rest of the world is one of the perils of American exceptionalism.
​In 2006, for example, the finance whizzes who priced US mortgage-backed securities relied primarily on the recent history of US housing prices, effectively operating under the rule that housing prices never fall in nominal terms. But that rule merely reflected the fact that the analysts themselves had never witnessed housing prices falling in nominal terms simultaneously. Housing prices had indeed fallen in the US in the 1930s, and in Japan as recently as the 1990s. But those episodes did not coincide with the lived experience of US-based financial analysts.
If those analysts had only consulted a broader data set, their statistical estimates would have allowed for the probability that housing prices would eventually fall and that mortgage-backed securities would therefore crash. Financial analysts who limit their data to their own country and time period are like nineteenth-century British philosophers who concluded by induction from personal observation that all swans are white. They had never been to Australia, where black swans had been discovered in a previous century, nor had they consulted an ornithologist.
Moreover, even when experts get it right, political leaders often don’t listen. Here, the problem is that political systems tend not to respond to warnings that estimate the risk of some disaster at a seemingly low figure like 5% per year, even when the predictable costs of ignoring such probabilities are massive. The experts who had warned of a serious pandemic got the risk assessment right. So, too, did Bill Gates and many other astute observers working in sectors as far afield as public health and the movie business. But the US federal government was not prepared.
Worse, in 2018, the Trump administration eliminated the National Security Council unit that had been created by President Barack Obama to deal with the risk of pandemics; and it has regularly tried to slash the budgets of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other public-health agencies. It is little wonder that America’s handling of the pandemic – the lack of testing and the dangerous shortage of critical-care equipment and facilities – has fallen so far short of other advanced economies, not least Singapore and South Korea.
But, in addition to reducing America’s capacity to respond to pandemics, the White House simply had no plan, nor recognized that it would need one, even after it had become obvious that the coronavirus outbreak in China would spread globally. Instead, the administration dithered and diverted blame, failed to ramp up testing, and thereby kept the number of confirmed cases artificially low, perhaps to support stock prices.
As for Trump’s claim that “Nobody has ever seen anything like this before,” one need only look back four years to the deadly Ebola outbreak that killed 11,000 people. But they were far away, in West Africa. The 1918-19 influenza pandemic killed 675,000 Americans (along with some 50 million worldwide), but that was 100 years ago.
Apparently, our political leaders are impressed only when a disaster has killed a large number of citizens within their own country and within living memory. If you have never seen a black swan with your own eyes, they must not exist.
The world is now learning about pandemics the hard way. Let us hope that the price in lives is not too high – and that the right lessons are learned.

Jeffrey Frankel

  • James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth
  • Member of the Board, Belfer Center
For more information on this publication: Belfer Communications Office
For Academic Citation: Frankel, Jeffrey.“Foreseeable Unforeseeables.” Project Syndicate, March 27, 2020.

quinta-feira, 31 de outubro de 2019

O Império se inquieta e indica seus atuais "inimigos" - Novo podcast do Belfer Center da Harvard University

Quando um império sente que entrou em decadência – que é o que ocorre atualmente com os Estados Unidos, processo acelerado pela gestão extraordinariamente desastrosa do governo Trump – suas elites começam a ficar paranoicas, e passam a ver inimigos mesmo onde eles não existem, ou mesmo que existem, quando eles não têm (por enquanto) nenhuma condição de enfrentar a supremacia estratégica do império até aqui dominante.
Parece ser o caso dos representantes do mais brilhante establishment de pensamento estratégico (junto com Yale e alguns think tanks de Washington, notadamente o CSIS), o Belfer Center da Universidade de Harvard.
Ele já identificaram os seus inimigos do momento: Rússia, China e Irã.
Não creio que qualquer um desses Estados, duas grandes potências e uma potência média, queira enfrentar o império americano, mas o problema é que o império PRECISA de inimigos, do contrário como viveriam os seus militares paranoicos do Pentágono e agora, também, os novos paranoicos da academia.
Em todo caso, vamos ouvi-los.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
São Paulo, 31/10/2019

Dear Friends:
We are pleased to announce a new podcast by International Security, a quarterly journal edited and sponsored by the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School, and published by the MIT Press.
The podcast, IS: Off the Page,” will discuss recent research published in International Security, and more importantly, go beyond each article’s findings to engage in contemporary policy debate. To help move the conversation forward, each episode will feature the author of a recent IS article and 1-2 guests from the broader policy community.
This podcast, which I’m privileged to host, seeks to bridge the gap between policy-relevant academic research and the policy world itself.
We invite you to listen to our inaugural episode titled, “Weaponized Interdependence,” featuring guests Abraham Newman (Georgetown University) and Elizabeth Rosenberg (Center for a New American Security). How do sanctions work in a globalized world? When do private companies comply with state-imposed sanctions? Will American economic coercion against Russia, China, and Iran backfire? Listen to find out!
In the coming weeks, the podcast will explore issues related to Chinese policy in the South China Sea, the future of NATO, and the liberal international order. Future episodes will be released on a rolling basis and we encourage you to follow along.
Please join International Security in going “off the page”!
Sincerely,
Morgan L. Kaplan
Executive Editor, International Security
============

IS: Off the Page

Current Episode

01. "Weaponized Interdependence – Economic Networks, Sanctions, and State Coercion"

Contrary to traditional arguments that globalization and economic interdependence will lead to increasing international cooperation, this episode discusses how states can weaponize their position in global economic networks to engage in coercion.
How do sanctions work in a globalized world? When do private companies comply with state-imposed sanctions? Will American economic coercion against Russia, China, and Iran backfire? Listen to find out!
Guests:
Abraham Newman is a professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and Government Department at Georgetown University. He currently serves as the Director of the Mortara Center for International Studies.
Elizabeth Rosenberg is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Energy, Economics, and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.
International Security Article:
This episode is based on, Henry Farrell and Abraham L. Newman, “Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion,” Vol. 44, No. 1 (Summer 2019), pp. 42-79.
Additional Related Readings:
Originally aired on October 30, 2019