After Munich
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The first Munich Security Conference was held in 1963, on the initiative of Ewald Von Kleist, a member of the anti-Nazi resistance. The original purpose was to bring together Germans, Americans and other Europeans for an annual discussion of security, and an annual reinforcement of the shared transatlantic commitment to democratic values and the rule of law. Von Kleist hoped, by doing so, to prevent a return of the fascist regime he hated.
Over the years the conference grew bigger. Senator John McCain famously brought a a planeload of Americans every year - other Senators, members of Congress, journalists, security analysts. The American Vice-President and the German Chancellor usually make speeches. Foreign and defense ministers from across the NATO alliance come too. At some point it grew too big: at the height of the conference, on Saturday morning, it can be too crowded to walk across the lobby of the hotel that hosts the event.
I have been to many Munich conferences, including the remarkable one that took place in 2022, on the eve of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when everyone present vowed to help Ukraine (and yet Zelensky went home to fight alone). This one was different. Vice President JD Vance arrived intending not to express solidarity, or even to solve common problems. He wanted to blow up the transatlantic alliance, and he succeeded.
In a way, this was helpful: Vance clarified the Trump administration’s position on alliances, especially in Eurpe. It took me a few days to process what had happened, but I wrote about this dramatic shift today:
For eight decades, America’s alliances with other democracies have been the bedrock of American foreign policy, trade policy, and cultural influence. American investments in allies’ security helped keep the peace in formerly unstable parts of the world, allowing democratic societies from Germany to Japan to prosper, by preventing predatory autocracies from destroying them. We prospered too. Thanks to its allies, the U.S. obtained unprecedented political and economic influence in Europe and Asia, and unprecedented power everywhere else.
The Trump administration is now bringing the post–World War II era to an end.
Vance’s speech was followed by revelations of the extraordinary “deal” that the U.S. Treasury Secretary offered to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, a few days ago. Several people in Munich had seen it:
It calls for the U.S. to take 50 percent of all “economic value associated with resources of Ukraine,” including “mineral resources, oil and gas resources, ports, other infrastructure,” not just now but forever, as the British newspaper The Telegraphreported and others confirmed: “For all future licenses the U.S. will have a right of first refusal for the purchase of exportable minerals,” the document says.
Having offered Ukraine more or less what the Versailles Treaty offered a defeated Germany, President Trump then launched an extraordinary, dishonest attack on Zelensky. I corrected a few of his points:
No, Ukraine did not start the war; Russia launched the invasion, Russia is still attacking Ukraine, and Russia could end the war today if it stopped attacking Ukraine. No, the U.S. did not spend “$350 billion” in Ukraine. No, Volodymyr Zelensky does not have “four percent” popularity; the real number is more than 50 percent, higher than Trump’s. No, Zelensky is not a “dictator”; Ukrainians, unlike Russians, freely debate and argue about politics. But because they are under daily threat of attack, the Ukrainian government has declared martial law and postponed elections until a ceasefire. With so many people displaced and so many soldiers at the front line, Ukrainians fear an election would be dangerous, unfair, and an obvious target for Russian manipulation, as even Zelensky’s harshest critics agree.
I cannot emphasize enough the dramatic nature of this change. America has switched side, not only in Ukraine, but also more broadly in the war of ideas. Read the whole article (it’s a gift link) and my recommendations for Europe, right here:
