sábado, 14 de dezembro de 2024

Crescimento da cooperação Rússia-China - Clara Fong and Will Merrow (Foreign Affairs)

 Where the China-Russia Partnership Is Headed in Seven Charts and Maps

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose for a photo during the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, in October 2024.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose for a photo during the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, in October 2024. Maxim Shipenkov/Reuters

Beijing’s and Moscow’s relationship has strengthened militarily, economically, and diplomatically in the past two decades, demonstrating their commitment to a “no limits” partnership.

December 12, 2024 11:31 am (EST)

Over the past decade, China and Russia have deepened their diplomatic relationship despite a long and complicated history marked by both cooperation and strategic rivalry. Their partnership—the strongest it’s been in centuries—is driven largely by a common goal: to challenge the U.S.-led world order that has defined the post-World War II era.

In 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin said that their countries’ partnership had “no limits” [PDF] and vowed to deepen collaboration on various fronts. The announcement came days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Some experts question the depth of their strategic relationship, arguing that the countries’ alignment is driven by their shared hostility toward the United States rather than by any natural affinity.

This year, China and Russia will pass the seventy-fifth anniversary of their diplomatic relations. CFR’s Robert D. Blackwill and Center for a New American Security’s Richard Fontaine dive into what this will mean for U.S. foreign policy in their new Council Special Report.

The following seven visualizations highlight China and Russia’s military, economic, and diplomatic cooperation in recent years.

A map showing Russia and China noting that they share a 2,600 mile border, including a longer border in the east and a smaller border between Kazakhstan and Mongolia.

CANADA

U.S.

Moscow

RUSSIA

MONGOLIA

KAZAKHSTAN

Beijing

JAPAN

NORTH KOREA

CHINA

PAKISTAN

SOUTH KOREA

TAIWAN

INDIA

The China-Russia border 

spans 2,600 miles, including a 

longer border in the east and 

a smaller border between 

Kazakhstan and Mongolia.

Growing Military Ties

China’s and Russia’s defense ties have been cemented since 2014, the year Russia annexed Crimea. Their bilateral military exercises have also increased in frequency, scale, and complexity in the past two decades. Beijing and Moscow are jointly developing missile warning systems and boosting collaboration in space, including by integrating their satellite-based navigation systems.

More From Our Experts

Since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, China and Russia have held several joint military drills, which have taken place in Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and the Middle East. Since 2012, the two countries have performed bilateral naval simulations in geopolitically strategic seas, such as the East China Sea and Sea of Japan (often referred to as the East Sea). The seas include the Indo-Pacific first island chain, a critical formation for U.S. foreign policy that traverses the Japanese archipelago, Taiwan, and the Malay peninsula. In 2017, China’s and Russia’s militaries conducted a drill in the Baltic Sea, practicing live fire against land and air targets. 

China and Russia Joint Military Exercises
Locations of bilateral exercises from January 2022 to August 2024
A map showing China and Russia have conducted joint military exercises in many parts of the world since 2022, with the most occurring in the East China Sea and Sea of Japan (East Sea)

China-Russia border

RUSSIA

1 exercise

Baltic Sea

1 exercise

Bering Sea and

Western Pacific

3 exercises

CHINA

East China Sea

and Sea of Japan

(East Sea)

8 exercises

Arabian Sea

PACIFIC

OCEAN

1 exercise

South China Sea

INDIAN OCEAN

1 exercise

Complementary Economies

Although China’s and Russia’s bilateral trade has increased over the past twenty years, their economic partnership is highly lopsided. Russia depends far more on China than vice versa; China is currently Russia’s number-one trade partner, but Russia was only China’s sixth-largestas of 2023. However, both countries mutually benefit from their trade relationship. Russia relies on Chinese companies and banks for critical investment in its energy and telecommunications infrastructure, while China benefits from Russia’s abundance of oil and natural gas to meet its enormous energy needs. Experts call their relationship complementary economies.

More on:

China

Russia

U.S. Foreign Policy

The War in Ukraine

Russia Is More Dependent on China
Goods trade in 2022
Two pie charts showing that trade with China is 26% of Russia’s total trade, and trade with Russia is 3% of China’s total trade

Trade with China is 26% of Russia’s total trade

Russia’s

total trade:

$681B

Trade with Russia is 3% of China’s total trade

China’s

total trade:

$5.89T

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s exports have become a lifeline for the Russian economy, especially after the United States and European countries sanctioned Russian resources and froze Russian assets. In 2023, China-Russia trade reached an all-time high of $240 billion, compared to their bilateral trade of $147 billion in 2021 before the war in Ukraine. China’s exports to Russia also continue to growat an increasingly rapid pace, supporting the Russian economy, which grew by 3.6 percent in 2023.

Increased Diplomatic Cooperation

China and Russia coordinate in international institutions to expand their influence and reshape global governance in their favor. Since the founding of the Russian Federation, neither country has vetoed a UN Security Councilresolution proposed by the other. Indeed, the two frequently align in their voting patterns. They have dually vetoed sixteen Security Council resolutions, often against U.S. foreign policy interests, and Beijing has not opposed a resolution without Moscow since 1999. Of the twenty-three cases in which the Russian Federation exercised its veto power alone, China abstained twenty times.

They are also jointly expanding their global influence through newly developed “non-Western” multilateral institutions, such as the BRICS group and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). BRICS was founded in 2009 with original members Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and joined the following year by South Africa. The group has since grown to nine members, adding Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates in 2024.

BRICS communiqués offer insight into the foreign policy positions of the organization members, and their positions on Ukraine and the Gaza Strip especially resemble the preferred views of China and Russia. The same goes for SCO countries, which have supported China’s Belt and Road Initiative and have condemned Western sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

Fundamentos da Segunda Guerra Fria - Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Fundamentos da Segunda Guerra Fria

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

A ignorância econômica das esquerdas é quase incorrigivel, mas pode ser contornada, pela experiência de uma ou duas crises (como a que já ocorreu uma vez  e como a que agora está sendo montada, por exemplo, novamente no Brasil). 

A ignorância politica das direitas parece ser incorrigivel, pela teimosia que demonstram em sustentar sua dominação por meio de uma violência quase similar à inventada pelos bolcheviques (sim, Mussolini e Hitler admiravam a metodologia totalitária criada por Lênin e aperfeiçoada por Stalin).

Trump parece combinar ambas as ignorâncias: a econômica das esquerdas e a política totalitária das direitas. Certo Trump “tropical” também combina uma versão rústica das duas.

A versão contemporânea das duas ignorâncias parece ter sido encarnada por Putin-Hitler, e regionalmente por Chávez-Mussolini (continuado por Maduro).

Lula não precisa seguir nenhum dos dois, mas, se for esperto, ou bem orientado, precisa desistir da ignorância econômica de substituir o dólar por uma moeda do Brics e deixar de lado a ignorância política de aderir à ideia maluca de uma “nova ordem global multipolar” patrocinada por Putin.

Acredito que será capaz de recuar dessas maluquices de esquerda e de direita.

Paulo Roberto de Almeida 

Brasília, 14/12/2024


sexta-feira, 13 de dezembro de 2024

livro: Diplomacia: tradições, mudanças e desafios - Fernando Paulo Mello Barreto Filho (Funag)

 O Embaixador Fernando de Mello Barreto acaba de lançar o livro Diplomacia: tradições, mudanças e desafios pela Fundação Alexandre de Gusmão. A obra apresenta uma visão completa e atualizada sobre o mundo da diplomacia, desde os principais conceitos, seus fundamentos históricos até os desafios do presente e as perspectivas para o futuro.


Disponível nas versões português e inglês, o livro pode ser baixado na biblioteca digital da FUNAG: https://lnkd.in/dph95mDD

Versão em inglês: https://lnkd.in/d5mctPXa

Diplomatas intelectuais ou intelectuais diplomatas? Existem ambos… - Felipe Estre, Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Diplomatas intelectuais ou intelectuais diplomatas? Existem ambos… - Felipe Estre, Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Leio sobre a publicação de um artigo sobre o qual tenho interesse em conhecer o inteiro teor, se o seu autor me fizer o favor:

When diplomacy meets academia: diplomatic non-fiction in Brazil

Received 21 May 2024Accepted 20 Nov 2024Published online: 06 Dec 2024 (na Third World Quarterly)

Aproveito, antes de transcrever o resumo, para dizer que o livro que comecei a organizar mais de cinco anos atrás, INTELECTUAIS NA DIPLOMACIA BRASILEIRA: A CULTURA A SERVIÇO DA NAÇÃO”, deve ser proximsmente publicado pela Francisco Alves- Unifesp.

Continuando:


Abstract

This article critically examines the intersection between diplomacy and academic scholarship in Brazil, with a particular focus on the role of myths in shaping both fields. Through a mythographic approach, the study explores how foundational narratives, particularly those centred around Itamaraty and its diplomats, have influenced the epistemological boundaries of Brazilian international relations (IR). The article ­introduces the concept of ‘diplomatic non-fiction’ to categorise the intel­lectual output of diplomats, arguing that this genre occupies a distinct space between academic analysis and practitioner narratives. By analysing how diplomatic narratives have been integrated into academic discourse, often without sufficient critical scrutiny, the study highlights the need for a clearer distinction between these two forms of knowledge production. This distinction is crucial for avoiding analytical blind spots that may arise from the uncritical acceptance of diplomatic perspectives in academic research. The article concludes by advocating for a more nuanced and reflexive engagement with diplomatic contributions, aiming to enrich the field of IR by encouraging a critical approach to the interplay between diplomacy and academia.


Notes

1 ‘Itamaraty’ is the name of the building in which the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is based. For a complete analysis of the history and significance of the ‘house’ of Brazilian diplomats, see Gobo (Citation2019).

Brazilian Journal of International Politics.

Sixty Years of Brazilian Foreign Policy (1930–1960).

History of the Brazil-Nation.

History of Brazilian Foreign Policy.

Advanced Studies Course.

Alexandre de Gusmão Foundation.

8 Pinheiro and Vedoveli (Citation2012) use the term ‘intellectual as diplomat’ to reinforce that even those diplomats well known for their intellectual production are still first and foremost servants of the Foreign Ministry.

Legitimacy and Other International Issues.

10 The journal Política Externa Independente(Independent Foreign Policy) was published between 1965 and 1966. Even though it had only three issues, it condenses importance pieces about the Brazilian foreign policy of that time (Vigevani, Thomaz, and Leite Citation2016).

11 A high-quality discursion of ‘autonomy’ in Fonseca Jr’s work can be found in Pinheiro and Lima (Citation2018).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES), Brazil – Finance Code 001.

Notes on contributors

Felipe Estre

Felipe Estre holds a PhD in international relations from King’s College London and the University of São Paulo, Brazil. He is a postdoctoral researcher at the Institute of International Relations, University of Brasília, in Brasília, Brazil. He is also a researcher at the Latin American Security and Defense Network (RESDAL). His research focuses on Brazilian foreign policy, diplomacy, the New Right, and populism.

Me assusta mais a burrice que a direitice - Paulo Roberto de Almeida

 Certo personagem do ano que escoa, Tr., e seu nepote tropical não são negativos, desagradáveis em suas opiniões ou claramente prejudiciais a seus respectivos países apenas por serem de extrema-direita (uma direita doentia, raivosa, recalcada), machistas e xenófobos, mas também por serem negacionistas científicos, antivacinais extremados, armamentistas celerados e profundamente prepotentes, ou seja, autoritários vingativos. Acima de tudo, são especialmente estúpidos e violentos (e Bozo já o provou, elogiando torturadores da ditadura militar no Brasil), sendo que Tr. é um notório supremacista e inimigo dos imigrantes que construram a riqueza dos EUA (inclusive seus próprios antecessores emigrados).

Não consigo imaginar dirigentes políticos tão desprezíveis, assim como não consigo imaginar como pessoas diplomadas e bem informadas possam apoiar seres tão ignóbeis, além de absolutamente execráveis.

Pronto, lá vem censura…

Diário de Pernambuco (1825): o jornal mais antigo da AL - Gilberto Freyre

Encontrei este anúncio (abaixo reproduzido) do leilão, em 2023, de uma edição fac-similar do livro do primeiro centenário do Diário de Pernambuco (1925), quase às vésperas do seu segundo centenário, de cuja comemoração se ocupará meu colega diplomata, o historiador André Heráclio do Rego, do IHGB, do IAHG-PE e do IHG-DF, do qual também sou membro. Aguardo instruções para também oferecer minhas homenagens a esse valoroso periódico. 

Em 1925, Gilberto Freyre já estava de volta ao Brasil, depois de ter desfrutado da amizade e dos conhecimentos de seu amigo e conterrâneo, o historiador-diplomata Oliveira Lima, lecionando então na Catholic University of America (Washington, tendo doado sua imensa biblioteca para a CUA), e que colaborou nessa edição do Centenário. Agora cabe retomar o bastão, rumo ao terceiro centenário…

Paulo Roberto de Almeida 

Brasília, 13/12/2024

==========

Livro do Nordeste commemorativo do primeiro centenário do Diário de Pernambuco 1825-1925. Introdução de Mauro Motta, prefácio de Gilberto Freyre. 2ª Edição facssimilar do Arquivo Público Estadual do Recife, 1979. Aborda um grupo de estudos e de opiniões autorizadas, fixando ou comentando aspectos e tendencis da vida brasileira, em geral e da nordestina, em particular, durante o seculo vencido este anno pelo Diario de Pernambuco. Com relação ao Nordeste, constitue pequeno esforço de estimativa em torno de alguns dos valores mais característicos da região; pequeno inquérito às tendencias da vida nordestina - a ida de cinco ou seis estados cujos destinos se confundem nun só e cujas raizes se entrelaçam - durante os últimos cem anos, espécie de balanço das nossas perdas e ganhos nesse periodo. Dentre os diversos caboradores representando várias especialidades, estão Manuel Bandeira e Gilberto Freyre. Grande parte das ilustrações são de M. Bandeira, pintor e ilustrador pernambucano. Sumário completo, com autoria de cada artigo, via foto. Exemplar em grande formato; profusamente ilustrado. Brochura com 192p + LXXIII folhas de propagandas ao final do livro. Exemplar firme, com carimbo "com os cumprimetos do Arquivo Público Estadual" em duas folhas; Lombada com perdas da parte inferior e superior, a mesma área que recebeu auxílio de fita durex.

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Após Lula em Washington, Trump visita a China, e encontro reforça papel do Brasil com potências - Giovana Cardoso (R7); subsídios Paulo Roberto de Almeida

  Matéria para a qual ofereci alguns subsídios: Após Lula em Washington, Trump visita a China, e encontro reforça papel do Brasil com potênc...