O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

terça-feira, 21 de fevereiro de 2023

Guerra de agressão da Rússia contra a Ucrania: os primeiros dois meses da guerra em 2022 - John Follain (Bloomberg)

 

Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding

Romania's Aurescu: Power of Russia Cannot Match NATO
What Are War Crimes?
Updated on

Sign up here to get the latest updates on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. You can also follow us on Telegram here.

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched Europe’s biggest military assault since World War II with his Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, killing thousands of people, driving millions more from their homes, shaking the post-Cold War geopolitical order and roiling global markets.

After initially losing territory, Ukraine’s over-matched military unexpectedly fought Russian forces to a standstill in the north, prompting the Kremlin to refocus its attack on the eastern Donbas region. Ukraine has now called on its allies to help it re-arm and prepare for what may stretch into a months- or years-long war.

Here’s a timeline of the main events so far.

Feb. 24

Russia launches its attack from three directions: Belarus in the north, the Donbas region in the east, and from Crimea, which Putin seized in 2014, in the south. The U.S. and European Union announce sanctions targeting Russia’s financial sector, technology imports and oligarchs. Russian stocks and the ruble plunge.

relates to Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding
CCTV footage shows Russian military vehicles passing the Armyansk checkpoint on the Ukraine-Crimea border on Feb. 24.
Source: Ukrainian Border Service

Feb. 25

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy rejects calls to flee Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, says his forces are fighting back, and calls for international support and for weapons. The EU imposes sanctions on Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

relates to Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding
Zelenskiy hosts a news conference in Kyiv on March 3.
Photographer: Sergei Supinsky/AFP/Getty Images

Feb. 27

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces plans for a massive boost in defense spending in a historic policy shift. Germany will channel 100 billion euros to modernize the military and meet the NATO spending target of 2% of gross domestic product on defense by 2024.

Feb. 28

Ukraine applies for EU membership. Accession to the bloc is a long and arduous process, which requires the candidate to adopt established EU law and enact reforms, including to its judicial and economic systems. The move also requires the unanimous approval of all EU members.

relates to Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen applauds Zelenskiy during a video address on March 1.
Source: European Commission

March 1

Russian forces begin the siege of Mariupol, a port city with about 450,000 residents on the Sea of Azov.

March 2

The EU excludes seven Russian banks from the SWIFT international payments system and suspends broadcasting by media outlets Russia Today and Sputnik. Officials carve up the EU units of Russia’s largest lender, Sberbank, after sanctions prompt a run on deposits.

relates to Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding
A bright flaring object lands at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station in Enerhodar, on March 4.
Source: Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

March 4

Russian forces occupy the site of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, in an attack that Ukrainian officials say ignited a fire and Lithuania’s president calls “nuclear terrorism.” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg rejects calls from Zelenskiy to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, saying it would risk “a full-fledged war in Europe.” The number of refugees displaced inside and outside Ukraine surpasses a million.

relates to Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding
A Ukrainian woman carries a child across the border to Siret, Romania, in March.
Photographer: Andrei Pungovschi/Bloomberg

March 8

The U.K. says it will ban all imports of Russian oil, a measure taken in concert with the U.S.

Russia-Turkiye-Ukraine tripartite Foreign Ministers meeting in Antalya
Sergei Lavrov, second left, and Dmytro Kuleba, second right, hold face-to-face talks in Antalya, Turkey, on March 10.
Photographer: Cem Ozdel/Anadolu via Getty Images

March 10

The first high-level talks between Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Russia’s Lavrov fail to make progress, with Kuleba saying the Kremlin is demanding that Kyiv surrender. A six-ton unmanned, Soviet-made reconnaissance drone streaks across three NATO countries from Ukraine to crash in the Croatian capital Zagreb, raising awkward questionsabout the alliance’s readiness.

relates to Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding

The U.K. also freezes the assets of Chelsea Football Club owner Roman Abramovich as the EU approves sanctions against more wealthy Russians and more than 140 Russian lawmakers. The ruble hits a record low of almost 122 per dollar as economists predict a steep recession in the Russian economy. 

Russian Air Strikes Hit Military Training Site West Of Lviv
A wounded man at a hospital near the Yavoriv military complex following a Russian air strike, on March 13.
Photographer: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

March 13

Russian missiles hit a Ukrainian military training facility that had been used by NATO forces before the invasion. The attack near the western city of Lviv close to the Polish frontier killed 35 and wounded 134, and raised concern the war could spill over Ukraine’s borders.

relates to Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding
Emergency services and volunteers carry an injured pregnant woman from a maternity hospital in Mariupol, Ukraine, on March 9.
Photographer: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Photo

March 15

Russian troops take over the largest hospital in Mariupol, taking more than 400 patients and medical staff hostage after targeting it with air strikes. That followed a March 9 strike on a children’s hospital that Ukrainian officials said killed pregnant women and newborns. The EU bans the sale to Russia of luxury goods and the purchase of many Russian steel and iron products, as well as targeting more oligarchs. Zelenskiy reiterates that Ukraine won’t push for NATO membership. 

Read More: Tracking the Sanctions Imposed on Russia Over Ukraine Invasion

March 16

About 300 people are killed by a Russian air strikeon the Mariupol Drama Theater, according to Ukrainian authorities. It was marked by the word “CHILDREN” in huge white letters to ward against an attack.   

relates to Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding
The destroyed Mariupol Drama Theater.
Photographer: Alexei Alexandrov/AP Photo

March 18

Fears of a bond default by Russia ease after $117 million in interest payments start to reach international investors.

March 24

Russian bond, ruble and stocks trading resumesimultaneously for the first time in nearly a month, even as the Kremlin maintains strict capital controls on the currency.

Read More: Panicked Russians Don’t Buy Official Advice That Economy Is Fine

Heading West

About 2.3 million barrels a day of Russian crude heads west through a network of pipelines and ports

Sources: Bloomberg; AW Consulting

March 25

Germany’s government announces plans to stopalmost all Russian oil imports this year and broadly wean itself off of the country’s gas by mid-2024. Berlin repeats that Germany won’t back an immediate embargo on Russian energy, citing the cost to business and households and resisting pressure from Ukrainian officials who say fossil fuel purchases are helping fund Putin’s war.

relates to Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding
A destroyed Russian tank in Lukianivka, Kyiv.
Photographer: Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP/Getty Images

March 29

After Ukrainian forces halt Russia’s advance toward Kyiv, inflicting thousands of casualties and destroying hundreds of aircraft, armored vehicles, and other weapons, the Kremlin says it will sharply cut military operations near the capital and the northern city of Chernihiv. In talks in Turkey, a Ukrainian negotiator said his country is seeking international security guarantees for territory that doesn’t include the occupied areas of Donbas and Crimea. 

April 1

Russia pulls back its forces from the decommissioned nuclear power plant in Chernobyland accuses Ukraine of raising radiation exposure risks. Kyiv blames Russia, and Ukraine’s state power company says Moscow’s forces received “significant doses” of radiation after digging trenches at the highly contaminated site.  

relates to Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding
The Chernobyl nuclear power plant after Russia withdrew its forces from the area, on April 5.
Photographer: Oleksandr Ratushniak/AP Photo

April 3

Evidence of mass killings and other atrocities surfaces after Russian troops withdraw from Bucha and other areas around Kyiv. The EU condemns what it says may be war crimes and begins work on new sanctions. U.S. President Joe Biden says Putin could face trial at an international tribunal and vows additional penalties as well. The Kremlin has repeatedly denied targeting civilians and has blamed the West for staging the attacks, without providing strong evidence for its claims.

relates to Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding
Bodies retrieved by municipal workers at a cemetery in Bucha, Ukraine, on April 7.
Photographer: Vadim Ghirda/AP Photo

April 6

The U.S., EU and Group of Seven coordinate on new sanctions on Russia, including a U.S. ban on investment and an EU ban on coal imports.

relates to Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding

Despite the penalties, the ruble returns to levels from before the invasion, propped up by capital controls and incoming hard-currency income from energy exports. Russia also slips closer to technical default after foreign banks declined to process about $650 million of dollar payments on its bonds. 

relates to Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding
A slide is shared during Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s address to the UN Security Council on April 5.
Photographer: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

April 7

The United Nations General Assembly votes to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council over its conduct in Ukraine.

April 8

At least 52 people were killed and more than 100 wounded when at least one Russian cruise missile carrying cluster munitions hit the main train station in the eastern city of Kramatorsk, Ukrainian officials said. The attack on the main hub to evacuate civilians from an expected Russian offensive in Donbas drew condemnation from Western officials and calls for tighter sanctions.

relates to Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding
Covered bodies following a Russian rocket attack in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on April 8.
Photographer: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images

April 10

Ukraine is pursuing about 5,600 cases of war crimes linked to Russia’s invasion, Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova says, calling Putin “the main war criminal of the 21st century.” Around this time Russia appoints General Alexander Dvornikov, who oversaw Moscow’s forces in Syria in 2015 and 2016, as top commander for the war. He led the southern prong of the invasion, which had more success than the northern thrust, and will now manage the Kremlin’s shift of focus to the eastern Donbas region.

April 12

Putin characterizes peace talks with Ukraine as “at a dead end,” says the invasion is proceeding “according to plan” and vows to continue, as Kyiv accuses Moscow of sabotaging peace talks. 

Read More: Russian Troops Risk Repeating Blunders If They Try for May 9 Win

April 13

Biden accuses Putin for the first time of committing “genocide” in Ukraine. Russian forces also face hard-to-prove allegations that they used a poisonous substance in the besieged city of Mariupol which, if confirmed as a chemical weapon, could further escalate the war. Finland starts the process expected to lead to a bid for it to join NATO, while the U.S. and EU separately agree to pay for additional arms for Ukraine worth more than a combined $1.3 billion, including heavy weapons. 

relates to Russia’s War in Ukraine: Key Events and How It’s Unfolding

China’s exports to Russia slumped in March, even as shipments to other nations grew quickly, indicating Chinese companies are likely being cautious about trading with Russia. 

April 14

Russia threatens to deploy nuclear weapons in and around the Baltic Sea if Finland and Sweden join NATO. Russia’s Black Sea flagship, the missile cruiser Moskva, is reported damaged in an incident attributed by Russia to exploding onboard ammunition and by a Ukrainian official to a rocket attack.

TOPSHOT-UKRAINE-RUSSIA-GEORGIA-SEVASTOPOL-FLEET
The Russian missile cruiser Moskva entering Sevastopol bay on Sept. 10, 2008. 
Photographer: Vasily Batanov/AFP/Getty Images

 

— With assistance by Andra Timu and Patricia Suzara

Alexey Navalny on the eve of first year of the Russia's agression war against Ukraine: a political platform (20 Feb 2023)

@navalny
 

On the eve of the anniversary of the full-scale and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, I have summarized the political platform of mine and, hopefully, of many other decent people.

15 theses of a Russian citizen who desires the best for their country.

What was all this about and what are we dealing with now? 1. President Putin has unleashed an unjust war of aggression against Ukraine under ridiculous pretexts.
He is desperately trying to make this a "people's war," seeking to turn all Russian citizens into his accomplices, but his attempts are failing. There are almost no volunteers for this war, so Putin's army has to rely on convicts and forcibly mobilized people.

2. The real reasons for this war are the political and economic problems within Russia, Putin's desire to hold on to power at any cost, and his obsession with his own historical legacy. He wants to go down in history as "the conqueror tsar" and "the collector of lands."

3. Tens of thousands of innocent Ukrainians have been murdered, and pain and suffering has befallen millions more. War crimes have been committed. Ukrainian cities and infrastructure have been destroyed.

4. Russia is suffering a military defeat. It was the realization of this fact that changed the rhetoric of the authorities from claims that "Kyiv will fall in three days" to hysterical threats of using nuclear weapons should Russia lose.

The lives of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers were needlessly ruined. The ultimate military defeat may be delayed at the cost of the lives of hundreds of thousands more mobilized soldiers, but it is generally inevitable.
The combination of aggressive warfare, corruption, inept generals, weak economy, and heroism and high motivation of the defending forces can only result in defeat.
The Kremlin's deceitful and hypocritical calls for negotiations and ceasefire are nothing more than a realistic assessment of the prospects of further military action.
What is to be done? 5. What are Ukraine's borders? They are similar to Russia's - they’re internationally recognized and defined in 1991. Russia also recognized these borders back then, and it must recognize them today as well. There is nothing to discuss here.
Almost all borders in the world are more or less accidental and cause someone's discontent. But in the twenty-first century, we cannot start wars just to redraw them. Otherwise, the world will sink into chaos.

6. Russia must leave Ukraine alone and allow it to develop the way its people want. Stop the aggression, end the war and withdraw all of its troops from Ukraine. Continuation of this war is just a tantrum caused by powerlessness, and putting an end to it would be a strong move.

7. Together with Ukraine, the U.S., the EU and the UK, we must look for acceptable ways to compensate for the damage done to Ukraine.
One way to achieve this would be lifting the restrictions imposed on our oil and gas, but directing part of the income Russia receives from hydrocarbon exports towards reparations. Of course, this should only be done after the change of power in Russia and the end of the war.

8. War crimes committed during this war must be investigated in cooperation with international institutions.

Why would stopping Putin's aggression benefit Russia? 9. Are all Russians inherently imperialistic? This is nonsense. For example, Belarus is also involved in the war against Ukraine.
Does this mean that the Belarusians also have an imperial mindset? No, they merely also have a dictator in power.
There will always be people with imperial views in Russia, just like in any other country with historical preconditions for this, but they are far from being the majority.
There is no reason to weep and wail about it. Such people should be defeated in elections, just as both right-wing and left-wing radicals get defeated in developed countries.

10. Does Russia need new territories? Russia is a vast country with a shrinking population and dying out rural areas. Imperialism and the urge to seize territory is the most harmful and destructive path.
Once again, the Russian government is destroying our future with its own hands just in order to make our country look bigger on the map. But Russia is big enough as it is. Our objective should be preserving our people and developing what we have in abundance.

11. For Russia, the legacy of this war will be a whole tangle of complex and, at first glance, almost unsolvable problems. It is important to establish for ourselves that we really want to solve them, and then begin to do so honestly and openly.
The key to success lies in understanding that ending the war as soon as possible will not only be good for Russia and its people, but also very profitable.
This is the only way to start progressing toward removal of sanctions, return of those who left, restoration of business confidence, and economic growth.

12. Let me re-emphasize that after the war, we will have to reimburse Ukraine for all the damage caused by Putin's aggression.
However, the restoration of normal economic relations with the civilized world and the return of economic growth will allow us to do so without interfering with the development of our country.We have hit rock bottom, and in order to resurface, we need to bounce back from it. This would be both ethically correct, rational, and profitable.

13. We need to dismantle the Putin regime and its dictatorship. Ideally, through conducting general free elections and convocating the Constitutional Assembly.

14. We need to establish a parliamentary republic based on the alternation of power through fair elections, independent courts, federalism, local self-governance, complete economic freedom and social justice.

15. Recognizing our history and traditions, we must be part of Europe and follow the European path of development. We have no other choice, nor do we need any.


Presidents' Day ... in Ukraine - Stephen Collinson, Caitlin Hu and Shelby Rose (CNN Meanwhile in America)

CNN, February 20, 2023

segunda-feira, 20 de fevereiro de 2023

A metamorfose do comunismo na China, livro de Xulio Rios - resenha de Rubén Darío Guzzetti

Un libro para leer, dialogar y reflexionar Rubén Darío Guzzetti

In PublicacionesSecciones by Xulio Ríos

https://politica-china.org/secciones/un-libro-para-leer-dialogar-y-reflexionar

El conjunto de generaciones que tenemos el privilegio de vivir estos tiempos estamos atravesados por una enorme cantidad de transformaciones excepcionalmente particulares agigantadas por su aceleración y profundidad. Desde los meteóricos cambios científicos y tecnológicos hasta los no menos importantes sociales y culturales, van transformando nuestra vida diaria haciendo muy difícil metabolizarlos.

Tratar de comprender que es lo que pasa, porque está ocurriendo lo que nos modifica nuestro entorno y a nosotros mismos, ha pasado de ser una opción a una necesidad y de esta a una obligación, aunque no sea mas que para sobrevivir.

La actualidad nos interpela a hacer horas extras como ciudadanos de este mundo.

Uno de los temas que ha sorprendido a la humanidad en el último medio siglo es la presencia internacional de un país que supo ser primera potencia en siglos anteriores pero que había caído en un abismo sometido por occidente. Sin lugar a dudas China sorprendió al mundo a partir de la segunda mitad del siglo XX. Casi todo lo que consumimos, en cualquier rincón del mundo, en alguna instancia de la cadena global de valor pasó por China.

Surgieron así cantidades de interpretaciones para dar explicación a infinidad de interrogantes que surgieron con el fenómeno chino:

¿Cómo fue posible que la población de uno de los dos países más poblados, que hasta hace 50 años se sostenía con dos comidas diarias a base de arroz hoy cuente con mas de 500 millones de personas en la categoría de clase media con la proyección de llevar esa cifra a 1000 millones en el año 2025?

¿Como hicieron para pasar de tener el 80% de analfabetos en 1949 a contar hoy con más de cien millones de universitarios?

¿Cómo hicieron para lograr poner fin a la pobreza extrema en noviembre del 2020 cuando los países mas desarrollados no lo logran y por el contrario esta crece?

¿Cómo fue que pasaron de tener un ingreso per cápita de U$S 180 en 1949 a 12.000, con grandes posibilidades de superar el piso de 12.600 y entrar a la categoría de país de altos ingresos, ¿en los próximos 2 años?

¿Cómo lograron pasar de ser una de las economías mas atrasadas a ser la segunda por PBI nominal y la primera en paridad de poder de compra, desplazando del podio a EE.UU., en 2014, después de 142 años?

En fin, podríamos sintetizar: ¿Cómo hicieron los chinos?, ¿qué hicieron los chinos?

El profesor Xulio Ríos, que dedicó una gran parte de su vida al estudio del proceso chino, aprovechando la celebración del primer centenario del Partido Comunista Chino, el 23 de julio de 2021, nos presentó una magistral obra que nos permite encontrar muchas respuestas al resurgimiento de la nación asiática.

El profesor Ríos, en las 435 páginas de su libro “La Metamorfosis del Comunismo en China”, no solo nos responde a muchos de estos interrogantes, sino que con una prosa entretenida y una objetividad envidiable nos refleja los distintos aportes de cada una de las cinco generaciones

de revolucionarios que gobernaron el país, los errores cometidos y la capacidad del partido para salir airoso de cada dificultad con una flexibilidad y capacidad política notable.

El profesor también pone luz sobre ciertas contradicciones en el seno de la organización como por ejemplo entre ideología y economía, entre izquierdistas-conservadores y occidentales-liberales, así como en la gestión de Xi Jinping el partido logró una síntesis virtuosa entre el yin y el yang, representativos de la cultura y la civilización milenaria, y la dialéctica del marxismo leninismo.

La obra también nos explica como el partido, a pesar de los obstáculos y equivocaciones nunca se apartó de sus objetivos fundacionales: revitalizar la nación china, luchar por su integridad territorial y trabajar incansablemente por la felicidad del pueblo.

Además, el profesor Ríos explica el ingreso de la RPCh en el escenario internacional y su propuesta de la Nueva Ruta de la Seda y de un futuro compartido para la humanidad.

Esta obra incursiona en evidenciar el conflicto actual entre las principales potencias y el proyecto estratégico de China en consonancia con su tradición e idiosincrasia.

Tampoco están ajenos en el libro los desafíos que enfrenta la actual dirigencia del partido, como se preparan, el fuerte intento de ir a una sociedad regida por leyes y con una profundización de la democracia entendida de una manera distinta a la occidental.

En fin, la obra del profesor Ríos es imprescindible para comprender un fenómeno muy particular, donde en Occidente estamos muy ajenos al mismo y lo solemos interpretar erróneamente con nuestras categorías.

Sin comprender qué está pasando en China es muy difícil entender qué pasa hoy en el mundo, cuáles son sus disputas y porqué ocurren. Para lograr dar algunos pasos en ese conocimiento es imprescindible leer “La Metamorfosis del Comunismo en China”, un manual de consulta permanente.

Uno de los libros que al lector lo deja reflexionando y con mucho más interés en el tema que al principio de su lectura.

Buenos Aires, 18 de Febrero de 2023

Rubén Darío Guzzetti

Director Instituto Argentino de Estudios Geopolíticos

Miembro del Instituto de Estudios de América Latina

Miembro del Centro y Formación Marxista Héctor Agosti