A mafia na Italia, de 1945 aos nossos dias (e no Brasil?) - conferencia no Uniceub

Infelizmente não vou estar em Brasília, para assistir, mas fica o registro para quem puder ir:

CONVITE: 

HISTÓRIA E DESENVOLVIMENTO DO FENÔMENO MAFIOSO EM ITÁLIA DE 1945 ATÉ HOJE 

23/6/2017 DAS 14H ÀS 20H, UNICEUB

Historia: Italia declara guerra a Alemanha (13/10/1943)

Das páginas do New York Times, This Day [13 de outubro de 1943) in History:

BIGGEST PACIFIC AIR FLEET BOMBS RABAUL; WRECKS 177 PLANES, 123 SHIPS IN SURPRISE; BADOGLIO, DECLARING WAR, RALLIES ITALY

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REICH'S ACTS CITED

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Italian Marshal Lists German Attacks as Cause of War

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URGES PEOPLE TO FIGHT

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He Tells Eisenhower That 'All Ties' With 'Dreadful Past' Are Broken--Backs Democracy

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By MILTON BRACKER

By Wireless to The New York Times

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Algiers, Oct. 13--Italy declared war on Nazi Germany, her former Axis partner, at 3 P.M. today, Greenwich time [11 A.M. in New York].

Acting on orders of King Victor Emmanuel as transmitted by Marshal Pietro Badoglio, the Italian Ambassador in Madrid notified the German Ambassador there that:

"In the face of repeated and intensified acts of war committed against Italians by the armed forces of Germany, from 1500 hours Greenwich time on the thirteenth day of October Italy considers herself in a state of war with Germany."

Thus the defeated nation led into war by Benito Mussolini re-entered it against its former ally through a curt diplomatic exchange in the capital of the country in which they had first collaborated on a military basis seven years ago.

Asks People to Avenge Ferocity

Excoriating the nation that now occupies Italy's own "Eternal City" as well as the entire industrial north, Marshal Badoglio in a proclamation to the Italian people exhorted them all to avenge the inhuman ferocity of the German Army at Naples and in other areas.

And in a five-sentence note to Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower, Mussolini's successor as head of the Italian Government told the Allied Commander in Chief that all ties with the "dreadful past" were broken and that his government would be proud "to march with you to inevitable victory." He asked General Eisenhower to communicate the decision to Britain, the United States, Russia and the other United Nations with which in his proclamation he said Italy would now march forward "shoulder to shoulder" to the end.

His Government, the septuagenarian marshal asserted in his proclamation to the Italian people, will soon be completed, and to guarantee its functioning as a truly democratic administration the representatives of "every political party" will be asked to participate. Moreover, the man with whom the Allies negotiated the armistice of Sept. 3 pledged that the present arrangement would in no way impair the "untrammeled right of the people of Italy to choose their own form of democratic government when peace is restored."

There could be no such peace, Marshal Badoglio said in the proclamation, so long as a single German remained on Italian soil. He reiterated in a statement to the press issued at his headquarters in Italy that his Government had no intention of interfering with the right of the Italian people to a free choice of the government they desire "for the not less important tasks of peace and reconstruction."

Cites Ouster of Mussolini

Marshal Badoglio cited the fact that the decree dissolving the Chamber of Fasces and Corporations--which accompanied the ousting of Mussolini in July--had effectually indicated the Government's intention. It was therein provided that elections would be held four months after the end of hostilities.

"What was said then is reaffirmed now," Marshal Badoglio said. "The present Government has clearly defined the task of leading the country until peace has been won. With that its mandate will cease."

The New York Times' exclusive story on the declaration this morning took the edge off the surprise of the announcement here this afternoon, but even without that the news would not have been so much of a surprise here as the news of the armistice thirty-five days ago.

It had been known for weeks--and this correspondent among others had said--that negotiations between the Allies and Marshal Badoglio were continuing with a view to formalizing Italy's war role from now on.

A major consideration was public opinion--just how the Allies intend to cope with the obvious criticism that is sure to arise in many quarters. There will be cries of "Darlanism" and much blinking in puzzlement among many Americans and Britons who have not yet forgotten the fact that our troops were shooting at and being shot at by Italians until very recently.

But as of the moment that the decision was formalized, with the Italian Ambassador at Madrid actually handing the document of notification to the German Ambassador there, it can be assumed that Washington and London had pretty well resolved the problem. This is about the way the two governments and their military High Command are understood to feel about it.

Question of Italian Army

The Italian Army as such cannot be regarded in its present state as an important striking force because of its great losses of man and equipment, but primarily because the all-important will to fight had been observed as very low for a long time preceding the armistice. At the same time Italian hatred of the Germans unquestionably grew as the fighting spirit waned, and episodes between German and Italian soldiers and civilians before and after the armistice have shown pretty clearly a complete and incontrovertible end of all sympathy between the former Axis partners.

Therefore, it seemed reasonable to take advantage of the Italians' willingness, even eagerness, to pin their hopes of a better role in the peace settlement to the status of co-belligerency now. As co-belligerents, which the Italians now become by virtue of the documents published today, even though the Allies have not said so in so many words, the Italians will be able to help the Allies in a great many ways, even if not as fellow- soldiers in the front lines.

Although nothing has been said officially as to exactly how the Italians will be employed in the rest of the war, it is almost universally believed that a lingering feeling between them and their recent enemies would militate against their efficiently joining in the actual battlefront.

At the same time, there is obviously an enormous amount of behind-the-lines work, particularly in their own country, where the Italians can be of enormous use. In all matters of supply, in furnishing guards over military property, as a collective liaison agency between advancing Allies and the liberated Italian people, there is no doubt that the Italians can contribute a major service to the Allied cause.

Italy's Position in War

This can be understood better when viewed negatively. If the Allies had turned down Italy's plea to be accepted as a co-belligerent, she would naturally have remained a defeated enemy. As such much Allied military strength would have had to be diverted to administering her disbanded army and her liberated but not militarily controlled territory.

As this correspondent wrote several times, the new status of Italy means a new and minimized role for the Allied Military Government, but at the same time it means giving the Italians more faith in those who defeated them, pride in having a share in the cleansing of their own territory of the hated Germans, and an opportunity actually to play an important role in ultimate victory.

Another highly important consideration behind the decision of the Allies to permit the Italian declaration was the probable effect on the populations of the occupied parts of Italy. Even with the status as it was up to this afternoon, the Allies had reason to be hopeful that the great laboring populations of Milan, Turin and Genoa would turn against the Germans in the same way the French and other European victims of Hitler had turned against the occupying forces.

Now, it may be argued, many persons north of the present Allied front will see in the advancing forces not only foreign armies considerably less odious than those they are driving out but Italian forces themselves. And no matter how limited is the extent to which the Italian troops are employed, that will nevertheless be true to some degree.

The question of who will figure in marshal Badoglio's completed government has been bruited about ever since the armistice. So far the only names released as officially connected with the Italian marshal are those of his military, naval and air aides who accompanied him on the visit to General Eisenhower Sept. 29. These also included Count Aquarone, Minister of Finance.

But it is uniformly agreed that outsiders will have to be brought in and, of course, Count Carlo Sforza's name has cropped up most often. He is now en route here.

But Count Sforza has said he will not actually be part of the Badoglio Government, although he will lend his influence and aid to the general project of kicking the Germans out. As Marshal Badoglio has said, the single objective is to free the country of Germans, and on that basis, it ought to be possible to unite many Italian leaders who otherwise are separated by vast political differences. Another hitch is that so many potential candidates are in German hands.

Attitude of the French

The attitude of the French Committee of National Liberation here remains generally calm, although there is still no love between the French and the Italians as the simple fact of newsreels showing Italians proves. But with Rene Massigli to direct its foreign relations and both Gen. Charles de Gaulle and Henri-Honore Giraud thoroughly aware of the primary military nature of the new arrangement, it is very unlikely that the French will make a formal protest.

At the time of the armistice they were most piqued, not by the armistice of course, but by the fact that it had been negotiated without their participation.

The establishment of the Politico-Military Commission, with France sharing membership with Russia, the United States and Britain, has helped to bring the committee into the swiftly enlarging Mediterranean picture and will undoubtedly help to alleviate any sting that the recognition of Italy as a co-belligerent might otherwise have provoked.

A member of the Committee of National Liberation said tonight that the Italian matter would undoubtedly be discussed at a regular meeting tomorrow morning, but he doubted that any formal comment would be issued. It was this man's opinion that many persons in France, particularly southeastern France, would be interested in the development. He said it was obvious from the background of French-Italian relations since 1938 that acceptance of the Italians as co-belligerents could hardly be seriously stomached by these French.

Many will never forget the circumstances of the Italian declaration of war against France. But the French spokesman also was sure the committee had come too far since those days to be seriously piqued by what is plainly a military step. Moreover, he cited a guarantee in the Allied leader's declaration that nothing growing out of the new status of Italy would be permitted to constitute inconsistence with the armistice terms. Beyond that he thought the French were prepared to await eventualities.

There may be a problem in Corsica, where 80,000 Italians have retained an army, which the patriots who figured in the liberation there would very much like to take over, as well as all of its transport.

Os paises balticos, a Irlanda e a Italia e a Espanha: licoes da crise

The Baltic states and Ireland are not a model for Italy and Spain
Simon Tilford
Centre for European Reform, 27 January 2012


Eurozone policy-makers – from President Sarkozy and Wolfgang Schäuble to the former President of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet – advocate that Italy and Spain should emulate the Baltic states and Ireland. These four countries, they argue, demonstrate that fiscal austerity, structural reforms and wage cuts can restore economies to growth and debt sustainability. Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Ireland prove that so-called "expansionary fiscal consolidation" works and that economies can regain external trade competitiveness (and close their trade deficits) without the help of currency devaluation. Such claims are highly misleading. Were Italy and Spain to take their advice, the implications for the European economy and the future of the euro would be devastating.
What have the three Baltic economies and Ireland done to draw such acclaim? All four have experienced economic depressions. From peak to trough, the loss of output ranged from 13 per cent in Ireland to 20 per cent in Estonia, 24 per cent in Latvia and 17 per cent in Lithuania. Since the trough of the recession, the Estonian and Latvian economies have recovered about half of the lost output and the Lithuanian about one third. For its part, the Irish economy has barely recovered at all and now faces the prospect of renewed recession.
Domestic demand in each of these four economies has fallen even further than GDP. In 2011 domestic demand in Lithuania was 20 per cent lower than in 2007. In Estonia the shortfall was 23 per cent, and in Latvia a scarcely believable 28 per cent. Over the same period, Irish domestic demand slumped by a quarter (and is still falling). In each case, the decline in GDP has been much shallower than the fall in domestic demand because of large shift in the balance of trade. The improvement in external balances does not reflect export miracles, but a steep fall in imports in the face of the collapse in domestic demand.
Estonia had a current account deficit equivalent to 17 per cent of GDP in 2007, but by 2011 this has become an estimated surplus of 1 per cent of GDP. Latvia and Lithuania experienced shifts in their external balances of a similar magnitude. Ireland went from a deficit of 5.6 per cent of GDP in 2008 to a small surplus in 2011. There is little argument that all four countries needed to narrow their trade deficits. But countries that have experienced such enormous declines in domestic demand, and whose economic growth figures have been flattered by a collapse of imports (and hence improvement in trade balances) hardly provide a blueprint for others, let alone big countries.
Spain and Italy could close their trade deficits if they engineered economic slumps of the order experienced by the Baltic countries and Ireland. But a collapse in demand in the EU's two big Southern European economies comparable to that experienced in the Baltic countries and Ireland would impose a huge demand shock on the European economy. Taken together, Italy and Spain account for around 30 per cent of the eurozone economy, so a 25 per cent fall in domestic demand in these two economies would translate into an 8 per cent fall in demand across the eurozone. The resulting slump across Europe would have a far-reaching impact on public finances, the region's banking sector and hence on investor confidence in both government finances and the banks. The impact on sovereign solvency in Spain and Italy and on the two countries' banking sectors would be devastating.
There are other factors that undermine the relevance of the Baltic and Irish experiences. In the face of mass unemployment, emigration, especially from Ireland and Lithuania, has ballooned. In the year to April 2011 alone, Irish emigration topped 76,000. The figures are similar for Lithuania, with 83,000 leaving in 2010. Comparable totals for Italy and Spain would be 1 million and 750,000 respectively. Moreover, the Irish have overwhelmingly moved to countries outside the eurozone (Australia, Canada, the UK and US). By contrast, a significant proportion of the very much larger number of Spanish and Italians would presumably be seeking work elsewhere in the currency union. The robust German labour market could absorb some migrants, but nothing like the numbers involved.
Despite massive movements in external balances that could not be repeated elsewhere and emigration that could not easily be emulated by others, Ireland, Latvia and Lithuania has experienced dramatic deteriorations in their public finances. Including the cost of bailing out Ireland's banks, public debt has risen from just 25 per cent of GDP in 2007 to over 100 per cent in 2011. In Latvia the debt to GDP ratio increased from 9 per cent to 45 per cent over this period and in Lithuania from 16 per cent to 38 per cent. The exception is Estonia, which has managed to run largely balanced budgets over the last four years.
Italy and Spain have few lessons to learn from the experience of the Baltic countries or Ireland. Those advocating that Italians and Spanish emulate these economies should admit that they are arguing in favour of an unprecedented slump in domestic demand. They should then demonstrate how this would be consistent with the solvency of both governments and banks in Italy and Spain. Finally, they should explain how the European economy as a whole could cope with an economic shock of this order.


Simon Tilford is chief economist at the Centre for European Reform

Unificada por engano?: Italia, 1861 - David Gilmour

'The Pursuit of Italy'

By DAVID GILMOUR
Reviewed by BROOKE ALLEN

The historian David Gilmour argues that the 1861 unification of Italy was a mistake.

THE PURSUIT OF ITALY

A History of a Land, Its Regions, and Their Peoples

By David Gilmour

Illustrated. 447 pp. Farrar, Straus & Giroux. $32.50.

The New York Times Book Review, December 2, 2011

Italy’s Fragile Union

By BROOKE ALLEN

Recent fissures in the European Union remind us that no political union is historically inevitable. Such federations are human creations, established either for expediency or through expansionism, frequently artificial: sometimes so much so that, as in the case of Yugoslavia, they simply fall apart.

The historian, biographer and Italophile David Gilmour argues that Italy is another fragile union, and in “The Pursuit of Italy” he makes a persuasive (if not entirely unfamiliar) argument that the 1861 unification of the country, trumpeted by nationalists as a triumph of progressive statecraft, was a mistake. Gilmour says many thinking Italians have begun to wonder why their country has for so long been intractably dysfunctional, crippled by corruption, organized crime and a hateful bureaucracy, and governed by an endless parade of shady leaders, of whom Silvio Berlusconi was only the most recent. “Why, people asked, did Italy not function?” Gilmour writes. “Was it in fact a real nation or was it just a 19th-century invention? Except in a purely formal sense, could it really be said to exist?”

Gilmour has attempted to answer these questions by providing an alternative history of Italy, not taking the usual centripetal line but emphasizing the country’s longtime “centrifugal tendencies.” The modern nation stretches from the town of Aosta in the northwest, where the official language is French, to the Apulia region in the southeast, where many people still speak Greek. With its 4,500 miles of coastline, the peninsula was for centuries subjected to countless invasions. Its mountainous interior and unnavigable rivers made communications difficult and encouraged the growth of one of the world’s most eclectic collections of civilizations and mutually incomprehensible dialects. Only one in 40 Italians spoke standard Italian at the time of unification, and it wasn’t until the 20th century that the language became commonly known within the country.

There was no unified Italy at any time between the fall of the Roman Empire and 1861. Progressive waves of Byzantines, Lombards, Arabs, Normans, Angevins, Aragonese and other overlords helped mold the peninsula into an assortment of independent and highly individual city-states. There was Florence, with its bold experiments in republican government; Rome, seat of power of the Papal States, a once mighty city that became a byword for stagnation and corruption; Sicily, the former breadbasket of the Roman Empire, thereafter a political pawn and a prize for whatever power happened to be dominant in the Mediterranean; and the great city of Naples, which had, according to ­Stendhal, “the true makings of a capital,” while the other Italian cities were only “glorified provincial towns.”

The case of Venice, which Gilmour posits was “the most harmonious society in Italy,” is the most pertinent to his argument. From the founding of the republic in the late seventh century, Venice turned its back on the mainland and became an Adriatic power. Its historic and cultural links were with Byzantium rather than Rome; its traditional enemy was Genoa. The independent republic lasted 1,100 years, considerably longer than the Roman Empire, with a smoothly functioning government and a strong community identity. It survived until 1797, when it was conquered and dissolved by Napoleon and eventually turned over to Austria. Decades later, Gilmour asserts, Venice’s “incorporation into the kingdom of Italy — which its people did not want — was almost as much an aberration in its history as its forced membership” in the Hapsburg and Napoleonic empires.

Gilmour ably deconstructs the national myth of unification and its pantheon of Giuseppe Mazzini, Giuseppe Garibaldi, Camillo Cavour and King Victor Emanuel II. The myth, he writes, was the result of a monumental propaganda effort by the house of Savoy, enforced, after unification, by a nationwide campaign of “statue-­making and street-christening in homage to the heroic four.” (What provincial town doesn’t have its statues of Gari­baldi and Victor Emanuel, its Via Cavour and Piazza Mazzini? Or its Museo del Risorgimento, usually a gloomy edifice shunned by the Italian citizenry?) In reality, Gilmour reveals, the four were rather more human than heroic. Victor Emanuel, the Piedmontese king, was a reactionary anti-constitutionalist who once confided to the British ambassador that the only two ways to govern Italians were “by bayonets and bribery.” Contemporary Italian politicians deemed him “an imbecile.” Cavour, the undoubtedly brilliant Piedmontese politician, was only a last-minute convert to the cause of unity: when it became evident that Gari­baldi was going to conquer Sicily, Cavour thought it best to annex the island to Piedmont. Unification, therefore, began as “a war of expansion” conducted by one Italian state, Piedmont, against another, Sicily.

Despite triumphs like the “economic miracle” of the 1950s and ’60s, united Italy cannot be called a success story: its citizens still see themselves more as Romans, Sienese or Sicilians than as Italians. Campanilismo — loyalty to one’s local bell-tower, or to a “historical and essentially self-contained form of society designed many centuries ago,” as Gilmour writes — remains stronger than loyalty to the idea of the nation. Perhaps, Gilmour argues, this should be considered a strength rather than a weakness. He writes in the spirit of earlier historians, like the 16th-century Florentine Francesco Guicciardini and the 19th-century Milanese intellectual Carlo Cattaneo, who believed that the Italian cities formerly thrived because of mutual competition. “United Italy,” he concludes, was “predestined to be a disappointment.” Is it time, then, to give up on a failed union and return to the idea of a loose confederation? If so, Gilmour’s detailed, learned and politically challenging book provides a picture of what such a community of nation-states might look like.

Brooke Allen’s most recent book is “The Other Side of the Mirror: An American Travels Through Syria.” She teaches literature at Bennington College
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Crise Financeira na Europa: Italia para nao-italianos...

European economies

Europe's deepening crisis

Nov 10th 2011, 17:48 by The Economist online

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/05/europes_economies?fsrc=nlw|newe|11-11-2011|new_on_the_economist

THE interactive graphic above (updated November 10th 2011) illustrates the depth of the problems that the European economy faces. The euro-zone crisis reached a critical stage when Italy joined the seven per-cent club, the group of euro-zone countries whose borrowing costs (as measured by ten-year bond yields) have gone above 7% and stayed there. It public debts are close to 120% of GDP. Only Greece has a greater burden. Ireland’s is lower but it has a large budget deficit so is adding to its debt at a rapid pace. So is Britain but it has benefited from being a non-euro haven and can still borrow very cheaply.
Italy’s situation is not yet critical because the government does not have to refinance all its debts quickly at punishing interest rates. The average maturity of its public bonds is around seven years. Only in Austria and Britain is it longer.
GDP grew in most countries in the first half of 2011, though there were marked differences in performance. Germany was sprightly. So were the countries around with which it trades most heavily. By contrast GDP in Greece and Portugal has crashed under the weight of austerity. More recently, the crisis has sapped the strength of even the so-called “core” euro-zone countries. The strains of the euro area’s sovereign-debt crisis make a recession in the early months of 2012 likely.
In many countries unemployment has not gone up by as much as one might expect given the depth of the 2008-09 crisis. Germany has lower unemployment than it enjoyed in the boom years. The worst-affected countries include Ireland and Spain, where a collapse in construction has swollen the dole queues. Youth unemployment is especially high in Spain, prompting protests. Britain has fared better because its tight planning laws limited the growth of its construction sector during the global housing boom. But sluggish growth and the prospect of renewed recession mean that joblessness is rising again in Britain as well as in Germany.
AUDIO: Edward Carr, our foreign editor, explains why understanding the crisis in the euro zone requires a look at the unresolved nature of what it means to be European

A crise europeia e seus efeitos no Brasil - Ricardo Amorim

Entrevista do economista Ricardo Amorim sobre como se preparar para os efeitos da próxima crise no Brasil (11/2011)

Revista Combustíveis & Conveniência
11/2011
Por Rosemeire Guidoni

O economista Ricardo Amorim foi um dos poucos que anteciparam a crise elétrica brasileira de 2001, a bolha imobiliária norte-americana de 2008 e a crise européia de 2010.
Em 2008, inclusive, Amorim deixou Nova York (EUA) e retornou ao Brasil, apostando que as dificuldades dos chamados países ricos seriam persistentes e as oportunidades de negócios no Brasil, mais interessantes. Assim, em 2009, após quase vinte anos de carreira no mercado financeiro internacional atuando nos EUA, Europa e Brasil – ele montou sua empresa, a Ricam Consultoria (www.ricamconsultoria.com.br), que presta assessoria econômico financeira, de investimentos e de estratégia para clientes no Brasil e no exterior.

Um timing, sem dúvida, muito bom. E agora, mais uma vez, o economista prevê um momento de crise global, desencadeada pela situação europeia. “Mas os impactos desta vez serão menores no Brasil.

Deveremos ter dois trimestres ruins, seguidos de recuperação”, disse ele, durante entrevista concedida à Combustíveis & Conveniência. Na avaliação de Amorim, a situação na Europa deve piorar, mas causará reflexos menores do que a crise de 2008. O preço dos combustíveis (tanto do petróleo quanto do etanol) cairá em um primeiro momento, mas deve voltar aos patamares atuais no final do ano que vem.

Amorim, que é formado em economia pela Universidade de São Paulo, com pósgraduação pela ESSEC de Paris, é também colunista da Revista IstoÉ e, desde 2003, um dos apresentadores do programa Manhattan Connection, do canal Globonews.
Além de palestrante renomado, entre um compromisso e outro dessa extensa agenda, Amorim conversou com a Combustíveis & Conveniência, antecipando tendências e mostrando sua visão sobre o que pode acontecer a este Questão de timing.

Leia, a seguir, os principais trechos da entrevista.

Combustíveis&Conveniência: Diante dos sinais de agravamento da crise externa, que reflexos podem ser esperados para o Brasil?
Ricardo Amorim: A crise deve trazer alguns impactos para o Brasil. E, provavelmente, terá uma amplitude muito maior. Estamos em um momento equivalente a setembro de 2008. Havia uma crise imobiliária nos Estados Unidos, que até então era específica do mercado norte-americano. O que aconteceu em meados de setembro, quando o banco Lehman Brothers quebrou, foi que, o que era uma crise imobiliária norte-americana, se transformou em uma crise global. E é provável que ocorra um processo parecido agora na Europa, com calote de alguns países europeus. A Grécia provavelmente será o primeiro, causando quebras bancárias desta vez na Europa.
A partir do momento que temos quebras bancárias, acontece uma forte contração de crédito em todo o mundo. Quando os bancos perdem muito dinheiro e são forçados a cortar o crédito a todos, incluindo a bancos brasileiros e empresas brasileiras, isto atinge a economia de forma negativa.
Um segundo impacto atingirá mais especificamente os exportadores brasileiros: o setor de agronegócios, de commodities em geral e o setor industrial. À medida que esta crise lá fora leva a uma recessão profunda, o consumo despenca; quando o consumo despenca, são compradas quantidades muito menores de produtos, inclusive do Brasil; e os preços acabam caindo também.

C&C: E isso deve afetar de alguma forma o mercado de combustíveis?
RA: O setor de combustíveis será atingido sim, mesmo que de forma indireta. Um dos impactos que a crise deve causar será uma queda muito forte dos preços internacionais dos combustíveis, o que implica uma redução inicialmente do preço do petróleo, muito significativa no mercado internacional. Isso pode levar a um impacto até positivo para o setor de combustíveis no Brasil, já que pode provocar uma queda no preço dos derivados aqui. O etanol deve ser negativamente impactado, seja por conta da queda do preço internacional do petróleo, seja por causa da queda do preço do açúcar no mercado internacional.

C&C: Falando em preços dos combustíveis, em outubro, o governo reduziu o percentual do etanol anidro na gasolina C e, com isso, a Petrobras terá de importar mais gasolina. Com maior porcentagem de gasolina na mistura, o combustível se tornaria mais caro para o consumidor, mas, para contornar este problema, o governo reduziu também a Cide. Como o senhor avalia a decisão?
RA: Poderia ser um problema se os preços, tanto do etanol quanto da gasolina, continuassem aumentando. Mas o que deve acontecer é que o agravamento da crise nos próximos meses vai fazer com que o preço dos combustíveis caia. Isso deve ocorrer tanto no caso do petróleo no mercado internacional, quanto em relação aos preços do açúcar e, por consequência, do etanol.

 C&C: Mas o governo tem um prejuízo de arrecadação por conta da redução da Cide e, ao mesmo tempo, a Petrobras paga mais caro pela gasolina importada do que vende no mercado interno. Isso não está gerando uma bolha de inflação prestes a explodir?
RA: A redução da Cide é momentânea. Do ponto de vista da arrecadação, não tem problema nenhum, pois ela está forte. E há grandes chances de reverter esta medida brevemente. Não vejo como problema fiscal para o governo, nem como medida que será necessária por um período muito longo.
Com a queda do preço internacional do petróleo, esta disparidade entre os preços lá fora que subiram, que é custo para a Petrobras, e preços internos estáveis, que é a receita da Petrobras, deixará de existir. O que aconteceu nos últimos meses foi que a margem da Petrobras foi corroída por estes problemas. É fato que isso prejudicou investimentos da empresa, como a construção de novas refinarias e o pré-sal, mas é algo momentâneo. A crise internacional vai passar, e a condição estrutural do mercado é de mais demanda por energia, vindo da Índia, Brasil e China, os grandes emergentes. É provável que, já no segundo semestre do ano que vem, o petróleo volte a subir e aí voltamos gradualmente à mesma situação que temos agora.

C&C: Se a demanda por combustíveis crescer muito mais rápido do que a oferta, que reflexos isso pode ter para o mercado?
RA: Este aumento de demanda já vem acontecendo desde a virada do milênio. Em 2001, o petróleo custava US$ 8 o barril e chegou a US$ 150 em 2008, retornou a US$ 40 e voltou a subir. Vamos ter o mesmo processo: este movimento estrutural de aumento de combustíveis, de tempos em tempos com crise eles caem, depois voltam a subir e oferta e demanda se equilibram. A crise reduz a demanda temporariamente, aí os preços caem. Existem políticas especulativas no mercado, que precisam ser revertidas quando os preços começam a cair.

C&C: Com a redução de preços dos combustíveis e o maior número de veículos em circulação, não existe uma tendência de aumento de demanda?
RA: Um dos reflexos da crise, primeiro, será a forte desaceleração de vendas de veículos por algum tempo, como aconteceu no último trimestre de 2008 e início de 2009. A venda de veículos depende muito de crédito e, sem crédito, deve ocorrer uma queda. Mas será temporariamente, pois esta redução de crédito deve durar de três a seis meses.

C&C: Mas nos últimos anos o número de veículos já aumentou significativamente. Em sua avaliação, a atual demanda por combustíveis no Brasil deve se manter ou haverá algum tipo de queda?
RA: A frota já cresceu, é fato, e isso explica o atual aumento de vendas dos postos. Mas a frota vai temporariamente crescer em ritmo mais lento e, em momentos de crise mais aguda, poderá haver uma substituição. Tem gente que usa hoje o carro para tudo, mas poderá optar por transporte coletivo ou esquemas de caronas, ou mesmo reduzir o ritmo de viagens e deslocamentos em geral. Tudo isso leva a algum impacto, embora limitado. O setor de combustíveis será impactado pela crise que vem aí, mas, por uma série de razões, como a expansão da frota, que já aconteceu, e o consumo, que não depende de crédito, esta atividade será pouco impactada no Brasil.

C&C: O novo IPI sobre os veículos importados deve contribuir para elevar a frota de veículos flex no Brasil. Que reflexos isso deve ter no mercado de combustíveis, neste momento em que o país tem uma queda na produção de etanol e até recorre à importação de gasolina?
RA: Provavelmente isso vai estimular o crescimento do setor de etanol. Mas é importante observar que a diferença do carro flex é a flexibilidade que ele permite ao consumidor. Ou seja, uma parte maior da frota poderá optar pelo combustível mais atraente, seja etanol ou gasolina. Não necessariamente o flex vai significar aumento de demanda de etanol, isso depende de preços.

C&C: Os produtores de etanol afirmam que a crise que o setor enfrentou este ano, e ainda enfrenta, tem várias causas. Além do fator agrícola em si, eles relatam a crise financeira do fim de 2008 como um dos motivos para a queda da produção neste ano. Diante da perspectiva de uma nova crise no crédito, quais as chances deste segmento se recuperar?
RA: De 2008 até agora, o setor sucroenergético passou pelas maiores chacoalhadas que provavelmente qualquer outro segmento sentiu. O preço do açúcar, que é o que determina este mercado, em 2008 estava no nível mais alto dos 30 anos anteriores. Quando veio a crise, o preço caiu para o mais baixo, também em 30 anos. Com isso, o produtor que plantou antes, com uma expectativa de preço mais alto, teve de vender mais baixo e se descapitalizou. Ao mesmo tempo, se somou a isso uma forte restrição de crédito e, basicamente, houve uma série de usinas com problemas financeiros graves. O que mudou de lá pra cá foram duas coisas: primeiro o preço voltou a subir e atingiu o patamar mais alto de toda a história, ultrapassando inclusive aquele nível de 2008, o que ajudou a melhorar a rentabilidade do negócio.
Em segundo lugar, boa parte das empresas que estavam com dificuldades foram compradas por empresas estrangeiras. Houve uma entrada muito grande no setor de empresas norte-americanas, francesas, chinesas, o que significa que a situação de capitalização do setor hoje é bem diferente do que era em 2008. Agora, este mercado deve ser temporariamente impactado por uma crise bem severa.

C&C: A maior demanda por energia pode trazer também um aumento da procura por biocombustíveis. Isso pode acarretar outros reflexos ao mercado, como elevação do preço de alimentos?
RA: Sim, pode trazer alguns reflexos. Porém, já temos aumento no preço dos alimentos, independentemente dos biocombustíveis. A demanda por alimentos cresceu no mundo, os países pobres estão melhorando e as pessoas passaram a comer melhor. Existe uma demanda maior por energia, mas também por alimentos.
A produção de biocombustíveis pode levar a um afastamento das culturas de alimentos, o que pode encarecer os alimentos por conta dos fretes. Mas, por outro lado, há locais que saem ganhando com a chegada de plantações. Na média, pode até contribuir para o encarecimento dos alimentos, mas as plantações voltadas para biocombustíveis não constituem o principal fator.
No caso dos Estados Unidos ou Europa, que produzem etanol a partir de grãos, a demanda por energia é somente mais um fator do encarecimento. Mesmo sem biocombustíveis, os alimentos iam aumentar, como ainda tem a questão dos biocombustíveis, aumenta mais ainda.

C&C: Esta perspectiva de crise deve significar algum tipo de perda para o varejo de combustíveis? É o momento de adiar investimentos?
RA: Definitivamente, investimentos que estão sendo feitos com financiamento de curto prazo devem ser adiados. Não é hora de assumir dívidas que terão de ser renegociadas daqui a seis meses ou um ano, já que existe uma possibilidade de menor disponibilidade de capital neste período. Ou seja, quando as empresas forem rolar a dívida, vão encontrar financiamentos mais desfavoráveis. Para evitar este risco, há duas soluções: ou tomar financiamentos com prazos maiores agora, para daqui a dois ou três anos, ou adiar investimentos. Para investimentos não fundamentais, adiar é a melhor alternativa.

C&C: E no caso de investimentos que não podem ser adiados, como reformas para adequação ambiental, necessárias para o licenciamento dos empreendimentos? Quais seriam as alternativas seguras hoje?
RA: Se o investimento não pode ser adiado, é interessante recorrer a financiamentos mais longos. Normalmente as linhas do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) são as mais longas para este setor. Quem precisa de crédito tem de alongar os financiamentos agora, enquanto o crédito ainda está farto e disponível, pois pode ser que daqui a alguns meses não existam mais opções. Quem não precisa, não é o momento para se alavancar. Tente não se endividar neste momento.

C&C: E se o crédito encurtar, o que fazer?
RA: Se o posto tiver um problema de crédito, provavelmente terá de fazer uma rolagem da dívida e, se as condições de mercado estiverem parecidas com as atuais, ele fará mesmo com custos mais altos. O problema é se somar à situação dele um problema de crédito de todo o mercado. Ou seja, não haverá quem faça o empréstimo, e esta empresa pode se transformar na “presa” a ser abocanhada por alguém mais capitalizado no momento.
Aliás, para empresas que conseguirem se capitalizar agora, o que vai acontecer é que durante a crise vão surgir as melhores oportunidades de investimento, quando se consegue comprar por preços mais baratos. Para quem compra, é o melhor investimento. Para quem tem dinheiro, a hora é de ser cauteloso e esperar o momento de alguns terem dificuldades para conseguir fazer investimentos de expansão, para compra de concorrentes a custos muito mais favoráveis.

C&C: Que opções de investimento financeiro hoje podem ser consideradas seguras?
RA: É hora de ser defensivo, o que significa investir em renda fixa, ou basicamente em coisas líquidas, que permitam o saque do dinheiro logo, porque vão surgir ótimas oportunidades causadas pela crise. O capital deve ficar disponível caso o empresário queira aproveitar uma oportunidade para comprar um concorrente que passa por dificuldades, ou queira fazer outros investimentos, como em ações, que devem ficar muito baratas.

C&C: Para os postos de combustíveis, o cartão de crédito sempre foi considerado um problema, por conta das altas taxas. Diante de uma perspectiva de crise econômica, vale a pena renegociar algum tipo de dívida ou suspender parcerias?
RA: Seria o caso de negociar, mas aí entra a questão de quem depende mais de quem. O poder de barganha dos postos talvez não seja grande. A dificuldade que existe é de que, a menos que se tenha uma cadeia enorme de postos negociando de forma conjunta, e um faturamento tão grande que faça diferença para a administradora de cartões, um dono de posto que se recuse a aceitar cartões pode perder vendas, o que não vai fazer grande diferença para o cartão. O melhor caminho é os postos criarem algum tipo de associação ou cooperativa que negocie coletivamente. Enquanto as negociações são individuais, não têm força com as administradoras de cartões.

C&C: É um bom momento para se renegociar um contrato de locação de um posto? Você acredita que pode haver uma forte queda do mercado de locações vis a vis uma forte queda no preço dos imóveis, ou os imóveis permanecerão em patamares parecidos, em especial os comerciais em áreas metropolitanas?
RA: Não acredito que os preços dos imóveis ou os valores de locação sofrerão grandes mudanças nos próximos meses. Em particular, ficaria surpreso se houvesse quedas significativas tanto de preços de imóveis quanto de aluguéis. Portanto, não acredito que será possível renegociar contratos de locação.

C&C: Pode ocorrer um aumento da inflação estrutural no Brasil, ou seja, inflação advinda da falta de infraestrutura, em especial nas áreas metropolitanas?
RA: O mais provável é que a inflação caia de forma significativa, nos próximos trimestres, devido a um arrefecimento da demanda e a uma maior oferta de produtos no Brasil devido à recessão na Europa e nos Estados Unidos. A inflação só continuaria nos atuais patamares bastante elevados se, de uma hora para outra, a crise na Europa e o risco de recessão nos Estados Unidos deixassem de existir, o que até pode acontecer, mas é bastante improvável.

C&C: O que um posto de combustíveis pode fazer para reduzir seus custos de operação? Soluções como a permissão de abastecimento no sistema selfservice podem ser uma alternativa para isso?
RA: Sou completamente favorável ao self-service neste segmento. Historicamente, faltava emprego e sobrava gente pra trabalhar. Então, se criaram situações e legislações para gerar e garantir empregos, até mesmo em casos de necessidades bastante relativas – como é o caso dos postos de combustíveis. Hoje a realidade do país é diferente, existe uma grande demanda por mão de obra. Ou seja, no passado foi criada uma legislação com o intuito de preservar empregos, que hoje não é mais necessária. A legislação gerou empregos, mas gerou também custo para as empresas. O Brasil hoje está do lado contrário: falta mão de obra.
O país cresce muito e vai voltar a crescer após a crise e, por isso, não há mais necessidade de lei para preservar os empregos. Acho que pode haver uma legislação que permita a escolha para os postos, o self-service deveria ser opção.
O país terá como absorver estas pessoas em outros setores, como na construção civil. Mas, provavelmente, o momento desta medida não é agora, com a perspectiva de uma crise, pois traria impactos como o desemprego. Mas, daqui a um ano, o país teria todas as condições para isso.

Pausa para... la dolce vita (pronto, pronto...): viajando pela Italia

The New york times, OCtober 28, 2011

EUROPE > ITALY

A Gothic Tour of Italy

Ruth Fremson/The New York Times

Church of Santa Maria delle Anime dell Purgatorio in Naples. More Photos »

By NINA BURLEIGH

The New York Times, October 28, 2011

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VISITORS to Italy tend to seek its sunny, Dionysian side — vino, pasta, opera, cinquecento art, George Clooney on a Vespa. But, like a chilly draft on a hot day, Italy’s gothic angle offers intimations of darkness that make a moment on the piazza even more delicious. Consciously or not, anyone sipping prosecco at sunset in Rome or Naples savors an extra spoon of dolce in their vita thanks to the contrast between the beauty of the present and the proximity of catacombs, ruins and sites of ancient suffering. 

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The original gothic writers were much inspired by the duality in the bel paese. Edgar Allan Poe, Nathaniel Hawthorne, Horace Walpole, Ann Radcliffe and other masters of the romantic and horror genres set some of their most famous works in Italy.

“Italy was the Gothic writers’ favorite background,” wrote Massimiliano Demata, a professor at the University of Bari, who has made a study of the form. The country’s baroque portas, ruined castles, eerie reliquaries and catacombs were a gateway to the uncanny, possessing, as he put it, “a labyrinthine and claustrophobic architecture that was the novels’ perfect physical and psychological setting.” Today, these same books can serve as unconventional guidebooks for tourists who tire of the sun and want to explore the country’s macabre past. 

For the gothic writers, different locations in Italy piqued different aspects of the imagination. Venice seemed to hold special appeal for those wishing to mine pre-Freudian psychological terror (“The Assignation,” by Poe, takes place near the Bridge of Sighs). Padua, an ancient university town 20 miles from Venice,  served as the setting for one of Hawthorne’s creepiest short works, “Rappaccini’s Daughter,” about a mad scientist who experiments with plant poisons and turns his beautiful daughter’s lips into a literal kiss of death for her young student lover.

I decided to start my tour in Otranto, a white, cobbled seaside town on the Adriatic edge of Italy’s boot heel, and the setting for what’s regarded as the first gothic novel, “The Castle of Otranto” by Horace Walpole. I had visited the town briefly one summer afternoon with children in tow. Returning in late fall, I found the formerly bustling streets chilly and silent — not as inviting, perhaps, but more in keeping with the intimations of its macabre history that I had been reading about in guidebooks.

I checked into the luxurious nine-room Palazzo Papaleo, and was led upstairs to a spacious suite with a balcony that overlooked the cathedral across a small piazza. The gonging of its bells was so close that, standing on the balcony, I could feel their vibrations. During the two nights I slept there I was apparently the sole guest and had the run of the place. I took my prosecco and my laptop to a common room with vaulted ceiling and big dormer windows with heavy dark velvet drapes. Once in a while I spied an elderly man with an eye patch drifting around the hallways, passing me without a word. He was the only other person sleeping in the building, and turned out to be the owner, the last scion of the noble family that had lived in the palazzo for centuries. 

Otranto, I had learned, is literally haunted by an old act of evil: a 15th-century massacre — one in the long and bloody skirmish between Islam and Christianity — that Otrantans commemorate annually to this day. “Local history is filled with blood and darkness,” an Otranto guide and historian, Francesco Calignano,  told me, as he led me into the Cathedral of Otranto. The cathedral is known for its complex mosaic floor, which depicts scenes from just about every human myth and legend known to the world circa A.D. 1100, including kabbalah’s tree of life, Confucianism and Puss in Boots. 

We entered on a raw, late-autumn morning and we were the only people inside. After admiring the beautiful floor, I was led to a truly gothic spectacle:  lining shelves on a wall off to the side were 800 human skulls — victims of invading Turks. Mr. Calignano grimaced as he related how bits of the victims’ preserved flesh are still stored in a locked drawer. Once a year in August they are removed and paraded through town streets. 

“The Castle of Otranto” was a publishing phenomenon in 1764. Walpole’s short tale describes the supernatural punishment of a usurping Italian feudal prince in a haunted castle packed with what we now consider standard fright stock — secret doors, gloomy tunnels, haunted suits of armor, portraits of ancestors jumping out of their frames. At the time, though, these images were so fresh and shocking that Walpole’s little book became an instant best seller in England.

Modern-day Otranto is a place of seductive pleasures, where a warm afternoon can be passed bathing in azure seas and gorging on nouvelle Italian seafood accompanied by the crisp local Greco di Tufo wine. Sienna Miller has been known to sun herself on the same local beaches where Turkish invaders once stormed the sands waving scimitars on their way to the Castle of Otranto. I paid a few euros and toured the castle’s white corridors alone, seeking signs of Walpole’s ghosts, peering into small, empty, barred rooms, any one of which could have been a dungeon. On the outside, it is a photogenic and perfectly preserved white fortress. But its turrets, gunwales and wide, waterless moat attest to the  inhabitants’ defensive terror of the invader hundreds of years ago.

A SHORT flight or a five-hour train trip west across the heel of Italy to Naples allows ample time to dig into  the works of a lesser-known gothic master, Ann Radcliffe. She was a reclusive Englishwoman who like Walpole was celebrated in her day for novels, many of which were set in Italy, that pit seemingly supernatural forces of evil, often associated with Catholicism or small-time feudal tyrants, against guileless young women and their brave, thwarted lovers.

Radcliffe’s best-known novel, “The Italian,” takes place in 18th-century Naples. Almost every page contains a castle keep, a shadowy ruin and creepy, robed stalkers from the religious orders. The plot is simple enough: a young nobleman of Naples falls in love with a girl of whom his mother strongly disapproves. The mother hires an evil monk to do away with her, but the monk discovers that the girl is actually his own daughter — the product of an illicit affair.

The novel opens with an Englishman surveying the Naples church of Santa Maria del Pianto, which Radcliffe wrote housed “the very ancient convent of the order of the Black Penitents.”

Contemporary visitors can test Radcliffe’s gothic imagination against the lively reality of the teeming city. The church of Santa Maria del Pianto is still there, but it’s not on any tourist map. When I inquired about it, a woman at a news kiosk in central Naples pointed vaguely in a (wrong) direction, sending me through a giant 19th-century galleria with a roof of delicate glass and worn marble floors. Subsequently, my quest led me down crowded, narrow back streets with balconies festooned with laundry and finally to the doorstep of the Hosteria Toledo, where the proprietors laid out a late Sunday lunch of fried frutti di mare and a tomato and basil pasta. The owner’s brother-in-law, a tour guide, was reached by phone to assure me that the church in Radcliffe’s book was definitely “not one of the great churches of Naples.” It does still exist, but in what is now an organized-crime-infested suburb called Secondigliano. I crossed it off the to-do list, reluctantly.

 Radcliffe’s other Neapolitan sites are worth a visit, if only because searching for them allows one to wander the city’s streets, noting the many other gothic charms of Naples that Radcliffe missed.

The book’s lovers, Vivaldi and Ellena, first lay eyes on each other at the church of San Lorenzo Maggiore, which still stands in Naples’s historic center — a yellow and gray hulk with an archaeological site underneath it. Across a busy medieval lane is a far spookier, skull-festooned church, built in the 17th century by a cult called the Souls of Purgatory, which dedicated itself to adopting the bones of the dead to pray over and rescue the souls associated with them from eternal oblivion. Presiding over this in the Church of Santa Maria delle Anime dell Purgatorio is an actual crowned skull called “Lucia” and a sculptural masterpiece of a winged skull.

This macabre landmark fronts a fresh vegetable market that resembles a Food & Wine magazine cover, decorated with strings of garlic, peppers and sun-dried tomatoes. Behind it, a huge open-air bazaar dedicated to creating and selling the phallic lucky charms of Naples that look like little red horns, called pulcicorni. Next door is the always mobbed Pizzeria Sorbillo, which serves up Neapolitan pies of legend.

Most of the action in “The Italian” takes place at a ruined castle and monastery in the hills high above the city, where our hero and heroine get locked in dark rooms, are kidnapped and then sent to sadistic Inquisitional court. The Castel San’Elmo still towers over Naples, a hulking brute of a medieval structure, the sides of which form a natural-looking cliff pocked with arches and gun holes and riddled with dark passageways and dungeons within.

San’Elmo’s view of Naples, with its mint, ocher and rust roofs, church domes and sea, is spectacular. A few hundred yards downhill is the monastery of San Martino, a sumptuous, treasure-filled villa once inhabited by a small group of Carthusian monks who were expelled by Napoleon in 1804 and finally suppressed for good when Italy was unified in 1860.

The monastery’s secluded gardens, fragrant with orange trees, swaying cypress and grape arbors, could have been the setting for the hero’s run-ins with the scheming monk whose cowl, Radcliffe wrote, “threw a shade over the livid paleness of his face, increased its severe character, and gave an effect to his large, melancholy eye which approached horror.” Both castle and monastery are accessible by a funicular that runs down to the historic center, which has lively shopping and fantastic restaurants and bars alongside medieval creepiness.

Don’t miss the small Museo Capella Sansevero, with two anonymous skeletons whose entire circulatory systems are said to have been mysteriously mummified by a mad noble alchemist, and which resemble modernist wire sculptures of human figures. The Classical and X-rated magnificence of the Farnese collection of Roman marbles in the Naples National Archaeological Museum are also worth a visit. Some news kiosks will even helpfully provide a map of “Mysterious Naples” that includes spooky sites beyond even the English gothic imagination.

TRAVELING north from Naples toward Rome, the gothically inclined might want to pass the two-hour train ride reading a little novella by another obscure Victorian lady, Anne Crawford, author of the first vampire story in English. The pastoral vistas of the campagna have provided the setting for countless paintings and photographs commemorating Italy’s Classical beauty, but carved into the rock beneath the fields is an extensive warren of catacombs that once held the remains of millions of pagan and then Christian dead.

Crawford set “A Mystery of the Campagna,” published in 1887, in and above these tombs. Her female vampire, preceding Bram Stoker’s Dracula by 10 years, is named Vespertilia, a tall and slender seductress, clad in “something long and dark” out of which “a pair of white hands gleamed,” says the narrator, a Frenchman who has lost his friend to her charms. She sleeps in the catacombs by day, and by night leads besotted Northern European gentlemen from the innocent frolics of their Grand Tours down the stairs, where “the darkness seemed to rise up and swallow them.”

The catacombs are today a popular tourist site, fenced in and supervised by priests who lead groups of tourists down the yellow stone steps into the gloom, and, in a half-dozen languages, talk about the burial ground for the earliest Christians. 

Our tour guide, an Australian priest in a black shirt and white collar, declined to discuss what went on in the catacombs during the thousand years or so between their official end as a Christian burial ground and their reopening in the 19th century. He had even less interest in speculation about vampires. 

“This is a sacred place,” he kept reminding his small group, which included a trio of asthmatic Australians who couldn’t stop coughing in the musty, damp air. We trailed him through stony, narrow corridors single file, passing empty rectangular shelves that once held skeletons. I tried to stay in the middle, as there seemed enough shadow in the vaults to hide a wraith or two waiting to clutch a laggard in its cold embrace.

After the hourlong tour in the shelves of the dead, visitors rejoin the living to  quaff espresso and snack on cornetti or pizza at any one of a number of friendly cafes along the highway across from the site’s moss-covered brick walls. An extremely life-affirming and wallet-friendly shopping experience can be had at the huge, colorful flea market on Via Sannio at the Porta San Giovanni on the way back into Rome. At a table in the far corner, vendors sell heaps of fine cashmere sweaters and designer-label wool jackets starting at 30 euros. 

Rome is rife with gothic locations, and for my trip I took along “The Marble Faun,” by Nathaniel Hawthorne. Hawthorne was reaching the end of his career as a master of the psychological and supernatural horrors of Puritan New England, and this novelistic travelogue is not his best. A two-volume compendium of some of the eerie sites, it is a meandering tale of three American artists working in Rome who meet and befriend a real-life satyr, who seems to have been the flesh-and-blood model for a marble statue in the Capitol. 

Visitors to the gloriously treasure-packed Capitoline Museums today will find many statues of the faun, associated with Dionysus, who represented the animal in man, simultaneously innocent, sexual and lawless. The faun’s more threatening relative, the satyr, is overtly Luciferian, with horns and cloven hooves. A large satyr of this type glares archly out from a cupboard in the Egyptian courtyard of the museum.

A bus ride or a leisurely stroll across Rome’s historic center leads the traveler to another principal site in “The Marble Faun” — the creepily gorgeous Capuchin Catacombs, where the Hawthorne characters confronted an evil monk. 

Decorated in Baroque style with the white bones of 4,000 dead monks, the Capuchin Crypt near the luxurious Via Veneto is today a popular stop on any Rome tour. As macabre as it seems, it’s also a sacred site. No cameras, no hats and no summery garb is allowed. “Tell the Americans, no spaghetti strap trash,” said Alba, the stern receptionist on duty the afternoon I was there, while berating a group of Germans who were ignoring the signs about turning off their cellphones. “Listen,” she exhorted them in English. “The cellphone lines are too strong for the human bones here. They are really delicate.”

The crypt is tiny and claustrophobic, and the bones’ sickly sweet smell fills a dimly lighted passageway winding past eight gated displays with arabesques of thousands of bones arranged by type — fingers, patellas, femurs, knuckles, skulls — in lacy flowers, garlands, clocks or urns, attached to walls and ceiling. In the final room, the message posted on the floor near the roses strewn by worshipers, in five languages, reminds happy tourists to drink deeply from the cup of Italy’s joys now, as the eternal shadow looms: “What you are now we used to be. What we are now you will be.”

Back upstairs and on the streets of Rome, the pleasures of Italy are immediate and accessible, but also complex. Without the darkness, the country might be as bland asSweden. Looking at Italy through the gothic lens deepens our appreciation of the pain, suffering and death that is, along with love, ease and light, also man’s lot. The hellward pull of Thanatos on Italy’s Eros, the artful dance between these archetypal opposites, is surely one of Italy’s great enchantments.

A Walk on the Dark Side

Otranto

LODGING

The luxurious, nine-room Palazzo Papaleo overlooks the cathedral. It’s a block from the beach, and a few doors away from some of the best restaurants. (Via Rondachi, 1; 39-083-802-108; hotelpalazzopapaleo.com; from 162 euros, about $218 at $1.35 to the euro.)

FOOD

There is ambrosial food at Peccato del Vino (39-0836-801-488; eccatodivino.com). For local favorites try La Pignata (Via Garibaldi, 7; 39-0836-01284).

GUIDES

Francesco Calignano (Francesco.calignano@yahoo.it)

Naples

LODGING

Chiaja Hotel de Charme, in a former bordello, is found through a walled courtyard and up an arched staircase. This small hotel offers the bare minimum — clean, small rooms with bathrooms — but is well situated, just off the main Via Toledo strip, walking distance to the medieval quarter, the Farnese Collection, shopping and food. (Via Chiaia, 216; 39-081-415-555; from 50 euros.)

FOOD

Hosteria Toledo run by the Preziosa family. On Sunday afternoons, anyone can walk in without reservations and grab a table alongside jolly family groups sharing a leisurely and delicious meal of fresh seafood and pasta. Try the dry local wine called Greco di Tufo. (Vico Giardinetto a Toledo, 9; 39-081-421-257; hosteriatoledo.it.)

Pizzeria Sorbillo, where the lines are long, is said to offer the “best pizza in Naples,” and is absolutely worth the wait. (Via dei Tribunali, 38; 39-081-033-1009; sorbillo.eu/.)

Augustus: the black-suited waiters can’t keep up with demand from patrons selecting colorful sweets from the glass case below the bar at this sweet shop. (Via Toledo, 47; 39-081-551-3540.)

SHOPPING

Via Toledo is home to excellent shops, and also to sidewalk offerings of excellent fake designer purses that are bundled up every time a police car goes past. A short bus ride to the Mercato di Pugliano on Via Pugliano in the Ercolano neighborhood takes you to what is reputedly Italy’s favorite vintage market. The shop called Old Star supposedly has a secret stash upstairs that customers in the know must ask to see.

GUIDES

For superior tours of Umbria and southern Italy, contact Anne Robichaud of Anne’s Italy (annesitaly.com).

Rome

LODGING

Locanda Carmel, in Trastevere, which I like as a base of operations, is a block from the tram that runs over the river to Piazza Argentina, from which there is easy walking or a bus to all the main Roman sites. (Via Goffredo Mameli, 11; 39-06-580-9921;hotelcarmel.it; from 50 euros.)

Hotel Aldrovandi, near the Villa Borghese, is high-end and has a beautiful pool — a requirement in summertime. (Via Ulisse Aldrovandi, 15; aldrovandi.com; 39-06-322-3993; from 287 euros.)

FOOD

Ai Spagheteria offers basic pasta and pizza in Trastevere, moderately priced. (Piazza di San Cosimato, 57-60; 39-06-580-0450; aispaghettari.it.)

Otello alla Concordia serves fantastic food, with outdoor and indoor seating tucked in an alley near the Spanish Steps. I have never had a bad meal here. (Via della Croce, 81; 39-06-679-1178; otello-alla-concordia.it.)

NINA BURLEIGH experienced the gothic side of Italy while researching her latest book, “The Fatal Gift of Beauty: The Trials of Amanda Knox” (Broadway).

A version of this article appeared in print on October 30, 2011, on page TR1 of the New York edition with the headline: Italian Gothic