Democracy stays: Brazilian presidential elections highlight precarity of civil-military relations
Janes, 27-Sep-2022
Author: Pablo Uchoa,
UK Publication: Jane's Intelligence Review
Key points
Opinion polls consistently rank Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro below his challenger, with former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva widening the difference between them to approximately 15 points and edging closer to winning in the first round on 2 October
A victory for Lula in the first round would be highly likely to lead to a smooth democratic transfer of power in 2023, yet such likelihood would decrease if a second round takes place on 30 October, as Bolsonaro will be poised to ramp up the rhetoric and renew the criticism against the voting system
Despite Bolsonaro's attempts to discredit the electoral process and his refusal to commit to accepting the electoral results if he loses, the likelihood that Brazilian security forces would back his disregard of the election has declined during the preceding 12 months, since Bolsonaro has been unable to find enough support to trigger an institutional rupture if he loses
UPDATED
Brazil marked 200 years of its independence on 7 September, with supporters of President Jair Bolsonaro using the day to hold a political rally. A civil-military parade in the capital, Brasília, and a military display in Rio de Janeiro were the backdrop for political acts in support of the president, who is seeking a second four-year term in elections scheduled for 2 October. At the time of publication, Bolsonaro was trailing his main rival, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, by approximately 15 points in opinion polls by pollsters including Datafolha, Ipec, and Ipespe.
In Brasília, a section of the civil-military parade featured tractors, representing the agribusiness sector's political support of the president. The second main event took place in Rio de Janeiro, with a full military display including a navy parade in Guanabara Bay, a demonstration by paratroopers, an air show by the air force acrobatic team, and a 21-gun salute. The scale of these events contrasted sharply with that in the previous years, which were held in a less prominent location in central Rio.
Bolsonaro gave two public speeches during the day. While addressing thousands of supporters in Brasilia, Bolsonaro struck a strongly religious note, targeting evangelical voters. He called Brazil “a promised land” and said he was following “a mission that god gave me”. Bolsonaro also listed what he considered the main achievements of his government and added that his objective for the country was “eternal freedom”.
Bolsonaro explicitly targeted the previous Lula administration, by describing the upcoming elections as “a struggle between good and evil”. The president claimed that “evil” had governed Brazil for 14 years, referring to Lula's Workers' Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores: PT), and vowed to stop the PT from “returning to their crime scene”.
In contrast with the previous occasions, Bolsonaro did not directly attack justices of the Supreme Court (Supremo Tribunal Federal: STF), however, he made strategic stops during his speech while supporters called for both Lula and Alexandre Moraes, the president of Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral: TSE), to be jailed. Several attendees this year were pictured with signs calling on the president to shut down Congress, dismiss the courts, and enable the armed forces to grab power.
Bolsonaro said, “The will of the people will be known on 2 October” and added, “The voice of the people is the voice of god.” He gave a similar version of this speech in Rio later in the day, ramping up the tone of the attacks against Lula and promising to “extirpate” the left from politics.
Failed test
Polls released after the event suggested that it did not have the intended effect on the electorate, with the president failing to attract new voters while the distance between him and Lula grows. Political observers in Brazilian mainstream media, including Globonews, Folha de S.Paulo , UOL, and CNN Brasil, noted that, although dignitaries from Portuguese-speaking countries attended the celebrations in Brasilia as part of the expected protocol, domestic senior political figures, including the president of the Supreme Court, Luiz Fux, the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco, and the lower chamber, Arthur Lira, were not present despite being invited. Bolsonaro was flanked by Silas Malafaia, evangelical pastor, and Luciano Hang, a billionaire businessman under federal police investigation for allegedly trying to articulate a military intervention along with other businesspeople on WhatsApp.
Juliano da Silva Cortinhas, a former defence adviser at the Secretariat of Strategic Affairs of the Presidency between 2012 and 2013, chief of staff of Instituto Pandiá Calógeras of the Ministry of Defence between 2013 and 2016, and co-ordinator of the Group of Studies and Research in International Security at the University of Brasília (Grupo de Estudos e Pesquisas em Segurança Internacional: GEPSI/ UnB), told Janes on 8 September that the president demonstrated a strong ability to mobilise supporters, more than any other politician in Brazil today. Conversely, Cortinhas added that the main event in Brasilia was planned well in advance and relied on financial support from businesspeople who funded the deployment of pro-Bolsonaro groups to the federal capital. In addition, Cortinhas stated that Bolsonaro's “undeniable use of public money to fund his campaign” could create legal problems for him in the future. Indeed, the TSE ruled on 10 September that Bolsonaro was not allowed to use images of the event in his campaign, considering that the event had a clear electoral message.
Tensions between Bolsonaro and his political ally Ibaneis Rocha, governor of the Federal District and commander-in-chief of the Military Police in the federative unit, emerged in the lead-up to the rally. Two days before the event, Rocha ordered that Brasilia's central axis, the Esplanada dos Ministérios, be closed to traffic on security grounds. Ahead of the parade in 2021, unauthorised supporters of Bolsonaro removed several protective barriers on the Esplanada, creating a security breach especially affecting the Supreme Court, which had been targeted with fireworks by Bolsonaro supporters in June 2020. Bolsonaro had asked the army to enable approximately 50 trucks to access the site of the 2022 parade, but Rocha stood by his previous order and kept the security plan in place, with the trucks remaining outside the security perimeter. According to Cortinhas, the outcome suggested that Bolsonaro does not enjoy the institutional support of the military police in the Federal District, which had been criticised in 2021 for doing little to prevent supporters of the president from disrupting Independence Day celebrations.
Election challenge
A poll conducted by Brazilian consultancy firm Research Intelligence and Strategic Consulting (Inteligência em Pesquisa e Consultoria Estratégica: IPEC) and commissioned by TV Globo on 19 September suggested that Bolsonaro trails Lula in the polls by 15 points (31% to 47%, respectively). Another poll by Datafolha published on 15 September suggested a narrower but still significant 12-point margin (45% to 33%). Both polls put Bolsonaro's disapproval ratings at approximately 50% among all voters, but higher among women and people on low incomes who earn less than two minimum wages (approximately USD230 per month) . A personal attack on a female journalist, Vera Magalhães, after she asked him a challenging question during the first televised presidential debate on 28 August 2022, appears to have played particularly badly with female voters.
Approximately 50% of voters in the Southeast region, which concentrates the largest share of voters, also disapprove of Bolsonaro. The polling therefore indicates that Lula is likely to reach more than 50% of votes in the first round and avoid a run-off on 30 October. If a run-off takes place, Lula is predicted by both polls to win a second round against Bolsonaro by 54%–35% according to IPEC.
To make his position more tenuous, the president is under scrutiny over alleged property deals involving his family, as revealed by a seven-month-long investigation by the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper published on 30 August. According to Folha , members of the Bolsonaro family allegedly used large sums of cash to purchase 51 properties, including flats, houses, and plots of land across the country between 1990 and 2022. The 51 properties are part of 107 purchased by the family for the equivalent in 2022 of BRL25.6 million (USD4.8 million), of which BRL11.1 million (USD2.08 million) was paid in cash. Bolsonaro claims he is not involved in his family affairs and on 18 September, on a visit to London, he denied using cash to make the purchases, during an interview with TV network SBT. He said, “On all the certificates, it says ‘current currency'. It is not written ‘cash'. It can be cash, it can be cheque, bank transfer, anything.”
Despite these challenges for Bolsonaro, if he is able to reach the second round of voting during the presidential election, it significantly increases his chance of countering pre-election polling trends. In August 2022 the government increased a handout paid monthly to families in the lower-income bracket, known as Auxilio Brasil, from BRL400 to BRL600 (USD75 to USD112) to ease the effect of food and fuel price increases. On 7 September, Bolsonaro promised an extra BRL200 (USD38) to people who find a job while receiving the benefit, pledging to keep the payments into 2023, however, the government did not set aside funds to finance this expense in a budget proposal sent to Congress.
The payments do not appear to have significantly affected Bolsonaro's performance in the polls, but Leonardo Sakamoto, a political commentator in São Paulo, told Janes on 27 August that it was too soon to gauge the effect with voters. He said, “In the initial moment, people use this money to pay their bills and ease their debts ... [The] feeling of wellbeing kicks in [later], it is not immediate. If Bolsonaro is given an extra month to campaign, he'll heap more benefits [from it],” Sakamoto said.
Rupture scenarios
Bolsonaro has repeatedly suggested that he would reject the election results if he were to lose on 2 October. Throughout his term, Bolsonaro has questioned the integrity of the ballot process. In July 2021 he suggested, without evidence, that electronic voting machines are not trustworthy, despite the fact that no fraud has ever been proven since machine voting was first adopted in Brazil in 1996.
On 7 August 2022 Bolsonaro called for institutions to enable the armed forces to conduct “parallel counting” of the vote, which is outside of its jurisdiction as set out in the constitution. Voting machines are audited before, during, and after the elections, and Congress rejected a government bill to introduce printed ballots in August 2021, prompting the former president of TSE, Luís Barroso, to label the controversy “water under the bridge” in December 2021.
Bolsonaro has nevertheless continued to discredit the electoral process and, during an interview with Brazil's most-watched television news Jornal Nacional on 22 August, he refused to commit to accepting the results if he loses. Minister of Defence General Paulo Nogueira had asked Moraes to enable the armed forces access to real-time data during vote counting, but the TSE firmly denied this possibility on 12 September, reiterating that vote counting is the constitutional responsibility of electoral authorities. The TSE nevertheless agreed to put in place a pilot project to use voters' biometric data to test a small sample of electronic voting machines on the election day, after being suggested by the Ministry of Defence. Cortinhas told Janes that the last 12 months had been “a moment of greater tension in civil-military relations” with “the constant being the participation of the armed forces in national politics”.
There are signs that the likelihood that the armed forces, or any other security forces, would back Bolsonaro if he decided to disregard the election has declined during the preceding 12 months. An internal report produced for the armed forces detailed the political position of its senior members, military police commanders, and some politicians. The left-leaning media outlet Brasil 247 published parts of the report on 6 September, and details were also discussed with Janes by a journalist with access to the material who requested anonymity. The journalist suggested that army commanders were the least likely to endorse Bolsonaro's attacks against the voting system, with much of the military's high command showing “low” and “very low” adherence to the president's allegations. The report, quoted by Brasil 247 , classed the commanders of the navy, Admiral Almir Garnier Santos, and the air force, Air Brigadier Lieutenant Carlos de Almeida Baptista Junior, as “highly” aligned with Bolsonaro's claims, along with mid-ranking officers.
The source told Janes that pro-Bolsonaro officers lacked both “leadership” and “a clear plan” to trigger an institutional rupture to favour the president. “It seems to me a mistake to understand the military as a group, a cohesive body, with an idea in their heads of what they want. They don't think as a unit,” the source said. In April 2018 the then army commander, General Eduardo Villas-Bôas, posted a tweet that was seen as a threat of intervention on the eve of a crucial Supreme Court decision on whether or not to allow Lula to remain free while appealing a conviction for corruption. The general, who later became a special adviser under Bolsonaro, acknowledged in a book interview with FGV military anthropologist Celso Castro, published in 2021, that it was a concerted effort to put the armed forces back on the forefront of Brazilian politics. However, the source told Janes that the army now lacks the political leadership that Gen Villas-Bôas represented, despite this role clashing with his constitutional duties.
Significantly, the analysis of the internal report indicated that all but two corps among the military police could be considered strongly bolsonaristas , with 14 of them under the control of state governments, notably São Paulo, according to the source. These forces would be crucial to any plan to destabilise the elections, given the improbability of the army staging a power grab in Brazil. Instead, it is more likely that Bolsonaro would opt to discredit the elections on the eve or immediately after the vote, and rally his supporters onto the streets, claiming to protect democracy and freedom. This would then lead to a scenario similar to the attack on the US Capitol on 6 January 2021 but, instead of acting to prevent chaos, the police forces would stand by and watch. The Supreme Court would have no option but to request an operation known as guarantee of law and order (Garantia da Lei e da Ordem: GLO), enabling the armed forces to act as police and opening the door for a military takeover.
Scenarios like the one described above are nowadays considered less likely to unfold, said Cortinhas. Nevertheless, he noted, “We continue with this tension in the electoral process. If Bolsonaro manages to get to the second round, we will have the apex of this tension. If Lula is elected in the first round, I think things will ease.”
Several violent incidents involving supporters for both main candidates have illustrated the potential for increased violence ahead of the election. On 9 September a Bolsonaro supporter stabbed to death a backer of Lula in the west-central state of Mato Grosso. In July, a local PT official was shot dead at his birthday party by a prison guard shouting “Bolsonaro”. Bolsonaro supporters have also claimed to have been attacked by PT supporters. Although Bolsonaro has distanced himself from such incidents, Lula has called the “climate of hatred in the electoral process ... completely abnormal” and suggested that it was part of “a political strategy”.
Support for democracy
As voting day approaches, it appears that Bolsonaro has been unable to find enough support, either in the military or civil society, to trigger an institutional rupture if he loses. In contrast, support for democracy has been widespread. Some of the strongest demonstrations took place across the country on 11 August, during which politicians, artists, intellectuals, public figures, and business leaders led people to read manifestoes in favour of democracy.
One of the most influential pro-democracy manifestoes, signed by more than one hundred entities including the Brazilian Banking Federation (Federação Brasileira de Bancos: Febraban), the National Industry Confederation (Confederação Nacional da Indústria: CNI), the National Confederation of Trade (Confederação Nacional do Comércio de Bens, Serviços e Turismo: CNC), and the National Confederation of Transport (Confederação Nacional do Transporte: CNT), the American Chamber (Amcham), as well as the largest unions, was organised by the confederation of industries of São Paulo (Federação das Indústrias de São Paulo: FIESP) whose members account for one-third of the national GDP, according to the news outlet Exame on 4 August. Another manifesto entitled “Letter to Brazilians” gathered more than one million signatures and was read out loud to a cheering crowd at the University of São Paulo law school, the same place where a similar manifesto was read in 1977 to denounce the country's military government at the time.
A strong sign of support for Brazilian democracy also came from abroad after Bolsonaro invited about 70 diplomats, including dozens of ambassadors, according to Brazilian media, to the presidential palace on 18 July. Bolsonaro rehashed false claims about the electoral system and mounted an attack on Brazil's electoral system without presenting any evidence to back his claims. According to the New York Times ' article of 19 July, citing two diplomats who spoke on the condition of anonymity, many were “shaken by the presentation”, particularly at Bolsonaro's suggestion to increase the involvement of the military to improve “transparency”, and some worried that Bolsonaro was trying to “lay the groundwork” to dispute election results if he loses.
Following this event, various foreign governments, including the US, have expressed their trust in the Brazilian electoral system. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre reiterated this position on 7 September, saying, “The United States trusts in the strength of Brazil's democratic institutions. Brazil has a strong track record of free and fair elections, which are conducted with transparency, and high levels of voter participation. The elections that have been conducted by Brazil's capable and time-tested electoral system and democratic institutions serve as a model for nations in the hemisphere and across the world.”
Paulo Roberto de Almeida, a former diplomat, professor, and adviser to the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI), told Janes on 15 August that after this fruitless event, any chance of Bolsonaro finding international support for institutional rupture is “doomed”. He said, “I think this is a closed chapter. [The meeting] exposed Bolsonaro to ridicule.”
Almeida pointed out that US support for Brazilian democracy carries heavy weight, because being at odds with the US government would come at a cost for the military. “Today, we have military personnel who have been co-operating with the United States for a long time and who consider it very positive that Bolsonaro obtained an extra-NATO ally status for Brazil from Trump. The military has the need to exchange information, to have access to weapons and to be aligned with partners who can co-operate in terms of technology, training, equipment supply, co-operation etc. The Brazilian military knows that if there is any attempt of military intervention, Brazil would be isolated diplomatically, militarily, and economically.”
Support for Bolsonaro continues to be solid among members of the armed forces, who resent Lula and PT governments for the 2011–14 national truth commission that held critical views of the 1964–85 military regime. Almeida, among other political observers in Brazil, does not believe it is enough for the institution to back an anti-democratic adventure by Bolsonaro. Almeida said, “[The military] want to keep the material gains achieved under Bolsonaro, but without a break with democracy or the law, because it would have a very high cost for Brazil and for them. Sure, they would like Bolsonaro to continue, but they will not follow him into an extra-constitutional adventure.”
However, within two weeks of the vote, he dialled up the rhetoric once more, telling supporters during a visit to London on 18 September that “there is no way we will not win in the first round”, citing the “simply exceptional” welcome he receives from voters in the campaign trail. He also told SBT on the same day that “if I get less than 60% of votes, [it means] something abnormal happened in the TSE”.
Given the president's refusal to commit to accepting election results, such comments should not be dismissed as purely campaign rhetoric. They could lead to localised clashes between his supporters and Lula supporters before, during, and after the election. However, it is looking less likely that the president could count on widespread support from the armed forces and state-wide police forces to disregard election results.
A victory for Lula in the first round would be highly likely to lead to a smooth democratic transfer of power in 2023. This likelihood would decrease if a second round takes place on 30 October, as Bolsonaro will be poised to ramp up the rhetoric and renew the criticism against the voting system. He could reap more benefits from handouts paid monthly to families in lower incomes, which have so far made little difference to his performance.
For the armed forces, a Lula government in 2023 would not lead to a full-scale withdrawal from politics, but Cortinhas believes the military would seek an accommodation with the former president, keeping the benefits achieved under Bolsonaro while agreeing to subordinate to a “precarious” civilian control. “The military will continue to be active in politics as they have in every moment of our history,” Cortinhas said. “They will put up some resistance in the beginning, but they will gradually accept the new rules.”
Pablo Uchoa is a journalist and PhD candidate on civil-military politics at the UCL Institute of the Americas in London.
Outlook |
Polls suggested Bolsonaro's comments on 7 September were badly received by voters, with Lula widening the difference between him and Bolsonaro to approximately 15 points and edging closer to winning in the first round on 2 October. Bolsonaro initially toned down this rhetoric, telling a poll of podcasters intended at young evangelical listeners on 13 September, “If it is god's will, I will continue [being president]. If not, we will pass the sash and I will retire, because at my age, I have nothing more to do here on earth if I end my time in politics on December 31 of this year.” |
