CDS Daily brief (16.02.2023)
CDS comments on key events
Centre for Defense Strategies
Military:
The enemy concentrates on conducting offensive actions in the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Shakhtarsk directions.
Change in enemy disposition:the enemy command is conducting a large-scale regrouping of units north of Bakhmut.
Possible operation situation developments: the enemy have exhausted their reserves, which slows down the start of a large-scale offensive in the east of Ukraine; the inability to restore battle-damaged military equipment in the short term will further limit the enemy's ability to conduct mobile operations at a high pace and wide scope.
International:
With a $7.4 billion pledge, Norway will become one of the world's biggest donors to Ukraine.
Gen. Mark Milley doesn't believe "Russia is going to overrun Ukraine." At the same time, though it is "extraordinarily difficult," Ukraine's success isn't something "to say that it can't happen." Secretary Austin assured the allies are doing everything for the Ukrainians to be "decisive on the battlefield."
Oleksii Danilov believes the Ukrainians will demolish Russia as they had done with the Soviet Union.
The Slovak Parliament has designated Putin's regime as a terrorist and Russia as a "state supporting terrorism."
Alexander Lukashenko engaged in demagogy by talking about Belarus joining the Russian war if a Ukrainian soldier crossed the border.
Energy
A night attack by missiles and drones will not lead to large-scale power outages, said Ukrenergo. Tonight's missile and drone attack was unsuccessful for the Russians; the Ukrainian power plants continue to produce enough electricity to cover the required consumption.
Russia has lost the ability to cause significant damage to Ukrainian energy facilities, said the head of Ukrenergo in an interview with Bloomberg on the eve of the last large-scale shelling on February 16. According to Vladimir Kudritsky, the power system's burden is weakening with spring and warming, and repair teams have learned to repair and replace transformers faster. "Currently, we have reached a plateau - there is no further deterioration of the situation," he noted. Nowadays, replacing damaged transformers takes four times less time than in the fall. The head of Ukrenergo also praised Ukraine's missile defense. At the same time, Kudritsky added, "we should not relax and think that Russia's airstrike campaign is over." He is sure that by next winter, Ukraine will accumulate a sufficient supply of transformers, both domestically produced and from foreign donors.
International diplomatic aspect
Norway has announced a five-year military and humanitarian assistance package to Ukraine worth $7.4 billion, making itself one of the world's biggest donors to Kyiv.
"It will be almost impossible for the Russians to achieve their political objectives by military means. It is unlikely that Russia is going to overrun Ukraine. It's just not going to happen," the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff believes. Meanwhile, Gen Mark Milley doesn't rule out Ukraine's success, "it's not to say that it can't happen ... But it's extraordinarily difficult. And it would require essentially the collapse of the Russian military." While Russian strength is in numbers, "our goal is to make sure that we give Ukraine additional capability so that they can be, not only be marginally successful, they can be decisive on the battlefield and their upcoming offensive," US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said at the NATO defense ministerial.
Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020 We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com
