O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

Mostrando postagens com marcador patifarias companheiras. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador patifarias companheiras. Mostrar todas as postagens

quinta-feira, 2 de outubro de 2014

E agora, noticias do mundo surreal: corrupcao e escandalos companheiros - Dom Philips (WP)

An oil scandal in Brazil complicates the race for incumbent president on eve of election


The Washington Post, October 2 at 3:30 AM
 
With just days to go before the presidential election here, a growing scandal has placed a number of issues center stage: They involve corruption, political machinations with the state-controlled oil company, and delays and overspending on a multibillion-dollar oil refinery that Brazil desperately needs.
A high-ranking former executive from Petrobras, the oil company, has just been released from jail to house arrest having turned state’s evidence.
His allegations have appeared in a steady stream in a weekly magazine, Veja — and they link payments in the refinery construction to politicians from incumbent President Dilma Rousseff’s Workers’ Party and other parties in Brazil’s ruling coalition.
The first round of voting takes place Sunday. In a three-way race, Rousseff and Marina Silva are the front-runners, with Rousseff edging ahead, according to polls. Brazilians tend to be cynical about politicians, but the Car Wash scandal reaches deep into the long-standing apparatus constructed by the Workers’ Party, and no one is sure where it will lead.
Rousseff, a former minister of mines and energy and chairwoman of the Petrobras board, takes pride in her management skills. But the image of competence she has constructed is now taking some dents.
The scandal cuts deep in another way: Rousseff’s strength is among Brazil’s working-class voters, but amidst all the alleged overspending and mismanagement associated with the delayed refinery construction, some workers have come to feel badly treated and complain about not getting paid.
Rousseff’s opponents have gone on the attack.
“It’s shameful,” said Aécio Neves, the third candidate in the race, in a television debate on Sunday, as he took aim at Rousseff. “The denunciations don’t cease.”
Millions of dollars were allegedly creamed off inflated contracts for the Abreu e Lima refinery being built near Recife in Northeast Brazil. The refinery is to start operating in November, three years late. Its cost has ballooned.
A second Petrobras refinery project — Comperj, near Rio — is four years behind schedule, double the projected cost and delayed by strikes.
Petrobras eventually paid $1.2 billion for a third refinery in Pasadena, Tex., after a long court battle that ended in 2012, seven years after its previous owners had bought it for just $42.5 million.
Complex scheme
While Brazil’s economy stutters, Petrobras hemorrhages cash importing the fuel Brazil can’t refine but urgently needs. And these enormous refineries have become emblematic of the barriers the country faces in building much-needed infrastructure — barriers created by mismanagement, corruption and overspending.
Prosecutors say the complex Car Wash scheme was run by Paulo Costa, now under house arrest and providing testimony, and money-changer Alberto Youssef, in custody. Police first arrested 28 people in March, having been alerted by “irregular” movements of $4 billion. Brazil’s Federal Court of Accounts has found overpayments of $99.2 million in just four contracts related to Abreu e Lima alone.
Evidence suggests “the possible involvement of various authorities… including federal parliamentarians,” a Supreme Court Judge wrote this week, in approving Costa’s state’s evidence deal.
Neves, the candidate for the Brazilian Social Democratic Party, alleges that Costa’s appointment in 2004 as a key Petrobras manager was political. “The corruption involving the company is much more serious than is being noticed,” a spokesman for Neves said in an e-mail interview.
Brazil’s rumbling economic problems — the country is in technical recession — are also a central theme of this election, and opposition candidates point a finger at falling investment and lack of infrastructure.
“There are people who were involved in the running of the company who are involved in this corruption scandal. That does affect people who are planning to invest in the country,” said Aditya Banerjee, an analyst at a commercial intelligence agency called Wood Mackenzie, in Houston.
Petrobras is keeping its distance from Costa, whose job put him in charge of refining, and who was replaced in 2012. “Petrobras, in the condition of victim, is attending all the requests of the authorities and collaborating with the investigations, as the main interested party in clarifying the facts,” a company representative said in an e-mail interview.
Delays to the Abreu e Lima refinery were “principally for the need to repeat bidding because of excessive prices and delays in the acquisition of critical equipment,” the representative said, and did not comment on the cost increase — from $2.5 billion to $18.5 billion.
“It’s twice as much as any other refinery. Any other refinery would cost around $10 billion. So that’s massive,” Banerjee said. “It’s not just Abreu e Lima, it’s also Comperj.”
The Comperj oil refinery project, being built in Itaboraí near Rio, is due to start operating in 2016. Its budget has doubled to $13.2 billion. Brazil’s Federal Court of Accounts has found overpayments in the tens of millions of dollars.

The delay was caused by an “unsuccessful business model of partnerships,” Petrobras said. “In each investigation process, Petrobras is presenting its defenses and technical clarifications and has been able to demonstrate adherence of its practices to the norms and regulations in force,” a company representative said.
Comperj was paralyzed by a 40-day wildcat strike earlier this year that was blighted by violence. Riot police were called, a union car was set on fire and, on Feb. 6, two workers were shot and injured.
The workers were on strike because they hadn’t been paid by their employer, a subcontractor, for months. Felipe Lima, a 22-year-old carpenter, was struck by two bullets. One went through his right hand; the other burst his pancreas. Rigger Françuelio Fernandes, 20, was shot in the hand and foot.
Speaking by phone from his home state of Ceará, in Brazil’s Northeast, Lima said he lives today on a sickness benefit and a one-time $2,000 payment from the construction-workers’ union. Money is tight. “I can’t work. My instrument of work is my hand,” he said.
Petrobras did not comment on the case as a police matter.
Worrying amount of debt
Money is increasingly tight for the oil company, too. Brazil is heavily reliant on road transport but can’t refine enough fuel to meet its rising domestic demand. Petrobras has to buy gasoline and diesel abroad at high international prices, which it sells at a loss because prices are fixed artificially low by the government to control inflation — currently running above target at 6.6 percent. This cost Petrobras a $1.5 billion loss over the past 12 months, according to figures calculated by the Brazilian Infrastructure Center, a Rio consultancy.
The Brazilian Oil, Gas & Biofuels Institute, IBP, recently called for fuel prices to be freed up. “The closer to international prices, the more they make investments viable,” said IBP president João Carlos de Luca in a phone interview. “Brazil needs refining.”
Rousseff’s opponents blame fuel price policy for hurting Petrobras, the environment and Brazil’s struggling ethanol sector, underpriced by cheap gasoline and diesel.
“We have a serious problem,” said Silva, from the Brazilian Socialist Party. “This is highly prejudicial to our country, and something the government needs to correct now.”
Petrobras’s ambitious development of Brazil’s ultra-deep water reserves, central to a $220.6 billion investment program, have also entered the fray. Rousseff attacked Silva, an environmentalist, as anti-oil.
The enormous costs of developing these reserves, coupled with the losses it incurs importing fuel, has put Petrobras in a worrying amount of debt — $114 billion at the end of 2013, according to Bloomberg.
But Petrobras is increasing production from those deep-water reserves. It promises to be producing 4 million barrels of oil a day, compared to the current 2.6 million.
Then they may finally be able to deal with their debts.
“Until then, we see things being pretty tight financially,” said Ruaraidh Montgomery, a senior analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Dom Phillips is The Post's correspondent in Rio de Janeiro. He has previously written for The Times, Guardian and Sunday Times.

terça-feira, 2 de julho de 2013

O governo "isperto" do PT e a Assembleia de Sabios Brasileiros - Me engana...

Cara de pau é com eles mesmos...
Os "ispertos" acham que todo mundo tem a obrigação de pertencer a uma Assembleia de Sabios, para saber o que é voto distrital, lista fechada, essas coisas.
Seguro aqui um palavrão.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Plebiscito é golpe
Carta ao Leitor
Veja, 3/07/2013

O plebiscito proposto pelo governo e pelo PT é um golpismo por diversos motivos. Primeiro porque, se ninguém de bom-senso discorda da tese de que o Brasil precisa de uma reforma do sistema político, também não se encontra ninguém igualmente sensato que ache que isso deva ser feito via consulta popular. Segundo, porque a iniciativa é uma tentativa rasteira do PT e do governo de mudar de assunto, de lançar uma cortina de fumaça entre eles e os clamores populares. Se há uma coisa que os manifestantes têm demonstrado à exaustão é que os brasileiros estão cansados de golpes baixos e promessas vãs. Terceiro, porque não se faz plebiscito para jogar nos ombros das pessoas o peso de decisões sobre o funcionamento de coisas complexas. As pessoas não podem ser obrigadas a decidir exatamente como as instituições devem funcionar. Elas querem simplesmente que as instituições funcionem bem, que os funcionários públicos sejam honestos, imparciais e eficientes. que os políticos representem seus eleitores nas assembleias e no Congresso. Uma reportagem desta edição revela que o PT e o governo não estão genuinamente interessados na consulta popular. Eles querem mesmo é usar o tempo de televisão destinado à discussão das questões a ser propostas no plebiscito para colocar Lula fazendo propaganda da presidente Dilma Rousseff, a candidata do partido à reeleição em 2014. Isso é inaceitável.


Os brasileiros foram às ruas exigir a reforma dos políticos, não uma reforma política. Com seus cânticos, suas faixas e cartazes, as pessoas cobraram honestidade, transparência e eficiência dos políticos e das autoridades de todos os níveis e partidos. Elas exigiram, principalmente, o fim da corrupção. Ora. não requer muito tirocínio concluir que esses anseios podem e precisam ser atendidos imediatamente, na vigência do atual sistema político. Não há razão alguma para que os políticos e as autoridades não possam começar desde já a ser e parecer honestos e funcionais. É escárnio fingir que isso só é possível depois de um plebiscito em que se vai exigir dos brasileiros uma opinião sobre tecnicalidades de funcionamento das engrenagens eleitorais. Isso equivale a médicos perguntarem a familiares de um paciente de UTI se eles estão de acordo com os remédios perfundidos ou com a porcentagem de oxigênio no tubo traqueal. Obviamente, eles não vão saber responder. Mas isso não torna menos justo seu direito de que o paciente tenha o tratamento adequado.  Assim deve ser em relação às instituições. Não se pode colocar como pré-requisito para a honestidade, eficiência e transparência delas que as pessoas sejam experts em detalhes de seu funcionamento. Erigir isso é iludir a plateia. E a plateia tem demonstrado com todo o vigor que se cansou de ser iludida.

Querida: encolheram (eu encolhi) a minha fortuna: US 2 milhoes por hora...


Um analista de mercado, que me chama pelo meu primeiro nome, e que gostaria de me ter como seus clientes (eu não tenho milhões para investir, mas ele não sabe disso, por isso deixo que me envie suas propostas "atrativas"), me manda a "sua" (dele) história do nosso capitalista promíscuo.
Eu sempre acho que se aprende mais nas derrotas, nos fracassos, do que nos momentos de glória. Por isso, aí vai a história do nosso mais importante futuro-ex maior bilionário do mundo (uma categoria já muito frequentada, estamos esperando agora o primeiro trilionário...)
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

The Man Who Lost $2 Million an Hour!
By Evaldo Albuquerque, Editor of Pure Income

Dear Paulo Roberto,
Last year, he lost about $19.4 BILLION!

That’s more than $2 million per hour.
What a terrible year. And this year, it’s not getting any better.
So far he’s lost another $10.3 billion.
That’s a total loss of $29.7 billion in less than two years. But, according to Forbes, he’s still worth about $4.8 billion … so there’s no need to feel sorry for this “poor” guy.
He only has himself to blame. He’s the one who made such bad investment decisions.
And I’m about to tell you his story because the collapse of his empire can teach us a powerful investment lesson...

His name is Eike Batista.

I wouldn’t be surprised if you’ve never heard of the man. He’s not very popular here in the U.S. But in Brazil, where Batista and I were born, he’s a celebrity.

Last year, he made news around the globe when he said: “I will be the world’s richest man.” At that time, he was the world’s 7th richest man.
After losing a big chunk of his fortune last year, he’s now ranked No. 100.

Today, he’s not even one of the top three richest Brazilians. And if you invested in one of his companies, you’re probably hurting too. But there is an important lesson to be learned here. When it comes to investing, timing is everything. You must know the right moment to get in and out of certain sectors and asset classes.

Unfortunately, a lot of people still follow the flawed “buy and hold” approach and end up getting caught in disastrous losses, such as the ones experienced by Mr. Batista. 
A PowerPoint Billionaire
Back in 2010, every investor in Brazil was talking about OGX, MMX, OSX, LLX and MPX. Those are the names of Batista’s companies.

They all had big rallies that year. For example, OGX, his oil company, rallied 750% from November 2008 to November 2010. Some analysts in Brazil were even calling that group of stocks “the Eike bubble.”

So, I decided to travel to Brazil to check what all the fuss was about. In the summer of 2010, I met with executives of each one of those companies.

We were all sitting at a big round table. During the meeting, the executives took turns giving PowerPoint presentations about each of their companies. Even though I had never invested a penny in his companies, I felt like I was a very important shareholder.

I was impressed by the quality of the presentations … but not by the numbers.

Immediately after I left the meeting, I turned to Justin Ford, a colleague who’d traveled with me, and said: “I don’t like any of those companies, but they do have a great PR team.”

Although Batista’s companies had all rallied hundreds of percentage points, they were not making any money. I felt his companies were nothing more than projects … promises that investors would get rich … castles made of paper.

Some savvy analyst in Brazil, who saw the writing on the wall, even came up with this joke: “Besides Bill Gates, who became a billionaire thanks to PowerPoint presentations?”

The chart below shows how his companies have performed in the past year or so. The best performing company, LLX, is down 73%. The worst performing, OGX, had dropped 90%. And the price of bonds from OGX suggests default is imminent. 
Batista’s Wealth Has Evaporated in the Last Couple of Years

Now We Know Who Was Swimming Naked
Warren Buffett once said: “When the tide goes out, you learn who's been swimming naked."

Commodities have been extremely weak for the past couple of years. This, in part, explains why Batista has lost so much money. All his companies were commodity-based businesses, including an oil driller, a mining company, an electricity producer and a port operator.

The "tide" in commodities is out. Batista had been swimming naked.

In fact, it seems the whole country of Brazil had been swimming naked. During the decade-long commodities boom, both Batista and the Brazilian economy grew wealthier.

Now Batista has lost billions. And growth has basically stagnated in Brazil.

That’s why I told you back in April to avoid Brazilian stocks. Since then, they’ve fallen another 20%.

In that same article, I also told you how inflation in Brazil was getting out of control. And that’s essentially what has triggered the recent street protests that made news last month.

So keep in mind that successful investing involves knowing when to avoid certain sectors and when to jump in. If you used the traditional “buy and hold” approach regarding Batista’s companies and the Brazilian commodities boom, you would have lost your shirt.

Right now, I would avoid any investments that are related to commodities. Of course, at some point this trend of weak commodities will change. But the key is to know when to jump back in.

I will be on the lookout for the most opportune moment to make this jump and will be letting you know when to do it.
Regards,

Evaldo Albuquerque
Editor, Pure Income