The Russia-China Axis - Stuart Reid (Foreign Affairs)

The Russia-China Axis

Stuart Reid

Senior Fellow for History and Foreign Policy and Associate Vice President of Studies

Foreign Affairs, August-September 2026

In May 2026, when Xi Jinping hosted Vladimir Putin in Beijing, it was the forty-fifth time the two had met in person—give or take. Xi and Putin have seen each other so often that even analysts cannot agree on the exact number.

The increasing affinity between China and Russia is among the most consequential geopolitical developments of the last decade. Although the two powers have their differences, on every metric—economic, military, political, rhetorical—the general direction has been toward alignment rather than estrangement. That presents a problem for the United States, which since World War II has never had to contend with a pair of adversaries this powerful.

While it is tempting to believe that Washington can solve this dilemma by splitting Beijing and Moscow, the bond between them is unlikely to break. Accepting that reality is easy; dealing with it is not. The United States needs to push back against coercion and aggression by both powers, without driving them closer together. It needs to address today’s challenge in Ukraine, without neglecting tomorrow’s in Taiwan. And it needs to deter new wars in eastern Europe and East Asia, without unintentionally provoking one.

Even though it is sometimes dismissed as a temporary axis of convenience, the Chinese-Russian partnership has proved deep and durable. China has been Russia’s largest trade partner for more than a decade, sending it manufactured goods in exchange for oil and gas. The two countries’ militaries regularly conduct joint exercises in the Arctic and South China Sea. Beijing has helped Moscow circumvent Western export controls by providing advanced technologies, from chips to drone parts, essential for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

One has to go back to the early 1950s, the golden era of Sino-Soviet relations, to find such amity. China and the Soviet Union were formal treaty allies and partners in the Korean War. More than ten thousand Soviet experts flooded into China to help the country modernize. But by the end of the decade, the Sino-Soviet alliance was dead in all but name, done in by a combination of ideological disputes, divergent visions of how to deal with the West, and a personality clash between Mao Zedong and Nikita Khrushchev. In 1969, the two countries even fought a deadly border skirmish that nearly ignited an outright war.

Although the Chinese-Russian partnership is not as close as it was in the 1950s, it also lacks the irritants that bedeviled the relationship back then. One was ideological. Stalin viewed Mao as a “caveman Marxist,” while Mao viewed Stalin’s eventual successor, Khrushchev, as intellectually inferior. But now that Russia is no longer communist (and China isn’t either, in the classical sense), who has the authority to interpret Marxism is no longer a bone of contention. A less doctrinal glue adheres Putin and Xi: an obsession with preserving their authoritarian regimes, a determination to resist the forces of liberal democracy, and a confidence in American decline.

Another Cold War wedge issue was the question of how to deal with the American hegemon. Khrushchev advocated “peaceful coexistence”; Mao preferred aggressive confrontation. Today, Moscow and Beijing openly agree on the goal of contesting U.S. influence, even if they adopt different tactics. In 2022, on the eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin and Xi released a joint communiqué in which they denounced American “hegemony” and pledged to “advance multipolarity.”

There is also an undeniable human element to today’s partnership. Mao and Khrushchev despised each other. Putin and Xi, by contrast, make a show of exchanging hugs and birthday greetings, leading some analysts to declare a “strategic bromance.” “I have a similar personality to yours,” Xi once told Putin. As the scholars Michael McFaul and Evan Medeiros have written, “They like each other—or if they do not, they are very good at faking it.”

Yes, there are tensions. It is an unequal partnership, given that China’s economy is nearly nine times the size of Russia’s and far more diversified. Xi seeks to bend the international order to China’s advantage; Putin wants to break it. The two countries’ voting records at the United Nations are not perfectly aligned. China is edging Russia out of Central Asia. Chinese spies are actively trying to steal Russian military secrets, and Russia’s security services privately call the Chinese “the enemy.” China resents Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling. The partnership that Putin and Xi hailed as “no limits” has its limits.

But such friction is common to many alliances, and it is manageable. Some officials still fantasize that the United States can pull off a “reverse Kissinger”—peeling Russia from China the way the Nixon administration laid the groundwork for normalizing relations with China in order to balance against the Soviet Union. “I’m going to have to un-unite them,” President Donald Trump said before taking office for the second time. That is unrealistic. Unlike in the 1970s, there is not a split to exploit.

U.S. grand strategy must therefore accommodate the reality that the two great Eurasian powers have joined forces. The goal should be to avoid driving them further into each other’s arms. The problem, however, is that many of Washington’s preferred tools for constraining one country end up empowering the other or otherwise backfiring. Sanctions on Russia have caused it to reorient its economy toward China, becoming more dependent on it as a supplier of goods, a buyer of oil, and a channel for finance. The freezing of Russian assets held in Western banks accelerated China’s efforts to reduce its exposure to the U.S. dollar. U.S. export controls on China have pushed it to rely more on Russia for energy and raw materials. Moreover, deterring war in one theater necessarily detracts from doing so in the other; every dollar spent defending Taiwan is a dollar not spent in Ukraine. Such are the dilemmas of a dual threat.

In a two-adversary world, a traditional source of American strength becomes even more valuable: the U.S. alliance system. By souring the Europeans on China, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, conducted with tacit Chinese support, did what years of American diplomacy could not do. Trump, with his tariffs and threats to invade Greenland, has jeopardized this strategic gift. The United States will need all the help it can get in containing China and Russia. A regional division of labor would allow the United States to prioritize Asia without abandoning Europe—and, as an added benefit, reduce the need for the sort of maximal, simultaneous pressure that draws Beijing and Moscow together.

As it has often done, the United States should push back against Chinese and Russian revisionism, taking care not to provoke its nuclear-armed adversaries. But the unsatisfying truth is that given all the dilemmas inherent in countering this twin challenge, a major element of any successful strategy is simple patience. Russia is a declining power with a one-trick economy. China, though much stronger, is deeply indebted and growing slowly. Both are in long-term demographic decline. Both have a fundamentally unpopular type of political system. Both lack allies. Both are led by “presidents for life” in their seventies.

Time favors the United States, which, for all its current turmoil, boasts deep wells of geographic, technological, demographic, and economic advantages. As the economist Adam Smith once put it, “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation.”

The World according to Madame IA, supostamente encarnando este blogueiro - Paulo Roberto de Almeida

 Não sou espírita, não acredito em reencarnação – CORRIJO: NÃO EXISTE reencarnação –, não sou sequer religioso, nem torcedor de qualquer time ou membro de qualquer partido político, mas parece que Madame IA – reencarnada como Gemini AI, e orquestrada pelo habil manipulador de inteligências frágeis, que se esconde sob o acrônimo de ADL – reencarnou em mim e traçou um panorama desolador da atualidade geopolítica e das turbulências atuais, com base, supostamente, em meus conceitos e alguns cacoetee que exibo frequentemente nestas paragens.
O resultado segue abaixo, mas depois vou corrigir minha reencarnação, isto é, Madame IA, em torno de alguns conceitos e características de meus argumentos. Mas, por enquanto, segue como Madame IA interpretou minha análise do sistema internacional. PRA (19/08/2026)

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18/08/2026, 23:53
Incorpore o estilo de escrita, as ideias e opiniões e a linha de
pensamento (corrente de raciocínio argumentativo) do
diplomata, professor, escritor e blogueiro Paulo Roberto de
Almeida (o 'PRA', administrador do blog Diplomatizzando).
Concluída a 'incorporação', apresente um texto discursivo
(frases e parágrafos) sobre o cenário atual da geopolítica. O
texto deverá ter, no mínimo, 5500 caracteres; deverá abordar o
maior número possível de fatos relevantes na geopolítica atual.

=========== 
O Despautério Global e a Erosão da Ordem Liberal: Reflexões Racionais sobre a Anarquia Contemporânea
Por Paulo Roberto de Almeida (PRA)

Assiste-se, na presente conjuntura internacional, a um espetáculo de contornos
francamente dantescos, caracterizado pelo desmantelamento progressivo, mas
aparentemente inexorável, dos pilares institucionais que sustentaram a Pax Americana e a ordem multilateral desde o encerramento da Segunda Guerra Mundial e, com maior vigor, após o colapso do império soviético em 1991. Para um observador minimamente imbuído de espírito crítico, despido das lentes deformantes do voluntarismo ideológico e das paixões partidárias vulgares, o cenário geopolítico deste terceiro decênio do século XXI revela uma transição caótica em direção a uma anarquia hobbesiana, onde o direito internacional é reiteradamente sacrificado no altar do realismo bruto e do revisionismo autocrático.
Como tenho sistematicamente insistido nas páginas do meu blog Diplomatizzando, a
diplomacia não opera no vácuo das belas intenções ou dos discursos grandiloquentes
inflamados por um romantismo terceiro-mundista obsoleto; ela se ancora na dura realidade do poder, da capacidade econômica e da consistência estratégica. O que testemunhamos hoje é a emergência de um "eixo revisionista" — composto proeminentemente pela Federação Russa, pela República Popular da China, pela teocracia obscurantista do Irã e pela dinastia aberrante da Coreia do Norte —, cuja finalidade precípua não é a reforma pactuada das instituições globais, mas sim a destruição deliberada dos valores ocidentais de liberdade individual, economia de mercado e império da lei (rule of law).

A Tragédia Ucraniana e o Desafio Revisionista do Kremlin
O primeiro e mais candente vetor dessa desordem sistêmica localiza-se nas planícies da Europa Oriental. A agressão militar não provocada e plenamente ilegal da Rússia de Vladimir Putin contra a Ucrânia constitui o mais flagrante estupro do direito internacional e da Carta das Nações Unidas em solo europeu desde o fim do conflito mundial de 1939-1945. Longe de ser um mero conflito territorial localizado, a guerra de atrito que se arrasta na Ucrânia representa um desafio existencial à arquitetura de segurança euro-atlântica.
Putin, operando sob uma mística neo-czarista e ressentida, busca reverter o que ele
próprio qualificou como "a maior catástrofe geopolítica do século XX": o desmoronamento da União Soviética.
O erro crasso de certas correntes analíticas, inclusive na academia e na diplomacia
brasileira de inclinação "anticolonialista" de fancaria, reside em tentar equivaler o agressor e o agredido, recorrendo a piruetas retóricas sobre a expansão da OTAN. Ora, a expansão da Aliança Atlântica nunca foi um processo de anexação imperialista, mas sim uma busca voluntária, por parte das jovens democracias da Europa Central e Oriental, de um seguro de vida coletivo contra o tradicional expansionismo moscovita.

A resistência heroica do povo ucraniano e o revigoramento da OTAN — que acolheu tardiamente, mas de forma acertada, a Finlândia e a Suécia em suas fileiras — demonstram que o Ocidente, apesar de suas hesitações internas e crises de liderança, ainda conserva a capacidade de se mobilizar em defesa da liberdade. Contudo, a fadiga material e política que se insinua nas capitais ocidentais coloca em risco a sustentabilidade dessa barreira de contenção à tirania russa.

O Dragão Asiático e a Armadilha de Tucídides
No flanco asiático, o desafio é substancialmente mais robusto e estrutural. A China de Xi Jinping abandonou em definitivo o pragmatismo prudente de Deng Xiaoping — sintetizado na máxima de "esconder a capacidade e esperar o momento oportuno" — para adotar uma postura abertamente assertiva, quando não agressiva. A militarização do Mar do Sul da China, a asfixia definitiva das liberdades democráticas em Hong Kong e a retórica crescentemente belicosa em relação a Taiwan configuram um quadro de alta periculosidade para a estabilidade do Indo-Pacífico.
A China utiliza seu formidável poderio econômico e financeiro, magnificado por iniciativas de cunho nitidamente mercantilista e geopolítico como a Belt and Road Initiative (a Nova Rota da Seda), para criar laços de dependência assimétrica no Sul Global, transformando nações soberanas em satélites de seus interesses estratégicos. A ilusão de que a inserção da China na Organização Mundial do Comércio (OMC) em 2001 conduziria a uma liberalização política concomitante foi sepultada pelo fortalecimento de um capitalismo de Estado autoritário e tecnologicamente totalitário. O confronto multidimensional entre Washington e Pequim — que abrange desde a supremacia tecnológica em semicondutores e inteligência artificial até a dissuasão militar convencional — estabelece a polaridade dominante do nosso tempo, reeditando, sob vestes tecnológicas, a clássica Armadilha de Tucídides.

O Polvorinho do Oriente Médio e a Teocracia Persa
Ao movermos o foco para o Oriente Médio, deparamo-nos com um cenário de
fragmentação e conflito agudizado pelas ambições hegemônicas regionais do Irã. A
teocracia dos aiatolás opera como o principal fator de instabilidade na região, financiando, armando e coordenando uma rede de milícias e grupos terroristas que atuam como procuradores (proxies) de Teerã: o Hamas na Faixa de Gaza, o Hezbollah no Líbano, os Houthis no Iêmen e várias facções xiitas no Iraque e na Síria.
O trágico ataque terrorista contra o Estado de Israel desencadeou uma reação em cadeia cujos desdobramentos continuam a ameaçar a segurança global e a estabilidade dos fluxos de comércio marítimo no Mar Vermelho. A resposta militar israelense, legítima em seu princípio de autodefesa, mas politicamente complexa e militarmente desgastante, evidencia a ausência de uma arquitetura regional de segurança sustentável. Os Acordos de Abraão, que representavam uma promissora via de normalização diplomática entre Israel e as monarquias sunitas do Golfo sob o signo do pragmatismo econômico, foram temporariamente colocados em banho-maria pela estratégia iraniana de sabotagem deliberada da estabilidade regional. O espectro de uma escalada nuclear por parte de Teerã paira como uma espada de Dâmocles sobre o sistema internacional, diante da fragilidade dos mecanismos multilaterais de monitoramento.

A Crise das Democracias Ocidentais e a Ascensão do Populismo
Não seria correto, todavia, atribuir a responsabilidade pela desordem global exclusivamente aos atores autocráticos externos. A ordem liberal padece de graves enfermidades endógenas. Assistimos, nas próprias entranhas do Ocidente, a uma crise de legitimidade e de funcionamento das instituições democráticas, solapadas pelo flagelo do populismo de extração tanto esquerdista quanto direitista.
Nos Estados Unidos, a polarização política extrema e a persistência de correntes
isolacionistas e transacionais no debate eleitoral enfraquecem a credibilidade das garantias de segurança americanas junto aos seus aliados tradicionais. Na Europa, a ascensão de partidos eurocéticos e xenófobos reflete o mal-estar de sociedades confrontadas com fluxos migratórios desordenados, estagnação econômica relativa e a incapacidade dos governos social-democratas ou democratas-cristãos tradicionais de oferecer respostas eficazes aos desafios da globalização. Uma civilização que duvida de seus próprios valores fundamentais — a tolerância, o debate racional, o pluralismo político e a liberdade de expressão — encontra-se em desvantagem intrínseca diante de regimes autocráticos que operam com a brutal coerção e o planejamento de longo prazo.

O Equívoco da Diplomacia Brasileira: O "Não-Alinhamento" como Cumplicidade
É imperativo, neste ponto da nossa exposição, lançar um olhar crítico sobre a inserção
internacional do Brasil diante desse tabuleiro convulsionado. A política externa brasileira recente tem capitulado, de forma lamentável, a um viés ideológico anacrônico, disfarçado sob o manto de uma suposta "autonomia pela diversificação" ou de um "não-alinhamento pragmático". Ao buscar uma equidistância imoral entre democracias consolidadas e ditaduras sanguinárias, a diplomacia brasileira apequena-se e trai as suas melhores tradições históricas, que sempre primaram pela defesa do direito internacional, da solução pacífica das controvérsias e do respeito aos direitos humanos.
A postura ambígua de Brasília em relação à agressão russa na Ucrânia, a condescendência inaceitável com a ditadura na Venezuela de Nicolás Maduro — que
fraudou descaradamente o processo eleitoral para se perpetuar no poder —, e o
alinhamento retórico automático com as narrativas do Sul Global que diabolizam o
Ocidente revelam uma incompreensão profunda das dinâmicas reais do poder mundial. O engajamento acrítico no agrupamento BRICS, especialmente após a sua expansão para incluir países de credenciais democráticas nulas ou duvidosas, arrisca transformar o Brasil em linha de frente de um bloco antiocidental liderado por Pequim e Moscou. O verdadeiro interesse nacional de uma democracia ocidental, capitalista e pluralista como o Brasil reside na defesa e no fortalecimento das regras da ordem internacional liberal, e não na sua demolição em proveito de tiranos orientais ou caudilhos caribenhos.

Considerações Finais: A Necessidade de um Realismo Iluminista
Em suma, o cenário geopolítico contemporâneo caracteriza-se por uma perigosa transição de poder sem que haja regras claras para arbitrar os conflitos emergentes. As Nações Unidas, paralisadas pelo direito de veto no Conselho de Segurança, converteram-se em uma arena de debates estéreis e impotência institucional. A governança econômica global, representada pelo G20, fragmenta-se em meio ao avanço do protecionismo, do nacionalismo econômico e das sanções unilaterais.
Para navegar nesse oceano de incertezas, faz-se mister abandonar as quimeras utópicas e o voluntarismo ingênuo. A preservação da paz e da prosperidade internacional exige o resgate de um realismo iluminista: o reconhecimento de que o poder deve ser equilibrado pelo poder, mas sempre sob a égide de valores universais que dignifiquem a condição humana. Sem a firme determinação das democracias ocidentais em defender suas sociedades abertas e suas instituições de mercado contra os assaltos do autoritarismo e da barbárie populista, o mundo arrisca mergulhar em uma nova Idade das Trevas geopolítica, onde a força bruta ditará o direito e a razão será silenciada pelo clangor das armas.

The Next Global Economic Crisis Could Be Made in China - Michael B. G. Froman (Foreign Affairs)

 The Next Global Economic Crisis Could Be Made in China

How Overcapacity Ends

 

Michael B. G. Froman

 

Foreign Affairs, September/October 2026  

 

There has been no shortage of complaints about Chinese overcapacity in recent years. Beijing’s commitment to driving exports and widening its trade surplus, by any means necessary, has undermined the manufacturing aspirations of advanced economies such as the United States and those in Europe, as well as developing countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. There is more of a global consensus about the nature of the challenge than ever before, but it has had little effect on Chinese policy.

Now, the problem is morphing into a qualitatively new and more dangerous one: the world’s ability to absorb Chinese overcapacity is approaching a breaking point. And if that breaking point comes, the consequence could be a global economic crisis at a time when governments are particularly ill equipped to manage the fallout.

Over the past two decades, China has established the largest trade surplus in recorded history. In 2025, it reached nearly $1.2 trillion, growing at three times the rate of global goods trade. This paradigm has been strategically beneficial for China and disinflationary for the rest of the world in the short run, but it is politically and structurally unsustainable—creating an increasing and underappreciated risk to the entire global economy.

China’s remarkable path of economic development over the last several decades has been made possible by a benign international environment in which other countries were eager to accept low-cost manufactured goods in exchange for efficient supply chains and consumer welfare. But that international environment has turned toxic. The political appetite for accepting the deindustrialization and critical dependencies that come with the flood of Chinese imports is finite and shrinking. As these trends continue, protectionism is likely to rise, cutting off Chinese manufacturers’ market access and thereby short-circuiting Beijing’s strategy, introduced in 2020, of “dual circulation,” which promotes both domestic economic self-sufficiency and continued engagement in international markets.

But the problem goes well beyond political backlash. It is a problem of arithmetic. When the Chinese economy was substantially smaller, a strategy based on driving export growth at two or three times the rate of overall global economic growth was possible because there was sufficient global demand to absorb its exports. Today, however, China has a much larger economy and cannot continue on this trajectory without eventually running out of customers. Put simply, Beijing has outgrown its economic model.

When the Chinese export machine stalls, the reckoning will be most painful for China. But a material slowdown in its economy would send shock waves around the world, especially among China’s major trading partners, not only in the Asia Pacific but also in countries elsewhere whose economies have become intertwined with China’s. The United States would not be immune to the shock, but it would be the only actor with the economic and institutional capacity to stabilize the global economy.

The surest way to avoid this costly chain of events is a preemptive and gradual rebalancing of the Chinese economy. This has long been China’s best path toward more sustainable growth, and a route the United States has advocated for years. But whereas in decades past it was a smart choice, now it is a necessity.

ABSOLUTE DISADVANTAGE

China now accounts for roughly 30 percent of global industrial production, and by 2030, it is expected to reach 45 percent, according to a 2024 UN report. With the exception of the U.S. economy immediately after World War II, there is no historical precedent for such a concentration of industrial power. Measured as a share of global GDP, China’s current manufactured goods surplus is greater than the combined surpluses of Germany and Japan at any point during the 1980s.

This manufacturing surplus reflects a concerted policy choice. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has estimated that 60 percent of China’s gains in global manufacturing market share have been driven by government subsidies. Perhaps the most significant, if implicit, subsidy is Chinese manufacturing firms’ access to Beijing’s state-directed financial system, which channels vast credit to prioritized sectors, enabling Chinese firms to expand without the same concern for profit and return as their international peers. The result is a self-defeating race to the bottom, in which firms cut prices below cost, accept razor-thin or negative margins, and continue building to chase greater market share. Nearly 30 percent of Chinese industrial firms operate at a loss, up from 20 percent before the COVID-19 pandemic. In sectors with the fastest investment growth—largely those prioritized under Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s “Made in China 2025” initiative, which seeks to foster Chinese self-sufficiency in advanced industries—that number is as high as 34 percent. Rather than allowing failing firms to exit, local governments prop up unprofitable companies to preserve employment and tax revenue, and state-owned banks roll over debt for insolvent borrowers. This system, in addition to a persistently undervalued renminbi that makes exports cheap, allows Chinese firms to charge up to 30 percent less than their peers based elsewhere.

These price wars and overcapacity have negative effects not only abroad but also at home. The Chinese word for this phenomenon is neijuan, translated as “involution,” a term used to refer to excessive competition that pushes Chinese companies to the brink for ever-diminishing returns. Firms invest more to produce more to export more at lower or negative margins, subsidized by local governments whose own fiscal health depends on the factories’ staying open. The result is an industrial machine that cannot stop and cannot slow down—but that, owing to the limits of demand, cannot keep going.

China’s trade surplus could, in effect, collapse on itself.

A crisis is not inevitable. China’s economy is resilient, and at least on paper, its leadership has signaled a recognition of the problem and an interest in taking steps to address it. The Chinese Communist Party adopted an anti-involution campaign in 2025, and its 15th Five-Year Plan, for 2026 to 2030, promotes consumption, particularly in rural areas. The CCP has also taken modest steps to strengthen its social safety net, with the goal of reducing the incentive for households to save instead of spend.

But China’s leadership remains unwilling to make the most important change: fundamentally reorienting the country’s growth strategy toward a more sustainable model. Beijing has, in general, continued to suppress domestic consumption, with the goal of maximizing industrial output in strategic and low-value sectors alike. The result is what the economist Yasheng Huang calls an “absolute advantage” economy: a country that competes simultaneously with the United States when it comes to artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and electronics, and with the poorest nations in Africa when it comes to the manufacture of textiles, apparel, and household baubles. This defies any historical precedent, not to mention the basic economic logic of comparative advantage that most other countries follow. Even governments that pursued mercantilist development strategies, such as those in South Korea and Taiwan, relinquished low-value-added manufacturing as domestic wages rose.

Beijing is reluctant to change course because its export-led growth model is both an economic grand strategy and a political project. Dual circulation plays to China’s advantages in scale manufacturing, energy, infrastructure, labor, and engineering expertise. It also reflects Xi’s deeply rooted belief, as reflected in a 2020 speech, that although China must “accelerate construction of the digital economy . . . the real economy is the foundation, and the various manufacturing industries cannot be abandoned.” As the economist Zongyuan Zoe Liu has written in these pages, “As the party sees it, consumption is an individualistic distraction that threatens to divert resources away from China’s core economic strength: its industrial base.”

The political dilemma posed by restructuring goes beyond Xi’s affinity for industry. To properly rebalance, Beijing would need to reconstruct the fiscal model on which every province and municipality depends, accept the resulting collapse in local government revenues, and absorb mass layoffs. Such a change would require aligning incentives with a substantially different economic goal from the one officials and institutions at all levels have been accustomed to pursuing over the last two decades. Local officials’ promotions are tied to hitting growth targets, regardless of whether that growth is sustainable. To hit those targets and finance local spending, they sell land, plow the proceeds into subsidized factory plots and industrial parks, marshal credit from local bank branches and local government financing vehicles, and build yet more factories. Because provinces and municipalities are chronically in deficit and lack alternative means for generating revenue at scale, this production-oriented cycle continues in perpetuity. This problem and its solutions—foremost, a more consumption-oriented economic model—are well known in China. That does not mean the issue is any easier to address.

WRITING ON THE WALL

As Beijing debates whether to embrace the reforms necessary to avert disaster, other countries are likely to try to stem the flow of Chinese exports. Such moves could suddenly close off China’s access to a broad swath of foreign markets, accelerating the failure of its export-led growth model and raising the prospect of a global economic crisis. In the first decade of this century, wealthy countries accommodated losing low-margin manufacturing to Chinese firms. But Beijing’s recent push into high-value manufacturing poses a direct threat to those countries’ economic strategies, setting the stage for a wave of protectionism even in traditional havens of free trade.

Take the case of Germany, long an advocate and beneficiary of trade with China. In 2025, German goods exports to China fell to their lowest level in a decade—down 9.3 percent from 2024 and down 23 percent from their 2022 peak, according to the Rhodium Group. Traffic in the other direction increased. In the second quarter of 2025, German imports from China rose by at least ten percent year-over-year across 2,241 product categories, including chemicals and vehicle manufacturing; collectively, those categories made up over 60 percent of all German imports from China.

The displacement is most severe in autos. German firms’ share of the Chinese auto market is shrinking as China’s share of the global auto market grows. Between 2022 and 2025, German car exports to China fell 66 percent, and China’s total vehicle exports more than doubled, making China the world’s largest auto exporter. As a result, German autoworker layoffs are now higher than during the global financial crisis of 2008–9 or the COVID pandemic, forcing German and European business associations to call for unprecedentedly stringent local content requirements. The employers’ association Gesamtmetall reported in December 2025 that Germany’s metal and electrical engineering industry, the country’s largest, was shedding nearly 10,000 jobs a month. Volkswagen is now considering whether to cut as many as 100,000 jobs—nearly a sixth of its workforce—and to end production at four plants in Germany. BMW and Mercedes-Benz are pursuing sweeping restructurings, too; analysts have told the Financial Times that the German auto industry is now shrinking “in a lasting, permanent way.” This China-driven shock has forced the German Chancellery to contemplate what was once unthinkable: backing proposals for the European Union to consider a mechanism similar to the United States’ Section 301 tariff, which would allow the EU to impose tariffs to target China’s export glut and incentivize a revaluation of the Chinese renminbi. And all of this has political ramifications. As the China expert Daniel Rosen has noted, what is taking place is the equivalent of “Hillbilly Elegy with German characteristics”—the destruction of an industry that is part and parcel of German identity.

Cars at an export terminal in Shanghai, July 2026China Daily / Reuters

The EU has long been more ideologically committed than the United States to multilateralism and free trade, at least rhetorically, as a key element of its project of integration. But after years of trying to triangulate between the United States and China, it is belatedly and reluctantly following Washington’s lead in erecting trade barriers to Chinese exports. In October 2024, after an investigation into Chinese subsidies along the electric vehicle supply chain, the European Commission imposed countervailing duties of up to 35.3 percent on Chinese-made EVs. In March, the commission put forward the Industrial Accelerator Act, which would set “Made in EU” local content requirements and mandate technology transfer for deals involving key sectors. It has also been considering broader supply chain rules for the entire bloc, including legislation that would require European companies to diversify to have at least three sources for imports in critical sectors.

The challenges China faces are not limited to the United States and Europe. When, in 2025, China demonstrated its willingness to weaponize its dominance in the processing of critical minerals and the production of related goods, such as magnets, it mobilized a coordinated and global reaction. The new Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement, convened by the Trump administration, is a coalition supported by dozens of countries, aimed at rapidly scaling public and private investment in “China free” critical minerals supply chains. It could well be a harbinger of a more daunting prospect for Beijing: coalitions of the willing cooperating to close global markets to Chinese goods and to force Beijing to rebalance on someone else’s timeline. In a number of sensitive sectors, such as telecommunications, EVs, and drones, such cliques have already formed, setting bans and restrictions on the use of equipment from Chinese telecommunications companies Huawei and ZTE.

Major importing economies are already increasing their deployment of tariffs, local content requirements, and national security exclusions. If this continues, whether as a coordinated effort or a thicket of unilateral measures, the effect on China could be a sudden and sustained shortfall in external demand.

THE WORLD IS NOT ENOUGH

If the political economy of trade among China’s trading partners poses one challenge to Beijing’s economic model, the laws of arithmetic pose an equally daunting one. Over the first two months of 2026, China’s trade surplus grew by more than 20 percent year-over-year. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has projected that the global economy will grow only 3.1 percent this year. This trend is unsustainable: global demand is not rising fast enough to absorb Chinese exports at this pace, in key sectors or in aggregate. Eventually, the market for new factories in China will run dry, as did the market for property. China’s trade surplus could, in effect, collapse on itself.

Current distortions are severest in the sectors Beijing has designated as the most strategic. Chinese factories have built up the capacity to produce roughly 1,200 gigawatts of solar infrastructure annually—nearly double the amount installed worldwide last year. Chinese export volumes of solar cells, which make up solar panels, jumped 73 percent in the first half of 2025 on a year-over-year basis, while the average unit price of those cells dropped by roughly 25 percent year-over-year. Although a cheap and abundant supply of solar panels might be good for countries pursuing an energy transition, it is not good for countries seeking to play a role in the manufacture of clean energy products.

This problem is even more acute for electric vehicles. In 2025, Chinese vehicle exports rose 21 percent to $142 billion, and lithium-ion battery shipments reached $77 billion. To enable this stunning growth, China marshaled the capacity to build roughly 25 million EVs and plug-in hybrids, at a time when its own domestic demand for new energy vehicles has stalled at around 12 million per year, according to estimates by the economist Brad Setser. Global demand for EVs, meanwhile, is projected to grow to only 23 million this year. China now has the capacity to produce roughly 55 million cars, including EVs and internal combustion engine vehicles, or roughly 60 percent of the global market of around 90 million cars. It also continues to invest heavily in new auto manufacturing capacity at a pace that exceeds the growth in global demand for autos, suggesting that its market share will likely increase. At some point, there may simply be no more buyers for all of China’s cars.

In addition to the end of the capital expenditure boom that built these excess factories, the exhaustion of markets would create the conditions for a crisis. The cost would be borne not just by China but by the rest of the world, as well.

GAME OVER?

Beijing is likely to do whatever it can to keep exports growing and dual circulation flowing. It could weaken the renminbi; expand subsidies for priority sectors, which have already consumed trillions; and push harder into the next tier of industries China has yet to dominate, including commercial aircraft and AI hardware. If trading partners try to mount further obstacles to Chinese exports, Beijing could turn to tools of economic coercion, such as restricted access to refined critical minerals, to compel other countries to keep their markets open. China’s trade surplus could expand further as a share of global GDP, well beyond the roughly two percent it already represents in manufactured goods. But the world is unlikely to tolerate such a situation for long.

China has faced a collapse in external demand before. During the global financial crisis of 2008–9 and the period of recovery immediately thereafter, economists such as Michael Pettis and Nicholas Lardy urged Beijing to accelerate its long-promised efforts to increase household consumption. Instead, Beijing rolled out a roughly $586 billion stimulus—equivalent to around 12 percent of China’s GDP in 2008—funneled almost entirely into infrastructure and construction. The investment remedy worked in large part because demographic tailwinds were still at China’s back: its middle class was growing and increasingly urban, and the working-age population was expanding, too. But those tailwinds have since reversed. Mass internal migration to China’s cities has slowed, the country’s working-age population peaked in 2015, and its total population began shrinking in 2022.

When China’s bloated property sector began to crater in 2021, Beijing punted again, rebalancing by applying its industrial policy to high-value manufacturing—EVs, batteries, solar modules, and semiconductors. By 2024, as Setser has tracked, Chinese export volumes were growing more than ten percentage points faster than global trade, and in 2025, net exports accounted for roughly 30 percent of GDP growth.

But when this latest surge plateaus or recedes, the game could well be up. It is difficult to identify a sector capable of generating another 30 percent of GDP growth for the Chinese economy. The property sector is in a prolonged downturn that could last for the better part of a generation. The infrastructure sector can no longer support new, unnecessary high-speed rail lines in third-tier cities. Manufacturing easily meets domestic demand. Services, which in most economies absorb displaced industrial labor, remain thin because the household share of consumption is too depressed to sustain them. The industries China could still develop—commercial aircraft, AI hardware—are too small to make up the difference.

THE NEXT CHINA SHOCK

A shock to China’s system could ripple through its lopsided economy with severe consequences. Firms already operating at narrow margins could fail in large numbers, and state-owned banks could be forced to recognize losses on the zombie firms they have spent years carrying. Local government financing vehicles could face cascading defaults. Provincial revenues could collapse with the tumble in land sales and industrial activity. And unemployment in coastal manufacturing provinces could turn them against Beijing in a way it has not had to deal with in decades.

Beijing might see stimulus as part of a solution. But unlike in 2008, a stimulus in 2026 would feed into a constrained Chinese economy, not a growing one. The CCP would be forced to rebalance on the worst possible terms, with output collapsing, debt burdens rising, and its legitimacy strained. China could well face a version of Japan’s lost decade—but worse. In 1991, Japan began its lost decade as one of the richest countries in the world, with a per capita income comparable, when adjusted for purchasing power, to that of the United States. Today, China is much poorer on a relative basis than Japan was. Its per capita income, when adjusted for purchasing power, is about half of Japan’s and one third of the United States’. China also faces a worse demographic outlook than Japan did and lacks the institutional infrastructure that enabled Tokyo to gradually recover.

China will be unlikely to lead the response to a crisis of its own making.

The economic ramifications of such a shock would be global. A sharp decrease in Chinese demand for global exports, particularly for raw materials and intermediate goods, would ripple through large commodity-exporting economies. The many emerging and developing countries that have China as their largest trading partner would be particularly vulnerable. When Chinese fixed-asset investment decelerated between 2012 and 2015, copper prices fell by over 40 percent, oil by over 60 percent, and iron ore by over 70 percent. This sharp drop in commodity prices caused GDP growth in resource-intensive sub-Saharan African countries to fall sharply, reducing growth for the region from 5.3 percent in 2013 to 1.3 percent in 2016, its lowest level in more than two decades. A full-blown export shock would be considerably worse. Australia, Brazil, and Chile each send 25 to 40 percent of their total exports to China; Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mongolia, and the Republic of the Congo send 45 to 90 percent of theirs to China. These countries’ economic viability rests on the assumption of a standing Chinese bid. Many more countries are dependent on Chinese demand to one degree or another.

Adding fuel to the fire, Chinese capital could retrench. Although Beijing’s global lending, through the Belt and Road Initiative, has come off its 2016 peak, China remains by far the largest bilateral creditor to the developing world. If Beijing were forced to address a domestic crisis, a fresh wave of sovereign restructurings and defaults could cascade in Pakistan, Ecuador, Zambia, and beyond.

By some measures, the global economy is in much better shape than it was in 2009. Bank balance sheets are stronger, and the financial system is better positioned to detect signs of stress. But in other respects, the situation is worse. Advanced economies entered 2008 with an average public debt of roughly 70 percent of GDP. Today, that debt stands near 110 percent. The era of ultracheap government borrowing is over, and as servicing public-sector debt becomes ever more expensive, governments will have fewer and fewer resources to respond to macroeconomic shocks.

Should the worst-case scenario play out, the U.S. Federal Reserve swap lines on the scale of 2008 or 2020 could be needed once again, alongside additional International Monetary Fund resources. Even those measures might fall short of preventing a wave of sovereign defaults—and they might be less effective than they were in 2008 and 2020.

THE WAY OUT

If the world faces a China crisis, Beijing will be unlikely to lead the response. China has yet to demonstrate any capacity for or interest in assuming the position that Washington has held since World War II, which includes steering the global economy through crises such as the Asian financial crisis in 1997, which spread to Russia and Brazil, and the global financial and subsequent eurozone crisis of 2008–12. Even if the next crisis is made in China, the cleanup is likely to fall, as it often does, on the United States and the institutions it anchors.

During much of the global financial crisis of 2008–9 and its aftermath, I served as the deputy national security adviser for international economic affairs and U.S. sherpa for the G-8 and G-20 meetings. There, I saw the coordination among political leaders, finance ministries, and central banks that brought the world’s financial systems back from the brink of a potential depression. At the London G-20 summit, in 2009, China agreed not to further devalue its currency—which it had held artificially low for nearly a year to protect its exporters—but it took the collective pressure of U.S. and other leaders to get it done.

At that summit, I watched U.S. President Barack Obama, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Chinese President Hu Jintao, and French President Nicolas Sarkozy gather in the corner of the room to hammer out the last remaining details of the response to the global financial crisis. It is hard to imagine that type of cooperation today. The institutions, tools, and habits of collaboration have deteriorated significantly since 2008, as has trust in U.S. leadership. In a February Politico poll, between 42 and 57 percent of respondents in Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom agreed that the United States “cannot be depended upon in a crisis.” This is not an ideal time for one to occur.

To avoid the most catastrophic outcome, China must orchestrate, with the United States and other major economies, a preemptive and gradual rebalancing of its economy. Such a coordinated approach might replicate the spirit of the 1985 Plaza Accord, an agreement between France, Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and West Germany to intervene in foreign exchange markets to bring down the highly overvalued U.S. dollar and reduce the large U.S. trade deficit. Today, the United States could build on the emerging consensus about the nature of the China challenge to forge a concerted effort to secure verifiable commitments from China to revalue the renminbi and rebalance the Chinese economy, including by constraining exports. The renminbi would appreciate in stages. Subsidies to priority sectors would ratchet down. Beijing would implement more vigorous reform of the country’s household registration system, to allow greater social and economic mobility and establish a stronger social safety net. China’s trading partners could titrate their protectionism to reflect the scope of the transition and coordinate their adjustments so the burden does not fall on any one economy or sector alone. These are steps that China has long known will be necessary for more balanced and sustainable growth—steps it has largely chosen to ignore. But if Beijing continues kicking the can, it will soon run out of road.

At the Yantian port in Shenzhen, China, October 2025Tingshu Wang / Reuters

There is deep and understandable frustration in the United States about China’s stonewalling on these issues over the last two decades. When asked, earlier this year, whether Washington would continue advocating for rebalancing as a central part of the U.S.-Chinese trade agenda, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer noted, “Well, how effective was that? . . . We’ve just come to terms with the fact that there’s not going to be some giant comprehensive reform of the way the Chinese political system works, including all these economic elements of it.” Instead, the administration is focusing on establishing a “Board of Trade” to manage bilateral trade across “nonsensitive goods,” in the White House’s words, and on the negotiation of purchase and sales agreements for goods including soybeans, other agricultural and energy products, and airplanes.

Such limited transactions may be beneficial in and of themselves, but they will do little to reduce the broader economic risks that Chinese mercantilism poses to the United States and the global economy, or to mitigate the underlying economic causes of tension in the relationship. Washington can shape Beijing’s future economic policy, but to do so, it must assemble a coalition of the willing to pressure and enable China to rebalance. Achieving such an outcome might allow the formation of a new global economic equilibrium—and more important, might prevent the next major global economic crisis.

The most obvious opportunity is the G-20 summit in Miami this December, a gathering the United States will host for the first time since 2009. The Trump administration has already made clear that it wants to take the G-20 “back to basics,” and historically, the group has worked best when it has focused on the management of global economic risks. The task at hand requires that focus. As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in April, “The slow-motion buildup of global imbalances after a lack of sustainable growth is the biggest risk. The world cannot take a China with a trillion-dollar trade surplus.” Bessent’s worries are well founded, and the United States should place China’s imbalances at the core of the summit.

None of this work will be easy. But the alternatives are far worse. In this potential crisis, China would suffer more than the United States, irrevocably undermining its bid to stand alongside Washington—let alone replace it—as a responsible steward of the global economy, and damaging the relationships with middle- and low-income countries that Beijing has spent decades cultivating. But the fallout will not hurt China alone. It could cascade across the global economy in a way not seen since 2008–9. That is the real next China shock, and it should be at the center of U.S.-Chinese relations. The United States has an opportunity to put it there—and a clear interest in doing so.

O sucesso chinês: educação, tecnologia e abertura - Pedro S. Malan (Estadão)

 Pensadores, atores, estadistas de que o Brasil precisa:

O sucesso chinês: educação, tecnologia e abertura

Pena que educação e saúde não pareçam constituir, como deveriam, áreas de obsessivo e construtivo interesse por parte das lideranças políticas do Brasil

Por Pedro S. Malan

Estadão, 09/08/2026 

Na raiz de nossos problemas de pobreza e de desigualdade de renda e riqueza está a questão fundamental a ser atacada: a desigualdade de oportunidades, que surge já no nascimento. É função de políticas públicas nas áreas de educação (e de saúde) procurar reduzir estes diferenciais nos anos iniciais de vida das crianças, como é hoje amplamente reconhecido por especialistas em educação no Brasil e no mundo.

Em 1981, por iniciativa de Deng Xiaoping, o Banco Mundial aprovou um empréstimo para a China no montante de US$ 200 milhões, equivalentes a cerca de US$ 750 milhões de hoje. Era inteiramente destinado à ciência e educação, e seus objetivos eram claros: formar gente qualificada em ciência, tecnologia, engenharia, matemática, computação; enviar estudantes chineses às melhores universidades dos EUA e da Europa; promover interação entre universidades chinesas e estrangeiras na área científica. Metade dos recursos vinha da International Development Association, braço concessional do grupo do Banco Mundial para países mais pobres, o que era a China à época. A operação contou com a aprovação dos EUA, que tinham (e ainda têm) poder de veto na instituição.

Entre 1981 e 2020, cerca de 6 milhões de chineses estudaram no exterior, dos quais 20 a 30% cursaram pós-graduação. Estima-se que entre 300 mil e 500 mil tenham obtido o título de doutor em universidades dos EUA, Inglaterra, Canadá, Austrália, Alemanha, Japão e Singapura, nas áreas de engenharia, matemática, ciência da computação, física, química e ciências biomédicas. Antes de 2000, menos da metade retornava à China; naquele ano foram criados programas de incentivo ao retorno, e após 2010, mais de 80% passavam a retornar ao país em algum momento da carreira.

A política foi um extraordinário sucesso. Em 2025, segundo o índice global de inovação da World Intellectual Property Organization (Wipo), das 100 principais clusters de inovação no mundo, a China tinha 24 e os EUA 22. O Brasil, 1. O ex-presidente Barack Obama, que tinha profundo interesse nesse processo, afirmou repetidas vezes ao longo dos anos que educação de qualidade mundial era pré-requisito para o sucesso de qualquer país. “Countries that out-educate us today will out-compete us tomorrow” (“os países que hoje investem mais e melhor em educação amanhã serão mais competitivos do que nós”, em tradução livre), explicava.

A rivalidade EUA/China continuará impulsionando a competição geopolítica global. Os EUA lideram na inovação de ponta, especialmente em semicondutores e (ainda) na fronteira de inteligência artificial (IA), enquanto a China se destaca na implementação de IA em larga escala, na manufatura e no controle de cadeias de suprimentos, de minerais críticos e de outros insumos industriais. Mas não é menos certo que aos dois rivais interessa aquilo que os chineses chamam de “estabilidade estratégica construtiva”, expressão que é manifestação de ambiguidade construtiva da China enquanto segue na disputa por esferas de influência no mundo. Em entrevista recente, Xi Jinping ofereceu sua própria definição da armadilha de Tucídides: “We all need to work together to avoid the Thucydides Trap – destructive tensions between an emerging power and established powers” (“Todos precisamos trabalhar juntos para evitar a Armadilha de Tucídides – tensões destrutivas entre uma potência emergente e as potências estabelecidas”, em tradução livre).

É possível fazer um paralelo entre aquele amplo programa de financiamento à ciência e educação, do qual a China foi beneficiária, com a ambiciosa iniciativa que agora põem em marcha os chineses. Em meados de julho, realizou-se em Xangai uma conferência que reuniu outros 29 países, ao cabo da qual foi criada a World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (Waico), descrita por Xi Jinping na abertura oficial do encontro como um importante marco na história do desenvolvimento da inteligência artificial no mundo. Companhias chinesas deverão tornar a IA amplamente disponível por meio de open source models, e o governo chinês propõe-se a treinar países a capacitar milhares de pessoas na aplicação de IA. Foram anunciados a oferta de “5 mil oportunidades” de treinamento, programas e seminários nos próximos cinco anos, e o desenvolvimento de International AI Applications Centres (IAICC). Xi apresentou a organização como instrumento para ampliar a participação dos países do Sul Global na definição das normas internacionais de IA – por meio da adoção de código aberto, cooperação tecnológica e acesso amplo às capacidades de IA.

Respondendo em 1995 a uma pergunta sobre desenvolvimento tecnológico, Celso Furtado afirmou: “O que interessa no progresso tecnológico é a qualidade do fator humano, o que não se improvisa. Não basta investir, botar mais dinheiro. Toma tempo formar de verdade gente qualificada. (...) O progresso tecnológico depende da qualidade de material humano”.

Pena que educação e saúde não pareçam constituir, como deveriam, áreas de obsessivo e construtivo interesse por parte das lideranças políticas do País. Talvez o debate público em 2026 ainda possa levar candidatos a procurar, em prazo hábil, agregar equipes competentes nessas áreas. E a promover discussão apta a permitir diagnóstico claro para a sociedade sobre a situação atual, como a ela chegamos e, principalmente, a descortinar como avançar com a necessária visão de longo prazo sobre nosso futuro nesta área.

A eleição presidencial e o comércio exterior - José Eduardo Faria (Jota Eleições)

 RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS

A eleição presidencial e o comércio exterior

Pleito deve definir como Brasil equilibrará relações com EUA e China

José Eduardo Faria

08/08/2026|05:30

Palácio do Itamaraty. Crédito: Fabio Rodrigues Pozzebom/Agência Brasil

Os jornais têm noticiado que mais de 200 milhões de chineses deixaram o campo e foram para os centros urbanos, nos últimos anos, atraídos pelo crescimento industrial de seu país. A expansão econômica da China foi tão expressiva que levou ao surgimento de uma classe média emergente, com alto consumo de laticínios, carne e alimentos processados.

Sem alta disponibilidade de terras aráveis, a China optou pelo Brasil como seu principal exportador em matéria da proteína animal. Entre 2000 e 2024, as exportações agrícolas para esse país cresceram 20%. Em 2025, as exportações do agro brasileiro totalizaram US$ 55,3 bilhões. O principal produto exportado – soja e seus derivados – propiciou uma receita de US$ 34,6 bilhões.

O que diriam os dois principais candidatos à Presidência se, num debate frente a frente entre eles, fossem indagados sobre o que pretendem fazer nesse setor, se vierem a ser eleitos?

Comecemos com Flávio Bolsonaro. Conhecido por sua submissão à política americana unipolar proposta pela Casa Branca, em junho ele enviou carta ao secretário de Estado, Marco Rubio, dizendo que está confiante de que será o vencedor e prometendo colocar uma equipe de transição à disposição do governo Trump.

“Nossas nações foram construídas sobre os princípios dos mercados livres, do respeito mútuo e da aliança estratégica a que nossos povos merecem”, escreveu. Com essa afirmação, o candidato revelou seu despreparo em matéria de relações internacionais. Mostrou não ter ideia da trajetória da política externa brasileira entre a segunda metade do século 20 e a década de 2010. E sequer sabe que, nesse período, o Brasil adotou uma exitosa política externa com o objetivo de diversificar o leque de compradores de produtos brasileiros e de reduzir sua dependência dos Estados Unidos na área comercial.

O acerto da chamada “Política Externa Independente”, que almejava equilibrar nossas relações internacionais mantendo portas abertas com diferentes polos de poder político e econômico por meio de alianças pragmáticas, levou o Brasil a ser visto como parceiro confiável. O desconhecimento desse fato por Flávio foi explicitado ainda mais pelo tarifaço imposto pela Casa Branca, justificada por Trump como resposta a “práticas comerciais negativas contra os interesses americanos”.

Em 2 de abril de 2025, que chamou de “dia da libertação”, Trump desorganizou a ordem comercial internacional ao impor altas tarifas de importação a dezenas de países. No caso do Brasil, os analistas apontam que, atualmente, só 12% de nossas exportações vão para os Estados Unidos. Por isso, o impacto do tarifaço sobre os produtos brasileiros exportados para os Estados Unidos teria sido menos desastroso quando comparado com o impacto causado em outros países.

Não passou pela cabeça de Flávio que, ao converter o comércio exterior em instrumento de pressão geopolítica, Trump enfraqueceu uma ordem internacional cooperativa forjada há décadas. Flávio também não entendeu que os tarifaços trumpistas só estimularão o Brasil a diversificar ainda mais a rede de mundial de importadores de produtos brasileiros. Ao enfatizar o que chamou de “princípios de mercados livres” e revelar a disposição de fazer do Brasil um “fiel aliado americano”, Flávio foi além do aulicismo.

Ele evidenciou não ter ideia de que o objetivo de uma política externa responsável é equilibrar relações diplomáticas, ampliar mercados e manter portas abertas com diferentes polos de poder no cenário mundial. Subserviente, a ponto de abrir caminho para que Trump interfira na eleição brasileira, Flávio chegou a pedir à Casa Branca que esperasse passar a eleição para impor mais tarifas a produtos brasileiros. Ao desprezar a China por motivo ideológico, Flávio também relegou o fato de que o Brasil mantém uma importante relação comercial com esse país, independentemente de seu regime político.

Em 2024, a China foi responsável por 28% das exportações brasileiras. No primeiro semestre de 2026, as exportações brasileiras para esse país cresceram 22%, enquanto para o Estados Unidos recuaram 13%. Ainda que a pauta de exportações para os Estados Unidos envolva produtos de alta tecnologia e valor agregado, esses números revelam que o futuro do Brasil no comércio exterior dependerá de como o país vier a agir, tendo de lidar simultaneamente com Estados Unidos e China, dois países hostis um ao outro.

Neste ponto, Lula destacou-se por olhar para outros lugares do mundo e demonstrou bom senso ao não se deixar levar pelo alinhamento automático com os Estados Unidos. Sem colidir frontalmente com este país, como evidenciou em sua visita a Trump em maio, o presidente optou por buscar alianças estratégicas, aprofundando o relacionamento do Brasil com a China.

Se por um lado Lula carece de uma visão de mundo refinada, deixando-se levar por declarações de inspiração nacionalista e soberanista, por outro teve o bom senso de, em seu terceiro, de deixar o Itamaraty sob controle de diplomatas respeitados. E estes o persuadiram a rejeitar retaliações aos Estados Unidos, ao menos num primeiro momento.

Também o advertiram para as armadilhas da polarização. E ainda o lembraram dos riscos de um eventual acionamento da Lei de Reciprocidade, o que, longe de quebrar as patentes de empresas americanas no país, poderia agravar muito mais a situação. Ao mesmo tempo, estimularam Lula a valorizar negociações, priorizando interesses econômicos de médio prazo, sem dar maior ênfase aos interesses políticos de curto prazo.

Contudo, após ter seguido esses conselhos num primeiro momento, com o tempo o presidente retomou suas falas recorrentes. Falou em defesa da Nação. Criticou os traidores da pátria. Disse que “ninguém nos vencerá com mentiras”. Voltou a ressaltar a importância da aproximação com a Ásia. E, em ligação telefônica com o presidente chinês Xi Jinping, voltou a falar no fortalecimento dos Brics sem, contudo, ter ideia de que alguns países que compõem esse bloco nem sempre falam a mesma linguagem nem as mesmas ambições – pelo contrário, têm interesses próprios que, muitas vezes, são divergentes. Além disso, muitos desses países não constituem fontes de capital significativas nem mesmo para si próprios.

No caso específico de Flávio Bolsonaro, se ele for eleito o Brasil terá um presidente incapaz de avaliar o custo que o país terá de arcar em decorrência do alinhamento automático com os Estados Unidos. Recorrendo a mentiras como palavras de ordem, Flávio é incapaz de compreender o quanto o país precisa agir de modo responsável no cenário internacional, abrindo caminhos, ampliando espaços, multiplicando fontes de capital e diversificando fluxos de comércio.

Já no caso da reeleição de Lula, o problema será outro. Como sua visão da economia mundial é mais ideologizada do que analítica, muitas vezes ele tende a ser raso e dúbio. Após o novo tarifaço, a chancelaria preparou para Lula minutas de artigos moderados mas oportunos que foram publicados pela imprensa americana. Ao mesmo tempo, o Itamaraty e o Ministério da Fazenda e o Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria, Comércio e Serviços agiram com sensatez ao enfatizar a importância de se identificar interesses comuns no cenário mundial.

Em termos concretos, porém, o presidente cogitou em tomar iniciativas perigosas, como a impetração de um recurso na OMC com base na Lei de Reciprocidade para “marcar posição”, esquecendo-se de que retaliações americana podem ter alto custos. De concreto, seu governo limitou-se até agora a lançar uma nova fase do controvertido Brasil Soberano, um programa concebido há um ano com para atender empresas brasileiras atingidas pelo tarifaço de 2025.

A verdade é que, além da falta de prudência e pragmatismo, o candidato incumbente carece de uma visão estratégica de médio e longo prazo para o país. Como advertiu o diplomata Rubens Barbosa, que foi embaixador em Washington entre 1999 e 2004, se nada for feito nesse sentido “o Brasil continuará administrando as influências externas sem capacidade de se beneficiar das transformações políticas, econômicas e tecnológicas em curso no cenário global”.

Barbosa está certo. É por isso que só um debate entre estes dois presidenciáveis pode abrir caminho para que a retórica seja substituída por uma discussão responsável e substantiva sobre um tema vital para o futuro do país.

Os artigos publicados pelo JOTA não refletem necessariamente a opinião do site. Os textos buscam estimular o debate sobre temas importantes para o país, sempre prestigiando a pluralidade de ideias.