2017, cem anos da revolucao bolchevique: seria uma volta da gloriosa URSS putinesca? - Oleg Chuvakin

Não acredito nisso, dadas as fragilidades econômicas e a instabilidade política da Rússia atual, que voltou aos tempos do czarismo, agora sob a liderança de um ex-KGB, que sempre achou que a derrocada do império soviético foi a maior tragédia geopolítica do século 20.
Também acho, mas creio que foi a MELHOR tragédia geopolítica que poderíamos ter ao final de um século extremamente destruidor por causa das ideologias totalitárias que o perpassaram, primeiro o bolchevismo, logo seguido pelo fascismo italiano, pelo stalinismo soviético, pelo nazismo hitlerista, pelo maoismo delirante e outros experimentos tirânicos de par le monde, todos eles responsáveis diretos e indiretos pela morte de dezenas de MILHÕES, talvez mais de uma centena, de pessoas, muitos militares, mas muito mais civis inocentes, gente que pereceu das mais diversas formas sob o tacão de tiranos dementes, psicopatas, megalomaníacos, simplesmente totalitários.
Para mim, os atuais dirigentes russos continuam sua política agressiva em relação ao Ocidente, que sempre lhes aportou coisas boas, ao longo da história, em termos de modernização cultural e material da velha Rússia semi-asiática (por opção imperial, não por necessidade, pois a Rússia poderia ser uma potência perfeitamente ocidental, enquadrada no mainstream da globalização). Infelizmente, os instintos autocráticos dos dirigentes russos, desde sempre (czarismo tradicional, bolchevismo soviético imperial, "renascimento" putinesco atual), os levam a continuar com essa política agressiva e prejudicial ao próprio povo russo.
Reproduzo aqui o que comentei em resposta ao envio deste artigo, em russo, ao colega que gentilmente me repassou a matéria:
"Cem anos depois da revolução bolchevique, Putin gostaria de ter um ano glorioso para o finado império soviético, reconstruído com quase todas as suas satrapias da Ásia central. Creio, porém, que ele vai perder espaço para a China nestas últimas, e ainda tem muitos problemas a resolver com os ocidentais na questão da Criméia e da Ucrânia em geral. Sinceramente, espero que, para melhorias democráticas no mundo, Putin e seus aliados involuntários no Ocidente (entre os quais Mister Trump e a "assistida" Marine Le Pen) sejam fragorosamente derrotados ou pelo menos frustrados em suas pretensões absurdas e semi-autocráticas. Não sou a favor da "decadência do Ocidente", para usar um conceito que estava em voga cem anos atrás, materializado no livro idiota do Oswald Spengler."
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

2017 will be a year of strengthening Russia 

Stratfor

06/12/2016 - 8:29

Company «Stratfor», «shadow CIA", predict the future strengthening of Russia. Russian will be strengthened in the coming year. The situation in Europe, the change in the US policy establishment will play into the hands of Russia in 2017. year. In addition, Moscow will regain position in the post-Soviet countries. And then the Kremlin will receive a hypersonic weapon.

In the latest report think tank «Stratfor» reported projections for the Russian. It turns out that three years later, "confrontation" with the West, not only Russian drowned in the depths of the crisis, but even began to hope for a strengthening of the world's influence.

"Disputes between Russia and the West", the report says, going for three years now. Why then came Russia at the turn of 2016 and 2017.? "Stratfor" writes that Brexit and discord in the European Union "Moscow gave a glimmer of hope."

EU Member States disagree with Brussels, at the next voting may violate Union consensus on sanctions against Russia, which touches the question of the extension of the restrictive measures.

In the United States, recently won the election, Donald Trump. His victory opened the way possible "to warmer relations between the United States and Russia", the analysts believe. It is possible that sanctions against Moscow would even stopped by Washington.

In short, "the political tides in Brussels and Washington," the Kremlin can give "freedom of action". If the Kremlin would use it, it can enhance its influence in the former Soviet Union.

Next, the experts "think tank" to pass some of the details.

Many of the failures of the past Russia date back to 2014, since February of that year "euromaidan" in Ukraine ended the uprising and overthrow of Viktor Yanukovych, analysts remind.

Next month Crimea declared independence from Ukraine and Moscow "annexed area and expanded support for a separatist rebellion in the eastern part of Ukraine."

In response, the European Union and the US imposed sanctions against Russia. Then, after a few months, international oil prices began to decline sharply and fell almost in half by the end of the year.

The result: a combination of low oil prices and sanctions has led Russia to the recession and the exchange rate has given rise to the confrontation with the West.

Simultaneously, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia to strengthen ties with the European Union and NATO.

Now, however, the fate of Russia can change. Of the entire territory of the former Soviet Union know what policy changes are taking place in Europe and the United States. These countries are likely to reconsider its position in relation to the West.

In Moldova, the presidential elections of November 13 victories leader of the pro-Russian party.However, the Parliament of Moldova and its prime minister still prefer integration with the West, so the elected President, Igor Dodon, will hardly be able to build a course in Moscow.

And yet he will try to develop a deeper economic and political ties with Russia.

Georgia is also beginning to soften "some aspects" position in relation to the breakaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the report said. In addition, as a result of the October parliamentary elections, it became clear that Georgia can expand economic ties with Moscow as early as next year.

As for Ukraine, it is now based on economic and political support from the West and is counting on a constant pressure through sanctions against Moscow. However, the government in Kiev can not be sure that Western support - something permanent.

It is unlikely that the people of Ukraine will elect a presidential "pro-Russian leader," given the ongoing conflict in the east. Nevertheless, the change in political circumstances in Europe and the United States can force the Ukrainian government to reduce the temperature at the meetings on the Minsk agreements and to take a more moderate stance in the negotiations with Russia on the eastern territories of Ukraine.

On the other hand, Kiev may try to bolster its defense integration with Poland and the Baltic countries.

Further, experts are moving to Belarus.

In other countries of the former Soviet Union, which previously had strong ties with Russia, too, understand the importance of the current changes in the West. Despite its longtime military alliance with Russia, Belarus last year drifted slowly westward. But now this process will go either to a standstill, or even "turn back the clock."

And even in those countries that have remained more or less neutral in the current confrontation between Russia and the West, politicians can "correct position".

"Brain Trust" refers to the recent negotiations, which held Russia and aimed at strengthening military cooperation with Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan - the former Soviet republics willing to expand cooperation with Russia in the areas of arms and training.

Finally, Moscow would "revive" integration initiatives of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Organization of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Against this background, the growing political divide in Europe will look particularly clearly.

As early as next year in Washington new power chair will sit, and a split in the European Union will only intensify. And Russia can seize the opportunity to return to the influence of the post-Soviet "outskirts".

The political transformations taking place in Europe and the United States, the authors conclude, may play into the hands of Moscow: give her the opportunity to restore the former reputation throughout Eurasia.

Meanwhile in the US have discovered a new vulnerability to the formidable Russian. It turns out that States allegedly behind Russia in the development of hypersonic missiles. And this creates for America "danger".

This writes the online edition «Washington Free Beacon», referring to the report of the US Air Force.

The article states that both Russia and China are experiencing high-speed maneuvering weapons is a "threat to US forward-deployed forces." And these things are too dangerous for the United States 'mainland'.

Speakers noted that the latest Russian and Chinese weapons can change the views of the US military on a "global vigilance." "The threat of a symmetric shock" Experts are considering the need of opposition to plans of the enemy.

As explained, "Reedus" expert "Independent Military Review" Oleg Vladykin that once hypersonic vehicles reach speeds of up to 4 M, they acquire the plasma membrane.

"The plasma cocoon - said the expert - is impervious to the radio, which means that the hypersonic missile, first, loses control, and secondly," going blind "itself. She does not see the operator, she did not see the goal.

The technological breakthrough of Russian engineers is precisely in the fact that they are smart enough, you can use this very plasma membrane to the radar. "

However, we add yet speak of a hypersonic weapons from Moscow early.

In 2015-2016 gg. Experts called the date: 2020, not earlier. They also note that in this particular secret is not, and the same weapon is being developed and the Americans.

PH "Kommersant" correspondent Ivan Safronov Special in July last year said that such weapons "developed in America and in Russia." In 2013, the general director of the corporation "Tactical Missiles" B. Obnosov openly declared that the relevant work is being done.

"We know that at the landfill near Astrakhan being tested, at least, our products hypersonic. It is impossible, of course, say that they are successful when compared with the Soviet Union - that this was a test launch? Nothing.

Now, of course, each test - this is another reason to think about. It took a number, here are trying to still take the quality and anticipate their failures.

Some snags that will arise in the process. I think that's up to the end of the decade, in 2020, Russia has quite a hypersonic missile will most likely air-to-air. "

But the words of the Director General of the corporation "Tactical Missiles" (Tactical Missiles Corporation) Boris Obnosova. At the end of September 2016, he told the same journalist Safronov of the "Kommersant" newspaper, "Now this area is given due consideration, that can not but rejoice.

Is underway a number of projects and the Foundation for Advanced Studies at the Military-Industrial Commission. Believe me, we already have interesting results in this direction. "

When asked about the timing of the appearance of a hypersonic weapons Obnosov said cautiously: "I think that at the beginning of the next decade."

As for the US, adding, they will forever haunt fear of the "Russian threat" and the Kremlin's desire to hit the US "mainland."

It seems that two of the state again deadlocked arms race and think a military scenario. Sure, if in 2017 Russia will even weak economic growth, the American "defense" experts yelled about the impending attack Russian America already in 2018.

Oleg Chuvakin

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