Atualização sobre a guerra de agressão da Rússia contra a Ucrânia; algumas seleções do relatório diário de CDS em 5/06/2023

Atualização sobre a guerra de agressão da Rússia contra a Ucrânia; algumas seleções do relatório diário de CDS em 5/06/2023: 

In May, Kyiv's air defense forces destroyed 7 hypersonic missiles "Kinjal," 13 ballistic missiles "Iskander," 65 cruise missiles (X-101, X-555, "Kalibr"), and 169 UAVs, the Kyiv City Military Administration reported. The statement acknowledged that these numbers are approximate. "Never before has any city in any country experienced such powerful air attacks with numerous hypersonic aeroballistic, ballistic, cruise missiles, and modern military UAVs as much as Kyiv did in May. Kyiv endured. We endured."

During the past day, the Russian army attacked nine Ukrainian Oblasts, injuring civilians and damaging civilian infrastructure.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has approved the composition of a delegation to participate in the hearings of the International Court of Justice (ICJ). On January 16, 2017, Ukraine filed a lawsuit against Russia at the ICJ for violating the Convention on the Financing of Terrorism and the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination. On November 8, 2019, the court recognized its jurisdiction in the case concerning Russia's violations of the two conventions. The court also emphasized that Ukraine had complied with all pre-trial procedural requirements. This decision means that the ICJ can proceed to consider the merits of the case. As reported by Ukrinform, the ICJ will hold public hearings on Russia's violations of the two conventions from June 6 to June 14, 2023.

The Russian military command is strengthening its troop grouping in the Kharkiv Oblast by deploying "Storm Z" assault units; reportedly employing a group of up to 500 former convicts in the region.

Ukraine is preparing for a "Plan B" for exporting agricultural products through the Black Sea, in which Russia will not be a participant in the so-called "grain initiative."

The Kharkiv Regional Military Administration is discussing the possibility of forced evacuation from border towns and villages in Kharkiv Oblast. The head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration stated that this decision comes in response to the increased number of shelling attacks in the area.

According to the press service of the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy, more than 1,520 cultural infrastructure objects in Ukraine have been destroyed or damaged as a result of Russia's armed aggression. The report reveals that [culture] club establishments, libraries, museums, theaters, philharmonics, and art education institutions such as art schools and colleges in 216 territorial communities have experienced damage and destruction. The statistics indicate that the Russians have damaged 571 libraries, 82 museums and galleries, 25 theaters and philharmonics, and 115 art education institutions in Ukraine. Club establishments have suffered the most damage among the cultural infrastructure, with 727 structures being affected.

Ukraine is preparing for a "Plan B" for exporting agricultural products through the Black Sea, in which Russia will not be a participant in the so-called "grain initiative." The Minister of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, Mykola Solskyi, noted that recently the grain corridor has practically not been functioning. The aggressor country has blocked grain exports from the "Pivdenny" port, and Russian inspectors only allow one vessel to be loaded per day. "We will be prepared for the 'Plan B,' which depends on us, depends on the UN. I don't think we will stand aside if this continues in the near future... 'Plan B' excludes the fourth party (Russia) in these relations," said the minister. He added that the Ukrainian government has already established a special fund of $547 million to insure dry cargo heading to the ports of Odesa for a possible new agreement. He also mentioned that shipowners could rely on the "sufficient strength" of the Ukrainian Naval Forces and air defense in the Black Sea region. Solskyi added that Ukraine, as before, hopes that the current Black Sea Grain Initiative will work despite the existing difficulties. The new working format will require time to conclude a new agreement and discuss new rules for exporting agricultural products.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 05.06.23 
Personnel - almost 210,350 people (+410);
Tanks - 3,848 (+11);
Armored combat vehicles – 7,523 (+11);
Artillery systems – 3,567 (+12);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) - 584 (+1);
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 349 (+5);
Vehicles and fuel tanks – 6,312 (+7);
Aircraft - 313 (0);
Helicopters – 298 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 3,189 (+14);
Intercepted cruise missiles - 1,136 (+4);
Boats/ships – 18 (0).

"An Unwinnable War: Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine," an article by Samuel Charap in Foreign Affairs, aligns with the messaging that the Kremlin would welcome. It is worth noting that Samuel Charap had limited regard for the Ukrainian Armed Forces prior to the invasion, and he was not supportive, publicly at least, of arming Ukraine in the lead-up to the full-scale invasion. 

While acknowledging the potential for significant gains in the counter-offensive, Mr. Charap pushes the idea that the "fighting has made clear that neither side has the capacity—even with external help—to achieve a decisive military victory over the other." In a vision for how the war ends, he believes in solving a dilemma of "steering the war toward a negotiated end in the coming months" or "doing so years from now," dealing with a "devastating, years-long conflict that does not produce a definitive outcome." 

According to him, the “magic bullet” is in starting a diplomatic track that may leave Russia in control of some territories but Ukraine able to "recover economically, and the death and destruction would end." Samuel Charap brings the example of "the successful reunification of Germany in 1990," which "demonstrated that focusing on nonmilitary elements of the contestation can produce results." However, this armchair strategy overlooks the challenges of economic reconstruction, attracting foreign investments and ensuring security and opportunities for Ukrainians, especially those who are now refugees abroad. 

Furthermore, Charap fails to acknowledge the critical importance of Crimea, which is under Russian control and allows them to disrupt Ukraine's sea lines of communication (SLOCs). The human dimension is also missing from Charap's analysis, as Ukrainians in the occupied territories have been subjected to mass murder, torture, rape, deportations, and the forcible adoption of Ukrainian children by Russians who aim to erase their national identity, constituting genocide under international law. Charap's reference to German unification is flawed since it was not solely a result of a diplomatic genius but rather due to the collapsing Soviet Union's inability to control the German Democratic Republic (an analog to the so-called Donetsk People's Republic).

Source: CDS Daily Brief 05.06.2023:
https://cdsdailybrief.substack.com/p/cds-daily-brief-050623?sd=pf