ASEAN Fights for Relevance - Foreign Policy

 

ASEAN Fights for Relevance 

Foreign Policy, Sept 6. 2023

Indonesia is hosting the three-day Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit this week. On Tuesday, leaders and officials from 10 countries convened in Jakarta to discuss regional security, territorial sovereignty, and growing animosity between the world’s two largest superpowers: the United States and China. ASEAN—whose members are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam—represents around 650 million people and more than $2.9 trillion in GDP.

Traditionally, the bloc had preached a policy of nonalignment due to strained loyalties between its biggest security partner, the United States, and its biggest economic partner, China. But recent foreign-policy challenges have tested that practice.

At the top of ASEAN’s agenda this week is the security crisis that has engulfed Myanmar since 2021, when its military overthrew the country’s quasi-democratic government and imprisoned many top leaders, including former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, as well as thousands of other critics. On Tuesday, reports emerged that the ruling junta had denied Aung San Suu Kyi’s request to see an outside physician for her ailing health. The military-led government was set to chair ASEAN in 2026, but the bloc announced on Tuesday that the Philippines would lead the grouping instead. Since the coup, ASEAN has pushed for a five-point peace plan that would end violence in Myanmar, catalyze peace talks between the junta and its opponents, and deliver humanitarian aid.

However, junta-attended dialogues hosted by Thailand and Cambodia have divided the bloc’s approach to the nation’s conflict. Specifically, Thailand and Cambodia, alongside China, have embraced the junta rather than calling for its ouster—while the rest of the bloc suspended Myanmar’s top generals from participating in this week’s ASEAN meetings.

Myanmar isn’t the only regional crisis limiting ASEAN’s effectiveness. Internal disagreements over China have curtailed the bloc’s ability to assert its power. Last week, Beijing released a new map that defined almost all of the South China Sea as under its sovereignty. Numerous ASEAN members—including Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam—denounced China’s actions. However, growing Chinese investment in the region, specifically through its Belt and Road Initiative, has hindered the bloc’s willingness to collectively counter rising Chinese aggression.

The bloc’s inability to agree on foreign-policy next steps has damaged its international reputation. Most significantly, major leaders such as U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping chose not to attend this year’s summit. Instead, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Chinese Premier Li Qiang will take their places. “We can complain all we want about other countries not respecting us or not coming to our summits,” former Indonesian Foreign Affairs Minister Marty Natalegawa said. “But ultimately, it is actually a point of reflection.”

Biden’s decision to skip this week’s summit was particularly humiliating for ASEAN because the U.S. president will be in the region later this week. On Thursday, Biden heads to India for the G-20 summit; he will then visit rising economic power Vietnam on Sunday. Despite its seeming deprioritization of ASEAN, the White House has been quick to reaffirm Washington’s interests in Southeast Asia, pointing to Biden’s creation of the first U.S.-hosted summit with ASEAN leaders last year. “It’s just impossible to look at the record that this administration has put forward and say that we are somehow walking away” from the region, White House spokesperson John Kirby said.