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Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

Mostrando postagens com marcador CDS. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador CDS. Mostrar todas as postagens

quinta-feira, 7 de novembro de 2024

A Ucrânia continua a sustentar o morticínio causado pela guerra de agressão da Rússia - CDS

Parte final da informação diária do Centro de Estudos de Defesa da Ucrânia, dia 6/11/2024: 

Humanitarian + general:

  • During the night of November 6, Russian forces launched 63 "Shahed" attack drones and other drones of an unspecified type at Ukraine, as well as striking Odesa Oblast with two guided aviation missiles, the Kh-59 and Kh-31P. Of the drones, 38 were destroyed, 20 were lost from radar, and two remained airborne at the time of the report. 

  • As a result of a Russian attack on energy infrastructure overnight on November 6, parts of Mykolaiv Oblast lost power. As of 8:00 a.m., 21 villages in the Pervomaisk District remained completely without power, with partial outages in the city of Pervomaisk. Electricity was unavailable for 25,500 residential and 1,500 commercial customers. 

  • A missile strike on Zaporizhzhia by Russian forces in the evening of November 5 resulted in seven deaths and 25 injuries. Overall, during the past day, Russian forces launched 301 attacks on 13 towns and villages in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 

  • After 11:00 a.m., Russian forces launched a strike from the temporarily occupied left bank on Zelenivka in Kherson Oblast. A couple in their home sustained injuries. Earlier, Russian shelling also wounded a man in Kherson and another man in Antonivka, a suburb of Kherson. 

  • In Chernihiv on the evening of November 6, a cruise missile explosion on the outskirts of the city injured two people. 

  • In the city of Kurakhove, Donetsk Oblast, around one thousand people remain, though due to the difficult and dangerous conditions, it is currently not possible to evacuate them. 

  • In Kherson Oblast on November 5, five people were injured as a result of Russian attacks. A total of 17 towns and villages in the oblast came under shelling and air strikes. 

  • In Donetsk Oblast on November 5, Russian forces launched 2,835 strikes, damaging eight civilian sites. 

  • The Prosecutor General’s Office reports that law enforcement is investigating 49 criminal cases concerning the killing of 124 prisoners of war on the battlefield. These killings began to rise in late 2023 and have reached unprecedented levels this year, with most cases recorded in Donetsk Oblast. 

  • Nearly half of Ukrainians (44%) report trying to buy the cheapest food available, regardless of quality, according to a survey conducted by the Razumkov Center from September 20 to 26. Meanwhile, 45% said they can afford to buy higher-quality, though more expensive, food. Another 11% were unable to give a definitive answer. 

  • The survey also showed that, since the full-scale invasion, the number of citizens barely making ends meet has increased to 12%, up from 9% in 2021. At the same time, the share of those who feel financially secure but cannot afford major purchases has grown from 6% to 9%. The percentage of people living at a sufficient level but struggling to buy durable goods like furniture or appliances has decreased from 44% to 41%.


terça-feira, 21 de maio de 2024

A destruição maciça perpetrada por Putin em sua guerra de agressão contra a Ucrânia - CDS

Não sei se Lula, seu governo, ou a diplomacia brasileira tomam conhecimento ou se interessam por esse tipo de destruição gratuita, assassina, terrorista: 

Humanitarian+general:

  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 13 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 115 towns and villages and 150 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.

  • On the night of May 21, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with 29 attack UAVs of the "Shahed-131/136" type, 28 of them were shot down.

  • During the night of May 20-21 in Kharkiv, the occupiers attacked one of the favorite leisure spots of local residents. Four people were injured.

  • The enemy struck Kharkiv throughout the night. Debris from enemy "Shahed" drones was found at four locations. According to the State Emergency Service, 5 people were injured as a result of the Russian "Shahed" attack. At 7:05 AM, the Russians launched a missile strike on a transport infrastructure facility, injuring a 53-year-old civilian man. As a result of the shelling, 25 trucks and buses and 3 cars were damaged.

  • On May 21, Russian forces launched drone strikes on a police vehicle evacuating people from the Vovchansk community. The law enforcement officer suffered a concussion.

  • On Tuesday, May 21 Russian forces dropped explosives from a drone on the village of Antonivka in Kherson Oblast, resulting in injuries to three women.

  • On May 21, Russian forces targeted the Shumenskyi neighborhood in Kherson. An apartment building was hit, injuring three people, including a 15-year-old boy.

  • Russian forces launched a missile strike on Konotop in Sumy Oblast, damaging industrial infrastructure. The consequences of the Russian attack are being clarified.

  • The Russian occupation authorities have declared thousands of apartments and houses in the occupied territories of Ukraine as "ownerless property" and intend to confiscate them for the benefit of the state. According to calculations by "Novaia Gazeta Europa," over three years, the occupation administrations have identified 13.3 thousand "ownerless" real estate objects, half of which were identified in less than the full year of 2024.

  • According to Petro Andryushchenko, an advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol, up to 80,000 Russians have arrived and are currently residing in Mariupol, which is temporarily occupied by the Russian army. Russia's aggression has led to one of the largest humanitarian catastrophes in Mariupol. The city is nearly 90% destroyed due to shelling. The occupiers are also demolishing damaged buildings to conceal the evidence of their crimes. During the blockade and occupation, Russian forces destroyed 50% of the city's high-rise buildings—934 buildings in total, of which 465 have already been demolished. Over 52,000 apartments of Mariupol residents have been destroyed.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020.


terça-feira, 14 de maio de 2024

A ofensiva russa contra Kharkiv e seus resultados em perdas militares - Boletim diário do CDS

 Registro o boletim completo desta jornada especialmente destruidora, mas destaco de imediato as perdas russas nas diversas frentes de batalha registradas por esse think tank ucraniano, independente do governo. 

Mais 1.400 vítimas do lado russo num único dia. Até quando as famílias russas suportarão esse nível de perdas de seus familiares, de uma guerra provocada e mantida por Putin.

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Brasília, 14/05/2024


Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 14.05.24  

Personnel - almost 485,430 (+1400); 

Tanks 7,496 (+11); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,460 (+43); 

Artillery systems – 12,515 (+28);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,070 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 798 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 16,907 (+29);

Aircraft - 351 (+1);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,985 (+49);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,197 (0);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

=========

Russia's war on Ukraine. 14.05.24

Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) "North" on the Kharkiv direction, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting urban clearance operations in Vovchansk. Combat actions are ongoing, but the situation remains under control.

In the "Khortytsia" OSG operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 22 enemy attacks along the Lyman Pershyi - Synkivka, Vilshanka - Synkivka, Krokhmalne - Berestove, Kolomyichykha - Stelmakhivka, Kovalivka - Novoyehorivka, and Ploshchanka - Makiyivka directions. In some sectors, the Ukrainian Defense Forces improved their tactical positions. Battles for individual positions continue along the Kovalivka - Novoyehorivka and Kyslivka - Ivanivka directions. On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 enemy attack along the Chervonopopivka - Ivanivka direction, improving tactical positions in certain sectors. On the Siversk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 15 enemy attacks along the Lysychansk - Bilohorivka, Novodruzhesk - Bilohorivka, Vesele - Verkhnyokamianske, Zolotarivka - Verkhnyokamianske, Vesele - Rozdolivka, and Mykolaivka - Spirne directions, with no success for the enemy. On the Kramatorsk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 35 enemy attacks along the Bakhmut - Ivanivske, Bakhmut - Klishchiivka, and Odradivka - Klishchiivka directions. 

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 33 attacks on the Ocheretyne - Novooleksandrivka, Ocheretyne - Yevhenivka, Ocheretyne - Kalynove, and Arkhanhelske – Novooleksandrivka directions. Due to the intense enemy fire, some positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces were changed to ensure the preservation of personnel's lives.  On the Kurakhove direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 13 enemy attacks, including areas such as Staromykhailivka - Krasnohorivka and Slavne - Novomykhailivka. On the Vremivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 11 attacks in the areas of Solodke - Vodyane, Zavitne Bazhannia - Staromayorske, and Volodyne - Staromayorske. On the Hulyaipole direction, the enemy did not conduct offensive (assault) actions but delivered artillery and mortar attacks on Chervone and Zelenyi Hai.  On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy, with air support, attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces twice in the area of Robotyne.

In the operational zone of the "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 4 enemy attacks in the direction of Oleshkivski Pisky - Krynky.

General conclusion: 

  • The relativelyrapid advancement of Russian forces in Vovchansk and the destruction of several bridges over key waterways within the town indicate that the Russian military command is establishing a buffer zone rather than attempting to advance deeper into Ukrainian territory.

  • Enemy advancement rates have decreased on the Kharkiv operational direction, while losses have increased.

  • The command of the enemy's "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping doesn't have enough troops and gear to push forward towards Stary Saltiv and Artemivka, which makes it tough for the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping to make progress on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions.

  • In the last 6 months, the Ukrainian Defense Forces' ability to intercept aerial targets has significantly decreased. They managed to intercept only 46% of targets, compared to 73% in the previous 6 months, with the rate falling to 30% in April.

  • The adversary escalated the use of missiles and strike UAVs by 45% over the last 6 months, including a doubling of Shahed UAVs. The Russian Aerospace Forces continually experiment and adapt their air strike structure to exploit vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian Air Defense systems.

  • Responsibility for several missile strikes on Ukraine lies with the 52nd and 121st Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiments of the 22nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Division, operating from Engels (Saratov Oblast) and Shaykovka (Kaluga Oblast) airbases. They employ Tu-95MS and Tu-160 strategic bombers, using Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles, and Tu-22M3 long-range bombers from Engels airbase, utilizing Kh-22/32 cruise missiles.

  • The adversary faces challenges evacuating wounded from the Dnipro Delta islands due to a shortage of boats and the dominance of Ukrainian Defense Forces' UAVs in the Dnipro Delta.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

  • There were 148 combat engagements on various fronts.

  • On the Kharkiv direction, units of the 79th and 280th Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division and the 7th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 11th Army Corps are operating in the areas of Lyptsi and Vesele. The enemy is attempting to break through on two main direcyions – towards Lyptsi (along the general direction of Strilecha - Hlyboke and along the Lypets River from the direction of Lukyantsi). The enemy has fully occupied Hlyboke and is advancing southwest of Oliinykove and north of Lukyantsi, where it has achieved tactical success; its forward units are engaged in combat in the Lukyantsi area.

  • On the Vovchansk direction, units from the 1st and 47th Tank Divisions of the 1st Tank Army, along with the 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Combined Arms Army, are pushing towards Vovchansk from Pletenivka while also trying to flank the city from the west. They're moving along the Siversky Donetsk River towards Ohirtseve - Buhruvatka and Hatyshche - Synelnykove to cut off the road from Starytsya to Vovchansk in the Prylipka area. Though they haven't reached the road, the enemy is attempting to penetrate the area of Kreydova Hora north of Buhruvatka, advancing through the forest zone south of Ohirtseve. They've captured the Vovchansk Meat Processing Plant, a footwear factory, and are advancing towards the city center along the right bank of the Vovcha River. The enemy continues attacks in Prylipka and conducts clearance operations in Starytsya and Buhruvatka, but hasn't fully controlled these areas. Russian forces attacked along the Izbytske - Starytsya - Buhruvatka line and near Tykhe. Fighting occurred between Lyptsi and the Vovchansk bulge near Zelene.

  • The Ukrainian Defense Forces counterattacked near Hlyboke but withdrew from Ternova. The tactical group of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Vovchansk has only two logistical routes across two bridges, which have not yet been destroyed.

  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attacked near Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Ivanivka, Berestove, Stelmakhivka, Makiivka, and Novoyehorivka.

  • On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attempted an unsuccessful assault on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces between Torske and Terny. They made minor advances north of Torske and south of Yampolivka. The Ukrainian Defense Forces launched three ATACMS missiles at an ammunition depot in the occupied territory of Sorokine, Luhansk Oblast.

  • On the Siversk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Spirne, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka, and conducted counterattacks near Spirne and Rozdolivka.

  • On the Kramatorsk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces regained previously lost positions in the wooded area in the southwest of Bohdanivka. Heavy fighting continued around Chasiv Yar. Combat operations persisted near Hryhorivka, Ivanivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.

  • Russian forces attempted to launch offensive operations from the western outskirts of Bohdanivka towards Kalynivka to create conditions for encircling Chasiv Yar through its northern flank. They also advanced on the southern flank of Chasiv Yar, particularly west of Ivanivka and in the vicinity of the Stupky-Holubivskyi-2 nature reserve. The attack on Klishchiivka was unsuccessful and resulted in the loss of nearly the entire assault group.

  • On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces were advancing westward from Ocheretyne towards Novooleksandrivka, westward from Semenivka towards Umanske, and attacking in the area of Arkhanhelske, on the Solovyove-Novopokrovske line, towards Umanske, and on the line of Netaylove-Pervomaiske-Nevelske.

  • On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces are advancing towards the center of Krasnohorivka, within the vicinity of Paraskoviivka, and in the fields south of the village. The enemy has launched 18 attacks in the direction of Kurakhove, particularly near Krasnohorivka and Novomykhailivka.

  • On the Orikhiv direction, Russian forces have advanced north in Robotyne and in the fields east of Robotyne. Positional battles have been ongoing near Robotyne and Verbove.

  • On the Pryndniprovskiy direction, positional battles were ongoing on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky. The Ukrainian Defense Forces launched a missile strike on the positional area of the enemy's radar station of the 3rd Radio-Technical Regiment of the 31st Air Defense Division on Mount Ai-Petri in the occupied Crimea.

  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

    • Mediterranean Sea: 3 ships, including 1 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 8 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

  • Up to 25,000 personnel, including the 13th BARS detachment, are involved in operations in the Chasiv Yar area.

Possible operation situation developments:

  • The enemy command has deployed up to 5-6 BTGs, reinforced with tank units (presumably from the 11th Tank Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division and the 153rd Tank Regiment of the 47th Tank Division). Within the next 24 hours, the enemy command may increase its efforts on the Kharkiv direction, by engaging an additional 2 BTGs from the 30th and 41st Motorized Rifle Regiments of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 44th Army Corps or the 138th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 6th Army.

  • In the near future, the enemy will launch an invasion from the territory of Kursk Oblast with the forces of the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, supported by units of the 11th Army Corps, in the general direction towards Velyka Pysarivka.

  • Expect enemy capture of Synkivka soon, along with intense rear-guard actions north of Kupyansk's eastern outskirts, for Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane, and Berestove.

  • The adversary may concentrate additional assault units in the advance zone of the 98th Airborne Division, where it previously managed to advance closest to the Chasiv Yar boundary. It will attempt to break through on May 10-11 along two axes: in the advance zone of the 217th Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division towards the "Kanal" neighborhood and in the advance zone of the 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division towards the "Novyi" neighborhood.

  • The adversary may attempt to bypass Chasiv Yar without directly assaulting the city, by operating from the south and southeast, while simultaneously forming a northern flank for the Toretsk operation.

  • The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces' ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.

  • The "Center" Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle "Tavriya" OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.

  • The enemy's "Vostok" Operational Grouping is gearing up for active operations on the southern flank of the Kurakhove-Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in coordination with the left flank of the "Yug" Operational Grouping, which is currently attempting to break through towards Kurakhove through Hryhorivka and Paraskoviivka-Kostyantynivka along the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly Rivers.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 14.05.24  

Personnel - almost 485,430 (+1400); 

Tanks 7,496 (+11); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,460 (+43); 

Artillery systems – 12,515 (+28);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,070 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 798 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 16,907 (+29);

Aircraft - 351 (+1);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,985 (+49);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,197 (0);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

  • According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 96 towns and villages and 78 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.

  • During the night of May 14th, the Ukrainian air defense successfully shot down all 18 Russian Shahed drones launched by the adversary.

  • On May 14th, during daylight hours, Russian occupying forces dealt multiple strikes on residential areas in the central part of Kharkiv. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, at least 16 people were injured, including three children. As a result of Russian shelling of Kharkiv on the evening of May 14, 21 people were injured, including three children.

  • The Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor's Office reports that on May 14th, in the village of Starytsya in the Vovchansk community, a Russian serviceman shot and killed a local resident at close range. Additionally, during the armed attack, another man went missing.

  • In Vovchansk, two civilian volunteers went missing on May 10th. According to the police, they were shot by occupiers, and one of them may have been killed.

  • On the morning of May 14th, Russian forces attacked the city of Nikopol, resulting in the death of a 45-year-old man. Another local resident sustained shrapnel wounds.

  • Due to increased electricity consumption (due to cold weather), scheduled emergency power outages were implemented in Kyiv in the evening of May 14, including for residential areas, according to a statement from the Kyiv City Military Administration. Later, "Ukrenerho" announced that it was forced to implement controlled emergency power outages in all regions of Ukraine. Additionally, electricity imports from neighboring countries are breaking records again. Over the course of a day, electricity imports from Romania, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, and Moldova totaled 21,072 MW-hours.

  • At the Zmiiv and Trypillya Thermal Power Plants, debris from missile strikes on March 22 and April 11 is still being cleared. The debris removal is expected to continue for another one and a half to two months.

  • Only half of the Ukrainian refugees currently residing in Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic are willing to return home if conditions allow. Most respondents cited the need for normal functioning of critical infrastructure (34%) and security (34%). Other important factors include housing (26%) and the cessation of full-scale invasion (26%). Additionally, 16% emphasized the opportunity to find employment, and 13% highlighted the importance of their children being able to attend school or daycare. These findings are from a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in April.

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sábado, 9 de setembro de 2023

Guerra de agressão da Rússia contra a Ucrânia: os invasores continuam a sofrer derrotas; ucranianos avançam lentamente, mas seguramente - CDS

 Operational situation

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) "Khortytsia" on the Kupyansk, Lyman, and Bakhmut directions, the enemy persists in attempting to break through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of Synkivka, Novoyehorivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, and southeast of Dibrova. They seek to regain control over positions in the areas of Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka.

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) "Tavriya" on the Avdiivka, Maryinka, and Shakhtarsk directions, the Ukrainian Defense Forces maintain the initiative. They persist in applying pressure on the enemy and conducting assault operations.

The Russian military carried out offensive actions on the Kupyansk - Svatove - Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka - Donetsk line, in the area of the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and the west of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and have advanced in some areas.

General conclusion: 

  • The operational situation on the Kupyansk and Lyman directions is getting increasingly acute. The enemy's offensive efforts on this section of the front have failed to achieve significant success and are aimed at drawing a portion of the Ukrainian Defense Forces' strategic reserves away from more vital areas of the front.

  • Russian troops aim to reach the Oskil River and seize positions near Borova by the beginning of winter 2023-2024.

  • On the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, Russian troops continue to form and train assault units from previously defeated motorized rifle brigades and airborne units.

  • The Russian military command is utilizing communication troops personnel to form assault groups due to recent significant losses. These losses are compelling the enemy's command to deploy available manpower for combat operations.

  • The number of [the enemy] checkpoints from Melitopol to Dniprorudne decreased from 18 to 3 due to attacks of the "Atesh" partisan movement. A similar situation is observed on other roads.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • 30 combat engagements took place in different directions.

  • On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensives near Synkivka, where they attempted to encircle the Ukrainian garrison from the east and west. They also futilely attacked near Petropavlivka and Novoyehorivka, employing units formed from prisoners and private military companies for assault operations. The enemy repelled units of the "Khortytsia" OSG from undefined heights near Novoyehorivka. However, they did not gain control over these positions and suffered losses in the area along the Zherebets River, near Kreminna, and in the Serebryansk Forest.

  • The "Khortytsia" OSG attacked near Novoyehorivka, Dibrova, Serebryansk forest, advanced deep into the defense line of the Russian 27th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Tank Army and 252nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Army.

  • On the Bakhmut direction, the "Khortytsia" OSG continued its offensive actions and achieved partial success, advancing north of Andriivka and Klishchiivka, took control of half of Andriivka, and reached the railway line. They completely liberated Klishchiivka, intensified the offensive along the Klishchiivka - Ozaryanivka line, and attacked near Bakhmut, Vesele, and Orikhovo-Vasylivka.

  • Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Andriivka. They also stormed Zaliznyanske and Kurdyumivka, but did not succeed in any of the directions. 

  • The Russian tactical group consisting of the 137th Air Assault Regiment, 106th Air Assault Division, 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 29th BARS detachment and the "Potok" PMC detachment halted the advance of the "Khortytsia" OSG in the direction of Soledar. A counterattack by the 61st Separate Marines Brigade of the Northern Fleet in the Klishchiivka area was not only repelled by the "Khortytsia" OSG, but the enemy also suffered significant losses and was pushed back beyond the railway.

  • On the Avdiivka direction, the Russian assault group of the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 1st Army Corps of the 8th Army captured the positions of the "Khortytsia" OSG unit east of Krasnohorivka. The 150th Motorized Rifle Division unsuccessfully advanced in Maryinka. Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked on the southern approaches to Avdiivka, near Keramik and Novomykhailivka.

  • The "Khortytsia" OSG advanced in the area of Spartak and Opytne villages and partly returned control of the "Donetsk" international airport.

  • Zaporizhzhya direction:

    • Berdyansk direction (Velyka Novosilka): Forces of the "Tavriya" OSG repelled Russian attacks south of Prechystivka, and intensified their offensive actions on the Novodonetske-Novomayorske line. Over the course of three days, they conducted artillery preparation for an attack, cleared minefields, and engaged in combat on the northern outskirts of both villages. They captured enemy positions on the northwestern outskirts of Novomayorske and regained control over the industrial zone in Pavlivka.

    • Units of the Russian 36th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Army repelled an attack by an assault group northeast of Mykilske. The enemy also thwarted attempts by units of the "Tavriya" OSG to cross the Shaitanka River. The situation of the 131st Rifle Regiment of Mobilization Reserve of the 1st Army Corps in Novodonetske is critical.

    • Tokmak direction (Robotyne): the forces of the "Tavriya" OSG achieved success south of Robotyne. Marine infantry units of the "Tavriya" OSG crossed the Mokri Yaly river, cleared the outskirts of Zavitne Bazhannia and forced units of the Russian 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade to retreat to the center of the village. Combat continues on the northern and western outskirts of Novoprokopivka, where the Russian 71st and 210-1st Motorized Rifle Regiments are defending.

    • To support counterattacks in the Robotyne area, the enemy has deployed a significant number of S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems in ballistic mode. They have delivered up to 40 strikes with planning bombs FAB-500/UMPK from Su-34 aircraft. The strikes are primarily targeting a logistics route of the "Tavriya" OSG, extending up to 6 km in length.

  • Kherson direction: Russian forces are experiencing significant personnel and equipment losses due to counter-battery actions by the "Tavriya" OSG in Kherson Oblast. This limits their combat capability and forces them to deploy reserves, which are currently concentrated in Crimea. 

  • The enemy continues to respond to raids by units of the "Tavriya" OSG in the delta of the Dnieper River, pushing back their small group from Kozatsky Island. Battles are ongoing on the islands in the delta of the Dnieper River. The "Tavriya" OSG has already established four bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnieper (2 on the northern outskirts of Oleshky, 1 near Kozachi Laheri, 1 near Antonivskyi Bridge), controls the Kinburn Spit under fire, and actively employs the Bayraktar TB-2 UAVs, exploiting the enemy's weak air defense capabilities in this direction.

  • In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, there were 9 Russian ships on combat duty in the Black Sea, including 1 cruise missile carrier; 1 in the Sea of Azov; there were 2 Russian ships on combat duty in the Mediterranean. The total salvo is up to 8 Kalibr cruise missiles. 

Change in the line of contact (LoC):  

  • The enemy is deploying forces from the 18th Army to free up the 49th Army for operations on the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Possible operation situation developments: 

  • Russian forces will attempt to seize the initiative amidst the Defense Forces' offensive operation by initiating their own offensive operation with the forces of 2-3 armies. Their aim is to advance westward to the Oskil River and establish a buffer zone around the occupied Luhansk Oblast over the next two months.

  • On the Berdyansk direction, the enemy has to hold the Pavlivka - Mykilske line as a precondition for disrupting the advance of the "Tavriya" OSG towards Volodymyrivka - Volnovakha.

  • The enemy's command has to reinforce its tactical group on the Nesteryanka-Kopani line (the 234th Air Assault Regiment of the 76th Air Assault Division) or replace them with the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 104th Air Assault Regiment.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 09.09.23 

Personnel - almost 268,140 people (+600);

Tanks - 4,544 (+15);

Armored combat vehicles – 8,739 (+13);

Artillery systems – 5,789 (+36);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) - 757 (+3);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 508 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks –8,298 (+34);

Aircraft - 315 (0);

Helicopters – 316 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 4,588 (+18);

Intercepted cruise missiles - 1,455 (0);

Boats/ships – 19 (0).


sexta-feira, 25 de agosto de 2023

Ascensão e queda, e morte, na Rússia de Putin - Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS)

 The story of the Wagner PMC, a quintessentially Russian narrative, has reached its conclusion. 

Employing infernal symbolism, Vladimir Putin orchestrated the demise of Yevgeniy Prigozhin, a one-time loyal supporter turned renegade, marking the beginning of the failed mutiny two months ago. This event draws striking parallels to the assassination of Anna Politkovskaya, an independent Russian journalist and vehement critic of Vladimir Putin, who was murdered on Putin's birthday seventeen years ago. Putin's reputation is rooted in ruthless actions and rancour. Among those observing Kremlin affairs, few doubted that the leader of Wagner was doomed.

The tradition of absolute power runs deep in Russia's history, tracing back to Muscovite rulers like Ivan the Terrible and even earlier. In this system, a czar holds complete authority over all subjects, treating them as possessions regardless of their social status – whether nobles with recognized rights or serfs with limited freedoms. The ruler retains the authority to bestow official positions or property as he pleases, without temporal restrictions. The ruler's “jurisdiction” extends to the appropriation of his subjects' possessions, freedoms, and even lives, at his sole discretion and timing. Concepts like the Magna Carta and Habeas Corpus remain foreign to Russia, up to the present day.

The FSB, a successor to the KGB, intricately blurred the lines between the state and the criminal underworld. Yevgeniy Prigozhin, a convicted criminal, has been a recurring figure in Vladimir Putin's realm since the tumultuous 1990s. Back then, Putin, serving as an aide to the mayor of St. Petersburg, was involved in a web of corrupt dealings and more serious transgressions. After consolidating his power and dismantling the oligarchic circle around "retired" President Boris Yeltsin, Putin assumed dominion over virtually all facets of Russia—its assets, entities, and populace.

Dissenters found themselves met with a choice between assassination, incarceration, or banishment from the Russian landscape. From that juncture, the so-called oligarchs were granted the liberty to misappropriate and squander resources, exercising unrestrained control. However, they had to satisfy the actual proprietor through bribes—whether channeling funds towards his caprices at the Gelendzhik palace or endowing various opulent superyachts. Moreover, they were mandated to fund a spectrum of intelligence operations and exert influence campaigns abroad on behalf of the Kremlin. It's important to highlight that they never held control over Putin's decisions, which excludes them from being classified as genuine oligarchs..

The so-called Wagner Private Military Company (bearing in mind that formal mercenary endeavors are proscribed within Russia) has functioned as a valuable instrument for the Kremlin, offering a shroud of plausible deniability. Prigozhin evolved into a well-established operator in Africa with some 5,000 mercenary forces deployed across the continent. A sophisticated network of companies established and run by Yevgeniy Prigozhin generated profit from the mercenary business serving various regimes. This endeavor not only yielded financial gains but also facilitated access to coveted resources encompassing precious minerals such as gold and diamonds, as well as fossil fuels like oil and gas.

Parallel to the inflow of untraceable financial resources, the operations conducted by the Wagner PMC bolstered the Kremlin's capacity to wield influence beyond its apparent heft, in the competitive arena of African influence vis-à-vis more resource-abundant entities from the free world and China. Before the extensive involvement in Ukraine, the Wagner PMC had already gained infamy due to its involvement in war crimes in Africa and Syria.

While the Wagner PMC momentarily captured headlines with its audacious march towards Moscow during in June, the Kremlin's propaganda machine skillfully revealed that the company's autonomy was less substantial than it seemed. Notably, the company received significant military contracts totaling $2 billion between May 2022 and 2023. Concurrently, a sophisticated propaganda network associated with Wagner, including entities like the Internet Research Agency (previously implicated in U.S. electoral interference), secured an astonishing $20 billion in government contracts.

The Kremlin discarded its facade of plausible deniability by orchestrating the destruction of a civilian aircraft carrying the chieftain and his key subordinates. In doing so, the Kremlin effectively eliminated former collaborators and operatives who had displayed disloyalty. It's worth noting that Yevgeniy Prigozhin was destined for doom even without the staged mutiny, a fate shared by numerous other figures who fought in Ukraine since 2014, often portrayed in propaganda as local "miners and tractor drivers" in the so-called civil war narrative.

Speculation has arisen regarding Yevgeniy Prigozhin's rumored possession of a collection of Kompromat, potentially containing compromising information about Vladimir Putin and other senior regime figures. This alleged leverage was reportedly intended for release in case of Prigozhin's untimely demise. Some of his mercenary forces, motivated by loyalty, issued threats to retaliate against those deemed responsible (Vladimir Putin and/or military leadership) for the assassination of their revered chieftain.

The Russian Volunteer Corps, a military unit operating within the Ukrainian Armed Forces, extended an invitation to Wagner PMC members who had refrained from participating in war crimes during their time in Ukraine—although such instances appeared quite rare. The offer was for them to join their ranks and confront Putin and the Russian military. 

Those Russians, often holding fascist and imperialistic views, who are now setting up improvised memorials for Yevgeniy Prigozhin in various Russian cities or engaged in the war have learned that the next mutiny or coup d'état must result in Vladimir Putin's demise. He, they argue, bears responsibility for the catastrophic war in Ukraine, having breached agreements with Prigozhin. However, the feasibility of these threats remains questionable, as the Wagnerites were disarmed (heavy armaments and artillery), bereft of significant resources, and severed from their influential leader's connections within both the ruling hierarchy and criminal circles.

While their capabilities remain restricted, it's conceivable that dissatisfied individuals could become involved in future insurrections, especially if a coup d'état orchestrated by elements within the regime occurs, or if Russian forces experience a collapse in Ukraine leading to internal turmoil. However, these individuals might also become targets of mid and low-tier purges following actions by higher echelons of power. Russia's non-democratic framework impedes crisis resolution through elections, and Putin's inability for criminal-like dealings within the elite was starkly demonstrated as unviable. Putin doesn't obey either formal agreements or his words, which is also a lesson for the Western partners willing to find a diplomatic solution to the "Ukrainian war."

The Russian military has lost a formidable and highly effective (within Russian context) fighting force, bolstered by considerable resources. The legacy of the Wagner enterprise is now being taken up by both established and emerging loyalists. It wouldn't be surprise if figures like Viktor Bout, dubbed the "Merchant of Death," are positioned to secure substantial African assets—his conspicuous presence at the recent Russia-Africa summit lends credence to this prospect. Nevertheless, it's unlikely that Putin will repeat the mistake of allowing an individual or faction to amass resources that could potentially threaten his personal authority.

Wagner's striking ability to achieve outcomes that the conventional Armed Forces struggled with highlights the clear inefficiencies of the existing governance model. Putin, invested billions into his war apparatus and attempted reforms on multiple occasions, obsessively cultivating an image of Russia as a potent state fortified by a formidable military. Yet, the mutiny's occurrence and its resolution exposed the limitations of Putin's authority, eroding his portrayal as an invincible strongman—an element pivotal within Russian political culture.

The public's support for the Wagnerites and the popularity of figures like Yevgeniy Prigozhin reveal the deep-rooted discontent prevailing within society. Escalating internal contradictions coupled with the progressively evident catastrophe triggered by the ongoing war foreshadow a monumental upheaval, unparalleled in recent Russian history. This convulsion might be catalyzed by domestic triggers or, more likely, by the inevitable successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Though more robust and swift support from the West to Ukraine has been dragged back by the fear of Russia’s collapse, it’s highly likely to came about. It’s better for Ukraine and its partners to turn to contingency planning.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020. 

domingo, 30 de julho de 2023

Perdas Russas na Ucrânia, desde o início da invasão (24/02/2022) e entre março e julho de 2023

Os invasores russos possuem mais homens e armas, mas o ritmo das perdas segundo fontes ucranianas são importantes. Putin não deve se importar com vidas humanas, mas em algum momento armas e munições vão escassear. 

Perdas Russas na Ucrânia


Russian operational losses in Ukraine

 

Nature of the losses, personnel and equipment

From 24.02.22 to 30.03.23

From 24.02.22 to 29.07.23

Increase from March to July 2023

 

Personnel

177.290

245.220

67.930

 

Tanks

3.610

4.191

681

 

Armored combat vehicles

6.974

8.167

1.193

 

Artillery systems

2.671

4.786

2.115

 

Multiple rocket launchers

526

698

171

 

Anti-aircraft systems

278

458

180

 

Vehicles and fuel tanks

5.518

7.247

1.729

 

Aircraft

306

315

9

 

Helicopters

291

311

20

 

UAV operational. tactical 

2.239

4.007

1.768

 

Intercepted cruise missiles

911

1.347

436

 

Boats/ships

18

18

0

 

Source: Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS), Ukrainian security think tank.