Ataques misteriosos contra o Irã: Israel, EUA, Ucrânia? - Chris Snow (Medium)

 Um notícia de janeiro, que tinha me passado despercebida...

Chris Snow

Jan 29

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7 min read

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Air strikes in Iran: The military facility in Isfahan was hit by a drone attack. A refinery was also set ablaze

Iran has been providing Shaheed 136 and Shaheed 131 drones to Russia. These drone deliveries were heavily condemned by the West. Iran was threatened with sanctions and other consequences to encourage the regime to discontinue these deliveries.

The Iranian regime has recently cracked down very hard on its own people. After the protests against the regime going on since mid-September, have since then taken a turn towards a revolution. The people of Iran do not just want change from this government. They want the regime gone entirely.

Another horrible mistake that the Iranian Mullah regime made was providing Russia with arms or rather terrror weapons in its war against Ukraine. Now, a drone factory was hit. However, it is unclear who is behind these attacks.

The geo-political chess game just got a lot trickier since these recent strikes last night

“An explosion has occurred in one of the military centers affiliated to the Ministry of Defense,” the deputy head of security for Isfahan governorate Mohammad Reza Jan-Nesari told the semi-official Fars News Agency.

The West has often criticized this decision and warned Iran of possible consequences of such actions. The regime in Teheran obviously didn’t heed these warnings. However, who is behind these attacks is still shrouded in mystery.

What we do know is that among other strikes there is also a huge fire reported in Azarsharhr in an East Azerbaijan province, the attack seem to be well coordinated and have been targeted against military and industrial facilities all across the country. The strikes are still ongoing as new strikes are reported against an IRGC base in Mahabad.

These attacks are a major escalation in the increasingly violent struggle of the Iranian peopel against their own government

Iranian sources reported that explosions were heard in Hamedan and Karaj

The Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs will evacuate their embassy staff and members of their families from Iran today. We must keep in mind that the Israeli Airforce has been granted access to an airfield on the territory of Aszerbaidschan in close proximity to the Iranian border. US officials have been rather unhappy with this arrangement.

U.S. intelligence officials are worried that Israel’s military involvement in Azerbaijan would make it more difficult for the U.S. to reduce Israeli-Iranian tensions. Apparently now, military planners must prepare for a war scenario that would also involve the Caucasus.

“We’re watching what Iran does closely,” said a U.S. intelligence officer involved in assessing the consequences of a potential Israeli strike on Iran. “But we’re now watching what Israel is doing in Azerbaijan. And we’re not happy about it.”

'Azerbaijan granted Israel access to air bases on Iran border'

Israel has been granted access to air bases in Azerbaijan on Iran's northern border, Foreign Policy reported Wednesday…

www.haaretz.com

These attacks and the news about them are still very fresh. We find ourselves in a stone-cold whodunnit scenario

Note: From here on out, this is an opinion piece.

The current regime has lost its legimitacy with its people, while many Western media outlets wish to present the case as “civil unrest” or “protests” that couldn’t be further from the truth.

The Iranian regime has started to kill people, torture them, and imprison them in mass.

The Iranian people do not want reforms from the regime, they want the regime gone, they want to take care of their own affairs without some morality police telling them how to live or a security guard eavesdropping on their conversations. These aren’t protests. This is a revolution made by the people and for the people to remove the Mullah dictatorship from power.

Let’s try to answer the question: Who could be behind these attacks?

“Freedom is never given voluntarily by the oppressor; it must be demanded by the oppressed.” You must demand it, for it will not be given freely. Dr. Martin Luther King

Semper sic tyrannis

1. Mossad Special Operation

My first guess would be that the Mossad smuggled in a dozen or so foreign-made drones to one of the insurgent or anti-regime groups and provided coordinates of some lightly-defended, highly-flammable targets.

Iran has been executing peaceful civilians for a while now, so the now still peaceful protestors may soon join the ranks of the more violent arm of the revolution as they may be ready to move to a less peaceful approach.

That explanation is possible, although as widespread and coordinated as it seems at this moment, I’d guess there is some level of professionalism that goes beyond the capacity of local insurgent groups.

I really doubt this is a Mossad led insurgency on the ground type of operation. Even though it would probably be the best-case scenario, if the attack was executed by anti-regime groups rather than a foreign power.

Likelihood: 3/10

Option 2: The USA did it

Israel has a lot of agents and cells in Iran.This was totally something they could set in motion. The way the Mossad works in Iran is absolutely master class. I highly doubt this was the US, though. The US does not like doing anything kinetic in Iran these days.

Except that the computer virus that the US and Israel sent towards Iran, which was pretty gangster. Autocratic regimes all around the world love to blame everything on the US. Don’t be shocked as the accusations are going to come in pretty soon.

Likelihood: 1/10

Drones attack military plant in Iran: Tehran | CNN

Drones attacked a military plant in Iran's central city of Isfahan, Tehran said on Sunday. "An explosion has occurred…

edition.cnn.com

Option 3: China

Maybe it was Xi. But if you thought the US and Russia both had their problems with the Middle East, I am deeply skeptical of what would the Chinese COIN operations look like. That’s assuming the Chinese military is even bothered by trying to understand the local culture/religion.

Their best option would be to try to establish mass surveillance to run facial recognition and whack the folks who seem to be doing suspicious stuff or disappear off of the grid for hours/days at a time. But first they need to get the cameras up and running when the insurgents are probably going to suspect something is up with the Chinese trying to install cameras in every house, apartment elevators/hallways, alleyway, streetlight and so on.

Likelihood: 2/10

Option 4: Ukraine is sending their regards with the kind support of the Israeli Air Force and Western intelligence

The CIA director is in Israel right now. The US did say they would “work to distrust the supply of weapons and drones to Russia”. Ukraine has warned Iran as well about the continuation of this close relationship. Israel was less than happy about Iranian drone deliveries as well. Iran is using Russia as a proxy for their own fight against Israel. Russia really fell very low by becoming a proxy of Iran in this geo-political chess game. Also, recent remarks about giving nukes to Iran by Russia’s propaganda machine could have triggered a reaction by Israel.

It could also be a false flag operation by the revolutionary guard to distract us all from the revolution. Potentially, that could backfire, though. What is for sure: The Israelis are on edge and geared up because a Palestinian just killed 7 people outside of a synagogue in east Jerusalem.

Armed drones strike Iranian defense 'workshop' in Isfahan

Bomb-carrying drones targeted an Iranian defense factory in the central city of Isfahan overnight, authorities said…

www.timesofisrael.com

So, I think it’s more likely the CIA is in Tel Aviv to try and keep the Israelis calm than they are trying to organize covert strikes rather than to discuss secret strikes against Iran.

Still, this scenario has some credibility to it. This might be a message by the West delivered by a close ally Israel. The message is going out to Teheran but also towards Moscow: Stop these drone attacks and deliveries. Otherwise, none of these factories will be left standing. The scenario of an Israeli drone strike seems to be the most credible and most likely explanation here.

Likelihood: 8/10

Summary and Conclusion:

Probably all of that is another sad comedy of incompetence with some warcrimes sprinkled in. The Iranian regime has made many mistakes lately. Sending these drones to Russia was one of them. Acting with such brutality and violence against the Iranian people is another one. Iran is just one of many geo-political players who have underestimated the strength of the West and the strength of people unwilling to bow to tyranny.

I have ultimately no answer for you who is behind these strikes. Time will tell, but feel free to share your opinion with me in the comments as to what you think? Who is behind these strikes?

No nation deserves freedom or can long retain it, which does not win it for itself. Revolutions must be made by the people and for the people. Giuseppe Mazzini

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Chris Snow

30+ year old History Professor and educator. MA in Business Ethics and Modern European History. History has much to teach, but it doesn't find enough students

Lies and corruption: Sailor of the Black Sea flagship “Moskva” Alexander gives new revealing insights that contributed to seal the Moskva’s fate - Chris Snow (Medium)

 Uma história inacreditável, real e surpreendente, sobre o despreparo, corrupção e total inoperância no comando nas Forças Armadas da Rússia. Um trecho do relato do "marinheiro Alexander": 

"At one point, two loud explosions sounded, and the lights went out abruptly. Currently, I was in the cockpit and resting after the watch. Panic began, there were no commands or alarm on the broadcast for ten minutes, and then the senior assistant commander, Captain 2nd rank Gudkov, announced the gathering of personnel in the ship’s dining room, the appointment of emergency groups and the beginning of the struggle for survivability. There was darkness and smoke all around. As it turned out, the first missile hit between the galley and the dining room, and the second between the post of the Osa-MA air defense system and the torpedo tube, by the way, it is still not clear why it did not detonate."

Cabe ler por inteiro...

Chris Snow

Medium, Jan 4, 2023

Lies and corruption: Sailor of the Black Sea flagship “Moskva” Alexander gives new revealing insights that contributed to seal the Moskva’s fate

More than six months have passed since the inglorious death of the flagship of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. Putin could not admit the fact of the loss of “Moscow” on the Kremlin TV, so the multi-layered lies hid any reliable information in its abyss. Lies accompanied the cruiser from the very beginning to the very end.

The Russian Volunteer Corps posted a unique interview with a survivor of the Moskva flagship Cruiser.

This interview also mentions pre-war events as well as the exact time of its sinking. This is an eyewitness report of one of the former crew members who is now fighting for Ukraine.

Purported image of Moskva on her final day afloat. Analysts suggest that the image is consistent with the vessel’s configuration and Ukrainian accounts of the strike (Unknown source)

The sailor’s name is Alexander, and he got on the cruiser Moskva long before Putin’s Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Here is the translation of the report in which he gives extensive background information about the incident from April last year. (Personal comments in brackets)

The story begins in June 2021, the Moskva sailed to the Mediterranean Sea, where it participated in the tracking of the British aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth, during which we had a fire in a barbette with AAU (automatic artillery installation) AK-630 ammunition, back then the automatic fire extinguishing system worked, and the explosion was avoided.

There were a lot of problems. For example, we had the main complex of the flag radar, which should illuminate the airspace at up to 480 km, but in fact, every 30 minutes, there was an overheating with its subsequent shutdown. In addition to the flag radar, the cruiser had Nadir radar complexes located in the bow and stern, as well as Vympel complexes on the starboard and port sides.

Absolutely all radar complexes of the ship overheated due to improper maintenance and control.

The same "flag" saw nothing but highway civilian aircraft as it couldn’t even give out a non-existent target. The rest of the radars cover a 15 to 45 km radius. For all these reasons, until the sinking of the ship, it was necessary to monitor the airspace with the help of civilian programs on a laptop.

Subsequent deployments out to sea ended almost identically - failure after failure. In the fall of 2021, we went to the sea to monitor NATO and Ukrainian ships participating in exercises in the Black Sea.

Analysis: Chain of Negligence caused the loss of the Moskva cruiser - Naval News

The shock of the sinking of the Slava-class cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, continues. In…

www.navalnews.com

The ship's gunners were tasked with hitting an artificial surface target with an AK-130 and AK-630 AU artillery piece. By the way, the first ended with a blackout on the entire ship during the rotation of the gun, and the second - ended in an unsuccessful firing and desynchronization of two AK-630 complexes (they were supposed to work in pairs but decided to turn in opposite directions of each other).

In addition to the terrible technical condition, there were simply inhumane conditions for the life of the crew on board.

During a twenty-day deployment in the Mediterranean, "one and a half" liter of fresh water were given out per person for three days. In addition, there were meals of poor quality. Fresh water was supplied twice a day - in the morning and before the break. Even then, only for 20 minutes. For a crew of more than 400 people.

Since the water reserves in the tanks are limited, and the desalination machines for seawater simply did not work (they worked only in documents and reports).

The food on bord was generally tolerable if you didn’t notice the cockroaches in the rice and compote. There was an incident on the tenth day after the ship left for the Mediterranean sea, namely the disappearance of mugs from the dining room, because of which the deputy commander of the ship for educational work, Captain 2nd rank Vakula ordered to remove all mugs from the dining room before arriving at the base.

An extensive report on with a lot of facts and figures about the ship and the Russian Navy in general

Since I touched on the topic of army idiocy, it is worth talking about constant training, anxiety, and performing tasks that are in no way connected with reality.

All the drills done on the cruiser were fiction. Everything was done to ensure that photo reports on the "work" done lay on the table of Kuprin (the commander of the ship) and to those higher up.

Photo reports, photo reports, and once again photo reports... this is the essence of the entire army of the Russian Federation, it does not matter whether you are able to professionally perform your work or not, here only a beautiful picture and what your’re painting in the journal of combat training is important.

For example, the Osa-MA air defense system. These systems have been repaired since 2014, and according to the documents, they were fully operational according to the reports provided.

One of the few manifestations of a sober assessment of the situation was the recognition by the command of the “Moscow” of the non-combat capability of the PU Sam system S-300F “Fort”, because, as it turned out, there are no missiles for it in the Black Sea Fleet.

M-4 Osa-M

Introduction The Osa-M is a naval SAM system of Soviet origin. It was developed to act as a point defense system…

weaponsystems.net

The main missile system is PU PRKR P-1000 "Vulcan" in the amount of 16 pieces. It was almost impossible to launch due to an insufficient supply of electricity and compressed air. I am generally silent about anti-submarine weapons.

The war started while we were out at sea on a routine patrol mission

Or at least it was supposed to be a routine mission to patrol the oil rigs near Snake Island, but when we woke up on the morning of February 24, we were informed of the beginning of a "special military operation." Many that morning could not even imagine that Russia would start a real war.

How lies destroy armies

My thoughts were only about what is happening now in Ukraine - the country in which my relatives live.

At that time, we did not know about the missile strikes and thought that everything was happening within the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine.

After some time, the Moskva approached the island of Zmeiny, and the ZKK on the VPR, Captain 2nd rank Vakula, picked up a radio and began his shameful speech, in response to which he was sent along with the ship by a Ukrainian border guard.

Au AK-130 barely worked on the island, and on its last legs, the ship went to the raid along the patrol line.

The famous clip

After the events near the island of Zmeiny, "Moskva" came to the port of Sevastopol back to its base. Afterward, we were interviewed by "plainclothes men," and non-disclosure documents were signed by some crew members.

The crew was then released on leave, but the lion’s share remained, as some of the sailors were sent on deployment to the 810th Marine Brigade, where they were assembled in January for exercises as part of infantry rifle units. Soon, those who were there on deployment were sent to the Kherson direction.

Corruption has been rampant ever since in the Russian army and the Navy which is normally among the absolute elite of every army seems to be heavily compromised

In April 2022, the cruiser was sent to Odessa to patrol the water area. At least this information was given to the crew.

We had lunch on the ship. It was 14:15 Moscow time on the clock. Half of the personnel rested in their crew cabins, and the other was assigned to watches and outfits. There was no alarm or targets on the radar.

At one point, two loud explosions sounded, and the lights went out abruptly. Currently, I was in the cockpit and resting after the watch. Panic began, there were no commands or alarm on the broadcast for ten minutes, and then the senior assistant commander, Captain 2nd rank Gudkov, announced the gathering of personnel in the ship’s dining room, the appointment of emergency groups and the beginning of the struggle for survivability. There was darkness and smoke all around. As it turned out, the first missile hit between the galley and the dining room, and the second between the post of the Osa-MA air defense system and the torpedo tube, by the way, it is still not clear why it did not detonate.

Starpom was informed that it was impossible to collect the wounded in the dining room because the blast wave had cut through the corridors and doors, and a hole appeared on the side of the ship. It is not entirely clear what exactly the commander of the ship was doing at this time, but the only one who made decisions and did something at that moment was the Starpom. (a naval rank in Russia)

Then the next order came - contract soldiers and midshipmen were to drop life rafts from the upper tiers, and officers and remaining midshipmen were to evacuate conscripts to the stern of the ship to transfer them to the frigate "Admiral Essen", on board of which was the commander of the 30th division of surface ships, Captain 1st rank Tronev.

In total, the struggle for survivability lasted until 20:00 and stopped when the fire spread to the commander’s bridge and Vulcan missile systems. By that time, the division commander was on board the cruiser and ordered to end the struggle for survivability and evacuation.

During the evacuation, the body of senior midshipman Vakhrushev was found in a helicopter hangar. He took conscripts out of the holds until the last moment, but he himself did not have enough time to escape. Vakhrushev was according to the Kremlin, the only one who died because of the "fire."

In fact, at least 30 crew members died (according to tame estimates), these were mainly conscripts who were in the holds, the entire galley outfit along with the deputy of my unit and, possibly, those who could not get out of their posts. (Link to conscripts and training here for those interested in learning more about this topic)

Institute for the Study of War

Kateryna Stepanenko, March 5, 2022 Frederick W. Kagan, Brian Babcock-Lumish The early announcement of the 2022 spring…

www.understandingwar.org

After these events I have just described, we were told the official version: There was a fire. That’s it.

I can’t fathom how cynical these people are to stand there and blatantly lie to those who have seen everything with their own eyes. Who lost their friends and acquaintances.

Again, everyone signed a non-disclosure agreement, and maybe you are wondering what the former crew members of the cruiser "Moskva" think about this? They don’t think anything at all about it!

A guy from my unit in the first days after the sinking of the cruiser told relatives and friends in social networks about what had happened, and, as a result, he withdrew from wherever he could.

He then had to report to special security forces with IDs (korochka), after which he simply stopped communicating and disappeared from the social network.

To my great regret, this tragedy did not free the guys from the morass of propaganda, but on the contrary. The topic of the death of the "Moskva" has become almost taboo among the former crew.

Sailors' Families Seek Answers about Russian Ship Sinking

It took the Russian military over a week to acknowledge that one serviceman died and two dozen others were missing…

www.military.com

As the cruiser’s last exit was not a combat exit, but only a patrol one, and therefore, none of those on the Moskva received any bonuses or compensations.

The Kremlin does not recognize the dead sailors for two reasons:

• The first is legal - in the so-called SVO, according to the regime, conscripts do not participate.
• The second is pure cynicism: the death of the flagship at the hands of Ukraine, which does not have a fleet, was a huge blow to the image of the dictator and his "invincible" troops inside the Russian Federation.

Let the enemy know that there are many of us, and we have long been in his rear.

I really hope that I was able to somehow help in the fight against the lies pouring into the ears of Russians and, despite the fear of being caught or killed, we will fight for the freedom of Ukraine and the liberation of Russia! (Alexander, former member of the Russian navy)

Summary and Conclusion:

I consider this a most fascinating bit of information and very revealing. A few things really stood out in my opinion:

1. The lack of training, maintenance, and combat readiness. "Photo reports - the essence of the entire army of the Russian Federation. "
2. How they lie and cheat their own kind. Just to avoid paying reparations to relatives by calling this “a non-combat exit”
3. "The huge blow to the image of the dictator "

It is reasonable to presume that the entire Russian navy is as rotten to the core as the rest of the Russian army eaten up from the inside by corruption and “Vranjo” a culture of lies and deception from the lowest to the highest ranks.

I cannot help but wonder, perhaps dangerously, how good any of their strategic rocket forces are. There have been credible reports that none of the ICBM silos are loaded as they fill with water. Also, there have been reports of batches by soldiers who are part of the missile forces surfacing in Ukraine.

It is definitely most revealing that most of their training drills are purely fabricated for propaganda purposes. That should give you a hint on why an army this big and with so much on paper advantage can lose in such a decisive way against its much smaller neighbor.

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Post scriptum

A suicide note was found on a dead soldier in Luhansk, making it apparent how awful the Russian forces must treat their own. It doesn’t fit with the rest of the article, so I attached it here, but beware it is gruesome and bleak.

"Goodbye. darling, in the time that I’m here, I have seen hell. There were not so many deaths in Chechnya or even Afghanistan. Seas of human meat. But that’s not why I depart. We here, Russian people, are nobody, and Chechens rule. They drink, they are unhinged, and they rape, they give beatings to everyone and noone is going to do anything about it. Kitty, they took all the money you sent, and they did a thing to me. This is to let you know that I resisted. Remember that you and I owe nothing to anyone. This is the only way out. Love, see you after death”

Additional sources

Relative Dominance: Russian Naval Power in the Black Sea - War on the Rocks

Russia is struggling in its war on Ukraine. Kyiv's military advances have allowed the country to seize back more of its…

warontherocks.com

Strength of the Russian navy

Russian Navy (2023)

The modern Russian Navy keeps a solid focus on its coastline and underwater activities with a noticeable commitment to…

www.wdmmw.org