Um notícia de janeiro, que tinha me passado despercebida...
Air strikes in Iran: The military facility in Isfahan was hit by a drone attack. A refinery was also set ablaze
Iran has been providing Shaheed 136 and Shaheed 131 drones to Russia. These drone deliveries were heavily condemned by the West. Iran was threatened with sanctions and other consequences to encourage the regime to discontinue these deliveries.
The Iranian regime has recently cracked down very hard on its own people. After the protests against the regime going on since mid-September, have since then taken a turn towards a revolution. The people of Iran do not just want change from this government. They want the regime gone entirely.
Another horrible mistake that the Iranian Mullah regime made was providing Russia with arms or rather terrror weapons in its war against Ukraine. Now, a drone factory was hit. However, it is unclear who is behind these attacks.
“An explosion has occurred in one of the military centers affiliated to the Ministry of Defense,” the deputy head of security for Isfahan governorate Mohammad Reza Jan-Nesari told the semi-official Fars News Agency.
The West has often criticized this decision and warned Iran of possible consequences of such actions. The regime in Teheran obviously didn’t heed these warnings. However, who is behind these attacks is still shrouded in mystery.
What we do know is that among other strikes there is also a huge fire reported in Azarsharhr in an East Azerbaijan province, the attack seem to be well coordinated and have been targeted against military and industrial facilities all across the country. The strikes are still ongoing as new strikes are reported against an IRGC base in Mahabad.
Iranian sources reported that explosions were heard in Hamedan and Karaj
The Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs will evacuate their embassy staff and members of their families from Iran today. We must keep in mind that the Israeli Airforce has been granted access to an airfield on the territory of Aszerbaidschan in close proximity to the Iranian border. US officials have been rather unhappy with this arrangement.
U.S. intelligence officials are worried that Israel’s military involvement in Azerbaijan would make it more difficult for the U.S. to reduce Israeli-Iranian tensions. Apparently now, military planners must prepare for a war scenario that would also involve the Caucasus.
“We’re watching what Iran does closely,” said a U.S. intelligence officer involved in assessing the consequences of a potential Israeli strike on Iran. “But we’re now watching what Israel is doing in Azerbaijan. And we’re not happy about it.”
Note: From here on out, this is an opinion piece.
The current regime has lost its legimitacy with its people, while many Western media outlets wish to present the case as “civil unrest” or “protests” that couldn’t be further from the truth.
The Iranian regime has started to kill people, torture them, and imprison them in mass.
The Iranian people do not want reforms from the regime, they want the regime gone, they want to take care of their own affairs without some morality police telling them how to live or a security guard eavesdropping on their conversations. These aren’t protests. This is a revolution made by the people and for the people to remove the Mullah dictatorship from power.
Let’s try to answer the question: Who could be behind these attacks?
“Freedom is never given voluntarily by the oppressor; it must be demanded by the oppressed.” You must demand it, for it will not be given freely. Dr. Martin Luther King
- Mossad Special Operation
My first guess would be that the Mossad smuggled in a dozen or so foreign-made drones to one of the insurgent or anti-regime groups and provided coordinates of some lightly-defended, highly-flammable targets.
Iran has been executing peaceful civilians for a while now, so the now still peaceful protestors may soon join the ranks of the more violent arm of the revolution as they may be ready to move to a less peaceful approach.
That explanation is possible, although as widespread and coordinated as it seems at this moment, I’d guess there is some level of professionalism that goes beyond the capacity of local insurgent groups.
I really doubt this is a Mossad led insurgency on the ground type of operation. Even though it would probably be the best-case scenario, if the attack was executed by anti-regime groups rather than a foreign power.
Likelihood: 3/10
Option 2: The USA did it
Israel has a lot of agents and cells in Iran.This was totally something they could set in motion. The way the Mossad works in Iran is absolutely master class. I highly doubt this was the US, though. The US does not like doing anything kinetic in Iran these days.
Except that the computer virus that the US and Israel sent towards Iran, which was pretty gangster. Autocratic regimes all around the world love to blame everything on the US. Don’t be shocked as the accusations are going to come in pretty soon.
Likelihood: 1/10
Option 3: China
Maybe it was Xi. But if you thought the US and Russia both had their problems with the Middle East, I am deeply skeptical of what would the Chinese COIN operations look like. That’s assuming the Chinese military is even bothered by trying to understand the local culture/religion.
Their best option would be to try to establish mass surveillance to run facial recognition and whack the folks who seem to be doing suspicious stuff or disappear off of the grid for hours/days at a time. But first they need to get the cameras up and running when the insurgents are probably going to suspect something is up with the Chinese trying to install cameras in every house, apartment elevators/hallways, alleyway, streetlight and so on.
Likelihood: 2/10
Option 4: Ukraine is sending their regards with the kind support of the Israeli Air Force and Western intelligence
The CIA director is in Israel right now. The US did say they would “work to distrust the supply of weapons and drones to Russia”. Ukraine has warned Iran as well about the continuation of this close relationship. Israel was less than happy about Iranian drone deliveries as well. Iran is using Russia as a proxy for their own fight against Israel. Russia really fell very low by becoming a proxy of Iran in this geo-political chess game. Also, recent remarks about giving nukes to Iran by Russia’s propaganda machine could have triggered a reaction by Israel.
It could also be a false flag operation by the revolutionary guard to distract us all from the revolution. Potentially, that could backfire, though. What is for sure: The Israelis are on edge and geared up because a Palestinian just killed 7 people outside of a synagogue in east Jerusalem.
So, I think it’s more likely the CIA is in Tel Aviv to try and keep the Israelis calm than they are trying to organize covert strikes rather than to discuss secret strikes against Iran.
Still, this scenario has some credibility to it. This might be a message by the West delivered by a close ally Israel. The message is going out to Teheran but also towards Moscow: Stop these drone attacks and deliveries. Otherwise, none of these factories will be left standing. The scenario of an Israeli drone strike seems to be the most credible and most likely explanation here.
Likelihood: 8/10
Summary and Conclusion:
Probably all of that is another sad comedy of incompetence with some warcrimes sprinkled in. The Iranian regime has made many mistakes lately. Sending these drones to Russia was one of them. Acting with such brutality and violence against the Iranian people is another one. Iran is just one of many geo-political players who have underestimated the strength of the West and the strength of people unwilling to bow to tyranny.
I have ultimately no answer for you who is behind these strikes. Time will tell, but feel free to share your opinion with me in the comments as to what you think? Who is behind these strikes?
No nation deserves freedom or can long retain it, which does not win it for itself. Revolutions must be made by the people and for the people. Giuseppe Mazzini
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30+ year old History Professor and educator. MA in Business Ethics and Modern European History. History has much to teach, but it doesn't find enough students
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