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Mostrando postagens com marcador Economist. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador Economist. Mostrar todas as postagens

terça-feira, 5 de novembro de 2019

Quando a New Yorker ataca a Economist: um debate sobre o liberalismo, velho e atual

Liberalism According to The Economist

Founded in 1843 to spread the doctrine of laissez-faire, the magazine has wielded influence like no other. But at what cost?

The magazine was founded in 1843, to disseminate the doctrine of laissez-faire.
Illustration by Mark Long
“Liberalism made the modern world, but the modern world is turning against it,” an article in The Economist lamented last year, on the occasion of the magazine’s hundred-and-seventy-fifth anniversary. “Europe and America are in the throes of a popular rebellion against liberal élites, who are seen as self-serving and unable, or unwilling, to solve the problems of ordinary people,” even as authoritarian China is poised to become the world’s largest economy. For a publication that was founded “to campaign for liberalism,” all of this was “profoundly worrying.”
The crisis in liberalism has become received wisdom across the political spectrum. Barack Obama included Patrick Deneen’s “Why Liberalism Failed” (2018) in his annual list of recommended books; meanwhile, Vladimir Putin has gleefully pronounced liberalism “obsolete.” The right accuses liberals of promoting selfish individualism and crass materialism at the expense of social cohesion and cultural identity. Centrists claim that liberals’ obsession with political correctness and minority rights drove white voters to Donald Trump. For the newly resurgent left, the rise of demagoguery looks like payback for the small-government doctrines of technocratic neoliberalism—tax cuts, privatization, financial deregulation, antilabor legislation, cuts in Social Security—which have shaped policy in Europe and America since the eighties.
Attacks on liberalism are nothing new. In 1843, the year The Economist was founded, Karl Marx wrote, “The glorious robes of liberalism have fallen away, and the most repulsive despotism stands revealed for all the world to see.” Nietzsche dismissed John Stuart Mill, the author of the canonical liberal text “On Liberty” (1859), as a “numbskull.” In colonized Asia and Africa, critics—such as R. C. Dutt, in India, and Sun Yat-sen, in China—pointed out liberalism’s complicity in Western imperialism. Muhammad Abduh, the Grand Mufti of Egypt, wrote, “Your liberalness, we see plainly, is only for yourselves.” (Mill, indeed, had justified colonialism on the ground that it would lead to the improvement of “barbarians.”) From a different vantage, critiques came from aspiring imperialist powers, such as Germany (Carl Schmitt), Italy (Gaetano Salvemini), and Japan (Tokutomi Sohō). Since then, Anglo-American thinkers such as Reinhold Niebuhr and John Gray have pointed out liberalism’s troubled relationship with democracy and human rights, and its overly complacent belief in reason and progress.
Yet the sheer variety of criticisms of liberalism makes it hard to know right away what precisely is being criticized. Liberalism’s ancestry has been traced back to John Locke’s writings on individual reason, Adam Smith’s economic theory, and the empiricism of David Hume, but today the doctrine seems to contain potentially contradictory elements. The philosophy of individual liberty connotes both a desire for freedom from state regulation in economic matters (a stance close to libertarianism) and a demand for the state to insure a minimal degree of social and economic justice—the liberalism of the New Deal and of European welfare states. The iconic figures of liberalism themselves moved between these commitments. Mill, even while supporting British imperialism in India and Ireland, called himself a socialist and outlined the aim of achieving “common ownership in the raw materials of the globe.” The Great Depression forced John Dewey to conclude that “the socialized economy is the means of free individual development.” Isaiah Berlin championed the noninterference of the state in 1958, in his celebrated lecture “Two Concepts of Liberty”; but eleven years later he had come to believe that such “negative liberty” armed “the able and ruthless against the less gifted and less fortunate.”
Because of this conceptual morass, liberalism has, to an unusual degree, been defined by what it wasn’t. For French liberals in the early nineteenth century, it was a defense against the excesses of Jacobins and ultra-monarchists. For the free-trading Manchester Liberals of the mid-nineteenth century, it was anticolonial. Liberals in Germany, on the other hand, were allied with both nationalists and imperialists. In the twentieth century, liberalism became a banner under which to march against Communism and Fascism. Recent scholars have argued that it wasn’t until liberalism became the default “other” of totalitarian ideologies that inner coherence and intellectual lineage were retrospectively found for it. Locke, a devout Christian, was not regarded as a philosopher of liberalism until the early twentieth century. Nor was the word “liberal” part of U.S. political discourse before that time. When Lionel Trilling claimed, in 1950, that liberalism in America was “not only the dominant but even the sole intellectual tradition,” the term was becoming a catchall signifier of moral prestige, variously synonymous with “democracy,” “capitalism,” and even simply “the West.” Since 9/11, it has seemed more than ever to define the West against such illiberal enemies as Islamofascism and Chinese authoritarianism.
The Economist proudly enlists itself in this combative Anglo-American tradition, having vigorously claimed to be advancing the liberal cause since its founding. In “Liberalism at Large” (Verso), Alexander Zevin, a historian at the City University of New York, takes it at its word, telling the story not only of the magazine itself but also of its impact on world affairs. Using The Economist as a proxy for liberalism enables Zevin to sidestep much conceptual muddle about the doctrine. His examination of The Economist’s pronouncements and of the policies of those who heeded them yields, in effect, a study of several liberalisms as they have been widely practiced in the course of a hundred and seventy-five years. The magazine emerges as a force that—thanks to the military, cultural, and economic power of Britain and, later, America—can truly be said to have made the modern world, if not in the way that many liberals would suppose.
In terms of its influence, The Economist has long been a publication like no other. Within a decade of its founding, Marx was describing it as the organ of “the aristocracy of finance.” In 1895, Woodrow Wilson called it “a sort of financial providence for businessmen on both sides of the Atlantic.” (Wilson, an Anglophile, wooed his evidently forbearing wife with quotations from Walter Bagehot, the most famous of The Economist’s editors.) For years, the magazine was proud of the exclusivity of its readership. Now it has nearly a million subscribers in North America (more than in Britain), and seven hundred thousand in the rest of the world. Since the early nineties, it has served, alongside the Financial Times, as the suavely British-accented voice of globalization (scoring over the too stridently partisan and American Wall Street Journal).
According to its own statistics, its readers are the richest and the most prodigal consumers of all periodical readers; more than twenty per cent once claimed ownership of “a cellar of vintage wines.” Like Aston Martin, Burberry, and other global British brands, The Economist invokes the glamour of élitism. “It’s lonely at the top,” one of its ads says, “but at least there’s something to read.” Its articles, almost all of which are unsigned, were until recently edited from an office in St. James’s, London, a redoubt of posh Englishness, with private clubs, cigar merchants, hatters, and tailors. The present editor, Zanny Minton Beddoes, is the first woman ever to hold the position. The staff, predominantly white, is recruited overwhelmingly from the universities of Oxford and Cambridge, and a disproportionate number of the most important editors have come from just one Oxford college, Magdalen. “Lack of diversity is a benefit,” Gideon Rachman, a former editor who is now a columnist at the Financial Times, told Zevin, explaining that it produces an assertive and coherent point of view. Indeed, contributors are not shy about adding prescription (how to fix India’s power problems, say) to their reporting and analysis. The pieces are mostly short, but the coverage is comprehensive; a single issue might cover the insurgency in south Thailand, public transportation in Jakarta, commodities prices, and recent advances in artificial intelligence. This air of crisp editorial omniscience insures that the magazine is as likely to be found on an aspirant think tanker’s iPad in New Delhi as it is on Bill Gates’s private jet.
Zevin, having evidently mastered the magazine’s archives, commands a deep knowledge of its inner workings and its historical connection to political and economic power. He shows how its editors and contributors pioneered the revolving doors that link media, politics, business, and finance—alumni have gone on to such jobs as deputy governor of the Bank of England, Prime Minister of Britain, and President of Italy—and how such people have defined, at crucial moments in history, liberalism’s ever-changing relationship with capitalism, imperialism, democracy, and war.
A capsule version of this thesis can be found in the career of James Wilson, The Economist’s founder and first editor. Wilson, who was born in Scotland and became the owner of a struggling hatmaking business, intended his journal to develop and disseminate the doctrine of laissez-faire—“nothing but pure principles,” as he put it. He was particularly vociferous in his opposition to the Corn Laws, agricultural tariffs that were unpopular with merchants. The Corn Laws were repealed in 1846, three years after the magazine first appeared, and Wilson began to proselytize more energetically for free trade and the increasingly prominent discipline of economics. He became a Member of Parliament and held several positions in the British government. He also founded a pan-Asian bank, now known as Standard Chartered, which expanded fast on the back of the opium trade with China. In 1859, Wilson became Chancellor of the Indian Exchequer. He died in India the following year, trying to reconfigure the country’s financial system.
During his short career as a journalist-cum-crusader, Wilson briskly clarified what he meant by “pure principles.” He opposed a ban on trading with slaveholding countries on the ground that it would punish slaves as well as British consumers. In the eighteen-forties, when Ireland was struck with famine, which was largely caused by free trade—the British insisted on exporting Irish food, despite catastrophic crop failure—Wilson called for a homeopathic remedy: more free trade. With Irish intransigence becoming a nuisance, he advised the British to respond with “powerful, resolute, but just repression.” Wilson was equally stern with those suffering from rising inequality at home. In his view, the government was wrong to oblige rail companies to provide better service for working-class passengers, who were hitherto forced to travel in exposed freight cars: “Where the most profit is made, the public is best served. Limit the profit, and you limit the exertion of ingenuity in a thousand ways.” A factory bill limiting women to a twelve-hour workday was deemed equally pernicious. As for public schooling, common people should be “left to provide education as they provide food for themselves.”
The Economist held that, “if the pursuit of self-interest, left equally free for all, does not lead to the general welfare, no system of government can accomplish it.” But this opposition to government intervention, it turned out, did not extend to situations in which liberalism appeared to be under threat. In the eighteen-fifties, Zevin writes, the Crimean War, the Second Opium War, and the Indian Mutiny “rocked British liberalism at home and recast it abroad.” Proponents of free trade had consistently claimed that it was the best hedge against war. However, Britain’s expansion across Asia, in which free trade was often imposed at gunpoint, predictably provoked conflict, and, for The Economist, wherever Britain’s “imperial interests were at stake, war could become an absolute necessity, to be embraced.”
This betrayal of principle alienated, among others, the businessman and statesman Richard Cobden, who had helped Wilson found The Economist, and had shared his early view of free trade as a guarantee of world peace. India, for Cobden, was a “country we do not know how to govern,” and Indians were justified in rebelling against an inept despotism. For Wilson’s Economist, however, Indians, like the Irish, exemplified the “native character . . . half child, half savage, actuated by sudden and unreasoning impulses.” Besides, “commerce with India would be at an end were English power withdrawn.” The next editor, Wilson’s son-in-law Walter Bagehot, broadened the magazine’s appeal and gave its opinions a more seductive intellectual sheen. But the editorial line remained much the same. During the American Civil War, Bagehot convinced himself that the Confederacy, with which he was personally sympathetic, could not be defeated by the Northern states, whose “other contests have been against naked Indians and degenerate and undisciplined Mexicans.” He also believed that abolition would best be achieved by a Southern victory. More important, trade with the Southern states would be freer.
Discussing these and other editorial misjudgments, Zevin refrains from virtue signalling and applying anachronistic standards. He seems genuinely fascinated by how the liberal vision of individual freedom and international harmony was, as Niebuhr once put it, “transmuted into the sorry realities of an international capitalism which recognized neither moral scruples nor political restraints in expanding its power over the world.” Part of the explanation lies in Zevin’s sociology of élites, in which liberalism emerges as a self-legitimating ideology of a rich, powerful, and networked ruling class. Private ambition played a significant role. Bagehot stood for Parliament four times as a member of Britain’s Liberal Party. Born into a family of bankers, he saw himself and his magazine as offering counsel to a new generation of buccaneering British financiers. His tenure coincided with the age of capital, when British finance transformed the world economy, expanding food cultivation in North America and Eastern Europe, cotton manufacturing in India, mineral extraction in Australia, and rail networks everywhere. According to Zevin, “it fell to Bagehot’s Economist to map this new world, tracing the theoretical insights of political economy to the people and places men of business were sending their money.”
The pressures of capitalist expansion abroad and rising disaffection at home further transformed liberal doctrine. Zevin fruitfully describes how liberals coped with the growing demand for democracy. Bagehot had read and admired John Stuart Mill as a young man, but, as an editor, he agreed with him on little more than the need to civilize the natives of Ireland and India. To Bagehot, Mill’s idea of broadly extending suffrage to women seemed absurd. Nor could he support Mill’s proposal to enfranchise the laboring classes in Britain, reminding his readers that “a political combination of the lower classes, as such and for their own objects, is an evil of the first magnitude.” Not surprisingly, The Economist commended Mussolini (a devoted reader) for sorting out an Italian economy destabilized by labor unrest.
Nonetheless, by the early twentieth century, the magazine was groping toward an awareness that, in an advanced industrial society, classical liberalism had to be moderated, and that progressive taxation and basic social-welfare systems were the price of defusing rising discontent. The magazine has since presented this volte-face as evidence of its pragmatic liberalism. Zevin reveals it as a grudging response to democratic pressures from below. Moreover, there were clear limits to The Economist’s newfound compassionate liberalism. As late as 1914, one editor, Francis Hirst, was still denouncing “the shrieking, struggling, fighting viragoes” who had demanded the right to vote despite having no capacity for reason. His comparison of suffragettes to Russian and Turkish marauders—pillaging “solemn vows, ties of love and affection, honor, romance”—helped drive his own wife to suffragism.
As more people acquired the right to vote, and as market mechanisms failed, empowering autocrats and accelerating international conflicts, The Economistwas finally forced to compromise the purity of its principles. In 1943, in a book celebrating the centenary of the magazine, its editor at the time acknowledged that larger electorates saw “inequality and insecurity” as a serious problem. The Economist disagreed with the socialists “not on their objective, but only on the methods they proposed for attaining it.” Such a stance mirrored a widespread acceptance on both sides of the Atlantic that governments should do more to protect citizens from an inherently volatile economic system. Since the nineteen-sixties, however, The Economist has steadily reinstated its foundational ideals.
In the process, it missed an opportunity to reconfigure for the postcolonial age a liberalism forged during the high noon of imperialism. The emergence of new, independent nation-states across Asia and Africa from the late forties onward was arguably the most important development of the twentieth century. Liberalism faced a new test among a great majority of the world’s population: Could newly sovereign peoples, largely poor and illiterate, embrace free markets and minimize government right away? Would such a policy succeed without prior government-led investment in public health, education, and local manufacturing? Even a Cold War liberal like Raymond Aron questioned the efficacy of Western-style liberalism in Asia and Africa. But The Economistseemed content to see postcolonial nations and their complex challenges through the Cold War’s simple dichotomy of the “free” and the “unfree” world. In any case, by the seventies, the magazine’s editors were increasingly taking their inspiration from economics departments and think tanks, where the pure neoliberal principles of Milton Friedman and Friedrich Hayek were dominant, rather than from such liberal theorists of justice as John Rawls, Ronald Dworkin, and Amartya Sen.
In the nineteen-eighties, The Economist’s cheerleading for Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan’s embrace of neoliberalism led to a dramatic rise in its American circulation. (Reagan personally thanked the magazine’s editor for his support over dinner.) Dean Acheson famously remarked that “Great Britain has lost an empire and has not yet found a role.” No such status anxiety inhibited The Economist as it crossed the Atlantic to make new friends and influence more people. After the Second World War, when the U.S. emerged as the new global hegemon, the magazine—despite some initial resentment, commonplace among British élites at the time—quickly adjusted itself to the Pax Americana. It came to revere the U.S. as, in the words of one editor, “a giant elder brother, a source of reassurance, trust and stability for weaker members of the family, and nervousness and uncertainty for any budding bullies.”
This meant stalwart support for American interventions abroad, starting with Vietnam, where, as the historian and former staff writer Hugh Brogan tells Zevin, the magazine’s coverage was “pure CIA propaganda.” It euphemized the war’s horrors, characterizing the My Lai massacre as “minor variations on the general theme of the fallibility of men at war.” By 1972, following the saturation bombing of North Vietnam, the magazine was complaining that Henry Kissinger was too soft on the North Vietnamese. A policy of fealty to the giant elder brother also made some campaigners for liberalism a bit too prone to skulduggery. Zevin relates colorful stories about the magazine’s overzealous Cold Warriors, such as Robert Moss, who diligently prepared international opinion for the military coup in Chile in 1973, which brought down its democratically elected leader, Salvador Allende. In Moss’s view, “Chile’s generals reached the conclusion that democracy does not have the right to commit suicide.” (The generals expressed their gratitude by buying and distributing nearly ten thousand copies of the magazine.) Zevin relates that, when news of Allende’s death reached Moss in London, he danced down the corridors of The Economist’s office, chanting, “My enemy is dead!” Moss went on to edit a magazine owned by Anastasio Somoza, Nicaragua’s U.S.-backed dictator.
After the fall of Communist regimes in 1989, The Economist embraced a fervently activist role in Russia and Eastern Europe, armed with the mantras of privatization and deregulation. In its pages, the economist Jeffrey Sachs, who was then working to reshape “transition economies” in the region, coined the term “shock therapy” for these policies. The socioeconomic reëngineering was brutal—salaries and public services collapsed—and, in 1998, Russia’s financial system imploded. Only a few months before this disaster, The Economist was still hailing the “dynamism, guile and vision” of Anatoly Chubais, the politician whose sale of Russia’s assets to oligarchs had by then made him the most despised public figure in the country. In 2009, a study in The Lancet estimated that “shock therapy” had led to the premature deaths of millions of Russians, mostly men of employment age. The Economist was unrepentant, insisting that “Russia’s tragedy was that reform came too slowly, not too fast.”
“Who can trust Trump’s America?” a recent Economist cover story asked, forlornly surveying the ruins of the Pax Americana. The political earthquakes of the past few years perhaps make it lonelier at the top for the magazine than at any other time in its history; the articles celebrating last year’s anniversary were presented as a manifesto for “renewing liberalism.” Ten years before, when the financial crisis erupted, the magazine overcame its primal distrust of government intervention to endorse bank bailouts, arguing that it was “a time to put dogma and politics to one side.” It also continued to defend neoliberal policies, on the basis that “the people running the system, not the system itself, are to blame.” Now, finally chastened, if not by the financial crisis then by its grisly political upshot, the magazine has conceded that “liberals have become too comfortable with power” and “wrapped up in preserving the status quo.” Its anniversary manifesto touted a “liberalism for the people.” But soul-searching has its limits: the manifesto admiringly quoted Milton Friedman on the need to be “radical,” resurrected John McCain’s fantasy of a “league of democracies” as an alternative to the United Nations, and scoffed at millennials who don’t wish to fight for the old “liberal world order.” A more recent cover story warns “American bosses” about Elizabeth Warren’s plans to tackle inequality, and revives Friedmanite verities about how “creative destruction” and “the dynamic power of markets” can best help “middle-class Americans.”
The Economist is no doubt sincere about wanting to be more “woke.” It seeks more female readers, according to a 2016 briefing for advertisers, and is anxious to dispel the idea that the magazine is “an arrogant, dull handbook for outdated men.” Whereas, in 2002, it rushed to defend Bjørn Lomborg, the global-warming skeptic, this fall it dedicated an entire issue to the climate emergency. Still, The Economist may find it more difficult than much of the old Anglo-American establishment to check its privilege. Its limitations arise not only from a defiantly nondiverse and parochial intellectual culture but also from a house style too prone to contrarianism. A review, in 2014, of a book titled “The Half Has Never Been Told: Slavery and the Making of American Capitalism” accused its author of not being “objective,” complaining that “almost all the blacks in his book are victims, almost all the whites villains.” Following an outcry, the magazine retracted the review. However, a recent assessment of Brazil’s privatization drive—“Jair Bolsonaro is a dangerous populist, with some good ideas”—suggests that it is hard to tone down what the journalist James Fallows has described as the magazine’s “Oxford Union argumentative style,” a stance too “cocksure of its rightness and superiority.”
This insouciance, bred by the certainty of having made the modern world, cannot seem anything but incongruous in the rancorously polarized societies of Britain and the United States. The two blond demagogues currently leading the world’s two oldest “liberal” democracies bespeak a ruling class that—through a global financial crisis, rising inequality, and ill-conceived military interventions in large parts of the Middle East, Central Asia, and North Africa—has squandered its authority and legitimacy. The reputation, central to much Cold War liberalism, of England as a model liberal society also lies shattered amid the calamity of Brexit.
For the young, in particular, old frameworks of liberalism seem to be a constraint on the possibilities of politics. It should be remembered, however, that these new critics of liberalism seek not to destroy but to fulfill its promise of individual freedom. They are looking, just as John Dewey was, for suitable modes of politics and economy in a world radically altered by capitalism and technology—a liberalism for the people, not just for their networked rulers. In that sense, it is not so much liberalism that is in crisis as its self-styled campaigners, who are seen, not unreasonably, as complicit in unmaking the modern world. ♦

Published in the print edition of the November 11, 2019, issue, with the headline “The Influencer.”

quarta-feira, 4 de setembro de 2019

Até a Economist falha na sua tradicional racionalidade: pretende "corrigir" o capitalismo

O que deu nos editores da Economist? Foram afetados por alguma disfunção mental temporária? 
Ou estão sendo influenciados por economistas utópicos?
Trata-se, provavelmente, da primeira vez em mais de 160 anos que a Economist sai da sua proverbial circunspecção em torno das economias de mercado e dos sistemas democráticos para pretender ensinar aos capitalistas, políticos e povo em geral, como eles devem se comportar para "melhorar" o capitalismo.
O que está havendo com a Economist?
Seus editorialistas estão de porre? 
Eles pretendem adjetivar o capitalismo, e dizer o que é bom, ou mau, para esse regime econômico. Acho que eles deveriam esquecer essa função pedagógica no sentido de corrigir tendências contra as quais eles não podem fazer nada.
Melhor falar de cultura...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

O CAPITALISMO NÃO ANDA BEM!

(The Economist - O Estado de S. Paulo, 4/09/2019) O capitalismo não está funcionando como deveria. Empregos existem, mas o crescimento se arrasta, a desigualdade é alta e o meio ambiente está sofrendo. Seria de se esperar que os governos fizessem reformas para enfrentar esses problemas, mas a política anda travada ou é instável. Quem, então, vai se encarregar do resgate?

Um número grande de pessoas acredita que a resposta é confiar nas corporações. Mesmo os executivos americanos, conhecidos por ignorar limites, concordam. Na semana passada, mais de 180 deles, incluindo os chefes do Walmart e do JPMorgan Chase, derrubaram três décadas de ortodoxia para anunciar que o propósito básico de suas empresas não é mais beneficiar apenas os donos, mas clientes, funcionários, fornecedores e comunidade.

A motivação deles é tática e parte de uma mudança de atitude contra os negócios. Funcionários jovens querem trabalhar para firmas que adotem padrões morais e políticos em relação a questões atuais.

Por melhores que sejam as intenções, porém, essa nova forma de capitalismo coletivo terminará provocando mais males que benefícios. Há riscos de se formar uma classe de executivos inexperientes e sem legitimidade. Há também uma ameaça à prosperidade de longo prazo, condição básica ao sucesso do capitalismo.

Desde que os negócios ganharam confiança limitada na Grã-Bretanha e na França, no século 19, discute-se o que a sociedade pode esperar em retorno. No anos 1950 e 1960, Estados Unidos e Europa experimentaram o capitalismo gerencial, no qual empresas gigantes trabalhavam com governo e sindicatos e ofereciam aos trabalhadores segurança no emprego e benefícios. Mas, após a estagnação dos anos 1970, o enriquecimento dos acionistas passou a dominar, no processo de maximizar os lucros. Sindicatos entraram em declínio e o sucesso dos acionistas conquistou os Estados Unidos e em seguida a Europa e o Japão.

É esse modelo que está sob ataque. Como parte da investida, há um perceptível declínio na ética dos negócios. Empresas listadas em bolsas são acusadas de uma série de pecados, como obsessão por ganhos de curto prazo, investimentos irresponsáveis, exploração de funcionários, achatamento de salários e recusa em pagar por danos ambientais que criaram.

Algumas das advertências são verdadeiras. Consumidores frequentemente saem perdendo e a mobilidade social afundou. De qualquer modo, a reação popular e intelectual ao lucro a qualquer preço já está alterando a tomada de decisões. Líderes empresariais passaram a apoiar causas sociais populares entre clientes e funcionários. Empresas investem levando em conta não apenas eficiência. A Microsoft está financiando um projeto habitacional de US$ 500 milhões em Seattle.

Parece ótimo, mas o capitalismo coletivo enfrenta dois grandes problemas: ausência de responsabilidade ética e de dinamismo. Em relação à ética, não está claro como os executivos ficarão sabendo o que a “sociedade” espera de suas empresas. As probabilidades são de que políticos, lobistas e os próprios executivos venham a decidir, não dando voz às pessoas comuns.

O segundo problema é o dinamismo. As empresas têm de abandonar pelo menos alguns participantes – um número necessário para enxugar uma empresa obsoleta e realocar capital.

O meio de fazer o capitalismo funcionar melhor não é limitar a responsabilidade ética e o dinamismo, mas aperfeiçoar ambos. Isso requer que os propósitos das empresas sejam estabelecidos pelos donos e não por executivos ou políticos. A maioria deles vai optar por maximizar valores de longo prazo.

Um bom modo de fazer empresas com mais responsabilidade ética é ampliar o número de proprietários. A proporção de famílias americanas ligadas ao mercado de ações é de apenas 50%. O sistema tributário deveria encorajar mais o compartilhamento da propriedade. Os beneficiários finais de planos de pensão e fundos de investimento deveriam poder votar em eleições de diretoria. Esse poder não deveria ser terceirizado para poucos barões da indústria de gestão de ativos.

Responsabilidade ética só funciona se houver competição. Isso faz baixar preços, impulsiona a produtividade e garante que empresas não consigam ter por muito tempo lucros fora do normal. Mais ainda: estimula as empresas a se anteciparem às mudanças – por medo de que um concorrente faça isso primeiro.

Infelizmente, desde os anos 90 a consolidação deixou dois terços das indústrias dos Estados Unidos mais concentradas. Ao mesmo tempo, a economia digital parece tender ao monopólio. Se os lucros das empresas estivessem em níveis historicamente normais, e os trabalhadores do setor privado usufruíssem os benefícios, os salários seriam 6% mais altos. Na lista dos 180 empresários americanos que se reuniram na semana passada, muitos estão em indústrias que são oligopólios – incluindo cartões de crédito, TV a cabo, farmacêuticas e empresas aéreas –, que cobram demais dos consumidores. Sem surpresa, ninguém estava ansioso para reduzir as barreiras para ingresso no clube.

Obviamente, uma economia competitiva e saudável requer um governo efetivo – para aplicar leis antitruste, reprimir lobismo e nepotismo excessivos, lidar com as mudanças climáticas. Essa política ideal não existe, mas dar poder a executivos de grandes empresas para atuar como substitutos não é a resposta. O mundo precisa de inovação, de um maior número de proprietários e de empresas que se adaptem às necessidades da sociedade. É esse realmente o tipo mais esclarecido de capitalismo.
  

terça-feira, 13 de novembro de 2018

O pensamento de Xi Jinping, nova disciplina universitaria - Economist

O pensamento Xi Jinping, agora entronizado ao mesmo título que o pensamento de Mao Tsé-tung, que não sei se ainda é estudado. Por exemplo: "o poder está na ponta do fuzil"; bem representativo.
Essa coisa de "socialismo com características chinesas" seria um pouco como "tutu à mineira", ou "cuscus paulista", ou "feijoada carioca", ou "sarapatel à baiana"?
Acho que ultrapassa a dimensão culinária e vai muito mais longe. Uma longa marcha, enfim...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

China is struggling to explain Xi Jinping Thought

Universities have been mobilised to help

The Economist, 11/11/2018

THE INSTITUTE of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era occupies several rooms in the Marxism department of Renmin University in north Beijing. Qin Xuan, the institute’s director, says it is one of ten similar centres for the study of the philosophy that is attributed to China’s president. The institute has only a small administrative staff but about 70 affiliated academics. It produces research, offers advice to policymakers and organises seminars.
Mr Qin says that part of his team’s job is to explain Xi Thought to journalists, foreign diplomats and Chinese youngsters. In October he and researchers at other such institutes, all founded in the past year, appeared as judges and commentators on a youth-targeted game-show called “Studying the New Era”. It involved students who stood on the bridge of a starship and answered questions, posed by an animated robot, about Mr Xi’s speeches and biography. The show was part of an unusually lively series of programmes about ideology called “Socialism is Kind of Cool”, produced by a provincial television station.
A year has passed since Mr Xi, at a five-yearly Communist Party congress, declared that China had entered a “new era” and outlined how the party should manage this. The congress gave its rubber-stamp approval and revised the party’s charter to enshrine Mr Xi’s thinking on the topic as one of its guiding ideologies (he and Mao are the only ones named in the document as having Thought with a capital T—a mere Theory is ascribed to Deng Xiaoping).
Since Mr Xi took power six years ago, his aim has been fairly clear: to boost the party’s control over China’s fast-changing society while enhancing the country’s influence globally. But his Thought is woolly: a hodgepodge of Dengist and Maoist terminology combined with mostly vague ideas on topics ranging from the environment (making China “beautiful”) to building a “world-class” army.

Cartographic contortions

Xi Thought is now being “hammered home harder” than any set of ideas since Deng launched his “reform and opening” policy nearly 40 years ago, says Kerry Brown of King’s College, London. Most universities have incorporated lectures on the topic into the basic-level ideology courses which all Chinese students are required to take. Some have created additional elective courses for undergraduates. This academic year high schools have been supplied with new materials to help them teach it, too.
The indoctrination effort extends well beyond academia. In May the party’s propaganda department published a 355-page, 30-chapter book which it said provided an “in-depth” understanding of Xi Thought. It said every party cell must study the work. Last month the party’s mouthpiece, the People’s Daily, published on social media a labyrinthine mind-map based on the book (for a high-resolution image of this map, see economist.com/xismind). It is so packed with ideas and quotations that much image-expanding effort, as users complained, is required to make it legible. The map’s complexity conveys the ordeal that those trying to master the Thought are facing.




A slog, but it’s the thought that counts

To help them, some big firms have set up Xi Thought “study rooms”. So too have libraries and community centres. In July Global Times, a tabloid owned by the People’s Daily, crowed that the Thought was being “studied in all corners of society, from local governments to media outlets, from university students to street cleaners”.
One purpose appears to be to enhance Mr Xi’s stature as a leader comparable in power to Mao. Deng Theory is less often mentioned these days. Last month Mr Xi made his first publicised trip in six years to Guangdong, the southern province where many of Deng’s reforms first took hold. During his tour Mr Xi did not even mention the architect of those reforms—a striking omission given that next month China will mark the 40th anniversary of their launch.
In April Qian Xian, a party journal, said there had been continual debate over the meaning of “socialism with Chinese characteristics”, the concept at the heart of Deng Theory. In an apparent dig at a weakness of the Theory, the article said “some people” thought the phrase was another way of saying “capitalism with Chinese characteristics”. This, it said, had created “theoretical chaos”. Mr Xi stresses that socialism with Chinese characteristics is in fact about “socialism and not any other kind of –ism” (point two, subsection three on the mind-map).
Deep understanding is not required. The party has a long history of requiring people to mouth leaders’ slogans as a way of showing loyalty. Research on Xi Thought is mostly banal. Kevin Carrico of Macquarie University in Australia studied the Thought through a distance-learning course run by Tsinghua, one of China’s best universities. He wrote in Foreign Policy that the video lectures repeated platitudes that would be “familiar to anyone who has spent time in Beijing in the last 40 years”. They offered, he said, “an unprecedented opportunity to observe the poverty of China’s state-enforced ideology”.
Xi Thought is formally described as a summary of the “collective wisdom” of the party, and to some degree it is. In addition to borrowing from his predecessors, it is likely that Mr Xi relied heavily on the work of Wang Huning, a former academic who has played an important behind-the-scenes role in devising party-think since early this century, including Mr Xi’s notion of a “Chinese dream” (number three on the mind-map, with numerous subordinate points). Last year Mr Wang joined the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, the pinnacle of party power.
Yet promoting Mr Xi as China’s thinker-in-chief could put him at risk. The more he is linked to China’s “new era” the harder it will be for him to deflect criticism for anything that goes wrong. A speech late last month by Deng Pufang, one of Deng’s sons, gave a hint of dissent within the elite. In it Mr Deng appeared to criticise Mr Xi’s assertive foreign policy. China, he said, should “keep a sober mind and know our own place”. That idea is not on the map.

For a high-resolution image of this map, see economist.com/xismind



This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline"Mind-boggling"

quinta-feira, 20 de setembro de 2018

A Economist se assusta com Bolsonaro, e o compara a outros ditadores da AL

O Estadão resume o editorial (com direito a capa) da Economist, que pretende combater a ameaça de Bolsonaro, mas que pode acabar promovendo-o um pouco mais.
Primeiro transcrevo a matéria do Estadão, depois o editorial da Economist.

Estadão (20/09/2018): 

'The Economist' chama Bolsonaro de 'a mais recente ameaça da América Latina'

Revista britânica defensora do liberalismo traz candidato do PSL na capa, diz que governo de deputado seria 'desastroso' para o País e a região e cita experiência autoritária na Venezuela e na Nicarágua

O candidato do PSL à Presidência nas eleições 2018Jair Bolsonaro, é o destaque da capa da edição desta semana da revista britânica The Economist. No seu artigo principal, a publicação destaca o deputado como "a mais recente ameaça da América Latina" e considera que um eventual governo Bolsonaro seria "desastroso" para o País e a região. Leia a íntegra do artigo.  
O texto compara o avanço de Bolsonaro e de suas propostas ao avanço do populismo nos Estados Unidos, com Donald Trump; na Itália, com Matteo Salvini; e nas Filipinas de Rodrigo Duterte. Para a Economist, Bolsonaro soube explorar a combinação de recessão econômica, descrédito com a classe política e aumento da violência urbana com a apresentação de visões conservadoras e uma proposta de economia pró-mercado.  
"Os brasileiros não devem se enganar. Bolsonaro tem uma admiração preocupante por ditaduras", diz o texto, que o compara ao ditador chileno Augusto Pinochet. 
A revista lembra também que o principal assessor econômico de Bolsonaro é Paulo Guedes, que, assim como a equipe do ditador chileno, foi educado na Universidade de Chicago, um bastião da ideologia do livre mercado. "Guedes é a favor da privatização de todas as estatais e uma simplificação brutal dos impostos", lembra a revista.  
"A América Latina conheceu homens fortes de todo tipo e a maioria dessas experiências foi horrorosa. Provas recentes disso são a Venezuela e a Nicarágua." 
A revista lembra também que o próximo governo precisará do apoio do Congresso e dificilmente Bolsonaro terá maioria parlamentar. "Para governar, Bolsonaro poderia degradar o processo político ainda mais, potencialmente abrindo caminho para algo ainda pior", diz o texto.  
A Economist ainda diz que a chegada do petista Fernando Haddad ao segundo turno pode jogar muitos eleitores da elite e da classe média que culpam o ex-presidente Lula e o PT pelos problemas do País no colo de Bolsonaro.   
"Em vez de acreditar nas promessas vãs de um político perigoso na esperança de que ele resolva todos os problemas, os brasileiros precisam perceber que a tarefa de consertar sua democracia e reformar sua economia não será rápida nem fácil."


Economist (September 20. 2018): 

A mais recente ameaça da América Latina

Caso seja eleito, Jair Bolsonaro pode colocar a própria sobrevivência da maior democracia da América Latina em risco

"Deus é Brasileiro", diz o ditado que batiza um popular filme do cinema nacional. As belezas do Brasil, suas riquezas naturais e a música fazem o País parecer abençoado de maneira única. Mas ultimamente os brasileiros precisam se perguntar se, assim como no filme, Deus saiu de férias. A economia é um desastre, as contas públicas estão sob pressão e a política está bastante apodrecida. A violência urbana também tem crescido. Entre as 20 cidades mais violentas do mundo, 7 são brasileiras. 
As eleições presidenciais do mês que vem dão ao Brasil a chance de um recomeço. Apesar disso, se a vitória for de Jair Bolsonaro, um populista de direita, os brasileiros correm o risco de tornar tudo pior. O senhor Bolsonaro, cujo nome do meio é Messias, promete a salvação; na verdade, ele é uma ameaça para o Brasil e para a América Latina. 
Bolsonaro é o mais recente de um desfile de populistas: de Donald Trump nos Estados Unidos a Rodrigo Duterte nas Filipinas, passando pela coalizão esquerda-direita de Matteo Salvini na Itália. Na América Latina, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, um agitador de esquerda, tomará posse no México em dezembro. Bolsonaro pode ser um acréscimo desprezível para o clube. Caso seja eleito, ele pode colocar a própria sobrevivência da maior democracia da América Latina em risco. 

Amargor brasileiro

Populistas tiram proveito de um conjunto comum de problemas. Um deles é uma economia em frangalhos, e no Brasil esse fracasso tem sido catastrófico. Na pior recessão de sua história, o PIB per capita encolheu 10% entre 2014 e 2016 e ainda não conseguiu se recuperar. A taxa de desemprego é de 12%. 
O cheiro de uma elite absorta em seus próprios interesses e corrupta é outra queixa - e no Brasil isso se transformou em fedor. O conjunto de investigações conhecido como Lava Jato provocou o descrédito de toda a classe política. Dezenas de políticos estão sob investigação. Michel Temer, que tornou-se presidente em 2016 depois de sua antecessora, Dilma Rousseff, ter sofrido um impeachment com base em acusações não relacionadas (à Lava Jato), escapou de ser julgado pela Suprema Corte só porque o Congresso votou para poupá-lo. 
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, outro ex-presidente, foi preso por corrupção e impedido de disputar a eleição. Brasileiros dizem às pesquisas de opinião que as palavras que melhor identificam o País são "corrupção", "vergonha" e "desapontamento". 
Bolsonaro explorou essa fúria brilhantemente. Até os escândalos da Lava Jato, ele era um coadjuvante deputado do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Ele tem um longo histórico de ofensas  grosseiras. Ele disse que não estupraria uma deputada porque ela era "feia demais"; ele disse que preferia um filho morto a um filho gay"; ele sugeriu que pessoas que vivem em assentamentos fundados por escravos fugidos (quilombolas) eram gordos e preguiçosos. Repentinamente, essa disposição para romper tabus está sendo interpretada como prova de que ele é diferente dos políticos de Brasília. 
Para brasileiros desesperados para se livrar de políticos corruptos e narcotraficantes assassinos, Bolsonaro se apresenta como um xerife durão. Cristão evangélico, ele mistura valores conservadores com liberalismo econômico, ao qual se converteu recentemente. Seu principal assessor nessa área é Paulo Guedes, formado na Universidade de Chicago, bastião das ideias pró mercado livre. Ele defende a privatização de todas as empresas estatais do país e uma brutal simplificação tributária. Bolsonaro pretende também reduzir o número de ministérios de 29 para 15 e colocar generais a cargo de algumas dessas pastas. 
Sua fórmula vem ganhando apoio. As pesquisas dão a ele 28% dos votos e ele é o líder isolado de uma disputa renhida pelo segundo lugar no primeiro turno, em 7 de outubro. Neste mês, ele levou uma facada no abdômen num comício, o que o colocou em um hospital. Isso o fez mais popular e o afastou de um escrutínio mais vigoroso da imprensa e de seus rivais. 
Se ele enfrentar Fernando Haddad, do Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), no segundo turno, muitos eleitores de classe média e da elite, que culpam Lula e o PT acima de tudo pelos problemas do País, podem ir para os seus braços. 

A tentação pinochetista

Eles não devem se equivocar. Além de suas visões não liberais no campo do comportamento, Bolsonaro tem uma admiração preocupante por ditaduras. Ele dedicou seu voto pelo impeachment de Dilma Rousseff ao comandante de uma unidade responsável por 500 casos de tortura e 40 assassinatos durante o regime militar, que governou o Brasil entre 1964 e 1985. O vice de Bolsonaro é Hamilton Mourão, um general reformado, que no ano passado sugeriu uma intervenção militar para solucionar os problemas do país. A resposta de Bolsonaro à criminalidade é, com efeito, matar mais criminosos, apesar de, em 2016, a polícia no Brasil ter matado mais de 4 mil pessoas. 
A América Latina já experimentou a mistura entre política autoritária e economia liberal. Augusto Pinochet, o ditador brutal que comandou o Chile entre 1973 e 1990 era assessorado pelos "garotos de Chicago". Eles ajudaram a assentar as bases para a relativa prosperidade chilena de hoje, mas a um custo humano e social terrível. O fatalismo brasileiros sobre corrupção pode ser resumido na frase "rouba, mas faz". Eles não devem se inclinar por Bolsonaro - cuja versão do ditado poderia ser "eles torturaram, mas fizeram." A América Latina conheceu todo tipo de homens fortes, a maioria deles horrorosos. Para provas mais recentes é só olhar para os desastres na Venezuela e na Nicarágua. 
Bolsonaro pode não conseguir converter seu populismo em uma ditadura ao estilo pinochetista, mesmo que ele queira. Mas a democracia brasileira é muito nova. Mesmo um flerte com o autoritarismo é preocupante. Todo presidente brasileiro precisa de uma coalizão no Congresso para aprovar projetos. Bolsonaro tem poucos amigos na política. Para governar, ele poderia ser levado a degradar ainda mais a política, potencialmente abrindo caminho para algo ainda pior. 
Em vez de acreditar em promessas vãs de um político perigoso na esperança de que ele resolva todos seus problemas, os brasileiros precisam perceber que a tarefa de curar sua democracia e reformar a economia não será fácil nem rápida. Algum progresso foi feito, como o veto a doações empresariais e o congelamento de gastos públicos. Mais reformas são necessárias. Bolsonaro não é o homem para entregá-las.
/ TRADUÇÃO DE LUIZ RAATZ


sexta-feira, 2 de outubro de 2015

Economist: O caminho do desastre em toda a sua magnitude


Bello
Dilma in the vortex
Brazil’s economic and political crises are reinforcing each other
The Economist, October 3rd 2015 

JUST as animals can smell fear in humans, financial markets pounce when they sniff government paralysis and division. So it was with Brazil in late September. In a fortnight the real plunged from 3.8 to the dollar to 4.2. Only when the Central Bank stepped in, offering dollars, was a semblance of calm restored. The immediate reason for the mayhem was the decision last month by Standard & Poor’s, a rating agency, to downgrade Brazil’s credit rating from investment grade to junk. That in turn was the inevitable result of the government’s fiscal adjustment coming apart at the seams.
After Dilma Rousseff narrowly won a second term as Brazil’s president a year ago, she signalled a change of economic course. Loose fiscal policy had pushed public debt to 60% of GDP in her first term. So she brought in Joaquim Levy, a fiscal hawk, as finance minister. He set a target of a primary surplus (ie, before interest payments) of 1.2% for this year (compared with a primary deficit of 0.6% in 2014) and of 2% next year.
Mr Levy said he could achieve this merely by trimming discretionary federal spending (on things like student and housing grants) and by abolishing some tax breaks. But he underestimated the severity of Brazil’s recession—the economy is set to contract by 3% this year—and the consequent fall in tax revenues. Fatally, instead of announcing stiffer spending cuts, Mr Levy loosened his targets. The economic team made a complete mess of next year’s budget, saying at first that it would involve a deficit and backtracking only after the downgrade.
It is an open secret in Brasília that Mr Levy wanted harsher measures. But the president declined to back him. She is at best a reluctant convert to austerity, and she lacks the authority to impose it. She has lost control over Congress, which must approve the cuts to legally mandated spending (on pensions and transfers, for example) which are now required. Moreover, she is also deeply unpopular (see chart), for two reasons. The first is a baroque corruption scandal in which politicians from her ruling Workers’ Party (PT) and its allies are accused of skimming some $4 billion from contracts awarded by Petrobras, the state oil company. The second is that the recession is biting into living standards. Brazil is losing 100,000 formal jobs a month, notes Eduardo Giannetti, an opposition economist. He says that “people are very fearful for the future”.
Rather than sorting out the economy, Ms Rousseff’s priority has become survival, week by week. Later this month the Federal Audit Court is likely to reject last year’s public accounts as irregular. And the electoral court is investigating whether her re-election campaign in 2014 benefited from corrupt donations. Either issue could trigger an attempt to impeach her. The opposition claims to have more than the simple majority of votes in the lower house of Congress required to start the process, though not the two-thirds needed for impeachment itself. So the president’s task this week is to prevent the PT’s main coalition partner, the centrist Party of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (PMDB), from jumping ship, by offering it bigger jobs in a slimmed-down cabinet.
Ms Rousseff may yet be able to muddle through in this fashion until 2018. Both the PMDB and the opposition are hesitant about inheriting the economic mess if they push her out. But there is a real risk that in the coming months the president will find she can no longer govern. Only a credible fiscal squeeze can restore confidence in the currency and allow the Central Bank to cut interest rates, opening the way to recovery. But the PT is openly critical of Mr Levy’s policies. And the centre-right opposition has hypocritically voted against austerity measures it believes in.
Ms Rousseff claims that impeachment would be a “coup”. That is false. At the least, it would be a recognition that she won her second term on a false prospectus of continued welfare spending. The PT itself tried (and failed) to impeach Fernando Henrique Cardoso, a former president, months after he won a second term. Yet barring clear evidence of wrongdoing, impeachment would be deeply divisive.
Ms Rousseff also says that as a former urban guerrilla who survived torture, she would never bow to pressure and resign. But if the economic crisis worsens, she may find herself in an untenable position. One recent opinion poll by Ideia Inteligência found that of 20,000 telephone respondents, 64% said that the president would not complete her term. Of these, 60% thought she would resign. It is starting to look as if they may be right.

sexta-feira, 8 de agosto de 2014

Los hermanos, again and again, deja vu, all over again...

Desculpem ser reincidente. É que los hermanos são reincidentes numa coisa: eles são capazes de praticar as mesmas c . . . . . s várias vezes seguidas, sem mesmo se dar conta disso.
Acho até que a Economist foi muito boazinha, complacente, compreensiva, com esse caso terminal. Ela está sendo muito otimista em relação à capacidade da Argentina (ou de seus líderes políticos) de adotar os remédios certos, e superar as dificuldades pela via do ajuste, não da embromação, do subterfúgio, do escapismo, das acusações externas, enfim, essas coisas que eles sempre fazem.
O Brasil ainda não cansou de aguentar desaforos?
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

The palindrome of Kirchnerismo
Default gives Argentina’s president a political advantage, but not for long
Aug 9th 2014 | From the print edition /The Economist

IT IS a rainy Saturday morning, three days after Argentina defaulted on part of its foreign debt. In a damp and flimsy shack in Salas, a settlement of muddy lanes and foul streams on the outskirts of Buenos Aires, Ramon Gallardo and his neighbours listen attentively to staff from TECHO, a housing charity. They are briefing residents about the 15 one-room huts they will build in return for a nominal contribution of money and labour. TECHO has erected many of its sturdy, weather-proof huts in struggling Haiti. But there are takers in rich Argentina, too.

Many of them are among the 20-30% of Argentines who, according to unofficial estimates, live in poverty despite a decade of economic growth. Now Mr Gallardo is worried that his work as a casual building labourer will dry up. “They told me the job I’m on will stop because of the default,” he says.

Urban myth or not, this perception highlights the risk that President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has run by choosing to scotch last-minute talks and defy an order by Thomas Griesa, a New York judge, to settle with hedge funds that are demanding full repayment of their Argentine bonds. As a result, Judge Griesa blocked a payment to some of Argentina’s foreign bondholders who took part in debt restructurings in 2005 and 2010 and hold 93% of the debt. That, in turn, precipitated the default on July 30th.

Ms Fernández and Axel Kiciloff, her inexperienced economy minister, rail that Argentina is once again being mistreated by speculative “vulture funds”, and by a judge who appears out of his depth. Some of these points have merit. But unlike the last time Argentina defaulted in 2001, it is not insolvent. Ms Fernández and her late husband and predecessor, Néstor Kirchner, could have dealt with the “hold-out” creditors years ago by quietly buying up their bonds. Even now, her officials have offered the judge no alternative solution and seem to have no clear negotiating strategy.

Instead, the president has opted to try to turn this battle into a nationalist epic. That offers an immediate, albeit slight, political dividend: her approval rating has crept up to over 40%. In this she is being true to type. In 11 years in power the Kirchners have preferred nationalism and confrontation to pragmatism and professional competence, while focusing relentlessly on the short term. When the economy was rebounding from the collapse of 2001-02, and was helped by a big rise in world prices for Argentina’s farm exports, “they discovered that they could govern for ten years solving each day’s problems,” says Luis Alberto Romero, a historian. “But now those problems are mounting up.”

Even before the default, the economy was set to contract by about 1.5% this year. Businesses are laying off workers, or cancelling overtime. The current account and the public finances are both in deficit. Inflation is at 39%, according to Elypsis, a consultancy. On the black market a dollar costs nearly 50% more than it does at the official exchange rate.

With foreign-exchange reserves dwindling, Ms Fernández had begun to settle the disputes with investors that prevent Argentina drawing on international credit. Her priority had seemed to be to reach the end of her term in December 2015 in reasonably good order. That now looks harder. How much worse the economy gets as a result of the default depends on how long it lasts. Many financial analysts assume that the government will settle in January (when a clause in the restructured bonds that makes this harder will expire). That may be too sanguine.

The uncertainty Ms Fernández has unleashed will curb investment. The government’s only Plan B is an $11 billion currency-swap facility with China which may slightly ease the pressure on the currency reserves (and thus on the exchange rate). But if more Argentines find, like Mr Gallardo, that default threatens their job, they may start to blame the president.

The Kirchners’ decade in power resembles “a palindrome”, according to Eduardo Levy Yeyati of Elypsis. It began with default, recovery, opening up and rising expectations, and then reversed the order. But not wholly so.

Three things mitigate Argentina’s mess. One is that the government’s child allowances, which many in the Salas settlement receive, mean the social desperation of 2002 ought not to be repeated. The second is that a better-advised and more pragmatic president would find it fairly easy to put the economy back on track and win foreign investment. And third, next year’s election is likely to produce this outcome. It is the knowledge that Ms Fernández is on the way out and that her populism is no longer affordable that is putting a floor under economic decline.