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Mostrando postagens com marcador The Washington Post. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador The Washington Post. Mostrar todas as postagens

quarta-feira, 25 de fevereiro de 2015

Adolf Hitler e o seu Mein Kampf: o que George Orwell disse a respeito? - Ishaan Tharoor (WP)

What George Orwell said about Hitler’s ‘Mein Kampf’

The Washington Post, February 25 at 12:20 PM
As my colleague Anthony Faiola reported this week, Adolf Hitler's "Mein Kampf" is expected to be reissued in Germany for the first time since the end of World War II. Although widely available elsewhere in the world, the book — Hitler's testament and what's considered the founding text of Nazism — was never reprinted in postwar Germany.
Its planned reissue in Germany, The Post notes, will come in the form of a 2,000-page academic tome that supplements Hitler's own text with sharp commentary and criticism. The new version offers "a useful way of communicating historical education and enlightenment," says one of the scholars behind the project. "A publication with the appropriate comments, exactly to prevent these traumatic events from ever happening again."
[Read: ‘Mein Kampf’: A historical tool, or Hitler’s voice from beyond the grave?]
There was a time, though, when "Mein Kampf" was not just the repugnant treatise of the 20th century's greatest villain. More than seven decades ago, Hitler and the message of Nazism had great traction, and it required clear-eyed thinkers to cut through its seductions.
George Orwell's 1940 review of an English edition of the book is as important now as it would have been then. (You can read a digitized version of the piece, which appeared in the New English Weeklyhere.) That's not because he's uniquely right about the threat of Hitler — at this point, World War II was already in full swing. But the celebrated British man of letters has a special lens into the dangers and allure of fascism.
Orwell offers this withering assessment of Hitler's ambitions:
What [Hitler] envisages, a hundred years hence, is a continuous state of 250 million Germans with plenty of “living room” (i.e. stretching to Afghanistan or thereabouts), a horrible brainless empire in which, essentially, nothing ever happens except the training of young men for war and the endless breeding of fresh cannon-fodder. How was it that he was able to put this monstrous vision across?
It's not sufficient to answer that last question just by looking at the political and economic forces that buoyed Hitler's rise, Orwell contends. Rather, one has to grapple with the inescapable fact that "there is something deeply appealing about him."
Hitler, Orwell writes, "knows that human beings don’t only want comfort, safety, short working-hours, hygiene... they also, at least intermittently, want struggle and self-sacrifice, not to mention drums, flags and loyalty-parades."
For good reason, the Atlantic's Graeme Wood quoted this same piece in his lengthy meditation on the worldview of the militants of the Islamic State. The militarist pageantry of fascism, and the sense of purpose it gives its adherents, echoes in the messianic call of the jihadists.
Wood cites this passage in Orwell's review: "Whereas Socialism, and even capitalism in a more grudging way, have said to people 'I offer you a good time,' Hitler has said to them, 'I offer you struggle, danger, and death,' and as a result a whole nation flings itself at his feet."
But, in my view, the most poignant section of Orwell's article dwells less on the underpinnings of Nazism and more on Hitler's dictatorial style. Orwell gazes at the portrait of Hitler published in the edition he's reviewing:
It is a pathetic, dog-like face, the face of a man suffering under intolerable wrongs. In a rather more manly way it reproduces the expression of innumerable pictures of Christ crucified, and there is little doubt that that is how Hitler sees himself. The initial, personal cause of his grievance against the universe can only be guessed at; but at any rate the grievance is here. He is the martyr, the victim, Prometheus chained to the rock, the self-sacrificing hero who fights single-handed against impossible odds. If he were killing a mouse he would know how to make it seem like a dragon. One feels, as with Napoleon, that he is fighting against destiny, that he can’t win, and yet that he somehow deserves to.
Hitler projected this image — of a self-sacrificing hero, wounded by the universe — and went on to unleash horrors on the world. But the narcissism of a "martyr" and the penchant to make dragons out of mice, as Orwell puts it, can be found in demagogues of all political stripes. It's worth keeping these words in mind when watching the spectacle of our contemporary politics.
Related links
Ishaan Tharoor writes about foreign affairs for The Washington Post. He previously was a senior editor at TIME, based first in Hong Kong and later in New York.

segunda-feira, 9 de fevereiro de 2015

Arabia Saudita: o proximo Estado "failido" no Oriente Medio? Ainda nao, mas... (opiniao WP)

A opinião é de um ex-dissidente na União Soviética, e portant suspeita, mas que a Arábia Saudita seja um gigante com pés de barro, disso não há nenhuma dúvida. Só que se trata de um gigante apodrecido ainda com muito dinheiro, e isso faz muita diferença...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Trust the dissidents, not the diplomats

 
The Washington Post, February 6, 2015
 
Natan Sharansky is chairman of the Jewish Agency for Israel and a former political prisoner in the Soviet Union. David Keyes is executive director of Advancing Human Rights.
Recently leaders of the free world flocked to Saudi Arabia to meet with the new king , where they praised the country as a partner for peace and center of stability. But many dissidents disagreed. As Mansour Al-Hadj, a liberal activist who lived in Saudi Arabia for 20 years, said: “Saudi Arabia is not stable. Deep down, people are not happy. Sooner or later, the winds of change will come to Saudi Arabia. The regime will fall.”
If history is any judge, the world should bet on the dissidents, not the diplomats.
On Jan. 25, 2011, just two weeks before the fall of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, then-U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gave her assessment “that the Egyptian government is stable.” That March, Clinton’s successor, John F. Kerry, praised “good-faith” measures taken by Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and predicted that his regime would change for the better “as it embraces a legitimate relationship with the United States and the West.”
Clinton and Kerry were certainly not alone in assessing that these dictators were securely in power. Former Amnesty International USA executive director Larry Cox later said that “nobody that I know of predicted it, no experts, no pundits, no politicians saw the revolution coming.”
After the Arab Spring, many of the same experts and policymakers who had insisted that the region was stable claimed that no one could have foreseen the uprisings. But this is untrue. A chorus of uniquely insightful individuals predicted exactly what would happen: the democratic dissidents who languished in prison cells in Tunisia, Libya, Syria and Egypt.
Witnesses to unimaginable injustice, these men and women felt viscerally that the dictators’ days were limited. They were the soldiers on the front line of the historical drama about to unfold. The experts simply chose not to listen.
In 2006, for example, from the depths of his torture chamber, Syrian dissident Kamal Labwani — jailed for a decade under the Assad regime — predicted that without democratic change, Syria would end up in a situation “no less terrifying than what happened in Iraq, Lebanon and Somalia.” He presaged the rise of radicalism, arguing that “the alternative to democracy is inevitably civil war and fundamentalism.”
Likewise, in 2007, from his prison cell in Egypt, blogger Kareem Amer declared to the region’s tyrants and authoritarians that their “attempts to shut our mouths and restrict our freedom” would eventually fail. “You should be very worried about us,” he wrote. “Your days are numbered and your dark nights are approaching their end.”
There were many such prophetic voices, dissidents who foresaw what would happen in their countries but whose warnings fell on deaf ears abroad. What did they know or understand that our experts and leaders did not? The answer is the power of inner freedom. Having crossed the line from living in fear to questioning and then actively fighting against their regimes, dissidents know how difficult it is to suppress the longing to live freely. As more of their fellow citizens cross this line, dissidents see how much additional energy the regime has to expend to keep its population in check. As Soviet dissident Andrei Amalrik observed, any system that has to spend all of its energy controlling the thoughts of its citizens must break down eventually.
Anyone who remembers the fall of the Soviet Union ought to understand the importance of listening to dissidents. Throughout the 1970s and ’80s and until the last days of the Evil Empire, leading Western politicians and Sovietologists repeatedly diagnosed the regime as stable. In 1992, then-CIA Director Robert M. Gates admitted that it was not until 1989 that the intelligence agency began to think that the Soviet Union might collapse. Amalrik, by contrast, had predicted this years earlier, in his aptly titled 1969 book, “Will the Soviet Union Survive until 1984?” He, together with generations of Soviet dissidents led by Andrei Sakharov, paid a heavy price for explaining to the West that the regime’s downfall was inevitable.
Those dissidents were admired, loved and even defended, but they were not listened to. Western experts, blinded by the power of Soviet weapons and the delusory self-confidence of Soviet parades and leaders, dismissed their predictions. Thus, when Mikhail Gorbachev began dismantling the Soviet system and the dissidents’ prophecies came true, these same experts were caught by surprise.
Only a few decades later, the leaders of the free world have all but forgotten this lesson. If they had listened more closely to the Middle East’s dissidents, they might have been better prepared for the 2011 revolutions. Perhaps they would have spent less money arming and funding dictators and more time supporting moderates in their quest for civil society and freedom.
To make matters worse, today we are witnessing a full-fledged return to the policy of supporting dictators. The White House has all but dropped the demand that Assad step down, hinting that he could be a partner in the fight against the Islamic State. U.S. and European diplomats are pursuing deals with the Iranian regime and regard Egypt’s Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Sissi as a bulwark of stability. The new Saudi king has been touted as a robust ally.
There may be tactical advantages to partnering with these regimes against the growing threat of fundamentalist terror. But we must not ignore the insights of dissidents who remind us that dictators are not our strategic allies and are certainly not guarantors of long-term stability.
The current propensity to neglect dissidents and prop up dictators guarantees that there will be many more surprises in the Middle East. When coups and revolutions once again upend the region, our experts will surely ask: “But who could have seen it coming?”

quarta-feira, 4 de fevereiro de 2015

Argentina-China: eles so quelem complar aloz e petloleo? Humor pouco englacado da plesidente algentina...

O Blog World View do Washington Post comenta as tentativas canhestras de humor da presidente Cristina Kirchner, ou feitas em seu nome....
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Argentina’s president sent out this strange, offensive, and frankly racist, tweet

The Washington Post, February 4 at 1:46 PM
The only thing worse than mocking an accent heard in another country is doing it publicly, via Twitter, when you're the president of Argentina, while you're in that other country on a high-stakes diplomatic visit.
Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner made a strange attempt at humor Wednesday morning when she took to Twitter during a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Rather than chronicle the discussions, which were centered around the South American economy's need for foreign investment, Kirchner instead made light of the situation by poking fun at the Chinese accent.
"Vinieron solo por el aloz y petroleo," Kirchner wrote, replacing rs with ls in both instances. The English equivalent would look something like this: "Did they only come for lice and petloleum.Here's the full tweet, which, as you can see, has been eagerly retweeted and as of 12:30 p.m. still hadn't been deleted:
Kirchner, to be fair, did follow up with a half-apology, which blamed "ridiculousness" and "absurdity" for the need for humor. "If not, it's very, very toxic," it said.
But what Kirchner seems to misunderstand is that her sense of humor is questionable at best. It was in poor taste for her to mock an Asian accent, especially while sitting with the Chinese president, negotiating with him, no less, for money.
Argentina has been working with China to secure a currency swap, which will help Argentina boost its dwindling reserves. And that's on top of the billions Argentina already receives from China each year. Why make fun of the hand that feeds you? Who knows.
Kirchner's tasteless tweet comes on the heels of a separate and much more serious public relations problem. A leading prosecutor investigating the bombing of a Jewish Center in Argentina in 1994 turned up dead shortly after accusing the Argentine government of working to cover up the inquiry. Kirchner originally called the prosecutor's death a suicide before backtracking on her suggestion and saying instead that the death was part of a plot to undermine her government.
Kirchner's approval rating has fallen by seven points since November and now stands below 40 percent, according to a poll conducting Wednesday morning by Carlos Fara and Associates. It's hard to imagine this latest gaffe will help reverse that trend.
China welcomes Argentine president(1:13)
Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, who is in Beijing to bolster ties, attends a welcome ceremony hosted by her Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. (Reuters)
Roberto A. Ferdman is a reporter for Wonkblog covering food, economics, immigration and other things. He was previously a staff writer at Quartz.

terça-feira, 30 de dezembro de 2014

Google world: as buscas mais comuns em certos paises em 2014 - The Washington Post, World Views

O Google (quem nao está nele, ou quem não o usa?) é um instrumento fabuloso: quando tomei conhecimento de sua existência, no final dos anos 1990, ainda hesitei um pouco em adotá-lo como buscador principal, em substituição ao que eu então usava (e que por incrível que pareça, já nem me lembro de qual era, tantas foram as derrocadas nesse campo: alguém ainda se lembra do navegador Netscape, que chegou a ter mais de 90% do mercado?), mas depois que passei a utilizá-lo ele virou até palavra e verbo de uso corrente, pelo menos nos EUA. Mas também no Brasil: quem é que não googlelizou em busca de algo útil? (e aí acabam aparecendo 545 mil opções de respostas...)
Pois aqui estão as palavras mais frequentes buscadas em certos países.
Quem tiver paciência, procure pela principal palavra no Brasil, OK?
Aposto como tem a ver com os saudáveis hábitos companheiros...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

5 Google search trends that help explain the chaos of 2014

 
The Washington Post, World Views, December 29 at 12:20 PM
Every year, Google releases a variety of lists that reveal the world's favorite search terms. The American tech corporation also distinguishes between countries and categories, which allows an examination of global differences in search behavior.
Of course, Google's search trends do not reflect world events in their entirety, partially because the search engine is not dominant in all countries and many Middle Eastern nations are missing from Google's summary. In some cases, however, the search trends reflect worrisome international conflicts or problems.
You can take a closer look at the data here, but we have compiled a list of some of the most politically revealing search trends in 2014.
Ukrainians were more interested in manuals that explain how to make molotov cocktails than in any other recipe. Google considers such manuals to be recipes -- a category that is usually occupied by cook-book entries in other countries. 
In 2013, nobody would have predicted that 2014 could become such a decisive year in the history of Ukraine. Last January, Ukrainians angered by the government of then President Viktor Yanukovych, a Moscow ally, protested in Kiev and western Ukraine. Violence soon overshadowed the uprising and Feb. 20, at least 88 people were killed within only 48 hours.
Two days later, Yanukovych fled to Russia -- but chaos persisted in Ukraine.
The particular interest in molotov cocktails can be traced back to the street fights in Kiev and other cities that were particularly frequent in the first half of the year.
In 2013, the most asked question in Ukraine that involved the word 'How' was "How to make a screenshot?" This year, however, Ukrainians were primarily interested in: "How do I save electricity?"
As the Economist pointed out in November, Ukraine is the world's least equal country in terms of wealth. The Post's editorial board concluded on Dec. 22 that Ukraine's currency and GDP forecasts were in even worse shape than Russia's. Given that Ukraine braces for a cold winter, experts fear the collapse of the country's already fragile economy.
The European Union recently estimated that at least $15 billion in additional foreign assistance was needed to prevent the implosion of Ukraine's economy.
Many Ukrainians are already feeling the impact: Earlier this month, the U.N. children's agency warned that more than 1.7 million children were suffering due to the conflict in Ukraine and that the situation was exacerbated by cold temperatures and a lack of supplies.
In Sweden, the fourth most googled question starting with "Why?" has been: "Why was the E.U. established?"
Sweden is often considered a role model democracy and welfare state. This year, though, was a tough one for admirers of the Scandinavian nation of roughly 9.5 million inhabitants.
2014 exposed an anti-immigration attitude among many Swedish that has worried many abroad. An anti-immigration party that is often accused of promoting xenophobia came in third in this year's elections in September.
When Europe elected the E.U. parliament in May, anti-immigration as well as anti-European Union attitudes gained momentum and were often promoted by the same right-wing parties. That could explain the Swedish interest in getting to know why the E.U. was established in the first place.
Many French searched for information on how to abstain from elections. "How to vote blank/ white" was most searched in the category of sentences starting with "How to …”
France's political elite had at least three reasons to be worried this year: the European Parliament elections, as well as the country's Senate and municipal elections. All three turned out to be disastrous for the ruling Socialist party.
While France's current President Francois Hollande became the most unpopular one in the country's recent history, right-wing party Front National celebrated major gains.
Its success was fueled by the country's weak economic performance, high unemployment rates, and a rise in xenophobic, as well as anti-Semitic, attitudes.
With an abstention rate of 56.5 percent from this year's E.U. elections, France was far above average (43.1 percent). Many polling experts believe that the high rate of abstention is a sign of frustration among the French with their political elites.
5. In Israel, the most searched news event term was the Home Front Command.
Israel's Home Front Command, established in 1992, is a military entity that is deployed within the country. For instance, its Web site provides instructions and local alerts in the case of an emergency or attack.
Hence, the Command was among the most regionally searched terms in 2014 – a year in which thousands (and far more Palestinians than Israelis) died in a conflict that was dubbed Operation Protective Edge by Israel.
Rick Noack writes about foreign affairs. He is an Arthur F. Burns Fellow at The Washington Post.

quinta-feira, 2 de outubro de 2014

E agora, noticias do mundo surreal: corrupcao e escandalos companheiros - Dom Philips (WP)

An oil scandal in Brazil complicates the race for incumbent president on eve of election


The Washington Post, October 2 at 3:30 AM
 
With just days to go before the presidential election here, a growing scandal has placed a number of issues center stage: They involve corruption, political machinations with the state-controlled oil company, and delays and overspending on a multibillion-dollar oil refinery that Brazil desperately needs.
A high-ranking former executive from Petrobras, the oil company, has just been released from jail to house arrest having turned state’s evidence.
His allegations have appeared in a steady stream in a weekly magazine, Veja — and they link payments in the refinery construction to politicians from incumbent President Dilma Rousseff’s Workers’ Party and other parties in Brazil’s ruling coalition.
The first round of voting takes place Sunday. In a three-way race, Rousseff and Marina Silva are the front-runners, with Rousseff edging ahead, according to polls. Brazilians tend to be cynical about politicians, but the Car Wash scandal reaches deep into the long-standing apparatus constructed by the Workers’ Party, and no one is sure where it will lead.
Rousseff, a former minister of mines and energy and chairwoman of the Petrobras board, takes pride in her management skills. But the image of competence she has constructed is now taking some dents.
The scandal cuts deep in another way: Rousseff’s strength is among Brazil’s working-class voters, but amidst all the alleged overspending and mismanagement associated with the delayed refinery construction, some workers have come to feel badly treated and complain about not getting paid.
Rousseff’s opponents have gone on the attack.
“It’s shameful,” said Aécio Neves, the third candidate in the race, in a television debate on Sunday, as he took aim at Rousseff. “The denunciations don’t cease.”
Millions of dollars were allegedly creamed off inflated contracts for the Abreu e Lima refinery being built near Recife in Northeast Brazil. The refinery is to start operating in November, three years late. Its cost has ballooned.
A second Petrobras refinery project — Comperj, near Rio — is four years behind schedule, double the projected cost and delayed by strikes.
Petrobras eventually paid $1.2 billion for a third refinery in Pasadena, Tex., after a long court battle that ended in 2012, seven years after its previous owners had bought it for just $42.5 million.
Complex scheme
While Brazil’s economy stutters, Petrobras hemorrhages cash importing the fuel Brazil can’t refine but urgently needs. And these enormous refineries have become emblematic of the barriers the country faces in building much-needed infrastructure — barriers created by mismanagement, corruption and overspending.
Prosecutors say the complex Car Wash scheme was run by Paulo Costa, now under house arrest and providing testimony, and money-changer Alberto Youssef, in custody. Police first arrested 28 people in March, having been alerted by “irregular” movements of $4 billion. Brazil’s Federal Court of Accounts has found overpayments of $99.2 million in just four contracts related to Abreu e Lima alone.
Evidence suggests “the possible involvement of various authorities… including federal parliamentarians,” a Supreme Court Judge wrote this week, in approving Costa’s state’s evidence deal.
Neves, the candidate for the Brazilian Social Democratic Party, alleges that Costa’s appointment in 2004 as a key Petrobras manager was political. “The corruption involving the company is much more serious than is being noticed,” a spokesman for Neves said in an e-mail interview.
Brazil’s rumbling economic problems — the country is in technical recession — are also a central theme of this election, and opposition candidates point a finger at falling investment and lack of infrastructure.
“There are people who were involved in the running of the company who are involved in this corruption scandal. That does affect people who are planning to invest in the country,” said Aditya Banerjee, an analyst at a commercial intelligence agency called Wood Mackenzie, in Houston.
Petrobras is keeping its distance from Costa, whose job put him in charge of refining, and who was replaced in 2012. “Petrobras, in the condition of victim, is attending all the requests of the authorities and collaborating with the investigations, as the main interested party in clarifying the facts,” a company representative said in an e-mail interview.
Delays to the Abreu e Lima refinery were “principally for the need to repeat bidding because of excessive prices and delays in the acquisition of critical equipment,” the representative said, and did not comment on the cost increase — from $2.5 billion to $18.5 billion.
“It’s twice as much as any other refinery. Any other refinery would cost around $10 billion. So that’s massive,” Banerjee said. “It’s not just Abreu e Lima, it’s also Comperj.”
The Comperj oil refinery project, being built in Itaboraí near Rio, is due to start operating in 2016. Its budget has doubled to $13.2 billion. Brazil’s Federal Court of Accounts has found overpayments in the tens of millions of dollars.

The delay was caused by an “unsuccessful business model of partnerships,” Petrobras said. “In each investigation process, Petrobras is presenting its defenses and technical clarifications and has been able to demonstrate adherence of its practices to the norms and regulations in force,” a company representative said.
Comperj was paralyzed by a 40-day wildcat strike earlier this year that was blighted by violence. Riot police were called, a union car was set on fire and, on Feb. 6, two workers were shot and injured.
The workers were on strike because they hadn’t been paid by their employer, a subcontractor, for months. Felipe Lima, a 22-year-old carpenter, was struck by two bullets. One went through his right hand; the other burst his pancreas. Rigger Françuelio Fernandes, 20, was shot in the hand and foot.
Speaking by phone from his home state of Ceará, in Brazil’s Northeast, Lima said he lives today on a sickness benefit and a one-time $2,000 payment from the construction-workers’ union. Money is tight. “I can’t work. My instrument of work is my hand,” he said.
Petrobras did not comment on the case as a police matter.
Worrying amount of debt
Money is increasingly tight for the oil company, too. Brazil is heavily reliant on road transport but can’t refine enough fuel to meet its rising domestic demand. Petrobras has to buy gasoline and diesel abroad at high international prices, which it sells at a loss because prices are fixed artificially low by the government to control inflation — currently running above target at 6.6 percent. This cost Petrobras a $1.5 billion loss over the past 12 months, according to figures calculated by the Brazilian Infrastructure Center, a Rio consultancy.
The Brazilian Oil, Gas & Biofuels Institute, IBP, recently called for fuel prices to be freed up. “The closer to international prices, the more they make investments viable,” said IBP president João Carlos de Luca in a phone interview. “Brazil needs refining.”
Rousseff’s opponents blame fuel price policy for hurting Petrobras, the environment and Brazil’s struggling ethanol sector, underpriced by cheap gasoline and diesel.
“We have a serious problem,” said Silva, from the Brazilian Socialist Party. “This is highly prejudicial to our country, and something the government needs to correct now.”
Petrobras’s ambitious development of Brazil’s ultra-deep water reserves, central to a $220.6 billion investment program, have also entered the fray. Rousseff attacked Silva, an environmentalist, as anti-oil.
The enormous costs of developing these reserves, coupled with the losses it incurs importing fuel, has put Petrobras in a worrying amount of debt — $114 billion at the end of 2013, according to Bloomberg.
But Petrobras is increasing production from those deep-water reserves. It promises to be producing 4 million barrels of oil a day, compared to the current 2.6 million.
Then they may finally be able to deal with their debts.
“Until then, we see things being pretty tight financially,” said Ruaraidh Montgomery, a senior analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Dom Phillips is The Post's correspondent in Rio de Janeiro. He has previously written for The Times, Guardian and Sunday Times.

domingo, 20 de julho de 2014

O Banco dos Brics, visto desde Washington - Raj M. Desai, James Raymond Vreeland (WP)

What the new bank of BRICS is all about
By Raj M. Desai and James Raymond Vreeland
The Washington Post, July 17, 2014

Leaders of the BRICS nations, from left, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff, China’s President Xi Jinping and South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma, pose for a group photo during the BRICS summit in Fortaleza, Brazil, Tuesday, July 15, 2014 (Silvia Izquierdo/Associated Press).
As World Cup fever recedes, this week in Fortaleza heads of state from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (the so-called BRICS countries) agreed to establish a New Development Bank (NDB) at their summit meeting. They will have a president (an Indian for the first six years), a Board of Governors Chair (a Russian), a Board of Directors Chair (a Brazilian), and a headquarters (in Shanghai). What is the purpose of this BRICS bank? Why have these countries created it now? And, what implications does it have for the global development-finance landscape?

The “what” is relatively straightforward. The NDB has been given $50 billion in initial capital. As with similar initiatives in other regions (see below), the BRICS bank appears to work on an equal-share voting basis, with each of the five signatories contributing $10 billion. The capital base is to be used to finance infrastructure and “sustainable development” projects in the BRICS countries initially, but other low- and middle-income countries will be able buy in and apply for funding. BRICS countries have also created a $100 billion Contingency Reserve Arrangement (CRA), meant to provide additional liquidity protection to member countries during balance of payments problems. The CRA—unlike the pool of contributed capital to the BRICS bank, which is equally shared—is being funded 41 percent by China, 18 percent from Brazil, India, and Russia, and 5 percent from South Africa.

Next, the “why.” As we have discussed in our research, the rising economic strength of the BRICS countries has outpaced increases in their voice at the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). South-South economic cooperation has expanded dramatically in recent years. Brazil now has more embassies in Africa than does the United Kingdom. China has become Africa’s most important trading partner. The value of South-South trade now exceeds North-South trade by some $2.2 trillion—over one-quarter of global trade. Low-income countries have also seen unprecedented growth in “South–South” foreign aid—with China, Brazil, and India all becoming larger donors. So, these BRICS institutions are partly just the result of a two-decades long process of greater economic engagement by and among developing nations.


In the meantime, long-standing dissatisfaction with Bretton-Woods institutions has also pushed BRICS towards a developing-country alternative to global development finance. We have seen this before. In the late 1960s, Andean nations created the Corporación Andina de Fomento (CAF), also known as the “Development Bank of Latin America,” as a way of bypassing the stringent rules imposed by the World Bank on infrastructure loans. In the early 2000s, partly as a reaction to a widely perceived failure of the IMF to stop currency speculation during the Asian Crisis, 10 ASEA nations plus China, South Korea, Japan established a network of bilateral currency swap agreements that would become he Chiang Mai Initiative. In 2009 seven Latin American countries signed an agreement to establish the “Bank of the South” or BancoSur to fund regional development and social protection, and in which each member nation would have one vote. Both of these latter efforts were launched, in part, as a response to the Bretton-Woods enforcement of conditions on countries seeking emergency loans. So it is with the NDB and the CRA; said the official statement, “International governance structures designed within a different power configuration show increasingly evident signs of losing legitimacy and effectiveness.”

Although the BRICS comprise over one-fifth of the global economy, together they wield about 11 percent of the votes at the IMF. But reform to the governance of the Bretton-Woods institutions has encountered a number of roadblocks. In 2008 and again in 2010, quota reform at the IMF was intended to double total financial commitments from all member countries, while at the same time giving BRICS countries larger voting shares. Because this required additional contributions by member governments of richer countries, several balked for different reasons.

Smaller European countries, whose quota shares would be reduced by the changes, opposed quota reform on the grounds that their contributions to total official development assistance would be undermined if their voting strength were diminished at the IMF. In the United States—whose shares would not be reduced by quota reform—the Congress failed to approve increased capital contributions to the IMF. In the one recent effort to pass quota reform, Democrats in the House of Representatives tried to sneak an amendment into a loan guarantee for Ukraine that would have authorized the increased quota, but then withdrew the amendment, bowing to Republican opposition. Thus, the one time the Congress has considered IMF quota reform has been as a rider in an unrelated bill.

These developments show the political tightrope on which countries must walk when it comes to global development finance:  while low- and middle-income countries have legitimate claims about their exclusion from the governance of the Bretton-Woods institutions, richer countries cannot cede too much influence over these institutions to developing nations and still justify large contributions—in particular, to the World Bank’s International Development Association every three years, and to the IMF as part of quota reforms—to their restless voters, especially during difficult economic times.


What are the implications of the BRICS institutions for international development finance? Developing nations hope that BRICS bank/CRA may eventually challenge World Bank-IMF hegemony over matters such as:  funding for basic services, emergency assistance, policy lending, and funding to conflict-affected states. The World Bank’s own estimates point to a $1 trillion infrastructure investment “gap” in developing countries. Existing multilateral development banks are able to fill approximately 40 percent of that gap. So, the fact that a BRICS bank aims to make electricity, transport, telecommunications, and water/sewage a priority is important; the demand for infrastructure is expected to grow sharply as more countries transition out of low-income status. In terms of scale, it has been suggested that—after a couple of decades, should membership be expanded, and should co-financing by governments and private investors be mobilized—that BRICS Bank loans could dwarf World Bank loans. This type of success has been seen with the CAF, which now funds more infrastructure in Latin America than the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank combined.

Whether the BRICS institutions go the way of the more successful CAF on the one hand, or the way of the as yet unutilized Chiang-Mai Initiative or BancoSur on the other, will ultimately depend on two other factors:  risk management and coordination.

Presumably a BRICS bank and reserve fund will need to ensure a high-quality loan portfolio that maximizes developmental impact, but keeps defaults to a minimum (for expanding the scale of lending operations, it would also be important to make profits on its loans). And so the problem of surveillance will have to be tackled. Unfortunately, the track record of regional initiatives on surveillance does not bode well. The Chiang Mai Initiative, for example, was simply unable to devise and implement a system of monitoring and surveillance, and eventually resigned itself to requiring countries using its credit lines to undergo surveillance by the IMF! The result:  not a single Asian nation has used credit through the initiative.

Meanwhile, given the abundance of evidence that multilateral economic initiatives work best when their principal stakeholders are able to resolve coordination problems, the possibility of serious intra-BRICS disagreements could prevent these new institutions from operating at capacity. Hugo Chavez’s dream of BancoSur supplanting both the World Bank and IMF in Latin America foundered on a series of disagreements on issues such as:  the bank’s tax-free status, the role of concessional finance, relationships with the private sector, transparency rules, and the need for environmental safeguards.

The structural disparity between China and the rest of the BRICS members (the Chinese economy being larger than the economies of all other BRICS combined) is at the heart of the matter for any BRICS institution. China’s dominant position makes coordination—in terms of operations and funding priorities—difficult to imagine. At one point, all other BRICS countries have expressed concern with Beijing’s economic policies and currency regime. Brazilian and Indian central bankers spoke out against the undervalued Yuan in 2009 and 2010, but to little effect. Ongoing trade disputes among developing countries also threaten unity. Last year WTO member states reached a deal on trade facilitation in Bali but India, among a group of developing nations, has threatened to withdraw support for the protocol over the issue of food security. A joint communiqué of BRICS trade ministers remains vague about whether BRICS countries commonly support the Bali agreement. These, along with a host of other intra-BRICS disputes, could limit the effectiveness of the NDB/CRA. For now, they seem to have been papered over amid the excitement surrounding the Fortaleza agreements. But they will, ultimately, determine whether the developing world has finally found a viable alternative to Bretton Woods.

Raj M. Desai is Associate Professor of International Development at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and in the Department of Government at Georgetown University, and a Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. James Vreeland is Associate Professor of International Development at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and in the Department of Government at Georgetown University.

quarta-feira, 9 de julho de 2014

Ironias da vida: autor de um guia de sobrevivencia aos touros de Pamplona foi chifrado por um touro de Pamplona...

São dessas coisas que acontecem, algo como se o autor de um livro sobre como ficar rico facilmente, consegue ir à falência em menos de três investimentos...
Esta entra na categoria das histórias deliciosas... sobre as desgraças alheias...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida 

Author of “How to Survive the Bulls of Pamplona” gets gored by bull at Pamplona — but is it irony?

  
The Washington Post, July 9 at 1:31 PM  
By now you must have heard the news.
Bill Hillmann — yes, the man who helped write “Fiesta: How to Survive the Bulls of Pamplona” — just got gored by a bull at Pamplona.
So, how good a guide was it? It was an eBook that went on for pages and pages, when a simple “Don’t run with the bulls at Pamplona” would have sufficed. Ernest Hemingway’s grandson also contributed to the book. AsGawker notes, “Hemingway is the grandson of Ernest ‘Big Papa’ Hemingway, whose book The Sun Also Rises popularized the old-world ritual among adrenalin-addicted manly English-speakers.”
I have taken the liberty of making some edits to the book.
Where they write, “I asked his grandson, John Hemingway, about this [Ernest Hemingway's own 'goring'] and got the following pithy response: Well excuse the pun, but I think there was a lot of bull in my grandfather’s dispatches to Toronto in the ’20s.” I have left it intact. That part is great.
I have gone through the rest of the book with a red pen and replaced most of the advice with a simple series of steps.
1. So, you want to run with the bulls in Pamplona, do you? Like “Papa” did? Great! It is good to have hopes and dreams and bucket-list items. Bucket-list items are most useful when you are really sick or in danger. They give you something to think about and live for. “No,” you say, clinging tighter to the edge of that ledge, “I can’t let go now. I haven’t run with the bulls at Pamplona yet. It has always been my dream to run with the bulls at Pamplona.” The only danger is that if you make it back onto the ledge, you might actually go out and put this dream into practice. That is no good! If you do it, you will have nothing left to live for. And you will inevitably be disappointed and surrounded by people who smell, as one of the book’s author’s puts it, “of urine, alcohol, and vomit. . . . The one thing they do not stink of is fear. Fear itself has no smell, despite what the novelists say.” Sure. Besides, you might get hurt. The point is: Cherish this dream from the comfort of your home.

segunda-feira, 7 de julho de 2014

Ironias da Historia: nazistas retrataram um bebe judeu como perfeito representante da raca ariana...

Os nazistas foram perfeitos criminosos, seres indignos da Alemanha, ou simplesmente da "raça" humana.
Eles o foram por preconceito, aliás debilóide, estúpido, ignorante no mais alto grau, ao pretenderem dividir a humanidade em raças, muito embora certa ciência do século 19 também afirmasse a existência de raças.
Até aí, seria apenas preconceito. Mas os nazistas foram além: pretenderam escravizar "raças inferiores" e exterminar uma raça em especial, além de várias outras categorias de seres humanos que eles julgavam indignos de continuar vivendo.
Mao Tsé-tung e Stalin mataram muito mais, infinitamente mais, do que Hitler, inclusive aliados e supostos inimigos de classe, e por diversas outras motivações, mas eles o fizeram contra o seu próprio povo, em nome de projetos de engenharia social e atendendo a uma ideologia violenta, como é o marxismo e sua teoria da luta de classes.
Mas só Hitler, como poucos na história da humanidade, pretendeu eliminar radicalmente todo um povo, ou mesmo mais de um povo, talvez uma civilização inteira, como eram os judeus europeus. Foi um monstro, sem dúvida.
O fato de que os nazistas estúpidos tenham sido enganados por um dos representantes de um povo submetido é altamente irônico, mas demonstra, mais uma vez, como são falhos os julgamentos humanos baseados nas aparências.
Os companheiros petistas, e os militantes da causa negra, estão cometendo mais um crime racial no Brasil, felizmente sem exterminação. Mas eles também dividem a sociedade em afrodescendentes e todo o resto, o que é um racismo estúpido e criminoso contra a história do Brasil. Fica sendo uma das heranças malditas dos companheiros, junto com os racistas da causa afrodescendente, que terá de ser superada mais adiante.
Por enquanto fiquem com esta boa história num dos blogs do Washington Post.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
The ‘perfect Aryan’ child used in Nazi propaganda was actually Jewish
Morning Mix, July 7 at 5:12 AM
The newlyweds came to Berlin as students, a pair of Latvian Jews who wanted to make it big in singing. In 1934, just after Adolf Hitler took control of Germany, the young Jewish woman became pregnant with a child who would soon become known as the “perfect Aryan.”
The photo was everywhere. It first adorned a Nazi magazine that held a beauty contest to find “the perfect Aryan” and then was later splashed across postcards and storefronts.

Image excerpted from the video testimony of Hessy Taft. (Courtesy of USC Shoah Foundation)

Less well-known, however, was the fact that the “Aryan” girl was actually Jewish.
As remarkable as that revelation is, more remarkable is the story that accompanies it. The girl, now 80 and named Hessy Levinsons Taft, recently presented the magazine cover, emblazoned with her baby photo, to the Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial in Israel and offered her tale to the German newspaper Bild. But the extended version of what happened is found in anoral history she gave to the United States Holocaust Museum in 1990.
It begins in 1928 when her parents came to Berlin. Both were singers. The father, Jacob Levinsons, crooned a chocolate-smooth baritone. His wife, Pauline Levinsons, had studied at the renowned Riga Conservatory in Latvia.
Jacob had accepted a position at a local opera house and taken the stage name of Yasha Lenssen, his daughter recalled in the lengthy interview with the Holocaust Museum. It was the time of surging anti-Semitism in Berlin, and when “they found out that his name really was Levinsons,” she said, “they decided to cancel his contract.”
“Without any money” and living in a “very, very cramped one-room” apartment, the young couple gave birth to Hessy Levinsons on May 17, 1934. She was beautiful. So when she was 6 months old, the parents decided to have her picture taken. “My mother took me to a photographer,” she told the museum. “One of the best in Berlin! And he did — he made a very beautiful picture — which my parents thought was very beautiful.”
They liked it so much, they framed it and propped it up on the piano her father had given her mother as a present after Hessy was born. They had thought the picture was a private family photo. But soon after, a woman who helped clean the apartment arrived to deliver some surprising news.
“‘You know,’” the woman said, “‘I saw Hessy on a magazine cover in town.’”
Hessy’s mother found that impossible to believe. A lot of babies look the same, the mother explained, and surely the helper was mistaken. But she wasn’t.
“‘No, no, no, no,’” the helperexplained to Taft’s mother. “It’s definitely Hessy. It’s this picture. Just give me some money, and I’ll get you the magazine.”
Money changed hands, and the helper soon returned with a magazine. A headline that said “the Sun in the Home” stretched across the top with the same picture that was there, resting on the piano. “The magazine was published out of Leipzig [in central Germany] and was very definitely one of the few magazines allowed to circulate at the time,” Taft said in the oral history, “because it was a Nazi magazine.” She said the pages brimmed with images of “men wearing swastikas” and even one of Hitler himself “reviewing the troops.”
The parents were terrified. Why was their Jewish infant on the cover of a Nazi magazine lauding Hitler’s exploits?
They contacted the photographer, according to Hessy’s account. “‘What is this?’” the daughter says her mother asked. “‘How did this happen?’”
The photographer told her to quiet down. “‘I will tell you the following,’” the story went. “‘I was asked to submit my 10 best pictures for a beauty contest run by the Nazis. So were 10 other outstanding photographers in Germany. So 10 photographers submitted their 10 best pictures. And I sent in your baby’s picture.’”
“‘But you knew that this is a Jewish child,’” the mother exclaimed.
“‘Yes,’” he said, explaining there had been a competition to find the “‘perfect example of the Aryan race to further Nazi philosophy…. I wanted to allow myself the pleasure of this joke. And you see, I was right. Of all the babies, they picked this baby as the perfect Aryan.’”
Family stories are always prone to hyperbole, distortion and exaggeration — but this appears to be true. Taft has reams of photographs that show her in numerous publications and cards. “I can laugh about it now,” the Telegraph quotes Taft, now a chemistry professor at St. John’s University in New York, as saying. “But if the Nazis had known who I really was, I wouldn’t be alive.”
The parents were equally shocked and “amazed at the irony of it all.” In the weeks afterward, the picture was everywhere. It was in storefront windows, in advertisements and on postcards. One time, Taft says her aunt went to the store to buy a birthday card for her first birthday in May of 1935 only to find a card with Taft’s baby picture on it. “My aunt didn’t say another word, but she bought the postcard which my parents brought with them throughout the years.”
Eventually, the family fled Europe and found refuge in Cuba for years before immigrating to the United States in the late 1940s and settling in New York City. Hessy Levinsons got married and became Hessy Taft. But the father stayed behind in Havana to operate a business, which eventually foundered under the rise of Fidel Castro. “He always said, ‘I have survived Hitler; I will survive Castro,’” Taft said. “And he did. He did.”

Terrence McCoy is a foreign affairs writer at the Washington Post. He served in the U.S. Peace Corps in Cambodia and studied international politics at Columbia University. Follow him on Twitter here.

domingo, 18 de maio de 2014

USA: The Great Society at Fifty, a historical reappraisal, by Karen Tumulty (The Washington Post)

The Great Society at 50
LBJ’s unprecedented and ambitious domestic vision changed the nation. Half a century later, it continues to define politics and power in America.
Written by Karen Tumulty
The Washington Post, May 17, 2014


President Lyndon B. Johnson launched the most ambitious set of social programs ever undertaken in the United States. In just a few years, Congress churned out nearly 200 new laws. The "Great Society," as the effort became known, also launched a decades-long political battle that still rages over the size and role of the federal government. This is the first of four stories examining the legacy of the "Great Society". 

One day shortly after starting his new job as presidential adviser and speechwriter, Richard N. Goodwin was summoned to see the boss. Not to the Oval Office, but to the White House swimming pool, where Lyndon B. Johnson often went to ruminate.
Goodwin found the leader of the free world naked, doing a languorous sidestroke. Johnson invited him and top aide Bill Moyers to doff their own clothes: “Come on in, boys. It’ll do you good.”
It was an unorthodox manner of conducting official business. As they bobbed in the tepid water, the president “began to talk as if he were addressing some larger, imagined audience of the mind,” Goodwin later wrote in his memoir.
The 32-year-old speechwriter forgot his chagrin as he was drawn by “the powerful flow of Johnson’s will, exhorting, explaining, trying to tell me something about himself, seeking not agreement — he knew he had that — butbelief.”
This happened in early April 1964, just a little more than four months after a tragedy in Dallas had made Johnson the 36th president of the United States.
“I never thought I’d have the power,” Johnson told Goodwin and Moyers. “I wanted power to use it. And I’m going to use it.”
 “We’ve got to use the Kennedy program as a springboard to take on the Congress, summon the states to new heights, create a Johnson program, different in tone, fighting and aggressive,” he said. “Hell, we’ve barely begun to solve our problems. And we can do it all.”
Johnson’s vision would come to be known as the Great Society — the most ambitious effort ever to test what American government is capable of achieving. And in doing so, to discover what it is not.
In laying it out, LBJ even set out a specific time frame for it to come to fruition — 50 years, a mark that will be reached on Thursday. Johnson launched his program with a University of Michigan commencement address, delivered on the clear, humid morning of May 22, 1964, in Ann Arbor.
Today, the laws enacted between 1964 and 1968 are woven into the fabric of American life, in ways big and small. They have knocked down racial barriers, provided health care for the elderly and food for the poor, sustained orchestras and museums in cities across the country, put seat belts and padded dashboards in every automobile, garnished Connecticut Avenue in Northwest Washington with red oaks.
“We are living in Lyndon Johnson’s America,” said Joseph A. Califano Jr., who was LBJ’s top domestic policy adviser from 1965 through the end of his presidency. “This country is more the country of Lyndon Johnson than any other president.”
The backlash against the Great Society has been as enduring as its successes.
Virtually every political battle that rages today has roots in the federal expansion and experimentation that began in the 1960s. It set terms of engagement for ideological warfare over how to grapple with income inequality, whether to encourage a common curriculum in schools, affirmative action, immigration, even whether to strip federal funding for National Public Radio. (Yes, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting is another Great Society program.)
Many Great Society programs are now so popular it is hard to imagine the country as we know it without them. Others — including some of its more grandiose urban renewal efforts — are generally regarded as failures. Poverty remains with us, with the two parties in deep disagreement over whether government has alleviated it or made it harder to escape.
When Johnson spoke that day in Michigan, before a crowd of 70,000, the country was enjoying unprecedented affluence.
So he beckoned Americans to consider what they could do with their riches, to imagine ahead — to today — a time that many who heard his words have lived to see.
“The challenge of the next half-century is whether we have the wisdom to use that wealth to enrich and elevate our national life and to advance the quality of our American civilization,” the president said. “Your imagination and your initiative and your indignation will determine whether we build a society where progress is the servant of our needs or a society where old values and new visions are buried under unbridled growth. For in your time, we have the opportunity to move not only toward the rich society and the powerful society but upward to the Great Society.”
The import of that pronouncement was lost on the graduates of the Michigan Class of 1964. Their college years had been framed by the thrill of John F. Kennedy’s election when they were freshman and the heartbreak of his death when they were seniors. They graduated six months to the day after his assassination; their speaker was a stand-in for the president they had originally invited.
Undergraduate student-body president Roger Lowenstein sat onstage behind Johnson. When he saw the words “GREAT SOCIETY” roll by on the teleprompter — in his recollection, the phrase was underlined and written in big letters — Lowenstein snickered with Michigan Daily newspaper editor Ron Wilton, who was next to him.
“It did sound corny, and it wasn’t catchy,” said Lowenstein, who went on to become an attorney, then write for the hit TV show “L.A. Law,” and now runs a charter school in Los Angeles.
“We were just typical 21-year-old wise guys,” he said, “with complete ignorance that history was happening in front of us.”
Goodwin still has his first draft of the Great Society speech. For decades, it was boxed away in the Concord, Mass., home he shares with his wife, the historian and author Doris Kearns Goodwin.
Settled in a comfortable chair in his study, Dick Goodwin pulled eight typewritten pages from a folder. They show a work in progress: notes penciled in the margins, phrases underlined for emphasis, entire paragraphs scratched out.
“He knew his ambitions,” Goodwin said of Johnson. “When I first drafted that speech, somebody else on the staff took it upon himself to redo it so it became just another anti-poverty speech. In fact, it was rewritten. I went in to see Johnson. This was intended to be much more than anti-poverty. It was a grand master plan. Johnson had it changed back to what it had been.”
The transformation
LBJ’s brand of government activism was inspired by his idol, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and the New Deal of his Depression-era youth. (At 26, he had run FDR’s National Youth Administration work and training program in Texas.)
But the reach of Johnson’s Great Society was broader, its premise even more idealistic.
“Roosevelt did not set out to start a revolution in this country. He was trying to put out the fire” of an economic catastrophe, said political scientist Norman J. Ornstein, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. “Coming at a time of prosperity, Johnson really was looking for a way to transform America.”
LBJ prodded the 89th Congress , which was seated from January 1965 to January 1967, to churn out nearly 200 major bills. It is regarded by many as the most productive legislative body in American history — and the starkest contrast imaginable to the Capitol Hill paralysis of today.
In the space of a few years came an avalanche of new laws, many of which were part of LBJ’sWar on Poverty: Civil rights protections. Medicare and Medicaid. Food stamps. Urban renewal. The first broad federal investment in elementary and high school education. Head Start and college aid. An end to what was essentially a whites-only immigration policy. Landmark consumer safety and environmental regulations. Funding that gave voice to community action groups.

Before the 1965 passage of the Voting Rights Act, which sought to bring blacks to the polls, there were believed to be about 300 African American elected officials in this country. By 1970, there were 1,469. As of 2011, there were more than 10,500, according to the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.
One of them sits in the Oval Office.
Critics said some of the Great Society programs perpetuated the problems they aimed to solve, stirred social discontent and worked mostly to the benefit of the massive, intractable bureaucracies they created.
Enormous sums were spent on ideas that had never been tested outside of social-science theory, and some proved unworkable in the real world.
The Model Cities program, for instance, was shut down in 1974. Dick Lee, the slum-clearing mayor New Haven, Conn., who had overseen one of the most ambitious of the federally financed initiatives, once said, “If New Haven is a model city, God help America’s cities.”
The Office of Economic Opportunity, which ran the War on Poverty, was abolished in 1981.
“We were coming up with programs so fast, even Johnson could barely remember what he proposed,” Goodwin said.
Disillusionment gained force as the Vietnam War sapped Johnson of his political capital and his moral authority, and squeezed his budget.
In a 1978 book, Henry Aaron of the Brookings Institution wrote that the speed and intensity with which the country shifted gears “is unique in American political history.”
Johnson was acutely aware of that. “He was conscious of how limited time there was to get things done,” Califano said, “and how he was spending capital all the time.”
LBJ was elected in 1964 with what was then the biggest landslide in U.S. history. Just two years later in the midterm contests, his party lost three seats in the Senate, 47 in the House and eight governorships. Republicans would win five of the next six presidential elections.
Among those presidents was Ronald Reagan, who memorably said that the United States had waged a war on poverty and poverty won.
Reagan wrote in his diary on Jan. 28, 1982: “The press is dying to paint me as now trying to undo the New Deal. I remind them I voted for F.D.R. 4 times. I’m trying to undo the ‘Great Society.’ It was L.B.J.’s war on poverty that led to our present mess.”
The irony, of course, is that while Reagan and other presidents tried to eradicate Great Society programs, nearly all survived in some form, and spending on them continued to rise. The federal government has grown even larger — more than five times as big as it was in 1960, in real dollars — while public faith in it stands near all-time lows.
“That’s the paradox of the Great Society,” said Peter Berkowitz, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s conservative Hoover Institution. “It has never been more entrenched.”
The right time
The debate over the proper size and role of the federal government is a distinctly American one. In no other country has that question been argued for so long and with such intensity, going all the way back to Alexander Hamilton (who wanted a powerful central authority) and Thomas Jefferson (who feared one).
But there have also been eras when the country has opened its arms to a more expansive, muscular Washington. Sometimes, it has been because of a thirst for reform, as happened during the progressive movement of the early 20th century. At others, because the problems are so dire, as was the case with the New Deal in the 1930s.
LBJ recognized that, in the early 1960s, another set of atmospheric forces was building a storm system for government activism.
The economy was booming, ginned up by a big tax cut. America was mourning a slain president who had ignited its idealism. The civil rights movement had awakened its conscience. The nation was led by a president of unmatched legislative skills. And confidence in Washington was as high as pollsters have ever seen it.
Back then, when Americans were asked how often they trusted the federal government to do what is right, nearly 80 percent said just about always or most of the time, according to data compiled by the Pew Research Center.
That confidence would begin to erode dramatically in the mid-1960s as Vietnam and social disruption surrounding the Great Society shook Americans’ faith in the government that had brought them through the Depression and World War II.
By the end of 1966, their favorable view of Washington had declined sharply, to 65 percent — and it had a lot farther to go. It stood at 19 percent after last year’s government shutdown.
Yale Law School emeritus professor Peter Schuck, who was an official at the Department of Health, Education and Welfare during the Jimmy Carter administration, argues that the extension of the government’s reach and ambitions has deepened public cynicism.
“In short, the public views the federal government as a chronically clumsy, ineffectual, bloated giant that cannot be counted upon to do the right thing, much less do it well,” Schuck wrote in his new book, “Why Government Fails So Often.” “It does not seem to matter much to them whether the government that fails them is liberal or conservative, or how earnestly our leaders promise to remedy these failures.”
The Great Society promised too much. Sargent Shriver, whom LBJ put in charge of the War on Poverty, said that “ending poverty in this land” was actually achievable by 1976.
Decades later, Shriver reflected on why such a righteous undertaking should have become so reviled. One reason was the explosion of disorder, even riots, that followed.
“We weren’t quite prepared for the bitterness and the antagonism and the violence — in some cases, the emotional outbursts — that accompanied an effort to alleviate poverty,” Shriver told Michael Gillette, director of the LBJ Presidential Library’s oral-history program.
“There were an awful lot of people, both white and black, who had generations of pent-up feelings,” Shriver said. “. . . The placid life of most middle-class Americans was stunned, shocked, by all this social explosion, and then a lot of fear came into the hearts and minds of a lot of middle-class people — not only fear, but then real hostility.”
“There were an awful lot of people, both white and black, who had generations of pent-up feelings. . . . The placid life of most middle-class Americans was stunned, shocked, by all this social explosion, and then a lot of fear came into the hearts and minds of a lot of middle-class people — not only fear, but then real hostility.”
Liberals and conservatives disagree on why the War on Poverty fell short — whether it was abandoned or was destined to fail from the start.
“Government has crowded out civil society in many ways, inadvertently,” said House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.). “. . . The federal government has a very important role to play here. I’m not suggesting they don’t. But it needs to be a supporting role, not a commanding role, not a displacing role.”
In the past few years, the plight of those on the bottom has gotten new attention as the country has struggled to reach escape velocity from its latest recession. The disparity between the rich and the poor has grown.
Ryan, who was on the 2012 GOP presidential ticket as Mitt Romney’s running mate, said his committee did a yearlong study of federal anti-poverty initiatives and discovered that Washington is spending $800 billion on nearly 100 programs, with no accountability for results.
In March, Ryan’s committee issued a reportnoting that the official poverty rate in 2012 was 15 percent, just a couple of points lower than where it stood in 1965.
But the president’s Council of Economic Advisers uses a broader measure — including tax credits and benefits such as food assistance — that estimates that poverty has dropped by more than a third, from more than 25 percent of the population in the mid-1960s to 16 percent in 2012.
So who is right?
“Economists always argue over the ‘counterfactual’ outcome,” said Austin Nichols, senior research associate at the Urban Institute’s Income and Benefits Policy Center. “You don’t know what things would have looked like if the programs hadn’t existed, and how many external factors there are, like economic growth.”
“It’s even harder with the Great Society programs, since a lot of them were constantly being modified,” he added.
For instance, Nichols noted in a recent blog post, federal spending on food stamps “mushroomed in size in the 2000s as it was called on to replace shrinking cash welfare programs.”
For some, the Great Society clearly made life better. In 1964, despite Social Security, more than one out of three Americans over 65 were living below the poverty line, in no small part because of their medical bills. (Forty-four percent had no coverage.) Today, with Medicare available, fewer than one out of seven do.
“These endeavors didn’t just make us a better country,” President Obama said earlier this year. “They reaffirmed that we are a great country.”

The Great Society did not just seek to redistribute wealth.
Johnson also set out to shift power in America — from states to Washington, from the legislative branch to the executive, from corporations to federal regulators, from big-city political machines to community groups.
That latter concept of “community action” — funding residents of poor communities so they could organize and mobilize — was one of the Great Society’s most controversial ideas. The concept was to put the poor in a position to help themselves, but it frequently played out in tense and even violent confrontations with the existing local power structure.
It also created a new generation of up-and-coming leaders, rising from the ranks of those who had previously been disenfranchised.
“My mother was clearly the person Lyndon Johnson had in mind with civic action, and she took full advantage of that,” said Ron Kirk, the former mayor of Dallas who served as U.S. trade representative in the Obama administration.
Willie Mae Kirk, who died in September, became a renowned community organizer whose victories included stopping the city of Austin from shutting down its only library branch in a black neighborhood. (One there now is named for her.)
“Part of President Johnson’s absolute genius was putting in place a mechanism that said: ‘You know what? You’re not going to have to be dependent on these, in many cases, biased political bodies,’ ” her son said. “They wouldn’t pay you lip service, give you an audience, much less put power in the hands of the people.”
For others, the Great Society opened up horizons, as well as opportunities.
When Rodney Ellis was 17, a Great Society program gave him a summer job in a hospital.
“It let me know I could do something other than what my dad did,” Ellis said. “My dad was a yard man.”
He became a slide-rule-team star as part of the Houston’s Inner-City Leadership Development Program — part of Model Cities. At 29, he was elected to the Houston City Council, taking a seat that was created because of the Voting Rights Act. Ellis is now a Texas state senator.
“All of the things that we aspire for in our country really ended up being implemented to some extent in the Great Society,” Ellis said.
Yet in his final years, Johnson mourned what was becoming of his domestic legacy.
“I figured when my legislative program passed the Congress that the Great Society had a real chance to grow into a beautiful woman,” Johnson told biographer Doris Kearns in 1971. “I figured she’d be so big and beautiful that the American people couldn’t help but fall in love with her, and once they did, they’d want to keep her around forever, making her a permanent part of American life, more permanent even than the New Deal.”
“It’s a terrible thing for me to sit by and watch someone else starve my Great Society to death,” Johnson said. “Soon she’ll be so ugly that the American people will refuse to look at her; they’ll stick her in a closet to hide her away and there she’ll die.”
The legacy
With 50 years’ perspective, there are things that liberals and conservatives agree the Great Society got right, including some that were politically costly in their day.
After signing the Civil Rights Act of 1964, Johnson gloomily observed to Moyers, “I think we just delivered the South to the Republican Party for a long time to come.”
Few now, however, would dispute that it was a good thing to remove barriers to racial equality — or that government dictate was the only way to do it.
“The anti-discrimination laws that were passed in the 1960s have probably done more to reduce economic inequality than have government programs,” said Diana Furchtgott-Roth, who was the Labor Department’s chief economist during the George W. Bush administration and who is now a senior fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute for Policy Research.
In addition to tackling the oldest problems, the Great Society took the federal government into realms where it had never gone before.
Chief among them was education. Until the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965, Washington had never provided comprehensive funding for education below the college level. Its aid to college students was largely limited to helping veterans through the GI Bill.
Where the federal government spent less than $150 per elementary and high school student in 1960, in inflation-adjusted dollars, the figure by 2011 had reached about $1,600. In 2008, more than 64 percent of undergraduates on college campuses were receiving federal financial assistance of some kind.
The federal role “has remained controversial to this day,” said Margaret Spellings, education secretary under Bush, whose No Child Left Behind initiative attempted to hold schools more accountable for student achievement.
In the Great Society, “what succeeded is resourcing around poor, minority and disadvantaged students, an acknowledgment that there was a role for the federal government to level the playing field,” Spellings said. “. . . What I think has not worked is thinking that that was enough, that just that input would do the job. That’s why things like accountability and No Child Left Behind — fast-forward 40 years — were important, to deliver on the promise.”
Yet the political battle over the Common Core — a set of achievement standards developed by governors and encouraged by the Obama administration — is the latest example of the tension that arises when the federal government puts its finger on the scale in education. Criticism of the Common Core has come from an diverse chorus that includes tea party activists and teachers unions.
Some of the Great Society’s biggest accomplishments are rarely acknowledged today. For instance, the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 scrapped a 1920s-era quota system that had effectively shut out most of the world, except for blond, blue-eyed Western Europe.
The 1965 law inviting in Africans, Latin Americans and Asians “was in some ways the most important determinant of our ethnic composition,” said Schuck, who taught immigration law and policy at Yale Law School.
Other Great Society initiatives are being whittled away. In 2013, the Supreme Court struck down a key part of the Voting Rights Act, saying that some of its restrictions are outdated, in light of the racial progress that has been made.
And last month, the court upheld Michigan’s constitutional amendment banning affirmative action in college admissions — a blow to another Great Society program that some believe has outlived its usefulness. (Johnson himself thought of affirmative action as a limited, temporary measure, necessary for only a generation or so, Califano said.) Since the ban passed in 2006, black enrollment at the University of Michigan has dropped by a third.
For Gwendolyn Calvert Baker, there was a poignancy in that court decision.
She had been sitting near the front of her 1964 University of Michigan graduating class when Johnson delivered his Great Society speech.
Baker would have been easy to spot in that sea of caps and gowns. She was older than most of the students, a mom who had returned to college on a Rotary Club scholarship. And she was one of only about 200 African Americans on Michigan’s campus of nearly 28,000 students.
Baker got her PhD in 1972, joined the Michigan faculty as an education professor, and went on to run the University of Michigan affirmative-action program that in more recent years came under court challenge.
“The content of that speech, I really can’t say I remember a lot of it,” said Baker, who is now retired and living in Florida. “But it had meaning. I was feeling good that he was at least thinking in some of the ways I had been thinking.”
A half-century later, Baker said, she is pretty sure she knows what LBJ would think of how it all turned out.
“He would say we’ve come a long way, but we’ve still got a long way to go.”

Alice Crites contributed to this report.