O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

Mostrando postagens com marcador investment. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador investment. Mostrar todas as postagens

segunda-feira, 2 de novembro de 2015

G20 Investment Measures: a report by Unctad and OECD, Ocotber30, 2015

Dear Members of the World Investment Network,

It is my pleasure to share with you the fourteenth UNCTAD-OECD Report on G-20 Investment Measures.

The report indicates that G-20 members have refrained from raising new barriers to investment as reiterated in their commitment at the Brisbane summit in 2014.

Almost all of the investment policy changes introduced by G-20 members between mid-May 2015 and mid-October 2015 enhanced openness for international investment, the joint report finds. The findings were prepared by UNCTAD and the OECD and are part of a wider report on trade and investment measures in the G-20 issued periodically by UNCTAD, the OECD and the WTO. 

The joint report confirms the long term trend since the monitoring of G-20 policy measures began in 2009; expressed in numbers, well over 80% of newly taken measures specific to foreign direct investment were liberalizing in nature. Beyond their commitment to standstill, the report invites G-20 Leaders to consider ways and means to effectively promote investment to boost global economic growth, trade, employment and sustainable development. There is a need for G-20 collective leadership in this regard.

According to the Report, during the reporting period the following measures were adopted:
Three G-20 members - P.R. China, India and Saudi Arabia - amended their investment-specific policies.
One G-20 member - P.R. China - amended its investment policy related to national security.
Nine G-20 members - Australia, Brazil, Canada, P.R. China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, the Russian Federation and Turkey - concluded three bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and six other international investment agreements ("other IIAs").
One G-20 member - Indonesia - sent notices of termination for two of its BITs.
Previous reports and detailed information on investment policy changes can be downloaded from UNCTAD's databases on the Investment Policy Hub including the Investment Policy Monitor Database and the IIA Navigator.

I hope that you find our Report on G-20 Investment Measures useful and interesting - please feel free to also share it with your colleagues!

With kind regards,

James Zhan
Director
Investment & Enterprise Division
United Nations Conference on Trade & Development
Palais des Nations, Geneva
Tel: +41 22 917 5797

 
Fourteenth Report on G20 Investment Measures 
OECD-UNCTAD, October 30, 2015
As the global financial crisis brokes even years ago, G20 Leaders committed to resisting protectionism in all its forms at their 2008 Summit in Washington. At their subsequent summits in London, Pittsburgh, Toronto, Seoul, Cannes, Los Cabos, St Petersburg and Brisbane, they reaffirmed their pledge and called on WTO, OECD, and UNCTAD to monitor and publicly report on their trade and investment policy measures. 
The present document is the fourteenth report on investment and investment-related measures made in response to this call. It has been prepared jointly by the OECD and UNCTAD Secretariats and covers investment policy and investment-related measures taken between 16 May 2015 and 15 October 2015.

terça-feira, 28 de janeiro de 2014

Global investment trends - Unctad, January 2014

World Investment Network (WIN)

The key message: Global FDI rose by 11%; developed economies are trapped in a historically low share. 

·        Global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows rose by 11% in 2013, to an estimated US$1.46 trillion – a level comparable to the pre-crisis average – reaching the upper range of UNCTAD's forecast. 

·        FDI flows to developed countries remained at a historically low share of global total FDI flows (39%) for the second consecutive year. They increased by 12% to US$576 billion, but only to 44% of their peak value in 2007. FDI to the European Union (EU) increased, while flows to the United States continued their decline. 

·        FDI flows to developing economies reached a new high of US$759 billion, accounting for 52% of global FDI inflows in 2013. At the regional level, flows to Latin America and the Caribbean, and Africa were up; developing Asia, with its flows at a level similar to 2012, remained the largest host region in the world. 

·        FDI inflows to transition economies also recorded a new high of US$126 billion – 45% up from the previous year, accounting for 9% of global FDI inflows. 

·        Among major regional and inter-regional groupings, APEC and BRICS almost doubled their share of global FDI inflows over the past ten years. APEC now accounts for more than half of global FDI flows, on a par with the G20, while BRICS jumped to over one fifth. In ASEAN and MERCOSUR, the level of FDI inflows doubled compared to the pre-crisis level. 

·        The three mega regional integration initiatives – TTIP, TPP and RCEP – show diverse FDI trends. The combined share in global FDI inflows of the United States and the EU, which are negotiating the formation of TTIP, nearly halved from 56% ten years ago to 30% in 2013. The share in global FDI inflows of the 12 countries participating in the TPP negotiations was 28% in 2013, markedly smaller than their share in world GDP of 40%. RCEP, which is being negotiated between the ten ASEAN Member States and their six FTA partners, accounted for more than 20% of global FDI flows in recent years, nearly twice as large as at the pre-crisis level. 

·        UNCTAD forecasts that FDI flows will rise gradually in 2014 and 2015, to US$1.6 trillion and US$1.8 trillion respectively, as global economic growth gains momentum which may prompt investors to turn their cash holdings into new investments. However, uneven levels of growth, fragility and unpredictability in a number of economies, and the risks related to the tapering of quantitative easing measures could dampen the FDI recovery. 

For the latest issue of the Global Investment Trends Monitor and the UNCTAD Investment Policy Monitor, please click here. For the latest World Investment Report, please click here

Please note that the UNCTAD World Investment Forum 2014 will take place in the Palais des Nations, Geneva, 13-16 October 2014.   

James Zhan 
Director 
Investment & Enterprise Division 
United Nations Conference on Trade & Development 
Palais des Nations, Geneva 
Tel: +41 22 9175797 

sexta-feira, 25 de maio de 2012

China: crescimento puxado pelo investimento, nao pelas exportacoes

Como alerta a Economist, em seu gráfico diário deste 25 de maio, muita gente pensa que o crescimento extraordinário da China, desde o início do seu take-off, nos anos 1980, se deveria aos seus excedentes de comércio exterior, o que é amplamente equivocado. A participação dos superávits comerciais nas taxas de crescimento tem sido extremamente modesta, e a maior parte do crescimento está baseada na inacreditável capacidade de poupança da população -- na ausência de certos benefícios sociais típicos dos estados de bem-estar, como no Ocidente e no Brasil -- e na taxa bruta de investimentos. Ou seja, se o protecionismo anti-chinês aumentar, isso não necessariamente vai levar a uma crise na China, embora a participação do comércio exterior -- Xs e Ms -- na economia como um todo seja importante, provavelmente na média mundial, que é 50% do PIB.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida 

Daily chart

China in your hand

May 25th 2012, 13:10 by The Economist online
A brief guide to why China grows so fast
OUTSIDE China, people tend to assume that the country's impressive economic growth is due to exports. As the chart below, drawn from our special report on China's economy, shows, this notion has always been exaggerated and is now plain false. China grows thanks to high levels of investment—far higher than those seen in previous Asian miracles such as South Korea and Japan. The corollary of this is low levels of private consumption. Some argue that this must lead to imbalances that one day will send China's economy off a cliff. We disagree.