quinta-feira, 16 de novembro de 2023

Xi Jinping retraça a história das relações sino-americanas - discurso em San Francisco

 Galvanizing Our Peoples into a Strong Force  For the Cause of China-U.S. Friendship Speech

by H.E. Xi Jinping.

President of the People’s Republic of China

At Welcome Dinner by Friendly Organizations in the United States

San Francisco, November 15, 2023

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Friends,

It gives me great pleasure to meet with you, friends from across the American society, in San Francisco to renew our friendship and strengthen our bond. My first visit to the United States in 1985 started from San Francisco, which formed my first impression of this country. Today I still keep a photo of me in front of the Golden Gate Bridge.


Before going further, I wish to express my sincere thanks to the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, the U.S.-China Business Council, the Asia Society, the Council on Foreign Relations, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other friendly organizations for hosting this event. I also want to express my warm greetings to all American friends who have long committed to growing China-U.S. relations and my best wishes to the friendly American people.


San Francisco has borne witness to exchanges between the Chinese and American peoples for over a century. A hundred and fifty-eight years ago, a large number of Chinese workers came all the way to the United States to build the first transcontinental railroad, and established in San Francisco the oldest Chinatown in the Western Hemisphere. From here, China and the United States have made many achievements—USD 760 billion of annual bilateral trade and over USD 260 billion of two-way investment, 284 pairs of sister provinces/states and sister cities, and over 300 scheduled flights every week and over five million travels every year at peak time. These extraordinary accomplishments were made jointly by our peoples accounting for nearly one quarter of the global population.


San Francisco has also borne witness to the efforts by China and the United States in building a better world. Seventy-eight years ago, after jointly defeating fascism and militarism, our two countries initiated together with others the San Francisco Conference, which helped found the United Nations, and China was the first country to sign the U.N. Charter. Starting from San Francisco, the postwar international order was established. Over 100 countries have gained independence one after another. Several billion people have eventually shaken off poverty. The forces for world peace, development and progress have grown stronger. This has been the main fruit jointly achieved by people of all countries and the international community.


Ladies and Gentlemen,


Friends,


The foundation of China-U.S. relations was laid by our peoples. During World War II, our two countries fought side by side for peace and justice. Headed by General Claire Lee Chennault, a group of American volunteers, known as the Flying Tigers, went to the battlefield in China. They not only engaged in direct combats fighting Japanese aggressors, but also created “The Hump” airlift to transport much-needed supplies to China. More than 1,000 Chinese and American airmen lost their lives on this air route. After Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, the United States sent 16 B-25 bombers on an air raid to Japan in 1942. Running low on fuel after completing their mission, Lieutenant Colonel James Doolittle and his fellow pilots parachuted in China. They were rescued by Chinese troops and local civilians. But some 250,000 civilian Chinese were killed by Japanese aggressors in retaliation.


The Chinese people never forget the Flying Tigers. We built a Flying Tigers museum in Chongqing, and invited over 1,000 Flying Tigers veterans and their families to visit China. I have kept in touch with some of them through letters. Most recently, 103-year-old Harry Moyer and 98-year-old Mel McMullen, both Flying Tigers veterans, went back to China. They visited the Great Wall, and were warmly received by the Chinese people.


The American people, on their part, always remember the Chinese who risked their lives to save American pilots. Offspring of those American pilots often visit the Doolittle Raid Memorial Hall in Quzhou of Zhejiang Province to pay tribute to the Chinese people for their heroic and valorous efforts. These stories fill me with firm confidence that the friendship between our two peoples, which has stood the test of blood and fire, will be passed on from generation to generation.


The door of China-U.S. relations was opened by our peoples. For 22 years, there were estrangement and antagonism between our two countries. But the trend of the times brought us together, converging interests enabled us to rise above differences, and the people’s longing broke the ice between the two countries. In 1971, the U.S. table tennis team visited Beijing—a small ball moved the globe. Not long after that, Mr. Mike Mansfield led the first U.S. Congressional delegation to China. This was followed by the first governors’ delegation including Iowa Governor Robert Ray and then many business delegations, forming waves of friendly exchanges.


This year, after the world emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic, I have respectively met in Beijing with Dr. Henry Kissinger, Mr. Bill Gates, Senator Chuck Schumer and his Senate colleagues, and Governor Gavin Newsom. I told them that the hope of the China-U.S. relationship lies in the people, its foundation is in our societies, its future depends on the youth, and its vitality comes from exchanges at subnational levels. I welcome more U.S. governors, Congressional members, and people from all walks of life to visit China.


The stories of China-U.S. relations are written by our peoples. During my first visit to the United States, I stayed at the Dvorchaks in Iowa. I still remember their address—2911 Bonnie Drive. That was my first face-to-face contact with the Americans. The days I spent with them are unforgettable. For me, they represent America. I have found that although our two countries are different in history, culture and social system and have embarked on different development paths, our two peoples are both kind, friendly, hardworking and down-to-earth. We both love our countries, our families and our lives, and we both are friendly toward each other and are interested in each other. It is the convergence of many streams of goodwill and friendship that has created a strong current surging across the vast Pacific Ocean; it is the reaching out to each other by our peoples that has time and again brought China-U.S. relations from a low ebb back onto the right track. I am convinced that once opened, the door of China-U.S. relations cannot be shut again. Once started, the cause of China-U.S. friendship cannot be derailed halfway. The tree of our peoples’ friendship has grown tall and strong; and it can surely withstand the assault of any wind or storm.


The future of China-U.S. relations will be created by our peoples. The more difficulties there are, the greater the need for us to forge a closer bond between our peoples and to open our hearts to each other, and more people need to speak up for the relationship. We should build more bridges and pave more roads for people-to-people interactions. We must not erect barriers or create a chilling effect. 


Today, President Biden and I reached important consensus. Our two countries will roll out more measures to facilitate travels and promote people-to-people exchanges, including increasing direct passenger flights, holding a high-level dialogue on tourism, and streamlining visa application procedures. We hope that our two peoples will make more visits, contacts and exchanges and write new stories of friendship in the new era. I also hope that California and San Francisco will continue to take the lead on the journey of growing China-U.S. friendship!


Ladies and Gentlemen,


Friends,


We are in an era of challenges and changes. It is also an era of hope. The world needs China and the United States to work together for a better future. We, the largest developing country and the largest developed country, must handle our relations well. In a world of changes and chaos, it is ever more important for us to have the mind, assume the vision, shoulder the responsibility, and play the role that come along with our status as major countries.


I have always had one question on my mind: How to steer the giant ship of China-U.S. relations clear of hidden rocks and shoals, navigate it through storms and waves without getting disoriented, losing speed or even having a collision?


In this respect, the number one question for us is: are we adversaries, or partners? This is the fundamental and overarching issue. The logic is quite simple. If one sees the other side as a primary competitor, the most consequential geopolitical challenge and a pacing threat, it will only lead to misinformed policy making, misguided actions, and unwanted results. China is ready to be a partner and friend of the United States. The fundamental principles that we follow in handling China-U.S. relations are mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation.


Just as mutual respect is a basic code of behavior for individuals, it is fundamental for China-U.S. relations. The United States is unique in its history, culture and geographical position, which have shaped its distinct development path and social system. We fully respect all this. The path of socialism with Chinese characteristics has been found under the guidance of the theory of scientific socialism, and is rooted in the tradition of the Chinese civilization with an uninterrupted history of more than 5,000 years. We are proud of our choice, just as you are proud of yours. Our paths are different, but both are the choice by our peoples, and both lead to the realization of the common values of humanity. They should be both respected.


Peaceful coexistence is a basic norm for international relations, and is even more of a baseline that China and the United States should hold on to as two major countries. It is wrong to view China, which is committed to peaceful development, as a threat and thus play a zero-sum game against it. China never bets against the United States, and never interferes in its internal affairs. China has no intention to challenge the United States or to unseat it. Instead, we will be glad to see a confident, open, ever-growing and prosperous United States. Likewise, the United States should not bet against China, or interfere in China’s internal affairs. It should instead welcome a peaceful, stable and prosperous China.


Win-win cooperation is the trend of the times, and it is also an inherent property of China-U.S. relations. China is pursuing high-quality development, and the United States is revitalizing its economy. There is plenty of room for our cooperation, and we are fully able to help each other succeed and achieve win-win outcomes.


The Belt and Road Initiative as well as the Global Development Initiative (GDI), the Global Security Initiative (GSI) and the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI) proposed by China are open to all countries at all times including the United States. China is also ready to participate in U.S.-proposed multilateral cooperation initiatives. This morning, President Biden and I agreed to promote dialogue and cooperation, in the spirit of mutual respect, in areas including diplomacy, economy and trade, people-to-people exchange, education, science and technology, agriculture, military, law enforcement, and artificial intelligence. We agreed to make the cooperation list longer and the pie of cooperation bigger. I would like to let you know that China sympathizes deeply with the American people, especially the young, for the sufferings that Fentanyl has inflicted upon them. President Biden and I have agreed to set up a working group on counternarcotics to further our cooperation and help the United States tackle drug abuse. I also wish to announce here that to increase exchanges between our peoples, especially between the youth, China is ready to invite 50,000 young Americans to China on exchange and study programs in the next five years.


Recently, the three pandas at Smithsonian’s National Zoo in Washington D.C. have returned to China. I was told that many American people, especially children, were really reluctant to say goodbye to the pandas, and went to the zoo to see them off. I also learned that the San Diego Zoo and the Californians very much look forward to welcoming pandas back. Pandas have long been envoys of friendship between the Chinese and American peoples. We are ready to continue our cooperation with the United States on panda conservation, and do our best to meet the wishes of the Californians so as to deepen the friendly ties between our two peoples.


Ladies and Gentlemen,


Friends,


China is the largest developing country in the world. The Chinese people long for better jobs, better lives, and better education for their children. It is what the 1.4 billion Chinese hold dear to their hearts. The Communist Party of China (CPC) is committed to working for the people, and our people’s expectation for a better life is our goal. This means we must work hard to secure their support. Thanks to a century of exploration and struggle, we have found the development path that suits us. We are now advancing the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts by pursuing Chinese modernization.


We are committed to striving in unity to achieve modernization for all Chinese. A large population is a fundamental aspect of China’s reality. Our achievements, however great, would be very small when divided by 1.4 billion. But a problem, however small, would be huge when multiplied by 1.4 billion. This is a unique challenge for a country of our size. In the meantime, big also means strength. The leadership of the CPC, the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics, and the endorsement and support of the people are our greatest strengths. China is both a super-large economy and a super-large market. Not long ago the sixth China International Import Expo was held, attracting over 3,400 business exhibitors from 128 countries including the United States. The exhibition area of American companies has been the largest for six consecutive years at the Expo. Modernization for 1.4 billion Chinese is a huge opportunity that China provides to the world.


We are committed to prosperity for all to deliver a better life for each and every Chinese. To eliminate poverty is the millennia-old dream of the Chinese nation, and prosperity for all is the longing of all Chinese. Before I turned 16, I was in a village in northern Shaanxi Province, where I lived and farmed with villagers, and I knew about their worries and needs. Now half a century on, I always feel confident and strong when staying with the people. Serving the people selflessly and living up to their expectations is my lifelong commitment. When I became General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee and President of the People’s Republic of China, 100 million people were still living below the poverty line set by the United Nations. Thanks to eight years of tenacious efforts, we lifted them all out of poverty. We realized the poverty reduction goal of the U.N. 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development 10 years ahead of schedule. In the process, over 1,800 CPC members lost their lives in the line of duty.


Our goal is not to have just a few wealthy people, but to realize common prosperity for all. Employment, education, medical services, child care, elderly care, housing, the environment and the like are real issues important to people’s daily life and close to their heart. They are being steadily integrated into our top-level plans for national development, thus ever increasing the sense of fulfillment, happiness and security of our people. We will continue to promote high-quality development and deliver the benefits of modernization to all. This is the CPC’s founding mission and the pledge we have made to the people. It will surely be realized with the support of the people.


We are committed to well-rounded development to achieve both material and cultural-ethical advancement for the people. Our forefathers observed that “When people are well-fed and well-clad, they will have a keen sense of honor and shame.” Material shortage is not socialism, nor is cultural-ethical impoverishment. Chinese modernization is people-centered. An important goal of Chinese modernization is to continue increasing the country’s economic strength and improving the people’s living standards, and at the same time, enriching the people’s cultural lives, enhancing civility throughout society and promoting well-rounded development of the person. The purpose of the Global Civilization Initiative I proposed is to urge the international community to address the imbalance between material and cultural advancement and jointly promote continued progress of human civilization.


We are committed to sustainable development to achieve harmony between man and nature. The belief that humans are an integral part of nature and need to follow nature’s course is a distinctive feature of traditional Chinese culture. We live in the same global village, and we possibly won’t find another inhabitable planet in our lifetime. As an English saying goes, “We do not inherit the Earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.” When I was Governor of Fujian Province in 2002, I called for turning Fujian into the first ecological province in China. Later when I worked in Zhejiang Province in 2005, I said that clear waters and green mountains are just as valuable as gold and silver. Today, this view has become a consensus of all the Chinese people. China now has close to half of the world’s installed photovoltaic capacity. Over half of the world’s new energy vehicles run on roads in China, and China contributes one-fourth of increased area of afforestation in the world. We will strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. We have made the pledge, and we will honor it.


We are committed to peaceful development to build a community with a shared future for mankind. Peace, amity and harmony are values embedded in Chinese civilization. Aggression and expansion are not in our genes. The Chinese people have bitter and deep memories of the turmoils and sufferings inflicted upon them in modern times. I often say that what the Chinese people oppose is war, what they want is stability, and what they hope for is enduring world peace. The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation cannot be achieved without a peaceful and stable international environment. In pursuing modernization, we will never revert to the beaten path of war, colonization, plundering or coercion.


Throughout the 70 years and more since the founding of the People’s Republic, China has not provoked a conflict or war, or occupied a single inch of foreign land. China is the only major country that has written peaceful development into the Constitution of the country and the Constitution of the governing party, thus making peaceful development a commitment of the nation. It benefits from and safeguards the current international order. We remain firm in safeguarding the international system with the U.N. at its core, the international order underpinned by international law, and the basic norms governing international relations based on the purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter. Whatever stage of development it may reach, China will never pursue hegemony or expansion, and will never impose its will on others. China does not seek spheres of influence, and will not fight a cold war or a hot war with anyone. China will remain committed to dialogue and oppose confrontation, and build partnerships instead of alliances. It will continue to pursue a mutually beneficial strategy of opening up. The modernization we are pursuing is not for China alone. We are ready to work with all countries to advance global modernization featuring peaceful development, mutually beneficial cooperation and common prosperity, and to build a community with a shared future for mankind.


Ladies and Gentlemen,


Friends,

The passage of time is like a surging river—much is washed away, but the most valuable stays. No matter how the global landscape evolves, the historical trend of peaceful coexistence between China and the United States will not change. The ultimate wish of our two peoples for exchanges and cooperation will not change. The expectations of the whole world for a steadily growing China-U.S. relationship will not change. For any great cause to succeed, it must take root in the people, gain strength from the people, and be accomplished by the people. Growing China-U.S. friendship is such a great cause. Let us galvanize the Chinese and American peoples into a strong force to renew China-U.S. friendship, advance China-U.S. relations, and make even greater contributions to world peace and development!

quarta-feira, 15 de novembro de 2023

How the war in Ukraine has transformed the EU - Nathalie Tocci (Social Europe)

How the war in Ukraine has transformed the EU

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had a profound effect on the European Union, whose response is defining its trajectory.

Social Europe, Nov 15, 2023 

https://www.socialeurope.eu/how-the-war-in-ukraine-has-transformed-the-eu

During the pandemic, the European Union rediscovered the ‘Jean Monnetian’ art of transforming a crisis into an opportunity for integration. It coupled post-pandemic economic recovery with a repowered European green agenda. But just as Europe and the world were beginning to lift their gaze from the pandemic, Vladimir Putin’s Russia invaded Ukraine.

Since then, the EU has responded politically, economically and in relation to energy. It has not only supplied arms and resources to Ukraine but has also accelerated moves for Ukraine to join the EU. Yet with the conflict now approaching its third year, how is the EU faring?

Political unity

When a crisis hits and European countries are called to address it, the perennial question is whether centripetal or centrifugal forces will prevail. Russia is a particularly polarising issue for the EU. Northern- and eastern-European countries have traditionally pushed for a tougher stance, while western and southern states used to press for co-operation. The tension between these two camps explains why Russia’s annexation of Crimea and military engagement in eastern Ukraine saw the EU take a two-track approach of sanctions and selective engagement.

When the full-scale war began, many feared that divisive forces would eventually gain the upper hand. They may have anticipated a moment of unity at the outset, when the shock of Russia’s invasion and awe at Ukrainian resistance galvanised joint European action, but feared that this would dissipate as the months dragged on and as Europe reeled from the economic, energy and humanitarian costs of war.

These fears have proved to be unfounded as the EU has mustered and maintained a united policy response that is becoming more unified, not less, as the war progresses. EU member states have so far unanimously agreed on 11 packages of sanctions on Russia. And while in the early months of the war, west-European countries—notably France—spoke of the need for negotiations and triggered the ire of north and east Europeans by insisting on the need for Russia not to be humiliated, there are few who now believe this is the right path to take.

Some disagreements have surfaced. Viktor Orbán’s Hungary tried to leverage the country’s veto power to extract both financial concessions and sanction exemptions from the EU. But Orban’s manoeuvrings have broadly failed, with the European Commission using a novel form of economic conditionality linked to the rule of law. Indeed, in December 2022, the commission held back €22 billion in cohesion funds for Hungary until it fulfils conditions related to judicial independence, academic freedom, LGBT+ rights and the asylum system.

Energy and economic resilience

A major reason why Europe has remained united so far is because it has weathered the storm of the energy crisis remarkably well. This averted what could have been a devastating economic recession on the continent.

In late spring 2022, the International Monetary Fund had predicted a contraction of 3-5 per cent in countries such as the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Italy and Slovakia. When the war began, few would have bet on the fact that with Russian gas closed off to Europe, the EU would have survived energetically, and therefore economically and politically.

Putin expected Europe to bend and eventually break over its need for energy, which is precisely why he turned the taps off at the cost of hurting Russia too. As Robert Falkner explains, Europe was partly aided by exogenous factors such as a warm winter and sluggish Chinese growth, but the EU and its member states also put in place a set of key measures. They diversified their gas supplies, they met their targets for the refilling of gas storages and developed a European Energy Platform to aggregate demand for the refilling of storages for the following winter.

They co-ordinated the reduction of gas and electricity demand and met the targets they set themselves. And they accelerated the development of renewables, with these now representing the primary source of electricity generation in Europe. Notwithstanding the fuel switch from gas to coal and oil, overall carbon-dioxide emissions in Europe fell by 2.5 per cent in 2022. All this has meant that Europe, so far at least, has averted the risk of recession, and, albeit sluggishly, its economy continues to grow.

Enlargement

The challenges do not stop here, however. In two other areas, the EU faces a daunting task. The first is in relation to enlargement. While never formally halted, the EU’s enlargement process gradually ground to a halt after the big-bang eastern enlargement of the early 2000s. With the exception of Croatia in 2013, no country has entered the EU for almost two decades.

The accession process has formally continued with the western Balkans and Turkey, but it has been increasingly characterised by a double farce: candidate countries have largely pretended to reform, while the EU has pretended to integrate them. The EU has been absorbed by its successive existential crises and by and large thought that stability in its neighbourhood would hold. The results were not great, but they were believed to be good enough.

That illusion was shattered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Suddenly it became obvious that stability, while guaranteed within the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, cannot be taken for granted on the other side of the ‘frontier’. The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, applied for EU membership three days into Russia’s large-scale invasion of his country. Now, Ukraine and Moldova are recognised as candidate countries, while Georgia is now a potential candidate.

In the western Balkans, Albania and North Macedonia have opened accession negotiations, while Bosnia and Herzegovina has been recognised as a candidate. Brokered by the EU high representative, Josep Borrell, Serbia and Kosovo are inching towards a normalisation of relations that would accelerate both countries’ European integration, and the recent change of leadership in Podgorica could revamp momentum for enlargement in Montenegro.

All this does not amount yet to a decisive revival of the EU’s accession policy, and plenty of problems remain to be solved in enlargement countries and in the EU as far as the reform of its institutions and decision-making processes are concerned. It is however becoming increasingly obvious—to EU member states and candidate countries alike—that there is potentially an extremely high cost to non-enlargement. Put simply, the status quo is an intolerably high-risk gamble for European security.

Security and defence

The second challenge relates more directly to security and defence. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created a contradiction. Europeans are finally taking security and defence more seriously, yet paradoxically Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has drastically increased Europe’s dependence on the United States for its defence.

This is true in operational terms: without US military support for Ukraine, Kyiv would have likely fallen, putting at an unprecedented risk the entire European continent. It is also true in terms of defence capacities. As Europeans are depleting their stocks of military supplies, they must spend to replace them with what is available. These supplies are often sourced from the US rather than Europe. While European defence industrial projects are still being implemented, the bulk of European defence spending is being targeted at short-term fixes. This means in relative terms that Europe’s dependence on the US defence industry is increasing.

This is bad news for Europe. Transatlantic relations may currently be strong, but this could change following the 2024 US presidential election. Europe’s greater dependence on the US will also hamper its ability to chart its own way in the world, particularly in relation to China where European interests are distinct from those of the US. While the US views China as an economic competitor and systemic rival, Europe is more concerned by China’s ability to exploit European vulnerabilities to make strategic gains and interfere in European systems.

The challenges ahead

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is transforming Europe profoundly. The EU has risen to the challenge by implementing unprecedented measures across multiple policy areas. Some of these steps, notably the reform of Europe’s energy market, will certainly make the EU stronger than it was before the war.

On other issues, such as enlargement, it however remains to be seen whether the EU will make similar progress. On European defence the challenge is even greater, given that, notwithstanding the significance of the EU’s moves, it appears unable to reverse the trend of greater dependence on the US. And for a union that wants to, and must, play a stronger role on the global stage, this is undoubtedly bad news.


This first appeared on the EUROPP blog of the London School of Economics—see the author’s accompanying paper at LSE Public Policy Review, which will be included in a forthcoming book, Ukraine: Russia’s War and the Future of the Global Order (LSE Press, 2023)

Nathalie Tocci 1

Nathalie Tocci is director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali. She has been special adviser to the EU high representatives Federica Mogherini and Josep Borrell, writing the European Global Strategy and working on its implementation. Her latest book is A Green and Global Europe (Polity Press).

A economia brasileira segundo os dados oficiais - Ricardo Bergamini (IBGE, BCB, etc.)

 Somente o saber e o conhecimento serão capazes de demolir o extremismo de esquerda ou de direita (Ricardo Bergamini)

 

Prezados Senhores

 

Sejam de esquerda ou de direita: todos vão pagar a conta pelo estado de putrefação econômica, social, política e ética do Brasil. Cada um que escolha o culpado de sua preferência, com base nos indicadores abaixo. 

 

Indicadores macroeconômicos do Brasil, sem ideologia

 

Base: Setembro de 2023

1 - Efeito do Depósito Compulsório e dos Créditos Subsidiados na Taxa de Juros de Mercado (BCB)

Em setembro de 2023, o custo médio de rolagem da dívida interna da União, em poder do mercado, foi de 11,15% ao ano, e ninguém consegue explicar o motivo pelo qual a taxa média de mercado do crédito livre, no mês de setembro de 2023, estava em 43,3% ao ano, ou seja: 3,88 vezes maiores. Ficando a impressão de que os bancos são os ladrões dessa fortuna, quando na verdade é o próprio governo.

2 - Estoque da Dívida Líquida da União (ME)

Em 2010, o estoque da dívida líquida da União (interna mais líquida externa) era de R$ 2.388,0 bilhões (61,46% do PIB). Em dezembro de 2018 era de R$ 5.671,4 bilhões (80,97% do PIB). Crescimento real em relação ao PIB de 31,74%, comparativamente a dezembro de 2010. Em dezembro de 2022, migra para R$ 8.106,8 bilhões (81,77% do PIB). Aumento real em relação ao PIB de 0,99%, comparativamente a dezembro de 2018. Em setembro de 2023 migra para R$ 8.347,4 bilhões (79,94% do PIB). Redução real em relação ao PIB de 2,24%, comparativamente a dezembro de 2022.

3 - Estoque da Divida Consolidada do Governo Geral – Governo Federal, o INSS e os governos estaduais e municipais (BCB) 

 

Em 2010 o estoque da dívida do governo geral consolidada era de R$ 2.011,5 bilhões (55,0% do PIB). Em dezembro de 2018 era de R$ 5.272,0 bilhões (76,7% do PIB). Crescimento real em relação ao PIB de 39,45%, comparativamente a 2010. Em dezembro de 2022 migra para R$ 7.224,8 bilhões (73,5 % do PIB). Redução real em relação ao PIB de 4,17% comparativamente a 2018. Em setembro de 2023 migra para R$ 7.828,2 bilhões (74,4% do PIB). Crescimento real em relação ao PIB de 1,22%, comparativamente a 2022.

 

4 - Taxa de Investimento (IBGE)

No 2º trimestre de 2014, a taxa de investimento foi de 21,1% do PIB. No 2º trimestre de 2023, a taxa de Investimento foi de 17,2% do PIB. Redução de 18,48% em relação ao PIB.

 

5 - Taxa de Poupança (IBGE)

 

No 2º trimestre de 2021, a taxa de poupança bruta foi de 20,5% do PIB. No 2º trimestre de 2023, a taxa de poupança foi de 16,9% Redução de 17,56% em relação ao PIB. 

 

6 - IPCA (IBGE)

Em setembro de 2023, o Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) foi de 0,26%, 0,03 ponto percentual (p.p.) acima da taxa de agosto (0,23%). No ano, o IPCA acumula alta de 3,50% e, nos últimos 12 meses, de 5,19%, acima dos 4,61% observados nos 12 meses imediatamente anteriores. Em setembro de 2022, a variação havia sido de -0,29%.

 

7 - IPP (IBGE)

Em setembro de 2023, os preços da indústria variaram 1,11% frente a agosto, segundo resultado positivo seguido. Houve alta de preços em 13 das 24 atividades industriais. O acumulado no ano foi de -5,43%, o menor para um mês de setembro desde o início da série, em 2014. O acumulado em 12 meses ficou em -7,92%.

 

8 - Saldo de Caixa em Moedas Estrangeiras (BCB)

 

Saldo de caixa em moeda estrangeira em setembro de 2023 era de US$ 340,3 bilhões, e a dívida externa bruta em moeda estrangeira de US$ 712,1 bilhões. Com saldo devedor de US$ 371,8 bilhões. 

 

Caso seja utilizado o saldo de caixa, aumentará a dívida líquida da União. 

 

9 - Pesquisa Mensal de Comércio (IBGE)

 

Em setembro de 2023, o volume de vendas do comércio varejista ficou -1,5% abaixo do nível recorde da série ocorrida em outubro de 2020.

 

Em setembro de 2023, o volume de vendas do comércio varejista ampliado ficou -4,2% abaixo do nível recorde da série ocorrida em agosto de 2012.

 

10 - Variação do PIB (IBGE)

O Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) cresceu 0,9% no segundo trimestre de 2023, ante o trimestre anterior, na série com ajuste sazonal. Frente ao mesmo trimestre de 2022, o PIB cresceu 3,4%. No acumulado dos quatro trimestres terminados em junho de 2023, o PIB cresceu 3,2%, ante os quatro trimestres imediatamente anteriores. No semestre, a alta acumulada foi de 3,7%.

 

11 - Pesquisa Industrial Mensal (IBGE)

Em setembro de 2023, a produção industrial nacional variou 0,1% frente a agosto, na série com ajuste sazonal. Em relação a setembro de 2022, na série sem ajuste sazonal, houve alta de 0,6%. O acumulado no ano foi de –0,2% e o acumulado em 12 meses apresentou variação nula (0,0%).

 

12 - Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (IBGE)

 

Base: Trimestre encerrado em setembro de 2023

 

Resumo do estudo:

 

1 - A população desocupada (8,3 milhões) recuou 3,8% (menos 331 mil pessoas) no trimestre e 12,1% (menos 1,1 milhão de pessoas) no ano. Foi o menor contingente desde o trimestre móvel encerrado em maio de 2015 (8,3 milhões).

 

2 - A população fora da força de trabalho (66,8 milhões) ficou estável frente ao trimestre anterior e cresceu 3,2% (mais 2,1 milhões) ante o mesmo trimestre de 2022.

 

3 - A taxa de informalidade foi de 39,1% da população ocupada (ou 39,0 milhões de trabalhadores informais) contra 39,2% no trimestre anterior e 39,4% no mesmo trimestre de 2022.

 

4 - A população ocupada (99,8 milhões) chegou ao maior contingente desde o início da série histórica (1º trimestre de 2012), crescendo 0,9% no trimestre (mais 929 mil pessoas) e 0,6% (mais 569 mil pessoas) no ano. O nível da ocupação (percentual de pessoas ocupadas na população em idade de trabalhar) foi estimado em 57,1%, crescendo 0,4 p.p. frente ao trimestre de abril a junho (56,6%) e ficando estável no ano.

 

5 - De um total de 175,0 milhões de pessoas em idade de trabalhar existem apenas 99,8 milhões de pessoas ocupadas, sendo 39,0 milhões de pessoas na informalidade, ou seja: o Brasil possui apenas 60,8 milhões de cidadãos, sendo apenas 36,0 milhões de declarantes do imposto de renda, o resto são miseráveis dependentes de esmolas.

 

13 - Política Fiscal (BCB)

 

No acumulado em doze meses até dezembro de 2022, registrou-se superávit fiscal primário de R$ 126,0 bilhões (1,28% do PIB), No acumulado em doze meses até setembro de 2023, registrou-se déficit fiscal primário da ordem de R$ 101,9 bilhões (0,97% do PIB), Redução real em relação ao PIB de 175,78%, comparativamente ao acumulado em doze meses até dezembro de 2022. 

 

No acumulado em doze meses até dezembro de 2022, os juros nominais alcançaram R$ 586,4 bilhões (5,96% do PIB). No acumulado em doze meses até setembro de 2023, os juros nominais alcançaram R$ 699,7 bilhões (6,65% do PIB). Aumento real em relação ao PIB de 11,58%, comparativamente ao acumulado em doze meses até dezembro de 2022.

 

No acumulado em doze meses até dezembro de 2022, o déficit fiscal nominal alcançou R$ 460,4 bilhões (4,68% do PIB). No acumulado em doze meses até setembro de 2023, o déficit fiscal nominal alcançou R$ 801,6 bilhões (7,62% do PIB). Aumento real em relação ao PIB de 62,82%, comparativamente ao acumulado em doze meses até dezembro de 2022.

 

14 - Política Monetária (BCB)

 

Em setembro de 2023 o volume de operações de crédito foi de R$ 5.575,9 bilhões (53,0% do PIB), sendo: 

            

- 58,89% do total - R$ 3.283,7 bilhões (31,2% do PIB) com recursos livres com juro médio de 43,3 % ao ano. 

 

- 41,11% do total – R$ 2.292,2 bilhões (21,8 % do PIB) com recursos direcionados concedidos por bancos públicos (CAIXA, BB, BNDES) com juro médio de 11,1% ao ano. 

 

A taxa média de juros das operações contratadas em setembro de 2023 alcançou 30,5% a.a.

 

15 - Pesquisa Mensal de Serviços (IBGE)

 

Em setembro de 2023, o volume de serviços no Brasil decresceu 0,3% frente a agosto, na série com ajuste sazonal. O setor de serviços se encontra 10,8% acima do nível de fevereiro de 2020 (pré-pandemia) e 2,6% abaixo de dezembro de 2022 (ponto mais alto da série histórica). Frente a setembro de 2022, na série sem ajuste sazonal, o volume de serviços recuou 1,2%, interrompendo uma sequência de 30 taxas positivas. O acumulado no ano chegou a 3,4% frente a igual período de 2022. O acumulado em 12 meses recuou de 5,3% em agosto para 4,4% em setembro. 

 

16 - Balanço de Pagamentos (BCB)

 

Série história do saldo das transações correntes com base na média/ano foi como segue: Governo FHC (1995/2002) – déficit de US$ 23,4 bilhões = -3,31% do PIB; Governo Lula (2003/2010) – déficit de US$ 6,6 bilhões = -0,52% do PIB; Governo Dilma/Temer (2011/2018) – déficit de US$ 48,2 bilhões = -2,20% do PIB; Governo Bolsonaro (2019/2022) - déficit de US$ 36,8 bilhões = -2,15% do PIB; Governo Lula (setembro de 2023) – déficit de US$ 39,8 bilhões = -1,92% do PIB.

17 - Movimentações Financeiras das Contas Externas do Brasil (BCB)

 

De 1995 até 2002 (FHC) o Brasil gerou uma saída líquida (fuga) de US$ 22,2 bilhões; de 2003 até 2010 (Lula) o Brasil gerou uma entrada líquida (captação) de US$ 210,5 bilhões; de 2011 até 2018 (Dilma/Temer) o Brasil gerou uma entrada líquida (captação) de US$ 65,7 bilhões; de 2019 até 2022 (Bolsonaro) o Brasil gerou uma saída líquida (fuga) de US$ 71,4 bilhões. Até setembro de 2023 (Lula) houve entrada líquida (captação) de US$ 20,6 bilhões.

 

18 – Relatório Bimestral de Receitas e Despesas (ME)

 

Na Lei Orçamentária Anual (LOA) de 2023, a previsão de crescimento econômico para o ano era de 2,50%. No 4º bimestre de 2023, a previsão de crescimento econômico migrou para 3,16%.

 

Na Lei Orçamentária Anual (LOA) de 2023, o resultado primário previsto foi de déficit para o ano de R$ 228,1 bilhões. No 4º bimestre de 2023, o resultado primário previsto para o ano migrou para déficit de R$ 141,4 bilhões.

 

19 – Principais indicadores de juros e inflação (IBGE/ME/BCB/FGV)

IPCA nos últimos doze meses, até setembro de 2023, foi de 5,19 % ao ano. 

 

IGPM nos últimos doze meses, até setembro de 2023, foi de -5,97% ao ano. 

 

IPP nos últimos doze meses, até setembro de 2023, foi de -7,96% ao ano (inflação dos produtores).

 

Taxa de juros SELIC, em setembro de 2023, foi de 12,75% ao ano. 

 

Taxa de juros de longo prazo (rolagem da dívida do governo), em setembro de 2023, foi de 10,58% ao ano.

 

Taxa de juros para devedores de segunda classe, em setembro de 2023, foi de 43,3% ao ano. 

 

Taxa de juros para devedores de primeira classe, em setembro de 2023, foi de 11,1% ao ano.

 

20 - Resultado Previdenciário Total da União (RGPS e RPPS)

Em 2018, gerou déficit previdenciário de R$ 287,5 bilhões (4,10% do PIB). Em 2022 migrou para déficit previdenciário da ordem de R$ 375,4 bilhões (3,82% do PIB). Redução real em relação ao PIB foi de 6,83%, comparado ao ano de 2018. Em setembro de 2023 migrou para déficit previdenciário de R$ 390,9 bilhões (3,74% do PIB).  Redução real em relação ao PIB foi de 2,09%, comparado ao ano de 2022.  

21 – Dívidas dos estados e municípios, não pagas, e honradas pela União (ME)

 

Até setembro de 2023, foi honrado pela União o montante de R$ 8,8 bilhões de dívidas, não pagas, dos estados e municípios, conforme quadro demonstrativo abaixo.

 

De 2016 até setembro de 2023, a União teve que honrar pagamento das dívidas, não pagas, dos estados e municípios, constantes do quadro demonstrativo abaixo, no montante de R$ 60,5 bilhões. 

 

Abaixo os quatro estados mais endividados, onde a DC (dívida consolidada) está maior do que a RCL (receita corrente líquida), quais sejam:

 

São Paulo com 162,3%.

 

Minas Gerais com 187,3%.

 

Rio Grande do Sul com 198,7%.

 

Rio de Janeiro com 222,7%.

 

22 - Diferença entre juros SELIC e juros de longo prazo (BCB)

 

Existe a taxa de juros SELIC divulgada periodicamente pelo Banco Central, destinada às operações de mercado de curto prazo, ou seja: é uma taxa de referência para um dia, que em setembro de 2023 estava em 12,75% ao ano.

 

A outra taxa de juros é a de longo prazo negociada, pelo Banco Central, com grandes investidores, que nos doze meses até setembro de 2023 foi de 10,58% ao ano. Sendo de 11,15% ao ano para a dívida interna em poder do mercado, e -1,86% ao ano para a dívida externa. 

 

Nos últimos doze meses, até setembro de 2023, os investidores tiveram um ganho real acima da inflação de 5,39% ao ano em seus investimentos no Brasil, ou seja, dentro da média de 2011/2022 que foi de 4,92% ao ano. 

 

23 -  Saldo da Balança Comercial (BCB)

 

Até setembro de 2023, o Brasil exportou US$ 252,9 bilhões e importou US$ 181,7 bilhões, gerando um saldo na balança comercial positivo para o Brasil de US$ 71,2  bilhões. Cabe lembrar que 44,52 % do saldo positivo foram obtidos com a China.

 

2 – Até setembro de 2023, o Brasil exportou para a China US$ 71,2 bilhões e importou US$ 39,5 bilhões, gerando um saldo na balança comercial positivo para o Brasil de US$ 31,7 bilhões.

 

3 – Até setembro de 2023, o Brasil exportou para os Estados Unidos US$ 26,6 bilhões e importou US$ 28,9 bilhões, gerando um saldo  na balança comercial negativo para o Brasil de US$ 2,3 bilhões.

 

4- Até setembro de 2023, o movimento corrente da balança comercial (exportações mais importações) caiu -5,3% em relação ao ano de 2022. Com redução das exportações em - 0,1% e queda das importações em -11,7%.

 

24 – IGPM (FGV)

 

Índice Geral de Preços – Mercado (IGP-M) variou 0,37% em setembro, após queda de 0,14% no mês anterior. Com este resultado, o índice acumula taxa de -4,93% no ano e de -5,97% em 12 meses. Em setembro de 2022, o índice havia caído 0,95% e acumulava alta de 8,25% em 12 meses.   

 

25 - Composição do PIB Brasileiro (IBGE) 

No 2º trimestre de 2023, a composição do PIB foi como segue: R$ 214,0 (8,07%) na agropecuária; R$ 541,3 bilhões (20,42%) na indústria; R$ 1.560,1 bilhões (58,85 %) nos serviços e R$ 335,7 bilhões (12,66%) em impostos. Totalizando um PIB de R$ 2.651,1 bilhões (100,00%)

 

Conclusão: No 2º trimestre de 2023, 15,53% da composição do PIB são: impostos sobre produtos (12,66 %) e inflação pelo IPCA (2,87%).

 

Ricardo Bergamini

www.ricardobergamini;com;br

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