Russia's stockpile of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, already large and diverse, is being modernized with an eye towards greater accuracy, longer ranges and lower yields to suit their potential war-fighting role.
The United States believes that Russia probably is not adhering to the nuclear testing moratorium in a manner consistent with the zero-yield standard. Our understanding of nuclear weapon development leads us to believe Russia's testing activities would help it improve its nuclear weapon capabilities. The United States, by contrast, has forgone such benefits by upholding a zero-yield standard.
The U.S. has determined that Russia's actions have strained key pillars of arms control architecture. These include the Chemical Weapons Convention, Open Skies Treaty, the Vienna documents, and the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.
With its announcement of a new nuclear-capable strategic bomber, China soon will field its own version of a nuclear triad, demonstrating China's commitment to expanding the role and centrality of nuclear forces in Beijing's military aspirations. And like Russia, China is also working to field nuclear theater-range precision-strike systems. While China's overall arsenal is assessed to be much smaller than Russia's, this does not make this trend any less concerning.
Over the next decade, China will likely at least double the size of its nuclear stockpile in the course of implementing the most rapid expansion and diversification of its nuclear arsenal in China's history. Last year, China launched more ballistic missiles for testing and training than the rest of the world combined.
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