Atlantic Council: previsões para 2023: Global Foresight 2023

Atlantic Council: previsões para 2023

Global Foresight 2023 The Authoritative Forecast for the  Year Ahead - and Beyond

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The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security is pleased to share the first component of its latest Atlantic Council Strategy Paper, Global Foresight 2023.   Read Here:    This is the second edition of the Scowcroft Center's annual Global Foresight report. For the past decade, the center has been home to one of the world's premier strategic foresight shops.    We are excited to share the first part of this year's installment (which is part of the Atlantic Council Strategy Papers series): our ranking of 2023's top risks and opportunities. This year, we have asked the leaders of the Atlantic Council's sixteen programs and centers to predict the biggest global risks and opportunities that 2023 could bring.    What should we watch for in the year ahead? Potential risks include:  Democracies descend into instability: Some democratic countries are heading into 2023 with highly divided societies, shaky institutions, and question marks hanging over their political leaders. Over the past several years, for example, we have seen repeated changes in leadership in the United Kingdom and Israel, and disputed elections in the United States and Brazil, all of which could be ominous signs for the health of global democracy.   The internet splits forever: Watch for a slow roll toward two internets: one designed to facilitate government control with built-in surveillance, and one that’s free, open, and secure—or at least trying to be.  Support for Ukraine plummets: Though support has held steady thus far, several variables affect the resolve of US, European, and other allied governments—and voters—to continue paying the costs of arming Ukraine and isolating Russia over the coming year. Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats, energy prices and associated cost-of-living crises, and a looming recession all threaten the backing Ukraine needs to win the war.  Potential opportunities on the horizon include:  The transition away from fossil fuels hits an inflection point: 2023 could be a bellwether year for the energy transition—and net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions could be within sight by 2050 if we play our cards right.    The European Union acts more like a great power: After Russia’s invasion, and with more hawkish views on China in ascendance, Europeans broadly agree on the question of the EU’s relationship with power, even if the EU still lacks instruments for exercising hard power.   Funding for climate resilience doubles: While countries pledged $230 million to help the places most vulnerable to a changing climate adapt at the 2022 UN climate summit, private investors on the sidelines discussed new ways to channel capital to cities and regions facing extreme heat.    In the first week of 2023, we will be sharing the second and third components of Global Foresight: our expert survey of the world's leading geopolitical and foresight experts, and our list of Snow Leopards, which are under-the-radar phenomena that we should be monitoring.

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The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world. The Center honors General Brent Scowcroft’s legacy of service and embodies his ethos of nonpartisan commitment to the cause of security, support for US leadership in cooperation with allies and partners, and dedication to the mentorship of the next generation of leaders.

Another world-shaking, world-reordering war in Europe. Brewing fears of war on an even greater scale in Asia. A coronation in China and political upheaval across the democratic world. Climate-induced catastrophes and emboldened movements to mitigate and adapt to them. The worst energy crisis in a half century and worst food crisis in over a decade. Spiraling inflation and the specter of global recession. A less acute but still-raging, still-hugely disruptive pandemic. Epochal ferment in social media and technology more broadly.

Recently, the leaders of the Atlantic Council’s sixteen programs and centers gathered to take stock of these and other developments and trends over the past year, peer into the future, and predict the biggest global risks and opportunities that 2023 could bring.

The results of this foresight exercise are below. Each scenario is assigned a probability; “medium” means a 50/50 chance that the scenario will occur within the next year. Many lower-probability but highly consequential scenarios are included because—as has been so vividly demonstrated this past year—those types of events tend to be some of the most disruptive and transformative. And keep in mind: Forecasts are not destiny. Political leaders and policymakers have agency in shaping whether and how these scenarios play out in the coming year or beyond. The primary purpose of assessing global risks and opportunities, in fact, is to gain insight into how to avert unwanted outcomes and achieve desired ones. To that end, don’t miss the policy prescriptions mixed into many of the entries below.

Top risks: 

1) A surge in climate adaptation curtails progress on cutting emissions, locking in at least 1.5 degrees of warming. HIGH

2) Iran becomes a nuclear-weapons power. HIGH

3) The United States loses Colombia—and with it, increasingly, Latin America. MEDIUM

4) The internet splinters entirely and irrevocably. LOW

5) The United States and its allies give up on Ukraine and acquiesce to a Russian victory there. LOW

6) Jihadists construct a “terrorist bridge” from the Red Sea to the Atlantic. MEDIUM

7) A crisis just short of war erupts over Taiwan. LOW-MEDIUM

8) Countries—and not just US adversaries—move away from the dollar faster than anticipated. LOW-MEDIUM

9) New momentum builds for US withdrawal from the Middle East—and this time it doesn’t meet resistance. LOW-MEDIUM

10) Developing countries suffer a wave of defaults and economic hardship. MEDIUM

11) A growing trust deficit destabilizes democracies from within. MEDIUM

12) US tech policy toward China drives a wedge in the transatlantic relationship. MEDIUM-HIGH

Top opportunities: 

1) Ukraine wins—and becomes part of the institutional West. MEDIUM

2) The transition away from fossil fuels reaches an inflection point. LOW-MEDIUM

3) Turkey emerges as a security guarantor in the Black Sea. MEDIUM

4) The United States demonstrates that “America is back” economically in Asia. LOW-MEDIUM

5) Putin loses—abroad and at home. LOW-MEDIUM

6) The European Union starts acting like a great power. MEDIUM

7) A push for EU expansion boosts the democratic world. MEDIUM

8) Venezuelan oil comes online, relieving pressure on global energy markets. HIGH

9) High-skilled visa reform finally happens in the United States. MEDIUM

10) Funding for climate adaptation and resilience dramatically accelerates and doubles in size. MEDIUM

11) Climate change accomplishes what nothing else will: Unite South Asian nations. LOW

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