Peace
Anne Applebaum
November 2, 2026
Young demonstrators across Europe, many with legitimate grievances about jobs and housing, have unexpectedly begun talking about “peace” in the past few weeks. Protestors in Italy seemed to lump together wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, and are calling on their government to stop spending money on weapons, including in Ukraine. Politicians have used the same narrative. In Bulgaria, the prime minister has also called for a halt in aid to Ukraine; the issue has become part of the Bulgarian presidential campaign. Both Alice Weidel, leader of the German far-right, and Marine LePen, leader of the French far-right, have made similar arguments: stop sending weapons so that there will be “peace.”
I understand why this simple formula is appealing. But it is also misleading. Those using those slogans are not asking what would happen if Europeans really did stop sending money and weapons to Ukraine. Since January of 2025, the US has not made any new material contribution to the war. Thanks entirely to support from Europe and others, including Canada, Australia and Japan, Ukraine has defended itself anyway. Ukrainians are incredibly innovative, and have they built the world’s highest-tech drone industry. But without funding, sooner or later, the Ukrainian frontline would break. And then what?
One thing is certain: the fighting would not end, and violence might grow worse. Ukraine would collapse into guerilla war. Europe would have a lawless zone, an Afghanistan, on its borders. Russia would inflict the same kind of repression on Kyiv and central Ukraine that it has applied in occupied western Ukraine, murdering leaders, setting up concentration camps, building a police state, kidnapping children. Millions of refugees would stream into Europe to escape the moden equivalent of a Nazi occupation. The Russian army, after capturing Ukrainian resources and maybe even the Ukrainian defense industry, would be reinvigorated, and ready to move farther into more countries that Putin considers to be part of his empire.
Would this be “peace”? Would Europeans be able to stop spending money on weapons? No. We would face an uglier, more frightening war, one that would require Europeans to double or triple their military spending. Instead of spending budgets on health care or education, Europeans would have to completely re-imagine their security. Without the Ukrainian army protecting Europe from Russia, Europeans would have to change their way of life entirely.
Peace will come someday, but not from cutting support for Ukraine. The war will end when Putin gives up his dream of absorbing Ukraine into Russia, when he understands that he cannot win. Tragically, the Trump administration has fed his dream, and prolonged the war by negotiating business deals that encourage Putin to keep fighting. But there are limits to what Russia can absorb, and how many lives they can throw away.
