Série história do saldo das transações correntes com base na média/ano foi como segue: Governo FHC (1995/2002) – déficit de US$ 23,4 bilhões = -3,31% do PIB; Governo Lula (2003/2010) – déficit de US$ 6,6 bilhões = -0,52% do PIB; Governos Dilma/Temer (2011/2018) – déficit de US$ 48,2 bilhões = -2,21% do PIB; Governo Bolsonaro (2019) - déficit de US$ 50,8 bilhões = 2,76% do PIB, nos 12 meses encerrados em dezembro de 2019.
Estamos caminhando para uma grave crise cambial, consequentemente sugiro aos leitores estudarem - O Colapso do Real em 1999: Lições de uma crise cambial.
LatAm Talking Points 27/01/2020
Wider-than-expected current account deficit in Brazil
The current account posted a USD 5.7 billion deficit in December, wider than our forecast (USD -4.2 billion) and market estimates (USD -4.6 billion). The main deviation in comparison to our forecast came from the profits and dividends account, with larger-than-expected net remittances. The current account deficit over 12 months amounted to USD 50.8 billion, or 2.8% of GDP, in 2019. The main driver behind the increase compared to 2018 (USD -41.5 billion, or 2.2% of GDP) was the shrinking trade deficit, particularly slowing exports. The service deficit remained virtually stable in the period, while the income deficit receded, partly offsetting the deteriorating trade balance. For the next years, we expect the current account deficit to reach 2.5%-3.0% of GDP, in line with the economic rebound. In our view, even at a higher level, the curre nt account deficit will still be comfortably financed by foreign direct investment. ** Full story here.
The BCB released its weekly survey with market participants (Focus). The median of IPCA inflation expectations for 2020 declined 9 bps to 3.47%, probably reflecting downward revisions on IPCA inflation rates for the first quarter of the year. Expectations for 2021 and 2022 remained unchanged at 3.75% and 3.50%, respectively. The median of year-end Selic rate forecasts declined 25 bps to 4.25% for 2020, and remained stable at 6.25% for 2021 and 6.50% for 2022. The median of GDP growth did not change for the three years horizon (2020-2022), at 2.31% for 2020 and 2.50% for both 2021 and 2022. On the exchange rate front, expectations oscillated to BRL 4.10/USD (from 4.05) for 2020, and remained unchanged at BRL 4.00/USD for 2021 and BRL 4.05/USD for 2022.
According to FGV’s monthly survey, retail confidence increased 1.3 p.p. to 98.1 in January. The breakdown shows that this advance was boosted by a strong reading on the expectations component, which increased 3.8 p.p, to 104.4. On the opposite direction, the current condition component receded 1.1 p.p, to 91.9. According to FGV, this result is consistent with a gradual recovery in the retail sector, which still depends on stronger signals from the labor market and consumer confidence to accelerate.