From Anton Geraschenko:
“ Public figure and volunteer Mariia Berlinska talks about the realities of a full-scale war with the Russian Federation:
◾️"We are at the beginning of a war with a very serious enemy. Russia knows how to play the long game, and they will go all the way. For them, failure in the war will mean that the leader is weak, "the king is not real." Russians can forgive their tsar everything but weakness ... Therefore, now Russia is betting on playing the long game, on exhaustion, because we have much less resources. The logic is that ... Russia has at least 5-6 times greater mobilization potential. It is worth adding to this mathematics that the Russians mobilized tens of thousands of Ukrainians from the occupied territories into the army."
◾️"Equipment on the battlefield is important. But technology is the elephant in the room that we haven't noticed. You can assemble here thousands of weapons from all over the world. But the Russians are already producing tens of thousands of strike systems, from FPV to localized Shahed drones. It is not difficult to guess what will happen next."
◾️"War is always mathematics... For example, a hundred of BMPs, tanks or guns worth hundreds of millions of dollars... the equipment arrives on the battlefield at the cost of an extraordinary effort. And dozens of units are lost in a matter of days. Because Russian attack drones of the type "Lancets" or even the simplest FPVs priced 500-600 dollars burn the equipment worth millions to the ground. It all burns in seconds, along with our people."
◾️"No matter how cruel it sounds, in fact, we trade people for square meters and time. People at war buy us time, time for us to prepare. In fact, at the cost of their lives and health, they preserve the chance of survival for their ‘tribe’. We must honestly admit that we were not ready for a war of such a scale."
Full interview (in Ukrainian): pravda.com.ua/columns/2023/0…
From @Doktor_Klein
Maths of war in Ukraine are devastating for Russia.
It is true that it has more capacity to mobilize personnel, but it has between 40 and 50 times less production capacity than Ukraine's allies. And the quality of their products is not comparable.
The morale given by the survival instinct exponentially multiplies the value of the troops and their capacity for long-term resistance.
Maths also says that for every soldier on the front lines, 10 skilled workers are needed to supply and maintain them. Russia does not have the capacity to maintain that in the long term.
The mathematics of war also applies to economics. Ukraine already has a war economy, further supported by countries that have 65% or more of world GDP.
If Ukraine maintains its willingness to sacrifice and its allies do not betray it, Russia has no chance of winning.
What's more, every day that passes without Russia leaving the Ukraine, the defeat for Russia will be harder.
From Steve:
“ The key phrase ' and its allies do not betray it,'
Many will not UK, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania etc.
They are able to be long term friends (Russia seems not to have that ability with otrher countries).
So will enough countries stay the course?”
From Doktor Klein:
“ Citizens of those countries, we are here and in many other forums, helping to prevent that from happening and pressing for increase the material support.
Citizens' support for Ukraine is growing and indignation against Russia is increasing every day.
NATO was asleep and has woken up.
The western weaponery industry was asleep and has woken up too.
After the first 3 days, Russia has never had a chance to win this war.
Russian intelligence services were wrong in predicting the reactions in the West.
The longer the Russians take to admit defeat, the worse for them.
But let's never forget that we provide support, but the Ukrainians provide blood, sacrifice, courage and will.”
From Alex Flammant;
“ in addition to this, Poland is changing/upgrading their army with new weaponry. All the old stuff will go to Ukraine… equipment for an entire army…”
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