Sobre a necessidade de ajudar a Ucrânia a se defender da Rússia, como Israel de Teheran - Anton Geraschenko

Transcrevendo:

Iran, for the first time in history, dared to launch a direct strike against Israel but proved incapable of achieving not only the objectives set by the leadership but also of inflicting any serious damage on Israeli territory.

In the aftermath of this attack, once again, we can see that allied solidarity is important. If air targets hadn't been destroyed by Jordan, the US, France, or Great Britain, it would have been so much more difficult for Israel to repel the Iranian attack. If Western countries did not fear a clash with Russia and did not restrict aid, it would be easier for Ukraine to fend off attacks by an aggressor state.

Regarding future predictions: the question for today is whether and how Israel will respond to Iran's actions on the night of April 13-14. If it raises the bar with its  response, Iran, in turn, will also respond, and thus, we will find ourselves in a real huge war.

So, as I have said many times before, if the Russian-Ukrainian war is not stopped within a few months, it could metastasize into the globalization of conflicts in critical areas around the world and, as a result, World War III.

The just and sustainable end of the Russian-Ukrainian war remains essential if the world is to have any hope of surviving the confrontation between democracies and dictatorships and not waiting until a major devastating war.

The issue of aid to Israel and Ukraine must have this consequence - a feeling of common sense and a realization of the need to confront dictatorships such as Russia and Iran more forcefully.

Adequacy is now the main response to the serious challenges that the democratic world is facing as dictatorships feel their impunity and ability to change other countries' borders and determine which countries will exist on the political map of the world and which will not.

Unless the democratic world proves that it can effectively combat this, conflicts will only intensify, and it won't be possible to avoid heavy casualties and serious damage as a result of attacks by dictatorial regimes.

Anton Geraschenko

A Ucrânia necessita fronteiras abertas da UE para seus produtos agrícolas - Anton Geraschenko

 From: Anton Geraschenko

Friends,

The following post is about something extremely important for the Ukrainian economy and Ukrainian survival. Please read it and help spread the message. If you know someone who needs to read this post, please share it with them. 

In 2022, after Russia launched the full-scale invasion on Ukraine, the EU introduced a temporary suspension of import duties and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural exports to the Union.

Now, they have been restored for another year except for a cap on imports of Ukrainian poultry, eggs and sugar. It is vital for Ukrainian economy that they are not capped in the foreseeable future.

The agriculture area is one of the largest sources of revenue for Ukraine - about 60%. It brings much-needed income to finance the Ukrainian Armed Forces, to help Ukrainians survive. It provides jobs and the opportunity for people to support themselves and their families, to donate to the Army. It keeps people in Ukraine, not making them refugees and needing support from other countries.

Some facts:

🔷️The European Union consumes over 12 million tons of poultry meat per year. Of this amount, about 200,000 tons were Ukrainian in 2023.

🔸️Meanwhile, Ukraine has exported 425,000 tons of poultry in 2023. So while the total amount of Ukrainian poultry in EU is very, very small (as is its capability to drive up prices), for Ukraine these numbers (and the money earned) make about half of our poultry exports.

🔸️Moreover, the EU currently gives shelter to millions of Ukrainian refugees who fled from the war. So the demand for all types of food in the EU has increased when these consumers moved there.

🔸️Ukrainian poultry and egg industry has suffered tremendously in the war - at least 6 million chickens (hens etc) died from occupation, blackouts, combat, you name it. Consequently, the egg production has dropped significantly, as well. The industry needs money to restore its facilites. The money comes from exports.

🔷️As for sugar, the cap could lead to factories closure in Ukraine as the Ukrainian sugar industry is export-oriented. With the sea export routes being limited and the cap on exports to EU, Ukrainian factories will suffer losses. This will lead to closures. This means less jobs available, less taxes paid into the Ukrainian economy, less money for the Ukrainian Army - and more financial support from the EU, in the end.

❗️Fair competition IS important. But the situation itself is not fair. Ukraine is fighting for her survival and lives in different circumstances. So the preferences are actually a way to make the competition fair.

There will be a vote on this issue soon in the EU. I urge everyone to spread this message. Allowing Ukrainian exports is a real support for Ukraine, a real way to help us stand. Thankful to all who understands this.

O czar de todas as Rússias e seu poder absoluto - Anton Geraschenko

 Putin has (re)established himself as the Russian emperor

Anton Geradchenko

March 18, 2024

His goal is to rule for as long as he possibly can and die his own death in this status.

From now on, Putin is the center and the foundation of all power in Russia. His system of governing has shifted from being based on competition between the different "Kremlin towers" to a "Politbureau" of a small number of people, each of whom is responsible for specific areas, experts believe. Putin holds the final decision-making power, but he won't get into details of things that do not concern his end goal - being in power for as long as he is alive.

Putin as tsar has absolute power. He expects and rewards absolute loyalty. Among other things, this means that social lifts in Russia are non-existent now. Any modernization of the system is impossible. Obedience becomes the key virtue. This will obviously lower the quality of executive decisions made on all levels.

What this might mean for Ukraine and the world?

◾️As it happened with the USSR, this system is not sustainable and will decay. However, that will not happen soon enough as Russia has a lot of resources and its people don't expect much in terms of quality of life.

◾️ The war becomes an important "component" of Putin's power and authority. He will not stop and won't care about any number of Russian losses. He must be stopped with force and power, militarily.

◾️ Putin will look for subtle(ish) ways to undermine NATO and EU as whole institutions and their member states separately. Provocations, propaganda, uncertainty, clashing groups between each other, creating discord and mistrust - these are all tried and tested Russian tools. Russia is prepared to invest huge amounts of money into that.

◾️The importance of sanctions increases further, especially in cutting Russia off from technological advances - equipment, technologies, specialists.

◾️Timely and full military and financial assistance to Ukraine is key. 

There is no time for lingering and hoping Russia will collapse on its own or something unexpected will happen that will alter the course of history. Challenging times require sturdy leaders who think strategically.

Putin pretende expandir a Rússia até a antiga URSS, na Europa e mais além - Anton Geraschenko

 From: Anton Geraschenko

Europe and NATO might be closer to war with Russia than they may now believe.

Let's  recall how many experts and politicians denied a potential full-scale  Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, even though there was enough  evidence - but in hindsight, it seems obvious.

On the other hand,  many knew and believed that a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine  was going to happen, but was there a plan for a confrontation? The first  months after the invasion were a time of confusion and waiting for  events to unfold. Ukraine survived primarily thanks to the heroism of  the people who went out to stop Russian tanks with their bare hands.

Today,  it seems that we are back in the spring of 2022, when there is no  unity, no specific common plan of action, no determination, and the West  is watching the development of events.

With the war in Ukraine, Russia has clearly seen that the West is afraid of escalation in the context of mutual destruction.

Indeed, Russia won't be able to wage a large-scale war against NATO (unless it has powerful allies).

Therefore, Russia might resort to the tactic of gradual steps: strike, cease hostilities, and offer to negotiate. 

Russia  sees that NATO is not reacting swiftly, that there is no unanimity and  decisions are made collectively by consensus, and that there is a  tendency to delay and resolve issues diplomatically. 

Russia has  long openly stated that it is at war with the West, that it wants NATO  to collapse, and that it wants to change the geopolitical outlook of the  world.

At the moment, Russian population is prepared for a  conflict with NATO, for huge human losses, for a possible nuclear war,  and it approves, on the whole.

At the same time, Russia can carry out strikes of various kinds: 

◾️ strikes on critical civilian infrastructure in European NATO countries;

◾️ Russian missiles can "accidentally" fly into the space of a NATO country and each time reach farther and farther;

◾️ interfere in elections;

◾️ launch cyberattacks, leak wiretaps;

◾️ crash and take control of social media;

◾️ cut cables at the bottom of the seas;

◾️ blackmail with grain, oil, fertilizers, nuclear war, etc.;

◾️ corrupt and blackmail politicians, journalists, and celebrities in the West;

◾️ spread propaganda;

◾️ push allies against each other, manipulate them.

After  another strike, Russia would send signals to the moderate governments  and politicians: "Don't fight for your allies with us if you don't want  your population to be dragged into a war and be the ones blamed for it.  This is not your 'conflict'. And we will give your country cheap gas for  it, for example."

So, first of all, it is not about a possible  direct military, forceful confrontation between NATO and Russia, but  about who is scared of it and who will be the first to want to negotiate  and agree to the terms of the other side. 

I am sure that Putin today believes that he has already won.

He  sees the West being unprepared for war on all levels. He sees the lack  of aid to Ukraine. So, for him, this is evidence that Russia is  defeating the West right at this particular moment.

The West's  psychological fear of nuclear escalation and direct confrontation is the  possible future basis for negotiating a security architecture in Europe  and the world on Russia's terms. 

Thus, Russia does not need a  force equal to the military might of NATO. It only needs to scare the  West, or rather the people who are now making decisions, with  psychological pressure to make them indecisive.

Internal  dissension and endless discussions of escalation only reinforce Russia's  belief that NATO will back down if Russia moves on.

Will Russia  wait 10 to 20 years? I don't think so. Putin is already in his advanced  years and wants to end his life with a "victory" - restoring Russia to  the confines of the USSR.

So things could develop much faster. 

Russia has been saying for ten years that it is at war with NATO and that it wants to defeat NATO.

Russian people are internally ready for everything, even for nuclear war.

Today,  Ukraine continues to contain Russia and fight for our existential  survival. But our forces are unequal. We have no time for indecision and  no time for deliberations. We must not allow the situation to reach the  "too late" part. Unity, determination, and weapons are needed urgently.

“A Ucrânia NÃO DEVE EXISTIR”: Dmitry Medvedev - Anton Geraschenko

 Não sei se Lula, Amorim ou qualquer um dos seus assessores diplomáticos concordariam com os argumentos rudes do vice-presidente do Conselho russo de Segurança sobre a inutilidade de se pensar sobre a existência da Ucrânia. Pelo menos ele é sincero…

From: Anton Geraschenko

Today Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, once again wrote in his Telegram channel that Ukraine should be destroyed as an independent state and that the only option that Russia offers for Ukrainians is to live in an empire:

"The existence of Ukraine is deadly for Ukrainians. And I am not at all referring only to the current state, the Bandera political regime. I am talking about any, absolutely any Ukraine. 

No matter how much they aspire to the mythical European Union and NATO. When choosing between eternal war and inevitable death and life, the absolute majority of Ukrainians (except for a minimal number of sick nationalists) will eventually choose life. They will realize that life in a big common state, which they do not love much now, is better than death. Their death and the death of their loved ones. And the sooner Ukrainians realize this, the better." - he wrote.

UN Resolution, "Uniting for Peace" in favor of Ukraine - Anton Geraschenko, Christian Tomuschat

 Hoje no Mundo Militar liked

Anton Gerashchenko

@Gerashchenko_en

It is very important! I ask for maximum dissemination and cooperation! Let's do it! There is a UN Resolution commonly known as "Uniting for Peace" resolution. It was adopted in 1950 and states that if the UN Security Council cannot reach an agreement on urgent international peace matters, then the responsibility for this is handed over to UN General Assembly (where there is no veto power). Here is a Wikipedia article about this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_377 UN Security Council is scheduled to meet on January 10th regarding Russia using missiles from North Korea in Ukraine. With Russia having veto power in the Security Council, isn't that the right time to put this resolution in action? One of the most serious consequences of the Russian aggression in Ukraine is destroying the global security system as now it is de-facto not functioning. Without firm, decisive actions, without a clear position, the world will plummet into chaos and constant wars.

Uniting for Peace

General Assembly resolution 377 (V)

New York, 3 November 1950

By Christian Tomuschat

Professor emeritus at Humboldt University, Berlin

 

https://legal.un.org/avl/ha/ufp/ufp.html

 

(Paper from 2008)

 

On 3 November 1950, the General Assembly adopted resolution 377 A (V), which was given the title “Uniting for Peace”. The adoption of this resolution came as a response to the strategy of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) to block any determination by the Security Council on measures to be taken in order to protect the Republic of Korea against the aggression launched against it by military forces from North Korea. At the initial stage of this armed conflict, in June 1950, the Security Council had been able to recommend to the Members of the United Nations to “furnish such assistance to the Republic of Korea as may be necessary to repel the armed attack and to restore international peace and security in the area” (resolution 83 (1950) of 27 June 1950). The resolution could be passed because the USSR, at that time, boycotted the meetings of the Security Council with the aim of obtaining the allocation of the permanent Chinese seat to the communist Government in Beijing. It assumed that in its absence the Security Council would not be able to discharge its functions since Article 27, paragraph 3, of the Charter provides that substantive resolutions of the Security Council require an affirmative vote of nine members “including the concurring votes of the permanent members”. The majority of the members of the Security Council, however, were of the view that absence from the meeting room could not prevent the key organ of the United Nations from acting validly, a view that was later endorsed by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) (Legal Consequences for States of the Continued Presence of South Africa in Namibia (South West Africa) notwithstanding Security Council Resolution 276 (1970), Advisory Opinion, I.C.J Reports 1971, p. 16, at para. 22). Given that its protests remained fruitless, the USSR sent again, as from August 1950, a delegation to the meetings of the Council which cast a negative vote on a United States draft resolution condemning the continued defiance of the United Nations by the North Korean authorities. In order to overcome this impasse, the United States, under the leadership of its Foreign Secretary Dean Acheson, succeeded in persuading the General Assembly that it should claim for itself a subsidiary responsibility with regard to international peace and security, as enunciated by Article 14 of the Charter. The result of these efforts was resolution 377 A (V).

The most important part of resolution 377 A (V) is section A which states that where the Security Council, because of lack of unanimity of the permanent members, fails to exercise its primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security, the General Assembly shall seize itself of the matter. Procedural and substantive steps are suggested. First of all, if the Assembly is not in session, it may meet in emergency special session at the request of the Security Council or of a majority of its own members. Second, such a session shall be convened with a view to making appropriate recommendations for “collective measures…including the use of armed force when necessary”. As also the language of the resolution clearly reveals, the General Assembly can never be a full substitute for the Security Council in this area. Accordingly, only “recommendations” are mentioned, i.e., pronouncements devoid of any binding legal force. Additionally, resolution 377 A (V) establishes two auxiliary bodies, a Peace Observation Commission, which existed until 1960, and a Collective Measures Committee, which had a short life of only two years. None of these bodies has played any role of major significance.

Although the General Assembly did not attempt to arrogate to itself powers akin to those rooted in Chapter VII of the Charter, it stands to reason that originally resolution 377 A (V) was hardly reconcilable with the Charter. Articles 11 and 12 establish unequivocally the primacy of the Security Council with regard to all matters relating to international peace and security. As far as procedure is concerned, Article 12, paragraph 1, stipulates that while the Council is exercising its function in respect of any dispute or situation, “the General Assembly shall not make any recommendation with regard to that dispute or situation”. On the other hand, where “action” seems to be necessary, the General Assembly is enjoined to refer the matter to the Council (Article 11, paragraph 2). This configuration, however, was hard to uphold. Politically, it is definitely quite unwise to keep the General Assembly on the sidelines when a major conflict erupts. Almost as a logical consequence, Article 11, paragraph 2, and Article 12, paragraph 1, have suffered an erosion process of which resolution 377 A (V) constitutes only one element among many others. In its Advisory Opinion on the Legal Consequences of the Construction of a Wall in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, the ICJ has formally confirmed that the prohibition of simultaneous action has been superseded by practice (I.C.J. Reports 2004, p. 136, at paras. 27-28).

To date, ten emergency special sessions have been convened. The first one took place on the occasion of the 1956 war between Israel and Egypt and the British-French attack on the Suez Canal zone; the tenth emergency special session, dealing with the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory, started in 1997 and has not yet come to its end. (It was adjourned by resolution ES-10/16 of 17 November 2006, para. 13, and can at any time be resumed upon request by Member States.)

According to political criteria, different patterns can be distinguished. If the Security Council is unanimous in requesting such a session, the harmony between the two main organs of the United Nations is not disturbed. The crisis in Lebanon prompted the Security Council in 1958 to convene an emergency special session of the General Assembly (resolution 129 (1958) of 7 August 1958). It did so without mentioning explicitly resolution 377 A (V), and one may indeed have doubts as to whether this was a case of application of that resolution since there was no lack of unanimity of the permanent members. The situation in Lebanon was referred to the General Assembly because the Security Council had no solution to offer. The second situation is characterized by a vote of a majority of the members of the Security Council against the opposition of some other members, including permanent members. In such instances, the veto does not operate since referral to the General Assembly is considered to constitute a procedural determination and hence not subject to such blocking power. Understandably, the first emergency special session was called by the Security Council against the resistance of France and the United Kingdom (resolution 119 (1956) of 31 October 1956). In the Hungarian crisis, which unfolded almost at the same time, the roles were distributed differently, with only the USSR opposing the motion (resolution 120 (1956) of 4 November 1956). Similar configurations could be observed with regard to the holding of emergency special sessions on the Republic of the Congo (resolution 157 (1960) of 17 September 1960: opposition of Poland and the USSR), on the conflict between India and Pakistan on account of East Pakistan/Bangladesh (resolution 303 (1971) of 6 December 1971: abstention of France, Poland, the USSR and the United Kingdom), and on Afghanistan (resolution 462 (1980) of 9 January 1980: opposition of the German Democratic Republic and the USSR). Total emancipation from the Security Council is reached where the Secretary-General convenes an emergency special meeting at the request of a United Nations Member acting with the support of a majority in the General Assembly. The seventh emergency special session on Palestine (1980-1982) was in fact initiated by Senegal, the eighth emergency special session on Namibia (1981) goes back to a request by Zimbabwe, and the tenth emergency special session was solicited by Qatar as the Chair of the Group of Arab States at the United Nations. It stands to reason that in such instances the overwhelming weight of third world countries can manifest itself to its full extent. Urgent matters may also be dealt with during the ordinary sessions of the General Assembly if the Security Council takes no action owing to the negative vote of a permanent member. (A prominent example is provided by General Assembly resolution 41/38 of 20 November 1986, dealing with the aerial and naval attack on Libya by the United States.)

Although the shifting of responsibilities to the General Assembly may not be consistent with the original intentions of the drafters of the Charter, it is today fully accepted that emergency special sessions have become an integral part of the legal order of the United Nations. On the other hand, the need for the holding of such sessions has considerably decreased, as for many years the General Assembly is frequently in session much beyond the usual period from September to December. On a regular basis sessions are resumed in plenary meetings for short periods in the months before the start of a new session in September. In the early years, Member States were not represented in New York throughout the year. Today, urgent matters can be dealt with by the General Assembly at short notice. As already pointed out, the tenth emergency special session, which started in 1997, has not yet been concluded and has for many years operated alongside the regular sessions of the General Assembly. (In its Advisory Opinion on the Wall case (I.C.J. Reports 2004, p. 152, at para. 34), the ICJ did not raise any objections against that practice.) It has become a special forum to deliberate on the policies and practices of Israel with regard to the occupied Palestinian territories, totally changing its character from a meeting convened to discuss urgent matters to a permanent, but intermittent conference on a topic of paramount interest to the international community.

Obviously, the crucial element of resolution 377 A (V) was the affirmation that the General Assembly may, if deemed appropriate by it, recommend collective action, including the use of force. In this core sense, the resolution has been implemented only once in the Korean crisis. By resolution 498 (V) of 1 February 1951 it made a finding to the effect that the People’s Republic of China had engaged in aggression in Korea (para. 1) and “call[ed] upon all States and authorities to continue to lend every assistance to the United Nations action in Korea” (para. 4), which of course meant military assistance. The resolution does not explicitly refer to the Uniting for Peace resolution, but it emphasizes that the Security Council, “because of lack of unanimity of the permanent members, has failed to exercise its primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security” (preamble). Thus, the wording is exactly copied from resolution 377 A (V). The establishment of the peacekeeping operation First United Nations Emergency Force (UNEF I) by resolution 1000 (ES-I) of 5 November 1956 with a view to monitoring the frontline between Israel and Egypt does not come within the same category since UNEF I had no combat function to discharge but was meant to neutralize the conflict solely by its presence between the two opposing parties in accordance with the “classic” peacekeeping concept which was given birth on that occasion. On the whole, it is not easy to draw the demarcation line between “measures” contemplated specifically by resolution 377 A (V) and other measures which the General Assembly may recommend within the framework of its general mandate without any hindrance. According to the Advisory Opinion of the ICJ in the Certain Expenses case, the exclusive powers of the Security Council are confined to coercive or enforcement action (Certain Expenses of the United Nations (Article 17, paragraph 2, of the Charter), Advisory Opinion of 20 July 1962, I.C.J. Reports 1962, p. 151, at 164), but the ICJ did not discuss specifically the impact of resolution 377 A (V). In this connection, the question arises, inter alia, how the imposition of an embargo, as formerly practiced by the General Assembly in a sustained fashion to the detriment of South Africa, is to be characterized (this practice commenced with resolution 41/35 F of 10 November 1986). In any event, it has become a regular feature of resolutions of the General Assembly with regard to armed conflicts to call upon the parties to desist from any hostilities and to withdraw their troops to their own territories (see, for instance, resolution 62/243 of 14 March 2008, on the situation in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan). Such requests are not considered as requiring any particular legitimation under resolution 377 A (V).

Resolution 377 A (V) has a potential that could subvert the well-equilibrated balance of power within the United Nations, a potential that is not disclosed in a recent description of the role and authority of the General Assembly (see resolution 60/286 of 8 September 2006, annex, para. 1). But it would actually be used against the Security Council only in case of general dissatisfaction with the policies of the permanent members. Notwithstanding their sheer numerical superiority, the many Members of the United Nations are much too weak to attempt to challenge the decisions made at the Security Council. Any application of Uniting for Peace with a view to taking enforcement action would at least need the support of one of the permanent members. To date, resolution 498 (V) of 1951 remains the only example of a situation where the General Assembly, at that time under dominating Western influence, recommended taking such action, notwithstanding the firm resistance of a permanent member.

 

This Introductory Note was written in October 2008.

 

Related Materials

 

A. Jurisprudence

International Court of Justice, Certain Expenses of the United Nations (Article 17, paragraph 2, of the Charter), Advisory Opinion of 20 July 1962, I.C.J. Reports 1962, p. 151.

International Court of Justice, Legal Consequences for States of the Continued Presence of South Africa in Namibia (South West Africa) notwithstanding Security Council Resolution 276 (1970), Advisory Opinion, I.C.J Reports 1971,p. 16.

International Court of Justice, Legal Consequences of the Construction of a Wall in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Advisory Opinion, I.C.J. Reports 2004, p. 136.

 

B. Documents

Security Council

Resolution 83 (1950) of 27 June 1950 (Complaint of aggression upon the Republic of Korea).

Resolution 119 (1956) of 31 October 1956 (Complaint by Egypt against France and the United Kingdom).

Resolution 120 (1956) of 4 November 1956 (The situation in Hungary).

Resolution 129 (1958) of 7 August 1958 (Complaint by Lebanon - Complaint by Jordan).

Resolution 157 (1960) of 17 September 1960 (The Congo Question).

Resolution 303 (1971) of 6 December 1971 (The Situation in the India/Pakistan Subcontinent).

Resolution 462 (1980) of 9 January 1980 (International peace and security).

 

General Assembly

Resolution 498 (V) of 1 February 1951 (Intervention of the Central People’s Government of the People’s Republic of China in Korea).

Resolution 1000 (ES-I) of 5 November 1956 (UNEF I).

Resolution 41/35 F of 10 November 1986 (Policies of apartheid of the Government of South Africa).

Resolution 41/38 of 20 November 1986 (Declaration of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the Organization of African Unity on the aerial and naval military attack against the Socialist People's Libyan Arab Jamahiriya by the present United States Administration in April 1986).

Resolution 60/286 of 8 September 2006 (Revitalization of the General Assembly).

Resolution ES-10/16 of 17 November 2006 (Illegal Israeli actions in Occupied East Jerusalem and the rest of the Occupied Palestinian Territory).

Resolution 62/243 of 14 March 2008 (The situation in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan).

 

C. Doctrine

J. Andrassy, “Uniting for Peace”, American Journal of International Law, vol. 50 (1956) 563-582.

J. Krasno and M. Das, “The Uniting for Peace Resolution and Other Ways of Circumventing the Authority of the Security Council”, in: B. Cronin and I. Hurd (eds.), The UN Security Council and the Politics of International Authority, London et al.: Routledge, 2008, 173-195.

K. S. Petersen, “The Uses of the Uniting for Peace Resolution since 1950”, International Organization, vol. 13 (1959) 219-232.

H. Reicher, “The Uniting for Peace Resolution on the Thirtieth Anniversary of its Passage”, Columbia Journal of Transnational Law, vol. 20 (1982) 1-49.

E. Stein and R. Morrissey, “Uniting for Peace Resolution”, in: Encyclopedia of Public International Law, vol. 4, Amsterdam et al.: Elsevier, 2000, 1232-1235.

C. Tomuschat, “‘Uniting for Peace’: ein Rückblick nach 50 Jahren”, Die Friedens-Warte, Journal of International Peace and Organization, vol. 76 (2001) 289-303.

D. Zaum, “The Security Council, the General Assembly, and War: the Uniting for Peace Resolution”, in: Low, Vaughan et al. (eds.), The United Nations Security Council and War: the Evolution of Thought and Practice since 1945, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2008, 154-174.

A. Zimmermann, “Uniting-for-Peace und Gutachtenanfragen der Generalversammlung”, in: Weltinnenrecht. Liber amicorum Jost Delbrück, Berlin, Duncker & Humblot, 2005, 909-925.

 

Como derrotar a Rússia em sua guerra de agressão contra a Ucrânia - Anton Geraschenko

Como derrotar a Rússia em sua guerra de agressão contra a Ucrânia 

Anton Geraschenko, 5/12/2023

“The Soviet Union lost about 15,000 soldiers dead in Afghanistan over 10  years. In the First Chechen war, the number of Russian casualties  amounted to 5,000-14,000 in almost two years (estimates differ). In both  cases, USSR/Russia acknowledged their defeat and left (with Chechnya,  Russia returned three years later). 

Russian losses due to their  aggression in Ukraine already amount to hundreds of thousands. Yet,  Putin shows no intention to stop, and Russians seem to be OK with that.

Both  Ukrainian military leadership (this was confirmed by the  Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny) and our allies assumed that there is a  certain number of losses that Russia will consider unacceptable. Then,  either Russian leadership would make the political decision to look for  ways to exit the conflict or the Russian population would somehow revolt  against such a huge number of pointless deaths (e.g., in both  Afghanistan and Chechen wars, committees of soldiers' mothers were  eventually an influential power).

As we now know, these  assumptions were wrong. The Kremlin regime has mostly mobilized and  recruited men from the poorer parts of Russian society where the value  of human life is smaller than the chance to receive a free Lada car.

In  the same logic, our Western allies also believed that Russian  authorities would somehow be more pragmatic and rational. So their idea  was to "make the war too costly for Putin" (with sanctions, for example)  but at the same time not to threaten Putin and allow him to keep a good  face. "Making the war too costly" assumes that there is a "price" after  which the war is recognized as "unprofitable" and the regime then would  look for a way out.

(In many instances, this position remains strong among our allies).

The  logic of the Kremlin regime is completely different. There is no  "acceptable" or "unacceptable" price, there is only victory or defeat.  The Kremlin has decided that winning the war is the only way for the  current regime to retain power, and for the people at the top to stay  alive and free. Thus, defeat in the war is a "point of no return" and  any price of victory is acceptable.

What to do, then? First -  accept the new reality. Then, look for the enemy's weak points that are  more valuable and painful to them than loss of cannon fodder.

Undermining  and lessening Russia's combat potential still remains a key task. When  given the right tools, Ukraine is very effective at that. Therefore,  Ukraine needs to receive what we need - in full amounts and on time.  Some decisions might need to be reconsidered (like forbidding strikes on  Russian territory. Such strikes would undermine Russian logistics  significantly and would save a lot of Ukrainian lives).

Sanctions still remain a key area. Closing loopholes that are used to circumvent them is crucial.

While  Russia remains in its current state, it will continue being a threat to  the security of the region, the whole world and itself. The imperial  behemoth is incapable of real change, which plays into the hands of  Putin's regime. 

Ukrainian victory must mean Russia's defeat, not  deterrence. That is a crucial paradigm shift that would allow to end  this war sustainably and not just be a ceasefire to restore Russia's  military potential.”

Source: Yevhen Dykyj, Ukrainian military analyst, and thoughts and comments from Anton Geraschenko

Maths of war in Ukraine are devastating for Russia.- Doktor Klein, Anton Geraschenko

 From Anton Geraschenko:

“ Public figure and volunteer Mariia Berlinska talks about the realities of a full-scale war with the Russian Federation:

◾️"We are at the beginning of a war with a very serious enemy. Russia knows how to play the long game, and they will go all the way. For them, failure in the war will mean that the leader is weak, "the king is not real." Russians can forgive their tsar everything but weakness ... Therefore, now Russia is betting on playing the long game, on exhaustion, because we have much less resources. The logic is that ... Russia has at least 5-6 times greater mobilization potential. It is worth adding to this mathematics that the Russians mobilized tens of thousands of Ukrainians from the occupied territories into the army."

◾️"Equipment on the battlefield is important. But technology is the elephant in the room that we haven't noticed. You can assemble here thousands of weapons from all over the world. But the Russians are already producing tens of thousands of strike systems, from FPV to localized Shahed drones. It is not difficult to guess what will happen next."

◾️"War is always mathematics... For example, a hundred of BMPs, tanks or guns worth hundreds of millions of dollars... the equipment arrives on the battlefield at the cost of an extraordinary effort. And dozens of units are lost in a matter of days. Because Russian attack drones of the type "Lancets" or even the simplest FPVs priced 500-600 dollars burn the equipment worth millions to the ground. It all burns in seconds, along with our people."

◾️"No matter how cruel it sounds, in fact, we trade people for square meters and time. People at war buy us time, time for us to prepare. In fact, at the cost of their lives and health, they preserve the chance of survival for their ‘tribe’. We must honestly admit that we were not ready for a war of such a scale."

Full interview (in Ukrainian): pravda.com.ua/columns/2023/0…

From @Doktor_Klein

Maths of war in Ukraine are devastating for Russia.

It is true that it has more capacity to mobilize personnel, but it has between 40 and 50 times less production capacity than Ukraine's allies. And the quality of their products is not comparable.

The morale given by the survival instinct exponentially multiplies the value of the troops and their capacity for long-term resistance.

Maths also says that for every soldier on the front lines, 10 skilled workers are needed to supply and maintain them. Russia does not have the capacity to maintain that in the long term.

The mathematics of war also applies to economics. Ukraine already has a war economy, further supported by countries that have 65% or more of world GDP.

If Ukraine maintains its willingness to sacrifice and its allies do not betray it, Russia has no chance of winning.

What's more, every day that passes without Russia leaving the Ukraine, the defeat for Russia will be harder.

From Steve:

“ The key phrase ' and its allies do not betray it,'

Many will not UK, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania etc.

They are able to be long term friends (Russia seems not to have that ability with otrher countries).

So will enough countries stay the course?”

From Doktor Klein:

“ Citizens of those countries, we are here and in many other forums, helping to prevent that from happening and pressing for increase the material support.

Citizens' support for Ukraine is growing and indignation against Russia is increasing every day.

NATO was asleep and has woken up.

The western weaponery industry was asleep and has woken up too.

After the first 3 days, Russia has never had a chance to win this war.

Russian intelligence services were wrong in predicting the reactions in the West.

The longer the Russians take to admit defeat, the worse for them.

But let's never forget that we provide support, but the Ukrainians provide blood, sacrifice, courage and will.”

From Alex Flammant;

“ in addition to this, Poland is changing/upgrading their army with new weaponry. All the old stuff will go to Ukraine… equipment for an entire army…”