From: Anton Geraschenko
Europe and NATO might be closer to war with Russia than they may now believe.
Let's recall how many experts and politicians denied a potential full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, even though there was enough evidence - but in hindsight, it seems obvious.
On the other hand, many knew and believed that a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine was going to happen, but was there a plan for a confrontation? The first months after the invasion were a time of confusion and waiting for events to unfold. Ukraine survived primarily thanks to the heroism of the people who went out to stop Russian tanks with their bare hands.
Today, it seems that we are back in the spring of 2022, when there is no unity, no specific common plan of action, no determination, and the West is watching the development of events.
With the war in Ukraine, Russia has clearly seen that the West is afraid of escalation in the context of mutual destruction.
Indeed, Russia won't be able to wage a large-scale war against NATO (unless it has powerful allies).
Therefore, Russia might resort to the tactic of gradual steps: strike, cease hostilities, and offer to negotiate.
Russia sees that NATO is not reacting swiftly, that there is no unanimity and decisions are made collectively by consensus, and that there is a tendency to delay and resolve issues diplomatically.
Russia has long openly stated that it is at war with the West, that it wants NATO to collapse, and that it wants to change the geopolitical outlook of the world.
At the moment, Russian population is prepared for a conflict with NATO, for huge human losses, for a possible nuclear war, and it approves, on the whole.
At the same time, Russia can carry out strikes of various kinds:
◾️ strikes on critical civilian infrastructure in European NATO countries;
◾️ Russian missiles can "accidentally" fly into the space of a NATO country and each time reach farther and farther;
◾️ interfere in elections;
◾️ launch cyberattacks, leak wiretaps;
◾️ crash and take control of social media;
◾️ cut cables at the bottom of the seas;
◾️ blackmail with grain, oil, fertilizers, nuclear war, etc.;
◾️ corrupt and blackmail politicians, journalists, and celebrities in the West;
◾️ spread propaganda;
◾️ push allies against each other, manipulate them.
After another strike, Russia would send signals to the moderate governments and politicians: "Don't fight for your allies with us if you don't want your population to be dragged into a war and be the ones blamed for it. This is not your 'conflict'. And we will give your country cheap gas for it, for example."
So, first of all, it is not about a possible direct military, forceful confrontation between NATO and Russia, but about who is scared of it and who will be the first to want to negotiate and agree to the terms of the other side.
I am sure that Putin today believes that he has already won.
He sees the West being unprepared for war on all levels. He sees the lack of aid to Ukraine. So, for him, this is evidence that Russia is defeating the West right at this particular moment.
The West's psychological fear of nuclear escalation and direct confrontation is the possible future basis for negotiating a security architecture in Europe and the world on Russia's terms.
Thus, Russia does not need a force equal to the military might of NATO. It only needs to scare the West, or rather the people who are now making decisions, with psychological pressure to make them indecisive.
Internal dissension and endless discussions of escalation only reinforce Russia's belief that NATO will back down if Russia moves on.
Will Russia wait 10 to 20 years? I don't think so. Putin is already in his advanced years and wants to end his life with a "victory" - restoring Russia to the confines of the USSR.
So things could develop much faster.
Russia has been saying for ten years that it is at war with NATO and that it wants to defeat NATO.
Russian people are internally ready for everything, even for nuclear war.
Today, Ukraine continues to contain Russia and fight for our existential survival. But our forces are unequal. We have no time for indecision and no time for deliberations. We must not allow the situation to reach the "too late" part. Unity, determination, and weapons are needed urgently.
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