Temas de relações internacionais, de política externa e de diplomacia brasileira, com ênfase em políticas econômicas, em viagens, livros e cultura em geral. Um quilombo de resistência intelectual em defesa da racionalidade, da inteligência e das liberdades democráticas.
O que é este blog?
Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;
Meu Twitter: https://twitter.com/PauloAlmeida53
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/paulobooks
domingo, 29 de janeiro de 2012
Petite randonnée en Europe: en Côte d’Azur, avec les impressionistes... - Paulo Roberto de Almeida
sábado, 28 de janeiro de 2012
Zut! Encore une opportunite ratee: des livres par millions!
Mas não escapa no meio da primavera...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Magical Montolieu, In Southern France
By Susan Norton
The best months to go there are May thru October. Montolieu is located in a mountainous region of France and can get quite cold in the winter months.
Toulouse is one hour to the west of Montolieu where there is an inter-national airport, serviced by Air France, Air Inter, Air Liberté, etc.
The International Inkwell Hotel For Writers
Rue de la Marie
11170 Montolieu
Aude, France
Tel: +33(0) 46824 8117
FX: +33(0) 46824 8321
For November thru April: P.O. Box 477689
Chicago, IL. 60647
FX: (773) 278 3849
EMAIL: Inlink@compuserve.com
They also sponsor other writer workshops.
Tel: +33(0) 46824 8018
Rates: 300 francs ($60) per night
Montolieu Information Center - (33-4) 68-24-80-04
FX. (33=4) 68-24-80-11
“Take My Mother Please” - customer designed adventures in L.A. and elsewhere by Anne Block - (323) 737-2200 FX. - (323) 737-2229
www.TakeMyMotherPlease.com
Goodbye Lenin?; ops, Goodbye Castro?: contrapunteo cubano del visado y del permiso...
Um claro recado a Cuba
Post-Doctoral Research: University of Cambridge
(In)Feliz Aniversario: sempre se deve lembrar dos mais significativos...
Aliás, sua ex-mulher, hoje ministra do Planejamento e Orçamento, nunca, repito NUNCA, se movimentou para elucidar um dos mais escabrosos casos da política mafiosa no Brasil.
Curioso não é mesmo?
O que têm a dizer os companheiros sobre isso?
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
CRIME COMUM?
Celso Daniel: dez anos, oito mortos, nenhuma solução
Irmão do ex-prefeito de Santo André acusa Gilberto Carvalho de levar propina de Santo André para José Dirceu usar na campanha de Lula em 2002. Por Hugo Souza
Ainda a China: livro e artigo sobre questões econômicas
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Siria: nossos aliados nos Brics...
Posted: 28 Jan 2012 08:52 AM PST
O Conselho de Segurança da ONU reuniu-se na sexta-feira para discutir uma proposta de resolução contra o governo da Síria, acusado de reprimir violentamente manifestações pelo país. Com apoio de líderes da Liga Árabe, diplomatas da Grã-Bretanha, França e Alemanha redigiram uma proposta de resolução que pede que o presidente sírio, Bashar al-Assad, deixe o poder.
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Outra não deve ser a posição da China...
Maravilha das maravilhas...
Vamos encontrar explicações aceitáveis para nossa abstenção, por certo...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
A insustentavel posicao orcamentaria da Venezuela: petroleo e gastos publicos
Ele informa, entre outras coisas, a qual nível de preço do barril do petróleo os orçamentos nacionais se tornam sustentáveis.
Se os dados estiverem corretos, a Venezuela vai direto para o brejo petrolífero, ou seja, só consegue suportar seus custos estatais atuais com o petróleo custando mais de 170 dólares o barril.
Registre-se que o barril do petróleo venezuelano tem um preço inferior ao do Brent, ou mercado spot Nymex, onde se comercializa o Arabian light, dado suas características intrínsecas (menos leve que os primeiros, exigindo maiores gastos de refinagem).
Mister Chávez deve estar desesperado pelo aumento dos preços do ouro negro...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
China's Global Rise: Implications for the Americas
The Winter 2012 AQ adds new perspective and details to the China–Latin America relationship in a series of articles by both top China specialists and Latin Americanists. Elizabeth Economy of the Council on Foreign Relations and Zhang Mingde of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies—both China experts—explain China’s world view and foreign policy. Osvaldo Rosales of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean analyzes how Chinese manufactured exports undermine the region, and our signature Charticle lays out the facts about Chinese trade and investment.
In other articles, journalist Mike McDonald discusses the weak state capacity and pervasive crime that threaten Guatemala and Nicaragua as both inaugurate presidents to new terms. Silvio Waisbord of the George Washington University cautions that, far from solving the censorship and inequality of old media, social media also faces challenges of state manipulation and lack of professionalism. Gregory Elacqua of Universidad Diego Portales argues that the Chilean student protest movement has shaped public opinion but has yet to influence public policy, and Stephanie Leutert reports from Ecuador on the plight of Colombian refugees.
Access content from this issue, as well as the latest blog posts and web-exclusive articles from our 23 contributors across the Americas, at www.AmericasQuarterly.org. We also invite you to visit our social inclusion portal featuring voices from historically marginalized groups. Follow us on Twitter: @AmerQuarterly, and like us on Facebook: www.facebook.com/americasquarterly.
ON CHINA [full-text available online]:
ELIZABETH ECONOMY
Unless the leadership in Beijing changes course, it faces increasing isolation.
CHARTICLE: The Fast Ramp-Up
RYAN BERGER
The economics of the China–Latin America relationship.
Much in Common
ZHANG MINGDE
A senior Shanghai scholar says China poses no threat to the region.
PHOTO ESSAY: East Meets South
KEITH DANNEMILLER
Mexicans and Chinese learn, play and work together.
Trade Competition from China
OSVALDO ROSALES
The impact of Chinese exports on four countries in the region.
PLUS [full-text available online]:
Guatemala’s Military Man, Nicaragua’s Revolutionary
MIKE MCDONALD
The newly elected leaders of Guatemala and Nicaragua are familiar. So are the problems they face.
Media 1.5 [Audio interview available]
SILVIO WAISBORD
New technology has expanded the media choices available to Latin Americans. But don’t expect it to usher in a new era of citizen engagement.
. . . AND MORE
Tragedia educacional brasileira: escola decai em qualidade e em quantidade de alunos...
Os paises balticos, a Irlanda e a Italia e a Espanha: licoes da crise
Simon Tilford
Centre for European Reform, 27 January 2012
Eurozone policy-makers – from President Sarkozy and Wolfgang Schäuble to the former President of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet – advocate that Italy and Spain should emulate the Baltic states and Ireland. These four countries, they argue, demonstrate that fiscal austerity, structural reforms and wage cuts can restore economies to growth and debt sustainability. Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Ireland prove that so-called "expansionary fiscal consolidation" works and that economies can regain external trade competitiveness (and close their trade deficits) without the help of currency devaluation. Such claims are highly misleading. Were Italy and Spain to take their advice, the implications for the European economy and the future of the euro would be devastating.
What have the three Baltic economies and Ireland done to draw such acclaim? All four have experienced economic depressions. From peak to trough, the loss of output ranged from 13 per cent in Ireland to 20 per cent in Estonia, 24 per cent in Latvia and 17 per cent in Lithuania. Since the trough of the recession, the Estonian and Latvian economies have recovered about half of the lost output and the Lithuanian about one third. For its part, the Irish economy has barely recovered at all and now faces the prospect of renewed recession.
Domestic demand in each of these four economies has fallen even further than GDP. In 2011 domestic demand in Lithuania was 20 per cent lower than in 2007. In Estonia the shortfall was 23 per cent, and in Latvia a scarcely believable 28 per cent. Over the same period, Irish domestic demand slumped by a quarter (and is still falling). In each case, the decline in GDP has been much shallower than the fall in domestic demand because of large shift in the balance of trade. The improvement in external balances does not reflect export miracles, but a steep fall in imports in the face of the collapse in domestic demand.
Estonia had a current account deficit equivalent to 17 per cent of GDP in 2007, but by 2011 this has become an estimated surplus of 1 per cent of GDP. Latvia and Lithuania experienced shifts in their external balances of a similar magnitude. Ireland went from a deficit of 5.6 per cent of GDP in 2008 to a small surplus in 2011. There is little argument that all four countries needed to narrow their trade deficits. But countries that have experienced such enormous declines in domestic demand, and whose economic growth figures have been flattered by a collapse of imports (and hence improvement in trade balances) hardly provide a blueprint for others, let alone big countries.
Spain and Italy could close their trade deficits if they engineered economic slumps of the order experienced by the Baltic countries and Ireland. But a collapse in demand in the EU's two big Southern European economies comparable to that experienced in the Baltic countries and Ireland would impose a huge demand shock on the European economy. Taken together, Italy and Spain account for around 30 per cent of the eurozone economy, so a 25 per cent fall in domestic demand in these two economies would translate into an 8 per cent fall in demand across the eurozone. The resulting slump across Europe would have a far-reaching impact on public finances, the region's banking sector and hence on investor confidence in both government finances and the banks. The impact on sovereign solvency in Spain and Italy and on the two countries' banking sectors would be devastating.
There are other factors that undermine the relevance of the Baltic and Irish experiences. In the face of mass unemployment, emigration, especially from Ireland and Lithuania, has ballooned. In the year to April 2011 alone, Irish emigration topped 76,000. The figures are similar for Lithuania, with 83,000 leaving in 2010. Comparable totals for Italy and Spain would be 1 million and 750,000 respectively. Moreover, the Irish have overwhelmingly moved to countries outside the eurozone (Australia, Canada, the UK and US). By contrast, a significant proportion of the very much larger number of Spanish and Italians would presumably be seeking work elsewhere in the currency union. The robust German labour market could absorb some migrants, but nothing like the numbers involved.
Despite massive movements in external balances that could not be repeated elsewhere and emigration that could not easily be emulated by others, Ireland, Latvia and Lithuania has experienced dramatic deteriorations in their public finances. Including the cost of bailing out Ireland's banks, public debt has risen from just 25 per cent of GDP in 2007 to over 100 per cent in 2011. In Latvia the debt to GDP ratio increased from 9 per cent to 45 per cent over this period and in Lithuania from 16 per cent to 38 per cent. The exception is Estonia, which has managed to run largely balanced budgets over the last four years.
Italy and Spain have few lessons to learn from the experience of the Baltic countries or Ireland. Those advocating that Italians and Spanish emulate these economies should admit that they are arguing in favour of an unprecedented slump in domestic demand. They should then demonstrate how this would be consistent with the solvency of both governments and banks in Italy and Spain. Finally, they should explain how the European economy as a whole could cope with an economic shock of this order.
Simon Tilford is chief economist at the Centre for European Reform
Nova frase idiota (mas apenas por um dia...): Boaventura de Sousa Santos
Defino socialismo como sinônimo democracia sem fim, em todos os espaços.
Boaventura de Sousa Santos
Comento: De fato, o socialismo foi uma democracia sem fim: ele democratizou totalmente a fome, a penúria, as misérias materiais e a imensa miséria moral que consistiu em ter de viver num regime de mentira, de fraudes permanentes, de repressão ao pensamento independente do Estado, de gulags e campos de reeducação.
Desafio esse sociólogo idiota a me apontar um só socialismo que tenha preservado a liberdade e promovido a democracia...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Uau: Existem dois seguidores numero 500: proponho um duelo para tirar o vencedor...
Não sei bem o que fazer agora, pois ambos teriam direito ao brinde prometido.
Vale um duelo entre os dois para qualificar o vencedor?
Talvez o sistema informe exatamente quem entrou antes, o que precisaria ser verificado.
Em todo caso aqui vão os dois registros:
1) Recebi mensagem enviada a este post, assim apresentada, postada às 15:23hs:
2) Verifiquei que a lista dos membros, alinhada na coluna da direita, inferior, tem este novo membro, mas o idiota do Blogger não diz a hora:
Oh Deus! Oh vida! Oh céus! Eu sabia que não ia dar certo!
Ganha, dos dois, quem me indicar o autor desta famosa frase de outros tempos...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida