O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

segunda-feira, 15 de outubro de 2012

Affirmative Action: American Style (rethinking the wole) - The New York Times


CAPITAL IDEAS

Rethinking Affirmative Action



THE founding principle of affirmative action was fairness. After years of oppression, it seemed folly to judge blacks by the same measures as whites.
“You do not take a person who, for years, has been hobbled by chains and liberate him, bring him up to the starting line of a race,” President Lyndon B. Johnson said in a 1965 speech that laid the groundwork for affirmative action, “and then say, ‘You are free to compete with all the others,’ and still justly believe that you have been completely fair.”
Given this history, it was striking to watch the 80 minutes of Supreme Court oral arguments about affirmative actionon Wednesday. With the courtroom overflowing, filled with people who have spent their careers fighting for or against affirmative action, only one side talked about fairness. And it was not the side defending affirmative action.
The lawyer for Abigail Fisher, a young white woman rejected by the University of Texas, argued that she had been denied equal treatment. The conservative justices, sympathetic to Ms. Fisher’s case, expressed particular concern that affluent black students were receiving preferential treatment.
Nobody on the other side — not the university’s lawyer, not the Obama administration’s, not the liberal justices — responded by talking about the obstacles that black and Latino students must overcome. The defenders of affirmative action spoke instead about the value of diversity. Without diverse college classes, they argued, students will learn less and society will lack for future leaders.
The decision to emphasize diversity over fairness is one that affirmative-action proponents made long before Wednesday, and it is a big reason they find themselves in such a vulnerable position today.
Americans value diversity. But they value fairness more. Most people oppose a college’s or employer’s rejecting an applicant who appears qualified for the sake of creating a group that demographically resembles the country.
With affirmative action boiled down to a diversity program, it finds itself in retreat. Five of the six states that have held referendums on racial preferences have banned them, including California and Florida. The Supreme Court limited the legal forms of preferences in 2003 and suggested that they had only 25 years left. Based on last week’s oral arguments, and the fact that Justice Anthony Kennedy has never voted to uphold preferences, the court may restrict them further or forbid them.
Yet supporters of affirmative action do not necessarily need to despair. They still have apath open to them, one that remains legal and popular. It involves resurrecting Johnson’s vision of an affirmative action program based on fairness, which the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. also favored.
The crucial choice that affirmative-action proponents made long ago was to focus the program on race rather than more broadly on disadvantage.
There were some obvious reasons to do so. Americans have never been comfortable talking about class. It reeks of the social order the country rejected at its founding (Britain’s) and of the economic system the country spent decades fighting (communism). But race was an undeniably American problem, from slavery to civil rights to the discrimination that, according to voluminous social-science research, lingers.
By forgoing a broader view of disadvantage, colleges lost the ability to claim that their overriding goal was meritocracy. “That was the key moment, when they forfeited fairness,”Richard D. Kahlenberg of the Century Foundation, who has written a book about affirmative action, told me.
Institutions using affirmative action could not claim to be bringing everybody — rich and poor, white and black, native and immigrant — up to the same starting line, in Mr. Johnson’s formulation. They instead were creating a system that depended on racial categories.
From a legal perspective, the decision made the supporters’ task harder. The very laws intended to address the country’s racial history set a high bar for any race-based system. In its first major affirmative-action ruling, the Bakke case of 1978, the Supreme Court rejected the notion that society-wide discrimination justified preferences for individuals. The court reaffirmed that finding in 2003, while also reaffirming that diversity was a legitimate rationale.
It is impossible to know whether affirmative action could have had a more enduring foundation were it based on a broader equal-opportunity approach. Proponents never tried this alternative. Courts, however, have consistently upheld socioeconomic preferences. Had black and Latino students been benefiting from those preferences, as many would, at least some portion of affirmative action might be in less peril.
But the liberals behind the great successes of the civil rights and women’s movements never showed as much interest in economic diversity. On college campuses, administrators have insisted for years that they care about disadvantage, beyond race, but they have done relatively little about it. They have preferred a version of diversity focused on elites from every race.
Black and Latino college applicants, as well as athletes and so-called legacies, receive large preferences — the equivalent of 150 to 300 SAT points. Low-income students, controlling for race, receive either no preference or a modest one, depending on which study you believe. At the country’s 200 most selective colleges, a mere 5 percent of students come from the bottom 25 percent of the income spectrum, according to Anthony P. Carnevale of Georgetown. In court on Wednesday, Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. attacked the political underbelly of this system. The University of Texas argued that diversity within racial groups was also important, citing “the African-American or Hispanic child of successful professionals in Dallas.” Skeptically, Justice Alito asked the university’s lawyer, “They deserve a leg up against, let’s say, an Asian or a white applicant whose parents are absolutely average?”
Justice Kennedy followed up by telling the lawyer, in one of the most quoted lines of the day, “So what you’re saying is that what counts is race above all.”
Even in California, which has banned racial preferences, race can still dominate the debate. Richard H. Sander, a law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, has found some hard-to-explain patterns in U.C.L.A.’s undergraduate admissions. The college has accepted a significantly higher percentage of blacks and Latinos than whites and Asians with the same “holistic score,” a number the admissions office gives to every applicant, based on test scores, grades, extracurricular activities and obstacles overcome. U.C.L.A. officials say that the holistic scores do not fully capture the obstacles some students face.
Back in the 1960s, Dr. King understood the vulnerability of today’s affirmative action. “Many white workers whose economic condition is not too far removed from the economic condition of his black brother will find it difficult to accept,” he wrote in a private letter, “special consideration to the Negro in the context of unemployment, joblessness, etc. and does not take into sufficient account their plight (that of the white worker).”
If the courts and voters continue to restrict racial preferences, supporters will have three options. They can give up, which is unlikely. They can quietly subvert the law, as some critics, like Mr. Sander, believe is happening in California. Or they can attempt an overhaul of affirmative action.
The economic argument for a different version has only become stronger over time. Outright racism certainly exists, and colleges would have a hard time taking it into account if race-based affirmative action became illegal. But simple discrimination seems to have become a relatively smaller obstacle over the last few decades, while socioeconomic disadvantage has become a larger one.
The title of a recent paper by Roland G. Fryer Jr., a Harvard economist, summarizes the trends: “Racial inequality in the 21st century: The declining significance of discrimination.”
Racial gaps remain large enough that colleges would struggle to recruit as many black and Latino students without explicitly taking race into account. But some experts, like Mr. Kahlenberg, think they could come close. To do so, they would need to consider not just income, but also wealth, family structure and neighborhood poverty. Those factors disproportionately afflict black and Latino students — and hold back children from life’s starting line.
Mr. Kahlenberg argues that wealth is especially defensible, because it can capture discrimination’s intergenerational effects. Some universities in states where racial preferences are banned, including California, have begun taking small steps to consider class more fully.
Until the Supreme Court rules, sometime next year, the focus will be on its decision. And its decision matters. Yet the choices that universities make matter, too. You wouldn’t have known it from sitting in the courtroom, but there is a version of affirmative action — legal, generally popular and arguably more meritocratic — that higher education has not yet even tried.
David Leonhardt is the Washington bureau chief of The New York Times.

domingo, 14 de outubro de 2012

Famintos do mundo: o bilhao imaginario - The Economist

Burocracias, governamentais e internacionais, e politicas publicas antimercado, contribuem para a fome.


Feast and famine

Demography and development

Hunger

Not a billion after all

The Economist, Oct 10th 2012, 10:24 by J.P.
IN 2010, as food prices were spiking for the second time in three years, governments, international agencies and non-government organisations blared out a new and powerful fact: there were a billion hungry people in the world and this, they said, in a period of plenty, was a disgrace. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), which had estimated the figure in an annual report, even had the words ‘one billion hungry’ draped in letters 50 feet high outside its headquarters building in Rome. The number of hungry people in the world is indeed a disgrace. But there was one problem with the precise figure: it was completely bogus. This week, in its 2012 report on the state of food insecurity in the world, the FAO quietly revised it down to 868m and got rid of the spike in the numbers that had supposedly occurred in 2008-10.

The charts above show the new estimates (left hand panel) compared with those for 2010 (right hand panel). Detailed comparisons are complicated by the fact that many of the plots are for slightly different periods. But the big change is clear: instead of a sharp rise and fall in 2008-10, tracking the world food-price spike, the number of hungry people stayed stable throughout the 2000s. For developing countries, the new hunger estimates are lower after the price spike than they had been before it, falling from 885m in 2004-05 to 852m in 2010-12.
There are statistical and methodological explanations for the change. The 2010 report used the computer model of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to estimate the impact of high food prices. The USDA model is primarily designed to calculate how much food countries need to import. So it pays a lot of attention to trade and to importing nations but does not do such a good job of explaining what is going on in countries that are self sufficient or which use price and other controls to reduce the impact of world-price movements on domestic prices. These include China, India and Indonesia, the three largest developing countries. There, increases in staple-food prices were very small in 2007-10. In contrast, the new methodology pays more attention to daily diets and habitual consumption. This means it provides better estimates of chronic undernourishment but, as the report itself says, “does not fully capture the effects of price spikes.”
The FAO has also improved its data collection. New figures for the vast amount of food that gets wasted on farms and in shops pushed up the figures for the number of hungry people in 1990 (from 850m to 1 billion) but not in 2010-12. This alone accounts for much of the decline in hunger numbers in the past 20 years.
At the same time, there is a “real” reason for the lower estimates of hunger (ie, independent of methodological or statistical changes). The great recession of 2008-09 resulted in only mild slowdowns in most developing countries, so incomes were less affected than was expected: people could afford to keep buying food. At the same time the spread of conditional-cash transfers and other programmes to help the poor seems to have been remarkably effective at sheltering the worst off from the impact of price rises. In short, poor countries turned out to less vulnerable to food crises than previously thought.
The new estimates have significant implications. The world is not doing quite such a bad job of feeding itself as many people fear. At the moment, food prices are rising again for the third time in five years, leading to renewed worries about a food crisis and to demands for drastic intervention in world food markets (banning exports or taxing “commodity speculators”, for example). The new figures suggest the worries may be overdone and so are the demands that accompany them. The supply response to high prices seems to be better than expected. Social-protection measures seem to work. A simple measure of how well the world is doing is the first millennium development goal which calls for halving the proportion of people who suffer from hunger between 1990 and 2015, ie from 23% in 1990 to 11.5% in 2015. The proportion now is 14.9, only slightly above target.
That said, hunger is still high and, in two parts of the world, is growing. In sub-Saharan Africa, the number of hungry people rose by 1m a year in 2000-05 but by more than 6m a year between 2007-09 and 2010-12. In the Middle East and North Africa, there are almost twice as many hungry people now as there were in 1990-92 (41m compared with 22m). It is also worth saying that undernutrition may not have spiked, the world still faces a big problem of poor nutrition (lack of micro-nutrients, as opposed to lack of calories). So the news is good on average, but not everywhere.
It may still take some time to be believed. The notion that there are a billion hungry people was so widely trumpeted that it has taken on a life of its own. On the very day the new FAO figures appeared, Gordon Conway, a professor at Imperial College London, published a (very good) book on food called—you guessed it—One Billion Hungry. Even the UN’s own food bureaucracies have not caught up with the new facts. The same report that details the new numbers also contains a contribution from four UN food agencies (including the FAO) to the big environmental conference held in Rio de Janeiro this July (the Rio +20 meeting). It refers to the old numbers.

Progressos do Apartheid oficial no Brasil: cotas gerais, extensas, permanentes


Folha de S.Paulo, 14/10/2012 - 06h00

Dilma vai criar cota para negro no serviço público

JOÃO CARLOS MAGALHÃES
NATUZA NERY
DE BRASÍLIA

O Palácio do Planalto prepara o anúncio para este ano de um amplo pacote de ações afirmativas que inclui a adoção de cotas para negros no funcionalismo federal.
A medida, defendida pessoalmente pela presidente Dilma Rousseff, atingiria tanto os cargos comissionados quanto os concursados.
O percentual será definido após avaliação das áreas jurídica e econômica da Casa Civil, já em andamento.
O plano deve ser anunciado no final de novembro, quando se comemora o Dia da Consciência Negra (dia 20) e estarão resolvidos dois assuntos que dominam o noticiário: as eleições municipais e o julgamento do mensalão.
O delineamento do plano nacional de ações afirmativas ocorre dois meses depois de o governo ter mobilizado sua base no Congresso para aprovar lei que expandiu as cotas em universidades federais.
Folha teve acesso às propostas. Elas foram compiladas pela Seppir (Secretaria de Políticas de Promoção da Igualdade Racial) e estão distribuídas em três grandes eixos: trabalho, educação e cultura-comunicação.
A cota no funcionalismo público federal está no primeiro capítulo: propõe piso de 30% para negros nas vagas criadas a partir da aprovação da legislação. Hoje, o Executivo tem cerca de 574 mil funcionários civis.
No mesmo eixo está a ideia de criar incentivos fiscais para a iniciativa privada fixar metas de preenchimento de vagas de trabalho por negros.
Ou seja, o empresário não ficaria obrigado a contratar ninguém, mas seria financeiramente recompensado se optasse por seguir a política racial do governo federal.
Outra medida prevê punição para as empresas que comprovadamente discriminem pessoas em razão da sua cor de pele. Essas firmas seriam vetadas em licitações.
EDUCAÇÃO E CULTURA
No campo da cultura, há uma decisão de criar incentivos para produtores culturais negros. Na semana passada, a ministra Marta Suplicy (Cultura) já anunciou que serão lançados editais exclusivos para essa parte da população.
No eixo educação, há ao menos três propostas principais: 1) monitorar a situação de negros cotistas depois de formados; 2) oferecer aos cotistas, durante a graduação, auxílio financeiro; 3) reservar a negros parte das bolsas do Ciências sem Fronteira, programa do governo federal que financia estudos no exterior.
A implantação de ações afirmativas é uma exigência do Estatuto da Igualdade Racial, aprovado pelo Congresso em 2010, o último ano do segundo mandato de Lula.
Segundo o estatuto, é negro aquele que se diz preto ou pardo --juntas, essas duas autodefinições compõem mais da metade dos 191 milhões de brasileiros, de acordo com o Censo de 2010.
ESSENCIAL
O plano é tido no governo como essencial para diminuir a desigualdade gerada por diferenças de cor e ampliar a queda na concentração de renda na última década.
Nesse sentido, o plano, ao usar unicamente critérios raciais, seria mais cirúrgico do que o sistema de cotas aprovado pelos congressistas em agosto, que reserva metade das vagas nas federais para alunos egressos de escolas públicas e, apenas nessa fatia, institui a ocupação prioritária por negros e índios.
Politicamente, será um forte aceno da gestão Dilma aos movimentos sociais, com os quais mantém uma relação distante e, em alguns momentos, conflituosa --como durante a onda de greves de servidores neste semestre.
Editoria de Arte/Folhapress

Antigamente, no tempo em que os animais falavam...

...muito antigamente, um certo partido que dizia se pautar na ética para fazer política -- ou será que ele apenas fazia a política da ética, usando esta última de forma fraudulenta apenas para ter vantagens políticas? -- tinha por hábito expulsar de seus quadros todos aqueles que tinha incorrido em desvios éticos, justamente, e a mais forte razão todos aqueles que fossem condenados por atos de corrupção, de malversação, de roubo, enfim, de qualquer crime tipificado no Código Penal.
Lembro-me de dois ou três casos nessa linha, um, pelo menos, envolvendo um parlamentar, os demais funcionários do partido ou simples militantes da causa.

Pois bem: quando é que esse partido vai expulsar três, pelo menos, dos seus condenados?
Estamos esperando.
Ou aquela postura não era para valer?
Ou valia só para os "bagrinhos", e não para os "mais iguais"?

Ficam as perguntas, mas não espero respostas...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida 

sábado, 13 de outubro de 2012

Deja vu comercial, all over again: de volta aos anos 1950-60?


Na mira da OMC

Editorial O Estado de S.Paulo, 13 de outubro de 2012

Nem todas as medidas adotadas pelo governo brasileiro para proteger a produção nacional ferem as regras do comércio internacional, mas nem todas estão inteiramente de acordo com as normas e, assim, livres de contestações formais na Organização Mundial do Comércio (OMC) que podem resultar em alguma forma de sanção. Todas, porém, têm sido alvo de críticas cada vez mais acerbas dos principais parceiros comerciais do Brasil, pois afetam o livre fluxo de bens e serviços, o que tem forçado o governo brasileiro, em alguns momentos, a elevar o tom para tentar justificar suas decisões. Nem assim, porém, o Brasil tem conseguido convencer os críticos.
"A atitude do Brasil manda um sinal negativo e deve afetar o fluxo de investimentos diretos para o País", advertiu a União Europeia na reunião do Comitê de Investimentos da OMC realizada em Genebra. A crítica - acompanhada da ameaça velada de suspensão de investimentos - se referia ao fato de que medidas de proteção da indústria brasileira anunciadas como temporárias e de emergência tendem a se perenizar.
Uma das decisões do governo brasileiro mais criticadas na OMC foi a imposição de alíquotas diferenciadas do IPI para os automóveis, com aumento de até 30 pontos para aqueles com menos de 65% de conteúdo nacional. Essa medida, de acordo com seus críticos, é discriminatória e, por isso, passível de sanção pela OMC.
Também representantes dos Estados Unidos, do Japão e da Austrália na OMC criticaram o aumento da taxação dos automóveis estrangeiros no mercado brasileiro, bem como a exigência de pelo menos 60% de conteúdo nacional para as empresas poderem participar dos leilões para telefonia de quarta geração (4G), o primeiro dos quais foi realizado em junho.
Em geral, o governo brasileiro tem respondido às críticas com acusações. Tem dito, por exemplo, que os países ricos também são protecionistas, sobretudo na agricultura. Quanto aos Estados Unidos, a crítica da presidente Dilma Rousseff - e repetida por ela no discurso de abertura da Cúpula América do Sul-Países Árabes realizada em Lima, no Peru - é ao que chamou de "tsunami monetário", que desvaloriza o dólar e, assim, torna os produtos americanos mais competitivos, constituindo o que ela considera um "protecionismo disfarçado".
Já a diplomata Márcia Donner Abreu, respondendo às críticas na reunião do Comitê de Investimentos da OMC, afirmou que as medidas tomadas pelo governo brasileiro não são discriminatórias, atendem às regras do comércio internacional e se destinam a melhorar a competitividade do Brasil. O representante americano reagiu com ironia, perguntando se conteúdo nacional implicava uma "tecnologia brasileira", e como seria definida essa tecnologia.
São variadas as medidas protecionistas que o Brasil passou a utilizar nos últimos tempos, sob a alegação de que elas são necessárias para evitar danos à economia decorrente do súbito aumento das importações. Entre elas estão o aumento das tarifas de IPI, das tarifas do Imposto de Importação para 100 produtos (ainda que dentro dos limites permitidos pela OMC), a inclusão proximamente de mais 100 itens na lista dos que terão sua taxação elevada e aumento do rigor dos controles administrativos e da fiscalização, que retardam a entrada de produtos estrangeiros no País.
A prática deverá demonstrar que medidas como essas não compensam as dificuldades crescentes que, por causa delas, o País enfrenta no relacionamento com seus principais parceiros comerciais nem são eficazes para melhorar a produção interna. Por enquanto, o descontentamento dos principais parceiros com as medidas protecionistas tomadas pelo Brasil tem se limitado aos questionamentos cada vez mais frequentes e mais enfáticos na OMC. No plano interno, porém, o aumento do protecionismo torna o setor produtivo mais acomodado e cada vez menos disposto a se modernizar, buscar mais eficiência e oferecer ao consumidor brasileiro bens de qualidade internacional.
O País já viu isso acontecer - e pagou caro.

Liberdade na Estrada: palestras previstas


BRASIL PAÍS DO FUTURO:
ATÉ QUANDO?

De 17 de outubro a 08 de novembro



Desde 2009, o Liberdade na Estrada tem levado a mensagem da liberdade para estudantes e acadêmicos Brasil afora, expondo conceitos e abordando problemas brasileiros sob a perspectiva liberal. Ao longo das 3 edições realizadas, mais de 2.500 estudantes em 14 das maiores cidades do Brasil participarem das palestras e debates do Liberdade na Estrada.
Em 2012, passaremos por 13 universidades de Sul, Sudeste, Nordeste e Distrito Federal. Tendo por base o tema “Brasil, país do futuro: até quando?”, levaremos um time de intelectuais e acadêmicos de destaque no contexto brasileiro e internacional que abordará os principais desafios que se colocam ao futuro do Brasil, sob seus aspectos econômicos, políticos, culturais e sociais.
Ver a programação no link: http://www.liberdadenaestrada.com.br/
  • Brasília

    • 8/11 (quinta-feira), às 19h
      UnB

    Palestrantes

    • Adolfo Sachsida
      Adolfo Sachsida
    • Paulo Roberto de Almeida
      Paulo Roberto de
      Almeida
  • BRASIL PAÍS DO FUTURO:
    ATÉ QUANDO?

    De 17 de outubro a 08 de novembro

  • Desde 2009, o Liberdade na Estrada tem levado a mensagem da liberdade para estudantes e acadêmicos Brasil afora, expondo conceitos e abordando problemas brasileiros sob a perspectiva liberal. Ao longo das 3 edições realizadas, mais de 2.500 estudantes em 14 das maiores cidades do Brasil participarem das palestras e debates do Liberdade na Estrada.
    Em 2012, passaremos por 13 universidades de Sul, Sudeste, Nordeste e Distrito Federal. Tendo por base o tema “Brasil, país do futuro: até quando?”, levaremos um time de intelectuais e acadêmicos de destaque no contexto brasileiro e internacional que abordará os principais desafios que se colocam ao futuro do Brasil, sob seus aspectos econômicos, políticos, culturais e sociais.
    • Realização

      Ordem Livre Atlas Network
    • Apoio nacional

      Estudantes Pela Liberdade
    • Patrocínio

      Smith Family Foundation
    • Adolfo Sachsida
    • Adriano Gianturco
    • Adrualdo Catão
    • André Ramos
    • Diogo Costa
    • Fabio Barbieri
    • Fabio Ostermann
    • Fernando Ulrich
    • Gabriel Benarrós
    • Helio Beltrão
    • José Pio Martins
    • Leandro Narloch
    • Paulo Roberto de Almeida
    • Rodrigo Constantino
    • Ronald Hillbrecht
    • Ronald Hillbrecht

      Ronald Hillbrecht
      Mestre em Economia pela USP e Ph.D. pela University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Professor Associado da FCE/UFRGS e do PPGE/UFRGS. Membro fundador do IDERS (Instituto de Direito e Economia do RS) e ex-Coordenador do Mestrado Profissionalizante em Economia do PPGE/UFRGS.

Historia: Italia declara guerra a Alemanha (13/10/1943)

Das páginas do New York Times, This Day [13 de outubro de 1943) in History:


BIGGEST PACIFIC AIR FLEET BOMBS RABAUL; WRECKS 177 PLANES, 123 SHIPS IN SURPRISE; BADOGLIO, DECLARING WAR, RALLIES ITALY



REICH'S ACTS CITED
Italian Marshal Lists German Attacks as Cause of War
URGES PEOPLE TO FIGHT
He Tells Eisenhower That 'All Ties' With 'Dreadful Past' Are Broken--Backs Democracy
By MILTON BRACKER
By Wireless to The New York Times
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OTHER HEADLINESSenators Draw Up a Post-War Pledge on Collaboration: Subcommittee Votes 7 to 1 for International Cooperation to Halt Aggressors: House Measure Shelved: Connally Says Full Committee and Senate Are Both Likely to Adopt Resolution
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Ships in Rabaul Bay Scurry But Are Bombed Into Flames
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Auto Club Asks Easing of Dimout; Says Police Allow Some Revision
Churchill Rebuke to 'Politicians' Is Believed Aimed at U.S. Group
Algiers, Oct. 13--Italy declared war on Nazi Germany, her former Axis partner, at 3 P.M. today, Greenwich time [11 A.M. in New York].
Acting on orders of King Victor Emmanuel as transmitted by Marshal Pietro Badoglio, the Italian Ambassador in Madrid notified the German Ambassador there that:
"In the face of repeated and intensified acts of war committed against Italians by the armed forces of Germany, from 1500 hours Greenwich time on the thirteenth day of October Italy considers herself in a state of war with Germany."
Thus the defeated nation led into war by Benito Mussolini re-entered it against its former ally through a curt diplomatic exchange in the capital of the country in which they had first collaborated on a military basis seven years ago.
Asks People to Avenge Ferocity
Excoriating the nation that now occupies Italy's own "Eternal City" as well as the entire industrial north, Marshal Badoglio in a proclamation to the Italian people exhorted them all to avenge the inhuman ferocity of the German Army at Naples and in other areas.
And in a five-sentence note to Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower, Mussolini's successor as head of the Italian Government told the Allied Commander in Chief that all ties with the "dreadful past" were broken and that his government would be proud "to march with you to inevitable victory." He asked General Eisenhower to communicate the decision to Britain, the United States, Russia and the other United Nations with which in his proclamation he said Italy would now march forward "shoulder to shoulder" to the end.
His Government, the septuagenarian marshal asserted in his proclamation to the Italian people, will soon be completed, and to guarantee its functioning as a truly democratic administration the representatives of "every political party" will be asked to participate. Moreover, the man with whom the Allies negotiated the armistice of Sept. 3 pledged that the present arrangement would in no way impair the "untrammeled right of the people of Italy to choose their own form of democratic government when peace is restored."
There could be no such peace, Marshal Badoglio said in the proclamation, so long as a single German remained on Italian soil. He reiterated in a statement to the press issued at his headquarters in Italy that his Government had no intention of interfering with the right of the Italian people to a free choice of the government they desire "for the not less important tasks of peace and reconstruction."
Cites Ouster of Mussolini
Marshal Badoglio cited the fact that the decree dissolving the Chamber of Fasces and Corporations--which accompanied the ousting of Mussolini in July--had effectually indicated the Government's intention. It was therein provided that elections would be held four months after the end of hostilities.
"What was said then is reaffirmed now," Marshal Badoglio said. "The present Government has clearly defined the task of leading the country until peace has been won. With that its mandate will cease."
The New York Times' exclusive story on the declaration this morning took the edge off the surprise of the announcement here this afternoon, but even without that the news would not have been so much of a surprise here as the news of the armistice thirty-five days ago.
It had been known for weeks--and this correspondent among others had said--that negotiations between the Allies and Marshal Badoglio were continuing with a view to formalizing Italy's war role from now on.
A major consideration was public opinion--just how the Allies intend to cope with the obvious criticism that is sure to arise in many quarters. There will be cries of "Darlanism" and much blinking in puzzlement among many Americans and Britons who have not yet forgotten the fact that our troops were shooting at and being shot at by Italians until very recently.
But as of the moment that the decision was formalized, with the Italian Ambassador at Madrid actually handing the document of notification to the German Ambassador there, it can be assumed that Washington and London had pretty well resolved the problem. This is about the way the two governments and their military High Command are understood to feel about it.
Question of Italian Army
The Italian Army as such cannot be regarded in its present state as an important striking force because of its great losses of man and equipment, but primarily because the all-important will to fight had been observed as very low for a long time preceding the armistice. At the same time Italian hatred of the Germans unquestionably grew as the fighting spirit waned, and episodes between German and Italian soldiers and civilians before and after the armistice have shown pretty clearly a complete and incontrovertible end of all sympathy between the former Axis partners.
Therefore, it seemed reasonable to take advantage of the Italians' willingness, even eagerness, to pin their hopes of a better role in the peace settlement to the status of co-belligerency now. As co-belligerents, which the Italians now become by virtue of the documents published today, even though the Allies have not said so in so many words, the Italians will be able to help the Allies in a great many ways, even if not as fellow- soldiers in the front lines.
Although nothing has been said officially as to exactly how the Italians will be employed in the rest of the war, it is almost universally believed that a lingering feeling between them and their recent enemies would militate against their efficiently joining in the actual battlefront.
At the same time, there is obviously an enormous amount of behind-the-lines work, particularly in their own country, where the Italians can be of enormous use. In all matters of supply, in furnishing guards over military property, as a collective liaison agency between advancing Allies and the liberated Italian people, there is no doubt that the Italians can contribute a major service to the Allied cause.
Italy's Position in War
This can be understood better when viewed negatively. If the Allies had turned down Italy's plea to be accepted as a co-belligerent, she would naturally have remained a defeated enemy. As such much Allied military strength would have had to be diverted to administering her disbanded army and her liberated but not militarily controlled territory.
As this correspondent wrote several times, the new status of Italy means a new and minimized role for the Allied Military Government, but at the same time it means giving the Italians more faith in those who defeated them, pride in having a share in the cleansing of their own territory of the hated Germans, and an opportunity actually to play an important role in ultimate victory.
Another highly important consideration behind the decision of the Allies to permit the Italian declaration was the probable effect on the populations of the occupied parts of Italy. Even with the status as it was up to this afternoon, the Allies had reason to be hopeful that the great laboring populations of Milan, Turin and Genoa would turn against the Germans in the same way the French and other European victims of Hitler had turned against the occupying forces.
Now, it may be argued, many persons north of the present Allied front will see in the advancing forces not only foreign armies considerably less odious than those they are driving out but Italian forces themselves. And no matter how limited is the extent to which the Italian troops are employed, that will nevertheless be true to some degree.
The question of who will figure in marshal Badoglio's completed government has been bruited about ever since the armistice. So far the only names released as officially connected with the Italian marshal are those of his military, naval and air aides who accompanied him on the visit to General Eisenhower Sept. 29. These also included Count Aquarone, Minister of Finance.
But it is uniformly agreed that outsiders will have to be brought in and, of course, Count Carlo Sforza's name has cropped up most often. He is now en route here.
But Count Sforza has said he will not actually be part of the Badoglio Government, although he will lend his influence and aid to the general project of kicking the Germans out. As Marshal Badoglio has said, the single objective is to free the country of Germans, and on that basis, it ought to be possible to unite many Italian leaders who otherwise are separated by vast political differences. Another hitch is that so many potential candidates are in German hands.
Attitude of the French
The attitude of the French Committee of National Liberation here remains generally calm, although there is still no love between the French and the Italians as the simple fact of newsreels showing Italians proves. But with Rene Massigli to direct its foreign relations and both Gen. Charles de Gaulle and Henri-Honore Giraud thoroughly aware of the primary military nature of the new arrangement, it is very unlikely that the French will make a formal protest.
At the time of the armistice they were most piqued, not by the armistice of course, but by the fact that it had been negotiated without their participation.
The establishment of the Politico-Military Commission, with France sharing membership with Russia, the United States and Britain, has helped to bring the committee into the swiftly enlarging Mediterranean picture and will undoubtedly help to alleviate any sting that the recognition of Italy as a co-belligerent might otherwise have provoked.
A member of the Committee of National Liberation said tonight that the Italian matter would undoubtedly be discussed at a regular meeting tomorrow morning, but he doubted that any formal comment would be issued. It was this man's opinion that many persons in France, particularly southeastern France, would be interested in the development. He said it was obvious from the background of French-Italian relations since 1938 that acceptance of the Italians as co-belligerents could hardly be seriously stomached by these French.
Many will never forget the circumstances of the Italian declaration of war against France. But the French spokesman also was sure the committee had come too far since those days to be seriously piqued by what is plainly a military step. Moreover, he cited a guarantee in the Allied leader's declaration that nothing growing out of the new status of Italy would be permitted to constitute inconsistence with the armistice terms. Beyond that he thought the French were prepared to await eventualities.
There may be a problem in Corsica, where 80,000 Italians have retained an army, which the patriots who figured in the liberation there would very much like to take over, as well as all of its transport.

Cuba Almost Became a Nuclear Power in 1962 - Foreign Policy


Cuba Almost Became a Nuclear Power in 1962

The scariest moment in history was even scarier than we thought.

BY SVETLANA SAVRANSKAYA | Foreign Policy, October 10, 2012

Cuba would have become the first nuclear power in Latin America 50 years ago, if not for the dynamics captured in this remarkable verbatim transcript -- published here for the first time -- of Fidel Castro's excruciating meeting with Soviet deputy prime minister Anastas Mikoyan, on November 22, 1962. The document comes from the personal archive of his son, the late Sergo Mikoyan, which was donated to theNational Security Archive and which appears for the first time in English this month in the new book, The Soviet Cuban Missile Crisis.
Long after the world thought the Cuban Missile Crisis had ended, with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev's withdrawal of his medium-range nuclear missiles announced on October 28 -- and two days after President John F. Kennedy announced the lifting of the quarantine around Cuba -- the secret crisis still simmered. Unknown to the Americans, the Soviets had brought some 100 tactical nuclear weapons to Cuba -- 80 nuclear-armed front cruise missiles (FKRs), 12 nuclear warheads for dual-use Luna short-range rockets, and 6 nuclear bombs for IL-28 bombers. Even with the pullout of the strategic missiles, the tacticals would stay, and Soviet documentation reveals the intention of training the Cubans to use them.
But Fidel Castro was livid. Khrushchev had not consulted or even informed Castro about any deals with the Americans -- Fidel heard about the missile withdrawal from the radio. The Cuban leader refused to go along with any onsite inspections in Cuba, and raised further demands. The Soviets had their own Cuban crisis: They had to take back what the Americans called the "offensive weapons," get the U.S. to confirm its non-invasion pledge, and most importantly, keep Cuba as an ally. At the Soviet Presidium, everyone agreed only one man could achieve such a resolution: Anastas Mikoyan.
Mikoyan arrived in Cuba on November 2, 1962, and over 20 days of often-bitter conversations with Cuban leaders -- culminating in this tense meeting -- Mikoyan began to appreciate the danger tactical nuclear weapons posed if they were left on the island, especially in Cuban hands. On one day, Castro would refuse to see Mikoyan; on another, Fidel would order his anti-aircraft crews to shoot at the American surveillance planes.
The final straw apparently came on November 20, when Castro sent instructions to Cuba's representative at the United Nations, Carlos Lechuga, to mention "we have tactical nuclear weapons, which we should keep" -- partly as leverage in negotiations over inspections, also to establish the fact that the weapons were in Cuban possession. Extremely worried, Mikoyan cabled the Soviet Presidium that he now planned to inform the Cuban leader that all tactical nuclear weapons would be withdrawn from Cuba. Mikoyan had to break this unpleasant news to his hosts, and he had to do it in such a way that they would remain Soviet allies.
This four-hour conversation on November 22 provided the final blow to the Cuban revolutionaries, now that the Soviet Union was removing all the weapons for which Cuba had to suffer so much. Castro opened the conversation saying that he was in a bad mood because Kennedy stated in his speech that all nuclear weapons were removed from Cuba, but surely the tacticals were still on the island. Mikoyan confirmed that "the Soviet government has not given any promises regarding the removal of the tactical nuclear weapons. The Americans do not even have any information that they are in Cuba." But the Soviet government itself, said Mikoyan, not under U.S. pressure, has now decided to take them back.
Castro's mood only got worse. Now the tacticals were coming out. Already the Soviets had given in to American pressure on the IL-28 bombers (technically the bombers could reach Florida so they qualified as "offensive" and they were nuclear capable). Mikoyan tried to persuade Castro that "as far as Il-28s are concerned, you know yourself that they are outdated. Presently, it is best to use them as a target plane." Castro retorts: "And why did you send them to us then?"
Castro was very emotional and at times rough with Mikoyan -- he criticized the Soviet military for failing to camouflage the missiles, for not using their anti-aircraft launchers to shoot down U.S. U-2 spy planes, essentially allowing them to photograph the sites. He went back to the initial offer of missiles and stated that the Cubans did not want the missiles, they only accepted the weapons as part of "fulfilling their duty to the socialist camp." The Cubans were ready to die in a nuclear war and were hoping that the Soviet Union would be also willing "to do the same for us." But the Soviets did not treat the Cubans as a partner, they caved in under U.S. pressure, and did not even consult the Cubans about the withdrawal. Castro expressed the humiliation the Cubans felt: "What do you think we are? A zero on the left, a dirty rag. We tried to help the Soviet Union to get out of a difficult situation."
In desperation, Castro almost begged Mikoyan to leave the tactical warheads in Cuba, especially because the Americans were not aware of them and they were not part of the agreement between Kennedy and Khrushchev. Castro claimed that the situation now was even worse than it was before the crisis -- Cuba was defenseless, and the U.S. non-invasion assurances did not mean much for the Cubans. But Mikoyan rejected Castro's pleas and cited a (nonexistent) Soviet law proscribing the transfer of nuclear weapons to third countries. Castro had a suggestion: "So you have a law that prohibits transfer of tactical nuclear weapons to other countries? It's a pity. And when are you going to repeal that law?" Mikoyan was non-committal: "We will see. It is our right [to do so]."
This ended Cuba's hope to become a Latin American nuclear power.
Ironically, if the Cubans were a little more pliant, and a little less independent, if they were more willing to be Soviet pawns, they would have kept the tactical nuclear weapons on the island. But they showed themselves to be much more than just a parking lot for the Soviet missiles. Cuba was a major independent variable of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Mikoyan treated his Cuban hosts with great empathy and respect, while being highly critical of his own political and military leadership. He admired the genuine character of the Cuban revolution, he saw its appeal for Latin America. But he also saw the danger of the situation spiraling out of control probably better than other leaders in this tense triangle, and thus brought about the final resolution of the crisis.
The following transcript was prepared by a Soviet note-taker, with the Soviet ambassador to Cuba, Alexandr Alexeyev, translating for Mikoyan.
Mikoyan Castro Memcon 11 22 62.PDF