Iran awaits Trump - Golnar Motevalli (Bloomberg’s Balance of Power)

Iran awaits Trump

Golnar Motevalli

Bloomberg’s Balance of Power

November 25, 2024

Few countries will be as troubled about Donald Trump’s return to the White House as Iran.

During his first term, the Islamic Republic became a primary target of Trump’s foreign-policy team, which quickly set about dismantling the landmark 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, triggering a crisis in the Persian Gulf that almost led to war.

This time around, Trump faces a Middle East transformed — one that will be far less accommodating to a reiteration of his so-called “maximum pressure” policy against Iran. It’s also engulfed in violent conflict involving his closest ally in the region, Israel.

While Trump had the backing of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over Iran in his first term, Iran has been busy mending bridges with its Gulf Arab neighbors.

The government in Tehran has developed a level of resilience to the uncertainty that Trump brings — there is little left, materially, that he can sanction. Tehran has also been moving closer to Russia and China.

It’s unclear what Trump has in mind for Iran — some of his cabinet picks indicate that he wants to replay maximum pressure, others signal a disdain for foreign intervention and conflict — but Tehran can’t withstand much more turmoil.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has given the nod to a reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, to seek sanctions relief and negotiations with the US.

Iran’s population has been buckling under the pressure of both sanctions and an increasingly authoritarian theocracy for some time. Khamenei’s system has never been more unpopular.

With memories of the 2022 uprising still raw, Tehran can’t afford to ignore Trump. But the incoming US president, too, will have to recognize that the region has changed.

 Golnar Motevalli