O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;

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Mostrando postagens com marcador Invasão. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador Invasão. Mostrar todas as postagens

sábado, 12 de março de 2022

O G7 adotou a única postura possível, a do Direito Internacional, a da Justiça; o G20 e o Brasil não têm a mesma postura digna

 O G7 já se pronunciou, claramente e unissonamente, em favor da Ucrânia, contra a agressão russa contra o país. Já o G20, em função da postura vergonhosamente "neutra", "imparcial" ou "equilibrada" de países como o Brasil, não conseguiu tomar posição.

O Brasil de Bolsonaro está realmente do outro lado do mundo.

Paulo Roberto de Almeida


 G7 Leaders’ Statement 


Berlin, 11 March 2022 


We the Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) remain resolved to stand with the Ukrainian people and government who heroically resist Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military aggression and war of choice against their sovereign nation. This unprovoked and unjustified attack is causing enormous suffering and a tragic loss of life, including through the increasingly indiscriminate bombing and shelling of civilians in schools, homes, and hospitals. 


We are united in our determination to hold President Putin and his regime accountable for this unjustified and unprovoked war that has already isolated Russia in the world. The world should join together in calling on President Putin and his regime to immediately stop its ongoing assault against Ukraine and withdraw its military forces. We stand in solidarity with those who are bravely opposing the invasion of Ukraine. 

We urge Russia to ensure safe and unhindered humanitarian access to victims of its assault in Ukraine, and to allow safe passage for civilians wishing to leave. We call for, and commit to provide, humanitarian, medical and financial support to refugees from Ukraine. 

Since President Putin launched the Russian Federation’s invasion on February 24, our countries have imposed expansive restrictive measures that have severely compromised Russia’s economy and financial system, as evidenced by the massive market reactions. We have collectively isolated key Russian banks from the global financial system; blunted the Central Bank of Russia´s ability to utilise its foreign reserves; imposed sweeping export bans and controls that cut Russia off from our advanced technologies; and targeted the architects of this war, that is Russian President Vladimir Putin and his accomplices, as well as the Lukashenko regime in Belarus. 


In addition to announced plans, we will make further efforts to reduce our reliance on Russian energy, while ensuring that we do so in an orderly fashion and in ways that provide time for the world to secure alternative and sustainable supplies. In addition, private sector companies are leaving Russia with unprecedented speed and solidarity. We stand with our companies that are seeking an orderly withdrawal from the Russian market. 

We remain resolved to isolate Russia further from our economies and the international financial system. Consequently, we commit to taking further measures as soon as possible in the context of our ongoing response and consistent with our respective legal authorities and processes: 


First, we will endeavor, consistent with our national processes, to take action that will deny Russia Most-Favoured-Nation status relating to key products. This will revoke important benefits of Russia’s membership of the World Trade Organization and ensure that the products of Russian companies no longer receive Most-Favoured-Nation treatment in our economies. We welcome the ongoing preparation of a statement by a broad coalition of WTO members, including the G7, announcing their revocation of Russia’s Most-Favoured-Nation status. 


Second, we are working collectively to prevent Russia from obtaining financing from the leading multilateral financial institutions, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Russia cannot grossly violate international law and expect to benefit from being part of the international economic order. We welcome the IMF and World Bank Group’s rapid and ongoing efforts to get financial assistance to Ukraine. We also welcome the steps the OECD has taken to restrict Russia’s participation in relevant bodies. 


Third, we commit to continuing our campaign of pressure against Russian elites, proxies and oligarchs close to President Putin and other architects of the war as well as their families and their enablers. We commend the work done by many of our governments to identify and freeze mobile and immobile assets belonging to sanctioned individuals and entities, and resolve to continue this campaign of pressure as a matter of priority. To that end, we have operationalised the task force announced on February 26, which will target the assets of Russian elites close to President Putin and the architects of his war. Our sanctions packages are carefully targeted so as not to impede the delivery of humanitarian assistance. 


Fourth, we commit to maintaining the effectiveness of our restrictive measures, to cracking down on evasion and to closing loop-holes. Specifically, in addition to other measures planned to prevent evasion, we will ensure that the Russian state and elites, proxies and oligarchs cannot leverage digital assets as a means of evading or offsetting the impact of international sanctions, which will further limit their access to the global financial system. It is commonly understood that our current sanctions already cover crypto-assets. We commit to taking measures to better detect and interdict any illicit activity, and we will impose costs on illicit Russian actors using digital assets to enhance and transfer their wealth, consistent with our national processes. 


Fifth, we are resolved to fighting off the Russian regime’s attempts to spread disinformation. We affirm and support the right of the Russian people to free and unbiased information. 


Sixth, we stand ready to impose further restrictions on exports and imports of key goods and technologies on the Russian Federation, which aim at denying Russia revenues and at ensuring that our citizens are not underwriting President Putin’s war, consistent with national processes. We note that international companies are already withdrawing from the Russian market. We will make sure that the elites, proxies and oligarchs that support President Putin’s war are deprived of their access to luxury goods and assets. The elites who sustain Putin’s war machine should no longer be able to reap the gains of this system, squandering the resources of the Russian people. 


Seventh, Russian entities directly or indirectly supporting the war should not have access to new debt and equity investments and other forms of international capital. Our citizens are united in the view that their savings and investments should not fund the companies that underpin Russia’s economy and war machine. We will continue working together to develop and implement measures that will further limit Russia’s ability to raise money internationally


We stand united and in solidarity with our partners, including developing and emerging economies, which unjustly bear the cost and impact of this war, for which we hold President Putin, his regime and supporters, and the Lukashenko regime, fully responsible. Together, we will work to preserve stability of energy markets as well as food security globally as Russia’s invasion threatens Ukraine’s capacity to grow crops this year. 


We continue to stand with the Ukrainian people and the Government of Ukraine. We will continue to evaluate the impacts of our measures, including on third countries, and are prepared to take further measures to hold President Putin and his regime accountable for his attack on Ukraine


segunda-feira, 28 de fevereiro de 2022

A postura da diplomacia brasileira continua VERGONHOSA! Não existe condenação da agressão: as partes são julgadas equivalentes

 Não vejo, EM NENHUM MOMENTO, nenhuma denúncia da invasão russa, da violação do Direito Internacional, dos crimes de guerra e contra os direitos humanos já perpetrados pelas tropas russas, inclusive NENHUMA REFERÊNCIA à ameaça de uso de ARMAS NUCLEARES.

A diplomacia brasileira continua INTIMIDADA pelos celerados, aloprados e desequilibrados dirigentes que infelicitam o Brasil e isolam o país no cenário internacional. 

VERGONHA! VERGONHA! VERGONHA!

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Diplomata e professor

Brasília, 27/02/2022


NOTA À IMPRENSA Nº 33

Declaração do Representante Permanente do Brasil junto às Nações Unidas, Embaixador Ronaldo Costa Filho, em reunião do Conselho de Segurança da ONU sobre a situação na Ucrânia - 27 de fevereiro de 2022 (texto em inglês)

Statement by the Permanent Representative Ambassador Ronaldo Costa Filho in the Security Council Debate on the Question of Ukraine

27 February 2022

Mr. President, 

Last Friday, my delegation laid out before this Council a comprehensive view of its concerns regarding the security developments in and around Ukraine.  Nothing in the intervening period has led us to having had those concerns allayed.

On the contrary, in fact. As we speak, the number of casualties, the human suffering and the risks to international peace and security keep increasing by the hour. UNHCR already places the number of refugees at 422,000.

We have voted in favour of the draft resolution before the Council despite misgivings about its timing and its contribution to achieving peace. These misgivings stem ultimately from our unyielding commitment of respect for, and interest in upholding, the Charter and the role of the Security Council itself.

The urgency of the situation has convinced us of the need to add the voice of the General Assembly to that of the Security Council in seeking solutions to the crisis in and around Ukraine.  

This in no way detracts from our firm belief that the Council, with its primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security, has not yet exhausted the instruments and mechanisms at its disposal to contribute to a negotiated and diplomatic solution towards peace.

Therefore, we reiterate our call for an immediate cessation of hostilities, for full respect to humanitarian law, and for a renewed attempt within the Council for the promotion of, and support to, a process of dialogue between the parties involved, a role that the Council is inherently better equipped to provide in order to bring a peaceful solution to the Ukrainian conflict. The Security Council and General Assembly must work together.

As we renew our calls for an immediate ceasefire, we also appeal to Ukraine and Russia to facilitate the withdrawal of all persons who want to leave the Ukrainian territory. Brazil already wishes to express its gratitude to Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Moldova, Romania and others who are facilitating the exit of people fleeing the conflict, in particular Brazilians and Latin Americans. 

Let us be exceedingly cautious in moving forward in the General Assembly. The supply of weapons, the recourse to cyberattacks, and the application of selective sanctions, which could affect sectors such as fertilizers and wheat, with a strong risk of famine, entail the risk of exacerbating and spreading the conflict and not of solving it. We cannot be oblivious to the fact that these measures enhance the risks of wider and direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. It is our duty, both in the Council and in the General Assembly, to stop and reverse this escalation. We need to engage in serious negotiations, in good faith, that could allow the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity, security guarantees for Ukraine and Russia, and strategic stability in Europe. 

I thank you.

========

PRA: I do NOT thank you, Mister Costa, but I regret that you have to comply to INSANE instructions from Brasília.

sábado, 26 de fevereiro de 2022

A Rússia já está derrotada, triplamente- Paulo Roberto de Almeida (Mais Brasil News)

 A partir de minha entrevista online, o jornal Mais Brasil News fez uma matéria escrita:

‘Ele pode até conquistar toda a Ucrânia, mas a Rússia já esta derrotada’, diz diplomata

O diplomata Paulo Roberto Almeida, afirmou que o presidente da Rússia, Vladimir Putin, está violando a carta da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU)

Luana Moura

Mais Brasil News, 25/02/2022 20:50

Em entrevista ao Mais Brasil News, o diplomata Paulo Roberto Almeida afirmou

nesta sexta-feira, 25, que o presidente da Rússia, Vladimir Putin, está violando 

a carta da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU)

“É uma violação do direito internacional, então ele terá que ser punido e, 

talvez, ele seja punido pelo seu próprio povo e será obrigado a retirar-se da 

Ucrânia, não tanto pela força armada, 

mas pelo isolamento econômico e pela derrota moral”, destaca 


Um dos principais objetivos da guerra deflagrada pela Rússia contra a Ucrânia é matar o presidente ucraniano Volodymyr Zelensky pessoalmente, de acordo com um assessor do gabinete da presidência do país.

“Ele pode até conquistar toda a Ucrânia, mas a Rússia já está derrotada politicamente, diplomaticamente, moralmente derrotada”, diz o diplomata.  

Sobre uma possível intervenção da China em apoiar os russos, Almeida diz que essa possibilidade é mínima, pois os dois países sempre estiveram em diferentes posições e até em conflitos territoriais. 

“Eu não acredito que a China chegará ao extremo de apoiar a Rússia em todas as circunstâncias”, pois o chanceler do país já declarou que eles são favoráveis a soluções pacificas das controvérsias. 

Confira aqui a entrevista na íntegra:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGS4mdg4-bw

segunda-feira, 31 de janeiro de 2022

Russia-Ucrânia blues - Wilson Center

domingo, 2 de maio de 2021

O Brasil e a frustrada invasão de Cuba em 1961 pelos exilados cubanos orquestrados pela CIA - André Duchiade, James Hershberg e Joseph Zelikow (National Security Archive)

Documentos indicam que João Goulart atuou como mediador secreto entre Kennedy e Fidel Castro

A pedido de Washington, governo brasileiro tomou medidas para evitar execuções de prisioneiros da fracassada invasão da Baía dos Porcos, revelam telegramas descobertos por historiador americano; independência da política externa da época qualificou o Brasil como intermediário

André Duchiade

O Globo, 29/04/2021 - 18:17 / Atualizado em 29/04/2021 - 22:16

https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/documentos-indicam-que-joao-goulart-atuou-como-mediador-secreto-entre-kennedy-fidel-castro-1-24994882

Em abril de 1962, um ano depois da fracassada tentativa de invasão da Baía dos Porcos por exilados cubanos patrocinados pelos EUA, o então presidente brasileiro João Goulart atendeu a um pedido do seu homólogo americano John F. Kennedy e intercedeu junto ao líder cubano Fidel Castro para evitar as execuções dos 1.200 prisioneiros envolvidos na operação.

A descoberta foi revelada nesta quinta-feira pelo National Security Archive, instituição de pesquisa ligada à Universidade de George Washington, e tem como fontes documentos inéditos do Itamaraty, do Departamento de Estado americano e (minoritariamente) de Cuba. A pesquisa foi conduzida pelo historiador James Hershberg, da mesma universidade.

Os telegramas secretos, analisados em um artigo publicado no mês em que a tentativa de invasão completa 60 anos, permitem vislumbrar como o Brasil atuou sigilosamente como intermediário entre Washington e Havana em um momento de rompimento diplomático total entre as duas capitais. Também permitem entender como a posição de independência internacional do Brasil permitiu que o país exercesse influência frente aos dois governos, desempenhando importante papel para evitar um conflito.

O estudo se centra em um curto período, entre o final de março e o começo de abril de 1962, quando Havana se preparava para levar a um tribunal especial os 1.179 prisioneiros envolvidos na operação, que enfrentavam acusações de traição e poderiam ser condenados à morte. Kennedy, que herdara os planos da invasão de seu antecessor Dwight Eisenhower, tinha grande interesse na libertação dos detidos, e tentou interceder buscando canais com a então Tchecoslováquia, o Vaticano, o Chile e o México.

Segundo Hershberg, o “Brasil desempenhava um papel especial — não apenas por seu tamanho e importância na América do Sul, mas porque seu líder, o presidente João Goulart, do Partido Trabalhista Brasileiro (PTB), de centro-esquerda, estava prestes a visitar os Estados Unidos para uma cúpula com presidente Kennedy no início de abril, e buscava obter ajuda econômica dos EUA — e, portanto, tinha um incentivo para fazer um favor a Washington”.

A pesquisa ressalta outro fator que punha o Brasil em posição privilegiada para mediar essa negociação: “Goulart e seu ministro das Relações Exteriores, San Tiago Dantas, tinham preservado laços amigáveis com Havana ao resistir fortemente à pressão dos EUA por severas sanções anti-Cuba”, sobretudo na conferência de chanceleres da OEA no Uruguai em janeiro daquele ano. Na conferência, Cuba foi suspensa da organização, e o Brasil se absteve na votação.

O contato inicial com o governo brasileiro foi feito a partir de Roberto Campos, então embaixador em Washington, que foi contatado, no dia 23 de março, por José Miró, ex-primeiro-ministro cubano, líder da oposição no exílio a Fidel e colaborador da CIA. Naquela mesma noite, o Itamaraty ordenou ao embaixador em Cuba, Luiz Bastian Pinto, que comunicasse imediatamente ao governo de Havana que Brasília desejava o adiamento do julgamento por 30 dias — prazo necessário para Goulart empreender a sua viagem a Washington.

No dia 27 de março, o chanceler cubano Raúl Roa respondeu ao enviado brasileiro que adiar o julgamento não era uma opção, pois anularia uma decisão governamental “de grande gravidade”. Roa incluiu no entanto uma ressalva: “Cuba responderia afirmativamente se Goulart fizesse um apelo público de clemência”, no qual se referisse explicitamente à "magnanimidade ou generosidade" dos "vencedores". Havana, acrescentou, "não responderia a nenhum tipo de apelo feito por qualquer chefe de Estado que não o presidente Goulart".

O julgamento, conduzido em uma fortaleza colonial do século XVIII, começou dois dias depois, uma quinta-feira. Na sexta, o encarregado de negócios americano no Brasil, Niles Bond, que atuava como embaixador em exercício, tomou conhecimento, por meio de informantes no Itamaraty, das exigências cubanas. Em um telegrama a Washington, ele disse que Havana via a iniciativa brasileira com “simpatia”, mas impusera “uma pura chantagem” como condição para ceder. A resposta cubana, disse Bond, fora recebida “com profunda irritação” pelo governo brasileiro, “incluindo o próprio presidente”.

O avanço do julgamento, no entanto, reforçou a preocupação americana, que intensificou os contatos com Campos em Washington. Um comunicado do conselheiro de Kennedy Richard Goodwin transmitido à embaixada brasileira afirmava que “além dos motivos humanitários para evitar a execução de prisioneiros, o presidente Kennedy se preocupa [com] o efeito exacerbante que a execução pode ter na opinião pública americana, [que vinha] ficando mais tranquila e menos emocional em relação a Cuba". A mensagem foi recebida pelo governo brasileiro como um recado direto de Kennedy.

Segundo o estudo do National Security Archive, “apesar de aparentemente se ressentir das condições cubanas anteriores, Goulart, prestes a visitar Washington, dificilmente podia resistir ao apelo interpresidencial direto de Kennedy, transmitido por seu associado íntimo, do topo dos EUA”. A embaixada respondeu que o chanceler San Tiago Dantas estava redigindo um texto a ser assinado por Goulart com um pedido público por clemência.

A carta de Jango, destinada ao presidente cubano Osvaldo Dorticós e ao então premier Fidel, foi enviada no dia 2 de abril, mesmo dia em que ele embarcou rumo a Washington, sendo distribuída também a jornais brasileiros. Sem que os EUA soubessem, a missiva fora cuidadosamente redigida para atender às condições impostas por Havana, incluindo referências à "magnanimidade" e à “vitória” cubana:

“Movido por sentimentos de solidariedade humana que unem todos os povos americanos, tomo a liberdade de dirigir a vossas excelências um apelo de todo o povo brasileiro para que a magnanimidade seja fator decisivo na condenação de pessoas presas na praia de Girón por ocasião de invasão a Cuba”, dizia o texto. “Estou certo de que vossas excelências cuidarão desse assunto conduzido com a clemência que sempre caracteriza a atitude do vencedor para com o irmão derrotado”.

A resposta pública de Havana veio dois dias depois. Dizia que o país esperara por uma indenização americana em função da invasão, que não viera. Acrescentava que, embora o processo fosse avançar, o “apelo à magnanimidade da Cuba revolucionária, em nome do povo brasileiro, e no momento em que se prepara a nação soberana de Cuba para julgar os fatos, pesará muito na mente do povo e do tribunal que tem a decisão em suas mãos”.

A sentença veio no domingo seguinte, 8 de abril, enquanto Goulart viajava pelos Estados Unidos após se encontrar com Kennedy. Os invasores foram considerados culpados, mas escaparam da pena de morte: a sentença era de 30 anos de prisão, ou uma indenização de US$ 62 milhões. A ditadura cubana evitara matar os prisioneiros, deixando uma porta aberta para obter recursos importantes ao novo regime, que de fato viriam mais tarde: em dezembro, os prisioneiros seriam libertados em troca de US$ 53 milhões em comida, remédios e outros itens humanitários.

O estudo cita ainda uma outra informação não confirmada: no dia 12 de abril, os colunistas de Washington Robert Allen e Paul Scott publicaram no Miami News que Goulart havia enviado uma mensagem secreta a Fidel Castro, na qual teria citado “um apelo de emergência de Washington”. O texto acrescentava que Goulart teria dito a Fidel que, se as vidas dos prisioneiros fossem poupadas, “Kennedy continuaria a seguir uma política de 'não intervenção' estrita nos assuntos internos de Cuba". A previsão se provou falsa; ainda em março, Kennedy aprovou a operação Mongoose, com o objetivo de derrubar o regime cubano.

No final do artigo, o historiador Hershberg afirma que o episódio “ofereceu ao governo Kennedy um lembrete oportuno da utilidade potencial da Embaixada do Brasil em Havana — ao contrário dos desejos de alguns funcionários linha-dura dos EUA, que preferiam que o Brasil simplesmente cortasse relações diplomáticas com Cuba”.

Em outubro de 1962, Kennedy ainda buscaria intermediação diplomática do Brasil durante a crise dos mísseis nucleares. As relações entre as partes se deterioriam com o tempo, e, em 1963, Kennedy consideraria apoiar um golpe contra Jango, para evitar "o surgimento de uma nova Cuba no hemisfério". A utilidade do Brasil para negociar com Havana chegaria ao fim com o golpe de 1964, apoiado por Washington.

Segundo Hershberg, antes disso, contudo, o Brasil “pode ter desempenhado um papel importante na limitação do confronto entre EUA e Cuba em um momento perigoso, influenciando Fidel a salvaguardar e, eventualmente, libertar os prisioneiros da Baía dos Porcos (...) evitando assim um ato que poderia muito bem ter desencadeado uma crise e potencialmente uma intervenção militar dos EUA 

==============

Zelikow response to National Security Archive: Saving the Bay of Pigs Prisoners: Did JFK Send a Secret Warning to Fidel Castro – through Brazil?

by Philip Zelikow
H-Diplo, May 1, 2021

Jim Hershberg's useful documentary compilation adds important context to a critical, yet largely overlooked, episode in President John F. Kennedy's thinking about Fidel Castro and Cuba in March-April 1962. At this time Kennedy made it clear to the leader of the Cuban exiles that the U.S. would not invade Cuba to help them overthrow Castro's government. This news deflated hopes among the exiles, causing considerable anger. Hershberg's work adds a vital clue about why Kennedy took this stance at that time.

In the National Security Archive's new briefing book (#758, 29 April 2021), Hershberg posts documents explaining that, in late March 1962, Kennedy and his key Latin American aide, Dick Goodwin, were very concerned that Castro's government was about to execute a group of Cuban rebels that had been captured in the failed CIA-sponsored invasion of Cuba at the Bay of Pigs in April 1961. These executions would inflame American opinion against Castro. 

On March 16, Kennedy reviewed the guidelines for the CIA program against Castro, Operation Mongoose, He allowed contingency plans to proceed but "expressed skepticism that in so far as can now be foreseen circumstances will arise that would justify and make desirable the use of American forces for overt military action." [Ed. note, "Guidelines for Operation Mongoose," _FRUS_ 1961-1963, vol. 10, doc. 314]. 

On March 28 or 29, the head of the Cuban exiles and their Cuban Revolutionary Council, Jose Miro Cardona, met at the White House with Kennedy's national security adviser, McGeorge Bundy. Hershberg notes this meeting and their discussion about Castro's possible execution of the captives. Cardona and his colleagues pleaded for enough help to invade Cuba and overthrow Castro. Bundy pushed back. He told them that any such action had to be decisive and complete. That meant open involvement of U.S. armed forces. "This," he said, "would mean open war against Cuba which in the U.S. judgment was not advisable in the present international situation." Cardona did not like this answer. He regarded Bundy's stance as "polite but cold." [Memcon, 29 March 1962, _FRUS_ 1961-1963, vol. 10, doc. 317 (drafted on March 13, according to the _FRUS_ editors, but this seems unlikely; Cardona, the next year, dated the meeting as occurring on March 28); Cardona resignation letter, 9 April 1963, Wilson Center Digital Archive]. 

On March 29, there was a meeting of the overseers of the CIA Mongoose program. This was a disagreeable meeting in which it was agreed that the U.S. might arrange some deal to get release of the Cuban captives, offering U.S. supplies of food. This decision overrode the objections of the CIA director, John McCone, and the CIA's Mongoose manager, William Harvey. McCone was frustrated at this time, pushing for American military intervention in Cuba. [Memo for the Record, _FRUS_, vol. 10, doc. 318, also doc 319].

Enter Hershberg's findings. Hershberg explains that Dick Goodwin (whom the Cuban exiles disliked) was managing the issue of how to save the captives. The same day, March 29, Bundy and Goodwin agreed that Goodwin would approach Brazil's leader, who was about to visit the White House, and seek his help. Goodwin worked this through the Brazilian ambassador on March 30. In that meeting, Goodwin explained how the executions of the captives would inflame American opinion at a time when Kennedy felt American opinion was "getting more tranquil and less emotional in relation to Cuba." [Hershberg text accompanying note 27, referring to doc. 9 in his EBB].

On April 2, Brazil's president, Joao Goulart, publicly appealed to Castro to spare the captives. Hershberg notes that a pair of journalists for the _Miami News_ later disclosed that this public appeal was accompanied by a secret message from Brazil to Cuba, coming out of the Goodwin channel. In this secret message, the Brazilians reportedly relayed Goodwin's message that execution might cause a harsh U.S. reaction, while clemency might tilt Kennedy against intervention. [Hershberg text accompanying notes 34-37].

On April 8, Cuba announced the sentence -- the captives would be spared. What later ensued was a set of negotiations involving the U.S. lawyer James Donovan, working with Goodwin, that did eventually produce a deal that exchanged American goods for the release of the Cuban captives.

Hershberg speculates about the significance of this secret U.S. offer relayed through Brazil. But he does not comment on the immediate sequel, which certainly adds credence to his speculation.

Two other journalists at the _Miami News_ had arranged for the frustrated head of the Cuban exiles, Cardona, to meet with Robert Kennedy. He promised help on the captives. He arranged for Cardona and his colleagues to meet directly with President Kennedy, on April 10.

On April 10, Cardona met with JFK for an hour. Robert Kennedy and Goodwin were there. A year later, Cardona claimed that JFK had urged the Cubans to keep training their forces, that "your destiny is to suffer" but "do not waver." [Cardona resignation letter, April 1963]. Goodwin's record at the time is different. At this meeting, Kennedy specifically rebuffed Cardona's plea that the U.S. commit itself to intervene in support of another rebel invasion. [Goodwin to JFK, 14 April 1962, and Passavoy to Record, "Topics Discussed during Meeting of Dr. Miro Cardona with the President," 25 April 1962, both in NSF, box 45, Cuba: Subjects, Miro Cardona, Material sent to Palm Beach, JFK Library]. The _FRUS_ editors unfortunately did not include these documents, which record the only meeting in 1962 between JFK and the leader of the Cuban exiles. I published this information in 1999 [_Essence of Decision_, Pearson, revised edition, with Graham Allison, 84 and 132, n. 26) and 2000 ("American Policy in Cuba, 1961-1963," _Diplomatic History_, 24:2, 321)].

There is no question that Kennedy's deflating message to Cardona reinforced what the State Department's Cuban desk officer called the "deep sense of frustration and impatience" in the Cuban exile community "over what it considers 'inactivity' regarding the overthrow of the Castro regime." Cardona came under internal attack because he had "failed to convince the United States to embark on a military operations program." Cardona considered resigning. [Hurwitch to Martin, 19 April 1962, _FRUS_, doc. 329].

In sum, if Hershberg's findings are added to the wider context -- Kennedy's March-April 1962 rejection of both Cuban exile and CIA pleas for a more aggressive U.S. policy against Castro -- his hypothesis seems right. Kennedy, through Goodwin and with the help of the Brazilians, does appear to have communicated, accurately, that Castro's decision on whether to spare the captives was coming at a pivotal moment in U.S. policy, and could reinforce a growing trend against direct U.S. intervention.

It is also important to notice that Castro's intelligence service had penetrated the Cuban exile community and therefore was presumably well aware of their unease and frustration about U.S. plans. According to senior former Cuban intelligence officials, at this time, in April-May 1962, Cuban intelligence concluded that it did not fear a U.S. invasion of Cuba. And the Soviet leadership had already approved, on April 12, a strong defensive arms package for Cuba, despite Castro's actions against the pro-Soviet leader of Cuba's Communist Party. 

Thus, when Khrushchev decided more than a month later, at the end of May, to deploy a force of ballistic missiles to Cuba, Castro assumed that the Soviet leader was doing this for other, global, reasons. I have argued elsewhere that these had much to do with the final phase of the Berlin crisis. This background helps explain why the KGB resident in Havana thought Castro would say no to the Soviet missile request. But, in fact, Castro was willing to take the missiles out of a sense of socialist solidarity. [On the Cuban intelligence views, see Domingo Amuchastegui, "Cuban Intelligence and the October Crisis," in James Blight and David Welch, eds., _Intelligence and the Cuban Missile Crisis_ (Routledge, 1988); see generally the revised _Essence of Decision_, 84-88, including the cited recollections of Fidel Castro himself and other Cuban leaders compiled between 1989 and 1992]. 

Hershberg's findings about the U.S.-Brazilian diplomacy and Castro's well-judged decision to spare the Bay of Pigs captives thus add an important new layer of understanding to this fascinating story.

Philip Zelikow
University of Virginia