domingo, 16 de junho de 2013

Snowden: o espiao que saiu da neve - uma investigacao da Associated Press (Times Union)

AP IMPACT: Snowden'slife surrounded by spycraft
ADAM GELLER, Associated Press, By ADAM GELLER and BRIAN WITTE, Associated Press
Times Union, Saturday, June 15, 2013, 2:09 pm

FORT MEADE, Md. (AP) — In the suburbs edged by woods midway between Baltimore and the nation's capital, residents long joked that the government spy shop next door was so ultra-secretive its initials stood for "No Such Agency." But when Edward Snowden grew up here, the National Security Agency's looming presence was both a very visible and accepted part of everyday life.
When Snowden —the 29-year-old intelligence contractor whose leak of top-secret documents has exposed sweeping government surveillance programs — went to Arundel High School, the agency regularly sent employees from its nearby black-glass headquarters to tutor struggling math students.
When Snowden went on to Anne Arundel Community College in the spring of 1999 after leaving high school halfway through his sophomore year, he arrived on a campus developing a specialty in cybersecurity training for future employees of the NSA and Department of Defense, though, according to the records, he never took such a class.
And when Snowden joined friends in his late teens to edit a website built around a shared interest in Japanese animation, they chartered the venture from an apartment in military housing at Fort George G. Meade, the 8-square-mile installation that houses the NSA center dubbed the Puzzle Palace and calls itself the "nation's pre-eminent center for information, intelligence and cyber."
In this setting, it's easy to see how the young Snowden was exposed to the notion of spycraft as a career, first with the Central Intelligence Agency and later as a systems analyst for two companies under contract to the NSA. But details of his early life — in the agency's shadows and with both parents working for other branches of the federal government — only magnify the contradictions inherent in Snowden's decision to become a leaker.
What, after all, did he think he was getting into when he signed up to work for the nation's espionage agencies? And what specifically triggered a "crisis of conscience" — as described by a friend who knew him when he worked for the CIA — so profound that it convinced him to betray the secrets he was sworn to keep?
The latter is a question that even Snowden, in interviews since his disclosures, has answered piecemeal, describing his decisions as the same ones any thoughtful person would make if put in his position.
"I'm no different from anybody else," he said in a video interview with The Guardian, seated with his back to a mirror in what appears to be a Hong Kong hotel room, the tropical sunlight filtering through a curtained window. "I don't have special skills. I'm just another guy who sits there day to day in the office, watches what's happening and goes: This is not our place to decide. The public needs to decide whether these programs and policies are right or wrong."
Posts to online blogs and forums, public records and interviews with Snowden's neighbors, teachers and acquaintances reveal someone who prized the American ideal of personal freedom but became disenchanted with the way government secretly operates in the name of national security.
Those who knew him describe him as introspective, but seem puzzled by where the mindset led him.
"He's very nice, shy, reserved," Jonathan Mills, the father of Snowden's longtime girlfriend, told The Associated Press outside his home in Laurel, Md. "He's always had strong convictions of right and wrong, and it kind of makes sense, but still, a shock."
Snowden, who was born in 1983, spent his early years in Elizabeth City, N.C., before his family moved to the Maryland suburbs when he was 9. His father, Lonnie, was a warrant officer for the U.S. Coast Guard, since retired. His mother, Elizabeth, who goes by Wendy, went to work for the U.S. District Court in Maryland in 1998 and is now its chief deputy of administration and information technology. An older sister, Jessica, is a lawyer working as a research associate for the Federal Judicial Center in Washington, according to LinkedIn.
In the suburbs south of Baltimore, the younger Snowden attended public elementary and middle schools in Crofton. In the fall of 1997, he enrolled at Arundel High School, a four-year school with about 2,000 students.
At all three schools, many parents worked for the military, nearby federal agencies and the contractors serving them. But those employed at the NSA were tight-lipped, said Jerud Ryker, a math teacher who retired from Arundel in 1998. He recounted conversations over the years with people who mentioned they worked for the spy agency.
"Oh, what do you do?" Ryker says he asked. The answer was always the same: "Nothing that I can talk about."
At Arundel, Snowden stayed only through the first half of his sophomore year, a school district spokesman said. Former teachers and classmates interviewed in the days since he surfaced as the leaker said they had no recollection of him.
It's not clear why he left. Four years later, in a post Snowden wrote for the anime website jokingly explaining his irritation with cartoon convention volunteers, he wrote: "I really am a nice guy, though. You see, I act arrogant and cruel because I was not hugged enough as a child, and because the public education system turned its wretched, spiked back on me."
Years later, he "made a big deal of it (failing to finish high school), just in our everyday conversations,"Mavanee Anderson, who met Snowden when they worked together in Switzerland in 2007, said in an interview with MSNBC. "I think he was slightly embarrassed by it."
With high school behind him, Snowden registered at the community college, taking for-credit classes from 1999 to 2001 and again from 2003 to 2005, as well as some non-credit classes in between, spokeswoman Laurie Farrell said. Snowden told friends and reporters that he later earned a high school GED certificate.
In 2001, Snowden's parents divorced and his father moved to Pennsylvania. The next year his mother bought a gray clapboard-sided condominium in nearby Ellicott City, Md., and her son, then 19, moved in by himself. His mother dropped by with groceries from time to time and a girlfriend visited on weekends, said Joyce Kinsey, a neighbor who lives across the street from the unit, where Snowden's mother now resides.
Otherwise, Snowden appeared most often by himself, said Kinsey, who recalled seeing him working on a computer through the open blinds "at all times of the day and night," a period that coincided with his work on the anime venture, Ryuhana Press.
During this same time, it appears Snowden became a prolific participant in a technology blog, Arstechnica, under the pseudonym TheTrueHOOHA, posting more than 750 comments between late 2001 and mid-2012. In 2002, he posted a query asking for advice about getting an information technology job in Japan and mentioned he was studying Japanese. Later he argued that by pirating poorly made software he was justly punishing companies for their ineptitude.
But he also touched on questions of security and privacy.
In one October 2003 thread, he asked so many questions about how to hide the identity of his computer server that another discussion participant asked why he was being so paranoid.
Snowden's answer: "Patriot Act. If they misinterpret that actions I perform, I could be a cyb4r terrorist and that would be very ... bad."
In another post that fall, he mulled the politics of personal identity.
"This is entirely dependent on the individual -- as is the definition of freedom. Freedom isn't a word the can be (pardon) freely defined," he wrote. "The saying goes, 'Live free or die,' I believe. That seems to intimate a conditional dependence on freedom as a requirement for happiness."
In that discussion, Snowden mentioned that he had identified himself as a Buddhist in paperwork he filled out for the Army. And in May 2004, he enlisted, with aspirations of becoming a Green Beret.
"I wanted to fight in the Iraq war because I felt like I had an obligation as a human being to help free people from oppression," he told The Guardian. "Most of the people training us seemed pumped up about killing Arabs, not helping anyone."
Snowden reported to Fort Benning, Ga., in June 2004, where "he attempted to qualify to become a special forces soldier but did not complete the requisite training and was administratively discharged," said an Army spokesman, Col. David H. Patterson Jr.
Snowden left the Army at the end of that September. He mentioned on the tech forum that he was discharged after breaking both legs in accident, a detail the Army could not confirm.
He returned home, enrolling again in classes at the community college and working through most of 2005 as a security guard at the University of Maryland's Center for Advanced Study of Language, a mile off campus. The center, affiliated with the Department of Defense, says on its LinkedIn page that it was founded after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks to help the intelligence community improve language preparedness. But a university spokesman said the center's work is not classified.
When he went public with his decision to leak the NSA's documents, Snowden told interviewers that he studied at Maryland, Johns Hopkins University and the University of Liverpool.
A Maryland spokesman, Crystal Brown, said Snowden did not take classes at the school's flagship campus. However, Robert Ludwig, a spokesman for the University of Maryland University College, which offers classes online and at military bases, said Snowden registered for one term in its Asia Division in the summer of 2009, but did not earn a certificate or degree.
Johns Hopkins said it had no record of Snowden taking classes. The only possibility, the school said, is that he might have enrolled at a private, for-profit entity that offered career training under the name Computer Career Institute at Johns Hopkins University. The university said it ended its relationship with the training school in 2009 and it had since shut down, making it impossible to check any records.
Liverpool said in a statement that Snowden had registered for an online masters' program in computer security in 2011, but never completed it.
Snowden has said that he was hired by the CIA to work on information technology security and in 2007 was assigned by the agency to work in Geneva, Switzerland. Anderson, Snowden's friend at the time, made the same assertion.
The Swiss foreign ministry confirmed that Snowden lived and worked in Geneva, where it says he was accredited to the United Nations as a U.S. Mission employee from March 2007 to February 2009.
Snowden appears to have been well-known among U.S. staff in Geneva, though none of those contacted by the AP would comment about him. But Anderson, who met Snowden when she spent part of 2007 as a legal intern at the mission, said many others can't speak out in his defense, for fear of losing their jobs. In both the cable TV interview and an op-ed piece for Tennessee's Chattanooga Times Free Press, she recalled him fondly as very intelligent — and increasingly troubled about his work.
"During that time period he did quit the CIA, so I knew that he was having a crisis of conscience of sorts," Anderson said in the TV interview. "But I am still surprised, even shocked. He never gave me any indication that he would reveal anything that was top secret." She could not be reached for additional comment.
Snowden told The Guardian he was discouraged by an incident in which he claimed CIA agents tried to recruit a Swiss banker to provide secret information. They purposely got him drunk, Snowden said, and when he was arrested for driving while intoxicated, an agent offered to help as a way to forge a bond.
"Much of what I saw in Geneva really disillusioned me about how my government functions and what its impact is in the world," he said.
Snowden has said he left the embassy to take a job with private contractors for the NSA — first with Dell, the computer company.
That work appears to have taken him to multiple locations. Public records show Snowden had a mailing address with the U.S. military in Asia, and he has said that he worked at an NSA installation on a U.S. military base in Japan. His girlfriend, Lindsay Mills, wrote on her blog that the two had fallen in love with Japanese street festivals.
By then, Snowden and Mills — who was raised in Laurel, Md., on the opposite side of Fort Meade from where Snowden grew up — had long been a couple, albeit a study in contrasts. The 28-year-old Mills, who earned a bachelor's degree in fine arts from the Maryland Institute College of Art, styles herself a performer, frequently posting carefully composed photos to a blog and Facebook page, many of them showing her scantily clad, pole dancing and doing acrobatics.
A friend of Mills from Laurel High School, Erin Shaw, said that back then Mills was a creative spirit, notable in the photography work they did together on the school newspaper, The Shield. But she also was relatively quiet, making it a surprise that she ended up comfortable as a performer, rather than in an arts-related job behind the camera or backstage, Shaw said.
"Lindsay is a wonderful, sweet, caring person who is artistic and beautiful," Shaw said, speaking in the midst of a move from Texas to California. "The idea of caring about state secrets does not occur to me that is anything she would be part of or care about."
After Japan, Snowden's work took him back to Maryland. In March 2012, he listed an address in Columbia when he made a donation to Rep. Ron Paul's campaign for president. But when he made another contribution to the campaign two months later, Snowden listed an address in Hawaii. Mills, his girlfriend, joined him in Hawaii in June of last year, and they settled into a rented blue house on a corner lot fringed with palmettos.
Neighbors said the couple were pleasant, quiet and kept to themselves.
Angel Cunanan, a 79-year-old doctor who lives next door, said he would wave to them and say hello in the morning.
"Sometimes I said, 'Why don't you come in for a cup of coffee?' But they never did," Cunanan said. Cunanan says Snowden said he worked for the military.
Another neighbor, Carolyn Tijing, said the couple always left the blinds closed and stacked the garage from floor to ceiling with moving boxes, so high they blocked any view inside.
Mills' online posts hint at a happy home life in Hawaii together: pictures of sunsets, time on the beach and his-and-hers cups of Japanese shaved ice.
But by January of this year, Snowden secretly was edging forward with a plan to leak NSA documents, contacting documentary filmmaker Laura Poitras with an anonymous offer to share information on U.S. intelligence. The following month he contacted Glenn Greenwald, an American living in Brazil who writes on surveillance issues for The Guardian, as well as Barton Gellman, a reporter for The Washington Post.
In March, Snowden switched employers, moving to contractor Booz Allen Hamilton in Hawaii. The company confirmed he was employee for less than three months, at an annual salary of $122,000.
Snowden and Mills prepared for a May 1 move a couple of blocks away, because the owner of the rental wanted to put it up for sale.
"E and I received the keys to our next abode yesterday," Mills wrote on her blog on April 15. "We took time to envision what each room could look like once we crammed our things in them. And even discussed hanging silks in the two-story main room."
Mills headed back to the East Coast for a visit and when she returned to Hawaii, she wrote, Snowden unexpectedly told her he, too, needed to get away; he told his employer that he needed some time off for medical treatment. On May 20, Snowden flew to Hong Kong.
Three weeks later, as intelligence officials raced to control the damage from the NSA leaks, Snowden revealed himself as the person responsible.
"When you're in positions of privileged access," Snowden told The Guardian, "you see things that may be disturbing...until eventually you realize that these things need to be determined by the public — not by somebody who is simply hired by the government."
(2)
In the suburbs south of Baltimore, the younger Snowden attended public elementary and middle schools in Crofton. In the fall of 1997, he enrolled at Arundel High School, a four-year school with about 2,000 students.
At all three schools, many parents worked for the military, nearby federal agencies and the contractors serving them. But those employed at the NSA were tight-lipped, said Jerud Ryker, a math teacher who retired from Arundel in 1998. He recounted conversations over the years with people who mentioned they worked for the spy agency.
"Oh, what do you do?" Ryker says he asked. The answer was always the same: "Nothing that I can talk about."
At Arundel, Snowden stayed only through the first half of his sophomore year, a school district spokesman said. Former teachers and classmates interviewed in the days since he surfaced as the leaker said they had no recollection of him.
It's not clear why he left. Four years later, in a post Snowden wrote for the anime website jokingly explaining his irritation with cartoon convention volunteers, he wrote: "I really am a nice guy, though. You see, I act arrogant and cruel because I was not hugged enough as a child, and because the public education system turned its wretched, spiked back on me."
Years later, he "made a big deal of it (failing to finish high school), just in our everyday conversations,"Mavanee Anderson, who met Snowden when they worked together in Switzerland in 2007, said in an interview with MSNBC. "I think he was slightly embarrassed by it."
With high school behind him, Snowden registered at the community college, taking for-credit classes from 1999 to 2001 and again from 2003 to 2005, as well as some non-credit classes in between, spokeswoman Laurie Farrell said. Snowden told friends and reporters that he later earned a high school GED certificate.
In 2001, Snowden's parents divorced and his father moved to Pennsylvania. The next year his mother bought a gray clapboard-sided condominium in nearby Ellicott City, Md., and her son, then 19, moved in by himself. His mother dropped by with groceries from time to time and a girlfriend visited on weekends, said Joyce Kinsey, a neighbor who lives across the street from the unit, where Snowden's mother now resides.
Otherwise, Snowden appeared most often by himself, said Kinsey, who recalled seeing him working on a computer through the open blinds "at all times of the day and night," a period that coincided with his work on the anime venture, Ryuhana Press.
During this same time, it appears Snowden became a prolific participant in a technology blog, Arstechnica, under the pseudonym TheTrueHOOHA, posting more than 750 comments between late 2001 and mid-2012. In 2002, he posted a query asking for advice about getting an information technology job in Japan and mentioned he was studying Japanese. Later he argued that by pirating poorly made software he was justly punishing companies for their ineptitude.
But he also touched on questions of security and privacy.
In one October 2003 thread, he asked so many questions about how to hide the identity of his computer server that another discussion participant asked why he was being so paranoid.
Snowden's answer: "Patriot Act. If they misinterpret that actions I perform, I could be a cyb4r terrorist and that would be very ... bad."
In another post that fall, he mulled the politics of personal identity.
"This is entirely dependent on the individual -- as is the definition of freedom. Freedom isn't a word the can be (pardon) freely defined," he wrote. "The saying goes, 'Live free or die,' I believe. That seems to intimate a conditional dependence on freedom as a requirement for happiness."
In that discussion, Snowden mentioned that he had identified himself as a Buddhist in paperwork he filled out for the Army. And in May 2004, he enlisted, with aspirations of becoming a Green Beret.

(3)
"I wanted to fight in the Iraq war because I felt like I had an obligation as a human being to help free people from oppression," he told The Guardian. "Most of the people training us seemed pumped up about killing Arabs, not helping anyone."
Snowden reported to Fort Benning, Ga., in June 2004, where "he attempted to qualify to become a special forces soldier but did not complete the requisite training and was administratively discharged," said an Army spokesman, Col. David H. Patterson Jr.
Snowden left the Army at the end of that September. He mentioned on the tech forum that he was discharged after breaking both legs in accident, a detail the Army could not confirm.
He returned home, enrolling again in classes at the community college and working through most of 2005 as a security guard at the University of Maryland's Center for Advanced Study of Language, a mile off campus. The center, affiliated with the Department of Defense, says on its LinkedIn page that it was founded after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks to help the intelligence community improve language preparedness. But a university spokesman said the center's work is not classified.
When he went public with his decision to leak the NSA's documents, Snowden told interviewers that he studied at Maryland, Johns Hopkins University and the University of Liverpool.
A Maryland spokesman, Crystal Brown, said Snowden did not take classes at the school's flagship campus. However, Robert Ludwig, a spokesman for the University of Maryland University College, which offers classes online and at military bases, said Snowden registered for one term in its Asia Division in the summer of 2009, but did not earn a certificate or degree.
Johns Hopkins said it had no record of Snowden taking classes. The only possibility, the school said, is that he might have enrolled at a private, for-profit entity that offered career training under the name Computer Career Institute at Johns Hopkins University. The university said it ended its relationship with the training school in 2009 and it had since shut down, making it impossible to check any records.
Liverpool said in a statement that Snowden had registered for an online masters' program in computer security in 2011, but never completed it.
Snowden has said that he was hired by the CIA to work on information technology security and in 2007 was assigned by the agency to work in Geneva, Switzerland. Anderson, Snowden's friend at the time, made the same assertion.
The Swiss foreign ministry confirmed that Snowden lived and worked in Geneva, where it says he was accredited to the United Nations as a U.S. Mission employee from March 2007 to February 2009.
Snowden appears to have been well-known among U.S. staff in Geneva, though none of those contacted by the AP would comment about him. But Anderson, who met Snowden when she spent part of 2007 as a legal intern at the mission, said many others can't speak out in his defense, for fear of losing their jobs. In both the cable TV interview and an op-ed piece for Tennessee's Chattanooga Times Free Press, she recalled him fondly as very intelligent — and increasingly troubled about his work.
"During that time period he did quit the CIA, so I knew that he was having a crisis of conscience of sorts," Anderson said in the TV interview. "But I am still surprised, even shocked. He never gave me any indication that he would reveal anything that was top secret." She could not be reached for additional comment.
Snowden told The Guardian he was discouraged by an incident in which he claimed CIA agents tried to recruit a Swiss banker to provide secret information. They purposely got him drunk, Snowden said, and when he was arrested for driving while intoxicated, an agent offered to help as a way to forge a bond.
"Much of what I saw in Geneva really disillusioned me about how my government functions and what its impact is in the world," he said.

(4)
Snowden has said he left the embassy to take a job with private contractors for the NSA — first with Dell, the computer company.
That work appears to have taken him to multiple locations. Public records show Snowden had a mailing address with the U.S. military in Asia, and he has said that he worked at an NSA installation on a U.S. military base in Japan. His girlfriend, Lindsay Mills, wrote on her blog that the two had fallen in love with Japanese street festivals.
By then, Snowden and Mills — who was raised in Laurel, Md., on the opposite side of Fort Meade from where Snowden grew up — had long been a couple, albeit a study in contrasts. The 28-year-old Mills, who earned a bachelor's degree in fine arts from the Maryland Institute College of Art, styles herself a performer, frequently posting carefully composed photos to a blog and Facebook page, many of them showing her scantily clad, pole dancing and doing acrobatics.
A friend of Mills from Laurel High School, Erin Shaw, said that back then Mills was a creative spirit, notable in the photography work they did together on the school newspaper, The Shield. But she also was relatively quiet, making it a surprise that she ended up comfortable as a performer, rather than in an arts-related job behind the camera or backstage, Shaw said.
"Lindsay is a wonderful, sweet, caring person who is artistic and beautiful," Shaw said, speaking in the midst of a move from Texas to California. "The idea of caring about state secrets does not occur to me that is anything she would be part of or care about."
After Japan, Snowden's work took him back to Maryland. In March 2012, he listed an address in Columbia when he made a donation to Rep. Ron Paul's campaign for president. But when he made another contribution to the campaign two months later, Snowden listed an address in Hawaii. Mills, his girlfriend, joined him in Hawaii in June of last year, and they settled into a rented blue house on a corner lot fringed with palmettos.
Neighbors said the couple were pleasant, quiet and kept to themselves.
Angel Cunanan, a 79-year-old doctor who lives next door, said he would wave to them and say hello in the morning.
"Sometimes I said, 'Why don't you come in for a cup of coffee?' But they never did," Cunanan said. Cunanan says Snowden said he worked for the military.
Another neighbor, Carolyn Tijing, said the couple always left the blinds closed and stacked the garage from floor to ceiling with moving boxes, so high they blocked any view inside.
Mills' online posts hint at a happy home life in Hawaii together: pictures of sunsets, time on the beach and his-and-hers cups of Japanese shaved ice.
But by January of this year, Snowden secretly was edging forward with a plan to leak NSA documents, contacting documentary filmmaker Laura Poitras with an anonymous offer to share information on U.S. intelligence. The following month he contacted Glenn Greenwald, an American living in Brazil who writes on surveillance issues for The Guardian, as well as Barton Gellman, a reporter for The Washington Post.
In March, Snowden switched employers, moving to contractor Booz Allen Hamilton in Hawaii. The company confirmed he was employee for less than three months, at an annual salary of $122,000.
Snowden and Mills prepared for a May 1 move a couple of blocks away, because the owner of the rental wanted to put it up for sale.
"E and I received the keys to our next abode yesterday," Mills wrote on her blog on April 15. "We took time to envision what each room could look like once we crammed our things in them. And even discussed hanging silks in the two-story main room."
Mills headed back to the East Coast for a visit and when she returned to Hawaii, she wrote, Snowden unexpectedly told her he, too, needed to get away; he told his employer that he needed some time off for medical treatment. On May 20, Snowden flew to Hong Kong.
Three weeks later, as intelligence officials raced to control the damage from the NSA leaks, Snowden revealed himself as the person responsible.
"When you're in positions of privileged access," Snowden told The Guardian, "you see things that may be disturbing...until eventually you realize that these things need to be determined by the public — not by somebody who is simply hired by the government."
 ___
Geller reported from New York. AP writers Oskar Garcia and Anita Hofschneider in Hawaii; John Heilprin in Geneva; Kimberly Dozier, Jack Gillum and Jessica Gresko in Washington, D.C.; Emery Dalesio in Raleigh, N.C.; Brock Vergakis in Elizabeth City, N.C.; Sylvia Hui in London; and AP researchers Judith Ausuebel, Rhonda Shafner and Monika Mathur in New York contributed to this story. Geller can be reached at features @ ap.org. Follow him on Twitter athttp://twitter.com/AdGeller
The AP National Investigative Team can be reached at investigate@ap.org

sábado, 15 de junho de 2013

Conselho de Seguranca: mudancas e paralisias - Antonio Patriota

Antonio de Aguiar Patriota *
Project Syndicate, 3 June 2013

BRASILIA – The 1945 United Nations Charter represented a historic breakthrough in the pursuit of peace on a multilateral basis. At the end of a global war that claimed more than 50 million lives, the United States and the Soviet Union emerged as the world’s two major powers. The UN Charter, initially negotiated by the US, the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom during World War II, established a Security Council containing five permanent members, including France and the Republic of China.
At its inception, the UN brought together 51 countries; it now has 193 member states. But, although the Security Council was enlarged in 1965 by increasing the number of non-permanent seats from six to ten, its permanent members have not changed since 1945.
The world has gone through extraordinary transformations since then. In addition to interstate conflict and the proliferation of weapons – particularly weapons of mass destruction – new challenges have emerged, such as terrorism and the involvement of non-state actors in internal conflicts. Meanwhile, the global distribution of economic and political power has undergone a radical reconfiguration, setting the stage for the emergence of a multipolar international order.
In this environment, the Security Council’s frozen composition is imposing significant limits on the international community’s capacity to address global challenges. Conflicts drag on without proper action from the body created to resolve them. Thousands of civilians die, are displaced, or are subjected to appalling human-rights abuses, while the Security Council proves unable or unwilling to act. Reform of the Council is thus urgent and indispensable.
A majority of UN member states are in favor of creating a new Council with an expanded roster of both permanent and non-permanent members. This majority reflects a growing perception that the world would be more stable and more secure with a strengthened and updated multilateral system. That means adding new voices to reflect the world in which we now live. Only then will the Security Council have the legitimacy to act on today’s manifold conflicts.
A reformed Security Council would reflect the emergence of new powers and their readiness to contribute to the maintenance of international peace and security. In the financial and economic arena, this new multipolarity has already led to quota reforms at the International Monetary Fund and resulted in the consolidation of the G-20 as the premier venue for multilateral economic-policy coordination.
The contrast with matters of peace and security is stark. Entire regions of the world, such as Africa and Latin America, are excluded from the nucleus of decision-making. A governing body that is not representative fuels uncertainty and frustration among those subject to its decisions, undermining the legitimacy – and thus the effectiveness – of its actions.
The greatest risk that we run is erosion of the Security Council’s credibility, and, with it, a diminishing capacity to confront grave threats to peace. We all stand to lose if new international crises end up being addressed by coalitions of countries at the margins of the Security Council and in a manner that flouts international law.
The lessons of the recent past are clear. In any conflict, neighboring countries’ participation and commitment are indispensable to the achievement of peace. Only an expanded Security Council can enable effective conflict resolution worldwide.
The international community cannot afford to postpone reform. It is our duty to preserve the multilateral system of peace and security – an achievement of the international community that, despite its shortcomings, has helped save the planet from another war on a global scale.
Only an increase in the number of permanent and non-permanent seats can remedy the representation deficit within the Security Council and adapt it to the realities of the twenty-first century. If new members and regions are not offered a seat at the table, the Council will face increasing irrelevance – and the world, more than ever in need of effective conflict resolution, will be far worse off.

* Antonio de Aguiar Patriota is Foreign Minister of Brazil.
==========

Apenas um comentario sobre esta frase do artigo do ministro:

"But, although the Security Council was enlarged in 1965 by increasing the number of non-permanent seats from six to ten, its permanent members have not changed since 1945."

Mudou sim. E bastante. Primeiro aceitando a França, ainda em 1945, um país diminuído pela derrota contra a Alemanha, em 1940, e apenas restaurado graças à energia de um homem, De Gaulle, e sua decisão de mandar tropas francesas para ocupar a Alemanha em 1945. Depois recusando o Brasil, que era apoiado pelos EUA, em 1945, mas que não passou no teste das grandes potências em termos de capacidadde militar, tendo em conta a oposição da Grã-Bretanha e da URSS.
Mudou depois em 1971-72: quando expulsou a República da China, então reduzida a Formosa, e aceitou a República Popular da China, como única representante do povo chinês, e portanto herdeira dos aliados anti-potências agressoras de 1940-45,
O Conselho de Segurança tem mudado, talvez não no sentido desejado pelo Brasil, mas ele tem mudado...
------------------------------
Paulo Roberto de Almeida 

A frase do dia, segundo Ricardo Noblat - contraditorio, pode-se agregar...

FRASE DO DIA
Quero dizer que a inflação jamais vai voltar e está sob controle. Por isso, peço a vocês que não deem ouvidos a esses que jogam sempre no quanto pior melhor. Todo mundo tem que ter a humildade de aguentar as críticas, mas terrorismo, não.
Dilma Rousseff
Blog de Ricardo Noblat, 15/06/2013

Isso foi num dia. No dia seguinte, a mema frasista lançou o programa demagógico e eleitoreiro de financiamento de compra de eletrodomésticos, à altura de 18 bilhões de reais, financiados por aumento da dívida pública e emissão monetária.

Pergunto: o que é isto senão um estímulo inflacionário? 

A presidente ou seus assessores econômicos pensam que somos idiotas?
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

O Velho do Restelo e o bode expiatorio - Chico Caruso

Sem palavras, ou apenas uma: certas pessoas precisam de uma razão externa às suas próprias ações...


1940: Hesitation year (as America stays apart...) - book review, Susan Dunn

The Year of Hesitation

With European armies on the march, America seemed a world apart.

The Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2013

1940: FDR, Willkie, Lindbergh, Hitler—the Election Amid the Storm

By Susan Dunn
Yale, 418 pages, $30


It was the Year Before. The year before Ted Williams and Joe DiMaggio would light up the baseball world with the numbers .406 and 56. The year before the Jeep was invented and the Manhattan Project was started, the year before Mount Rushmore was completed, the year before Joan Baez was born, the year before 2,402 victims of the attack on Pearl Harbor would die.
But 1940 was more than the Year Before. It was a time and era all its own: the Luftwaffe bombing assault on London, the assassination of Trotsky, the discovery of Stone Age carvings in a cave in France, the appearance of nylons on the market. The Bears beat the Redskins, 73-0, in the NFL championship game. Byron Nelson won the PGA Championship.
And it was the year Franklin Delano Roosevelt won an unprecedented third term in the White House. It is this presidential drama that is the centerpiece of Susan Dunn's volume with the pithy, strangely evocative title of "1940.'' The book is a meticulous reconstruction of several battles: the one between FDR and Wendell Willkie, naturally, but also the struggle between those who believed in isolationism and those who believed in engagement. And the clash between those who believed the best answer to Hitler and Mussolini was appeasement and those who believed instead in forceful response and rearmament.
Few years—1941, of course, and surely 1776 and 1861, and maybe 1968 and 2001—offer so rich an American canvas, and Ms. Dunn, a prolific historian at Williams College, uses it to paint a brilliant portrait of an America in transition, not only between war and peace but also between a country content to stick to its knitting and one that would soon sew together alliances and assume obligations across the globe.
Ms. Dunn's story begins with Japan at war in China, Germany on the move through Europe, and Americans registering for the draft and taking jobs in the growing defense industry. From the start it is clear that this was a time of transformation—and crisis.
The year was dominated by two questions whose answers would change the country. Would Roosevelt run for the third term that none of his predecessors dared undertake? And would the United States, possessed of the world's 18th biggest army, only slightly bigger than Bulgaria's, be drawn into the war that was darkening the globe?
On the war, FDR took what you might call a lean-in position, observing in his State of the Union address that there was a "vast difference'' between "keeping out of war and pretending that this war is none of our business.'' On the question of the third term, Hitler all but resolved Roosevelt's conundrum, and the nation's.
One of the long shadows of the year (and, it turns out, of the year ahead, too) was cast by Charles Lindbergh: hero of Le Bourget, seatmate of Hitler at the 1936 Olympics, "intensely pleased''—his words—by the Nazi experience. FDR thought him a Nazi, but perhaps he was simply shallow and narrow. Lindbergh, whose relationship with FDR also is a principal theme of another book this season, Lynne Olson's "Those Angry Days," stands out for his ignorance but not for his isolationism, a creed embraced by, among many others, the old Herbert Hoover and the young Gerald Ford, the reigning president of the University of Chicago (Robert Maynard Hutchins), and the future president of Yale (Kingman Brewster), all suffering from what the playwright Robert Sherwood described as an "isolationist fetish.'' Their brand of isolationism was a mixture of pacifism and defeatism in the face of fascism and totalitarianism, with a few of them throwing in a sprinkle of anti-Semitism as seasoning.
Then there was Willkie himself, the chairman of the Commonwealth and Southern Utilities Corp. He won the Republican nomination by beating out Thomas Dewey (fabled gangster-buster), Robert Taft (first in his class at both Yale and Harvard Law and a noted isolationist), Arthur Vandenberg ("abstruse,'' she tells us, "with his overly subtle distinction between isolationism and insulationism''), and Herbert Hoover ("out of touch'').
A onetime Democrat and longtime internationalist, Willkie battled the Ku Klux Klan, made a fortune on Wall Street, and made some women, and a handful of powerful publishers, swoon. "I am utterly devoid, I believe, of political ambition,'' he said, which of course positioned him perfectly to attain his ambition, the Republican presidential nomination.
Willkie's appeal was on the economic side, offering a humane alternative to the New Deal he reviled, one concentrating on competition and free markets. "The true liberal,'' he said, "is as much opposed to excessive concentration of power in the hands of government as . . . in the hands of business.'' This was a challenge both to the New Dealers and to the Republican Old Guard. At the Republican National Convention he was, as Ms. Dunn puts it, "a colorful maverick in a sea of gray.''
Willkie never quite fit in the party that nominated him, referring in his acceptance speech to "you Republicans'' and prompting Lindbergh to describe him as a "problem child.'' If politics were a matter of logic, Willkie's nomination would have removed the rationale for FDR's third term, but the long history of American politics is a treatise against logic, which is why books like Ms. Dunn's—primarily a colorful account of that most colorful American art form, the presidential campaign, with its banners, bands, bunting and bunkum—are so captivating.
For his part, Roosevelt—no revisionism here, just the customary heroic but enigmatic FDR—encouraged multiple worthies to become presidential candidates. As a result, no single alternative emerged, and the party that had stoutly resisted a third term for Grover Cleveland gladly offered one to Franklin Roosevelt. "It's been grand fun, hasn't it!'' the president said to Sherwood and adviser Sam Rosenman the Sunday night before the election, and it was.
But there would be little in the way of grand fun for Roosevelt or anyone else in the years to come—even in the year to come. FDR had won every large city except Cincinnati, but the office he continued to occupy soon took on the burden of preserving American democracy, American freedoms and American independence. The man whom Carl Sandburg on the night before the election had described as "a not perfect man and yet more precious than fine gold'' faced rearmament, Lend-Lease, continued struggles against isolationists and appeasers, and, after Pearl Harbor, a two-front war against formidable foes whose leaders possessed more personal power, and for a time more firepower, than he.
After the election Willkie became a sturdy supporter of engagement, an effective emissary for FDR and a powerful pugilist against Lindbergh, whose attacks only escalated. The victor, and the country he had sought to lead through the woes of war, thus benefited from the broad-mindedness and personal generosity of the vanquished. "For the good of the country and the survival of democracy around the world,'' Ms. Dunn writes, "the former rivals sought to work together and probably came to respect each other.'' Few years turn out to be as perilous as 1940, or as portentous.
—Mr. Shribman is executive editor of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and the Pittsburgh Press.
A version of this article appeared June 15, 2013, on page C5 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: The Year of Hesitation.

1913: Globalization year (Argentina was very rich) - book review, Charles Emmerson, 1913

Uma informação retirada de minhas pesquisas: exatamente cem anos atrás, em 1913, a Argentina era um país muito rico. Medindo pela escala dos Estados Unidos, já então o país de mais alta renda per capita do mundo, os argentinos exibiam nada menos do que 73% da renda dos americanos, à frente da França e de vários outros países europeus. O Brasil, coitadinho, era muito pobre, apenas 10 ou 11 % da renda americana, ou seja, muitas vezes atrás dos americanos.
Atualmente, depois de mais ou menos 80 anos de decadência, a renda argentina não alcança 30% da renda dos americanos, e se situa apenas um quarto ou um terço acima da média brasileira . Isso é decadência para ninguém botar defeito.
Um livro para mostrar como o mundo era globalizado e pacífico, antes da guerra, e para mostrar como tudo pode degringolar num instante. O problema, em 1913, eram os belicosos europeus e os novos imperialistas agressivos japoneses. Cem anos depois, temos americanos e chineses como protagonistas quase exclusivos do grande jogo geopolítico. Creio que a coisa não vai degringolar desta vez, pelo menos não em proporções catastróficas como em 1014.
Mas, isso não exclui outros processos de decadência: a Argentina de maneira continuada, e o Brasil de maneira acentuada. A degradação moral do Brasil e no Brasil é muito mais avançada, e mentalmente perturbadora, do que a decadência material. Esperamos que não dure 80 anos como no caso argentino.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida


Charles Emmerson:
1913: In Search of the World Before the Great War
(Public Affairs, 526 pages, $ 30)

The Year of Globalization

The year before World War I, the world enjoyed a peaceful productivity

 so dependent on international trade and cooperation that general war seemed impossible.

The Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2013

David McMacken

Charles Emmerson's book anticipating next year's centenary of the beginning of World War I is ambitious in scope. Each of "1913's" 20 chapters is dedicated to a different city and not just to future belligerent capitals like Berlin, Paris and London but also to Beijing, Buenos Aires, Detroit, Tehran, Jerusalem, Tokyo, Algiers and Mumbai. Mr. Emmerson's aim is "to paint a truly global picture of the world in 1913," and he asks that we resist seeing it "through the prism of what happened after it."
In this, "1913" contrasts with the best-known account of the period, Barbara Tuchman's "The Proud Tower: A Portrait of the World Before the War, 1890-1914" (1966), in which she argued that the drumbeat of war sounded increasingly loudly in the decade up to 1914. Written not long after the Cuban missile crisis, "The Proud Tower" more closely reflected the Cold War anxieties of her own time than the general optimism of the prewar years. Had a "hot line" existed between the European powers in 1914, as was installed between Moscow and Washington after Cuba, it is very likely that war could have been avoided during the five weeks of diplomatic crisis that followed the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the throne of the Austro-Hungarian empire, on June 28, 1914.

In reality, when war came, it came out of a sky that had seemed cloudless to most people in the world, who knew almost nothing of war of any kind and had been raised to doubt that it could ever trouble them again. This is the world Mr. Emmerson describes—"as it might have looked through contemporary eyes, in its full colour and complexity, with a sense of the future's openness." He does this by drawing upon an impressive range of contemporary source material, ranging from travel guides and memoirs to unpublished diaries, newspaper reports and diplomatic memos. They give a vivid portrait of the rapid changes occurring in daily life around the globe.

"Thank God for Now!" Mr. Emmerson quotes one enthusiastic Winnipegger in May 1913, "these present times are the greatest and the best the world has ever seen." This is not the war-haunted world that Tuchman portrayed, but it too bears the uncanny imprint of the time in which it is written. Like today, the world in 1913 enjoyed a peaceful productivity so dependent on international trade and cooperation that the impossibility of general war seemed the most conventional of wisdoms. Mr. Emmerson points out that the volume of world trade reached a share of global output in 1913 that it was not to surpass until the 1970s. He quotes an advertisement for the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp. in "The China Yearbook 1913"; it listed its branches around the world and promised a global banking service to facilitate the lives of its globe-trotting customers. "Plus ça change," Mr. Emmerson remarks.

Thanks to intercontinental telephone cables, transcontinental railway lines and faster oil-fired ships, the world had never seemed more connected and more frontier-less. Globalization, Mr. Emmerson writes of 1913, quoting the economist John Maynard Keynes, was considered "normal, certain, and permanent, except in the direction of further improvement." Travel, previously a pastime of the rich, had become a middle-class pleasure as well, thanks to the railway revolution and the hotel industry it fueled. Annual world trade fairs, such as the Exposition Universelle et Internationale held in Ghent in Belgium in 1913, and the proliferation of international trade associations and standards committees were a sign to many that the commercial interdependence of nations made war unprofitable as well as unthinkable. Indeed, the willingness of the great powers to act together had been shown as early as 1900 in the response to the Boxer Rebels surrounding the Western embassies in Beijing. An international relief expedition comprising soldiers from Britain, France, Russia, Italy, Germany, Austro-Hungary, Japan and the U.S. successfully lifted the siege.

Two peace conferences in 1899 and 1907 had sown the seeds for an international court to arbitrate between states, and in August 1913 it found a home in the newly built Peace Palace in the Hague, funded by the U.S. steel magnate and peace activist Andrew Carnegie. The detail that Mr. Emmerson fails to add is that its convening was to be voluntary. It was expected that states would choose the court over the battlefield. Yet when localized disputes arose, as they did in Morocco between France and Germany (in 1905 and 1911) or in the Balkans between Austria and Serbia (in 1912 and 1913), none of the great powers invoked the ideal of supranational peacemaking enshrined at the Hague. They instead settled for side treaties with other states that, while temporarily preserving peace, proved the catalyst for the greater conflagration in 1914.

Population growth, Mr. Emmerson explains, was the major impetus for world trade. In the 30 years to 1913, he notes, Britain's population increased to 45 million from 35 million and Germany's to 68 million from 50 million. France's population, on the other hand, only grew by two million to 41 million—a fact not lost on German military planners or, he says, on the French president, Raymond Poincaré, who successfully campaigned in 1913 to extend conscription from two to three years to maintain the nation's fighting parity with Germany.

The growing demand for foodstuffs and commodities in developed nations wrought many an economic miracle in less developed countries. Winnipeg in the Canadian prairies grew rich on exported grain, Melbourne in Australia boomed from sheep and gold. Argentina was importing wheat in 1870, but, by 1913, was one of the world's largest exporters of grain and frozen beef—shipments of which (largely to Europe) increased five times in the first decade of the century.

To get grain and beef to the coast from its large inland estates, Argentina needed railways, for which the City of London was happy to provide the financing. In 1913, nearly half of the world's foreign direct investment came from Britain, "as much," Mr. Emmerson notes, "as the United States at its peak in 1960." Indefatigable in his references, he even mentions that the Buenos Aires "Baedeker" recommended that tourists visit the La Negra slaughterhouse to marvel at the efficiency of its system of slaughter and refrigeration, which the guidebook considered every bit as impressive as Henry Ford's world-famous automobile plant in Detroit.

When, in 1913, Britain's Royal Navy stole a march on Germany by switching its fleet's fuel from coal to oil—so as to build bigger, faster ships that could re-fuel at sea rather than at coaling stations around the world—it led directly to the British government buying a share in the fledging oil concession in Persia to secure its long-term supply. That company eventually became BP. In 1912, Mr. Emmerson explains, China had overthrown its emperor, whose forebears had ruled for 4,000 years, and in the space of four months established a modern democracy. In 1913, the U.S. became the first of the major powers formally to recognize the Republic of China amid much hope of growing trade opportunities. Plus ça change?

In 1913, Ford's Model T became the world's first global consumer brand. It was being driven in Russia, China, Japan, Brazil, New Zealand and even Mongolia. Mr. Emmerson describes a cartoon showing a startled Martian looking through a telescope at Earth—to see it swarming with Model T's. Industrial and personal efficiency had become the "all-American cult," in Mr. Emmerson's words. The 1913 Sears catalog, he writes, was "eloquent testimony for the emergence of a society of mass consumption, with new and varied tastes." Its hair-care products included "Gervaise Graham's Hair Color to dye hair, Princess Hair Tonic to grow it and De-Miracle Non-Irritant Depilatory to remove it."

Huge income inequalities existed in society, of course, and Mr. Emmerson's chapter on New York describes how the city was already being criticized as the "New Babylon," a place where prodigious economic and demographic growth had given rise to an out-of-touch ruling class and a vast underclass of working poor. Urban sanitation systems had improved around the world, but cholera outbreaks were not uncommon in cities such as St. Petersburg, where Mr. Emmerson tells us the death rate was higher than in Constantinople and where in 1913 the czar's own daughter contracted the disease. New laws restricting Japanese immigrants from owning land in California or resident Asians from trading in South Africa were a foretaste of racial tensions that were to intensify after World War I.

After 1918, Mr. Emmerson explains in the book's epilogue, world-wide trade atrophied, not least because countries tried to re-adopt the gold standard:
Internationalism had been a fact of life before the Great War. Now it became a cause in itself. . . . Worse, as countries re-entered the Gold Standard at pre-war rates of exchange which no longer reflected their true economic and financial position—forcing themselves onto a financial straitjacket which no longer fitted—the Gold Standard came to be seen as a mechanism for generating economic insecurity rather than one for generating financial stability. In 1931, in the face of the Great Depression, Britain left. The principles of liberal free trade—and of the economic interdependence which this implied—were replaced with aspirations to economic self-sufficiency. . . . Somehow, somewhere, the world of 1913 had gone.
The reader seeking an explanation for the World War I will not find it in Mr. Emmerson's book, something he readily acknowledges. Barbara Tuchman's "The Proud Tower" is a much better guide to how geopolitical rivalries and an arms race based on advances in weaponry and the widespread introduction of mass conscription were almost bound to result in cataclysm, and Christopher Clark's recent "Sleepwalkers" is a superlative account of the path to European war in 1914. And yet World War I was not inevitable, and the train of events that led to its outbreak might have been broken at any point during the five weeks of crisis that preceded the first clash of arms. Charles Emmerson captures all the world's hope and excitement as it experienced an economic El Dorado. "1913" is history without hindsight at its best.

—Mr. Archer is a writer living in London.
A version of this article appeared June 15, 2013, on page C5 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: The Year of Globalization.

Iran: flamenguistas e fluminenses votaram certo, e unidos, desta vez...

Resta saber se os mullahs teocráticos e os pasdarans negocistas vão deixá-lo governar e fazer as reformas que se impõem, inclusive no plano externo (ou seja, das negociações em torno do programa nuclear), para melhorar a vida da população iraniana.
Podemos estar assistindo ao começo do começo do renascimento de um processo tendencialmente democratizante no Irã, ou seja, os progressos serão lentos, e durarão provavelmente mais de uma geração para que a vibrante sociedade civil iraniana retome o caminho das liberdades democráticas e o de uma sociedade marcada pela tolerância religiosa e cultural, não pelo obscurantismo dos fundamentalistas chiitas.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

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BREAKING NEWS


New York Times, Saturday, June 15, 2013 12:04 PM EDT


In a striking repudiation of the ultra-conservatives who wield power in Iran, Iranian voters overwhelmingly elected a mild-mannered cleric seeking greater personal freedoms for the public and a more conciliatory approach with the world.
Iran’s interior minister, Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, announced that Hassan Rowhani, 64, had more than 50 percent of the vote, enough to avoid a runoff in the race to succeed the outgoing president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose tenure was defined largely by provocation with the west and a seriously hobbled economy at home.
The hardline conservatives aligned with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei placed at the back of the pack of six candidates, indicating that Iranian’s were looking to their next president to change the tone, if not the direction of the nation, by choosing a cleric who served as the lead nuclear negotiator under reformist Mohammad Khatami.
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