Jornalistas estao desaparecendo; advogados serao os proximos: Robos vao ocupar seus lugares - Simon Kuper

Jornalistas velho estilo estão realmente desaparecendo, mas outros, tecnologicamente aptos, estão ocupando os lugares daqueles velhos escrevinhadores de redação, ou reporteres investigativos. Hoje tudo aparece primeiro na internet, for free (mas obviamente alguém precisou colocar isso lá).
Advogados estão sendo substituídos por sistemas online de aconselhamento jurídico, e é bom que isso ocorra, pois advogados, além de exibirem tarifas muito altas, equivalentes às limusines de luxo com champagne e massagem, são nefastos produtores de déficits públicos, ou pelo menos atuam como redistribuidores de renda da maneira mais perversa.
Enfim: qualquer que seja a sua profissão, prepare-se para ficar desempregado nos próximos dez anos.
Estou esperando algo que substitua políticos, mas parece que a raça é dura, como as baratas, que estão conosco desde muito antes de Adão e Eva...
Não, isso não vai provocar desemprego, como acreditam almas cândidas, pois alguém vai produzir os robôs, consertá-los, até conversar com eles...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

How to cope when robots take your job
‘When your industry goes, you lose both your income and your identity’
FT, OCTOBER 6, 2016
by: Simon Kuper

The robots are coming to demolish your career. “No office job is safe,” says Sebastian Thrun, an expert on artificial intelligence at Stanford University. Lots of lawyers, accountants, even surgeons will be automated away. Having spent my career watching the long, slow carnage of my own industry, I have some insight into how that will feel, and how to cope.

When I entered journalism in 1995, it was a pretty cushy business. People bought newspapers — not necessarily for the articles but often just to find out the weather forecast, the football results, the stock prices or the TV schedule. Consequently, even mediocrities and alcoholics could have long, well-paid journalistic careers. I remember crabby FT subeditors of the 1990s who owned not just houses in London but second homes in France. When I started out, deadlines were about 6pm, after which — since rolling-news websites hadn’t been invented yet — everyone went to the pub. Expenses were good too: I’m told that at the FT, into the early 1990s, you could fly business class as long as you said you were working on the plane. So people would buy a copy of The Economist at the airport.

Companies are turning to artificial intelligence to fill jobs while hackers hope it will disguise their tracks
Unfortunately, the year I became a journalist, Microsoft produced its first web browser, Internet Explorer. Suddenly you could go online and find out almost anything for free without buying a paper. The number of journalists has been shrinking since, and most new jobs are for 25-year-olds willing to work for peanuts. My people are going extinct like dodos or factory workers. For now I’m hanging on, still on the island, grazing on one of the last patches of grass, but the waters are rising around me. One day my children will say: “My dad was a content provider. He worked for an app called FT, I think.”

When your industry goes, you lose both your income and your identity. Woody Allen has a nice comedy sketch about his father being made “technologically unemployed” — “They fired him. They replaced him with a tiny gadget … that does everything my father does, only it does it much better. The depressing thing is, my mother ran out and bought one.”

Techno-optimists predict that disappearing old jobs will be replaced by new jobs. For journalists, that’s certainly been true: in the US at last count, PRs outnumbered us 4.6 to 1. They are also better paid. The problem is that most journalists want to be journalists. We like this badly paid, poorly regarded and mostly meaningless profession. Years ago, a colleague told me about someone from the paper who had become a PR, or, in the jargon of journalism, “gone over to the dark side”. My colleague sniffed, “I just couldn’t look at myself in the mirror in the morning.” Needless to say, that colleague is now a PR himself.

But he seems happy. Having watched many former journalists stumble into new lives, I’ve assembled some tips on how to cope with technological destruction:

● Don’t make your job your identity. I remember one senior colleague whose great boast was that the chancellor of the exchequer sometimes stopped him for a chat. When the man retired, he made the devastating discovery that the chancellor wasn’t interested in him any more.

● Accept that your career isn’t building up to anything. In fact, it probably isn’t even a career.

● While your industry is still paying you, don’t get attached to money or status symbols. Expect that your job will be decimated. Don’t buy a big house. Food and stuff have never been cheaper, so if you stick to those you should be OK. I’ve been inspired by William Boyd’s fantastic novel Any Human Heart, in which the main character, once a successful writer, discovers in his sixties that dogfood is cheap, nutritious and even quite tasty, especially with “a pinch of curry powder judiciously stirred in”.

● Enjoy the fleeting moments: that shared chuckle with the chancellor, the business-class flight, those two or three truly satisfying pieces of work. Just don’t expect them to last. If you ever had a well-paid job in which you could express your talents, however briefly, you are one up on almost everybody else who ever lived.

● Don’t try to hang on in a dying industry as a freelancer. A major international newspaper recently offered a respected writer I know £10 for an article.

● Think of ways to monetise your skills in face-to-face situations in which nobody wants a computer. To quote the newly redundant England football manager Sam Allardyce: “I’m a keynote speaker.”

● If you still want to express yourself, get a blog.

● Don’t blame yourself. You are just a statistic, crushed beneath the wheels of history.

● Don’t complain. It’s boring.

● Expect to work in unsatisfying jobs until you are about 75. Hardly anyone else in history had a pension, so why should you?

Alternatively, you could just blame it all on immigrants.

simon.kuper@ft.com; Twitter @KuperSimon

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Google Scholar: os trabalhos mais citados de Paulo Roberto de Almeida (estatísticas)

Levantamento feito no Google Scholar em 9 de outubro de 2016

Estatísticas de citação dos trabalhos de Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Google Scholar

Citation indices

All: 1341

Since 2011: 662

Os títulos mais citados:

Citados por (número); Ano 

Uma política externa engajada: a diplomacia do governo Lula

Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 47 (1), 162184

195 2004

Mercosul: fundamentos e perspectivas

Grande Oriente do Brasil

136 1998

o multilateralismo econômico

Porto Alegre: Livraria do Advogado 82

70 1999

Uma nova arquitetura diplomática? Interpretações divergentes sobre a política externa do governo Lula (2003-2006)

Revista brasileira de política internacional 49 (1), 95116

48 2006

O Brasil como ator regional e como emergente global: estratégias de política externa e impacto na nova ordem internacional

Cena Internacional 9 (1), 736

45 2007

A política internacional do Partido dos Trabalhadores: da fundação à diplomacia do governo Lula

Revista de Sociologia e Política 20, 87102

45 2003

Never before seen in Brazil: Luis Inácio Lula da Silva's grand diplomacy

Revista Brasileira de política internacional 53 (2), 160177

29 2010

O Brasil e o futuro do Mercosul: dilemas e opções

25 1998

As duas últimas décadas do século XX: fim do socialismo e retomada da globalização

Relações Internacionais: dois séculos de História: entre a ordem bipolar e o ...

21 2001

Os primeiros anos do século XXI

São Paulo: Paz e Terra

13 2002

Mercosul: textos básicos

Brasília: Fundação Alexandre de Gusmão

13 1992

A economia internacional no século XX: um ensaio de síntese

Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 44 (1), 112136

12 2001

Relações internacionais

O que ler na Ciência Social Brasileira (19701995): Ciência Política 3, 191255

12 1999

A diplomacia do liberalismo econômico

Sessenta anos de política externa brasileira (19301990). São Paulo: Cultura ...

12 1996

A Arte de NÃO fazer a Guerra: novos comentários à Estratégia Nacional de Defesa

Meridiano 47 11 (119), 1

11 2010

Sete teses impertinentes sobre o MERCOSUL

São Paulo: Edicões Aduaneiras

11 2007

O nascimento do pensamento econômico brasileiro

Correio Braziliense ou Armazém Literário. Edição Facsimilar. São Paulo ...

11 2001

Planejamento no Brasil: memória histórica

Parcerias estratégicas 9 (18), 157190

10 2012

Sobre políticas de governo e políticas de Estado: distinções necessárias

De agosto de

10 2009

A experiência brasileira em planejamento econômico: uma síntese histórica. 2004

10 2005

O Brasil e a construção da ordem econômica internacional contemporânea

Contexto Internacional 26 (1), 7

10 2004

Um exercício comparativo de política externa: FHC e Lula em pespectiva.

Meridiano 47 5 (4243), 15

10 2004

Os estudos sobre o Brasil nos Estados Unidos: a produção brasilianista no pósSegunda Guerra

Revista Estudos Históricos 1 (27), 3162

10 2001

A política da política externa: os partidos políticos nas relações internacionais do Brasil, 1930-1990

Sessenta Anos de Política Externa Brasileira (19301990)

4, 381447

10 2000

Cronologia da integração latinoamericana no contexto do sistema econômico internacional

Boletim de Integração LatinoAmericana

10 1995

Relações exteriores e constituição

Revista Brasileira Política Internacional, Brasília, DF 29 (115), 8390

10 1986

Integração regional: uma introdução

São Paulo: Saraiva

9 2013

Globalizando: ensaios sobre a globalização e a antiglobalização

Rio de Janeiro: Lumen Juris

9 2011

O Brasil e a nanotecnologia: rumo à quarta revolução industrial

9 2005

o Sistema de Bretton Woods: Instituições e Políticas em perspectiva histórica, 1944-2002

MAZZUOLI, Valério de Oliveira; SILVA, Roberto Luiz (Coords.). O Brasil e os ...

9 2003

O Brasil e as crises financeiras internacionais, 1995-2001

Meridiano 47 3 (22), 14

9 2002

Avanços da regionalização nas Américas: cronologia analítica

PR Almeida, Y Chaloult

Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 42 (2), 145160

9 1999

Uma visão sindical em face da ALCA e de outros esquemas sindicais

Chaloult e Almeida (orgs.), 232248

9 1999

A relação do Brasil com os EUA: de FHCClinton a LulaBush

Reformas no Brasil: balanço e agenda, 203

8 2004

A Política Externa do novo Governo do Presidente Luís Inácio Lula da Silva: retrospecto histórico e avaliação programática

Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 45 (2), 229239

8 2002

A inserção econômica internacional do Brasil em perspectiva histórica

8 2000

Negociações colectivas internacionais e Mercosul

Mercosul, Nafta e Alca: a dimensão social. São Paulo: Ltr, 191216

8 1999

A cláusula social no comércio internacional

Revista Brasileira de Comércio Exterior, 40

8 1994

Evolução histórica do regionalismo econômico e político na América do Sul: um balanço das experiências realizadas

Cena internacional 10 (2), 7297

7 2008

A globalização e seus benefícios: um contraponto ao pessimismo

7 2004

O Brasil e os blocos regionais: soberania e interdependência

São Paulo em Perspectiva 16 (1), 316

7 2002

Estrutura institucional das relações econômicas internacionais do Brasil: acordos e organizações multilaterais de 1815 a 1997

Contexto Internacional 19 (2), 307

7 1997

MERCOSUL e União Européia: vidas paralelas?

7 1994

Os Partidos Políticos nas Relações Internacionais do Brasil, 1930-1990

Contexto Internacional 14 (2), 161

7 1992

Propriedade intelectual: os novos desafios para a América Latina

Estudos avançados 5 (12), 187203

7 1991

Dilemas atuais e perspectivas futuras do regionalismo sulamericano: convergências e divergências

Temas & Matizes 14, 7395

6 2008

Uma perspectiva macroeconômica do crescimento Brasileiro: algumas comparações internacionais

E Cardoso, PR Almeida, R Barbosa

O Brasil e os Estados Unidos num mundo em mutação. Washington, DC

6 2003

Relações Internacionais e política externa do Brasil: uma perspectiva histórica

Meridiano 47 2 (10\ 12), 12

6 2001

O futuro do Mercosul: Os desafios da agenda interna e da liberalização hemisférica

O Mercosul no limiar do século XXI. São Paulo: Cortez, 1726

6 2000

Geoestratégia do Atlântico Sul: uma visão do sul

Política e Estratégia 5, 486495

6 1987

América do Sul: rumo à desintegração política e à fragmentação econômica?

Carta Internacional 1 (2), 610

5 2006

Florestan Fernandes e a idéia de revolução burguesa no pensamento marxista brasileiro

Revista Espaço Acadêmico, 0113

5 2005

A pesquisa histórica sobre o Brasil nos arquivos dos Estados Unidos: identificação preliminar e projeto de compilação

Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 44 (1), 151154

5 2001

A democratização da sociedade internacional e o Brasil: ensaio sobre uma

mutação histórica de longo prazo (18151997)

Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 40 (2), 76105

5 1997

Sovereignty and regional integration in Latin America: a political conundrum?

Contexto Internacional 35 (2), 471495

4 2013

Finanças internacionais do Brasil: uma perspectiva de meio século (1954-2004)

O Crescimento e As Relaçoes Internacionais no Brasil, Instituto Brasileiro ...

4 2005

O Mercosul e a Alca na perspectiva do Brasil: uma avaliação política sobre possíveis estratégias de atuação

Seminário O Brasil e a Alca. Brasília: IPRI

4 2002

Mercosul: legislação e textos básicos

Brasília: Senado Federal

4 1992

A grande fragmentação na América Latina: globalizados, reticentes e

bolivarianos

Carta Internacional 9 (1), 7993

3 2014

Brazilian trade policy in historical perspective: constant features, erratic behavior

Revista de Direito Internacional 10 (1)

3 2013

Uma história do Mercosul (1): do nascimento à crise

Revista espaço acadêmico 10 (119), 106114

3 2011

Falácias acadêmicas, 13: o mito do socialismo de mercado na China

Revista Espaço Acadêmico 9 (101), 4150

3 2009

Brazil’s Candidacy for Major Power Status

M Diaz, PR Almeida - Stanley Foundation

3 2008

Integração Regional e Inserção Internacional dos Países da América do Sul:

evolução histórica, dilemas atuais e perspectivas futuras

São Paulo: Instituto Fernando Henrique Cardoso

3 2008

8 de outubro de 1982: ditadura militar sobre a ditadura comunista na Polonia (eu estava lá)

Eu e Carmen Lícia, e nosso filho Pedro Paulo, ainda bebê nessa época, visitamos a Polônia pouco tempo depois desse aprofundamento da ditadura na Polônia, mas que já era um sinal claro da decadência inevitável do poder comunista, já que os militares foram chamados a tentar "colocar as coisas em ordem".
A comparação com o regime militar no Brasil, no auge da repressão, uma década antes, era inevitável, mas a despeito disso, um outro líder sindical no Brasil despontava como um líder de futuro no sistema político brasileiro.
Algum tempo depois, Lech Wallesa e Lula se encontraram em Roma, mais exatamente no Vaticano: o primeiro queria desmantelar o comunismo em seu país, o segundo queria ainda construir o socialismo no Brasil. Deu no que deu...
Ambos foram um fiasco, mas gozaram de certo prestígio durante algum tempo, tanto que foram eleitos presidentes, mas ambos fracassaram em transformar seus respectivos países.
Wallesa foi um incompetente, mas os liberais poloneses consertaram os estragos e fizeram a Polônia ingressar na UE. Lula e seus companheiros ineptos e corruptos simplesmente destruiram a economia brasileira, mas não temos liberais para consertar os estragos.
Ah, sim, o NYTimes esquece da morte de Guevara, num 8 de outubro.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

On This Day: October 8

Updated October 8, 2013, 2:28 pm

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On Oct. 8, 1982, all labor organizations in Poland, including Solidarity, were banned.

WARSAW OUTLAWS SOLIDARITY UNION

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Measure Scraps Trade Groups and Limits Right to Strike

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By JOHN KIFNER

Speical to The New York Times

OTHER HEADLINES Jobless Rate Is Up to 10.1% in Month, Worst in 42 Years: 11 Million Are Idle: Data for New York Show Big Decline -- Report Intensifies Debate Jobless Rate as Vote Issue: Democrats Buoyed; G.O.P. Is Concerned Federal Reserve Cuts Loan Charge to Banks to 91/2%: Move From 10% Signals More Declines in Interest Rates; Stocks Climb by 20.88 Key Teamster Leader Is Convicted of Labor Racketeering by L.I. Jury Outside Jobs of Many on Council Raise Conflict-of-Interest Question Algeria Halts Payment of Claims Against Iran

WARSAW, Oct. 8 -- The Polish Parliament overwhelmingly approved a law today that bans Solidarity, the independent trade union that once captured the imagination and allegiance of nearly 10 million Poles.

The law abolishes all existing labor organizations, including Solidarity, whose 15 months of existence brought exhilaration to many but drew the anger of the Soviet Union and other Eastern-bloc countries. It replaces them with a new set of unions whose ability to strike is sharply restricted.

Reaction of Work Force Uncertain

The scattered, fugitive Solidarity activists, more than 600 of whose leaders are in custody under martial law, have given no indication of their response to the Government edict outlawing their organization.

More uncertain - and perhaps more crucial to the authorities - is the reaction of Poland's increasingly sullen and frustrated work force, hard-pressed by shortages of food and virtually everything else, shortages that will only grow worse as the winter draws on.

The reaction could range from grudging, passive acceptance by even more listless performance in the factories and mines - ''Italian strikes,'' as they are called here - that would harm the crippled economy even more, to the kind of food riots that have periodically toppled governments over the last 26 years or even outbursts of terrorism and violence.

But the hopes of the authorities, as voiced in the official press and the speeches today, were that the new unions would lead to ''normalization,'' a relaxation of tensions and the eventual lifting of the martial law imposed last Dec. 13.

Security guards stood all around the gray Parliament building and uniformed police scrutinized credentials as the members gathered. A chill wind wrapped the red and white Polish national flag around its pole on the roof so it did not flutter.

The special riot policemen, known as ZOMO, who have enforced martial law, were brought back into the city and barracked at several central Warsaw hotels. But no demonstrations developed during the day, and the police were kept mostly out of sight.

When the vote came to dissolve the first experiment in labor democracy in the Eastern bloc at 9 tonight, after nearly seven hours of droning speeches, there were only 10 votes against the Government's bill and 9 abstentions.

In the Parliament, whose 460 members include 262 representatives of the ruling Polish United Workers' Party and 113 representatives of its affiliated United Peasants' Party, the debate was less than heated.

''A new and brave proposal,'' said Jozef Barecki of the Workers' Party, one of 16 members who spoke on the bill. He added that it was ''a major step'' toward creating ''a trade union movement worthy of the contemporary needs of the working class.''

Waldemar Michna of the United Peasants' Party said the new law ''would play a historic role'' and called it ''a momentous act on the road to normalization.''

Two speakers, members of small, independent parties, criticized the bill. One of them, Janusz Zablocki, a member of the Christian Social Association, said: ''Solidarity, whether we like it or not, has became in the society a symbol for renewal. Honest conditions should be created for the renewal of Solidarity, and no attempt should be made for its liquidation.''

The passage of the bill should come as a relief to other Eastern bloc nations, particularly East Germany and Czechoslovakia as well as the Soviet Union, who, fearful the contagion would spread, have been putting pressure on the Polish authorities to stamp out the independent union movement.

Introducing the bill to Parliament, Wlodzimierz Berutowicz, a law professor and Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, said that it ''fulfilled the agreement made with the workers'' at Gdansk in August 1980 - although it was that very agreement that gave birth to Solidarity.

Professor Berutowicz went on at great length to imply that the bill had met with the approval of the International Labor Organization. Tonight in Geneva, however, the I.L.O. director general, Francis Blanchard, said his organization had asked the Parliament to delay approval of the bill until the unions to be abolished, including Solidarity, were consulted.

Professor Berutowicz, other Government officials and the official press insisted that the new unions would be valid instruments because the legislation says they are to be ''independent'' of the management and the Government and because they have the right to strike.

However, the unions are to be linked with the party apparatus - the real political power here - and the ability to call a strike is so severely regulated that, as a practical matter, it would be almost impossible.

Any disputes must go through a complex arbitration process, and a seven-day advance notice must be given before a strike can be called. The Parliament has the ability to declare any strike illegal.

Many segments of the work force, including workers in the state radio and television, hospitals, banks, as well as those involved in delivering food or maintaining oil pipelines are forbidden to strike.

The link with the party, which officials today characterized as a ''partnership,'' is specified in the legislation that says the unions must ''recognize the leading role of the Polish United Workers' Party in the building of Socialism as defined by the Constitution.''

The Solidarity movement was to a large extent a revolt against the entrenched and frequently corrupt party hierarchy. But today the Warsaw daily Zycie Warszawy said that ''partnership between the party and trade unions is the best guarantee for respect of their independence by the authorities and the administration.''