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sábado, 2 de fevereiro de 2013

OMC: a via-crucis dos candidatos a DG; candidato brasileiro

Matérias de imprensa, 1/02/2013: 


OMC / CANDIDATURA DO EMBAIXADOR ROBERTO AZEVÊDO
O Estado de S. Paulo - ‘Na OMC, não serei mais o embaixador do Brasil’ / Entrevista / Roberto Azevedo
Em sabatina, candidato desvia de temas polêmicos envolvendo o País, entre eles câmbio e protecionismo
Jamil Chade, GENEBRA - Num esforço para ganhar votos e superar o mal-estar deixado pelo Brasil com alguns de seus sócios por conta das barreiras adotadas, o brasileiro Roberto Azevedo, candidato ao cargo de direção da Organização Mundial do Comércio (OMC), se distancia dos temas mais polêmicos da política comercial brasileira e garante que, se eleito, defenderá o interesse de todos os países.
Nesta quinta-feira, o embaixador Azevedo foi sabatinado na entidade, em uma sessão em que foi questionado sobre diversos assuntos. A escolha só ocorrerá em maio. Mas os nove candidatos ao posto sabem que um deslize em Genebra significaria a perda de pontos na corrida.
Azevedo foi questionado pela Coreia sobre protecionismo, mas iniciou sua intervenção esclarecendo que, depois de 17 anos na OMC representando o Brasil, finalmente falaria em nome próprio. "Esta é a primeira vez que, nesse prédio, vou compartilhar minha visão pessoal sobre essa organização, sobre o sistema comercial e sobre onde estamos hoje", disse aos demais embaixadores.
A estratégia não ocorre por acaso. Nos últimos meses, o aumento de barreiras comerciais no Brasil deixou dezenas de parceiros comerciais irritados, a ponto de a Casa Branca enviar uma carta ameaçando retaliar.
O Brasil também irritou muitos membros com a insistência de trazer para a agenda da OMC a questão do câmbio, com a criação de um mecanismo que autorizaria a elevação de tarifas. Para a maioria dos países, isso não passaria de uma forma de o Brasil justificar barreiras. Azevedo deixou claro, agora, que não partirá dele a introdução do assunto na agenda da OMC, se eventualmente for eleito.
Para o embaixador brasileiro, a OMC vive um momento crítico. "O sistema precisa ser renovado ou será incapaz de lidar com as demandas de um mundo em mudança", alertou. Em sua visão, se a Rodada Doha não for concluída, a OMC continuará "fora do radar" do mundo. "Nenhum marketing vai mudar essa realidade. Vamos precisar de um diretor que trabalhe, arregasse a manga e enfrente a situação. Será uma tarefa herculana. Mas precisa ser feita."
Ele também mandou seu recado aos países em desenvolvimento. "O comércio não é o objetivo da OMC. Mas um instrumento para desenvolvimento." Ao final da sabatina, Azevedo falou ao Estado. A seguir, os principais trechos da entrevista.
Depois de 12 anos de uma negociação sem resultado, a Rodada Doha ainda tem alguma relevância para a economia mundial?
Sim, não tenho nenhuma dúvida disso. Tinha avanços muito importantes previstos na Rodada, em vários setores. Eles são significativos até hoje. Se a Rodada for concluída de maneira positiva, teremos ganhos tanto em acesso a mercados como em disciplinas do comércio. E tudo isso tem um valor econômico muito importante.
Mas há a impressão de que o mundo já deu um passo adiante. O que pode ocorrer com a OMC se o projeto fracassar?
A OMC tem a obrigação de tentar concluir a negociação. O sistema está paralisado. É claro que a OMC é maior que a Rodada. Mas a realidade é que a Rodada emperra o sistema. Então, eu não vejo alternativa que não seja pela Rodada. Podemos tentar algum acordo aqui ou ali, mas a OMC precisa contornar o impasse que vive hoje.
A Coreia o questionou sobre o protecionismo. Qual o risco que isso representa para a economia internacional?
O protecionismo é uma ameaça sempre presente. Países vivem ciclos econômicos diferentes, com momentos mais liberalizantes e outros menos liberalizantes. O que eu disse é que a melhor proteção contra o protecionismo é o próprio sistema multilateral, que estabelece limites para o espaço de política pública que os países podem adotar. A melhor maneira de se evitar um recrudescimento das condições de abertura de mercado é fortalecer o sistema multilateral, negociando. E, para isso, precisamos sair do impasse.
O Brasil tem sido fortemente criticado nos últimos meses por alguns dos parceiros comerciais. A posição do Brasil, adotando medidas protecionistas, pode atrapalhar sua candidatura?
Em primeiro lugar, o governo jamais aceitou e nunca admitiu que estivesse adotando medidas protecionistas. Você pode ou não concordar com essa situação. O governo brasileiro entende que está tomando medidas que são necessárias diante das circunstâncias econômicas que se vive, inclusive à luz da taxa cambial anormal. Em segundo lugar, se eleito diretor da OMC, eu não sou mais embaixador do Brasil. Aí quem terá de defender a agenda brasileira e as medidas brasileiras será o novo embaixador do Brasil. Eu estarei usando um outro chapéu e estarei defendendo os interesses dos membros da OMC e os interesses da instituição.
Nos últimos dois anos, um dos temas que o sr. tratou foi a introdução do câmbio na agenda da OMC. Como diretor, o sr. acredita que o tema ainda terá espaço, depois de ter tantas críticas?
São os governos que precisam definir isso. O diretor não tem pode decidir o que os membros devem ou não falar. Não é uma decisão do diretor. Se alguém quiser introduzir um tema, seja energia, segurança alimentar, ele tem de convencer os demais que o tema deve ser discutido. O diretor-geral que quiser ditar a agenda da OMC perde o emprego rapidamente.
Entre os nove candidatos, três são latino-americanos. Por que Brasil não se comprometeu em apoiar apenas a América Latina, se por acaso o sr. for eliminado?
A posição do governo foi uma posição sistêmica e coerente com práticas de organismos internacionais. Há uma alternância entre desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Outro conceito é a rotatividade geográfica. Como já houve um asiático na OMC, seria a vez de um latino-americano ou africano.
Folha de S. Paulo - Candidato do Brasil à direção da OMC se afasta de posição do país
Política comercial tida como protecionista pode atrapalhar Azevêdo
DE SÃO PAULO - Tanto na sua apresentação ao Conselho-Geral da OMC (Organização Mundial do Comércio) quanto na entrevista coletiva que a seguiu, o candidato do Brasil à direção-geral do organismo, embaixador Roberto Azevêdo, fez questão de marcar sua distância da posição brasileira sobre temas de comércio.
Tida como protecionista, a política comercial do Brasil pode ser uma pedra no sapato do candidato -representante do país na OMC desde 2008- na disputa à liderança da entidade voltada para a liberalização do comércio.
"Agora sou candidato. Fiz questão de que eles soubessem que estou aqui expressando minhas opiniões, e não as do governo brasileiro. É importante que isso fique bem claro desde o começo", disse, em entrevista transmitida via internet, de Genebra.
O brasileiro voltou a criticar a paralisia na área de negociações da OMC e disse que, "a não ser que a OMC volte a apresentar resultados", continuará "fora do radar".
Para Azevêdo, o grande desafio do próximo diretor-geral será destravar a rodada Doha (de liberalização do comércio) -e que, para isso, é preciso "um novo olhar".
"Se você fizer as coisas da mesma maneira, a chance de avançar é zero. Tem que fazer diferente. Como? Eu não sei", reconheceu. "Mas muitas vezes, quando ajudei a destravar impasses, também não sabia."
Azevêdo disputa o posto com outros oito candidatos -dois deles latino-americanos. O mexicano Herminio Blanco já sugeriu que os nomes da região se unam para fortalecer a candidatura do "melhor".
O Brasil, porém, parece pouco disposto a unir forças com os latinos. Ontem, Azevêdo desconversou sobre a ideia: "O Brasil deixou claro que apoia um novo diretor-geral de um país em desenvolvimento", disse, incluindo os africanos entre a preferência.
Na última semana, o Brasil enviou um alto diplomata à cúpula da União Africana, na Etiópia, com cartas a mais de 20 países pedindo apoio a Azevêdo. A ideia é que o brasileiro seja a segunda opção desses países, que devem apoiar, primeiro, Gana ou Quênia. (ISABEL FLECK)
Folha de S. Paulo - Embaixador tem discurso de um profissional do comércio / Análise / Clóvis Rossi
O discurso com que o embaixador Roberto Azevêdo se apresentou ontem a seus pares da Organização Mundial do Comércio é uma peça típica de um profissional do comércio e da negociação.
O embaixador sabe perfeitamente que o maior obstáculo que sua candidatura enfrenta é o rótulo de protecionista que está sendo aplicado às políticas comerciais brasileiras e, por extensão, ao que as defende em Genebra.
Por isso mesmo, Azevêdo, como a Folha já havia antecipado domingo, tratou de deixar claro o que deveria ser óbvio, mas que disputas eleitorais acabam obscurecendo: Roberto Azevêdo, como embaixador do Brasil, defende as posições do governo brasileiro; Roberto Azevêdo, como diretor-geral da OMC, defenderá que "comércio é um elemento indispensável para o crescimento e desenvolvimento de qualquer economia".
O embaixador tem dito a amigos que nem sequer seria candidato se não acreditasse nas virtudes do livre-comércio, que, enfim, é a missão central atribuída à OMC. Mas, atenção, não é o comércio como um fim em si mesmo, mas "como um meio de melhorar as condições de vida das famílias no mundo real".
Azevêdo adiantou, no entanto, poucas pistas sobre o que pretende fazer para tirar do pântano a Rodada Doha, o mais ambicioso projeto de liberalização comercial que o mundo lançou, já faz 12 anos.
Para o diplomata brasileiro, na verdade são quase "duas décadas de estagnação no front negociador", contando o tempo perdido desde a transformação do antigo Gatt (Acordo Geral de Tarifas e Comércio) em OMC, em 1995, até o lançamento da Rodada Doha (2001).
Azevêdo limitou-se a dizer que "o sistema [multilateral de comércio] precisa ser atualizado ou logo se tornará incapaz de lidar com as demandas de um mundo transformado".
Que atualizações, ele já tem na cabeça, mas não era o momento de dizer porque a etapa de ontem faz parte do que, no jargão da OMC, se chama de "concurso de Miss Simpatia", uma avaliação mais da personalidade do candidato do que propriamente do conteúdo de suas propostas.
Brasil Econômico - Candidato à direção da OMC, Azevêdo promete que retomará rodada Doha
Em discurso de apresentação ao cargo, embaixador brasileiro aponta paralisia do órgão de comércio mundial
Ruy Barata Neto, de Brasília - A retomada das negociações da Rodada Doha, paralisada há mais de 11 anos, será o principal desafio a ser perseguido pelo embaixador brasileiro Roberto Carvalho de Azevêdo caso assuma a diretoria-geral da Organização Mundial do Comércio (OMC). Representante permanente do Brasil no órgão desde 2008, Azevêdo aparece como um dos favoritos da disputa à sucessão do francês Pascal Lamy, cujo mandato termina em agosto.
Responsável por encerrar, ontem, a fase de apresentação dos candidatos, Azevêdo aposta na sua qualificação técnica para ganhar a disputa e conseguir destravar as negociações da rodada Doha durante o mandato. "Tenho o expertise necessário para fazer isso porque já pude atuar tanto no nível técnico quanto no estratégico, além de contar com a confiança dos membros da OMC, ter um histórico de transparência nas negociações e diálogo com as mais diferentes tendências da organização", afirma Azevêdo.
Um dos concorrentes mais fortes do embaixador brasileiro é o mexicano Herminio Blanco, economista e ex-ministro do comércio e indústria. A experiência ministerial é apontada como uma vantagem em relação ao concorrente brasileiro que ainda não assumiu tal cargo. Mas, segundo Azevêdo, esta lacuna não deverá ser um problema na disputa.
Na avaliação do brasileiro as soluções para o impasse da Rodada Doha dependerão do conhecimento a cerca do processo do histórico das negociações da OMC, sobretudo no âmbito técnico. "É preciso expertise para se achar solução, e isso, francamente, não acontece no nível ministerial", afirma. "Não estou dizendo que ex-ministros não são capazes de fazê-lo, mas você tem que observar o caminho antes de se fechar um acordo."
Azevêdo também lembrou que até antes da criação da OMC, em 1994, nenhum dos diretos gerais do órgão equivalente eram de nível ministerial. "Todas as rodadas de negociação foram concluídas por estas pessoas", afirma. "Aliás, desde 1995, quando a diretoria passou a ser composta por ministros, nenhuma rodada foi concluída."
Ex-ministro das relações exteriores do governo Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Luiz Felipe Lampreia afirma que a experiência de Azevêdo na OMC o torna o mais qualificado entre os concorrentes ao cargo. Ele concorda com Azevêdo a respeito da urgência no avanço das negociações de Doha. "Se não tiver novos avanços como as rodadas de liberalização do comércio e de redução de obstáculos comerciais, a OMC esta fadada a ser apenas um mecanismo de solução de controvérsias", afirma.
Segundo Lampreia, as chances do embaixador brasileiro são grandes por conta da predisposição dos membros da OMC em elegerem um diretor-geral representante de um país emergente. "É a bola da vez", afirma. Além de Blanco, está na disputa Anabel González, ministra de comércio exterior da Costa Rica, como a terceira representante da América Latina. De países da África aparecem Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen, ex-ministro de Comércio e Indústria de seu país de Ghana, e a embaixadora Amina C. Mohamed, do Kenya.
Ao todo, disputam nove candidatos. Além dos já citados, estão no páreo representante da Indonésia, Nova Zelândia, Jordânia e Coreia do Sul. O novo diretor geral deve ser nomeado por consenso antes do fim de maio e assumirá suas funções no começo de setembro.
Valor Econômico – Brasileiro é destaque na apresentação de candidatos à OMC
Por Assis Moreira | De Genebra
Encerrada a fase de apresentação dos nove candidatos para substituir Pascal Lamy na direção-geral da Organização Mundial do Comércio (OMC), dois ou três candidatos se destacaram, na percepção de vários negociadores em Genebra. Os candidatos da Nova Zelândia, Tim Groser, e do Brasil, Roberto Azevedo, são apontados como os que tiveram melhor desempenho diante dos 158 países membros. Alguns delegados incluem a candidata da Costa Rica, Anabel Gonzalez, que teria ido melhor do que se esperava.
A apresentação dos candidatos na OMC é um processo necessário, mas não decisivo. Se acertou no desempenho, se mantém no páreo. Se errou, pode perder algum apoio. Mas a decisão de cada país sobre quem vai apoiar será tomada nas capitais, no jogo de barganhas e consultas com os parceiros
A diferença é que Tim Groser, de país desenvolvido e que já comandou a OMC, pode ter pouca chance de prosperar, a não ser que os países desenvolvidos queiram comprar uma enorme briga com países em desenvolvimento, que consideram ser a vez de um de seus candidatos.
Para Azevedo, muito agora dependerá da movimentação de Brasília, dos contatos diretos da presidente Dilma Rousseff com outros presidentes em busca de apoio. Curiosamente, muitas delegações mencionam telefonemas recebidos, mas nenhum fala de chamada do Palácio do Planalto.
Nas apresentações, nenhum dos nove candidatos correu grande risco. Mas, dependendo de quem se ouvia, os comentários eram de que alguns candidatos teriam chocado seus próprios apoiadores, sobretudo os de Gana e Quênia, aparentemente mais interessados em tranquilizar os países desenvolvidos.
Houve repetição de muita banalidade sobre o papel da OMC, o que cada um acha que pode fazer etc. A falta de humildade também parece ter atacado os candidatos. Tudo é usado para carregar a favor ou contra o favorito.
Pelo que se deduz das percepções, no grupo do meio aparecem três candidatos.
O mexicano Herminio Blanco deixou poucas lembranças. Na verdade, a impressão que ele dá é de até poder ser um bom negociador para o México, o que é diferente de ser um mediador para acordos. O candidato da Coreia do Sul, o ministro de Comércio, Taeho Barq, não deu má impressão. Mas dificilmente terá apoios importantes, na opinião de alguns participantes. A candidata da Indonésia, Mari Pangestu, apareceu adoentada, insistiu que atrás de seu sorriso pode ser dura e tampouco surpreendeu muito.
No último grupo estão os candidatos de Gana, Jordânia e Quênia. O ganense Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen é, porém, o favorito na casa de aposta eletrônica Paddy Power, em Londres.
Os candidatos terão agora fevereiro e março para fazer campanha. Enquanto isso, em Genebra os embaixadores decidirão quais as regras que serão utilizadas para as consultas a serem feitas aos países a respeito dos candidatos.
Assim, provavelmente só em abril começará a série de consultas aos países. A expectativa é de que inicialmente haverá a eliminação de dois ou três candidatos, pelo menos. Se não houver uma guerra, como já ocorreu no passado, com candidato recusando a sair do páreo, no fim de abril a OMC terá escolhido seu novo diretor-geral.

Integracao sul-americana (da droga), 2 - na mala diplomatica? - Opiniao e Noticia

E já que estamos falando de droga, tem algumas que viajam de primeira classe, e pretendem entrar sem controle, ou melhor, com todos os privilégios e imunidades da Convenção de Viena sobre Relações Diplomáticas. Vai ser preciso atualizar esse velho instrumento (1962, se não me engano) das relações internacionais...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

O segredo da mala

PF deteve um portador de mala diplomática sob forte suspeita de carregamento de cocaína

por Leandro Mazzini
Um incidente em Brasília é digno de script hollywoodiano. Acionada no desembarque do Aeroporto Internacional, a Polícia Federal deteve um portador de mala diplomática, de origem de país sul-americano, sob forte suspeita de carregamento de cocaína. Malas diplomáticas têm passe livre e não podem ser abertas, mas a PF não liberou a entrada do material. O Itamaraty entrou no circuito e autorizou o desembarque do rapaz, que descobriu-se depois ser namorado do filho do embaixador hermano.
Abafa
O episódio ocorrido nesta semana ficou oficioso, não registrado nos autos da PF e do Itamaraty, para evitar constrangimentos e crise entre os dois países.
Volta pra casa
As autoridades brasileiras não deixaram barato: no reenvio da mala para o aeroporto de origem, avisaram da suspeita da droga. Mas o desembarque ficou um mistério.
O bem-vindo
O embaixador e o filho enamorado foram parar no aeroporto. Diplomatas convenceram a PF a liberar o passageiro. Pois não havia prova de que sabia do conteúdo.
O Mala
Caiu o conceito da Embaixada em Brasília. O rapaz envolvido é tratado como “O Mala diplomático”. Como o caso é oficioso, a coluna preserva os envolvidos.

Integracao sul-americana (da droga) - tem tarifa comum para o produto? - Juan Forero (NPR)

Confesso não saber se a branquinha, a cocaina -- em pó, pasta base ou qualquer outra forma -- tem uma classificação aduaneira, ou seja, os 9 ou 10 dígitos do Sistema Harmonizado da Aladi que serve para classificar os milhares de itens que entram na pauta aduaneira de comércio exterior de um país, no caso, os nossos países, o Brasil e seus simpáticos vizinhos, que devem estar ganhando uma grana preta com a droga branca.
Em todo caso, apreciaria que alguém me dissesse qual a Nomenclatura Aduaneira do Mercosul que classifica a droga, uma vez que ela pode, teoricamente, ser exportada legalmente, para fins de pesquisa ou para uso médico, por exemplo. E qual seria a tarifa aplicada, por favor, se está em lista de exceção, se está prevista convergência em algum momento (no livre comércio total que um dia deve existir, caramba, inclusive com a legalização dessa importante commodity do comércio mundial).
Enquanto isso, ela continua a provocar destruição, morte, corrupção, tangos e tragédias neste nosso canto de planeta que alguns pretendem integrado. Também acho, mas não sempre pelas vias corretas.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Brazilian federal police patrol the Mamore River, which separates Brazil from Bolivia. The river is used by traffickers to ferry cocaine from Bolivia into Brazil, where cocaine consumption is rising rapidly.
Juan Forero/Getty Images
As cocaine consumption falls in the United States, South American drug traffickers have begun to pioneer a new soft target for their product: big and increasingly affluent Brazil.
And the source of the cocaine is increasingly Bolivia, a landlocked country that shares a 2,100-mile border with Brazil.
As Brazilian police officers and border agents can attest, the drug often finds its way to Brazil by crossing the Mamore River, which separates the state of Rondonia from Bolivia in the heart of South America.
It is not an easy border to patrol. Much of it is porous jungle or river. It is also a big border, bigger than the U.S.-Mexico line that has caused so much trouble for both the Obama administration and Mexico's government.
Worse still is that Bolivia, along with Peru and Colombia, are the three biggest cocaine-producing countries — and Brazil shares 5,000 miles of frontier with them.
An agent of Brazil's Forca Nacional, an agency made up of military policemen, stands guard in a largely abandoned border hamlet that is used by drug traffickers to ferry cocaine from neighboring Bolivia.
Juan Forero/NPR
A perfect route for the transport of cocaine is the Mamore River, which meanders northward from Bolivia into the heart of Brazil's Amazon. So say the Brazilian cops who use a speedboat to patrol the wide, slow-moving Mamore near the Brazilian border town of Guajara-Mirim.
"Here we patrol at dawn and at night, looking to ambush the boats that cross with drugs," says Alexandre Nascimento, a federal police agent who piloted the boat. "But it's difficult and dangerous, and you have to have patience."
The agents also say they have to have a degree of luck, to decipher which of the countless small boats that cross the river from Bolivia are carrying drugs.
Most don't stop at the major border crossings, but rather find their way along narrow channels and drop off their goods at isolated ports.
"There are many ports," says Alexandre Barbosa, another federal agent. "Every 100 meters or sometimes less, you see a port. So you can move from one port to the other very fast."
Brazilian and U.N. counternarcotics officials say those little boats making quick trips, along with small planes that make 20-minute flights, are flooding Brazil with Bolivian cocaine.
As Brazil Grows Richer, Cocaine Use Rises
The reasons are simple: Brazil, long the world's No. 2 consumer of cocaine after the United States, is seeing consumption rise fast. And Bolivia is responding to the demand, increasing its production of cocaine in recent years, according to U.N. and U.S. data.
"You've seen a shift where the drug traffickers are looking for a new market, new and emerging markets," says Bo Mathiasen, a senior U.N. drug official who tracks the cocaine trade across the continent. "And so the traffickers have been focusing on trying to ship more cocaine over towards Brazil, to Argentina and down to Chile."
It is Brazil, though, that is the big prize out of the many countries that have seen a spike in cocaine use in recent years. Brazil has lifted 30 million people into the middle class in recent years. For traffickers, that's particularly alluring, Mathiasen says.
"Brazil is in a way victim of its own success," he says. "Clearly, the economic success and the rising purchasing power and the growth of the economy turned it more attractive also for drug trafficking."
The turn toward Brazil has come as cocaine use in the United States has fallen by an estimated two-thirds over the past 30 years, according to the United Nations 2012 World Drug Report, which says the trend has been particularly notable since 2006.
Meanwhile, Colombia, which has historically supplied cocaine to the U.S., has seen the amount of land dedicated to drug crops reduced by half since 2001.
Cocaine production has also fallen steeply.
Increased Production In Peru And Bolivia
Peru and Bolivia have picked up the slack, with the cocaine from Bolivia proving to be the biggest challenge, according to Brazilian police.
"We see this as a problem of security and, at times, a problem of national defense," says Regina Miki, national secretary of public security at Brazil's Ministry of Justice.
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff's government has since 2011 moved to shore up border security by deploying thousands of troops and assigning more and better equipped federal police agents to the border.
There are also plans for a fleet of unmanned aerial drones to patrol the most remote sectors. In a recent hearing in the capital, Brasilia, Justice Minister Jose Eduardo Cardozo said Brazil moved fast and aggressively.
"It's impossible to have a border that's invulnerable, because no country in the world has that," he said. "But our frontiers are much better controlled than in the past."
But out on Brazil's frontier with Bolivia, the Mamore River, it's clear how difficult the challenge is for a group of 35 federal agents assigned to patrol just one sector.
On a recent day, heavy rains fell and the Mamore and other rivers became swollen. Meanwhile, the small dugout canoes from Bolivia kept coming, loaded with provisions and suitcases, boxes and equipment.
In their speedboat, the federal officers dashed from one side of the Mamore to the other, trying to decide which boats to stop and search. With the river running high, they also had another problem to worry about: small creeks that had been made navigable by the constant rainfall.
"Look, even here, in front of us, you can see a canal," says Allan Oliveira, one of the agents. "You can go in with the small boats traffickers use to hide from the police."

Povo judeu: vinte razoes da excelencia - Hank Pelissier (Transhumanity)

Esta postagem, enorme, ou comprida (como quiserem), é para ser lida em conexão com esta outra, anterior, uma simples resenha de livro, que postei em função da imensa curiosidade que eu sempre mantive com respeito às contribuições importantíssimas que esse pequeno povo ofereceu a toda a humanidade:

Judisches Bildung: a construcao de um povo pela educao - Book review

As razões não são uniformes, nem qualitativamente comparáveis ou mensuráveis entre si, e são essencialmente arbitrárias, mas todas relevantes, historicamente, socialmente, intelectualmente.
Um pouco de inteligência sempre ajuda na construção de uma humanidade melhor...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Why is the IQ of Ashkenazi Jews so High? - 20 Possible Explanations


Ashkenazi Jews are smart. Shockingly brilliant, in general. Impressive in brain power. How did they get that way?
Ashkenazi Jews, aka Ashkenazim, are the descendants of Jews from medieval Alsace and the Rhine Valley, and later, from throughout Eastern Europe.  Originally, of course, they were from Israel. Genetic research from the Albert Einstein College of Medicine suggests that the Ashkenazi bloodline branched away from other Jewish groups there 2,500 years ago, and that 40% of them are descended from only four Jewish mothers. Approximately 80% of the Jews in the world today are Ashkenazim, with the remainder primarily Sephardic.
Researchers who study the Ashkenazim agree that the children of Abraham are on top of the IQ chart. Steven Pinker – who lectured on “Jews, Genes, and Intelligence” in 2007 - says “their average IQ has been measured at 108-115.” Richard Lynn, author of “The Intelligence of American Jews” in 2004, says it is “only” a half-standard higher: 107.5.  Henry Harpending, Jason Hardy, and Gregory Cochran, University of Utah authors of the 2005 research report, “Natural History of Ashkenazi Intelligence,” state that their subjects, “score .75 to 1.0 standard deviations above the general European average, corresponding to an IQ of 112-115.” Charles Murray, in his 2007 essay “Jewish Genius,” says “their mean is somewhere in the range of 107-115, with 110 being a plausible compromise.”
A Jewish average IQ of 115 is 8 points higher than the generally accepted IQ of their closest rivals—Northeast Asians—and approximately 40% higher than the global average IQ of 79.1 calculated by Richard Lynn and Tatu Vanhanen in IQ and Global Inequity.
Plus, contemplate this astounding tidbit: Ashkenazi “visual-spatial” IQ scores are only mediocre; in one study their median in this category was a below-average 98. They surmount this liability by logging astronomic figures in “verbal IQ”, which includes verbal reasoning, comprehension, working memory and mathematical skill; a 1958 survey of yeshiva students discovered a median verbal IQ of 125.6.
What does it mean that Ashkenazim have a high IQ, in terms of producing “geniuses”?  With their population so small - a mere 0.25 of the world total - does it make any serious difference?  The answer is YES.  A “bell curve” is used to illustrate IQ percentile in a specific group – in a “general population” where IQ average is 100 the curve assumes these proportions:
less than 70 IQ  - 2.5%
70-85 IQ - 12.5%
86-100 IQ - 35%
101-115 IQ – 35%
116-130 IQ – 12.5%
greater than 130 IQ – 2.5%
Applying the same bell curve for Ashkenazim, but with a 17-point upward lift in median IQ (using the From Chance To Choice digit) produces the IQ upgrade below:
less than 87 IQ – 2.5%
88-102 IQ – 12.5%
103-117 IQ – 35%
118-132 IQ – 35%
133-148 IQ – 12.5%
greater than 148 IQ – 2.5%
This shifting upward of the bell curve by more than a standard deviation (15 points) means that more than five times as many Ashkenazim are eligible for Mensa (minimum 130 IQ) and more than five times as many have the average IQ of an Ivy League graduate.
In reality, Ashkenazim are enrolled in the Ivies by a proportion ten times greater than their numbers; for example they represent 30% of Yale students, 27% of Harvard, 23% of Brown, 32% of Columbia, and 31% of Pennsylvania.
This suggests that either the “bell’s curve” is lifted for the Ashkenazi a bit longer at the high end or there are additional factors that enhance their ability to succeed. Regarding the first possibility, Charles Murray notes that “the proportion of Jews with IQs of 140 or higher is somewhere around six times the proportion of everyone else.” Harpending, Hardy and Cochran sport roughly the same equation; “4 out of every 1,000 Northern European is 140+ IQ, but 23 out of every 1,000 Jew is 140+.” Murray also relays a report from sky-high up in the genius range, when he notes that a 1954 survey of New York public school children with 170+ IQs revealed that 24 of the 28 were… Jewish.
 Now that I’ve established that Ashkenazi have superlative IQ scores, let’s observe what they’ve accomplished with their highly functional brains.
In the 19th century, Mark Twain noted that:
[The Jews] are peculiarly and conspicuously the world’s intellectual aristocracy… [Jewish] contributions to the world’s list of great names in literature, science, art, music, finance, medicine, and abstruse learning are way out of proportion to the weakness of his numbers. He has made a marvelous fight in this world… and has done it with his hands tied behind him.
Twain’s observation is not dated. Ashkenazi Jews have continued to mentally out-compete other demographics since his statement, often suffering horrendous consequences for their toil. Here is a brief list of Ashkenazi accomplishments in the last 90 years.
Nobel Prizes: Since 1950, 29% of the awards have gone to Ashkenazim, even though they represent only a small fraction of humanity. Ashkenazi achievement in this arena is 117 times greater than their population.  This pace isn’t slowing down; it is accelerating. In the 21st century, they’ve received 32% of the total, and in 2011, five of the thirteen Nobel Prize winners were Jewish – 38.5%.
Hungary in the 1930s: Ashkenazim were 6% of the population, but they comprised 55.7% of physicians, 49.2% of attorneys, 30.4% of engineers, and 59.4% of bank officers; plus, they owned 49.4% of the metallurgy industry, 41.6% of machine manufacturing, 72.8% of clothing manufacturing, and, as housing owners, they received 45.1% of Budapest rental income. Jews were similarly successful in nearby nations, like Poland and Germany.
“Significant Figures”: In “Jewish Genius” by Charles Murray, the author tallies up important contributing individuals in a variety of vocations, noting how immensely over-represented Jews are compared to what could be expected due to their small population.  His conclusion in various categories is: Biology – “significant” Jews appear 5 times greater their population, Chemistry 6X, Physics 9X, Literature 4X, Music 5X, Visual Arts 5X, Math 12X, Philosophy 14X.2
USA (today): Ashkenazi Jews comprise 2.2% of the USA population, but they represent 30% of faculty at elite colleges, 21% of Ivy League students, and 25% of the Turing Award winners. Plus, “Jews have made up 50% of the top two hundred intellectuals… 40% of partners in the leading law firms in New York and Washington… 59% of the directors, writers, and producers of the fifty top-grossing motion pictures…”
Israel: In 1922 this swamp-and-desert land had an impoverished population of 752,000 inhabitants. Today there are 7,746,000 residents, with a large Ashkenazi population (3 million, and 60% of the workforce) that has elevated it into a high-tech entrepreneurial nation with the highest per capita income in the region. Israel rates 1st in the world in graduate degrees, 1st in museums, 1st in home computers, and 1st in publishing scientific papers.
Personally, I find the Nobel Prize statistic the most amazing. Consider this: if everybody on the planet was an Ashkenazi Jew, would the result be 117 times more Nobel Prize-winning caliber individuals, with 117 times as many spectacular achievements, per annum? INSTANT SINGULARITY! Without any help from AI…
(Sephardic Jewish achievement is represented in many of the categories above, especially in Nobel Prize statistics. When this article was originally published - in a shorter version, on August 7, 2011 by the Institute for Ethics in Emerging Technology (ieet.org) – Sephardic Jews expressed some perturbation that they were omitted from the essay.  I’d like to acknowledge the immense contribution of Sephardic Jews with this all-too-brief list of notables from their lineage:
Elias Canetti (Nobel Prize in Literature, 1981), Tobias Michael Carel Asser (Nobel Peace Prize, 1911), Rene Cassin (Nobel Peace Prize, 1968), Franco Modigliani (Nobel Prize in Economics, 1985), Francois Jacob (Nobel Prize in Medicine/Physiology, 1965), Salvador Luria (Nobel Prize in Medicine/Physiology, 1969), Baruj Benacerraf (Nobel Prize in Medicine/Physiology, 1980), Rita Levi-Montalcini (Nobel Prize in Medicine/Physiology, 1986), Emilio Segre (Nobel Prize in Physics, 1959), Claude Cohen-Tannoudj (Nobel Prize in Physics, 1997), plus philosopher Jacques Derrida, economist/philanthropist Bernard Baruch, painter Amedeo Modigliani, and Benjamin Disraeli, the British Prime Minister.
In the medieval era, Sephardic achievements were also quite significant. In George Sarton’s Introduction to the History of Science, the author notes that 95 out of 626 scientists in the world from 1150-1300 were Sephardic Jews -15% - far exceeding their population proportion.
However, when Sephardic IQ is presently recorded, the sums are no higher than the northern European average, and definitively not as elevated as Ashkenazi.)
Let’s proceed. With the facts I’ve laid out, only the most obtuse reader can resist my pronouncement that Ashkenazi Jews are, on average, extraordinarily intelligent. I’m not asserting Ashkenazi cognitive specialness because I’m Philo-Semitic, or Zionist, or pro-Israeli. I’m pointing it out because it is irrefutably true.
That said, the question that my essay seeks to unravel is… Why? Why is the IQ of Ashkenazi Jews so high? Is the reason due to their genetics, environment, culture, education, or a unique combination of multiple factors?
In my initial publication of this essay, I provided eight reasons for high Ashkenazi IQ.  But then, I received a flurry of email suggestions (many from professors) providing me with additional information. Twenty theories are now listed in this expanded essay, and I’ve attempted to give my sources the credit they deserve, even though – in several instances - I don’t have their actual names, just their Internet chat-monikers. Here’s my new list – many related to each other - presented in roughly chronological order:
Babylonian Eugenics – In 586 B.C.E., Jerusalem was totally destroyed by the Babylonians, led by their monarch Nebuchadnezzar, who “carried into exile… all the [Jewish] officers and fighting men, and all the craftsmen and artisans… only the poorest people of the land were left.” (2Kings 24:10-14) The Indestructible Jews, by Max Dimont, defines the deported people as “the flower of Judah’s aristocracy and intellectuals.”
The exiled Jews of this first Diaspora became highly successful in Babylon. Dimont claims, “In the libraries of Babylon, intellectual Jews found a new world of new ideas. Within five decades, exiled Jews bobbed to the surface of the top echelons on Babylonian society, in business enterprises, in the scholastic world, in court circles. They became leaders in commerce, men of learning, advisors to kings.”
In 538 B.C.E., the Persian king Cyrus the Great granted Jews permission to return to their homeland. Wealthy Jews - who had established successful trade routes and businesses in Babylon - financed zealous returnees who wanted to re-settle Judah.  Initial attempts failed, but eventually, 1,760 settlers led by the prophet Ezra and the governor Nehemiah rebuilt the wall of Jerusalem and resurrected the nation. These “Babylonian” Jews returning to Israel discovered that their poorer brethren that were left behind a half-century earlier had slipped away via assimilation, vanishing into neighboring pagan creeds. Cyril Darlington, in his The Evolution of Man and Society, suggests that the temporary separation of the Jewish elite, and permanent removal of the uneducated and unskilled, provided a genetic intellectual boost to the creed.
The returning Jews also instituted two customs that enhanced the mental solidity of their culture’s future. A ban on intermarriage with Gentiles was enforced, and the first five books of Moses were canonized, as the Torah.
People of the Difficult Book: The Torah (the first five books of the Jewish Bible) and the Talmud (recordings of rabbinic discussions) are intellectually complex and sophisticated. Practitioners of Judaism are required to learn and study the extensive, mentally rigorous laws. Thematic content of the scriptural passages is not simplistic or literal, it is, conversely, designed for comprehension on multiple, abstract, metaphorical levels. Blind faith and slavish devotion, encouraged by other faiths, is not conducive to Judaism. Instead, worship in the ancient monotheism demands significant literacy skills due to the cognitive demands of the texts, with tradition maintaining that understanding the Talmud requires “study of seven hours a day for seven years.” Charles Murray notes that, “no other religion made so many demands upon the whole body of its believers,” with the subsequent analysis that, “Judaism evolved in such a way that to be a good Jew meant that a man had to be smart.”
Healthy Hygiene & Diet: Professor Sam Lehman-Wilzig of Bar-Ilan University in Israel provided me with this theory. His suggestion is based on the fact that - due to their customary practices - the Jews probably enjoyed better hygiene than Gentiles. He points to the Jewish washing of hands before every meal, the men bathing at least once a week in the “mikveh” (a purification bathhouse) and the women bathing at least once a month, after their menstruation was over. He also notes the restriction on pork prevented Jews from contracting trichinosis. (Famous casualties of this parasitic disease include Gautama Buddha and Wolfgang Mozart). With lower disease rates, Jewish bodies would not have suffered as much as Gentiles and this would have improved their mental capacities.
This notion has been repeated elsewhere. In 1953, research by Johns Hopkins University pharmacologist David I. Macht surmised that all the dozens of meat items banned by Jewish dietary laws in Deuteronomy and Leviticus were, in fact, more toxic than the kosher flesh that was permitted. Additionally, in the recent book Survival of the Sickest, author Sharon Moalem suggests that Jews removing leaven from their homes during Passover helped keep out the rats that spread bubonic plague in the 13th century. Last but not least, wealthy Ashkenazi Jews dwelling in larger houses in eastern Europe would have survived epidemics easier because they didn’t suffer the same high multiple infection rate that occurred in smaller homes with greater crowding.
Extensive correlation between high IQ, healthy diet, infectious diseases, sanitation, and home crowding, is examined via research studies in later chapters of this book, particularly in “Early Years.”
Education Emphasized, Way Back in B.C. – Jeremiah Unterman of Jerusalem informed me that the Torah instructs every Jewish father to teach the Torah to his children, and Marisa Landau notes on a futurepundit.com 6/4/05 discussion that it’s forbidden by the Jewish religion to keep child illiterate. Additionally, Landau  reports that Jewish women learned to read and write, a phenomenon that was unique in the ancient world. Landau also mentions that it has long been a custom among Jews to provide a full pension - for up to 10 years – to an intelligent son-in-law who wishes to entirely devote himself to study. The Jews, it seems, invented the notion of “scholarships.”
In the medieval era, the French monk, Peter Abelard (1079-1142) penned this about Jewish education: “A Jew, however poor, even if he had ten sons, would get them all to letters, not for gain as the Christians do, but for understanding of God’s law.  And not only for his sons, but his daughters.”
Mandatory Schools For Males - In 64 A.D., the high priest Joshua ben Gamla issued and implemented an ordinance mandating schools for all boys, beginning at age 6. Within 100 years, Jews had established universal male literacy and numeracy, the first ethnicity in history to achieve this.
The progressive, demanding edict created a huge demographic shift. The high, oft-times prohibitive cost of educating children in the subsistence farming economy of the 2nd to 6th centuries prompted numerous Jews to voluntarily convert to Christianity, leading to a decline in Jewish population from 4.5 million to 1.2 million.
Natural “eugenics” favored two groups in this situation: 1) the sons of wealthier, ostensibly more intelligent Jews, who could provide greater funding for the schools that maintained their offspring’s membership as Jews, and, 2) the smartest boys who could quickly learn reading, writing and arithmetic at a pace at which they could afford to “stay Jewish.”
Who was left out? Removed from the gene pool? Answer: the poorer, uneducated Jews, and/or those with the lowest IQ.
Urban Upgrade – 80-90% of Jews were farmers in 1 AD.  But only 10-20% remained in agriculture by 1000 A.D. The education required by Joshua ben Gamla’s edict delivered verbal and math skills to Jewish boys, enabling them to move out of subsistence rural life into highly-skilled urban professions, involving sales, trade, and financial transactions.
Moving from a pastoral environment into cities implements an IQ boost, due to urbanism’s increased complexity, literacy, and technology. A Hanoi National University study in 2006 showed a whopping 19.4 IQ difference between city and country students.  A 1970 survey in Greece recorded a difference of 10-13 points. Other studies note smaller discrepancies of only 2-6 points, but unanimously, urban residents always score higher, and Jews are one of the world’s longest-urbanized ethnicities.
Dialectic and Rational Thought – Dr. Sam Lehman-Wilzig informed me that one of the noteworthy approaches to Jewish learning is “dialectic.”  The Talmud itself is not a “law code” but instead, a huge compendium of ARGUMENTS. Jews are encouraged to see different perspectives of an issue, and they’re taught to question everything, including the Law, the Rabbi’s logic, and one’s own belief system. Rabbis developed argumentative principles, an entire system of questioning that the Jews have utilized for 2,000 years in both religious and secular debates.
Dialectic was not a ‘Jewish’ invention: it was a learning technique that Jews borrowed and adapted from Greek philosophy; the synthesis is a ‘Socratic-Jewish methodology.’ Traces of the Greek influence are evident in the Passover Seder where the Jewish father reclines on a pillow (similar to the Greeks) while the youngest Jewish child asks Four Questions. This method of learning was unique during the Middle Ages, compared to Catholic Europe’s ‘authoritative’ traditions.
Dr. Sanford Aranoff, Professor of Science and Mathematics at Rider University, conveyed to me a similar message. In his opinion, Judaism is based on principles of rational thought. (Rational thinking begins with clearly stated principles, continues with logical deductions, and then examines empirical evidence to possibly modify the principles.)
The analytic, strategic skills developed in both Jewish dialectic and critical thinking are an important component of IQ tests, and they’re essential in legal, academic, science, and engineering careers.
Clever Clerics Propagate: A major difference between Catholicism and Judaism is that priests have been celibate since the 4th century Council of Carthage decreed that they abstain from conjugal relations, whereas Jewish rabbis have always been encouraged to marry and multiply. In the Middle Age this resulted in massive IQ depression for Catholics, because their brightest, academically gifted boys were usually locked up in seminaries that wasted their gene pool. Meanwhile… sage, scholastic Jewish rabbis were marrying smart women and creating large, clever families. Three tomes that examine this phenomenon are Robert Novick’s Anarchy, State and Utopia, Ernst Vandenberg’s The Jewish Mystique, and Paul Johnson’s A History of the Jews.
Breeding for Brains:
“Our Rabbis teach, Let a man sell all that he has and marry the daughter of a learned man. If he cannot find the daughter of a learned man, let him marry the daughter of one of the great men of his day. If he does not find such a one, let him marry the daughter of one of the heads of the congregation, or, failing this, the daughter of a charity collector, or even the daughter of a schoolmaster; but let him not marry the daughter of an illiterate man, for the unlearned are an abomination, as also their wives and their daughters.”   P’sachim, fol. 49, col. 2.
Judaic texts like the one above emphasize repeatedly that knowledge and intelligence are supreme virtues, with ignorance the grossest liability.  Following this dictum, the Jews enhanced their gene pool for smartnesss. In A History of the Jews, author Paul Johnson notes that, “among the Jews the most intelligent people have always been very valued and sought after as husbands, so they procreate and spread their good genes.” Charles Murray observed another matchmaking tendency, when he notes that “by marrying the children of scholars to the children of successful merchants, Jews were in effect joining those selected for abstract reasoning ability with those selected for practical intelligence.”
Meanwhile, Catholics were marrying for “class” reasons, angling for blue-blood aristocrat gains that had no link to intelligence.  Physical strength and valor was also desired, via brave knights on the battlefield - this exaltation of brawn over brains likewise did nothing to advance that religion’s collective IQ.
Trading Tongues: Ashkenazi merchants plied their wares over a vast area, originally to Islamic regions, but later internationally - from rubber in Brazil to silk in China. To prosper in the exchange, they memorized multiple languages. The stateless tribe needed diverse fluency anyway, to communicate in adopted lands with their neighbors that spoke German, Polish, Latvian, Lithuanian, Hungarian, Russian, Ukrainian, French, Dutch, etc.
The Ashkenazi developed a “fusion” tongue: Yiddish (German, Hebrew, Aramaic, plus other Slavic languages and a touch of Romance). At its height - before World War II - Yiddish was spoken by 13 million. The polyglot language produced exemplary culture in literature, theater, and film.
Neurologists today recognize that multiple language learning enhances memory, mental flexibility, problem solving, abstract thinking, and creative hypothesis formulation. Explanations of the benefits abound; I recommend listening to the video, “Bilingualism Will Supercharge Your Baby’s Brain.”
Squeezed Into Brilliance: Jews in Europe were officially excluded from “common” occupations such as agriculture from 800-1700 A.D. Indeed, they were usually not allowed to own land. The restrictions forced Ashkenazim for 900 years into urban vocations that were cognitively more demanding, such as trade, bookkeeping, commerce, sales, and investment. The frequent Christian prohibition against charging of interest in money lending - prohibited as “usury” – assisted in opening up financial banking occupations for Jews. Historical records reveal that 80% of the Jews in Roussilon, southern France, in 1270 were money-lenders.
Later, after they were evicted from Western Europe, Ashkenazim were welcomed in Poland as urban investors and initiators of trade who could help modernize the nation. They were also in great demand in middle management positions because they had mathematic and business administration skills.
Ashkenazim who weren’t mathematically and verbally adept enough to succeed in these “white collar” jobs drifted away from Judaism—low IQs were pushed out. Conversely, the most successful merchants and number crunchers raised larger families, passing on an increasing percentage of algebraic brains.
Winnowed By Persecution: The most intelligent and/or wealthy Ashkenazim were better equipped to escape Inquisitions, pogroms, persecutions, holocausts, and other genocidal threats because they: 1) could afford to emigrate; 2) could predict the need to do so; and 3) had social and economic opportunities in the nations they fled to. Poorer, less connected, and less astute Ashkenazi ranks thus were inexorably depleted.
The repeated annihilation, expulsion, and flight of the Jewish people is universally known. The first Diaspora to Babylonia has already been mentioned. A second Diaspora is popularly regarded as a series of dispersals from Israel after the failure of Jewish revolts against the Roman Empire from 70 C.E. – 135 C.E. In 629 C.E., King Dagobert of the Franks ordered the Jews to convert, leave his land, or face execution. The First Crusade, 1096-1099 C.E., cruelly slaughtered thousands of Ashkenazi, an estimated 25%. Jews were expelled from England in 1290, France in 1394 and parts of Germany in the 15th century. Pogroms in the Russian Empire in the 19th and early 20th century murdered substantial numbers of Jews, and the Holocaust, instigated by Adolf Hitler, led to the genocide of approximately six million, primarily Ashkenazi.
Whenever and wherever persecution began, Jews were more likely to escape if they could pay their way out, or were wealthy enough to have horses, carriages, employees as guards, rich relatives to flee to, and friends in “high places.”  High IQ has frequently been correlated with economic success.
Sick Genius: Ashkenazim are prey to about nineteen debilitating genetic diseases, and it’s been surmised that several of them might have cognitive “side effects” that can enhance intelligence. Many of the disorders can kill or severely weaken those who have two copies of the gene, but if you inherit just one, you get a “heterozygote advantage” that can include neuron growth promotion and accelerated interconnection of brain cells. For example, having just one of the allele in Tay-Sachs and Niemann-Pick – GM2ganglioside - could moderately increase dentrite growth.
Another Ashkenazi ailment is Gaucher’s disease, which seems to promote axonal growth and branching.  A survey discovered that out of 255 employed patients of Gaucher’s disease at Shaare Zedek Medical Centre in Jerusalem, were in occupations that require IQs over 120, and 15% were scientists. Another survey of Ashkenazim with Torsion Dystomia revealed an average IQ of 121.
I interviewed Gregory Cochran via email; he’s the University of Utah co-author of the 2005 research report, “Natural History of Ashkenazi Intelligence.” In his words, “any IQ boost due to Gaucher’s [would be] a good deal less than 10-15 points [but] It may be that big for Torsion Dystonia: everyone who has treated them marvels at how sharp they are… [However] only a fraction [of Ashkenazi IQ elevation] is due to particular mutations like Gaucher, in our opinion.” In another interview, Cochran pinpointed the fractions as, “One in two thousand Askenazi, at most, carry a Tay-Sachs mutation and a Gaucher mutation, the two most common.”
Ashkenazim are not an isolated ethnicity, after residing with Eastern European neighbors for over a millennium.  While many observers suggest that they’re 30% European, an Emory University study concluded that researchers “were able to estimate that between 35 and 55 percent of the modern Ashkenazi genome comes from European descent.”
Positive Thinking – Aubrey Max Sandman, PhD, an electrical engineer in London, sent me an email asserting that positive attitude is what counts, not genetics. His opinion is that non-Jews do not work as hard as Jews, to attain their full potential.
In actuality, “positive thinking” actually does elevate IQ.  2011 research at Michigan State University revealed that a subject’s “mind set” makes a difference in intelligence because their attitude determines if they react productively, or self-destructively, to their mistakes. The report will soon be published, hopefully with specific data charting IQ gains, in an upcoming issue of Psychological Science.
Check Mate: Chess historically has been a highly favored activity among Ashkenazim; a 1905 magazine described it as the “Jewish National Game.” Almost 50% of Grandmasters are Ashkenazi. The visual, organizational, and strategic skills required for chess build up the precuneus in the superior parietal lobe, and the caudate nucleus, a part of the basal ganglia in the subcortical region. Admittedly, these benefits are not hereditary, but youngsters who practice the game can elevate their memory storage, strategic planning, and IQ.
Additional information about the benefits of chess can be found in my later chapter, “School Years.”
Melodic Minds: Music has been revered in Jewish religious traditions for 3,000 years. Klezmer “reached a very high level of sophistication and ornamentation,” according to the Jewish Music Institute, and Ashkenazi composers and instrumentalists contribute hugely to Western classical music (one history site declares,  “The Jews ‘Own’ the Violin”). Have centuries of practice paid off? Researchers today believe music training optimizes neuron development and improves brain function in math, analysis, memory, creativity, stress management, concentration, motivation, and science.
Additional information about the benefits of musical training can be found in the following chapters: “Early Years” and “School Years.”
Comfortable Supportive Families, With High Expectations: Success promotes success, on the neurological level. Victory provides a rush of dopamine, a neurotransmitter that activates motivation for further accomplishments. Ashkenazi children generally understand they are capable of high achievement, and they’re urged to develop their skills for contribution to humanity.
Is stern discipline necessary to produce these results? Ashkenazim have long discouraged spanking of their children; strong familial ties, incessant encouragement, and hard focused work at excellent institutions, seems to be sufficient.
Available income that allows offspring to study and develop intellectually is also important; wealth also permits access to elite schools. Surveys indicate that American Jews earn about twice the income of non-Jews, plus they have 2.5 times more capital assets. The result?  The average American Jew receives 2.5 more years of education. Even during the Middle Age many Jews were upper and middle class in economic status, a condition that secured good education for their children.
 Untermensch Go Elsewhere? A 40+-year old Jewish commenter from New York City with the nomenclature “ASAMATTEROFFACT” informed me that - in his opinion - Ashkenazi who lack high intelligence and creativity end up feeling inferior.  He believes this eventually leads to the “untermensch” marrying outside of the tribe. Only the ubermensch remain to reproduce. His point of view was echoed by another poster - Efox” - who stated that less intelligent Jews incapable of being their own “Priest” inevitably left Judaism to join another religion.
Empathetic Rabbis – A commenter who identified himself as “zeev from jew york city” informed me that many rabbis were “Einsteins of Empathy” – amazingly kind, patient, loving and understanding of other humans. The high-level “empaths” impacted their congregations, making their lives better and promoting their ambitions and enterprizes.
In later chapters (“Early Years” and “School Years”) I discuss the IQ-boosting benefits of “Emotional Support” and “Teacher Effectiveness” – two gifts that were undoubtedly provided by compassionate rabbis.
Fear of Anti-Semitism? – Commenter “Morris Wise” stated a paranoiac position after reading my original article on the instapundit.com website.  In his opinion, Jews are driven to attain high academic success, career achievement, and wealth, because they want to feel safe, protected and insulated from anti-Jewish feelings in the outside community.  This point-of-view can, of course, be justified by the long history of resentment and persecution that Jews have experienced.
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Twenty explanations for high Ashkenazi IQ!  My opinion? Regarding the fourscore? They’re possibly all correct, and valuable to contemplate. However, what I find most intriguing are the “environmental” factors that are accessible to all humanity.
I wonder: if the people of the world really want high-level intellectual achievement, why don’t we play chess with our children at night, instead of tossing them a violent video game? Why can’t we listen to their classical compositions on the weekend, instead of urging them to get concussions on the football field? Isn’t a “dietary code” actually an excellent idea, in American culture with its 33.5% adult obesity? Why can’t we provide them with excellent schools, entice them to learn foreign grammar, and convince them to believe in and expand their abilities, instead of forcing them to endure years of educational mediocrity and expecting nothing back but the same?
If all humanity adopted the best available characteristics of successful cultures like the Ashkenazi, would we, as a whole, immensely benefit? Would we learn more quickly, more deeply, and produce greater wonders? Would we become over- instead of under-achievers?
If we promoted high IQ behavior to humans everywhere, globally, would we all become… enhanced? Better humans?
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To read the sixty-four footnotes and references, plus twelve additional essays on intelligence, you can purchase the book Why is the IQ of Ashkenazi Jews so High? Scientific Factors that Influence Intelligence
Essays on IQ, Brain Health, etc.
Why is the IQ of Ashekenazi Jews so High? 20 Possible Explanations

Siria: um vespeiro geopolitico - Scott Stewart (Stratfor)

The Consequences of Intervening in Syria

Stratfor, January 31, 2013 | 1030 GMT
By Scott Stewart
Vice President of Analysis

The French military's current campaign to dislodge jihadist militants from northern Mali and the recent high-profile attack against a natural gas facility in Algeria are both directly linked to the foreign intervention in Libya that overthrew the Gadhafi regime. There is also a strong connection between these events and foreign powers' decision not to intervene in Mali when the military conducted a coup in March 2012. The coup occurred as thousands of heavily armed Tuareg tribesmen were returning home to northern Mali after serving in Moammar Gadhafi's military, and the confluence of these events resulted in an implosion of the Malian military and a power vacuum in the north. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and other jihadists were able to take advantage of this situation to seize power in the northern part of the African nation.
As all these events transpire in northern Africa, another type of foreign intervention is occurring in Syria. Instead of direct foreign military intervention, like that taken against the Gadhafi regime in Libya in 2011, or the lack of intervention seen in Mali in March 2012, the West -- and its Middle Eastern partners -- have pursued a middle-ground approach in Syria. That is, these powers are providing logistical aid to the various Syrian rebel factions but are not intervening directly.
Just as there were repercussions for the decisions to conduct a direct intervention in Libya and not to intervene in Mali, there will be repercussions for the partial intervention approach in Syria. Those consequences are becoming more apparent as the crisis drags on.

Intervention in Syria

For more than a year now, countries such as the United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and European states have been providing aid to the Syrian rebels. Much of this aid has been in the form of humanitarian assistance, providing things such as shelter, food and medical care for refugees. Other aid has helped provide the rebels with non-lethal military supplies such as radios and ballistic vests. But a review of the weapons spotted on the battlefield reveals that the rebels are also receiving an increasing number of lethal supplies.
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For example, there have been numerous videos released showing Syrian rebels using weapons such as the M79 Osa rocket launcher, the RPG-22, the M-60 recoilless rifle and the RBG-6 multiple grenade launcher. The Syrian government has also released videos of these weapons after seizing them in arms caches. What is so interesting about these weapons is that they were not in the Syrian military's inventory prior to the crisis, and they all likely were purchased from Croatia. We have also seen many reports and photos of Syrian rebels carrying Austrian Steyr Aug rifles, and the Swiss government has complained that Swiss-made hand grenades sold to the United Arab Emirates are making their way to the Syrian rebels.
With the Syrian rebel groups using predominantly second-hand weapons from the region, weapons captured from the regime, or an assortment of odd ordnance they have manufactured themselves, the appearance and spread of these exogenous weapons in rebel arsenals over the past several months is at first glance evidence of external arms supply. The appearance of a single Steyr Aug or RBG-6 on the battlefield could be an interesting anomaly, but the variety and concentration of these weapons seen in Syria are well beyond the point where they could be considered coincidental.
This means that the current level of external intervention in Syria is similar to the level exercised against the Soviet Union and its communist proxies following the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. The external supporters are providing not only training, intelligence and assistance, but also weapons -- exogenous weapons that make the external provision of weapons obvious to the world. It is also interesting that in Syria, like Afghanistan, two of the major external supporters are Washington and Riyadh -- though in Syria they are joined by regional powers such as Turkey, Jordan, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, rather than Pakistan.
In Afghanistan, the Saudis and the Americans allowed their partners in Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency to determine which of the myriad militant groups in Afghanistan received the bulk of the funds and weapons they were providing. This resulted in two things. First, the Pakistanis funded and armed groups that they thought they could best use as surrogates in Afghanistan after the Soviet withdrawal. Second, they pragmatically tended to funnel cash and weapons to the groups that were the most successful on the battlefield -- groups such as those led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Jalaluddin Haqqani, whose effectiveness on the battlefield was tied directly to their zealous theology that made waging jihad against the infidels a religious duty and death during such a struggle the ultimate accomplishment.
A similar process has been taking place for nearly two years in Syria. The opposition groups that have been the most effective on the battlefield have tended to be the jihadist-oriented groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra. Not surprisingly, one reason for their effectiveness was the skills and tactics they learned fighting the coalition forces in Iraq. Yet despite this, the Saudis -- along with the Qataris and the Emiratis -- have been arming and funding the jihadist groups in large part because of their success on the battlefield. As my colleague Kamran Bokhari noted in February 2012, the situation in Syria was providing an opportunity for jihadists, even without external support. In the fractured landscape of the Syrian opposition, the unity of purpose and battlefield effectiveness of the jihadists was in itself enough to ensure that these groups attracted a large number of new recruits.
But that is not the only factor conducive to the radicalization of Syrian rebels. First, war -- and particularly a brutal, drawn-out war -- tends to make extremists out of the fighters involved in it. Think Stalingrad, the Cold War struggles in Central America or the ethnic cleansing in the Balkans following the dissolution of Yugoslavia; this degree of struggle and suffering tends to make even non-ideological people ideological. In Syria, we have seen many secular Muslims become stringent jihadists. Second, the lack of hope for an intervention by the West removed any impetus for maintaining a secular narrative. Many fighters who had pinned their hopes on NATO were greatly disappointed and angered that their suffering was ignored. It is not unusual for Syrian fighters to say something akin to, "What has the West done for us? We now have only God."
When these ideological factors were combined with the infusion of money and arms that has been channeled to jihadist groups in Syria over the past year, the growth of Syrian jihadist groups accelerated dramatically. Not only are they a factor on the battlefield today, but they also will be a force to be reckoned with in the future.

The Saudi Gambit

Despite the jihadist blowback the Saudis experienced after the end of the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan -- and the current object lesson of the jihadists Syria sent to fight U.S. forces in Iraq now leading groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra -- the Saudi government has apparently calculated that its use of jihadist proxies in Syria is worth the inherent risk.
There are some immediate benefits for Riyadh. First, the Saudis hope to be able to break the arc of Shiite influence that reaches from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. Having lost the Sunni counterweight to Iranian power in the region with the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and the installation of a Shiite-led government friendly to Iran, the Saudis view the possibility of installing a friendly Sunni regime in Syria as a dramatic improvement to their national security.
Supporting the jihad in Syria as a weapon against Iranian influence also gives the Saudis a chance to burnish their Islamic credentials internally in an effort to help stave off criticism that they are too secular and Westernized. It allows the Saudi regime the opportunity to show that it is helping Muslims under assault by the vicious Syrian regime.
Supporting jihadists in Syria also gives the Saudis an opportunity to ship their own radicals to Syria, where they can fight and possibly die. With a large number of unemployed, underemployed and radicalized young men, the jihad in Syria provides a pressure valve similar to the past struggles in Iraq, Chechnya, Bosnia and Afghanistan. The Saudis are not only trying to winnow down their own troubled youth; we have received reports from a credible source that the Saudis are also facilitating the travel of Yemeni men to training camps in Turkey, where they are trained and equipped before being sent to Syria to fight. The reports also indicate that the young men are traveling for free and receiving a stipend for their service. These young radicals from Saudi Arabia and Yemen will even further strengthen the jihadist groups in Syria by providing them with fresh troops.
The Saudis are gaining temporary domestic benefits from supporting jihad in Syria, but the conflict will not last forever, nor will it result in the deaths of all the young men who go there to fight. This means that someday the men who survive will come back home, and through the process we refer to as "tactical Darwinism" the inept fighters will have been weeded out, leaving a core of competent militants that the Saudis will have to deal with.
But the problems posed by jihadist proxies in Syria will have effects beyond the House of Saud. The Syrian jihadists will pose a threat to the stability of Syria in much the same way the Afghan groups did in the civil war they launched for control of Afghanistan after the fall of the Najibullah regime. Indeed, the violence in Afghanistan got worse after Najibullah's fall in 1992, and the suffering endured by Afghan civilians in particular was egregious.
Now we are seeing that the jihadist militants in Libya pose a threat not only to the Libyan regime -- there are serious problems in eastern Libya -- but also to foreign interests in the country, as seen in the attack on the British ambassador and the U.S. diplomatic mission in Benghazi. Moreover, the events in Mali and Algeria in recent months show that Libya-based militants and the weapons they possess also pose a regional threat. Similar long-lasting and wide-ranging repercussions can be expected to flow from the intervention in Syria.

EUA: uma grande provincia petrolifera? - Der Spiegel

Full Throttle Ahead: US Tips Global Power Scales with Fracking

By SPIEGEL Staff - February 1, 2013
Photo Gallery: Natural Gas Boom Redistributes Global Power
Photos
DPA
The United States is sitting on massive natural gas and oil reserves that have the potential to shift the geopolitical balance in its favor. Worries are increasing in Russia and the Arab states of waning influence and falling market prices.
Williston, North Dakota, is a bleak little city in the vast American prairie. It's dusty in the summer and frigid in the winter. Moose hunting is one of the few sources of entertainment. But despite its drawbacks, Williston has seen its population more than double within a short period of time.
ANZEIGE
The city is so overcrowded that new arrivals often have no place to stay but in their motor homes, which, at monthly parking fees of $1,200 (€880), isn't exactly inexpensive. And more people continue to arrive in this nondescript little town. The reason for the influx is simple: Geologists have discovered a layer of shale saturated with natural gas and oil deep beneath the city. The Bakken formation, spanning thousands of square kilometers, has become synonymous with an American economic miracle that the country hasn't experienced since the oil rush almost 100 years ago.
North Dakota now has virtual full employment, and the state budget showed an estimated surplus of $1.6 billion in 2012. Truck drivers in the state make $100,000 a year, while the strippers being brought in from Las Vegas rake in more than $1,000 a night. President Barack Obama calls the discovery of Bakken and similar shale gas formations in Texas, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Louisiana and Utah a "stroke of luck," saying: "We have a hundred years' worth of energy right beneath our feet."
A Vital Nerve
The future of the American energy supply was looking grim until recently. With its own resources waning, the United States was dependent on Arab oil sheiks and erratic dictators. Rising energy costs were hitting a vital nerve in the country's industrial sector.
But the situation has fundamentally changed since American drilling experts began using a method called "fracking," with which oil and gas molecules can be extracted from dense shale rock formations. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the United States will replace Russia as the world's largest producer of natural gas in only two years. The Americans could also become the world's top petroleum producers by 2017.
Low natural gas prices -- the price of natural gas in the United States is only a quarter of what it was in 2008 -- could fuel a comeback of American industry. "Low-cost natural gas is the elixir, the sweetness, the juice, the Viagra," an American industry representative told the business magazine Fortune. "What it's doing is changing the US back into the industrial power of the day." The government estimates that the boom could generate 600,000 new jobs, and some experts even believe that up to 3 million new jobs could be created in the coming years. "My administration will take every possible action to safely develop this energy," Obama said during his most recent State of the Union address.
Shifting Calculations
The gas revolution is changing the political balance of power all over the world. Americans and Russians have waged wars, and they have propped up or toppled regimes, over oil and gas. When the flows of energy change, the strategic and military calculations of the major powers do as well.
It is still unclear who the winners and losers will be. The Chinese and the Argentines also have enormous shale gas reserves. Experts believe that Poland, France and Germany have significant resources, although no one knows exactly how significant. Outside the United States, extraction is still in its infancy.
The outlines of a changed world order are already emerging in the simulations of geo-strategists. They show that the United States will benefit the most from the development of shale gas and oil resources. A study by Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the BND, concludes that Washington's discretionary power in foreign and security policy will increase substantially as a result of the country's new energy riches.

According to the BND study, the political threat potential of oil producers like Iran will decline. Optimists assume that, in about 15 years, the United States will no longer have to send any aircraft carriers to the Persian Gulf to guarantee that oil tankers can pass unhindered through the Strait of Hormuz, still the most important energy bottleneck in the world. The Russians could be on the losing end of the stick. The power of President Vladimir Putin is based primarily on oil and gas revenues. If energy prices decline in the long term, bringing down Russian revenues from the energy sector, Putin's grip on power could begin to falter. The Americans' sudden oil and gas riches are also not very good news for authoritarian regimes in the Middle East.
European industry is also likely to benefit from falling world market prices for oil and gas. But according to prognoses, without domestic extraction the Europeans' site-specific advantages deteriorate.
German chemical giant BASF has already invested a lot of money in the United States in the last two years. In Louisiana, for example, it has built new plants for the production of methyl amines and formic acid. "The local natural gas price is a criterion that affects the question of where we invest in new production facilities," says BASF Executive Board member Harald Schwager. At the moment, the United States has a clear advantage over Europe in this regard."
German Reservations
So far, the political debate in Germany has been dominated by concerns over adverse environmental effects. Fracking has become a dirty word for citizens' initiatives and environmental groups.
The concept of pumping water laced with chemicals into the earth at high pressures to crack open layers of rock several thousand meters beneath the surface makes many citizens uneasy, even though the technology has, in principle, already been used for decades in conventional gas extraction in the northern German state of Lower Saxony.
At the same time, Germany's energy and climate policy would in fact be a reason to use the new gas reserves. Flexible gas power plants would be the best approach to offsetting unpredictable fluctuations in wind and solar electricity, thereby maintaining a reliable power supply. Besides, burning natural gas generates up to 60 percent less climate-damaging CO2 than burning coal.
With the help of natural gas, the Americans have been able to reduce their CO2 emissions associated with energy production to the lowest level in years. This is one of the reasons the country plans to replace one in six coal-fired power plants with gas power plants by 2020.
At the Munich Security Conference this weekend, fracking will be at the top of the agenda for the first time. In fact, one of the agenda items is called "The American Oil and Gas Bonanza." In past years, nuclear weapons and threats from international terror were discussed at the conference, but this year one of the hot topics is the "Changing Geopolitics of Energy." This shows how important the issue has become. "It is perhaps a permissible exaggeration to claim a natural gas revolution," John Deutch, a former undersecretary at the Energy Department and CIA director, and now a professor at the elite Massachusetts Institute of Technology, recently wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine. Deutch has been monitoring the development for years.
America 's Energy Miracle
In the late 1990s, American oil and gas companies used new technologies to advance into previously unexplored layers of the earth. They drill up to 4,000 meters (13,123 feet) into the shale, then make a sharp turn and continue to drill horizontally. Then they inject a mixture of water, chemicals and sand into the drilled well at high pressure. This creates small fractures in the surrounding rock, allowing gas and oil to be released and rise to the surface through pipes.
New technologies are drastically reducing drilling costs. In 2012, shale gas already made up 34 percent of total production, and the technology is constantly improving. The sector is booming, and there are dozens of new companies searching for additional, previously undiscovered deposits.
In the future, the United States could even go from being a net energy importer to a net exporter. But that would require a true policy shift. Since the oil shock of the 1970s, the export of domestic petroleum resources has been banned in the United States. Many companies also have an interest in keeping as much of the cheap natural gas in the country as possible, as it provides them with a competitive advantage over foreign competitors.
According to a study, lower natural gas prices last year created a benefit worth more than $100 billion for US industry. "The country has stumbled into a windfall on the backs of these entrepreneurs," says study co-author Professor Edward Hirs of the University of Houston.
And perhaps things will indeed improve substantially. The US government has identified a new deposit in Utah, although additional major advances in technology are needed to make extraction economically viable. The Utah deposit contains an estimated 1.5 trillion barrels of extractable oil, or as much as the world's entire proven oil reserves to date.
Russia on the Losing End
A building in the southwestern section of Moscow juts into the sky like a rocket. The architectural message of the headquarters of energy giant Gazprom, which towers over everything else around it, is clear: The only way is up. Until recently, there was still an overwhelming consensus that nuclear weapons and energy commodities like oil and gas are the two currencies that gave a country its superpower status. Russia, the world's largest exporter of natural resources, has both in abundance.
President Putin built his dominance at home and his foreign policy on Russia's wealth of natural resources. Oil and gas revenues make up about 50 percent of the national budget. The president needs Gazprom's billions in revenues to keep his supporters, mostly government employees, retirees, blue-collar workers and farmers, happy with expensive social benefits. Gas also plays a central role in the plan to expand Russia's sphere of influence into the former Soviet republics. But now the American natural resources boom threatens Putin's dreams of an imperial resurrection of his country. It is already struggling with falling gas prices. Gazprom's operating profit shrank by more than 25 percent in the first nine months of 2012.
The Russians are now forced to give their customers, like Germany's E.on and Italian energy company Eni, discounts in the billions. Still, the Europeans are reorienting themselves. In the first three quarters of 2912, Gazprom sales fell by 43 percent in the Netherlands, 30 percent in Slovakia and 20 percent in France.