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Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;
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terça-feira, 17 de agosto de 2010
Os banqueiros votam em Dilma (nao sei o que dirao os companheiros)
Não sei o que diriam os companheiros a esse respeito, eles que tanto odiavam os banqueiros e outros representantes do grande capital.
Pior ainda, vários desses banqueiros fazem parte daquilo que os petistas, naquela linguagem antiga, antiquada e portanto anacrônica, sempre chamaram de capital monopolista financeiro internacional, ou seja, a pior espécie de banqueiro que possa existir, aqueles vampiros sugadores da seiva financeira dos países explorados e periféricos como o nosso.
Pois bem, esse pessoal detestável está agora, de corpo e alma, com os seus bolsos cheios, se ouso dizer, com a candidata oficial, a sucessora do grande benefactor, o homem que deu aos banqueiros muito mais que eles poderiam desejar.
Aqui vai portanto o relatório dos banqueiros internacionais sobre o processo eleitoral (suponho que os companheiros não se incomodarão com essa intervenção estrangeira nos assuntos internos do Brasil).
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Brazil - We expect Mrs. Rousseff to win in the first round
Citi: Emerging Markets Daily, Latin American Edition, 17 August 2010
Brazil – We expect Mrs. Rousseff to win in the first round. We now expect the government-backed presidential candidate to win in the first round given the latest round of opinion polls and our 2H'10 activity outlook. (p. 4)
Latest round of opinion polls show the government-backed candidate is ahead in voting intention. According to Datafolha institute, Dilma Rousseff leads polls with 41% of voting intention, whereas Jose Serra has 33%. The previous Datafolha poll, on July 23, showed a technical tie, as Mrs. Rousseff had 36% and Mr. Serra, 37%.In third-place, Marina Silva’s voting intention remained at 10%. On the spontaneous survey, without mentioning the candidates’ names in the questionnaire, voting intention for Mrs. Rousseff’s increased to 26% from 21% and Mr. Serra remained at 16%. Simulations of a runoff between these two candidates also showed the same trend, as Mrs. Rousseff reached 49% while Mr. Serra came at 41%. Regarding rejection rates, Mrs. Rousseff is also in a more comfortable position, as she scored 20% while 28% reject Mr. Serra.
Overall, Mrs. Rousseff’s popularity has been on a steady upward trend whereas the opposition candidate’s has remained stable until July and now seems to be experiencing a slight downward trend.
Governor elections are favoring Mrs. Rousseff. The Datafolha polls for regional elections showed that candidates from within Mrs. Rousseff’s alliance are leading in vote intention. Strong results in local elections tend to be positive for presidential candidates and the Datafolha survey seems to reinforce this view.
In the Northeastern region, where the income transfer programs are more widespread, voting intention for Mrs. Rousseff’s stands at 49%, while Mr. Serra has 25%. In the Southeastern region − the most relevant as it encompasses the states of São Paulo (SP), Rio de Janeiro (RJ) and Minas Gerais (MG) − Mr. Serra is now trailing Mrs. Rousseff (35% vs. 37%). The latter, considering the PMDB’s strong showings in MG and RJ, where the candidates likely to win in the first round, are supporting the government-backed candidate. Finally, in the Southern region, Mr. Serra holds the lead with 41% vs. Mrs. Rousseff’s 34%.
President Lula’s influence in the campaign has been remarkable and we believe there is more to come. President Lula has pushed hard for connecting his image to Mrs. Rousseff’s, in order to transfer some of his popularity over to her.
His first step was to tag her as the “mother of the PAC” (Growth Accelerating Program). In the Datafolha poll, 42% answered that the President’s support would be key in the voting definition, while an additional 22% declared they would take such information into account. Finally, 29% disregarded the President’s support as playing any role in the voting decision. In addition, the Datafolha poll showed that 7% did not know that Mrs. Rousseff is President Lula’s candidate and would be certain to vote for the President-backed candidate. This could be considered as an additional upside for Mrs. Rousseff, which could eventually lead to a first-round definition. Moreover, President
Lula managed to keep his record-high approval rating at 77%, while only 4% regard his administration as bad.
We now believe the presidential elections will be decided in the first round. We held a view of a tight race all the way trough the first round, with a bias toward Mrs. Rousseff’s victory. We are now changing this view to a Rousseff victory in the first round. Mrs. Rousseff needs only three more points to finish off the race, because in the ballot only the valid votes are taken into account. The latest poll showed 5% of invalid votes (null and blank votes). Therefore, she already has 47% of the valid votes. The above-mentioned aspects of the latest Datafolha poll are already self-assuring but there is more. Previous elections indicate a small effect from media campaign, which is to begin this week on Tuesday August 17. Leaders in polls ahead of the TV and radio campaigns usually remain in that place throughout the first round. Finally, the economic deceleration in 2Q’10 was temporary and the labor market conditions continued to improve while consumption resumed the upward trend, according to the latest retail sales results. Overall, these are all signs supporting Mrs. Rousseff’s candidacy and making Mr. Serra's task of reaching the runoff evermore difficult.